Article(id=1324078134349410951, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1324078037817504735, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202508081, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1754582400000, receivedDateStr=2025-08-08, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793614427411, onlineDateStr=2026-11-02, pubDate=1770652800000, pubDateStr=2026-02-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793614427411, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-11-02, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793614427411, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793614427411, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1324078037817504735, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2026', volume='53', issue='3', pageStart='385', pageEnd='576', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1770652800000', pubDateStr='2026-02-10', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=0, createTime=1793614404396, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793614474144, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1324078330420527919, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1324078037817504735, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1324078330420527920, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1324078037817504735, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=539, endPage=545, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1324078134580097672, articleId=1324078134349410951, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Development and validation of a prediction model for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in non-obese population using seven machine learning algorithms, columnId=1228016569138213037, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Clinical Medicine and Prevention, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To investigate the predictive value of machine learning methods for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD) in non-obese populations and to analyze the risk factors for NAFLD within this group.

Methods

Data on 43 variables,including body composition, medical history, and laboratory test results, were retrospectively collected and screened from 1 517 non-obese subjects at the Physical Examination Center of Xiyuan Hospital, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences,between January 2021 and December 2024. The outcome indicator was the diagnosis of NAFLD by abdominal ultrasonography,based on which subjects were stratified into NAFLD and non-NAFLD groups. Predictors were screened using univariate analysis, lasso regression, and multivariable logistic regression analysis. Seven machine learning methods including logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), light hradient boosting machine(LightGBM),support vector machine(SVM), and artificial neural network(ANN), were employed to develop and validate prediction models for NAFLD in non-obese individuals. The shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method was used to interpret variable contributions.

Results

Among the 1 517 included subjects, 215 (14.2%) were diagnosed with NAFLD. Ten independent predictors were identified. The area under the curve (AUC) values for the seven prediction models on the validation set ranged from 0.876 to 0.924. The model based on XGBoost demonstrated the best discriminative ability (AUC=0.924, 95% CI: 0.895-0.949). The SHAP value-based variable importance ranking identified phase angle, the ZJU index, and UHR as the top three significant predictors.

Conclusion

The XGBoost model, constructed using routine physical examination data, exhibits high predictive performance for NAFLD incidence in non-obese populations. Its interpretable features facilitate the clinical prioritization of high-risk individuals.

, authors=Lin-jie QIU, Hai-yan REN, Yan REN, Mei-jie LI, Cha-cha ZOU, Zi-jin WU, Jin ZHANG, authorsList=Lin-jie QIU, Hai-yan REN, Yan REN, Mei-jie LI, Cha-cha ZOU, Zi-jin WU, Jin ZHANG, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Jin ZHANG, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1324078137503527571, articleId=1324078134349410951, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=CN, title=基于七种机器学习算法的非肥胖人群非酒精性脂肪性肝病预测模型的构建与验证, columnId=1228016570119680182, journalTitle=现代预防医学, columnName=临床与预防, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的

探究机器学习方法对非肥胖人群非酒精性脂肪性肝病(non-alcoholic fatty liver disease,NAFLD)的预测价值,并从中分析非肥胖人群NAFLD的危险因素。

方法

回顾性收集并筛选出2021年1月—2024年12月来自中国中医科学院西苑医院体检中心的1 517名非肥胖研究对象的人体成分、既往史、检验等43个变量信息,结局指标为腹部超声诊断是否为NAFLD,并据此分为NAFLD组和非NAFLD组。通过单因素、LASSO回归和多因素logistic回归分析筛选预测因子,通过logistic回归、决策树模型、随机森林、极端梯度提升、轻量级梯度提升机、支持向量机和人工神经网络七种机器学习方法构建并验证非肥胖NAFLD预测模型,通过采用沙普利加性解释(Shapley additive explanations, SHAP)法解析变量贡献度。

结果

纳入的1 517例研究对象中NAFLD为215例(14.2%)。共筛选出10个独立预测因子,七种预测模型验证集曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)值范围为 0.876~0.924,其中基于XGBoost构建的模型区分度最佳(AUC=0.924,95% CI:0.895~0.949)。基于 SHAP 值的变量重要性排序结果显示,相位角、ZJU指数及UHR是前三位重要预测因子。

结论

基于常规体检数据构建的XGBoost模型对非肥胖人群NAFLD的发病具有较高预测效能,其可解释性特征有助于临床优先识别高危个体。

, authors=邱林杰, 任海燕, 任燕, 李美洁, 邹姹姹, 吴梓敬, 张晋, authorsList=邱林杰, 任海燕, 任燕, 李美洁, 邹姹姹, 吴梓敬, 张晋, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=张晋, authorNote=

邱林杰(1995—),男,博士在读,研究方向:中医治未病、中医药防治代谢性疾病

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张晋,E-mail:
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邱林杰(1995—),男,博士在读,研究方向:中医治未病、中医药防治代谢性疾病

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CVD Prevention and Control, 2010, 5(3): 75-80., articleTitle=Low HDL-Cholesterol with normal triglyceride levels is the most common lipid pattern in West Africans and African Americans with metabolic syndrome:implications for cardiovascular disease prevention, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1324078145401402068, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324078134349410951, awardId=2018YFC2000600, language=CN, fundingSource=国家重点研发计划资助项目(2018YFC2000600), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1324078145489482453, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324078134349410951, awardId=2023-SZ-A-51, language=CN, fundingSource=北京中医药“薪火传承3+3工程”(2023-SZ-A-51), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1324078145598534358, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324078134349410951, awardId=CI2021A03005, language=CN, fundingSource=中国中医科学院科技创新工程(CI2021A03005), fundOrder=null, country=null)], 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Comparison of baseline characteristics between the non-obese non-NAFLD group and the non-obese NAFLD group [n(%),M(P25,P75)]

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量非肥胖非NAFLD组(n=1 302)非肥胖NAFLD组(n=215)统计值(χ2/Z值)P值
性别9.0520.003
女性853(65.51)118(54.88)
男性449(34.49)97(45.12)
吸烟11.8140.002
否1 285(98.69)205(95.35)
是17(1.31)10(4.65)
年龄(岁)47.00 (33.00, 62.00)49.00 (36.50, 63.00)-1.6200.106
BMI(kg/m2)23.80(21.60, 25.67)23.20 (20.60, 25.55)-2.1910.028
腰围(cm)83.50(77.40, 89.35)81.50 (75.65, 88.35)-2.7230.006
臀围(cm)94.90 (90.82, 98.20)94.40(90.00, 97.20)-2.3440.020
腰臀比0.88(0.84, 0.92)0.87 (0.83, 0.91)-2.5910.010
收缩压(mm Hg)122.00 (111.00, 134.00)129.00(119.50, 140.00)-5.887<0.001
舒张压(mm Hg)70.00 (63.00, 78.00)75.00(68.50, 82.00)-6.072<0.001
中性粒细胞计数(×109/L)3.19(2.59, 3.93)3.66(3.01, 4.59)-5.722<0.001
血小板计数(×109/L)239.50 (204.00, 279.00)254.00 (224.00, 295.00)-4.220<0.001
单核细胞计数(×109/L)0.29(0.24, 0.35)0.34(0.28, 0.42)-6.080<0.001
淋巴细胞计数(×109/L)1.84 (1.50, 2.21)2.12(1.77, 2.49)-6.352<0.001
ALT(U/L)14.10(10.50, 21.30)21.70(15.15, 32.20)-10.543<0.001
AST(U/L)18.10(15.50, 21.90)20.20 (17.05, 25.50)-5.607<0.001
ALT/AST0.79 (0.64, 1.02)1.05(0.87, 1.40)-10.991<0.001
总胆红素(μmol/L)10.75 (8.40, 14.00)11.10 (8.05, 14.20)-0.0930.931
TC(mmol/L)4.74 (4.12, 5.42)4.93 (4.20, 5.53)-2.1130.035
TG(mmol/L)1.04 (0.74, 1.46)1.37(1.04, 1.91)-7.934<0.001
HDL-C(mmol/L)1.34 (1.13, 1.55)1.22 (1.02, 1.45)-5.031<0.001
LDL-C(mmol/L)2.92 (2.39, 3.56)3.16(2.59, 3.76)-3.0900.002
肌酐(mmol/L)67.00 (59.00, 78.00)71.00 (61.00, 83.00)-2.9120.004
FPG(mmol/L)5.30(5.03, 5.73)5.57(5.18, 6.19)-5.584<0.001
UA(mmol/L)300.00 (253.00, 357.00)380.00(338.50, 423.50)-12.765<0.001
NHHR2.53(1.89, 3.28)2.94(2.38, 3.63)-5.724<0.001
UHR0.10(0.07, 0.13)0.13(0.09, 0.16)-8.173<0.001
TyG6.81(6.43, 7.22)7.12 (6.86, 7.54)-8.572<0.001
TyG-BMI160.59 (143.52, 176.84)166.63(149.58, 181.64)-2.7530.006
METS-IR2.02(1.88, 2.19)2.17(2.02, 2.34)-7.232<0.001
ZJU34.32 (31.88, 36.48)36.27 (33.87, 38.97)-8.441<0.001
体脂肪(kg)19.60(15.90, 23.10)18.40 (14.50, 22.40)-2.6760.007
肌肉量(kg)39.30(35.60, 47.08)39.40(34.95, 45.65)-0.8910.373
肌脂比2.07(1.72, 2.71)2.21(1.77, 2.91)-1.9320.054
骨骼肌(kg)22.60(20.20, 27.58)22.70 (19.75, 26.60)-1.0200.309
体脂百分比(%)31.25(25.80, 35.38)29.80 (24.45, 34.60)-1.9440.052
基础代谢率1 272.00 (1 188.00, 1 445.75)1 274.00 (1 173.00, 1 412.00)-0.8810.378
内脏脂肪面积(cm2)89.50(68.90, 112.30)89.00(76.00, 107.45)-0.7620.448
相位角(°)5.05 (4.60, 5.50)4.50(4.50, 4.50)-13.281<0.001
骨骼肌指数6.60 (6.00, 7.40)6.60 (6.00, 7.20)-0.9420.347
高血压26.812<0.001
否973 (74.73)124 (57.67)
是329 (25.27)91 (42.33)
糖尿病10.8020.002
否1 157 (88.86)174 (80.93)
是145 (11.14)41 (19.07)
胆结石75.878<0.001
否1 286 (98.77)190 (88.37)
是16 (1.23)25 (11.63)
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非肥胖非NAFLD组和非肥胖NAFLD组基线特征的比较[n(%),M(P25,P75)]

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量非肥胖非NAFLD组(n=1 302)非肥胖NAFLD组(n=215)统计值(χ2/Z值)P值
性别9.0520.003
女性853(65.51)118(54.88)
男性449(34.49)97(45.12)
吸烟11.8140.002
否1 285(98.69)205(95.35)
是17(1.31)10(4.65)
年龄(岁)47.00 (33.00, 62.00)49.00 (36.50, 63.00)-1.6200.106
BMI(kg/m2)23.80(21.60, 25.67)23.20 (20.60, 25.55)-2.1910.028
腰围(cm)83.50(77.40, 89.35)81.50 (75.65, 88.35)-2.7230.006
臀围(cm)94.90 (90.82, 98.20)94.40(90.00, 97.20)-2.3440.020
腰臀比0.88(0.84, 0.92)0.87 (0.83, 0.91)-2.5910.010
收缩压(mm Hg)122.00 (111.00, 134.00)129.00(119.50, 140.00)-5.887<0.001
舒张压(mm Hg)70.00 (63.00, 78.00)75.00(68.50, 82.00)-6.072<0.001
中性粒细胞计数(×109/L)3.19(2.59, 3.93)3.66(3.01, 4.59)-5.722<0.001
血小板计数(×109/L)239.50 (204.00, 279.00)254.00 (224.00, 295.00)-4.220<0.001
单核细胞计数(×109/L)0.29(0.24, 0.35)0.34(0.28, 0.42)-6.080<0.001
淋巴细胞计数(×109/L)1.84 (1.50, 2.21)2.12(1.77, 2.49)-6.352<0.001
ALT(U/L)14.10(10.50, 21.30)21.70(15.15, 32.20)-10.543<0.001
AST(U/L)18.10(15.50, 21.90)20.20 (17.05, 25.50)-5.607<0.001
ALT/AST0.79 (0.64, 1.02)1.05(0.87, 1.40)-10.991<0.001
总胆红素(μmol/L)10.75 (8.40, 14.00)11.10 (8.05, 14.20)-0.0930.931
TC(mmol/L)4.74 (4.12, 5.42)4.93 (4.20, 5.53)-2.1130.035
TG(mmol/L)1.04 (0.74, 1.46)1.37(1.04, 1.91)-7.934<0.001
HDL-C(mmol/L)1.34 (1.13, 1.55)1.22 (1.02, 1.45)-5.031<0.001
LDL-C(mmol/L)2.92 (2.39, 3.56)3.16(2.59, 3.76)-3.0900.002
肌酐(mmol/L)67.00 (59.00, 78.00)71.00 (61.00, 83.00)-2.9120.004
FPG(mmol/L)5.30(5.03, 5.73)5.57(5.18, 6.19)-5.584<0.001
UA(mmol/L)300.00 (253.00, 357.00)380.00(338.50, 423.50)-12.765<0.001
NHHR2.53(1.89, 3.28)2.94(2.38, 3.63)-5.724<0.001
UHR0.10(0.07, 0.13)0.13(0.09, 0.16)-8.173<0.001
TyG6.81(6.43, 7.22)7.12 (6.86, 7.54)-8.572<0.001
TyG-BMI160.59 (143.52, 176.84)166.63(149.58, 181.64)-2.7530.006
METS-IR2.02(1.88, 2.19)2.17(2.02, 2.34)-7.232<0.001
ZJU34.32 (31.88, 36.48)36.27 (33.87, 38.97)-8.441<0.001
体脂肪(kg)19.60(15.90, 23.10)18.40 (14.50, 22.40)-2.6760.007
肌肉量(kg)39.30(35.60, 47.08)39.40(34.95, 45.65)-0.8910.373
肌脂比2.07(1.72, 2.71)2.21(1.77, 2.91)-1.9320.054
骨骼肌(kg)22.60(20.20, 27.58)22.70 (19.75, 26.60)-1.0200.309
体脂百分比(%)31.25(25.80, 35.38)29.80 (24.45, 34.60)-1.9440.052
基础代谢率1 272.00 (1 188.00, 1 445.75)1 274.00 (1 173.00, 1 412.00)-0.8810.378
内脏脂肪面积(cm2)89.50(68.90, 112.30)89.00(76.00, 107.45)-0.7620.448
相位角(°)5.05 (4.60, 5.50)4.50(4.50, 4.50)-13.281<0.001
骨骼肌指数6.60 (6.00, 7.40)6.60 (6.00, 7.20)-0.9420.347
高血压26.812<0.001
否973 (74.73)124 (57.67)
是329 (25.27)91 (42.33)
糖尿病10.8020.002
否1 157 (88.86)174 (80.93)
是145 (11.14)41 (19.07)
胆结石75.878<0.001
否1 286 (98.77)190 (88.37)
是16 (1.23)25 (11.63)
), ArticleFig(id=1324078143392330448, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324078134349410951, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Multivariable logistic regression analysis of risk factors for NAFLD in non-obese patients

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量偏回归系数标准误Wald χ2值P值
血小板计数(×109/L)0.0060.0032.4180.016
相位角(。)-2.2770.246-9.266<0.001
体脂肪(kg)-0.1920.045-4.294<0.001
ALT(U/L)-0.0460.023-1.9850.047
AST(U/L)0.07890.0302.6130.009
HDL-C(mmol/L)-3.3981.042-3.2620.001
TG(mmol/L)-0.3390.130-2.6080.009
UHR-38.18310.100-3.780<0.001
ZJU0.5980.0817.363<0.001
胆结石2.4910.5874.243<0.001
), ArticleFig(id=1324078143497188049, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324078134349410951, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

非肥胖患者NAFLD风险影响因素的多因素logistic回归分析

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量偏回归系数标准误Wald χ2值P值
血小板计数(×109/L)0.0060.0032.4180.016
相位角(。)-2.2770.246-9.266<0.001
体脂肪(kg)-0.1920.045-4.294<0.001
ALT(U/L)-0.0460.023-1.9850.047
AST(U/L)0.07890.0302.6130.009
HDL-C(mmol/L)-3.3981.042-3.2620.001
TG(mmol/L)-0.3390.130-2.6080.009
UHR-38.18310.100-3.780<0.001
ZJU0.5980.0817.363<0.001
胆结石2.4910.5874.243<0.001
), ArticleFig(id=1324078143576879826, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324078134349410951, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Screening results for seven machine model test sets

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机器学习方法AUC (95%CI)灵敏度(%)特异度(%)约登指数(%)
logistic91.01(87.87~93.97)51.5694.1045.67
DT87.6(84.51~90.43)96.8871.0367.90
随机森林91.47(89.90~94.36)90.6381.7972.42
XGBoost92.36(89.47~94.91)92.1982.5674.75
LightGBM91.17(88.10~94.10)90.6377.9568.57
SVM87.75(83.48~91.87)76.5681.5458.10
ANN88.89(84.51~92.85)78.1381.7959.92
), ArticleFig(id=1324078145279767251, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324078134349410951, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

七种机器模型测试集筛检结果

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
机器学习方法AUC (95%CI)灵敏度(%)特异度(%)约登指数(%)
logistic91.01(87.87~93.97)51.5694.1045.67
DT87.6(84.51~90.43)96.8871.0367.90
随机森林91.47(89.90~94.36)90.6381.7972.42
XGBoost92.36(89.47~94.91)92.1982.5674.75
LightGBM91.17(88.10~94.10)90.6377.9568.57
SVM87.75(83.48~91.87)76.5681.5458.10
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基于七种机器学习算法的非肥胖人群非酒精性脂肪性肝病预测模型的构建与验证
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邱林杰 , 任海燕 , 任燕 , 李美洁 , 邹姹姹 , 吴梓敬 , 张晋
现代预防医学 | 临床与预防 2026,53(3): 539-545
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现代预防医学 |临床与预防 2026 , 53 (3) : 539 -545
基于七种机器学习算法的非肥胖人群非酒精性脂肪性肝病预测模型的构建与验证
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邱林杰, 任海燕, 任燕, 李美洁, 邹姹姹, 吴梓敬, 张晋
作者信息
  • 中国中医科学院西苑医院治未病中心,北京100091
通讯作者:
张晋,E-mail:
作者简介:

邱林杰(1995—),男,博士在读,研究方向:中医治未病、中医药防治代谢性疾病

Development and validation of a prediction model for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in non-obese population using seven machine learning algorithms
Lin-jie QIU, Hai-yan REN, Yan REN, Mei-jie LI, Cha-cha ZOU, Zi-jin WU, Jin ZHANG
Affiliations
  • Department of Physical Examination, Future Disease Center, Xiyuan Hospital, China Academy of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Beijing 100091, China
出版时间: 2026-02-10 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202508081
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目的

探究机器学习方法对非肥胖人群非酒精性脂肪性肝病(non-alcoholic fatty liver disease,NAFLD)的预测价值,并从中分析非肥胖人群NAFLD的危险因素。

方法

回顾性收集并筛选出2021年1月—2024年12月来自中国中医科学院西苑医院体检中心的1 517名非肥胖研究对象的人体成分、既往史、检验等43个变量信息,结局指标为腹部超声诊断是否为NAFLD,并据此分为NAFLD组和非NAFLD组。通过单因素、LASSO回归和多因素logistic回归分析筛选预测因子,通过logistic回归、决策树模型、随机森林、极端梯度提升、轻量级梯度提升机、支持向量机和人工神经网络七种机器学习方法构建并验证非肥胖NAFLD预测模型,通过采用沙普利加性解释(Shapley additive explanations, SHAP)法解析变量贡献度。

结果

纳入的1 517例研究对象中NAFLD为215例(14.2%)。共筛选出10个独立预测因子,七种预测模型验证集曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)值范围为 0.876~0.924,其中基于XGBoost构建的模型区分度最佳(AUC=0.924,95% CI:0.895~0.949)。基于 SHAP 值的变量重要性排序结果显示,相位角、ZJU指数及UHR是前三位重要预测因子。

结论

基于常规体检数据构建的XGBoost模型对非肥胖人群NAFLD的发病具有较高预测效能,其可解释性特征有助于临床优先识别高危个体。

非肥胖NAFLD  /  机器学习  /  预测模型  /  相位角  /  XGBoost
Objective

To investigate the predictive value of machine learning methods for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD) in non-obese populations and to analyze the risk factors for NAFLD within this group.

Methods

Data on 43 variables,including body composition, medical history, and laboratory test results, were retrospectively collected and screened from 1 517 non-obese subjects at the Physical Examination Center of Xiyuan Hospital, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences,between January 2021 and December 2024. The outcome indicator was the diagnosis of NAFLD by abdominal ultrasonography,based on which subjects were stratified into NAFLD and non-NAFLD groups. Predictors were screened using univariate analysis, lasso regression, and multivariable logistic regression analysis. Seven machine learning methods including logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), light hradient boosting machine(LightGBM),support vector machine(SVM), and artificial neural network(ANN), were employed to develop and validate prediction models for NAFLD in non-obese individuals. The shapley additive explanations (SHAP) method was used to interpret variable contributions.

Results

Among the 1 517 included subjects, 215 (14.2%) were diagnosed with NAFLD. Ten independent predictors were identified. The area under the curve (AUC) values for the seven prediction models on the validation set ranged from 0.876 to 0.924. The model based on XGBoost demonstrated the best discriminative ability (AUC=0.924, 95% CI: 0.895-0.949). The SHAP value-based variable importance ranking identified phase angle, the ZJU index, and UHR as the top three significant predictors.

Conclusion

The XGBoost model, constructed using routine physical examination data, exhibits high predictive performance for NAFLD incidence in non-obese populations. Its interpretable features facilitate the clinical prioritization of high-risk individuals.

Non-obese NAFLD  /  Machine learning  /  Prediction model  /  Phase angle  /  XGBoost
邱林杰, 任海燕, 任燕, 李美洁, 邹姹姹, 吴梓敬, 张晋. 基于七种机器学习算法的非肥胖人群非酒精性脂肪性肝病预测模型的构建与验证. 现代预防医学, 2026 , 53 (3) : 539 -545 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202508081
Lin-jie QIU, Hai-yan REN, Yan REN, Mei-jie LI, Cha-cha ZOU, Zi-jin WU, Jin ZHANG. Development and validation of a prediction model for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in non-obese population using seven machine learning algorithms[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2026 , 53 (3) : 539 -545 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202508081
非酒精性脂肪性肝病(non-alcoholic fatty liver disease,NAFLD)已经成为一种常见的肝病。它是指一种以肝脏脂肪变性为特征的临床病理综合征,不是由过量饮酒、病毒或药物引起的[1-2]。该综合征包括非酒精性脂肪性肝炎,常伴有炎症、肝细胞损伤、肝硬化,甚至增生性癌和死亡。据估计,全球约有四分之一的人口患有NAFLD,NAFLD常伴有2型糖尿病、肥胖或心血管疾病。值得注意的是,非肥胖NAFLD患病率约为10%~20%,且患病率逐年增加[3]。此外,研究发现与肥胖NAFLD相比,非肥胖NAFLD疾病进展更快,死亡率更高[4]。因此,早期识别非肥胖NAFLD高危人群,对疾病发生发展的预防具有重要意义。在信息技术和多学科交叉发展的当下,机器学习算法非肥胖NAFLD预测提供了可靠的有效方法。本研究基于中国中医科学院西苑医院体检中心的体检数据,系统比较七种常用机器学习算法预测非肥胖人群NAFLD效能,通过可解释性分析揭示关键风险因子,旨在为非肥胖NAFLD防治提供依据。
本研究是基于中国中医科学院西苑医院体检中心开展的一项回顾性研究,以2021年1月—2024年12月于该体检中心体检的1 517例健康体检者为调查对象。
纳入标准:年龄大于等于18岁且身体质量指数(body mass index,BMI)小于28 kg/m2。排除标准:(1)饮酒史;(2)自身免疫性肝病、病毒性、肝炎、肝硬化、肝癌;(3)使用糖皮质激素等引发的药物性肝病;(4)妊娠或哺乳期妇女;(5)健康体检中缺少腹部超声检查者;(6)健康体检中缺少人体成分检查者。本研究已通过中国中医科学院西苑医院伦理委员会审查批准(2025XLA031)。
(1)NAFLD的诊断:以《非酒精性脂肪肝诊疗指南(2018年更新版)》为依据,根据腹部B超肝前场回声增强(“明亮肝”)、远场回声衰减,以及肝内管道结构显示不清楚等特征进行判别;(2)全身免疫炎症指数(systemic immune inflammation,SII)的定义:SII=P×N/L,其中P、N和L 分别对应外周血中血小板、中性粒细胞和淋巴细胞计数;(3)系统炎症反应指数(systemic inflammatory response index ,SIRI)的定义:SIRI=M×N/L,其中M为外周血中单核细胞计数;(4)全身性炎症聚集指数(systemic inflammatory score index,AISI)的定义:AISI=P×M×N/L;(5)甘油三酯-葡萄糖指数(triglyceride-glucose index,TyG)的定义:TyG=Ln[TG(mg/dl)×FPG(mg/dl)/2],其中TG为甘油三酯,FPG为空腹血糖;(6)甘油三酯葡萄糖-BMI(triglyceride glucose index-BMI,TyG-BMI)的定义:TyG-BMI=Ln[TG(mg/dl)×FPG(mg/dl)/2]×BMI(kg/m2);(7)胰岛素抵抗代谢评分(metabolic score for insulin resistance,METS-IR)的定义:METS-IR=Ln[2×FPG(mg/dl)+TG(mg/dl)×BMI(kg/m2) ]/Ln[HDL-C(mg/dl)],其中HDL-C为高密度脂蛋白胆固醇;(8)血清尿酸与高密度脂蛋白胆固醇比值(serum uric acid to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio,UHR)的定义:UHR=UA(mg/dl)/HDL-C(mg/dl),其中UA为血清尿酸;(9)非高密度与高密度脂蛋白胆固醇比值(non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio,NHHR)的定义:NHHR=[TC(mg/dl)-HDL-C(mg/dl)]/HDL-C(mg/dl),其中TC为总胆固醇;(10)浙江大学指数(Zhejiang University index,ZJU)的定义:ZJU =FPG (mmol/L)+BMI (kg/m2)+3×ALT(U/L)/AST(U/L) (+2,如果是女性)+TG (mmol/L);其中ALT为丙氨酸氨基转移酶,AST为天门冬氨酸氨基转移酶;(11)肌脂比的定义:肌肉与脂肪的比值;(12)体脂肪、肌肉量、骨骼肌、体脂百分比、基础代谢率、内脏脂肪面积、相位角及骨骼肌指数是通过Inbody 770身体成分分析仪检测获得的。
缺失值分两种类型处理:(1)缺失值超过 15%的变量予以删除;(2)缺失值低于15%的变量采用多重插补进行填补。
使用R 4.5.1和Python 3.10统计软件进行数据分析。不遵循正态分布的连续变量使用[M(P25,P75)]进行描述,并使用非参数Mann-Whitney秩和检验比较组间差异。分类变量用例(%)表示,使用χ2检验分析组间差异。
将研究数据按照7∶3随机划分为训练集和验证集。本研究采用分步式的变量处理策略。首先,基于单因素分析、LASSO回归和多因素logistic回归进行特征初筛。该策略旨在从大量临床变量中,筛选出具有明确统计学意义和临床解释性的核心预测因子集合,以增强最终模型的透明度和落地潜力。随后,将此核心变量集通过logistic回归、决策树模型(decision tree, DT)、随机森林(random forest)、极端梯度提升(extreme gradient boosting, XGBoost)、轻量级梯度提升机(light gradient boosting machine,LightGBM)、支持向量机(support vector machine,SVM)、人工神经网络(artificial neural network, ANN)七种机器学习方法构建非肥胖NAFLD预测模型,旨在充分利用复杂模型(如树模型、神经网络)的优势,深入挖掘这些核心变量之间潜在的非线性关系与交互效应,以进一步提升预测性能。然后通过绘制受试者工作曲线(receiver operating characteristic curve,ROC),计算各模型ROC的曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)、灵敏度、特异度、约登指数等来评价模型性能。将区分度最优模型通过沙普利加性解释(Shapley additive explanations, SHAP)法进行模型解释。使用合成少数过采样技术(synthetic minority over-sampling technique,SMOTE)处理训练集,使发病患者与未发病患者比例接近1∶1平衡,以提高模型的效能,并使用十折交叉验证法(cross-validation,CV)和网格搜索法用于寻找模型的最优参数。双侧检验,检验水准α=0.05。
本研究共纳入1 517例患者,其中男性546例(36.0%),女性971例(64.0%)。根据非肥胖人群是否发生NAFLD将研究对象分为非NAFLD组和NAFLD组,其中NAFLD组215例(14.2%)。不同性别、吸烟、BMI、腰围、臀围、腰臀比、收缩压、舒张压、中性粒细胞计数、血小板计数、单核细胞计数、淋巴细胞计数、ALT、AST、ALT/AST、TC、TG、HDL-C、LDL-C、肌酐、UA、NHHR、UHR、TyG、TyG-BMI、METS-IR、ZJU、体脂肪、相位角、是否高血压、是否糖尿病、是否胆结石等风险因素在非肥胖非NAFLD组和非肥胖NAFLD组患者中,差异具有统计学意义(P均<0.05)。见表1。
将单因素筛选出来的风险因子纳入LASSO回归分析,通过交叉验证确定最优λ值以筛选特征变量,结果共筛选出19个特征变量,包括性别、血小板计数、中性粒细胞计数、淋巴细胞计数、相位角、腰臀比、体脂肪、ALT、AST、ALT/AST、HDL-C、TG、FPG、UA、UHR、ZJU、高血压、糖尿病、胆结石。筛选过程见图1、2。
将LASSO回归筛选的19个特征变量纳入多因素logistic回归分析中,结果表明血小板计数、相位角、体脂肪、ALT、AST、HDL-C、TG、UHR、ZJU、胆结石是非肥胖NAFLD风险的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。见表2。
经SMOTE处理后的训练集中,基于多因素logistic回归分析筛选出的10个预测因子,通过logistic回归、DT、随机森林、XGBoost、LightGBM、SVM、ANN七种机器学习方法构建非肥胖NAFLD预测模型,并在验证集中进行内部验证。结果显示,七种模型在验证集中AUC取值范围为0.876~0.924,模型具有较好的区分度,其中基于XGBoost构建的模型区分度最佳(AUC=0.924,95% CI:0.895~0.949)。见图3、表3。
对AUC数值最高的XGBoost模型进行SHAP解释。SHAP特征性重要性排序结果显示,相位角、ZJU指数及UHR是非肥胖人群NAFLD发生风险的前三个重要预测因子,见图4。SHAP蜂群图直观地展示了各特征值与模型预测的关系。例如,在前三个重要预测因子中,相位角数值越大对模型有负向影响,是非肥胖人群NAFLD发生风险的保护因素;而ZJU指数和UHR数值越大对模型有正向影响,增加非肥胖人群NAFLD发生风险,见图5。
肥胖是发生NAFLD的一个众所周知的风险因素[5],然而越来越多的证据表明,非肥胖人群中NAFLD的患病率正在逐渐增加,尤其是亚洲国家[6]。预计到2040年,日本的非肥胖NAFLD的患病率将增加至20.7%[7]。在中国的一项前瞻性研究表明,在五年随访期间约有14.4%的非肥胖人群发生了NAFLD[8]。在亚洲的一项国际注册研究发现NAFLD患者中21.6%为非肥胖人群,且非肥胖NAFLD患者中肝炎和晚期肝纤维化患者的比例分别为50.5%和14%[9]。这些研究都表明了NAFLD在非肥胖人群的普遍性。目前对非肥胖NAFLD的研究相对较少,但非肥胖NAFLD通常是无症状的,但其是隐源性肝病的常见病因。因此迫切需要确定非肥胖NAFLD的早期和有效的危险因素,建立非肥胖人群NAFLD发病风险的预测模型。
机器学习能够自动挖掘海量数据中的复杂非线性关系和模式,处理高维特征,无需预设固定方程形式,相比依赖人工经验和简化假设的传统模型,其预测精度更高、适应性更强[10]。本研究回顾性分析了1 517例非肥胖健康体检者的基本信息、人体成分分析、既往疾病史、临床血液检验等指标,使用 logistic回归、DT、随机森林、XGBoost、LightGBM、SVM、ANN七种机器学习算法建立并验证了非肥胖人群NAFLD发病风险的预测模型,旨在为临床医生提供可靠的病情评估工具,以支持其制定更合理的治疗决策。
尽管本研究中构建的七种机器学习模型均表现出色且区分度差异无统计学意义,我们仍推荐XGBoost模型为最优选择。这一推荐不仅基于其在验证集中取得了最高的AUC值(0.924)和约登指数(74.75),更考虑到其92.19%的高灵敏度在疾病筛查中的重要临床价值,以及该模型出色的鲁棒性。尤为关键的是,XGBoost模型与SHAP框架的结合提供了卓越的可解释性,能够清晰量化各特征对预测结果的贡献,这极大地增强了模型的透明度和临床实践的转化潜力。XGBoost模型在处理复杂、高维的监测数据时展现出卓越的预测精度和泛化能力,能够更精准地识别关键特征[11]。对XGBoost模型进行SHAP解释,SHAP特征重要性排序结果显示,相位角、ZJU指数和UHR是非肥胖人群NAFLD发病风险的三大重要危险因素。相位角是电流穿透细胞膜时产生的电抗值与电阻值的夹角,电阻是电流流动的限制,主要与组织中的水有关;电抗是组织界面和细胞膜产生的电阻效应,可以代表细胞膜的完整性。相位角是分析评估细胞膜完整性和代谢活性的核心指标,在临床中可作为营养状态评估、炎症监测及慢性疾病预后判断的重要生物标志物[12-13]。来自武汉的一项涉及953名超重受试者的研究发现相位角与NAFLD之间存在显著的负相关,即超重受试者相位角越高,NAFLD发病风险越低,并且这种关联在BMI<30 kg/m2的受试者中显著,但在BMI≥30 kg/m2的受试者中不显著[14]。这与我们的研究结果具有一致性。本研究发现相位角是非肥胖人群NAFLD发病风险的重要因素,这可能是因为NAFLD状态下,会导致细胞质量的减少,和细胞膜表面积的损失,从而导致相位角的降低[15]。ZJU指数是识别中国普通人群NAFLD的可靠指标[16]。一项针对中国≥ 60岁老年人的NAFLD风险预测模型显示ZJU指数是NAFLD预测模型贡献度高的特征[17]。另一项针对非肥胖受试者ZJU指数与新发NAFLD的前瞻性队列研究也证实随着ZJU指数的增加,新发NAFLD的累积发病率逐渐增加[18]。我们的研究也表明ZJU指数是非肥胖人群NAFLD发病风险不可忽视的重要危险因素。NAFLD的发展与脂质代谢中断、葡萄糖加工异常和脂肪组织功能受损有关[19]。ZJU指数的组成部分,包括ALT、AST、TG和FPG,可作为肝脏代谢异常的代表性标志物。此外,ZJU指数还显示了与胰岛素抵抗的深刻联系。胰岛素抵抗是NAFLD的重要危险因素,其通过减少脂解抑制而促进游离脂肪酸流向肝脏,进而导致NAFLD[20]。本研究发现UHR是非肥胖人群NAFLD发病风险的第三大重要危险因素。来自美国和中国的两项研究均证实UHR水平升高与NAFLD风险增加显著相关[21-22]。UHR是一种新的炎症和代谢指标,UA水平与组织学肝损伤呈正相关,高尿酸血症通过各种机制促进代谢综合征和NAFLD的发生,包括胰岛素抵抗、氧化应激和果糖代谢紊乱[23]。另有研究表明HDL-C也参与代谢综合征,NAFLD患者HDL-C水平较低[24]。
本研究也存在一些局限性。首先,本研究为单中心研究,缺乏外部数据对模型进行外部验证,未来可能进行大样本多中心的队列数据来进一步拟合并验证模型;其次,本研究依托体检中心的体检数据,由于体检数据的局限性,未对参与者的饮食、运动情况等进行调查,可能导致影响因素的遗漏。最后,本研究人群主要为中国北方人群,需要进一步收集各地区的数据来证实结果的稳健性。
综上所述,本研究建立的 XGboost 模型对非肥胖NAFLD发病风险的预测具有良好的效果,可为医生提供良好的临床辅助决策,进而尽早防治NAFLD的发生。
  • 国家重点研发计划资助项目(2018YFC2000600)
  • 北京中医药“薪火传承3+3工程”(2023-SZ-A-51)
  • 中国中医科学院科技创新工程(CI2021A03005)
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202508081
  • 接收时间:2025-08-08
  • 首发时间:2026-11-02
  • 出版时间:2026-02-10
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  • 收稿日期:2025-08-08
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国家重点研发计划资助项目(2018YFC2000600)
北京中医药“薪火传承3+3工程”(2023-SZ-A-51)
中国中医科学院科技创新工程(CI2021A03005)
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    中国中医科学院西苑医院治未病中心,北京100091

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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
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