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Analysis on the characteristics of synergistic reduction of CO2 and O3 precursors emissions in China under carbon-neutral scenario
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Yu-xiang JIN1, Xue-wei HOU1, *, Lei HONG2, Tian-liang ZHAO1, Yi-chao ZHOU1
China Environmental Science | 2025, 45(4) : 2230 - 2239
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China Environmental Science | 2025, 45(4): 2230-2239
• Carbon Emission Control •
Analysis on the characteristics of synergistic reduction of CO2 and O3 precursors emissions in China under carbon-neutral scenario
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Yu-xiang JIN1, Xue-wei HOU1, *, Lei HONG2, Tian-liang ZHAO1, Yi-chao ZHOU1
Affiliations
  • 1.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological Administration, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
  • 2.Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Nanjing 210000, China
Published: 2025-04-20
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The study investigates the spatio-temporal dynamics of anthropogenic emissions in China under a carbon-neutral scenario, with a focus on synergistic reductions in carbon dioxide (CO2), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and nitrogen oxides (NOx). Using the Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China (DPEC), emissions trends were analyzed and compared with two Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6). The findings reveal that under the DPEC carbon-neutral scenario, CO2 emissions will peak by 2030 and decrease by 91% by 2060 relative to 2020 levels. Emissions of VOCs and NOx show continuous reductions since 2020, with declines of 65% and 88%, respectively, by 2060. Compared to the two SSP scenarios, the DPEC scenario shows a weaker reduction in VOCs but a stronger reduction in NOx. Sectoral analysis highlights that CO2 reductions primarily stem from the energy and industrial sectors, whereas the transportation sector drives notable decreases in VOCs and NOx. By 2060, the industrial sector will remain the dominant source of emissions for CO2, VOCs, and NOx. The results suggest that the DPEC carbon-neutral scenario aligns closely with China's future emission reduction trends, demonstrating significant potential for synergistic emission reductions. Achieving these targets on schedule will require robust policy implementation and sectoral commitment, offering substantial improvements in air quality and environmental outcomes.

carbon-neutral scenario  /  anthropogenic emissions  /  DPEC  /  SSP
Yu-xiang JIN, Xue-wei HOU, Lei HONG, Tian-liang ZHAO, Yi-chao ZHOU. Analysis on the characteristics of synergistic reduction of CO2 and O3 precursors emissions in China under carbon-neutral scenario[J]. China Environmental Science, 2025 , 45 (4) : 2230 -2239 .
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Article Info
  • Receive Date：2024-10-10
  • Online Date：2026-03-19
  • Published：2025-04-20
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  • Received：2024-10-10
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Affiliations
    1.Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological Administration, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
    2.Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Nanjing 210000, China
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红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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