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In order to establish the probabilistic risk assessment method for heavy metals and harmful elements in line with the characteristics of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) and provide guidance for the safe use of TCM, the contents of lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), arsenic (as), mercury (Hg) and copper (Cu) in 21 batches of Plantago asiatica L. were determined by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). By the comprehensive use of investigation of TCM consumption pattern and Monte Carlo simulation technology, the non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risks of heavy metals and harmful elements in TCM were assessed by hazard quotient (HQ) and cancer risk (CR), respectively. The greatest risk contributors were screened through sensitivity analysis. The results revealed that the mean contents of Pb, Cd, As, Hg and Cu in Plantago asiatica L. were 9.01, 0.28, 3.83, 0.01 and 12.82 mg·kg-1, respectively. The P95, P99 and maximum values of HQ for males were 1.41, 2.83 and 10.97 mg·kg-1, respectively. The P95, P99 and maximum values of HQ for females were 1.27, 2.63 and 9.80 mg·kg-1, respectively. The P95, P99 and maximum values of HI for males were 1.44, 2.85 and 11.0 mg·kg-1, respectively. The P95, P99 and maximum values of HI for females were 1.29, 2.66 and 10.0 mg·kg-1, respectively. The P99 and maximum values for CRAs and total carcinogenic risk (TCR) were greater than 10-4 for both men and women. The risk assessment results indicated that the non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risks of high exposure population caused by arsenic exposure are needed to be concern. The results of sensitivity analysis showed that the exposure frequency of TCM and the arsenic concentrations in Plantago asiatica L. were the main risk contributors. Based on Monte Carlo simulation technology and considering the characteristics of TCM, this study puts forward the first example of probabilistic risk assessment of heavy metals and harmful elements in Chinese herbal medicine, which provides a novel perspective for health risk assessment of heavy metals in TCM.
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| 科 Family | 属数 Number of genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) | 属 Genus | 种数 Number of species | 占总种数比例 Percentage of total species (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae | 2 | 11 | 5.26 | 鹅膏菌属 Amanita | 10 | 4.78 |
| 小菇科 Mycenaceae | 2 | 12 | 5.74 | 丝盖伞属 Inocybe | 5 | 2.39 |
| 多孔菌科 Polyporaceae | 8 | 14 | 6.70 | 蜡蘑属 Laccaria | 5 | 2.39 |
| 红菇科 Russulaceae | 3 | 23 | 11.00 | 小皮伞属 Marasmius | 6 | 2.87 |
| 小菇属 Mycena | 11 | 5.26 | ||||
| 光柄菇属 Pluteus | 5 | 2.39 | ||||
| 红菇属 Russula | 17 | 8.13 | ||||
| 栓菌属 Trametes | 5 | 2.39 |
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