Based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2021, this paper uses the coupling coordination degree model, local spatial autocorrelation analysis, and system GMM regression method to systematically examine the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the coupling coordination level between China's new quality productivity and carbon emissions. The study found that the annual average of the new quality productivity index increased from 0.1 to 0.23, and the carbon emission intensity decreased from 2.548 to 1.942, indicating a continuous improvement in the synergy level between the two. The coupling coordination degree shows a gradient differentiation of "high in the southeast and low in the northwest". Eastern coastal provinces have risen to high-quality coordination based on digital economy and green technology innovation, while northern energy bases have long been in low value agglomeration due to the "high carbon low efficiency" path dependence. Economic development, opening up to the outside world, and innovation levels significantly promote the improvement of coordination, while environmental regulations have a restraining effect due to the "compliance cost squeeze". Regional heterogeneity analysis shows that the eastern region strengthens technology spillover through global value chain embedding, the northeast is constrained by structural contradictions in heavy industry, and the western region suppresses innovation diffusion due to geographical decline and lagging infrastructure.