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Prediction of factors associated with HIV testing willingness among middle-aged and elderly men in rural Sichuan province based on XGBoost and SHAP models
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Jin PENG1, Jiang YUAN2, Zhihua YE1, Jia HE1, Shuangru LI1, Shu LIANG3, Yinqing YANG1, Yi YANG1
Chinese Journal of Public Health | 2025, 41(12) : 1473 - 1480
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Chinese Journal of Public Health | 2025, 41(12): 1473-1480
• Epidemiological Research •
Prediction of factors associated with HIV testing willingness among middle-aged and elderly men in rural Sichuan province based on XGBoost and SHAP models
Full
Jin PENG1, Jiang YUAN2, Zhihua YE1, Jia HE1, Shuangru LI1, Shu LIANG3, Yinqing YANG1, Yi YANG1
Affiliations
  • 1School of Management/Sichuan Institute of Health, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu 611137, China
  • 2Public Health College of Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu 611137, China
  • 3Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu 610041, China
Published: 2025-12-10 doi: 10.11847/zgggws1146782
Outline
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Objective

To investigate the willingness of middle-aged and elderly men in rural Sichuan province to undergo human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) testing and its associated factors, providing references for promoting voluntary testing.

Methods

A face-to-face questionnaire survey was conducted among 990 middle-aged and elderly men in rural Sichuan from July to August 2023. The data on demographic characteristics, HIV testing willingness, and HIV prevention protection motivation were collected. LASSO and Boruta methods were used to screen relevant variables. An XGBoost model was employed to predict HIV testing willingness, with SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) for importance and interaction analyses.

Results

The middle-aged and elderly men in rural Sichuan showed the HIV testing willingness rate of 53.13% and the HIV knowledge awareness rate of 35.56%. Among them, 62.02% held an attitude of relative stigma toward AIDS, and 6.36% had previously undergone HIV testing. Lasso and Boruta identified 10 key variables from 22 independent variable candidates. The XGBoost model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.979 (95%CI: 0.963–0.995). SHAP importance analysis revealed the top five factors derived from protection motivation theory dimensions. The HIV testing willingness was positively associated with testing self-efficacy (SAV = 3.08), social support (SAV = 0.29), and awareness of HIV-related services (SAV = 0.27), and negatively associated with behavioral costs (SAV = 0.22) and external rewards (SAV = 0.20). Factors such as unmarried status, lack of HIV knowledge, and previous experience of HIV testing were primarily associated with willingness, while 45–49 years and high school/vocational school or above were mainly associated with unwillingness.

Conclusions

Middle-aged and elderly men in rural Sichuan exhibit low willingness to undergo HIV testing, which is primarily associated with insufficient HIV knowledge, inadequate social support, and prevalent AIDS-related stigma. Enhancing the awareness of testing experiences may encourage testing uptake.

human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)  /  testing willingness  /  protection motivation theory  /  machine learning  /  middle-aged and elderly men  /  rural areas
彭瑾, 袁将, 叶志华, 何佳, 李双如, 梁姝, 杨胤清, 杨义. 四川省农村地区中老年男性HIV检测意愿影响相关因素预测分析:基于XGBoost和SHAP模型. 中国公共卫生, 2025 , 41 (12) : 1473 -1480 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1146782
Jin PENG, Jiang YUAN, Zhihua YE, Jia HE, Shuangru LI, Shu LIANG, Yinqing YANG, Yi YANG. Prediction of factors associated with HIV testing willingness among middle-aged and elderly men in rural Sichuan province based on XGBoost and SHAP models[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2025 , 41 (12) : 1473 -1480 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1146782
Year 2025 volume 41 Issue 12
93
41
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Article Info
doi: 10.11847/zgggws1146782
  • Receive Date:2024-12-26
  • Online Date:2026-10-25
  • Published:2025-12-10
Article Data
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History
  • Received:2024-12-26
  • Revised:2025-03-30
  • Accepted:2025-08-26
Affiliations
    1School of Management/Sichuan Institute of Health, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu 611137, China
    2Public Health College of Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu 611137, China
    3Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu 610041, China

Corresponding:

YANG Yinqing, E-mail:
YANG Yi, E-mail:
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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