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Multi scale prediction of regional ozone concentration considering economic activity intensity
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Ming-dong JIANG1, Xin-yang WANG2, Rong YAN3, Xin-xin YU4, Ze-peng WU5, *
China Environmental Science | 2025, 45(9) : 4737 - 4748
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China Environmental Science | 2025, 45(9): 4737-4748
• Ozone Pollution Control •
Multi scale prediction of regional ozone concentration considering economic activity intensity
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Ming-dong JIANG1, Xin-yang WANG2, Rong YAN3, Xin-xin YU4, Ze-peng WU5, *
Affiliations
  • 1.Department of Public Administration, Yangtze River Delta Carbon Neutrality Strategy Development Institute, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China
  • 2.College of Business and Economics, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia 2601
  • 3.Green and Low-carbon Development Institute, Yancheng Institute of Technology, Yancheng 224051, China
  • 4.School of Ecology and Environment, Renmin University of China, Beijing100872, China
  • 5.College of Environmental Sciences and Technology, Peking University, Beijing100871, China
Published: 2025-09-20
Outline
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In this study, nighttime light intensity was adopted as a proxy for economic activity, and a random forest model was constructed to integrate both anthropogenic and meteorological factors for O3 concentration prediction. Panel data from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas (the "2+26" cities) during 2014~2022 were employed to empirically examine the differential contributions of economic activity intensity across various temporal scales, spatial regions, and pollutant types. The findings showed that:①economic activity intensity consistently exhibited significant predictive power across different temporal scales. On the annual scale, its importance reached 0.7053, surpassing all meteorological variables and becoming the dominant predictor. In contrast, on the daily scale, temperature and other meteorological factors were found to be more influential, with the contribution of economic activity reduced to 0.0869. ②Marked spatial heterogeneity was observed between high- and low- O3 concentration areas. Temperature and economic activity had stronger impacts in high- O3 regions, while low-concentration regions displayed irregular and spatially discontinuous patterns of predictor relevance. ③ Over long time horizons, economic activity was identified as a decisive factor in explaining both PM2.5 and O3 concentrations. However, on shorter time scales, although economic activity was the second most important factor for PM2.5 prediction after temperature, its contribution to O3 prediction remained relatively limited.

random forest model  /  ozone (O3)  /  fine particulate matter (PM2.5)  /  meteorological factors  /  nighttime light  /  pollution prediction  /  "2+26"urban agglomeration
姜明栋, 王馨阳, 颜蓉, 于欣鑫, 毋泽鹏. 考虑经济活动强度的区域臭氧浓度多尺度预测. 中国环境科学, 2025 , 45 (9) : 4737 -4748 .
Ming-dong JIANG, Xin-yang WANG, Rong YAN, Xin-xin YU, Ze-peng WU. Multi scale prediction of regional ozone concentration considering economic activity intensity[J]. China Environmental Science, 2025 , 45 (9) : 4737 -4748 .
Year 2025 volume 45 Issue 9
57
17
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Article Info
  • Receive Date:2025-02-18
  • Online Date:2026-10-08
  • Published:2025-09-20
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  • Received:2025-02-18
Funding
Affiliations
    1.Department of Public Administration, Yangtze River Delta Carbon Neutrality Strategy Development Institute, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China
    2.College of Business and Economics, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia 2601
    3.Green and Low-carbon Development Institute, Yancheng Institute of Technology, Yancheng 224051, China
    4.School of Ecology and Environment, Renmin University of China, Beijing100872, China
    5.College of Environmental Sciences and Technology, Peking University, Beijing100871, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
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Percentage of
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种数
Number of
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Percentage of total
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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