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Simulation and prediction of construction and demolition waste from urban and rural housing in Beijing based on dynamic material flow analysis
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Li DONG1, Jing-yang LIU1, Ze-qian ZHANG1, *, Min ZHANG2
China Environmental Science | 2025, 45(4) : 2041 - 2052
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China Environmental Science | 2025, 45(4): 2041-2052
Solid Waste
Simulation and prediction of construction and demolition waste from urban and rural housing in Beijing based on dynamic material flow analysis
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Li DONG1, Jing-yang LIU1, Ze-qian ZHANG1, *, Min ZHANG2
Affiliations
  • 1.Key Laboratory of Eco-industry of Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
  • 2.School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China
Published: 2025-04-20
Outline
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To promote the reduction and recycling of construction and demolition (C&D) waste in housing, a dynamic material flow model was established to simulate the evolving characteristics of housing flow-stock in both urban and rural areas of Beijing from 1949 to 2100. The amount of urban and rural housing C&D waste generated was predicted. The results showed that from 1949 to 2100, cyclical fluctuations were observed in the volume of new construction and demolition of housing in Beijing’s urban and rural areas, with the housing stock following an S-shaped curve. The area of new housing construction in urban and rural regions peaked at 31.456million m2 in 2012 and 7.887 million m2 in 2015, while the demolition area reached its maximum of 15.008 million m2 in 2094 and 4.535 million m2 in 2016. The saturation values of housing stock in urban and rural areas were 800 and 1.247 million m2, respectively. By the mid-to-late 21 st century, Beijing was anticipated to experience a surge in C&D waste generation, which will reach its peak and then persist at elevated levels with periodic fluctuations. The apex of C&D waste generation was projected to occur in 2094, with an estimated total output of 23.964 million tons. Cement, brick, sand, and gravel were the predominant components of C&D waste by weight, accounting for 90.2%~95.5% of the total weight of housing C&D waste in urban areas and 92.2%~94.1% of that in rural areas, while the weight proportion of iron and steel ranged from 0.1% to 4.5% and 0.1% to 3.0%, respectively. The long-lifetime scenario could defer the peak of C&D waste, with a maximum reduction potential of 72.0%. Additionally, recycling C&D waste as urban minerals could lead to a dramatic decrease in future demand for primary steel, with a reduction of up to 98.5%.

dynamic material flow analysis  /  flow-stock  /  material metabolism  /  construction and demolition waste  /  urban mining
Li DONG, Jing-yang LIU, Ze-qian ZHANG, Min ZHANG. Simulation and prediction of construction and demolition waste from urban and rural housing in Beijing based on dynamic material flow analysis[J]. China Environmental Science, 2025 , 45 (4) : 2041 -2052 .
Year 2025 volume 45 Issue 4
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Article Info
  • Receive Date:2024-09-03
  • Online Date:2026-03-19
  • Published:2025-04-20
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  • Received:2024-09-03
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Affiliations
    1.Key Laboratory of Eco-industry of Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China
    2.School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 611756, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
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Number of
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Number of
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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