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Outline
This study applied the IPCC methodology to estimate carbon emissions in Shanxi Province from 2010 to 2022. A Kaya-LMDI model was employed to identify the key drivers influencing carbon emissions in the region. Using 2022 as the baseline year, the LEAP-Shanxi model was developed to forecast carbon emissions from 2023 to 2060. Economic development acted as the primary driver of carbon emission growth, whereas energy intensity emerged as the dominant restraining factor; By 2060, under four specific scenarios—industrial energy efficiency improvement, low-carbon transportation transition, accelerated new energy adoption, and optimized power structure—energy conservation and carbon reduction effects would become particularly pronounced, these measures could reduce sectoral emissions by 42.16, 3.21, 1.38 and 31.73Mt respectively; Both baseline and integrated scenarios indicate that Shanxi Province could reach its carbon peak by 2030, with projected emissions of 764.33 and 742.34Mt respectively; The comprehensive scenario demonstrates a potential reduction of 107.42Mt in carbon emissions compared to the baseline projections for 2060. These findings can offer a robust theoretical foundation for Shanxi Province to develop targeted low-carbon strategies and implement effective emission reduction measures.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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