To investigate the impact of activity frequency on the self-care ability of older adults in China, providing a reference for developing active aging strategies aligned with their activity patterns.

Data were drawn from the 2021 Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) covering 14 022 older adults aged ≥ 65 years in 27 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities). Multivariate ordinal logistic regression models were employed to analyze the associations between activity frequency and two functional outcomes: activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL).

Among the 14 022 participants, 9 474 (67.6%), 1 037 (7.4%), and 3 511 (25.0%) showed the ADL status of full independence, requiring partial assistance, and full dependence, respectively; 3 803 (27.1%), 2 104 (15.0%), and 8 115 (57.9%) exhibited the IADL status of full independence, requiring partial assistance, and full dependence, respectively. The activity frequency was low, moderate, and high in 2 830 (20.2%), 143 (1.0%), and 11 049 (78.8%) participants, respectively. After adjustment for sex, age, children′s financial support, marital status, residence, income adequacy, and pension insurance, multivariate ordinal logistic regression analysis revealed that compared with the low-frequency group, the moderate-frequency group had reduced risks of ADL impairment (OR = 0.309, 95%CI: 0.218–0.437) and IADL impairment (OR = 0.175, 95%CI: 0.110–0.280). Furthermore, compared with the low-frequency group, the high-frequency group had decreased risks of ADL impairment (OR = 0.142, 95%CI: 0.129–0.156) and IADL impairment (OR = 0.082, 95%CI: 0.067–0.100).

Increased activity frequency is associated with a reduced risk of ADL and IADL impairment among older adults in China, promoting greater independence.

To investigate the phase-specific impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on the transmission of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) and evaluate the applicability and dynamic responsiveness of different prediction models in an intervention context.

Monthly HFMD incidence data from 2014 to 2023 in Fengyang county, Anhui province, China were analyzed. Theil–Sen robust regression was employed to estimate the annual percent change (APC) and the average annual percent change (AAPC) before and after COVID-19. Baseline scheme (counterfactual stress test): the model was trained on the data from January 2014 to December 2019 and validated on the data from January 2020 to December 2023, without incorporating any pandemic intervention variables. Intervention scheme (adaptive prediction): the model was trained on the data from January 2014 to November 2022, incorporating phase-specific intervention dummy variables, and validated on the data from December 2022 to December 2023. The prediction performance of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous regressors (SARIMAX), Prophet (a time-series decomposable additive model), and long short-term memory (LSTM) was compared based on mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE). Two novel indices, the phase sensitivity index (PSI) and the resilience coefficient (REC), were proposed to assess model adaptability in terms of dynamic responsiveness and resistance to perturbations.

In the pre-pandemic period from 2014 to 2019, HFMD incidence declined (APC = −15.97%, 95%CI: −22.06% to −6.80%, P = 0.004). In the post-pandemic period from 2020 to 2023, it increased (APC = 36.17%, 95%CI: 8.84% to 54.72%, P = 0.002). Over the full period from 2014 to 2023, the overall trend still decreased (AAPC = −12.28%, 95%CI: −16.49% to −7.37%, P < 0.001). During the relaxation period from December 2022 to December 2023, the intervention scheme outperformed the baseline scheme in out-of-sample prediction: the MAPE of SARIMAX decreased from 73.77% to 44.54% (a reduction of 29.23 percentage points); the MAPE of LSTM decreased from 46.18% to 41.85%; whereas the MAPE of Prophet remained high at 69.73%. The PSI/REC indicated that the SARIMAX and Prophet intervention models were more sensitive to the transition from routine control to relaxation, with PSI greater than 1 and recovery within 1 month (REC equal to 1); LSTM showed a PSI close to 1 but slower recovery (REC equal to 0.33) in about 3 months.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions exert phase-specific effects on HFMD transmission with a risk of rebound. Statistical models and deep learning models are complementary for surveillance under intervention scenarios. Statistical models are sensitive to exogenous shocks and recover quickly, whereas deep learning models excel in short-term fitting but require enhanced generalization and adaptive updating after relaxation of control measures. Integrating multiple models is recommended to optimize infectious disease early warning systems under complex dynamics in the presence of interventions.

To estimate the risk of Vibrio parahaemolyticus-caused illness associated with the consumption of seafood in Hangzhou, and identify the key points for risk control, thereby providing evidence for adopting effective risk management measures.

The surveillance data of V. parahaemolyticus concentration in seafood in Hangzhou from 2011 to 2022 and Hangzhou residents′ seafood consumption data in 2015 were extracted. According to the growth model of V. parahaemolyticus and related parameters from scientific literature, the Monte Carlo simulation method was employed to analyze the change of V. parahaemolyticus concentration in seafood from market to table and quantify the exposure of V. parahaemolyticus in the residents by consuming seafood in Hangzhou. Finally, a dose-response model was adopted to assess the risk of gastroenteritis caused by V. parahaemolyticus.

The positive rate of V. parahaemolyticus in retail seafood in Hangzhou was 31.78% (90%CI: 28.38%–35.42%), with an initial contamination level of –0.20 (90%CI: –0.82 to 2.04) lg CFU/g. The average daily incidence risk of gastroenteritis caused by V. parahaemolyticus in seafood among residents was 1.93 × 10^–5 in Hangzhou. The number of people infected with V. parahaemolyticus per million residents per year due to seafood consumption was 7 044. The sensitivity analysis showed that the risk was mainly and positively correlated with the initial contamination level of V. parahaemolyticus in seafood and the transportation and storage temperature and time of seafood.

There is certain health risk due to the consumption of seafood in Hangzhou. The risk could be effectively reduced by controlling the contamination level of V. parahaemolyticus in retail seafood and strictly controlling the storage and transportation temperature and time of seafood.

To analyze the incidence trends of female breast cancer in the cancer registration areas of Nantong city, Jiangsu province from 2013 to 2022, thus providing a basis for developing prevention and control strategies for female breast cancer in this region.

Data of female breast cancer cases registered in Nantong city from 2013 to 2022 were collected from the tumor follow-up database. The urban/rural area-specific crude incidence rate, the age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population (ASIRC), and age-standardized incidence rate by world standard population (ASIRW) of female breast cancer were calculated. The crude incidence rate of female breast cancer in each age group was calculated. The Joinpoint model was used to estimate the annual average percentage change (AAPC) in these indicators for revealing the incidence trends of female breast cancer in selected areas with cancer registration in the city during this period.

In the cancer registration areas of Nantong city from 2013 to 2022, the crude incidence rate, ASIRC, and ASIRW (per 100 000) of female breast cancer were 53.83 (50.08 for urban population and 55.31 for rural population), 30.72 (28.97 for urban population and 31.43 for rural population), and 28.73 (27.20 for urban population and 29.33 rural population), respectively. The crude incidence rate, ASIRC, and ASIRW of female breast cancer in the total population and urban and rural areas showed upward trends (AAPC: 3.79%–5.96%, all P < 0.01), and the incidence rate of female breast cancer in rural areas showed a more significant upward trend. The incidence rates of female breast cancer in the age groups of 30–39 years, 40–49 years, 50–59 years, 60–69 years, and 70–79 years in the cancer registration areas all showed upward trends (AAPC: 3.44%–5.37%, all P < 0.01).

The incidence rate of female breast cancer in the cancer registration areas of Nantong city from 2013 to 2022 showed an upward trend. Special attention should be paid to the prevention and control of female breast cancer in rural areas. Women aged 30–79 years are the key population for breast cancer prevention and control in this region.

To examine the vaccination status of herpes zoster vaccine (HZV) and adverse events following immunization (AEFIs), thus providing evidence for the vaccination of HZV.

Two sets of data relevant to HZV vaccination in Pudong New Area of Shanghai from August 1, 2020 to July 31, 2024 were collected for statistical analysis, including information on HZV vaccination from the Pudong Immunization Program Integrated Management Cloud Platform and on AEFIs registered in the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention.

During the study period, 37 103 doses of HZV were totally vaccinated and 1 107 AEFIs were registered, with a reported AEFI incidence of 298.36/10 000 doses, 99.73% of which were common adverse reactions. The reported AEFI incidence of recombinant zoster vaccine (RZV) was 315.56/10 000 doses, which was higher than that (27.11/10 000 doses) of zoster vaccine live (ZVL). Among the receivers of RZV, females had higher reported AEFI incidence than males (348.58/10 000 doses vs. 254.05 /10 000 doses; χ² = 23.412, P < 0.001). The individuals of 50–59 years old had higher reported AEFI incidence than those of 60–69 years old and 70 years old (342.86 /10 000 doses vs. 304.07 /10 000 doses and 259.53 /10 000 doses, respectively; χ² = 9.574, P = 0.008). In addition, the reported AEFI incidence of the first dose was higher than that of the second dose (483.26/10 000 doses vs. 123.25/10 000 doses; χ² = 369.000, P < 0.001).

The reported HZV-related AEFIs were mainly common adverse reactions in Pudong New area, with no serious adverse reaction reported, which suggest good safety of HZV.

To understand the current situation of the prevention and control capabilities of sudden acute infectious diseases in health institutions in border and coastal provinces along the Belt and Road within China, thereby providing a basis for formulating prevention and control policies for these diseases.

Considering factors such as geographical regions, cross-border population flows, international trade activities, and historical risks of imported infectious diseases, a questionnaire survey was conducted in May to September 2019 for the health institutions of seven border or coastal provincial-level administrative regions: Inner Mongolia autonomous region, Liaoning province, Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, Yunnan province, Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region, Guangdong province, and Fujian province, from the 18 important provincial-level administrative regions in Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road. A total of 105 health institutions, encompassing 35 health administrative departments, 35 disease prevention and control institutions, and 35 medical institutions, filled out the questionnaires, and the information related to the prevention and control capabilities of sudden acute infectious diseases in different institutions was collected and analyzed.

The prevention and control capabilities of sudden acute infectious diseases of health institutions at the provincial, municipal, and county levels in the border and coastal provincial-level administrative regions along the Belt and Road within China showed a decreasing trend depending on the administrative level. There were significant gaps in the prevention and control capabilities of sudden acute infectious diseases among health administrative departments and disease prevention and control institutions at different levels, and the capabilities of institutions at the county level was weak. The gap in the capabilities among medical institutions at different levels was small. The assessment revealed uneven development across functional domains. Emergency response systems, rapid response teams, surveillance and risk assessment, and medical treatment were the advantageous areas in the prevention and control of infectious diseases. However, policy planning, emergency resource allocation, laboratory testing, and international cooperation were the weak links.

The prevention and control capabilities of sudden acute infectious diseases were weak in county-level health institutions of the border and coastal provincial-level administrative regions along the Belt and Road within China. It is necessary to focus on strengthening the capacity building at the primary level, particularly in key areas such as policy planning, emergency resource allocation, laboratory testing, and international cooperation.

To analyze the incidence and spatial clustering of anthrax in Gansu province from 2014 to 2023, and to provide evidence for anthrax prevention and control.

Data on 883 reported anthrax cases in Gansu province from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2023 were collected through the “Surveillance and Reporting Management” module of the China Disease Prevention and Control Information System. The Joinpoint regression model was employed to analyze the trend of anthrax incidence. ArcGIS 10.8.2 and FleXScan 3.1.2 were used for global spatial autocorrelation and spatial scanning, respectively.

From 2014 to 2023, a total of 883 skin anthrax cases were reported in Gansu province. The number of cases in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023 was 93, 104, 128, 117, 66, 41, 37, 84, 93, and 120, respectively. The incidences of anthrax were 0.36/100 000, 0.40/100 000, 0.49/100 000, 0.45/100 000, 0.25/100 000, 0.16/100 000, 0.14/100 000, 0.34/100 000, 0.35/100 000, and 0.48/100 000, respectively. The incidence increased first, subsequently decreased, and then increased, but the difference was not statistically significant (P > 0.05). Anthrax cases in Gansu province occurred throughout the year, and the peak of incidence occurred from July to October each year, when 501 cases were reported, accounting for 56.74% of the total number of anthrax cases. The ratio of male-to-female cases was 1.46:1. The disease predominantly affected young adults aged 20–49 (68.74%). The majority (82.33%) of cases occurred among herdsmen. The number of cases in Gannan prefecture ranked the first in the province (92.19%). The results of global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that there was certain spatial clustering of anthrax incidence in Gansu province from 2014 to 2023. The global Moran′s I indices in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023, were 0.438, 0.592, 0.590, 0.639, 0.577, 0.511, 0.530, 0.091, 0.565, and 0.357, respectively (all P < 0.05). FleXScan 3.1.2 software scanned 3 clusters, mainly located in some counties and districts of Gannan prefecture in the southwest of Gansu province and Dingxi city. The first-level cluster area included Maqu county, Luqu county, and Xiahe county in Gannan prefecture, mainly pastoral areas, accounting for 80.63% of the reported cases. Two secondary cluster areas were Hezuo city, Zhuoni county, and Diebu county in Gannan prefecture as well as Minxian county in Dingxi city and Lintan county in Gannan prefecture, accounting for 9.51% and 4.98% of cases, respectively.

The incidence of anthrax in Gansu province from 2014 to 2023 was high and has increased in the past three years. Males, young adults, and herdsmen were the key populations for anthrax prevention and control. The primary cluster areas concentrated in Maqu county, Luqu county, and Xiahe county of Gannan prefecture in the southwest of Gansu province. It is necessary to conduct comprehensive monitoring in the aforementioned counties.