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We used the PLUS model to predict the land use pattern under different development scenarios in 2030 in the Loess Plateau, an important ecological barrier in China, and applied the InVEST-Geodector model to analyze the spatiotemporal changes and driving factors in ecosystem carbon storage from 2020 to 2030. The findings were as follows: (1) The area of cropland will decrease under the natural development and ecological protection scenarios; the area of grassland decreases significantly under the cropland protection scenario, and forests and waters are effectively protected under all three scenarios. (2) The ecosystem carbon storage under the natural development, ecological protection, and cropland protection scenarios is 4.922, 5.021, and 4.922Pg, respectively. Compared with those in 2020, carbon storage will increase by 8.07, 37.22, and 8.07Tg, respectively. Carbon storage has obvious spatial heterogeneity, with high carbon density in the northern Qinling Mountains, Taihang Mountains, and Lvliang Mountains and low carbon density in Erdos City and its surrounding areas. Changes in carbon storage are closely related to the changes in the number of land classes and conversion of land use types. In conclusion, the ecological protection scenario is more in line with the future development needs of the study area. (3) The core determinants of ecosystem carbon storage are slope and precipitation, and the dominating combinations of factors driving regional differences and changes in carbon storage are the interactions of slope, soil type, or average annual temperature content with other variables.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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