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Age-period-cohort analysis of early syphilis in Shandong province from 2006 to 2020
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Zhenghao WU, Yu DONG, Xinyu CAI, Fengyue ZHANG, Hongqing LIU
Chinese Journal of Public Health | 2025, 41(4) : 477 - 482
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Chinese Journal of Public Health | 2025, 41(4): 477-482
• Survey and Report •
Age-period-cohort analysis of early syphilis in Shandong province from 2006 to 2020
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Zhenghao WU, Yu DONG, Xinyu CAI, Fengyue ZHANG, Hongqing LIU
Affiliations
  • School of Public Health, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang 261053, Shandong, China
Published: 2025-04-10 doi: 10.11847/zgggws1145773
Outline
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Objective

To investigate the incidence and trends of early syphilis in Shandong province and provide references for syphilis prevention and control.

Methods

Data for this study were obtained from the China Public Health Science Data Center. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze trends in incidence rates, and age-period-cohort (APC) models were used to analyze the effects of age, period, and birth cohort.

Results

From 2006 to 2020, the incidence of early syphilis in Shandong province initially increased and then decreased. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) for primary and secondary syphilis was 6.02% and 6.25%, respectively. The proportion of cases in the 0–19 and ≥60 age groups has been increasing. Age-period-cohort analysis showed that the 20–24 age group had the highest incidence of early syphilis, with incidence rates of 10.47/100 000 and 16.67/100 000 for primary and secondary syphilis, respectively. The risk of disease first increased and then decreased over time. With the progression of birth cohorts, the risk of disease continued to increase, peaking in 2006–2010, with relative risks (RR) of 6.38 and 8.58 for primary and secondary syphilis, respectively.

Conclusions

The incidence of early syphilis in Shandong province showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. The 20–24 age group had the highest risk of disease, and the proportion of cases in the 0–19 and ≥60 age groups has been increasing.

syphilis  /  Joinpoint regression model  /  age-period-cohort (APC) model  /  Shandong province
吴正昊, 董宇, 蔡新宇, 张凤悦, 刘洪庆. 2006—2020年山东省早期梅毒年龄–时期–队列分析. 中国公共卫生, 2025 , 41 (4) : 477 -482 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1145773
Zhenghao WU, Yu DONG, Xinyu CAI, Fengyue ZHANG, Hongqing LIU. Age-period-cohort analysis of early syphilis in Shandong province from 2006 to 2020[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2025 , 41 (4) : 477 -482 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1145773
Year 2025 volume 41 Issue 4
81
37
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Article Info
doi: 10.11847/zgggws1145773
  • Receive Date:2024-10-31
  • Online Date:2026-10-25
  • Published:2025-04-10
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History
  • Received:2024-10-31
  • Revised:2025-01-20
  • Accepted:2025-03-14
Affiliations
    School of Public Health, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang 261053, Shandong, China

Corresponding:

LIU Hongqing, E-mail:
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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