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Outline
To understand the epidemic dynamics and epidemiological characteristics of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, thus providing a scientific basis for early warning, prediction, and prevention and control of this disease.
On the basis of the case data of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region from 2017 to 2023 in the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, descriptive analysis was performed to reveal the epidemiological characteristics of human brucellosis, and the ARIMA model was adopted to predict the epidemic trend of this disease.
From 2017 to 2023, the annual reported incidences of human brucellosis cases in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region were 30.63/100 000, 39.92/100 000, 56.84/100 000, 64.77/100 000, 91.03/100 000, 79.57/100 000, and 70.34/100 000, respectively. The incidence rose from 2017 to 2021 and declined from 2022 to 2023 (χ2 = 7 843.95, P < 0.001). The epidemic had obvious seasonality (Z = 5 561.78, P < 0.01). The cases showed a male: female ratio of 2.20:1, with farmers accounting for 78.4%. The proportion of cases with a time interval of 0 to 15 days between onset and diagnosis increased year by year (χ2 = 419.38, P < 0.001). The reported cases in the acute phase and subacute phase accounted for 80.21% and 16.27%, respectively. The proportion of reported cases transitioning from acute and subacute phases to chronic phase decreased year by year (χ2 = 581.18, P < 0.01). The ARIMA(2,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model established with the minimum AIC value of 224.65 was the optimal, demonstrating satisfactory fitting effect in prediction.
The reported incidence of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region shows an overall upward trend from 2017 to 2021 and a decreasing trend from 2022 to 2024.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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