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Construction of ecological safety threshold prediction model for metal elements in soils
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Wan-yang SHI1, Xue-dong WANG1, *, Jian-lin BIAN1, Meng-jia LI1, Yi-bing MA2
China Environmental Science | 2025, 45(1) : 253 - 264
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China Environmental Science | 2025, 45(1): 253-264
Soil Pollution Control
Construction of ecological safety threshold prediction model for metal elements in soils
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Wan-yang SHI1, Xue-dong WANG1, *, Jian-lin BIAN1, Meng-jia LI1, Yi-bing MA2
Affiliations
  • 1.College of Resources Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China
  • 2.Macao Environmental Research Institute, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macao 999078, China
Published: 2025-01-20
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This study collected 616 toxicological data of 8 elements on 5 species and 3 microbial processes in 31 Chinese soils through literature collection, attempting to construct a new model for predicting the toxicity of limited elements in soil data—the Quantitative ion characteristic activity relationship (s-QICAR) model. Firstly, based on the normalization method of soil properties, the toxicity values (logEC10; 1.42~3.35) of 8 elements to 5 species and 3 microbial processes were obtained under three soil scenarios of acidic, neutral, and alkaline. On this basis, the relationship between the 23 structural characteristic parameters of elements and their corresponding biological toxicity values was analyzed, and 24s-QICAR models (R2=0.70~0.98; P=0.001~0.023) were established using the covalent radius (CR) of elements. Furthermore, s-QICAR was used to predict the logEC10 (1.44~3.20) of V, As, Se, and Sn for 8species. Combined with the species sensitivity distribution curve, the HC5values of these four elements protecting 95% of organisms under three scenarios were calculated. After correction, the predicted no-effect concentrations of the four elements in acidic, neutral, and alkaline soil scenarios were V: 13, 16, 17mg/kg; As: 10, 13, 15mg/kg; Se: 4.9, 7.2, 8.4mg/kg; Sn: 42, 44, 45mg/kg, and the ecological risk threshold map for these 4elements was drawn. This study establishes a new method applicable to the ecological risk of soil elements in China, providing scientific basis for soil environmental risk assessment and management.

metal elements  /  quantitative ion character-activity relationships model  /  soil organisms  /  ecological risk
Wan-yang SHI, Xue-dong WANG, Jian-lin BIAN, Meng-jia LI, Yi-bing MA. Construction of ecological safety threshold prediction model for metal elements in soils[J]. China Environmental Science, 2025 , 45 (1) : 253 -264 .
Year 2025 volume 45 Issue 1
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  • Receive Date:2024-06-06
  • Online Date:2026-03-18
  • Published:2025-01-20
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  • Received:2024-06-06
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Affiliations
    1.College of Resources Environment and Tourism, Capital Normal University, Beijing 100048, China
    2.Macao Environmental Research Institute, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macao 999078, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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