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Prediction of the ten-year risk of cardiovascular diseases for residents aged 35–75 years old in Xuzhou city: based on the China-PAR model
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Zongmei DONG1, Yixue JIANG1, De LIU1, Pan ZHANG1, Peipei CHEN1, Ting LI1, Ke WANG2, Cheng QIAO1
Chinese Journal of Public Health | 2026, 42(3) : 284 - 288
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Chinese Journal of Public Health | 2026, 42(3): 284-288
• Special Report—Chronic Disease Prevention and Control •
Prediction of the ten-year risk of cardiovascular diseases for residents aged 35–75 years old in Xuzhou city: based on the China-PAR model
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Zongmei DONG1, Yixue JIANG1, De LIU1, Pan ZHANG1, Peipei CHEN1, Ting LI1, Ke WANG2, Cheng QIAO1
Affiliations
  • 1Department of Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Xuzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xuzhou 221000, China
  • 2Department of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou 221004, China
Published: 2026-03-10 doi: 10.11847/zgggws1146519
Outline
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Objective

To predict the 10-year risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and its risk factors among residents aged 35–75 years old in Xuzhou City, so as to provide a scientific basis for formulating prevention and control measures for CVD.

Methods

The data of residents aged 35–75 years old in Gulou district, Yunlong district, and Quanshan district of Xuzhou city collected during the baseline survey of the Jiangsu Province Comprehensive Prevention and Control Project for Cardiovascular Diseases in 2022–2023 were used. Information such as general data, body height, body weight, waist circumference, blood pressure, total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) was gathered through questionnaires, physical examinations, and laboratory tests. The prediction for ASCVD risk in China (China-PAR) model was used to assess the 10-year risk of CVD among the surveyed subjects.

Results

The 12 256 residents aged 35–75 years old in Xuzhou consisted of 3 956 (32.28%) males and 8 300 (67.72%) females. Males showed higher age, waist circumference, body mass index (BMI), systolic/diastolic blood pressure, TG, smoking rate, hypertension prevalence, diabetes prevalence, and antihypertensive medication use than females (all P < 0.05). Females exhibited higher levels of TC, LDL-C, HDL-C, and CVD family history than males (all P < 0.05). The 10-year CVD risk among participants was 7.67%, and it was higher among males (10.85%) than among females (6.31%) (P < 0.01). The proportion of high-risk populations reached 37.73%, being higher in males (54.60%) than in females (29.69%) (P < 0.01). This proportion increased with age, and males in all age groups had higher proportions of high-risk populations than females. Aggregated risk factors of 1, 2, or ≥ 3 accounted for 28.24%, 28.11%, and 26.07%, respectively. The aggregation of risk factors in females increased with age (χ2trend = 908.35, P < 0.001), while no such trend was observed in males (P > 0.05).

Conclusions

The 10-year CVD risk is high in the residents aged 35–75 years old in Xuzhou city. Males show higher risk, proportion of high-risk populations in different age groups, and aggregation of risk factors than females.

cardiovascular disease  /  risk prediction  /  high-risk population  /  ASCVD risk in China (China-PAR) model  /  Xuzhou city
董宗美, 江宜雪, 刘德, 张盼, 陈培培, 李婷, 王可, 乔程. 徐州市35~75岁人群心血管病10年发病风险预测:基于China-PAR法. 中国公共卫生, 2026 , 42 (3) : 284 -288 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1146519
Zongmei DONG, Yixue JIANG, De LIU, Pan ZHANG, Peipei CHEN, Ting LI, Ke WANG, Cheng QIAO. Prediction of the ten-year risk of cardiovascular diseases for residents aged 35–75 years old in Xuzhou city: based on the China-PAR model[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2026 , 42 (3) : 284 -288 . DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1146519
Year 2026 volume 42 Issue 3
96
36
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Article Info
doi: 10.11847/zgggws1146519
  • Receive Date:2024-11-27
  • Online Date:2026-10-23
  • Published:2026-03-10
Article Data
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History
  • Received:2024-11-27
  • Revised:2025-08-12
  • Accepted:2025-08-29
Affiliations
    1Department of Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Xuzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xuzhou 221000, China
    2Department of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Xuzhou Medical University, Xuzhou 221004, China

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QIAO Cheng, E-mail:
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)
属
Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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