This study investigated the spatial and temporal characteristics of carbon emissions and carbon sinks in the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration from 2007 to 2022. In addition, it examined the types of carbon balance across cities within this urban agglomeration. The characteristics of the spatial and temporal dynamics of the carbon balance capacity were described using the ecological support coefficient of carbon emissions, the standard deviation ellipse, and the center of the gravity migration model. The spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the driving factors was explored using a spatial and temporal geographic weighting model. The findings were as follows. Carbon emissions fluctuated and increased from 128,815,700 tons in 2007 to 385,707,600 tons in 2022, with an average annual growth rate of 7.59%. The change in the carbon sink was smaller, increasing from 18,857,800 tons in 2007 to 21,761,100 tons in 2022, with an average annual growth rate of 0.10%. Cultivated land and forestland accounted for 82.56% and 17.01%, respectively, of the carbon sink, which was the main land type affecting the carbon sink level. The spatial difference in the carbon balance capacity was obvious, characterized by high values in the northwest and low values in the east. The standard deviation ellipse revealed a northwest southeast distribution pattern, with the center of gravity shifting eastward. There were significant differences in the driving factors of the carbon balance capacity. The influence of socioeconomic factors such as energy intensity, industrial structure, gross regional product, urbanization level and population density were the most significant, followed by the influence of climatic conditions such as precipitation and temperature. The influence of governance factors such as environmental regulation and green innovation were not significant. This study underscored the importance of developing differentiated strategies from the perspectives of carbon reduction in production and carbon sequestration in ecology.