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Time-dependent reliability prediction of bridge components with the fusion of BO-LSTM and Copula theory
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Qifan ZHAO1, Yuefei LIU1, 2, Xueping FAN1, 2
Journal of Vibration Engineering | 2025, 38(9) : 2182 - 2191
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Journal of Vibration Engineering | 2025, 38(9): 2182-2191
Time-dependent reliability prediction of bridge components with the fusion of BO-LSTM and Copula theory
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Qifan ZHAO1, Yuefei LIU1, 2, Xueping FAN1, 2
Affiliations
  • 1.School of Civil Engineering and Mechanics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
  • 2.Key Laboratory of Mechanics on Disaster and Environment in Western China of the Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
Published: 2025-09-10 doi: 10.16385/j.cnki.issn.1004-4523.202309064
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There exists the nonlinear failure correlation among the multiple monitoring points of bridge components. Considering the influence of this factor on the reliability indices of the bridge, this paper adopts the Bayesian optimized long short-term memory (BO-LSTM) network model in machine learning to dynamically predict the monitoring data of the bridge, and establishes a three-dimensional Gaussian Copula model based on Copula theory to calculate the time-varying reliability indices and failure probability of the bridge construction. The rationality of the model and method is verified by applying the monitoring data of Fumin Bridge in Tianjin.

structural engineering  /  Bayesian optimization  /  long short-term memory network  /  Copula theory  /  time-varying reliability prediction
Qifan ZHAO, Yuefei LIU, Xueping FAN. Time-dependent reliability prediction of bridge components with the fusion of BO-LSTM and Copula theory[J]. Journal of Vibration Engineering, 2025 , 38 (9) : 2182 -2191 . DOI: 10.16385/j.cnki.issn.1004-4523.202309064
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Year 2025 volume 38 Issue 9
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Article Info
doi: 10.16385/j.cnki.issn.1004-4523.202309064
  • Receive Date：2023-09-22
  • Online Date：2026-02-09
  • Published：2025-09-10
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History
  • Received：2023-09-22
  • Revised：2023-11-09
Funding
Affiliations
    1.School of Civil Engineering and Mechanics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
    2.Key Laboratory of Mechanics on Disaster and Environment in Western China of the Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
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表12种不同金属材料的力学参数
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Number of
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Number of
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小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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