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Empirical evaluation and mechanism analysis of domestic carbon trading pilot policies on emission reduction
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Cao-cao CHEN1, *, Feng-ju YU1, Yue ZHANG1, Geng-yuan LIU2, Xin-shuang WANG1, Kai-yun ZHENG1, Jing HU1, Li-bo WANG1, Dan SONG1, Yong-feng HU1, Fen SUN1, Da-li SUN1, Ning MA1
China Environmental Science | 2025, 45(3) : 1674 - 1685
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China Environmental Science | 2025, 45(3): 1674-1685
Environmental Impact Assessment and Management
Empirical evaluation and mechanism analysis of domestic carbon trading pilot policies on emission reduction
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Cao-cao CHEN1, *, Feng-ju YU1, Yue ZHANG1, Geng-yuan LIU2, Xin-shuang WANG1, Kai-yun ZHENG1, Jing HU1, Li-bo WANG1, Dan SONG1, Yong-feng HU1, Fen SUN1, Da-li SUN1, Ning MA1
Affiliations
  • 1.Beijing Climate Change Management Centre, Beijing 100086, China
  • 2.State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Published: 2025-03-20
Outline
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This study utilizes panel data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2021. We treat the carbon trading policy as a quasi-natural experiment, and apply a multi-period difference-in-differences method to systematically evaluate its impact on carbon emissions. The results indicate that: after the introduction of the carbon trading policy, the total carbon emissions in the pilot regions decrease by 13.2%, while carbon intensity and per capita carbon emissions fall by 21.3% and 17.2%, respectively. The carbon trading policy significantly reduces carbon intensity in the pilot regions; however, the impacts on total carbon emissions and per capita emissions are not significant. Carbon reduction through trading primarily relies on improvements in industrial structure, with weaker mediation effects from carbon trading prices, market activity, and low-carbon technology. There may be complementary and synergistic effects among different policies. Although carbon trading plays a positive role in promoting carbon reduction, its synergistic effects on SO2, NOx and PM2.5 still need to be enhanced. These results provide important empirical support for understanding carbon trading policies and offer a scientific basis for refining the carbon trading system as well as guiding future adjustments and optimizations of carbon market policies.

carbon emission trading  /  multi-period difference-in-differences model  /  environmental impact  /  carbon neutral
Cao-cao CHEN, Feng-ju YU, Yue ZHANG, Geng-yuan LIU, Xin-shuang WANG, Kai-yun ZHENG, Jing HU, Li-bo WANG, Dan SONG, Yong-feng HU, Fen SUN, Da-li SUN, Ning MA. Empirical evaluation and mechanism analysis of domestic carbon trading pilot policies on emission reduction[J]. China Environmental Science, 2025 , 45 (3) : 1674 -1685 .
Year 2025 volume 45 Issue 3
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Article Info
  • Receive Date:2024-07-16
  • Online Date:2026-03-18
  • Published:2025-03-20
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  • Received:2024-07-16
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Affiliations
    1.Beijing Climate Change Management Centre, Beijing 100086, China
    2.State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

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Number of
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Number of
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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