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Risk zoo (VI): metaphorical traceability,evolution process and research outlook of black swans
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Ruipeng TONG, Fanjie LIANG, Ziyao MENG, Yiyan WANG
China Safety Science Journal | 2024, 34(6) : 10 - 19
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China Safety Science Journal | 2024, 34(6): 10-19
Safety social science and safety management
Risk zoo (VI): metaphorical traceability,evolution process and research outlook of black swans
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Ruipeng TONG, Fanjie LIANG, Ziyao MENG, Yiyan WANG
Affiliations
  • School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing,Beijing 100083,China
Published: 2024-06-28 doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.06.0091
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In order to prevent the risk of uncertainty and extreme impact brought by the black swan,the origin,transmutation and prospect of the black swan were studied in depth under the perspective of metaphor theory. Firstly,the conceptual integration theory was adopted to analyze the cognitive construction mechanism of the black swan risk metaphor from the aspects of historical flow and development trend,summarize the overall development trend of the black swan,and on the basis of this,divide the black swan into three important transmutation stages of founding,exploring development,and innovating and perfecting,so as to put forward the research dilemma and future outlook of the black swan under the background of digital intelligence empowerment. The results show that the risk metaphor meaning of black swan is a risk event with rarity,episodic,unexpected and unpredictable,and extremely negative impact; the development of the black swan risk metaphor will enter the stage of theoretical differentiation of quantitative fluctuation and change,and the direction of the research should be from generalized application to precise application,from single risk to composite risk,and from silo research to group research.

risk zoo  /  black swan  /  risk metaphors  /  evolution process  /  conceptual integration  /  uncertainty
Ruipeng TONG, Fanjie LIANG, Ziyao MENG, Yiyan WANG. Risk zoo (VI): metaphorical traceability,evolution process and research outlook of black swans[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2024 , 34 (6) : 10 -19 . DOI: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.06.0091
Year 2024 volume 34 Issue 6
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doi: 10.16265/j.cnki.issn1003-3033.2024.06.0091
  • Receive Date:2023-12-14
  • Online Date:2025-07-09
  • Published:2024-06-28
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  • Received:2023-12-14
  • Revised:2024-03-18
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    School of Emergency Management and Safety Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology-Beijing,Beijing 100083,China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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