Article(id=1324077658128130277, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1324077560820282023, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202510041, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1759939200000, receivedDateStr=2025-10-09, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793614313871, onlineDateStr=2026-11-02, pubDate=1774368000000, pubDateStr=2026-03-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793614313871, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-11-02, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793614313871, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793614313871, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1324077560820282023, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2026', volume='53', issue='6', pageStart='961', pageEnd='1152', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1774368000000', pubDateStr='2026-03-25', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=0, createTime=1793614290671, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793614391469, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1324077983656444429, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1324077560820282023, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1324077983660638734, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1324077560820282023, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=1009, endPage=1016, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1324077658342039782, articleId=1324077658128130277, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Influencing factors and construction of a nomogram prediction model for secondary fungal infection in pneumoconiosis patients with bacterial pneumonia, columnId=1228016570660745413, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Environmental and Occupational Health, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To identify risk factors for secondary fungal infection in patients with pneumoconiosis complicated by bacterial pneumonia and to develop a nomogram prediction model.

Methods

Clinical data of patients admitted to a tertiary occupational disease hospital between December 2021 and July 2024 were retrospectively analyzed and randomly divided into training and testing sets (7:3). Variables were selected using LASSO and multivariable logistic regression to construct a nomogram. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

Among 641 patients, 213 developed secondary pulmonary fungal infection. Multivariable analysis showed that invasive procedures (OR=3.440, 95% CI:2.111-5.699), elevated immature granulocyte percentage (OR=2.294, 95% CI:1.254-4.402), systemic glucocorticoid use (OR=2.196, 95% CI:1.114-4.327), repeated hospitalization (OR=2.094, 95% CI:1.280-3.464), and increasing age (OR=1.059, 95% CI:1.034-1.085) were associated with increased risk, whereas higher large platelet count was associated with reduced risk (OR=0.980, 95% CI:0.968-0.992). The nomogram achieved AUCs of 0.818 (95% CI:0.777-0.858) in the training set and 0.797 (95% CI:0.688-0.906) in the testing set. Calibration and DCA demonstrated good agreement and clinical net benefit.

Conclusion

The nomogram accurately predicts secondary fungal infection risk in this population, demonstrating favorable performance and potential for early risk stratification and targeted intervention.

, authors=Yi-fei WANG, Yun-di JIANG, Wen DU, Li-jun PENG, Yu-qin YAO, Qin ZHANG, Ding-zi ZHOU, authorsList=Yi-fei WANG, Yun-di JIANG, Wen DU, Li-jun PENG, Yu-qin YAO, Qin ZHANG, Ding-zi ZHOU, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Ding-zi ZHOU, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1324077660082675957, articleId=1324077658128130277, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=CN, title=尘肺合并细菌性肺炎患者继发真菌感染的影响因素分析及列线图预测模型构建, columnId=1228016571273113811, journalTitle=现代预防医学, columnName=环境与职业卫生, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的

探究尘肺病合并细菌性肺炎继发真菌感染的危险因素并构建列线图预测模型。

方法

回顾分析2021年12月至2024年7月某三甲职业病防治院尘肺合并细菌性肺炎患者临床资料,按7:3随机分为训练集与测试集。经LASSO及多因素logistic回归筛选变量并构建列线图模型,采用ROC曲线下面积(AUC)、校准曲线与决策曲线分析(DCA)评估模型的区分度、校准度及临床实用性。

结果

共纳入641例尘肺合并细菌性肺炎患者,其中继发肺真菌感染213例。多因素logistic回归分析显示:侵入性操作(OR=3.440,95% CI:2.111~5.699)、未成熟粒细胞百分比升高(OR=2.294,95% CI:1.254~4.402)、全身性糖皮质激素使用(OR=2.196,95% CI:1.114~4.327)、重复住院史(OR=2.094,95% CI:1.280~3.464)及年龄增加(OR=1.059,95% CI:1.034~1.085)与继发肺真菌感染风险升高相关,而大血小板数升高与风险降低相关(OR=0.980,95% CI:0.968~0.992)。基于上述变量构建的列线图模型在训练集与测试集AUC分别为0.818(95% CI:0.777~0.858)和0.797(95% CI:0.688~0.906)。校准曲线显示预测与实测一致性良好, DCA显示模型在较宽阈值概率范围内具有临床净获益。

结论

本研究构建的列线图模型能有效预测尘肺合并细菌性肺炎患者继发真菌感染的风险,具有良好的预测性能与临床实用价值,有助于早期识别高危患者并指导干预。

, authors=王艺霏, 江云笛, 杜文, 彭莉君, 姚于勤, 张勤, 周丁子, authorsList=王艺霏, 江云笛, 杜文, 彭莉君, 姚于勤, 张勤, 周丁子, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=周丁子, authorNote=

王艺霏(2000—),女,硕士在读,研究方向:劳动卫生与环境卫生学

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周丁子,E-mail:
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Indian Journal of Critical Care Medicine: Peer-reviewed, Official Publication of Indian Society of Critical Care Medicine, 2022, 26(2): 216-223., articleTitle=Evaluation of immature granulocyte count as the earliest biomarker for sepsis, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1324077669129789785, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077658128130277, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2021, volume=54, issue=11, pageStart=2595, pageEnd=2610.e7, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[21], rfOrder=28, authorNames=Wu YF, Zeng ZM, Guo YB, journalName=Immunity, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Wu YF, Zeng ZM, Guo YB, et al. Candida albicans elicits protective allergic responses via platelet mediated T helper 2 and T helper 17 cell polarization[J]. 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Comparison of clinical characteristics between the training and test sets

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
临床特征训练集(n=455)测试集(n=186)统计值(H/χ2)P值
继发肺真菌感染[n(%)]157(34.5)56(30.1)0.0530.818
年龄[岁,M(P25,P75)]56.00(51.00, 64.00)56.00(51.00, 65.00)0.0560.955
BMI [kg/m2,M(P25,P75)]22.23(19.53, 24.80)22.04(19.52, 25.18)0.2440.808
总接尘工龄[年,M(P25,P75)]16.00(10.00, 26.00)18.00(10.75, 25.00)0.2000.842
住院天数[天,M(P25,P75)]14.00(10.00, 18.00)14.00(10.00, 18.00)0.0360.971
尘肺分期[n(%)]0.0390.981
壹期94(21.0)38(20.7)
贰期92(20.6)37(20.1)
叁期261(58.4)109(59.2)
尘肺分型[n(%)]0.6480.723
矽肺360(80.5)148(80.4)
煤工尘肺48(10.7)17(9.2)
其他类型39(8.7)19(10.3)
吸烟[n(%)]2.9710.226
从不吸烟98(21.9)31(16.8)
已戒烟282(63.1)129(70.1)
仍在吸烟67(15.0)24(13.0)
氧疗[n(%)]342(76.5)134(72.8)0.7660.381
重复住院[n(%)]209(46.8)85(46.2)0.0020.968
无创机械通气[n(%)]36(8.1)9(4.9)1.5200.218
侵入性操作[n(%)]180(40.3)80(43.5)0.4300.512
使用全身性糖皮质激素69(15.4)25(13.6)0.2210.638
使用吸入性糖皮质激素177(39.6)70(38.0)0.0750.784
抗生素联合使用[n(%)]3.0880.378
未使用抗生素34(7.6)17(9.2)
单药治疗300(67.1)117(63.6)
二联用药89(19.9)34(18.5)
三联及以上用药24(5.4)16(8.7)
合并症[n(%)]
肺结核56(12.5)21(11.4)0.0650.799
肺源性心脏病89(19.9)35(19.0)0.0210.885
慢性阻塞性肺病250(55.9)92(50.0)1.6140.204
支气管哮喘25(5.6)12(6.5)0.0700.791
呼吸衰竭57(12.8)21(11.4)0.1100.740
糖尿病26(5.8)12(6.5)0.0240.877
), ArticleFig(id=1324077665820483893, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077658128130277, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

训练集和测试集患者临床特征比较

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
临床特征训练集(n=455)测试集(n=186)统计值(H/χ2)P值
继发肺真菌感染[n(%)]157(34.5)56(30.1)0.0530.818
年龄[岁,M(P25,P75)]56.00(51.00, 64.00)56.00(51.00, 65.00)0.0560.955
BMI [kg/m2,M(P25,P75)]22.23(19.53, 24.80)22.04(19.52, 25.18)0.2440.808
总接尘工龄[年,M(P25,P75)]16.00(10.00, 26.00)18.00(10.75, 25.00)0.2000.842
住院天数[天,M(P25,P75)]14.00(10.00, 18.00)14.00(10.00, 18.00)0.0360.971
尘肺分期[n(%)]0.0390.981
壹期94(21.0)38(20.7)
贰期92(20.6)37(20.1)
叁期261(58.4)109(59.2)
尘肺分型[n(%)]0.6480.723
矽肺360(80.5)148(80.4)
煤工尘肺48(10.7)17(9.2)
其他类型39(8.7)19(10.3)
吸烟[n(%)]2.9710.226
从不吸烟98(21.9)31(16.8)
已戒烟282(63.1)129(70.1)
仍在吸烟67(15.0)24(13.0)
氧疗[n(%)]342(76.5)134(72.8)0.7660.381
重复住院[n(%)]209(46.8)85(46.2)0.0020.968
无创机械通气[n(%)]36(8.1)9(4.9)1.5200.218
侵入性操作[n(%)]180(40.3)80(43.5)0.4300.512
使用全身性糖皮质激素69(15.4)25(13.6)0.2210.638
使用吸入性糖皮质激素177(39.6)70(38.0)0.0750.784
抗生素联合使用[n(%)]3.0880.378
未使用抗生素34(7.6)17(9.2)
单药治疗300(67.1)117(63.6)
二联用药89(19.9)34(18.5)
三联及以上用药24(5.4)16(8.7)
合并症[n(%)]
肺结核56(12.5)21(11.4)0.0650.799
肺源性心脏病89(19.9)35(19.0)0.0210.885
慢性阻塞性肺病250(55.9)92(50.0)1.6140.204
支气管哮喘25(5.6)12(6.5)0.0700.791
呼吸衰竭57(12.8)21(11.4)0.1100.740
糖尿病26(5.8)12(6.5)0.0240.877
), ArticleFig(id=1324077665904369974, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077658128130277, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Comparison of laboratory and imaging characteristics between the training and testing sets

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检验项目/影像学特征[M(P25,P75)/例(%)]训练集(n=455)测试集(n=186)统计值(H/χ2)P值
嗜酸性粒细胞百分比(%)1.60(0.80,3.10)1.75(0.88,2.90)-0.0380.970
嗜碱性粒细胞百分比(%)0.40(0.20, 0.50)0.40(0.20, 0.52)-0.3140.754
未成熟粒细胞百分比(%)0.20(0.10, 0.30)0.20(0.10, 0.40)-0.9720.331
白细胞计数(109/L)6.78(5.53, 8.59)6.92(5.79, 8.67)-0.8850.376
红细胞计数(1012/L)4.74(4.33, 5.09)4.70(4.23, 5.11)-0.6380.523
大血小板数(109/L)58.00(45.00, 69.00)57.00(46.00, 71.00)-0.360.719
白蛋白(g/L)40.50(37.75, 43.00)40.45(37.70, 42.85)-0.1050.916
糖(mmol/L)5.00(4.60, 5.60)5.10(4.50, 5.80)0.3460.730
超敏C反应蛋白(mg/L)8.07(1.96, 33.65)9.70(2.26, 49.49)-1.5480.122
血常规衍生复合炎症指标
预后营养指数(PNI)46.95(43.05, 50.30)46.85(42.89, 50.73)-0.0830.934
中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值(NLR)3.88(2.73, 6.36)4.16(2.79, 6.29)-0.5470.585
胸腔积液[n(%)]126(28.2)52(28.3)0.0001.000
斑片影[n(%)]185(41.4)79(42.9)0.0730.788
实变影[n(%)]37(8.3)10(5.4)1.1430.285
磨玻璃影[n(%)]109(24.4)42(22.8)0.0990.753
纵膈/肺门淋巴结[n(%)]0.2750.872
未肿大45(10.1)20(10.9)
稍大/显示95(21.3)36(19.6)
增大/增多307(68.7)128(69.6)
胸膜增厚粘连[n(%)]375(83.9)154(83.7)0.0001.000
小叶间隔增厚[n(%)]70(15.7)21(11.4)1.5760.209
支气管扩张[n(%)]64(14.3)19(10.3)1.4850.223
网格状影/蜂窝状影[n(%)]31(6.9)12(6.5)0.0000.989
支气管壁增厚[n(%)]29(6.5)8(4.3)0.7280.393
), ArticleFig(id=1324077665992450359, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077658128130277, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

训练集和测试集患者检验、影像特征结果比较

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检验项目/影像学特征[M(P25,P75)/例(%)]训练集(n=455)测试集(n=186)统计值(H/χ2)P值
嗜酸性粒细胞百分比(%)1.60(0.80,3.10)1.75(0.88,2.90)-0.0380.970
嗜碱性粒细胞百分比(%)0.40(0.20, 0.50)0.40(0.20, 0.52)-0.3140.754
未成熟粒细胞百分比(%)0.20(0.10, 0.30)0.20(0.10, 0.40)-0.9720.331
白细胞计数(109/L)6.78(5.53, 8.59)6.92(5.79, 8.67)-0.8850.376
红细胞计数(1012/L)4.74(4.33, 5.09)4.70(4.23, 5.11)-0.6380.523
大血小板数(109/L)58.00(45.00, 69.00)57.00(46.00, 71.00)-0.360.719
白蛋白(g/L)40.50(37.75, 43.00)40.45(37.70, 42.85)-0.1050.916
糖(mmol/L)5.00(4.60, 5.60)5.10(4.50, 5.80)0.3460.730
超敏C反应蛋白(mg/L)8.07(1.96, 33.65)9.70(2.26, 49.49)-1.5480.122
血常规衍生复合炎症指标
预后营养指数(PNI)46.95(43.05, 50.30)46.85(42.89, 50.73)-0.0830.934
中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值(NLR)3.88(2.73, 6.36)4.16(2.79, 6.29)-0.5470.585
胸腔积液[n(%)]126(28.2)52(28.3)0.0001.000
斑片影[n(%)]185(41.4)79(42.9)0.0730.788
实变影[n(%)]37(8.3)10(5.4)1.1430.285
磨玻璃影[n(%)]109(24.4)42(22.8)0.0990.753
纵膈/肺门淋巴结[n(%)]0.2750.872
未肿大45(10.1)20(10.9)
稍大/显示95(21.3)36(19.6)
增大/增多307(68.7)128(69.6)
胸膜增厚粘连[n(%)]375(83.9)154(83.7)0.0001.000
小叶间隔增厚[n(%)]70(15.7)21(11.4)1.5760.209
支气管扩张[n(%)]64(14.3)19(10.3)1.4850.223
网格状影/蜂窝状影[n(%)]31(6.9)12(6.5)0.0000.989
支气管壁增厚[n(%)]29(6.5)8(4.3)0.7280.393
), ArticleFig(id=1324077666101502264, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077658128130277, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Multivariate logistic regression analysis

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变量回归系数标准误Z值P值OR(95%CI)
侵入性操作1.2360.2534.887<0.0013.440(2.111~5.699)
未成熟粒细胞百分比0.8300.3152.6400.0082.294(1.254~4.402)
全身性糖皮质激素使用0.7870.3452.2820.0232.196(1.114~4.327)
重复住院0.7390.2532.9180.0042.094(1.280~3.464)
呼吸衰竭0.7400.3791.9510.0522.093(0.994~4.424)
无创机械通气0.6310.4971.2690.2041.879(0.715~5.081)
胸腔积液0.4800.2751.7420.0821.616(0.939~2.772)
肺源性心脏病0.3260.3221.0110.3121.385(0.732~2.596)
糖尿病0.1180.0731.6190.1051.126(0.976~1.306)
年龄0.0570.0124.695<0.0011.059(1.034~1.085)
大血小板数-0.0200.006-3.1960.0010.980(0.968~0.992)
体质量指数(BMI)-0.0650.037-1.7490.0800.937(0.871~1.007)
), ArticleFig(id=1324077666185388345, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077658128130277, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

多因素logistic回归分析

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变量回归系数标准误Z值P值OR(95%CI)
侵入性操作1.2360.2534.887<0.0013.440(2.111~5.699)
未成熟粒细胞百分比0.8300.3152.6400.0082.294(1.254~4.402)
全身性糖皮质激素使用0.7870.3452.2820.0232.196(1.114~4.327)
重复住院0.7390.2532.9180.0042.094(1.280~3.464)
呼吸衰竭0.7400.3791.9510.0522.093(0.994~4.424)
无创机械通气0.6310.4971.2690.2041.879(0.715~5.081)
胸腔积液0.4800.2751.7420.0821.616(0.939~2.772)
肺源性心脏病0.3260.3221.0110.3121.385(0.732~2.596)
糖尿病0.1180.0731.6190.1051.126(0.976~1.306)
年龄0.0570.0124.695<0.0011.059(1.034~1.085)
大血小板数-0.0200.006-3.1960.0010.980(0.968~0.992)
体质量指数(BMI)-0.0650.037-1.7490.0800.937(0.871~1.007)
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尘肺合并细菌性肺炎患者继发真菌感染的影响因素分析及列线图预测模型构建
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王艺霏 , 江云笛 , 杜文 , 彭莉君 , 姚于勤 , 张勤 , 周丁子
现代预防医学 | 环境与职业卫生 2026,53(6): 1009-1016
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现代预防医学 |环境与职业卫生 2026 , 53 (6) : 1009 -1016
尘肺合并细菌性肺炎患者继发真菌感染的影响因素分析及列线图预测模型构建
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王艺霏, 江云笛, 杜文, 彭莉君, 姚于勤, 张勤, 周丁子
作者信息
  • 四川大学华西公共卫生学院(华西第四医院),华西职业性尘肺病队列工作组,成都 610041
通讯作者:
周丁子,E-mail:
作者简介:

王艺霏(2000—),女,硕士在读,研究方向:劳动卫生与环境卫生学

Influencing factors and construction of a nomogram prediction model for secondary fungal infection in pneumoconiosis patients with bacterial pneumonia
Yi-fei WANG, Yun-di JIANG, Wen DU, Li-jun PENG, Yu-qin YAO, Qin ZHANG, Ding-zi ZHOU
Affiliations
  • West China School of Public Health (West China Fourth Hospital), Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China
出版时间: 2026-03-25 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202510041
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目的

探究尘肺病合并细菌性肺炎继发真菌感染的危险因素并构建列线图预测模型。

方法

回顾分析2021年12月至2024年7月某三甲职业病防治院尘肺合并细菌性肺炎患者临床资料,按7:3随机分为训练集与测试集。经LASSO及多因素logistic回归筛选变量并构建列线图模型,采用ROC曲线下面积(AUC)、校准曲线与决策曲线分析(DCA)评估模型的区分度、校准度及临床实用性。

结果

共纳入641例尘肺合并细菌性肺炎患者,其中继发肺真菌感染213例。多因素logistic回归分析显示:侵入性操作(OR=3.440,95% CI:2.111~5.699)、未成熟粒细胞百分比升高(OR=2.294,95% CI:1.254~4.402)、全身性糖皮质激素使用(OR=2.196,95% CI:1.114~4.327)、重复住院史(OR=2.094,95% CI:1.280~3.464)及年龄增加(OR=1.059,95% CI:1.034~1.085)与继发肺真菌感染风险升高相关,而大血小板数升高与风险降低相关(OR=0.980,95% CI:0.968~0.992)。基于上述变量构建的列线图模型在训练集与测试集AUC分别为0.818(95% CI:0.777~0.858)和0.797(95% CI:0.688~0.906)。校准曲线显示预测与实测一致性良好, DCA显示模型在较宽阈值概率范围内具有临床净获益。

结论

本研究构建的列线图模型能有效预测尘肺合并细菌性肺炎患者继发真菌感染的风险,具有良好的预测性能与临床实用价值,有助于早期识别高危患者并指导干预。

尘肺病  /  细菌性肺炎  /  肺真菌感染  /  列线图  /  预测模型
Objective

To identify risk factors for secondary fungal infection in patients with pneumoconiosis complicated by bacterial pneumonia and to develop a nomogram prediction model.

Methods

Clinical data of patients admitted to a tertiary occupational disease hospital between December 2021 and July 2024 were retrospectively analyzed and randomly divided into training and testing sets (7:3). Variables were selected using LASSO and multivariable logistic regression to construct a nomogram. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

Among 641 patients, 213 developed secondary pulmonary fungal infection. Multivariable analysis showed that invasive procedures (OR=3.440, 95% CI:2.111-5.699), elevated immature granulocyte percentage (OR=2.294, 95% CI:1.254-4.402), systemic glucocorticoid use (OR=2.196, 95% CI:1.114-4.327), repeated hospitalization (OR=2.094, 95% CI:1.280-3.464), and increasing age (OR=1.059, 95% CI:1.034-1.085) were associated with increased risk, whereas higher large platelet count was associated with reduced risk (OR=0.980, 95% CI:0.968-0.992). The nomogram achieved AUCs of 0.818 (95% CI:0.777-0.858) in the training set and 0.797 (95% CI:0.688-0.906) in the testing set. Calibration and DCA demonstrated good agreement and clinical net benefit.

Conclusion

The nomogram accurately predicts secondary fungal infection risk in this population, demonstrating favorable performance and potential for early risk stratification and targeted intervention.

Pneumoconiosis  /  Bacterial pneumonia  /  Lung diseases, Fungal  /  Nomograms  /  Predictive model
王艺霏, 江云笛, 杜文, 彭莉君, 姚于勤, 张勤, 周丁子. 尘肺合并细菌性肺炎患者继发真菌感染的影响因素分析及列线图预测模型构建. 现代预防医学, 2026 , 53 (6) : 1009 -1016 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202510041
Yi-fei WANG, Yun-di JIANG, Wen DU, Li-jun PENG, Yu-qin YAO, Qin ZHANG, Ding-zi ZHOU. Influencing factors and construction of a nomogram prediction model for secondary fungal infection in pneumoconiosis patients with bacterial pneumonia[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2026 , 53 (6) : 1009 -1016 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202510041
职业性尘肺病是劳动者因长期吸入生产性粉尘,导致以肺组织弥漫性纤维化为主要病理改变的一类肺部疾病,其报告病例数长期居我国各类职业病首位。患者因呼吸道的清除与防御功能受损,极易并发肺部感染,是导致病情恶化甚至死亡的重要原因[1]。其中,真菌感染起病隐匿,治疗周期长,预后欠佳[2],且多为条件致病菌,常继发于其他病原体感染或全身免疫功能低下[3],而尘肺的肺部病理环境可增加患者的感染风险[4]。当尘肺合并细菌性肺炎继发真菌感染时,两者临床表现易混淆,常被误判为细菌感染控制不佳,导致漏诊与治疗延迟[5]。现有研究多聚焦病原学分布,缺乏针对继发真菌感染这一特定病程的风险预测模型[6]。鉴于细菌与真菌治疗策略迥异,本研究拟整合患者入院初期的临床、实验室及影像学数据,构建可视化预测工具,旨在协助早期识别高危患者并优化抗感染决策。
回顾性分析2021年12月10日至2024年7月31日某三甲职业病防治院住院的尘肺合并细菌性肺炎患者。纳入标准:①符合《职业性尘肺病诊断标准》(GBZ 70-2015);②细菌性肺炎经微生物学或临床诊断确诊;③病历资料完整;④入院后48 h内肺部感染相关病原学检查(痰培养/BALF培养/G/GM)阴性,或入院初期无活动性真菌感染的诊断及治疗记录。排除标准:①入院即诊断肺真菌感染并有抗真菌药物治疗史;②艾滋病或其他严重免疫缺陷;③恶性肿瘤;④住院时间≤24 h;⑤资料缺失严重;⑥女性患者:因存在职业禁忌,本研究未纳入女性患者[7]。最终纳入641例患者,其中单纯细菌性肺炎428例、继发肺真菌感染213例,按7:3随机分为训练集455例和测试集186例。本研究通过四川大学华西第四医院/华西公共卫生学院伦理审查(HXSY-EC-2021053)。
诊断标准:①尘肺病:符合《GBZ 70-2015职业性尘肺病的诊断》,由职业病诊断机构明确诊断为尘肺病。②细菌性肺炎:参考《急诊成人社区获得性肺炎临床实践指南(2024版)》[8],符合病原学证据阳性;或在典型临床症状、影像学炎性改变及实验室炎症指标异常中满足≥2项,并由临床医师诊断为细菌性肺炎。③肺真菌感染:参考《侵袭性肺真菌病诊断路径专家共识(2024版)》[9],本研究以痰或支气管肺泡灌洗液(BALF)真菌培养阳性为主要依据,并经临床综合评估最终确诊。
本研究通过电子病历、实验室信息与医学影像系统,结合华西职业性尘肺队列问卷系统性收集资料,主要包括:①临床资料:人口学特征[体质量指数(BMI)=体质量(kg)/身高2(m2)]、职业特征、合并症、干预措施(氧疗、糖皮质激素、抗生素、侵入性操作等)、重复住院史(本次入院前一年内住院≥2次)及住院天数;②影像学资料:首次肺部感染相关CT体征,涵盖肺实质/间质性病变、气道改变及胸膜/胸腔改变等,以影像系统记录与放射科报告为准;③实验室指标:血常规、生化指标及用于诊断细菌性肺炎与肺真菌感染的病原学检查结果(如痰涂片与培养、BALF培养、G试验、GM试验等);④炎症复合指标[10]:中性粒细胞与淋巴细胞比值(NLR)=中性粒细胞计数/淋巴细胞计数;预后营养指数(PNI)=血清白蛋白+5×淋巴细胞计数。
采用R软件(4.3.2)进行统计分析。使用VIM包对训练集缺失值进行可视化,剔除缺失>20%的变量,其余采用mice包进行多重插补,并将训练集插补模型应用于测试集以避免信息泄露。将符合正态分布的计量资料以表示,采用t检验或方差分析。非正态资料以M(P25,P75)表示,采用Mann-Whitney U检验或Kruskal-Wallis检验。计数资料以例数n(%)表示,采用χ2检验或Fisher精确概率法。双侧检验,检验水准α=0.05。
为降低多重共线性与过拟合风险,使用glmnet包进行LASSO回归筛选变量(10折交叉验证),选取lambda.1se对应的非零变量进入多因素logistic回归。并使用rms包构建继发肺真菌感染风险列线图。采用Bootstrap法进行内部验证,结合校准曲线与Hosmer-Lemeshow检验评估模型校准度。通过受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)评价模型区分度。以决策曲线分析(DCA)评估不同阈值概率下的净获益。此外,为评估多维度整合的增量预测价值,分别构建临床、实验室与影像学特征单维度模型,并与综合模型进行AUC比较。最后,在测试集中对模型的区分度、校准度及临床净获益进行独立验证。
训练集中共纳入患者455例,其中继发肺真菌感染157例(34.5%)。测试集共纳入患者186例,其中继发肺真菌感染56例(30.1%)。两组患者在人口学、临床特征、影像学表现及实验室指标等方面分布均衡,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05),基线资料具有良好可比性(见表1-2)。
纳入与继发真菌感染可能相关且具有潜在临床意义的候选变量进行LASSO回归,经10折交叉验证确定最优惩罚参数(lambda.1se=0.0437),筛选出12个潜在预测因素:侵入性操作、全身性糖皮质激素、呼吸衰竭、胸腔积液、未成熟粒细胞百分比、肺源性心脏病、无创机械通气、重复住院史、糖尿病、年龄、BMI及大血小板数(图2)。
多因素logistic回归进一步证实,侵入性操作、全身性糖皮质激素使用、未成熟粒细胞百分比、重复住院史、年龄及大血小板数与继发肺真菌感染风险显著相关(P<0.05)(表3)。基于上述6个稳定预测因子构建列线图模型(图3)。
为评估多维度信息整合的增量价值,本研究构建临床、实验室、影像学三个单一维度模型及综合模型进行对比。(1)区分度评价:在训练集中,综合模型的区分能力最佳,其受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)为0.818(95% CI:0.777~0.858),高于临床模型(AUC=0.773,95% CI: 0.726~0.819)、实验室模型(AUC=0.648,95% CI: 0.595~0.702)及影像学模型(AUC=0.604,95% CI: 0.558~0.650)。在测试集中,综合模型同样表现出较好的区分能力,AUC为0.797(95% CI:0.688~0.906),仍优于临床模型(AUC=0.713,95% CI:0.583~0.843)、实验室模型(AUC=0.534,95% CI:0.386~0.682)及影像学模型(AUC=0.644,95% CI:0.533~0.755)(图4)。(2)校准度评价:综合模型经Bootstrap法(1000次重复抽样)验证,绘制校准曲线,训练集与测试集均接近理想线(图5),Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验提示模型拟合度较高(χ2=5.025,P=0.713)。(3)临床适用性评价:DCA显示,在较宽阈值概率范围内,应用综合模型进行临床决策的净收益均高于“全干预”与“全不干预”策略,表明该模型具有良好的临床应用价值(图6)。
尘肺患者因肺部结构性破坏,成为真菌等条件致病菌感染的易感人群[11]。慢性炎症与纤维化微环境有利于真菌定植与侵袭,但受限于真菌感染症状不典型及现有诊断手段的局限性[12],当其叠加于细菌性肺炎时,常被归因于细菌感染控制不佳或病情迁延,导致漏诊、延迟诊断及预后恶化[13]。目前,对于经验性抗真菌治疗的时机尚存争议,Cornely等主张基于实验室指标的“抢先治疗”,而Ullmann等则建议依据影像学征象进行“经验性治疗”[14],这些争议凸显了开发综合风险评估工具的必要性。与Wang等重点关注职业风险及其预后评估的研究不同[15],本研究聚焦于细菌性肺炎后继发真菌感染这一环节,整合入院初期可获得的临床、检验与影像多维信息,构建可视化列线图模型,为临床早期识别高危患者与优化诊疗决策提供工具。
本研究显示,侵入性操作、全身性糖皮质激素使用、重复住院史及年龄是继发肺真菌感染的独立危险因素,这些因素从不同侧面反映了患者既往疾病负担重的整体状况。侵入性操作如支气管镜、机械通气等,虽有助于辅助诊断和改善病情,但也可能破坏气道黏膜屏障,改变局部微环境,为真菌定植创造条件[1]。全身糖皮质激素常用于减轻重症肺炎的过度炎症反应,其对免疫反应的抑制作用显著增加了曲霉等真菌感染的易感性。已有研究证实全身性糖皮质激素的免疫抑制作用可显著增加曲霉等继发真菌感染的易感性[16]。一项针对机械通气患者的研究也报道,地塞米松会增加细菌性肺炎和真菌感染的二重感染风险[17]。此外,重复住院史与高龄反映了患者较重的疾病负担和较差的生理储备。重复住院意味病情反复失代偿,通常伴随更高的疾病严重度与合并症负担[18],而高龄相关的免疫衰老及肺功能下降,使患者更难抵御继发性机会致病菌的感染侵袭[19]。这些因素共同构成了患者易感的整体状态。
本研究发现,未成熟粒细胞百分比升高是继发真菌感染的危险因素,提示机体面临高感染负荷时剧烈的炎症反应及骨髓造血的代偿性动员,与脓毒症早期诊断中的机制类似[20]。大血小板数在继发真菌感染者中偏低,可能与消耗增加或造血抑制相关,提示更重的疾病消耗状态;也有研究认为血小板不仅参与凝血,还参与宿主抗真菌免疫调节,并与抗真菌治疗有协同作用[21]。
本研究基于入院初期即可获得的常规临床资料,变量获取便捷、经济,具有良好的可重复性,可作为辅助工具指导临床医师识别高风险患者,从而有针对性地启动真菌学评估和干预。
本研究为单中心回顾性设计,检验策略与治疗路径可能存在机构特异性,外部泛化性仍需验证。继发真菌感染依据住院后痰/BALF培养阳性并结合病历记录核实,受临床决策影响可能存在检测/发现偏倚及误分风险。本研究结果应按预测关联谨慎解读,不能作因果推断。未来需多中心、前瞻性研究进一步验证模型校准度与临床净获益。
综上,本研究明确了侵入性操作、全身性糖皮质激素使用、重复住院史、年龄、未成熟粒细胞百分比及大血小板数是尘肺合并细菌性肺炎患者继发肺真菌感染的预测因素。基于上述因素构建的列线图模型具有良好的区分度与校准度,可为临床早期风险分层及优化抗真菌诊疗策略提供科学依据。
  • 国家自然科学基金项目(U22A20359; 82373548)
  • 四川省卫健委科技计划项目(24QNMP072)
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202510041
  • 接收时间:2025-10-09
  • 首发时间:2026-11-02
  • 出版时间:2026-03-25
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  • 收稿日期:2025-10-09
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国家自然科学基金项目(U22A20359; 82373548)
四川省卫健委科技计划项目(24QNMP072)
作者信息
    四川大学华西公共卫生学院(华西第四医院),华西职业性尘肺病队列工作组,成都 610041

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
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genus
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species
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Percentage of
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属
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种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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