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Article(id=1324077493480726742, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1324077443828560770, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202511099, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1762617600000, receivedDateStr=2025-11-09, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793614274616, onlineDateStr=2026-11-02, pubDate=1775750400000, pubDateStr=2026-04-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793614274616, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-11-02, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793614274616, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793614274616, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1324077443828560770, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2026', volume='53', issue='7', pageStart='1153', pageEnd='1344', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1775750400000', pubDateStr='2026-04-10', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=0, createTime=1793614262778, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793614352085, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1324077818509918661, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1324077443828560770, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1324077818509918662, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1324077443828560770, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=1202, endPage=1206, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1324077493682053335, articleId=1324077493480726742, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Incidence characteristics and trend prediction of bladder cancer in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2021, columnId=1240413921954295836, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Epidemiology and Statistical Methods, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

This study provides data support for the scientific prevention and control of bladder cancer in Gansu Province by analyzing the incidence status, trends, and predicting the incidence trend from 2022 to 2030 of bladder cancer in Gansu Province between 2010 and 2021.

Methods

By collecting regional tumor registration data from Gansu Province between 2010 and 2021, we included data meeting tumor data quality control requirements for analysis. Descriptive analyses were conducted by gender and urban-rural regions through calculation of incidence rates and related indicators. Trend analysis of bladder cancer incidence data in Gansu Province over the past 12 years was conducted using Joinpoint. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model analysis method was applied to predict the mortality trend of bladder cancer patients in Gansu Province from 2022 to 2030.

Results

From 2010 to 2021, there were 3 245 new cases of bladder cancer in Gansu Province, with incidence rates, Chinese age-standardized incidence rate, and world-standard incidence rates being 4.88/105, 3.38/105, and 3.31/105, respectively. The overall trend showed higher incidence rates in males than females, higher urban rates than rural areas, with statistically significant differences (all P values <0.05). Incidence rates increased with age, reaching a peak in the 80+ age group (81.96/105). The cumulative rates for 0-64 years and 0-74 years were 0.17% and 0.39%, respectively, while the truncated rate for 35-64 years was 4.71/105. From 2010 to 2021, the incidence of bladder cancer in Gansu Province increased by an average of 4.7% annually, with statistically significant trends (all P values <0.05). The annual percent change (APC=5.0%) was higher in males than females (APC=4.6%). Predictions indicate that the standardized incidence of bladder cancer in Gansu will rise from 2.96/105 in 2021 to 3.50/105 by 2030, with both gender-specific and urban-rural standardized incidence predictions showing upward trends.

Conclusion

From 2010 to 2021, the incidence of bladder cancer in Gansu Province showed an upward trend, and it is predicted that the incidence of bladder cancer will continue to increase from 2022 to 2030. Therefore, more attention should be paid to the impact of bladder cancer on population health, medical and health investment should be increased, and prevention and treatment efforts for elderly men with a high incidence of bladder cancer should be strengthened

, authors=Cheng-yan BU1, Zhao-xia LU2, Gao-heng DING3, Yu-qin LIU3, authorsList=Cheng-yan BU, Zhao-xia LU, Gao-heng DING, Yu-qin LIU, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Zhao-xia LU, Yu-qin LIU, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1324077496081195230, articleId=1324077493480726742, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=CN, title=2010—2021年甘肃省膀胱癌发病特征及趋势预测, columnId=1228016567632462653, journalTitle=现代预防医学, columnName=流行病与统计方法, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的

通过分析2010—2021年甘肃省膀胱癌发病流行现状与变化趋势，并对2022—2030年发病趋势进行预测，为甘肃省膀胱癌科学防控提供数据支撑。

方法

收集2010—2021年甘肃省肿瘤登记地区数据，将符合质控要求的数据纳入分析；计算发病率等相关指标，分性别、城乡进行描述性分析；利用Joinpoint对甘肃省近12年膀胱癌发病数据进行趋势分析，运用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型对2022—2030年甘肃省膀胱癌发病趋势进行预测。

结果

2010—2021年甘肃省新发膀胱癌病例3 245例，发病率、中标发病率、世标发病率分别为4.88/10万、3.38/10万、3.31/10万，总体呈现男性高于女性、城市高于农村，差异均有统计学意义（P均<0.05）；发病率随着年龄的增长呈上升趋势，总体在80~岁组达到发病高峰（81.96/10万）；0~64岁和0~74岁累积发病率分别为0.17%、0.39%，35~64岁截缩率为4.71/10万。2010 —2021年甘肃省膀胱癌发病率平均每年增加4.7%，且变化趋势有统计学意义（均P<0.05），其中男性人群年度变化百分比（annual percentage change，APC）为5.0%，高于女性的4.6%。预测甘肃省膀胱癌标化发病由2021年的2.96/10万上升至2030年的3.50/10万，且分性别、城乡预测标化发病率均呈上升趋势。

结论

2010—2021年甘肃省膀胱癌发病率呈上升趋势，且预测2022—2030年膀胱癌发病率也将不断增加，因此，应更加关注膀胱癌对人群健康的影响，加大医疗卫生投入，重点加强对发病率较高的老年男性人群开展防治工作。

, authors=卜成艳1, 鲁朝霞2, 丁高恒3, 刘玉琴3, authorsList=卜成艳, 鲁朝霞, 丁高恒, 刘玉琴, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=鲁朝霞, 刘玉琴, authorNote=

卜成艳（1985—），女，本科，主管护师，研究方向：慢性非传染性疾病预防控制工作

, correspAuthorsNote=
刘玉琴，E-mail：
鲁朝霞，E-mail：；刘玉琴与鲁朝霞为共同通信作者
, copyrightStatement=本刊刊出的所有文章不代表中华预防医学会和本刊编委会的观点，除非特别声明。, copyrightOwner=中华预防医学会和四川大学华西公共卫生学院, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=Wb1ulTgxxZCgMT/cSS9gcA==, magXml=DU8wFvJi4n1p+Zlwe1ul+w==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=MYivxvJaqEmElXInstAt3A==, pdfFileSize=1021870, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=4nhHSOUOWABb+g5f8xtEWw==, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=T5tEHWNoX6Xn6+gUARK2SA==, mapNumber=null, fund=null)}, authors=[Author(id=1324077496689369319, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077493480726742, orderNo=0, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1324077496991359209, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077493480726742, authorId=1324077496689369319, language=EN, stringName=Cheng-yan BU, firstName=Cheng-yan, middleName=null, lastName=BU, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, address=Baiyin District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baiyin, Gansu 730900, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1324077497125576938, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077493480726742, authorId=1324077496689369319, language=CN, stringName=卜成艳, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=1, address=1.白银区疾病预防控制中心，甘肃　白银　730900, bio={"content":"

卜成艳（1985—），女，本科，主管护师，研究方向：慢性非传染性疾病预防控制工作

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Basic information on the incidence of bladder cancer in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2021

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地区性别发病例数[n（%）]发病率（1/10万）ASIRC（1/10万）ASIRW（1/10万）0~64岁累积发病率（%）0~74岁累积发病率（%）35~64岁截缩率（1/10万）
合计合计3 245（100.00）4.883.383.310.170.394.71
男性2 556（78.77）7.525.325.210.260.617.38
女性689（21.23）2.121.451.420.070.182.01
城市合计1 861（57.35）5.353.383.320.170.404.65
男性1 432（76.95）8.075.225.130.260.617.16
女性429（23.05）2.511.551.530.080.192.14
农村合计1 384（42.65）4.373.673.620.190.415.25
男性1 124（81.21）6.916.146.030.310.678.70
女性260（18.79）1.691.261.270.060.151.75
), ArticleFig(id=1324077501466681610, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077493480726742, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

2010—2021年甘肃省膀胱癌发病基本情况

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
地区性别发病例数[n（%）]发病率（1/10万）ASIRC（1/10万）ASIRW（1/10万）0~64岁累积发病率（%）0~74岁累积发病率（%）35~64岁截缩率（1/10万）
合计合计3 245（100.00）4.883.383.310.170.394.71
男性2 556（78.77）7.525.325.210.260.617.38
女性689（21.23）2.121.451.420.070.182.01
城市合计1 861（57.35）5.353.383.320.170.404.65
男性1 432（76.95）8.075.225.130.260.617.16
女性429（23.05）2.511.551.530.080.192.14
农村合计1 384（42.65）4.373.673.620.190.415.25
男性1 124（81.21）6.916.146.030.310.678.70
女性260（18.79）1.691.261.270.060.151.75
), ArticleFig(id=1324077501554761995, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077493480726742, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Trend of changes in bladder cancer incidence in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2021 (/105)

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份（年）男性女性城市农村合计
CRASIRCASIRWCRASIRCASIRWCRASIRCASIRWCRASIRCASIRWCRASIRCASIRW
20104.604.674.621.441.161.203.423.103.162.142.322.153.102.922.92
20115.454.694.481.110.910.953.242.662.633.633.443.173.342.852.76
20125.505.275.022.011.771.753.523.102.964.645.195.113.813.533.39
20135.444.594.412.391.941.873.803.123.024.453.883.683.963.273.15
20147.116.476.321.681.491.394.533.743.494.254.825.124.463.963.83
20156.485.515.451.471.071.084.373.403.453.082.862.634.053.263.24
20166.345.485.311.751.381.304.133.383.274.003.683.504.103.423.29
20177.686.376.452.812.192.235.544.224.234.574.574.885.304.254.32
20186.344.874.861.931.401.344.182.952.874.193.874.074.193.123.08
20198.205.455.312.371.491.445.383.303.235.273.743.595.343.443.35
20209.495.895.882.351.321.317.634.284.314.592.942.895.993.593.58
20217.314.574.452.121.261.215.783.263.204.232.682.594.782.912.83
AAPC（%）5.0*0.81.04.6*1.00.56.3*1.91.93.8-0.7-0.24.7*0.70.8
95%CI（%）2.8~7.1-1.5~3.2-1.5~3.60.4~8.9-3.7~6.0-4.0~5.33.8~8.9-0.5~4.3-0.5~4.3-0.1~7.9-5.3~4.1-5.6~5.52.7~6.8-1.7~3.0-17~3.3
t值5.2430.8260.9152.4530.5180.3265.6541.8241.7752.256-0.375-0.1785.3540.6780.745
P值<0.050.4730.381<0.050.6690.803<0.050.1170.1230.0640.7500.935<0.050.5570.501
), ArticleFig(id=1324077501668008204, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324077493480726742, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

2010—2021年甘肃省膀胱癌发病率变化趋势（1/10万）

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份（年）男性女性城市农村合计
CRASIRCASIRWCRASIRCASIRWCRASIRCASIRWCRASIRCASIRWCRASIRCASIRW
20104.604.674.621.441.161.203.423.103.162.142.322.153.102.922.92
20115.454.694.481.110.910.953.242.662.633.633.443.173.342.852.76
20125.505.275.022.011.771.753.523.102.964.645.195.113.813.533.39
20135.444.594.412.391.941.873.803.123.024.453.883.683.963.273.15
20147.116.476.321.681.491.394.533.743.494.254.825.124.463.963.83
20156.485.515.451.471.071.084.373.403.453.082.862.634.053.263.24
20166.345.485.311.751.381.304.133.383.274.003.683.504.103.423.29
20177.686.376.452.812.192.235.544.224.234.574.574.885.304.254.32
20186.344.874.861.931.401.344.182.952.874.193.874.074.193.123.08
20198.205.455.312.371.491.445.383.303.235.273.743.595.343.443.35
20209.495.895.882.351.321.317.634.284.314.592.942.895.993.593.58
20217.314.574.452.121.261.215.783.263.204.232.682.594.782.912.83
AAPC（%）5.0*0.81.04.6*1.00.56.3*1.91.93.8-0.7-0.24.7*0.70.8
95%CI（%）2.8~7.1-1.5~3.2-1.5~3.60.4~8.9-3.7~6.0-4.0~5.33.8~8.9-0.5~4.3-0.5~4.3-0.1~7.9-5.3~4.1-5.6~5.52.7~6.8-1.7~3.0-17~3.3
t值5.2430.8260.9152.4530.5180.3265.6541.8241.7752.256-0.375-0.1785.3540.6780.745
P值<0.050.4730.381<0.050.6690.803<0.050.1170.1230.0640.7500.935<0.050.5570.501
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2010—2021年甘肃省膀胱癌发病特征及趋势预测
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卜成艳 1 , 鲁朝霞 2 , 丁高恒 3 , 刘玉琴 3
现代预防医学 | 流行病与统计方法 2026,53(7): 1202-1206
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现代预防医学 |流行病与统计方法 2026 , 53 (7) : 1202 -1206
2010—2021年甘肃省膀胱癌发病特征及趋势预测
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卜成艳1, 鲁朝霞2 , 丁高恒3, 刘玉琴3
作者信息
  • 1.白银区疾病预防控制中心，甘肃　白银　730900
  • 2.白银市疾病预防控制中心，甘肃　白银　730900
  • 3.甘肃省肿瘤医院，甘肃　兰州　730050
通讯作者:
刘玉琴，E-mail：
鲁朝霞，E-mail：；刘玉琴与鲁朝霞为共同通信作者
作者简介:

卜成艳（1985—），女，本科，主管护师，研究方向：慢性非传染性疾病预防控制工作

Incidence characteristics and trend prediction of bladder cancer in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2021
Cheng-yan BU1, Zhao-xia LU2 , Gao-heng DING3, Yu-qin LIU3
Affiliations
  • Baiyin District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Baiyin, Gansu 730900, China
出版时间: 2026-04-10 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202511099
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摘要
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目的

通过分析2010—2021年甘肃省膀胱癌发病流行现状与变化趋势，并对2022—2030年发病趋势进行预测，为甘肃省膀胱癌科学防控提供数据支撑。

方法

收集2010—2021年甘肃省肿瘤登记地区数据，将符合质控要求的数据纳入分析；计算发病率等相关指标，分性别、城乡进行描述性分析；利用Joinpoint对甘肃省近12年膀胱癌发病数据进行趋势分析，运用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型对2022—2030年甘肃省膀胱癌发病趋势进行预测。

结果

2010—2021年甘肃省新发膀胱癌病例3 245例，发病率、中标发病率、世标发病率分别为4.88/10万、3.38/10万、3.31/10万，总体呈现男性高于女性、城市高于农村，差异均有统计学意义（P均<0.05）；发病率随着年龄的增长呈上升趋势，总体在80~岁组达到发病高峰（81.96/10万）；0~64岁和0~74岁累积发病率分别为0.17%、0.39%，35~64岁截缩率为4.71/10万。2010 —2021年甘肃省膀胱癌发病率平均每年增加4.7%，且变化趋势有统计学意义（均P<0.05），其中男性人群年度变化百分比（annual percentage change，APC）为5.0%，高于女性的4.6%。预测甘肃省膀胱癌标化发病由2021年的2.96/10万上升至2030年的3.50/10万，且分性别、城乡预测标化发病率均呈上升趋势。

结论

2010—2021年甘肃省膀胱癌发病率呈上升趋势，且预测2022—2030年膀胱癌发病率也将不断增加，因此，应更加关注膀胱癌对人群健康的影响，加大医疗卫生投入，重点加强对发病率较高的老年男性人群开展防治工作。

甘肃省  /  膀胱癌  /  发病预测  /  变化趋势
Objective

This study provides data support for the scientific prevention and control of bladder cancer in Gansu Province by analyzing the incidence status, trends, and predicting the incidence trend from 2022 to 2030 of bladder cancer in Gansu Province between 2010 and 2021.

Methods

By collecting regional tumor registration data from Gansu Province between 2010 and 2021, we included data meeting tumor data quality control requirements for analysis. Descriptive analyses were conducted by gender and urban-rural regions through calculation of incidence rates and related indicators. Trend analysis of bladder cancer incidence data in Gansu Province over the past 12 years was conducted using Joinpoint. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model analysis method was applied to predict the mortality trend of bladder cancer patients in Gansu Province from 2022 to 2030.

Results

From 2010 to 2021, there were 3 245 new cases of bladder cancer in Gansu Province, with incidence rates, Chinese age-standardized incidence rate, and world-standard incidence rates being 4.88/105, 3.38/105, and 3.31/105, respectively. The overall trend showed higher incidence rates in males than females, higher urban rates than rural areas, with statistically significant differences (all P values <0.05). Incidence rates increased with age, reaching a peak in the 80+ age group (81.96/105). The cumulative rates for 0-64 years and 0-74 years were 0.17% and 0.39%, respectively, while the truncated rate for 35-64 years was 4.71/105. From 2010 to 2021, the incidence of bladder cancer in Gansu Province increased by an average of 4.7% annually, with statistically significant trends (all P values <0.05). The annual percent change (APC=5.0%) was higher in males than females (APC=4.6%). Predictions indicate that the standardized incidence of bladder cancer in Gansu will rise from 2.96/105 in 2021 to 3.50/105 by 2030, with both gender-specific and urban-rural standardized incidence predictions showing upward trends.

Conclusion

From 2010 to 2021, the incidence of bladder cancer in Gansu Province showed an upward trend, and it is predicted that the incidence of bladder cancer will continue to increase from 2022 to 2030. Therefore, more attention should be paid to the impact of bladder cancer on population health, medical and health investment should be increased, and prevention and treatment efforts for elderly men with a high incidence of bladder cancer should be strengthened

Gansu Province  /  Bladder cancer  /  Incidence prediction  /  Trend change
卜成艳, 鲁朝霞, 丁高恒, 刘玉琴. 2010—2021年甘肃省膀胱癌发病特征及趋势预测. 现代预防医学, 2026 , 53 (7) : 1202 -1206 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202511099
Cheng-yan BU, Zhao-xia LU, Gao-heng DING, Yu-qin LIU. Incidence characteristics and trend prediction of bladder cancer in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2021[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2026 , 53 (7) : 1202 -1206 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202511099
正文
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膀胱癌是泌尿系统最常见的恶性肿瘤[1]，也是全球常见十大癌症之一[2]。近30年来中国膀胱癌发病率呈持续上升趋势，其标化发病率以年均1.5%的速度在增加[3]。膀胱位置相对隐匿，常规体检一般不会涉及膀胱检查，因此，很多病例无法通过早期发现进行治疗[4]，且膀胱癌又具有易复发、预后差等特点，给人类健康造成了严重危害，同时也给社会带来了较重的经济负担[5-6]。本研究旨在对2010—2021年甘肃省膀胱癌发病流行现状及变化趋势进行分析，并对2022—2030年发病趋势进行预测，为甘肃省科学防控膀胱癌提供数据支撑。
1　资料与方法
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1.1　数据来源
2010—2021年甘肃省膀胱癌发病数据来源于中国肿瘤登记平台，涵盖全省15个肿瘤登记处、86个肿瘤登记点。依据第10版《国际疾病分类标准》，将编码为C67的所有新发病例纳入分析，人口数据来源于公安和统计部门。
1.2　数据质量
数据质量评价采用国际通用统一标准，从数据的完整性、可靠性、有效性三个方面进行评估。2010—2021年甘肃省3 245例膀胱癌患者中病理组织学诊断比例为58.92%，其中城市地区为60.51%，农村地区为56.79%；仅有死亡医学证明书比例为0.83%，城市地区为0.81%，农村地区为0.87%；原发部位诊断不明比例为0.71%，其中城市地区为0.70%，农村地区为0.72%；死亡发病比为0.36，城市地区为0.37，农村地区为0.35；上述评价指标均符合肿瘤登记数据标准。
1.3　统计学处理
利用SPSS 27.0和SAS 9.3软件对甘肃膀胱癌发病数据进行统计分析，分性别、城乡、年龄分层计算发病率相关指标，包括粗发病率，以及用2000年全国普查人口构成和Segi世界标准人口构成进行标化调整后的中国人口标化发病率（age-standardized incidence rate by Chinese standard population，ASIRC）、世界人口标化发病率（age-standardized incidence rate by world standard population，ASIRW）；同时分别计算重点人群分别计算0~64岁、0~74岁累积发病率及35~64岁截缩率；采用JoinPoint 5.4软件计算平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）及95%的置信区间对甘肃省2010—2021年膀胱癌发病相关指标的变化趋势进行分析，描述其变化趋势，检验水准α=0.05。采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（Bayesian age-period-cohort，BAPC）模型对2010—2121年甘肃省膀胱癌发病趋势进行预测；BAPC模型从年龄、时期、队列效应三个维度进行综合考量，并通过集成嵌套拉普拉斯近似（integrated nested Laplace approximation，INLA）算法进行趋势预测。
2　结果
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2.1　甘肃省膀胱癌发病基本情况
2010—2021年甘肃省共报告膀胱癌新发病例3 245例，占同期全部新发恶性肿瘤的1.60%。总体粗发病率为4.88/10万，ASIRC为3.38/10万，ASIRW为3.31/10万。0~64岁累积发病率为0.17%，0~74岁累积发病率为0.39%，35~64岁截缩率为4.71/10万。见表1。
2.2　甘肃省膀胱癌发病率时间变化趋势
2010—2021年膀胱癌总体粗发病率呈上升趋势（AAPC=4.7%，P<0.05），由2010年的3.10/10万增加到2021年的4.78/10万，增加了56.4%；ASIRC和ASIRW无明显变化（AAPC分别为0.07%、0.08%，均P>0.05）。见表2。
2.3　膀胱癌发病人群分布特征
2.3.1　性别分布
2010—2021年甘肃省新发膀胱癌病例中，男性2 556例，女性689例，性别比为3.71∶1。男性粗发病率为7.52/10万，女性为2.12/10万，男性高于女性，差异有统计学意义（χ2=987.652，P<0.001）。男性0~64岁累积发病率、0~74岁累积率及35~64岁截缩率，分别为0.26%、0.61%、7.38/10万，均高于女性的0.07%、0.18%、2.01/10万；各年份男性ASIRC均高于女性。2010—2021年男性、女性粗发病率均呈上升趋势（男性AAPC=5.0%，P<0.05；女性AAPC=4.6%，P<0.05）。见图1，表1、2。
2.3.2　年龄分布
2010—2021年甘肃省膀胱癌发病率随着年龄增长呈上升趋势，80~84岁组达到发病高峰（81.96/10万），城市、农村及男性人群发病高峰均出现在80~84岁组，分别为：44.49/10万、37.47/10万、69.92/10万，而女性发病高峰相对提前，在75~79岁组达发病高峰，为15.33/10万。各年龄组均呈现出男性高于女性、城市高于农村。见图2。
2.4　膀胱癌发病人群城乡分布
2010—2021年甘肃省新发膀胱癌病例中，城市地区1 861例（占57.35%），农村地区1 384例（占42.65%），粗发病率城市为5.35/10万、农村为4.37/10万，城市高于农村，差异有统计学意义（χ2=49.274，P<0.001）。除2010、2015、2020及2021年农村发病率高于城市外，其余年份均为城市高于农村。2010—2021年甘肃省城市地区膀胱癌发病率呈上升趋势，农村地区发病率无明显变化趋势（城市地区AAPC=6.3%，P<0.05；农村地区AAPC=3.8%，P=0.06）。见图1、表2。
2.5　BAPC模型预测
基于2010—2021年甘肃省膀胱癌标化发病率数据，对2022—2030年甘肃省膀胱癌标化发病率进行预测。预测结果显示，2022—2030年甘肃省膀胱癌标化发病率总体将呈上升趋势，标化发病率由2021年的2.96/10万上升至2030年的3.50/10万，较2021年增长18.02%；分性别预测结果显示，男性、女性标化发病率均呈上升趋势，分别由2021年的4.64/10万、1.28/10万上升至2030年的6.53/10万、3.86/10万，较2021年分别增加了40.53%、202.93%，女性上升幅度明显高于男性，为男性的5.01倍；分城乡预测结果显示，城市地区膀胱癌标化发病率基本保持不变，2030年较2021年仅增加0.35%，但农村地区标化发病率呈上升趋势，由2021年的1.37/10万上升至2030年的3.28/10万，较2021年上升了139.31%。见图3。
3　讨论
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对完整、准确、可靠的癌症数据进行分析是区域科学制定癌症防控策略的基础[7]。2010—2021年甘肃省膀胱癌中标发病率为3.38/10万，低于2003—2017年北京市（5.29/10万）[8]，与2022年全国（3.40/10万）[9]、2018年山东省（3.67/10万）[10]、2019年甘肃省（3.44/10万）[11]水平接近，但高于1972—2021启东市（1.80/10万）[12]、2015年江苏省（3.22/10万）[13]。2010—2021年甘肃省膀胱癌总体粗发病率呈上升趋势，年均增幅达4.7%，与全国膀胱癌发病率整体上升的态势相符[3]，但中标发病率与世标发病率均无明显变化趋势，提示当前粗发病率的增长在很大程度上可能归因于人口老龄化进程的加速[14]。基于此趋势，BAPC模型预测至2030年，甘肃省膀胱癌标化发病率仍将继续上升，疾病负担进一步加重。这一预测结果警示我们，在人口结构老龄化的宏观背景下，膀胱癌的防控将成为甘肃省一项长期而紧迫的公共卫生任务。
本研究发现膀胱癌发病存在显著的性别与年龄差异。男性粗发病率、中标发病率、世标发病率均明显高于女性，与相关研究结果一致[8-13,15]。造成男女性发病率差异明显的主要原因可能与膀胱癌发病相关危险因素暴露水平、接触或者暴露频次等相关，如吸烟、芳香胺类有害物以及低维生素和膳食纤维的饮食习惯等[13]。约有50%的膀胱癌的发生是由烟草引起，且存在明显的剂量反应关系[14]，相关研究结果显示甘肃省18岁以上人群男性吸烟率为68.50%，是女性（1.5%）的45.67倍[16]，这可能是引起甘肃省膀胱癌男性、女性发病率差异最主要的原因之一，除此之外，因职业因素，男性较女性更易因接触或暴露于芳香胺类等与膀胱癌发生有关的有害物，也是男性膀胱癌较女性高发的原因之一[17]。分年龄组分析结果显示膀胱癌随着年龄的增长呈上升趋势，与相关研究结果一致[8,10-14]，在80岁组达到发病峰值，这进一步印证了年龄是膀胱癌发病的重要危险因素。
在城乡分布上，2010—2021年城市地区粗发病率整体高于农村，但趋势分析显示城市发病率年均增速（6.3%）显著，而农村地区并无显著变化趋势。预测模型进一步揭示，未来农村地区标化发病率的上升潜力（增长139.31%）可能远大于城市地区（基本持平）。这种动态变化可能反映了多重因素的共同作用：初期城市发病率较高，可能与城市居民健康意识较强、诊疗可及性好、病例发现率较高有关；而农村地区未来发病风险的潜在快速提升，则可能源于其相对薄弱的基层癌症防治体系、逐渐变化的生活方式（如吸烟习惯的普及）以及加速的人口老龄化。这警示我们，膀胱癌的防控重心需具备前瞻性，在持续巩固城市地区防治成果的同时，必须高度重视并提前布局农村地区的防控能力建设。
综上所述，膀胱癌是甘肃省常见恶性肿瘤之一，且发病将不断增加，因此，甘肃省应不断增加膀胱癌的关注度，针对高发的重点人群积极采取膀胱癌防控三级预防策略，针对有吸烟、芳香胺类有害物接触情况以及低维生素和膳食纤维的饮食习惯的人群，重点针对危险因素进行干预，以减少或避免烟草、芳香胺类等有害物质接触，改变不良饮食习惯为主；针对膀胱癌的高危人群，则应定期开展膀胱癌筛查，如尿常规、膀胱镜检查等，以实现疾病的早期发现、早期诊断和早期治疗，从而降低癌症进展风险和死亡率；针对已经确诊的膀胱癌患者，通过积极接受规范治疗和康复管理降低并发症、提高生活质量。
本研究对甘肃省2010—2021年膀胱癌发病数据进行分析，评估了12年间甘肃省膀胱癌的发病趋势，并对2022—2030年膀胱癌标化发病率进行了预测，为膀胱癌防控卫生政策制定以及有效地降低膀胱癌发病提供数据支持。
基金
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  • 白银市2025年第一批科技计划项目(2025-1-88S)
文献
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2026年第53卷第7期
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202511099
  • 接收时间：2025-11-09
  • 首发时间：2026-11-02
  • 出版时间：2026-04-10
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  • 收稿日期：2025-11-09
基金
白银市2025年第一批科技计划项目(2025-1-88S)
作者信息
    1.白银区疾病预防控制中心，甘肃　白银　730900
    2.白银市疾病预防控制中心，甘肃　白银　730900
    3.甘肃省肿瘤医院，甘肃　兰州　730050

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鲁朝霞，E-mail：；刘玉琴与鲁朝霞为共同通信作者
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
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