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Based on the STELLA platform, a system dynamic model was constructed based on technology iteration, service life, and other influencing factors. This model systematically analyzed and simulated wind turbine waste generation under various scenarios, while quantifying the recycling scale of wind turbine waste and its potential carbon emission reduction effects. The results showed that: (1) Under the design lifetime scenario, the new-installed capacity of wind turbines in China were found to be increasing rapidly from 2006 to 2038, reached a trough in 2047, and then increased again. The scale of wind turbine scrapping was rising rapidly, and the peak time of wind turbines wastes with different unit capacities gradually occurred later as the unit capacity increased. (2) Under the design lifetime scenario, the amounts of waste generation components of wind turbines in 2060 were identified as follows: steel(13.67 million tons), aluminum (197200 tons), copper (762300 tons), plastic (137700 tons), fiberglass (1.7644 million tons), electronic devices (162300 tons), permanent magnets (27700 tons), lubricating oil (11000 tons), and concrete (34.76 million tons), respectively. (3) From 2025 to 2060, the cumulative closed-loop recycling of decommissioned wind turbine materials could meet 49.46%, 41.13%, and 32.67% of the total material demand under the short lifetime, design lifetime, and the long lifetime scenario, respectively. The cumulative carbon emission reductions from 2025 to 2060 with 100% resource utilization of steel, aluminum, copper and permanent magnets in scrapped wind turbines under the short lifetime, design lifetime, and the long lifetime scenario were calculated as 246.54 million tons, 175.95 million tons and 122.18 million tons respectively. Extending the wind turbine lifespan, establishing and improving the recycling system for wind power equipment, strengthening the resource recycling capabilities, and promoting advanced recycling technologies such as steel remanufacturing would reduce greenhouse gas emissions effectively. These efforts are considered significant in achieving China’s goals of peak energy production before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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