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Article(id=1324044856959574389, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1324044701648695723, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202511287, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1763395200000, receivedDateStr=2025-11-18, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793606493463, onlineDateStr=2026-11-02, pubDate=1779638400000, pubDateStr=2026-05-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793606493463, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-11-02, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793606493463, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793606493463, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1324044701648695723, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2026', volume='53', issue='10', pageStart='1729', pageEnd='1920', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1779638400000', pubDateStr='2026-05-25', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1793606456434, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793670074552, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1324311535425815306, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1324044701648695723, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1324311535425815307, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1324044701648695723, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=1861, endPage=1865, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1324044857341256054, articleId=1324044856959574389, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=A study on the coordinated development trends and influencing factors of population, economy, and medical and health services，Qinghai, 2010-2023, columnId=1228016567846367388, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Health Policy and Management, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To analyze the coordinated development trend and influencing factors of population, economy and medical and health service system in Qinghai Province from 2010 to 2023, and to provide reference for promoting regional coordinated development.

Methods

Based on the data of “Qinghai Statistical Yearbook” and “China Statistical Yearbook” from 2010 to 2023, a comprehensive evaluation index system was constructed, the weight was determined by entropy method, and the coupling coordination degree model, grey correlation analysis and GM (1,1) prediction model were used for dynamic evaluation and identification of key factors.

Results

From 2010 to 2023, the coupling coordination degree of the population-economy-health service system in Qinghai Province increased from 0.455 to 0.818, and the coordination level increased from “on the verge of imbalance” to “good coordination”; the structure type has experienced the evolution of “medical lag-economic lag-population lag”. Grey correlation analysis identified the number of beds in health institutions (0.731 6) and the proportion of tertiary industry (0.716 0) as strong correlation factors. The GM (1,1) model predicts that the system will enter the excellent coordination level in 2026.

Conclusion

The coordinated development level of the three major systems in Qinghai Province has been steadily improved. In the future, efforts should be made to optimize the population structure, promote the service transformation of industrial structure, improve the efficiency of medical and health resources, and promote regional coordinated development.

, authors=Jin-peng WANG, Chan-chan WANG, Ji-fang LI, Ying-hua GUO, authorsList=Jin-peng WANG, Chan-chan WANG, Ji-fang LI, Ying-hua GUO, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Ying-hua GUO, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1324044857966207353, articleId=1324044856959574389, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=CN, title=2010—2023年青海省人口、经济与医疗卫生服务协调发展趋势及影响因素研究, columnId=1228016568014139551, journalTitle=现代预防医学, columnName=卫生政策与管理, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的

分析2010—2023年青海省人口、经济与医疗卫生服务系统的协调发展趋势及影响因素，为促进区域协调发展提供参考。

方法

基于2010—2023年《青海省统计年鉴》、《中国统计年鉴》数据，构建综合评价指标体系，采用熵值法确定权重，运用耦合协调度模型、灰色关联分析及GM（1，1）预测模型进行动态评估与识别关键因素。

结果

2010—2023年青海省人口-经济-医疗卫生服务系统耦合协调度由0.455上升至0.818，协调等级从“濒临失调”提升至“良好协调”；结构类型经历了“医疗滞后—经济滞后—人口滞后”的演变。灰色关联分析识别卫生机构床位数（0.731 6）、第三产业占比（0.716 0）等为强关联因素。GM（1，1）模型预测2026年系统将进入“优秀协调”等级。

结论

青海省三大系统协调发展水平稳步提升，未来应着力优化人口结构、推动产业结构服务化转型、提升医疗卫生资源效率，促进区域协调发展。

, authors=王金鹏, 王婵婵, 李吉芳, 郭映花, authorsList=王金鹏, 王婵婵, 李吉芳, 郭映花, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=郭映花, authorNote=

王金鹏（2001—），男，硕士在读，研究方向：卫生统计学

, correspAuthorsNote=
郭映花，E-mail：
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王金鹏（2001—），男，硕士在读，研究方向：卫生统计学

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Research on the impact of digital economy on regional coordinated development of the yellow river basin[D]. Baotou: Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology, 2025. 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Study on the impact of health resource allocation, social and economic factors on per capita health expenditure in China[D]. Qingdao: Qingdao University, 2021. 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Science and Technology News, 2025-10-29(13).(In Chinese), articleTitle=High-Quality development：The inevitable path to Chinese-Style modernization, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1324045183255445515, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044856959574389, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2025, volume=33, issue=6, pageStart=132, pageEnd=143, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=［21］, rfOrder=40, authorNames=吴焱斌, journalName=卫生法学, refType=null, unstructuredReference=吴焱斌．习近平关于健康中国论述的理论意蕴、内在逻辑与实践创新[J]. 卫生法学，2025, 33(6):132-143., articleTitle=习近平关于健康中国论述的理论意蕴、内在逻辑与实践创新, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1324045183343525900, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044856959574389, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2025, volume=33, issue=6, pageStart=132, pageEnd=143, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=［21］, rfOrder=41, authorNames=Wu YB, journalName=Health Law, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Wu YB. 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Analysis of the efficiency of provincial health resource allocation based on network DEA model[J]. Chinese Journal of Social Medicine, 2024, 41(6): 753-757. (In Chinese), articleTitle=Analysis of the efficiency of provincial health resource allocation based on network DEA model, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1324045184060751889, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044856959574389, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2024, volume=44, issue=6, pageStart=258, pageEnd=267, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=［23］, rfOrder=44, authorNames=陈兵兵, 盖迎春, 宋忠航, journalName=Journal of Desert Research, refType=null, unstructuredReference=陈兵兵，盖迎春，宋忠航，等. 祁连山地区生态质量时空变化及驱动力[J]. 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(In Chinese), articleTitle=Spatiotemporal changes and driving forces of ecological quality in Qilian mountain area, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1324045165995885533, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044856959574389, awardId=2024-wjzd-12, language=CN, fundingSource=2024年青海省卫生健康系统重点课题(2024-wjzd-12), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1324045166402733022, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044856959574389, awardId=qddt-2511, language=CN, fundingSource=青海大学2025年研究生导师创新团队建设项目(qddt-2511), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1324045149206086576, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044856959574389, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1324045149218669489, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044856959574389, companyId=1324045149206086576, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Department of Public Health, Qinghai University, Xining, Qinghai 810001, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1324045149231252402, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044856959574389, companyId=1324045149206086576, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=青海大学医学部公共卫生系，青海 西宁 810001)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1324045161398928336, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044856959574389, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Indicator system for the coupling coordination degree of population, economy, and medical and health services in Qinghai Province

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
系统指标名称单位
人口子系统人群自然增长率(%)
常住人口（万人）
就业人口（万人）
二三产业就业比重(%)
65岁以上比重(%)
经济子系统人均GDP（元）
人均可支配收入（元）
第二产业占GDP(%)
第三产业占GDP(%)
进口总额（万美元）
医疗卫生子系统卫生机构数（个）
卫生人员数（万人）
每万人拥有卫生技术人员数(人)
卫生机构床位数(万张)
医疗卫生机构诊疗人次(亿次)
入院人数(万人)
医院病床使用率(%)
医院平均住院日(日)
), ArticleFig(id=1324045161818358737, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044856959574389, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

青海省人口-经济-医疗卫生服务耦合协调度指标体系

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
系统指标名称单位
人口子系统人群自然增长率(%)
常住人口（万人）
就业人口（万人）
二三产业就业比重(%)
65岁以上比重(%)
经济子系统人均GDP（元）
人均可支配收入（元）
第二产业占GDP(%)
第三产业占GDP(%)
进口总额（万美元）
医疗卫生子系统卫生机构数（个）
卫生人员数（万人）
每万人拥有卫生技术人员数(人)
卫生机构床位数(万张)
医疗卫生机构诊疗人次(亿次)
入院人数(万人)
医院病床使用率(%)
医院平均住院日(日)
), ArticleFig(id=1324045161977742290, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044856959574389, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Classification system and grading criteria for the coupling coordination degree of population, economy, and medical and health services

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协调大类数值区间协调类型
失调衰退区间0.00～0.09极度失调衰退
0.10～0.19严重失调衰退
0.20～0.29中度失调衰退
0.30～0.39轻度失调衰退
过渡调和区间0.40～0.49濒临耦合协调
0.50～0.59勉强耦合协调
协调发展区间0.60～0.69初级耦合协调
0.70～0.79中级耦合协调
0.80～0.89良好耦合协调
0.90～1.00优秀耦合协调
), ArticleFig(id=1324045162262954963, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044856959574389, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

人口-经济-医疗卫生服务耦合协调度分类体系及等级划分标准

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
协调大类数值区间协调类型
失调衰退区间0.00～0.09极度失调衰退
0.10～0.19严重失调衰退
0.20～0.29中度失调衰退
0.30～0.39轻度失调衰退
过渡调和区间0.40～0.49濒临耦合协调
0.50～0.59勉强耦合协调
协调发展区间0.60～0.69初级耦合协调
0.70～0.79中级耦合协调
0.80～0.89良好耦合协调
0.90～1.00优秀耦合协调
), ArticleFig(id=1324045162359423957, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044856959574389, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Coupling coordination degree and its types in Qinghai Province, 2010—2023

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份人口综合评价经济综合评价医疗卫生服务综合评价综合协调指数耦合度耦合协调度协调等级滞后类型
20100.5190.1780.0960.2640.7830.455濒临失调医疗滞后
20110.5540.2770.1650.3320.8850.541勉强协调医疗滞后
20120.5830.3390.2330.3850.9350.600初级协调医疗滞后
20130.5580.3720.3310.4200.9730.640初级协调经济滞后
20140.5920.4190.4360.4820.9870.690初级协调经济滞后
20150.5920.4770.4390.5030.9910.706中级协调医疗滞后
20160.6120.4740.4900.5250.9930.722中级协调经济滞后
20170.6220.4120.5940.5430.9840.731中级协调经济滞后
20180.6370.4660.6360.5790.9890.757中级协调经济滞后
20190.6470.4470.7080.6010.9810.767中级协调经济滞后
20200.6820.3850.6790.5820.9660.750中级协调经济滞后
20210.6140.5300.7250.6230.9900.786中级协调经济滞后
20220.4760.6770.6680.6070.9870.774中级协调人口滞后
20230.4980.6790.8970.6910.9680.818良好协调人口滞后
), ArticleFig(id=1324045162699162583, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044856959574389, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

青海省2010—2023年耦合协调度及其类型

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份人口综合评价经济综合评价医疗卫生服务综合评价综合协调指数耦合度耦合协调度协调等级滞后类型
20100.5190.1780.0960.2640.7830.455濒临失调医疗滞后
20110.5540.2770.1650.3320.8850.541勉强协调医疗滞后
20120.5830.3390.2330.3850.9350.600初级协调医疗滞后
20130.5580.3720.3310.4200.9730.640初级协调经济滞后
20140.5920.4190.4360.4820.9870.690初级协调经济滞后
20150.5920.4770.4390.5030.9910.706中级协调医疗滞后
20160.6120.4740.4900.5250.9930.722中级协调经济滞后
20170.6220.4120.5940.5430.9840.731中级协调经济滞后
20180.6370.4660.6360.5790.9890.757中级协调经济滞后
20190.6470.4470.7080.6010.9810.767中级协调经济滞后
20200.6820.3850.6790.5820.9660.750中级协调经济滞后
20210.6140.5300.7250.6230.9900.786中级协调经济滞后
20220.4760.6770.6680.6070.9870.774中级协调人口滞后
20230.4980.6790.8970.6910.9680.818良好协调人口滞后
), ArticleFig(id=1324045162774660056, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044856959574389, language=EN, label=Table 4, caption=

Grey correlation results between coupling coordination degree and evaluation indicators in Qinghai Province

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
指标关联度排名
（绝对值）
卫生机构床位数0.731 61
第三产业占GDP0.716 02
医院平均住院日-0.710 63
入院人数0.708 64
常住人口0.689 65
卫生人员数0.669 96
医疗卫生机构诊疗人次0.661 97
人均可支配收入0.650 18
就业人口0.646 09
每万人拥有卫生技术人员数0.643 210
人均GDP0.642 811
65岁以上比重0.618 512
医院病床使用率0.607 013
二三产业就业比重0.605 414
进口总额0.595 915
卫生机构数0.595 216
人群自然增长率0.571 317
第二产业占GDP0.550 218
), ArticleFig(id=1324045163479303129, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044856959574389, language=CN, label=表4, caption=

青海省耦合协调度与评价指标灰色关联结果

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
指标关联度排名
（绝对值）
卫生机构床位数0.731 61
第三产业占GDP0.716 02
医院平均住院日-0.710 63
入院人数0.708 64
常住人口0.689 65
卫生人员数0.669 96
医疗卫生机构诊疗人次0.661 97
人均可支配收入0.650 18
就业人口0.646 09
每万人拥有卫生技术人员数0.643 210
人均GDP0.642 811
65岁以上比重0.618 512
医院病床使用率0.607 013
二三产业就业比重0.605 414
进口总额0.595 915
卫生机构数0.595 216
人群自然增长率0.571 317
第二产业占GDP0.550 218
), ArticleFig(id=1324045165148636123, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044856959574389, language=EN, label=Table 5, caption=

Prediction results of the GM (1,1) model

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序号年份预测值协调等级
120240.852良好耦合协调
220250.873良好耦合协调
320260.895优秀耦合协调
420270.917优秀耦合协调
520280.941优秀耦合协调
), ArticleFig(id=1324045165417071580, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1324044856959574389, language=CN, label=表5, caption=

GM(1,1)模型预测结果

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序号年份预测值协调等级
120240.852良好耦合协调
220250.873良好耦合协调
320260.895优秀耦合协调
420270.917优秀耦合协调
520280.941优秀耦合协调
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2010—2023年青海省人口、经济与医疗卫生服务协调发展趋势及影响因素研究
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王金鹏 , 王婵婵 , 李吉芳 , 郭映花
现代预防医学 | 卫生政策与管理 2026,53(10): 1861-1865
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现代预防医学 |卫生政策与管理 2026 , 53 (10) : 1861 -1865
2010—2023年青海省人口、经济与医疗卫生服务协调发展趋势及影响因素研究
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王金鹏, 王婵婵, 李吉芳, 郭映花
作者信息
  • 青海大学医学部公共卫生系，青海 西宁 810001
通讯作者:
郭映花，E-mail：
作者简介:

王金鹏（2001—），男，硕士在读，研究方向：卫生统计学

A study on the coordinated development trends and influencing factors of population, economy, and medical and health services，Qinghai, 2010-2023
Jin-peng WANG, Chan-chan WANG, Ji-fang LI, Ying-hua GUO
Affiliations
  • Department of Public Health, Qinghai University, Xining, Qinghai 810001, China
出版时间: 2026-05-25 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202511287
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摘要
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目的

分析2010—2023年青海省人口、经济与医疗卫生服务系统的协调发展趋势及影响因素，为促进区域协调发展提供参考。

方法

基于2010—2023年《青海省统计年鉴》、《中国统计年鉴》数据，构建综合评价指标体系，采用熵值法确定权重，运用耦合协调度模型、灰色关联分析及GM（1，1）预测模型进行动态评估与识别关键因素。

结果

2010—2023年青海省人口-经济-医疗卫生服务系统耦合协调度由0.455上升至0.818，协调等级从“濒临失调”提升至“良好协调”；结构类型经历了“医疗滞后—经济滞后—人口滞后”的演变。灰色关联分析识别卫生机构床位数（0.731 6）、第三产业占比（0.716 0）等为强关联因素。GM（1，1）模型预测2026年系统将进入“优秀协调”等级。

结论

青海省三大系统协调发展水平稳步提升，未来应着力优化人口结构、推动产业结构服务化转型、提升医疗卫生资源效率，促进区域协调发展。

区域协调发展  /  耦合协调度模型  /  灰色关联模型  /  GM(1,1)模型
Objective

To analyze the coordinated development trend and influencing factors of population, economy and medical and health service system in Qinghai Province from 2010 to 2023, and to provide reference for promoting regional coordinated development.

Methods

Based on the data of “Qinghai Statistical Yearbook” and “China Statistical Yearbook” from 2010 to 2023, a comprehensive evaluation index system was constructed, the weight was determined by entropy method, and the coupling coordination degree model, grey correlation analysis and GM (1,1) prediction model were used for dynamic evaluation and identification of key factors.

Results

From 2010 to 2023, the coupling coordination degree of the population-economy-health service system in Qinghai Province increased from 0.455 to 0.818, and the coordination level increased from “on the verge of imbalance” to “good coordination”; the structure type has experienced the evolution of “medical lag-economic lag-population lag”. Grey correlation analysis identified the number of beds in health institutions (0.731 6) and the proportion of tertiary industry (0.716 0) as strong correlation factors. The GM (1,1) model predicts that the system will enter the excellent coordination level in 2026.

Conclusion

The coordinated development level of the three major systems in Qinghai Province has been steadily improved. In the future, efforts should be made to optimize the population structure, promote the service transformation of industrial structure, improve the efficiency of medical and health resources, and promote regional coordinated development.

Regional coordinated development  /  Coupling coordination degree model  /  Grey correlation model  /  GM (1,1) model
王金鹏, 王婵婵, 李吉芳, 郭映花. 2010—2023年青海省人口、经济与医疗卫生服务协调发展趋势及影响因素研究. 现代预防医学, 2026 , 53 (10) : 1861 -1865 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202511287
Jin-peng WANG, Chan-chan WANG, Ji-fang LI, Ying-hua GUO. A study on the coordinated development trends and influencing factors of population, economy, and medical and health services，Qinghai, 2010-2023[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2026 , 53 (10) : 1861 -1865 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202511287
正文
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随着我国社会经济的持续发展和人民生活水平的不断提高，区域协调发展已成为推动高质量发展的重要内容[1]。人口、经济与医疗卫生服务作为区域发展的三大核心子系统，其协调程度不仅关系到居民生活质量，也直接影响区域可持续发展能力[2]。青海省地处我国西部，具有独特的自然地理条件和多民族聚居的社会特征，其人口结构、经济发展水平与医疗卫生资源配置之间的协调性问题，具有重要的研究价值[3]。长期以来，青海省在这三大系统间普遍存在不协调现象：一是，人口结构变化与经济发展不匹配，常面临劳动力外流与经济发展滞后的现象；二是医疗卫生资源分配与经济承载力失衡，受限于地方财政，在医疗卫生投入不足，并存在资源过度集中于中心城市、农村牧区资源匮乏的分布不均问题[4-5]。近年来，青海省在人口增长、产业结构调整和医疗卫生服务体系建设方面取得了显著进展，但与此同时，系统间的发展不平衡问题依然存在[6]。深入探讨人口-经济-医疗卫生服务三者之间的耦合协调关系，对于促进青海省区域协调发展，优化公共资源配置具有重要的理论意义。在现有研究中，针对西部地区特别是青海省的研究多为静态面板分析或单一子系统关联研究，缺乏将人口、经济与医疗卫生服务置于同一框架下进行长期动态的耦合协调分析[7-8]。本文通过构建人口、经济与医疗卫生服务三个子系统的评价指标体系，运用熵值法确定指标权重，结合耦合协调度模型、灰色关联模型及GM(1,1)灰色预测模型，对青海省2010—2023年间的耦合协调关系进行动态评估与趋势预测。通过揭示系统间协调发展的演变规律及其影响因素，旨在为青海省制定科学合理的发展政策提供参考依据，也为类似地区的协调发展研究提供借鉴。
1　资料与方法
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1.1　数据来源
此次研究的数据主要来源于《青海省统计年鉴》、《中国统计年鉴》，选取2010—2023年人口、经济与医疗卫生服务这3个子系统数据，并进行耦合协调性进行分析。在指标选取过程中，综合考虑数据的可获得性，同时遵循科学性、可操作性、可比性等原则，并且借鉴以往文献研究成果[9-10]，最终构建起人口-经济-医疗卫生服务3个系统。具体内容详见表1。
1.2　研究方法
1.2.1　熵值赋权法
本文采用熵值赋权法，依据客观信息数据的规模来确定各项指标的权重，能在较大程度上规避确定指标权重时的主观因素干扰。鉴于该方法在过往研究中已有大量阐释[11]，本文不再对其进行详细说明。
1.2.2　耦合协调度模型
耦合协调度模型源于耦合度模型，是分析多系统间相互作用程度与协调发展水平的重要工具[12-13]。为探究人口、经济与医疗卫生服务三个子系统间的协调关系，本研究分别计算三者的综合评价得分，并以此构建耦合度C与综合协调指数T，进而得出耦合协调度D。在待定系数α、β、γ的设定上，本研究将三个子系统视为同等重要，故均取值为1/3。根据计算得到的耦合协调度大小，参考已有研究成果[12]，将人口-经济-医疗卫生服务的协调发展现状划分为3个大类、10个亚类，具体分类详见表2。
1.2.3　灰色关联模型
灰色关联分析法源于灰色系统理论，是一种应用在处理小样本且信息不全系统中多因素关联性问题的有效工具[14]。该方法通过计算系统特征序列与相关因素序列之间的关联度，定量揭示各因素对系统行为的影响程度及相互关系[15]。为探究影响人口-经济-医疗卫生服务系统耦合协调度的影响因素，本研究将其年度耦合协调度值作为系统特征序列，将标准化处理后的各子系统18个评价指标数据作为相关因素序列。通过计算两者间的灰色关联度，可定量揭示各指标对系统协调发展的影响强度。参考相关学者研究成果[5]，结合本研究实际情况，将关联度数值区间划分为三个等级，以精确量化各因素与系统耦合协调度之间的关联强度：弱关联（0<r≤0.35）、中度关联（0.35<r≤0.7）、强关联（0.7<r≤1.0）。通过此方法，能够系统识别影响青海省三大子系统协调发展的关键因素与次要因素，为后续政策优化提供精准的实证依据。
1.2.4　GM(1,1)模型
GM(1,1)模型作为灰色系统理论的核心预测方法，其在小样本以及数据序列不完整的情形下有着良好的适用性，对中短期预测展现出显著优势[16]。本研究采用GM(1,1)模型预测人口-经济-医疗卫生服务系统耦合协调度的未来五年发展趋势，并基于预测结果分析未来卫生资源配置变化趋势，对今后优化本区域卫生资源配置提供参考。
2　结果与分析
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2.1　青海省人口-经济-医疗卫生服务耦合协调度演变趋势
2010—2021年青海省人口-经济-医疗卫生服务耦合度始终处于0.783以上，耦合协调度呈现持续上升趋势，由2010年的0.455增长至2023年的0.818，年均增长率约为5%。耦合协调等级从2010年的“濒临失调”逐步提升至2015年后的“中级协调”，系统间互动关系逐步改善，整体向协调发展方向转化。青海省人口-经济-医疗卫生服务综合协调指数从2010年的0.264上升至2023年的0.691，整体呈快速上升态势。各子系统发展态势如下：人口综合评价总体稳步上升，从2010年的0.519增至2021年的0.614，但在2022年略有回落，表明人口子系统发展较为平稳，但后续动力有待加强；经济综合评价波动较大，虽从2010年的0.178上升至2023年的0.679，但期间多次出现下降（如2017年、2020年）；医疗卫生服务综合评价增长最为显著，从2010年的0.096持续上升至2023年的0.897，说明医疗卫生资源投入与服务能力提升明显，逐步成为系统协调的重要支撑。见表3。
2.2　青海省耦合协调度主要关联因素分析
根据表5所示的灰色关联度分析结果可知，青海省人口-经济-医疗卫生服务系统耦合协调度与各评价指标之间的关联关系呈现出显著的层次特征。在18个评价指标中，卫生机构床位数（关联度0.731 6）、第三产业占GDP（关联度0.716 0）、医院平均住院日（关联度-0.710 6）和入院人数（关联度0.708 6）四个指标与耦合协调度的关联度均超过0.7，属于强关联，表明这些因素对系统协调发展的影响最为显著。其余指标均小于0.7大于0.35处于中度关联水平共计14个，涵盖了人口、经济和医疗卫生三大子系统的多个维度。而常住人口（0.689 6）、卫生人员数（0.669 9）等指标关联度相对较高，体现出基础人口规模和人力资源配置对系统协调的重要支撑。见表4。
2.3　青海省耦合协调度趋势分析
跟据根据GM(1,1)模型的构建方法，对耦合协调度进行建模分析，计算出发展系数a=-0.021 5，灰色作用量为u=0.736 2，耦合协调度预测模型为：，模型平均相对误差为3.33%，后验差比值C：0.282 3，小误差概率P为1，模型拟合精度较好。基于该模型对未来五年（2024—2028年）青海省耦合协调度发展趋势进行预测，结果表明青海省耦合协调度将继续保持稳定增长态势，预计将从2024年的0.852持续提升至2028年的0.941。根据耦合协调度等级划分，系统将在“良好协调”等级的基础上，进一步向“优质协调”等级迈进。见表5。
3　讨论
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本研究基于耦合协调度模型、灰色关联分析及GM(1,1)预测模型，系统评估了青海省2010—2023年人口-经济-医疗卫生服务系统的协调关系及其演变趋势。研究结果显示，青海省三系统耦合协调度从2010年的0.455提升至2023年的0.818，协调等级由“濒临失调”逐步跃升至“良好协调”，反映出系统间互动关系持续优化，协调发展态势基本形成。进一步深入分析其内在机制与发展逻辑，有助于揭示西部多民族地区复杂系统协调发展的路径依赖与政策突破口。
3.1　系统协调演变的动态机制与阶段转型
青海省人口-经济-医疗卫生服务系统的协调类型演变，呈现出“医疗滞后型—经济滞后型—人口滞后型”的阶段性特征，这一过程不仅反映了子系统间发展速度的差异，更揭示了区域发展中结构性矛盾的动态转化。早期（2010—2012年）医疗卫生服务滞后，本质上是由公共服务供给滞后于快速城镇化和人口集聚所导致的基础设施短板问题[17]；中期（2013—2021年）经济滞后则与青海省依赖资源型经济、产业结构单一、抗风险能力较弱密切相关[18]；而近期（2022—2023年）出现的人口滞后，则提示在物质资源配置逐步完善的背景下，人口结构老龄化、人力资源流失与素质提升缓慢等“软瓶颈”正成为新的系统约束[19]。这一转型符合区域发展阶段理论中“要素驱动—投资驱动—创新驱动”的演进逻辑，也说明协调发展并非静态均衡，而是动态适配与系统迭代的过程[20-21]。
3.2　关键影响因素的结构识别与政策启示
灰色关联分析进一步从指标层面揭示，卫生机构床位数、第三产业占比、医院平均住院日与入院人数等4项指标与协调度的关联度均超过0.7，构成强关联群体。这其中，医疗资源“硬件”配置（床位数）与“软件”效率（平均住院日）共同影响系统协调，提示单纯增加资源投入而不提升服务效率，仍难以实现系统最优[22]。另一方面，第三产业占比的高关联性（0.716 0）表明青海省经济结构转型，尤其是服务业与健康产业的融合发展，对系统协调具有显著的拉动作用。相比之下，第二产业占比关联度较低（0.550 2），进一步说明传统工业化路径对青海协调发展的带动力已趋弱化，未来应更加注重产业结构的“轻量化”与“服务化”转型[23]。
3.3　从协调到优质协调：未来路径的挑战与前瞻
GM(1,1)模型预测显示，青海省耦合协调度将于2026年进入“优质协调”等级，2028年预计达到0.941。这一乐观趋势的背后，仍需警惕三方面潜在风险：一是经济波动性，如模型中所见2017、2020年经济综合评价的回落，反映出青海经济体系的脆弱性；二是人口结构问题，如老龄化加剧、青年人口外流可能导致人口子系统得分难以持续提升；三是医疗资源的空间不均衡，资源配置在城乡间的协调效应。因此，未来政策应不应满足于协调度的数值提升，更应关注系统内部的结构健康性与外部环境的适应性，推动青海从“数量型协调”向“质量型协调”深化转型。
基于上述研究，本研究系统分析了青海省人口、经济与医疗卫生服务系统的耦合协调演变特征及其影响因素，虽具有一定的区域代表性，但仍存在局限性，研究范围仅限于青海省，未涉及其他西部省份或全国层面的横向对比分析，使得研究结论在推广至其他地区时需谨慎。未来研究将进一步拓展研究区域范围，开展多省份或城市群的对比分析，并结合微观数据和质性方法，深化对协调发展机制的理解。
基金
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  • 2024年青海省卫生健康系统重点课题(2024-wjzd-12)
  • 青海大学2025年研究生导师创新团队建设项目(qddt-2511)
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2026年第53卷第10期
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202511287
  • 接收时间：2025-11-18
  • 首发时间：2026-11-02
  • 出版时间：2026-05-25
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  • 收稿日期：2025-11-18
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2024年青海省卫生健康系统重点课题(2024-wjzd-12)
青海大学2025年研究生导师创新团队建设项目(qddt-2511)
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    青海大学医学部公共卫生系，青海 西宁 810001

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郭映花，E-mail：
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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