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Article(id=1324077735252984739, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1324077560820282023, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202509135, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1757260800000, receivedDateStr=2025-09-08, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793614332258, onlineDateStr=2026-11-02, pubDate=1774368000000, pubDateStr=2026-03-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793614332258, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-11-02, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793614332258, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793614332258, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1324077560820282023, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2026', volume='53', issue='6', pageStart='961', pageEnd='1152', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1774368000000', pubDateStr='2026-03-25', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=0, createTime=1793614290671, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793614391469, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1324077983656444429, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1324077560820282023, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1324077983660638734, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1324077560820282023, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=1068, endPage=1074, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1324077735798244261, articleId=1324077735252984739, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Matching degree between the elderly population and the supply of medical resources, Guangdong, columnId=1228016567846367388, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Health Policy and Management, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To analyze the coupling and coordination relationship between the elderly population and the supply of medical resources in Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2020, and to provide insights for optimizing regional medical resource allocation, improving health and well-being among the elderly, and proactively addressing population aging.

Methods

Using data from population censuses and statistical yearbooks, the entropy method and the coupling coordination degree model were applied to evaluate the coupling coordination and matching degree of the elderly system and medical resource supply system.

Results

From 2000 to 2020, the matching degrees of the elderly population and medical resource supply in Guangdong Province evolved from mild mismatch to basic match. Spatially, all cities had reached a minimally matched level by 2020, however, significant regional disparities remained. The Pearl River Delta and western Guangdong regions exhibited higher matching degrees than eastern and northern Guangdong.

Conclusion

The matching degree between the elderly population and medical resource supply in Guangdong has improved overall, though regional gaps remain. It is recommended that regions tailor medical resource allocation according to local aging trends, while proactively addressing the structural service needs of the elderly, such as chronic disease management and rehabilitation nursing, to enhance the precision and adaptability of resource matching.

, authors=Ya-min LU, Wei-guang YAO, authorsList=Ya-min LU, Wei-guang YAO, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Wei-guang YAO, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1324077738868474796, articleId=1324077735252984739, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=CN, title=广东省老年人口与医疗资源供给的匹配度研究, columnId=1228016568014139551, journalTitle=现代预防医学, columnName=卫生政策与管理, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的

分析2000—2020年广东省老年人口与医疗资源供给的耦合协调关系以评价二者匹配度，为优化区域医疗资源配置，提升老年人群健康福祉，积极应对人口老龄化提供参考。

方法

基于人口普查和统计年鉴数据，采用熵值法和耦合协调度模型评价老年系统与医疗资源供给系统耦合协调情况及其匹配度。

结果

2000—2020年广东省老年人口与医疗资源供给两系统匹配状况从轻度不匹配向基本匹配发展。空间上，2020年所有地市均达到勉强匹配水平，但区域差异显著，珠三角和粤西地区匹配度高于粤东和粤北地区。

结论

广东省老年人口与医疗资源供给的匹配度整体提升，但区域差异依然存在。建议各地结合自身老龄化发展趋势，差异化配置医疗资源，并前瞻性地关注老年群体对慢病管理、康复护理等服务的结构性需求，以提升匹配的精准性与适应性。

, authors=卢雅敏, 姚卫光, authorsList=卢雅敏, 姚卫光, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=姚卫光, authorNote=

卢雅敏（2003—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：公共管理

, correspAuthorsNote=
姚卫光，E-mail:
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卢雅敏（2003—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：公共管理

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卢雅敏（2003—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：公共管理

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(In Chinese), articleTitle=Analysis of coupling coordination degree between supply and utilization of medical resources in Guangdong Province, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1324077743947776974, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077735252984739, awardId=2024-2026, language=CN, fundingSource=广州公共卫生服务体系建设研究基地资助项目(2024-2026), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1324077739279516589, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077735252984739, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1324077739304682414, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077735252984739, companyId=1324077739279516589, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=School of Health Management, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510515, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1324077739321459631, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077735252984739, companyId=1324077739279516589, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=南方医科大学卫生管理学院，广东 广州 510515)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1324077741112427458, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077735252984739, language=EN, label=Fig.1, caption=Comparison of the comprehensive development level of aging and the supply level of medical resources in various cities in Guangdong Province, 2000-2020, figureFileSmall=PDrTX65hc5xpjvwH67ISHA==, figureFileBig=Ay/m5cD88m/6BcZWqHYI+Q==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1324077742781760451, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077735252984739, language=CN, label=图1, caption=2000—2020年广东省各地市老龄化综合发展水平与医疗资源供给水平对比图, figureFileSmall=PDrTX65hc5xpjvwH67ISHA==, figureFileBig=Ay/m5cD88m/6BcZWqHYI+Q==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1324077743025030084, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077735252984739, language=EN, label=Fig.2, caption=Spatiotemporal evolution of the matching degree netween the two systems in Guangdong Province, 2000-2020, figureFileSmall=Uc79TBfmmY9PQhd90BjGcg==, figureFileBig=shi+9i//vgoI3/x9/8HY5w==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1324077743150859205, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077735252984739, language=CN, label=图2, caption=2000—2020年广东省各地市两系统匹配度变化趋势, figureFileSmall=Uc79TBfmmY9PQhd90BjGcg==, figureFileBig=shi+9i//vgoI3/x9/8HY5w==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1324077743238939590, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077735252984739, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Evaluation indicator system for aging degree and medical resource supply in Guangdong Province

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
评价系统指标维度指标项方向指标权重
老年老年人口数量65岁及以上老年人口数（人）+0.281
人口老龄化水平65岁及以上老年人口比重（%）+0.146
老年人口密度65岁及以上老年人口/区域面积（人/km2）+0.573
医疗资源供给人力资源卫生技术人员数（人）+0.389
物力资源医疗卫生机构数（个）+0.323
床位数（张）+0.288
), ArticleFig(id=1324077743322825671, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077735252984739, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

广东省老龄化程度与医疗资源供给评价指标体系

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
评价系统指标维度指标项方向指标权重
老年老年人口数量65岁及以上老年人口数（人）+0.281
人口老龄化水平65岁及以上老年人口比重（%）+0.146
老年人口密度65岁及以上老年人口/区域面积（人/km2）+0.573
医疗资源供给人力资源卫生技术人员数（人）+0.389
物力资源医疗卫生机构数（个）+0.323
床位数（张）+0.288
), ArticleFig(id=1324077743457043400, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077735252984739, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Criteria for classifying coupling coordination types and matching degree levels

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协调类型耦合协调度（D）匹配度
失调衰退型0≤D<0.199重度不匹配
0.200≤D<0.299中度不匹配
0.300≤D<0.399轻度不匹配
过渡调和型0.400≤D<0.499勉强匹配
0.500≤D<0.599基本匹配
协调发展型0.600≤D<0.699初级匹配
0.700≤D<0.799良好匹配
0.800≤D≤1.000优质匹配
), ArticleFig(id=1324077743536735177, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077735252984739, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

耦合协调类型与匹配度划分标准

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
协调类型耦合协调度（D）匹配度
失调衰退型0≤D<0.199重度不匹配
0.200≤D<0.299中度不匹配
0.300≤D<0.399轻度不匹配
过渡调和型0.400≤D<0.499勉强匹配
0.500≤D<0.599基本匹配
协调发展型0.600≤D<0.699初级匹配
0.700≤D<0.799良好匹配
0.800≤D≤1.000优质匹配
), ArticleFig(id=1324077743591261130, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077735252984739, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Number of elderly population and medical resource supply in Guangdong Province, 2000—2020

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份65岁及以上老年人口医疗卫生机构（个）卫生技术人员（人）床位数（张）
数量（人）比重（%）密度（人/km2）
20005 259 9486.1729.258 984264 990168 143
20107 086 1506.7939.4116 541446 456300 083
202010 813 0008.5860.1455 900832 061564 701
年均增长率（%）3.671.663.679.575.896.24
), ArticleFig(id=1324077743670952907, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077735252984739, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

2000—2020年广东省老年人口数量及医疗资源供给情况

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份65岁及以上老年人口医疗卫生机构（个）卫生技术人员（人）床位数（张）
数量（人）比重（%）密度（人/km2）
20005 259 9486.1729.258 984264 990168 143
20107 086 1506.7939.4116 541446 456300 083
202010 813 0008.5860.1455 900832 061564 701
年均增长率（%）3.671.663.679.575.896.24
), ArticleFig(id=1324077743759033292, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077735252984739, language=EN, label=Table 4, caption=

Coupling indices of the two systems in various cities of Guangdong Province, 2000-2020

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地区地市2000年2010年2020年
CTDCTDCTD
珠三角广州1.0000.3160.5620.9970.4780.6910.9900.8790.933
深圳1.0000.0750.2740.9810.2580.5031.0000.6840.827
珠海0.6980.0400.1670.9110.0850.2780.9170.1840.411
佛山0.9270.1510.3740.9690.2390.4810.9750.4610.671
江门0.8570.1270.3310.9120.1590.3810.9720.2920.533
东莞0.7230.0700.2260.9990.1730.4151.0000.3890.623
中山0.4790.0830.1990.8680.1300.3360.8900.2650.486
肇庆0.8770.0880.2780.9190.1260.3400.9990.2640.513
惠州0.8380.0640.2320.9890.1070.3260.9650.2540.496
粤东汕头0.5280.2080.3310.6470.2670.4150.8180.4780.625
汕尾0.3210.0580.1370.6990.0930.2550.9470.1920.427
潮州0.4810.1100.2300.7300.1450.3250.9050.2780.502
揭阳0.5320.1250.2570.6750.1670.3350.9730.3710.601
粤西湛江0.9250.1350.3530.9530.2090.4461.0000.3920.626
茂名0.8020.1190.3090.8550.1770.3900.9990.3930.626
阳江0.5630.0740.2030.7340.1070.2800.9830.2040.448
粤北韶关0.9730.0820.2820.9550.1190.3371.0000.2140.462
梅州0.8590.1140.3130.9520.1630.3940.9990.2840.533
河源0.6970.0690.2190.7830.0950.2721.0000.1950.441
清远0.9030.0900.2850.9090.1180.3281.0000.2320.482
云浮0.5470.0700.1950.6590.0980.2540.9540.1780.412
), ArticleFig(id=1324077743851307981, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077735252984739, language=CN, label=表4, caption=

2000—2020年广东省各地市两系统耦合指数

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
地区地市2000年2010年2020年
CTDCTDCTD
珠三角广州1.0000.3160.5620.9970.4780.6910.9900.8790.933
深圳1.0000.0750.2740.9810.2580.5031.0000.6840.827
珠海0.6980.0400.1670.9110.0850.2780.9170.1840.411
佛山0.9270.1510.3740.9690.2390.4810.9750.4610.671
江门0.8570.1270.3310.9120.1590.3810.9720.2920.533
东莞0.7230.0700.2260.9990.1730.4151.0000.3890.623
中山0.4790.0830.1990.8680.1300.3360.8900.2650.486
肇庆0.8770.0880.2780.9190.1260.3400.9990.2640.513
惠州0.8380.0640.2320.9890.1070.3260.9650.2540.496
粤东汕头0.5280.2080.3310.6470.2670.4150.8180.4780.625
汕尾0.3210.0580.1370.6990.0930.2550.9470.1920.427
潮州0.4810.1100.2300.7300.1450.3250.9050.2780.502
揭阳0.5320.1250.2570.6750.1670.3350.9730.3710.601
粤西湛江0.9250.1350.3530.9530.2090.4461.0000.3920.626
茂名0.8020.1190.3090.8550.1770.3900.9990.3930.626
阳江0.5630.0740.2030.7340.1070.2800.9830.2040.448
粤北韶关0.9730.0820.2820.9550.1190.3371.0000.2140.462
梅州0.8590.1140.3130.9520.1630.3940.9990.2840.533
河源0.6970.0690.2190.7830.0950.2721.0000.1950.441
清远0.9030.0900.2850.9090.1180.3281.0000.2320.482
云浮0.5470.0700.1950.6590.0980.2540.9540.1780.412
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广东省老年人口与医疗资源供给的匹配度研究
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卢雅敏 , 姚卫光
现代预防医学 | 卫生政策与管理 2026,53(6): 1068-1074
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现代预防医学 |卫生政策与管理 2026 , 53 (6) : 1068 -1074
广东省老年人口与医疗资源供给的匹配度研究
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卢雅敏（2003—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：公共管理

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卢雅敏（2003—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：公共管理

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卢雅敏, 姚卫光
作者信息
  • 南方医科大学卫生管理学院，广东 广州 510515
通讯作者:
姚卫光，E-mail:
作者简介:

卢雅敏（2003—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：公共管理

Matching degree between the elderly population and the supply of medical resources, Guangdong
Ya-min LU, Wei-guang YAO
Affiliations
  • School of Health Management, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510515, China
出版时间: 2026-03-25 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202509135
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摘要
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目的

分析2000—2020年广东省老年人口与医疗资源供给的耦合协调关系以评价二者匹配度，为优化区域医疗资源配置，提升老年人群健康福祉，积极应对人口老龄化提供参考。

方法

基于人口普查和统计年鉴数据，采用熵值法和耦合协调度模型评价老年系统与医疗资源供给系统耦合协调情况及其匹配度。

结果

2000—2020年广东省老年人口与医疗资源供给两系统匹配状况从轻度不匹配向基本匹配发展。空间上，2020年所有地市均达到勉强匹配水平，但区域差异显著，珠三角和粤西地区匹配度高于粤东和粤北地区。

结论

广东省老年人口与医疗资源供给的匹配度整体提升，但区域差异依然存在。建议各地结合自身老龄化发展趋势，差异化配置医疗资源，并前瞻性地关注老年群体对慢病管理、康复护理等服务的结构性需求，以提升匹配的精准性与适应性。

老年人口  /  医疗资源供给  /  匹配度  /  广东
Objective

To analyze the coupling and coordination relationship between the elderly population and the supply of medical resources in Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2020, and to provide insights for optimizing regional medical resource allocation, improving health and well-being among the elderly, and proactively addressing population aging.

Methods

Using data from population censuses and statistical yearbooks, the entropy method and the coupling coordination degree model were applied to evaluate the coupling coordination and matching degree of the elderly system and medical resource supply system.

Results

From 2000 to 2020, the matching degrees of the elderly population and medical resource supply in Guangdong Province evolved from mild mismatch to basic match. Spatially, all cities had reached a minimally matched level by 2020, however, significant regional disparities remained. The Pearl River Delta and western Guangdong regions exhibited higher matching degrees than eastern and northern Guangdong.

Conclusion

The matching degree between the elderly population and medical resource supply in Guangdong has improved overall, though regional gaps remain. It is recommended that regions tailor medical resource allocation according to local aging trends, while proactively addressing the structural service needs of the elderly, such as chronic disease management and rehabilitation nursing, to enhance the precision and adaptability of resource matching.

Elderly population  /  Medical resource supply  /  Matching degree  /  Guangdong
卢雅敏, 姚卫光. 广东省老年人口与医疗资源供给的匹配度研究. 现代预防医学, 2026 , 53 (6) : 1068 -1074 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202509135
Ya-min LU, Wei-guang YAO. Matching degree between the elderly population and the supply of medical resources, Guangdong[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2026 , 53 (6) : 1068 -1074 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202509135
正文
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自2000年步入老龄化社会以来，我国人口结构老龄化持续加速。截至2024年末，全国65岁及以上老年人口已达2.20亿人，占总人口的15.6%[1]。随着老龄化程度加深，老年群体健康问题复杂多样，多病共存现象普遍[2]，其健康服务需求持续攀升。然而，现有医疗资源供给尚难以充分满足这一快速增长且日益多元的需求，存在明显的结构性矛盾[3]。为应对人口老龄化背景下因医疗资源供需不匹配而加剧的健康挑战，《“十四五”健康老龄化规划》明确提出要聚焦老年健康需求，推进医疗资源供给侧改革，推动老年健康服务高质量发展。因此，推动医疗资源与老年人口结构及健康需求相适应，已成为关乎国家整体健康与社会和谐稳定的重大议题。广东省作为改革开放前沿和人口经济大省，医疗资源供给虽位居全国前列，但存在区域分布不均问题，且在人口老龄化持续深化的背景下，老年人口与医疗资源之间的匹配矛盾日益突出。
既有围绕老年人口与医疗资源的研究，多从地理空间视角探讨老年人口医疗设施可达性[4-5]，或聚焦于老年健康资源配置的公平性[6-7]。近年来，亦有学者从全国层面对二者的匹配关系进行探讨[8-9]，但针对广东省这一老龄化进程加速、内部医疗资源差异显著的典型区域，当前研究尚显不足。故本研究以广东省为例，分析老年人口与医疗资源供给的匹配状况及其时空演变特征，以期为广东省乃至同类地区因地制宜优化医疗资源配置、推动医疗供给与人口老龄化进程高质量协调发展提供参考。
1　资料与方法
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1.1　资料来源
本研究依据广东省区域划分标准，将全省划分为珠三角、粤东、粤西和粤北四大区域。数据来源于广东省第五、第六、第七次人口普查资料，以及2000年、2010年和2020年《广东统计年鉴》。医疗资源数据的统计范围包括医院、基层医疗卫生机构、妇幼保健院和专科疾病防治院，数据无缺失值。
1.2　指标选取
参考相关政策和文献[9-12]，遵循科学性和可获得性的指标选取原则，本研究从人口老龄化带来的潜在需求角度构建“老年系统”评价体系，从老年人口数量、人口老龄化水平和老年人口密度三个维度评估老龄化综合发展水平（U1），该水平越高，代表区域老龄化程度越深，对卫生服务体系的潜在需求越大。医疗资源供给系统从人力资源和物力资源两个维度评估区域总体医疗资源供给水平（U2），具体指标详见表1。
1.3　研究方法
1.3.1　熵值法
熵值法是一种客观赋权方法，其权重取决于各指标数据本身的离散程度，能有效减少主观偏见[11]。因此本研究采用熵值法确定各项指标权重，运用线性加权法测度老龄化综合发展水平U1和医疗资源供给水平U2，见表1。把当年最高值设为100%，将U1和U2值划分为较低[0，25%)、中等[25%，50%)、较高[50%，75%)和高[75%，100%]四个等级[10]。
1.3.2　耦合协调度模型
耦合协调度模型源于物理学，利用耦合度C、综合协调指数T和耦合协调度D来分析两个或以上系统间相互作用、协同发展的程度[9]。具体公式如下：
α、β分别反映老年系统与医疗资源供给系统的重要程度，满足α+β=1，参考既往研究[8]，令α=β=0.5，表示两系统在协调发展过程中同等重要，耦合协调类型与匹配度划分标准[13]见表2。
2　结果
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2.1　基本情况
2020年，广东省65岁及以上老年人口1 081.30万人，占总人口8.58%，老年人口密度为60.14人/km2。2000—2020年间，老年人口数量及占总人口比重的年均增长率分别为3.67%、1.66%，提示全省人口老龄化程度持续加深。同期，全省医疗卫生机构数、卫生技术人员数和床位数年均增长率分别为9.57%、5.89%、6.24%，表明医疗资源总量稳步提升。见表3。
2.2　老龄化综合发展水平与医疗资源供给水平
2.2.1　老龄化综合发展水平
时间趋势上，2000年、2010年和2020年广东省老龄化综合发展水平U1均值分别为0.165、0.224、0.375，呈持续上升态势，由中等水平发展为较高水平。全省“较低-中等-较高-高”的城市等级结构由“2-13-4-2”演变为“1-11-6-3”。
空间分布上，各地老龄化综合发展水平存在一定差异，粤东地区整体高于其他地区。2020年，老龄化综合发展水平最高和最低的城市分别为广州（0.758）、惠州（为0.188）。见图1。
2.2.2　医疗资源供给水平
时间趋势上，2000年、2010年和2020年广东省医疗资源供给水平U2均值分别为0.051、0.110、0.300，整体稳步提升，由较低供给水平提升至中等供给水平。全省“较低-中等-较高-高”的城市供给等级结构由“18-2-0-1”演变为“11-8-1-1”。
空间分布上，医疗资源供给水平存在区域不均衡，珠三角和粤西地区高于粤东和粤北地区。区域内差异也较显著，如同属珠三角区域的广州和珠海，分别为2020年全省供给水平最高（1.000）和最低（0.111）的城市，见图1。
2.3　老年人口与医疗资源供给系统耦合协调水平及匹配度
2.3.1　耦合度
2000—2020年，广东省两系统耦合度C值由0.850升至0.994，表明两系统间关联程度不断增强，互动关系良好。各地市C值普遍提升，其中汕尾增幅最大。2020年，全省21个地市C值均高于0.815，说明系统间联系紧密，相互作用显著。见表4。
2.3.2　综合协调指数
2000—2020年，两系统综合协调指数T值由0.108升至0.337，表明两系统整体发展水平稳步提高。21个地市的T值均有所提升，其中增幅最大的为深圳市。2020年，广州、深圳、汕头、佛山等地市表现出相对较高水平的协调指数，见表4。
2.3.3　耦合协调度及匹配度
总体来看，全省两系统耦合协调度D值呈上升趋势，匹配度由轻度不匹配向基本匹配发展。2000年，除广州外，其他地市均属失调衰退型，老年人口与医疗资源供给之间存在明显不匹配，其中汕尾、珠海、云浮、中山为重度不匹配型，供给相对滞后。至2020年，全省已无失调衰退型城市，珠三角、粤东、粤西、粤北地区过渡调和型城市数量分别为5、2、1、5；协调发展型城市数量分别为4、2、2、0。全部地市均达勉强匹配以上水平，广州、深圳实现优质匹配。总的来看，区域间存在一定差异，珠三角和粤西地区匹配度高于粤东和粤北地区，见图2。
3　讨论
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3.1　老龄化程度持续加深，空间异质性明显
2000—2020年全省老龄化综合发展水平持续上升，且呈现出粤东、珠三角地区高于粤西、粤北地区的空间格局。究其原因，一是公共健康和生活质量的普遍改善促使老年人口的预期寿命延长，老年人口规模持续扩大，加速了整体人口老龄化进程；二是传统生育观念与人口流动致使老年人口空间结构不均衡[14]。粤东地区受传统生育观念影响，早期人口基数较大，随时间推移形成相对庞大的“存量”老年群体；珠三角地区作为全国主要人口迁入地，大量劳动力“就地老化”及随迁老人涌入，面临突出的“增量”压力。两者共同作用，使得粤东和珠三角地区的老年人口密度显著高于粤北、粤西地区。
3.2　医疗资源供给水平稳步提升，但总量和结构仍需优化
2000—2020年，全省医疗资源供给水平整体提升，中等以上供给城市从3个增至10个，广州、深圳等核心城市已迈入较高供给等级，这与广东省持续加大卫生投入密切相关[15]。但当前供给仍存两大短板：一是供给总量相对于快速增长的老年人口和与日益加剧的老龄化态势仍显不足，与老年群体需求仍有差距；二是资源内部结构有待优化。具体表现为，现有资源配置侧重于普通综合性服务，针对老年慢性病管理、康复护理、长期照护、安宁疗护等多样化、专业化服务供给相对短缺，难以满足老龄化带来的需求转型，存在明显的结构性矛盾[16]。
3.3　老年人口与医疗资源供给系统匹配度整体向好，但区域差异依然存在
研究期间，广东省两系统耦合协调关系总体向好。2020年，所有地市均达勉强匹配及以上水平，表明医疗资源供给对老龄化压力的响应力得到增强。但珠三角、粤西地区匹配度仍高于粤东、粤北地区，区域差异依然显著。研究发现，匹配度偏低地市的系统整体发展水平和关联度虽有所改善，但匹配度没有得到有效改善。究其原因，一是供给系统存在发展不充分与配置效率不高问题。一方面，受地区财政能力与历史投入[17-18]影响，珠三角城市凭借雄厚的经济实力和先发优势，持续扩大优质医疗资源存量，形成“马太效应”；而粤东、粤北地区受限于地方财力与基础薄弱，供给能力提升缓慢。另一方面，部分地区资源利用低效，导致有限的资源无法有效转化为对老年人口健康的实际保障能力，供给系统对老年人口变化的响应能力较弱[11]；二是当前卫生资源规划主要依据人口配置标准，对老年群体特殊的疾病谱、服务模式等因素考虑不足[19]，供给与需求之间出现结构性错配，即便资源总量增加，也无法精准转化为老年人可及、适用的服务，致使匹配度改善滞后于系统发展水平的提升。
3.4　建议
根据以上讨论，结合广东省人口老龄化和医疗资源配置的现状，本研究提出如下政策建议：
一是实施差异化精准配置，优化资源布局与服务结构。针对全省老龄化程度持续加深、但表现形式与老龄化来源存在区域异质性的特点，卫生规划应实施空间与结构差异化配置策略。空间布局上，粤东地区老年人口密度持续较高，应在卫生规划中系统融入老龄化因素，系统性整合社会保障、老年服务与健康支撑资源，强化跨部门协同，并在人力、物力投入上予以倾斜，前瞻构建与之适应的健康服务体系。珠三角地区应科学预测劳动力“就地老化”及随迁老人涌入带来的“增量”压力，推动二级及以下医院向康复护理、医养结合方向转型，并通过税费减免、用地保障等政策激励社会力量参与，拓宽供给渠道。服务结构上，应加快补齐老年慢病管理、长期照护、安宁疗护等服务短板，推动构建覆盖“预防—治疗—康复—长期照护”全链条的适老化服务体系[16]，破解结构性矛盾。
二是强化数智化提质增效，提升服务效能与可及性。针对资源利用效率低下问题，需依托技术创新提升系统运行效能。一方面，应加快AI辅助诊断、远程监测与云计算等数字技术在老年健康服务场景中的融合应用，以技术创新培育老年健康服务新质生产力，实现服务模式升级。另一方面，通过远程医疗、5G智慧诊疗等手段赋能基层医疗卫生机构，提升其对老年常见病的连续性管理能力，促进优质资源下沉与患者合理分流，增强服务体系的整体响应力与可及性[20]。
三是完善区域协同共享机制，促进均衡发展与供需匹配。为缩小区域差异、增强资源匹配度，需强化跨区域、跨层级的资源流动与共享机制，进一步完善全省远程医疗协作网络，推动建立区域对口帮扶机制，将老年医学、康复护理等领域的优质资源向粤东、粤北等薄弱地区辐射。同时，建立健全老年群体需求表达与响应机制[19]，通过建立常态化的需求调研与反馈渠道，增强医疗资源配置的需求导向性与精准度，确保资源能够精准转化为老年人可及、适用的服务，切实提升其健康获得感与服务满意度。
4　局限与展望
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受限于公开统计数据的连贯性与细分程度，本研究在医疗资源供给的指标选取上，未能进一步区分机构类型和服务类型，在后续深入分析中，应进一步聚焦在为老年人提供服务的医疗机构或科室，完善指标构建与数据采集，以更全面精准地反映老年人口所需的医疗服务。
基金
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  • 广州公共卫生服务体系建设研究基地资助项目(2024-2026)
文献
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2026年第53卷第6期
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202509135
  • 接收时间：2025-09-08
  • 首发时间：2026-11-02
  • 出版时间：2026-03-25
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  • 收稿日期：2025-09-08
基金
广州公共卫生服务体系建设研究基地资助项目(2024-2026)
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    南方医科大学卫生管理学院，广东 广州 510515

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小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
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