Article(id=1324051187787497670, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1324050876230415089, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202601448, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1769529600000, receivedDateStr=2026-01-28, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793608002849, onlineDateStr=2026-11-02, pubDate=1781020800000, pubDateStr=2026-06-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793608002849, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-11-02, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793608002849, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793608002849, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1324050876230415089, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2026', volume='53', issue='11', pageStart='1921', pageEnd='2112', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1781020800000', pubDateStr='2026-06-10', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1793607928569, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793670049253, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1324311429322507008, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1324050876230415089, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1324311429322507009, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1324050876230415089, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=1962, endPage=1968, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1324051188034961607, articleId=1324051187787497670, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Temporal variation in short-term ozone exposure-related circulatory and respiratory mortality risks in the Sichuan Basin, 2014—2022, columnId=1228016570660745413, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Environmental and Occupational Health, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective To evaluate the temporal variations in short-term mortality risks associated with ozone (O3) exposure for circulatory and respiratory diseases in the Sichuan Basin under the Clean Air Action, and to provide evidence for regional air pollution control and public health interventions.
Methods Mortality data for circulatory and respiratory diseases were obtained from Sichuan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and air pollution data (O3, NO2, and PM2.5) were obtained from the China High Air Pollutants dataset. A two-stage analysis was applied to estimate the short-term risks of circulatory, respiratory, and combined circulatory-respiratory mortality associated with O3 exposure during 2014—2022. In the first stage, quasi-Poisson generalized linear models were used to estimate the county-specific associations between O3 and mortality. In the second stage, random-effects meta-analysis was used to pool the estimates. Longitudinal meta-regression with a nonlinear time term was further used to assess temporal variations in risk. Two-pollutant models and subgroup analyses were conducted to examine the effects of co-pollutants and population heterogeneity on these temporal variations.
Results Short-term mortality risks associated with O3 exhibited significant nonlinear temporal variations across all three mortality outcomes (P<0.001), with an increase during 2014—2016, a decline during 2017—2019, and a subsequent rise after 2020. For combined circulatory-respiratory mortality, the excess risk (ER) associated with each 10 μg/m3 increase in O3 rose from 0.86% (95% CI: 0.52%-1.20%) in 2014 to 1.51% (1.30%-1.72%) in 2016, then decreased to 0.93% (0.75%-1.11%) in 2019, and increased again to 1.58% (1.37%-1.79%) in 2022. This trend remained significant (P<0.01) in two-pollutant models, although the effects during 2016—2018 were attenuated, particularly for respiratory mortality. Subgroup analyses by sex and age showed similar temporal patterns, with overall higher risks in females and individuals aged ≥65 years.
Conclusion From 2014 to 2022, short-term mortality risks associated with O3 in the Sichuan Basin showed a pattern of increase, decline, and re-increase. The post-2020 rebound suggests that future air quality management should strengthen coordinated control of PM2.5, NO2, and O3, and implement more targeted public health interventions in the context of population aging and climate change.
, authors=Yue OU
1, Jian QIAN
1, Sheng LI
1, Jia-yi CHEN
1, Jun-yu WANG
1, Jing ZENG
2, Xin-yin XU
2, Ying DENG
2, Fei YIN
1, Meng-lu JIANG
1, authorsList=Yue OU, Jian QIAN, Sheng LI, Jia-yi CHEN, Jun-yu WANG, Jing ZENG, Xin-yin XU, Ying DENG, Fei YIN, Meng-lu JIANG, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Fei YIN, Meng-lu JIANG, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1324051192145379546, articleId=1324051187787497670, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=CN, title=2014—2022年四川盆地短期臭氧暴露相关循环与呼吸系统死亡风险的时间变化特征, columnId=1228016571273113811, journalTitle=现代预防医学, columnName=环境与职业卫生, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的 评估清洁空气行动背景下四川盆地O3短期暴露相关循环和呼吸系统死亡风险的时间变化特征,为区域空气污染防治与公共卫生干预提供依据。
方法 循环与呼吸系统死亡数据来源于四川省疾病预防控制中心,空气污染物数据(O3、NO2和PM2.5)来源于中国高分辨率空气污染物数据集。采用两阶段分析评估2014—2022年O3暴露相关的循环系统、呼吸系统以及两者总死亡的短期风险:第一阶段采用准泊松广义线性模型估计各区县O3与死亡的短期关联;第二阶段采用随机效应meta分析汇总区县效应。在此框架下,通过纳入非线性时间项的纵向meta回归评估风险的时间变化。同时利用双污染物模型和亚组分析探讨共污染物及人群差异对该时间趋势的影响。
结果 三类死亡结局的O3短期死亡风险均呈显著非线性时间变化(P<0.001),总体表现为2014—2016年上升、2017—2019年下降、2020年后再次升高。以循环和呼吸系统总死亡为例,O3每增加10 μg/m3对应的超额风险从2014年的0.86%(95%CI:0.52%~1.20%)升至2016年的1.51%(95%CI:1.30%~1.72%),随后降至2019年的0.93%(95%CI:0.75%~1.11%),并于2022年再次升至1.58%(95%CI:1.37%~1.79%)。双污染物模型中此时间趋势仍然显著(P<0.01),但2016—2018年的超额风险有所减弱,且在呼吸系统死亡中更为明显。不同性别和年龄亚组中风险呈相似时间模式,女性和≥65岁人群的风险整体更高。
结论 2014—2022年四川盆地O3相关短期死亡风险呈现先升后降再上升的时间趋势。2020年后的风险反弹提示未来应加强PM2.5、NO2与O3的协同控制,并在老龄化与气候变化背景下实施更有针对性的公共卫生干预。
, authors=欧悦
1, 钱渐
1, 李胜
1, 陈嘉怡
1, 王俊予
1, 曾晶
2, 胥馨尹
2, 邓颖
2, 殷菲
1, 江梦璐
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欧悦(2000—),女,硕士在读,研究方向:卫生统计方法与应用
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殷菲与江梦璐为共同通信作者
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本刊刊出的所有文章不代表中华预防医学会和本刊编委会的观点,除非特别声明。, copyrightOwner=中华预防医学会和四川大学华西公共卫生学院, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=lLVKkIg6HTm17INdq+BDig==, magXml=YxZHkYffo4FS+nbm8HtYog==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=iTfV13hMPO0iqzh1RQkgSA==, pdfFileSize=2212169, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=75Jc/pBRuVCKDw2MZhOn7A==, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=qszYzfQXGe/3DnGj5n9qhQ==, mapNumber=null, fund=null)}, authors=[Author(id=1324051192535449825, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324051187787497670, orderNo=0, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1324051192636113123, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324051187787497670, authorId=1324051192535449825, language=EN, stringName=Yue OU, firstName=Yue, middleName=null, lastName=OU, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=
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Temporal trends of air pollutants, meteorological factors, mortality, and the population aging rate in the Sichuan Basin, 2014—2022, figureFileSmall=fY0mnKuPLdkafOU/dab/mg==, figureFileBig=75Jc/pBRuVCKDw2MZhOn7A==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1324051197673472283, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324051187787497670, language=CN, label=图1, caption=
2014—2022年四川盆地空气污染物、气象因素、死亡及老龄化率的时间趋势注:A为空气污染物的时间趋势;B为各类死亡的时间趋势;C和D为气象因素的时间趋势;E为老龄化率(65岁以上人口所占比例)的时间趋势。
, figureFileSmall=fY0mnKuPLdkafOU/dab/mg==, figureFileBig=75Jc/pBRuVCKDw2MZhOn7A==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1324051197916741916, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324051187787497670, language=EN, label=Figure 2, caption=
Temporal evolution of the short-term mortality risk associated with O3 in the Sichuan Basin from 2014 to 2022, figureFileSmall=55xIlgLHerRviF80ZBl6Uw==, figureFileBig=UB4aGmA4OYRGvZ6SoojMSg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1324051197983850781, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324051187787497670, language=CN, label=图2, caption=
2014—2022年四川盆地汇总的O3的短期死亡风险随时间的变化特征注:A为2014—2022年各年度O3的短期死亡风险的时间趋势;B为按短期风险趋势分段估计的三个时段的短期死亡风险。
, figureFileSmall=55xIlgLHerRviF80ZBl6Uw==, figureFileBig=UB4aGmA4OYRGvZ6SoojMSg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1324051198067736862, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324051187787497670, language=EN, label=Figure 3, caption=
Annual trends in short-term O3 mortality risk under different outcomes and models in the Sichuan Basin from 2014 to 2022, figureFileSmall=uMEW06uugLwS+0Ql4YVfzA==, figureFileBig=Jp1NYQsOZpUWK+9LMt+u9g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1324051198139040031, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324051187787497670, language=CN, label=图3, caption=
2014—2022年四川盆地不同结局和模型下O3短期死亡风险的年度趋势, figureFileSmall=uMEW06uugLwS+0Ql4YVfzA==, figureFileBig=Jp1NYQsOZpUWK+9LMt+u9g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1324051198206148896, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324051187787497670, language=EN, label=Figure 4, caption=
Temporal trends in short-term mortality risks associated with O3 by sex group, 2014 to 2022, figureFileSmall=UMbwqlR0lG3/is6gHFMEtw==, figureFileBig=azVDlN/tijQH+BvY5ezT8w==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1324051198311006497, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324051187787497670, language=CN, label=图4, caption=
2014—2022年不同性别亚组O3的短期死亡风险的时间趋势, figureFileSmall=UMbwqlR0lG3/is6gHFMEtw==, figureFileBig=azVDlN/tijQH+BvY5ezT8w==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1324051198378115362, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324051187787497670, language=EN, label=Figure 5, caption=
Temporal trends in short-term mortality risks associated with O3 by age group, 2014 to 2022, figureFileSmall=glnUDkz+7DFDnETxFjheKg==, figureFileBig=WfTyWEwStEaYaJBPZIRDFA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1324051198474584355, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324051187787497670, language=CN, label=图5, caption=
2014—2022年不同年龄亚组O3的短期死亡风险的时间趋势, figureFileSmall=glnUDkz+7DFDnETxFjheKg==, figureFileBig=WfTyWEwStEaYaJBPZIRDFA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1324051198550081828, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324051187787497670, language=EN, label=Figure 6, caption=
Spatial distribution of county-level short-term mortality risks associated with O3 exposure in the Sichuan Basin, 2014—2022, figureFileSmall=95Zxr8iQy7jJj9aLaiyRhA==, figureFileBig=DNWcNn/drqHBKhPUVjIVIA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1324051198617190693, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324051187787497670, language=CN, label=图6, caption=
2014—2022年四川盆地县级O3暴露相关短期死亡风险的空间分布注:图中ER表示2014—2022年四川盆地122个纳入主要分析区县的县级平均效应;审图号为GS(2024)0650号。
, figureFileSmall=95Zxr8iQy7jJj9aLaiyRhA==, figureFileBig=DNWcNn/drqHBKhPUVjIVIA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1324051198692688166, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324051187787497670, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=
Results of Spearman correlation analysis between meteorological variables and air pollutants
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
| 变量 | PM2.5 | O3 | NO2 | 气温 | 相对湿度 |
|---|
| PM2.5 | 1 | | | | |
| O3 | -0.29a | 1 | | | |
| NO2 | 0.65a | -0.18a | 1 | | |
| 气温 | -0.44a | 0.67a | -0.29a | 1 | |
| 相对湿度 | -0.11a | -0.45a | -0.22a | -0.05a | 1 |
), ArticleFig(id=1324051198789157159, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324051187787497670, language=CN, label=表1, caption=
气象因素和空气污染物的Spearman相关性分析结果
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
| 变量 | PM2.5 | O3 | NO2 | 气温 | 相对湿度 |
|---|
| PM2.5 | 1 | | | | |
| O3 | -0.29a | 1 | | | |
| NO2 | 0.65a | -0.18a | 1 | | |
| 气温 | -0.44a | 0.67a | -0.29a | 1 | |
| 相对湿度 | -0.11a | -0.45a | -0.22a | -0.05a | 1 |
), ArticleFig(id=1324051198864654632, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324051187787497670, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=
Comparison of AIC between two alternative period definitions used in the temporal stratification analysis
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
| 时期划分依据 | 具体的时段划分(年) | 循环和呼吸系统总死亡的AIC | 循环系统死亡的AIC | 呼吸系统死亡的AIC |
|---|
| 按短期关联趋势划分 | 2014—2016,2017—2019,2020—2022 | -4 006.1 | -3 852.8 | -3 733.6 |
| 按照政策阶段划分 | 2014—2017,2018—2020,2021—2022 | -3 981.7 | -3 851.3 | -3 698.4 |
), ArticleFig(id=1324051198990483753, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324051187787497670, language=CN, label=表2, caption=
分期分析中两种不同时期划分方式的AIC比较
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
| 时期划分依据 | 具体的时段划分(年) | 循环和呼吸系统总死亡的AIC | 循环系统死亡的AIC | 呼吸系统死亡的AIC |
|---|
| 按短期关联趋势划分 | 2014—2016,2017—2019,2020—2022 | -4 006.1 | -3 852.8 | -3 733.6 |
| 按照政策阶段划分 | 2014—2017,2018—2020,2021—2022 | -3 981.7 | -3 851.3 | -3 698.4 |
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