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Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis of hepatitis A and B incidence trends in China, 2004–2020
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Tian LIU1, Zhiqiang LIN2, Quan XIANG1, Dexin RUAN1, Zhou QIN1, Jing ZHAO3
Chinese Journal of Public Health | 2025, 41(9) : 1124 - 1128
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Chinese Journal of Public Health | 2025, 41(9): 1124-1128
• Survey and Report •
Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis of hepatitis A and B incidence trends in China, 2004–2020
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Tian LIU1, Zhiqiang LIN2, Quan XIANG1, Dexin RUAN1, Zhou QIN1, Jing ZHAO3
Affiliations
  • 1Department for Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Jingzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jingzhou 434000, China
  • 2Department of Public Health, Jingzhou Central Hospital, Jingzhou 434000, China
  • 3Health Emergency Center, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases), Beijing 102206, China
Published: 2025-09-10 doi: 10.11847/zgggws1145591
Outline
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Objective

To analyze the trends in hepatitis A (HA) and hepatitis B (HB) incidence in China and provide evidence for scientific prevention and control.

Methods

Data on HA and HB incidence from 2004 to 2020 were collected from the Public Health Science Data Center for 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in China′s mainland . Joinpoint regression and Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) models were used to analyze the overall trends, age, period, and birth cohort effects of HA and HB.

Results

The overall incidence of HA showed a decreasing trend from 2004 to 2020 (AAPC= –11.23%, 95%CI: –13.32% to –9.09%), with decreasing trends observed in both 2004–2012 (EAPC= –15.47%, 95%CI: –18.57% to –12.24%) and 2012–2020 (EAPC= –6.79%, 95%CI: –10.21% to –3.23%). The overall incidence of HB showed no significant trend from 2004 to 2020 (AAPC= –0.43%, 95%CI: –2.95%–2.17%). From 2004 to 2020, the highest HA incidence rates were observed in the 5–9 (71 223 cases, 5.34/100 000), 0–4 (53 493 cases, 3.92/100 000), and 10-14 (48 481 cases, 3.49/100 000) age groups. The age group with the highest HA incidence shifted from younger age groups (≤14 years) in 2004 to older age groups (≥75 years) after 2017. From 2004 to 2020, the highest HB incidence rates were observed in the 25–29 (1 981 536 cases, 114.46/100 000), 30–34 (1 878 450 cases, 110.13/100 000), and 50–54 (1 500 335 cases, 99.61/100 000) age groups. The age group with the highest HB incidence shifted from the 15–24 age group in 2004 to the 50–59 age group after 2016. The birth cohort risk of HA showed an inverted "V" shape, with a decreasing trend in those born after 2000 (P<0.05). The birth cohort risk of HB also showed an inverted "V" shape, with a decreasing trend in those born after 1995 (P<0.05).

Conclusions

After the inclusion of HA and HB vaccines in the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) in China, the incidence rates in the target populations have decreased significantly. From 2004 to 2020, significant changes were observed in the high-risk populations for both HA and HB, with a trend towards higher age groups.

hepatitis A  /  hepatitis B  /  joinpoint regression  /  Bayesian age-period-cohort
刘天, 林志强, 向泉, 阮德欣, 秦周, 赵婧. 2004—2020年中国甲肝和乙肝发病趋势贝叶斯年龄–时期–出生队列分析. 中国公共卫生, 2025 , 41 (9) : 1124 -1128 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1145591
Tian LIU, Zhiqiang LIN, Quan XIANG, Dexin RUAN, Zhou QIN, Jing ZHAO. Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis of hepatitis A and B incidence trends in China, 2004–2020[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2025 , 41 (9) : 1124 -1128 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1145591
Year 2025 volume 41 Issue 9
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Article Info
doi: 10.11847/zgggws1145591
  • Receive Date:2024-08-01
  • Online Date:2026-10-25
  • Published:2025-09-10
Article Data
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History
  • Received:2024-08-01
  • Revised:2024-09-12
  • Accepted:2025-04-22
Affiliations
    1Department for Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Jingzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jingzhou 434000, China
    2Department of Public Health, Jingzhou Central Hospital, Jingzhou 434000, China
    3Health Emergency Center, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases), Beijing 102206, China

Corresponding:

ZHAO Jing, E-mail:
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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