Full
Outline
To develop an imported dengue fever prediction model based on multi-fusion machine learning, aiming to enhance the scientific basis and foresight of infectious disease prevention and control at Guangzhou port.
Data on imported dengue fever cases at Guangzhou port from 2015 to 2019 were collected, along with meteorological indicators, inbound passenger volume, flight traffic, vegetation index, and vector density. After data cleaning and standardization, three base models (BP neural network, random forest, and CatBoost) were constructed. Weighted averaging and stacking ensemble strategies were then adopted to build dual-fusion and triple-fusion models. Model performance was evaluated based on mean squared error (MSE) and coefficient of determination (R2).
The fusion models outperformed single models overall, demonstrating higher predictive accuracy and stability. Among them, the stacked ensemble of random forest and CatBoost achieved the best performance, with an MSE of 4.749 and an R2 of 0.601, significantly improving upon the best single model. SHAP analysis further revealed that humidity, sunshine duration, and diurnal temperature variation were the main driving factors, while inbound passenger volume also contributed substantially to predictions.
Multi-fusion machine learning models provide significant advantages in predicting imported dengue cases, offering strong support for early warning and the formulation of prevention strategies in port public health.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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