Article(id=1322590080720548653, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1322589954702688372, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202407061, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1720195200000, receivedDateStr=2024-07-06, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793259647778, onlineDateStr=2026-10-29, pubDate=1736438400000, pubDateStr=2025-01-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793259647778, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-29, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793259647778, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793259647778, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1322589954702688372, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2025', volume='52', issue='1', pageStart='1', pageEnd='192', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1736438400000', pubDateStr='2025-01-10', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1793259617734, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793260023378, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1322591656147276425, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1322589954702688372, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1322591656147276426, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1322589954702688372, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=33, endPage=39, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1322590080930263854, articleId=1322590080720548653, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Trends in coronary heart disease mortality in China from 1992 to 2021: an age-period-cohort model analysis, columnId=1240413921954295836, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Epidemiology and Statistical Methods, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective To analyze the trends in coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in China from 1992 to 2021, providing a basis for adjusting and optimizing CHD prevention and treatment policies.
Methods This study employed the Join point regression model to calculate the annual percentage change in mortality trends, exploring variations in CHD mortality over consecutive time periods. Additionally, an age-period-cohort (APC) model was utilized to compute effect coefficients, assessing the individual impacts of age, period, and birth cohort on CHD mortality risk.
Results From 1992 to 2021, the overall mortality rates for CHD in both genders showed an upward trend, with average annual percentage changes of 0.584%, 0.979%, and 0.097%, respectively. The APC model estimates revealed that the mortality risk for the age group of 90 to 94 was 614.97 times higher for males and 519.08 times higher for females compared to the age group of 15 to 19. In terms of period effects, the CHD mortality risk for males and females from 2017 to 2021 was 2.58 times and 1.78 times higher, respectively, than that from 1992 to 1996. Regarding cohort effects, individuals born between 1902 and 1906 had a CHD mortality risk 25.07 times and 24.41 times higher for males and females, respectively, compared to those born between 2002 and 2006.
Conclusion The overall CHD mortality rate in China is on the rise, with a focus on male and elderly populations. Age, period, and birth cohort each have independent effects on CHD mortality risk. Therefore, a multifaceted approach is necessary to advance preventive measures, control risk factors, and reduce mortality risks among residents.
, authors=Xia XIA, Sheng-bi WU, Li DIAO, authorsList=Xia XIA, Sheng-bi WU, Li DIAO, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Li DIAO, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1322590082008199991, articleId=1322590080720548653, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=CN, title=1992—2021年中国冠心病死亡趋势及年龄-时期-队列模型分析, columnId=1228016567632462653, journalTitle=现代预防医学, columnName=流行病与统计方法, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的 分析1992—2021年我国冠心病死亡趋势，为调整及优化冠心病防治政策提供依据。
方法 本研究通过joinpoint回归模型计算年度趋势变化百分比，探究在连续时间段中冠心病死亡趋势的变化，同时应用年龄-时期-队列模型（age-period-cohort，APC）计算效应系数，以此评估冠心病死亡风险在年龄、时期与出生队列方面的单个影响效应。
结果 1992—2021年全国、男性、女性冠心病死亡率总体均呈现上升趋势，平均年度变化百分比分别为0.584%、0.979%、0.097%。APC模型估计显示，年龄效应方面，男性、女性90～94岁年龄组的冠心病死亡风险分别是15～19岁年龄组的614.97和519.08倍；时期效应方面，男性、女性2017—2021年冠心病死亡风险分别是1992—1996年的2.58和1.78倍；队列效应方面，出生于1902—1906年的男性、女性分别是出生于2002—2006年的25.07和24.41倍。
结论 我国冠心病死亡率总体呈现上升趋势，男性与老年居民是重点关注人群。年龄、时期与出生队列对冠心病死亡风险均有独立影响效应。因此，应多措并举，前移关口，竭力控制冠心病危险因素，降低居民死亡风险。
, authors=夏霞, 吴生碧, 刁丽, authorsList=夏霞, 吴生碧, 刁丽, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=刁丽, authorNote=
夏霞（1989—），女，本科，中级职称，研究方向：公共卫生
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本刊刊出的所有文章不代表中华预防医学会和本刊编委会的观点，除非特别声明。, copyrightOwner=中华预防医学会和四川大学华西公共卫生学院, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=r05dPtQpQ9bhLAEUetRrYg==, magXml=4UjzYYD9fGOk28RjfUPqbg==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=e6fHnJI3qxgYJYht6bv2aQ==, pdfFileSize=896739, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=Pxduq7uyx35U1bd8OnZ5Zw==, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=PrURKL42RZ7opF+VCvm2DA==, mapNumber=null, fund=null)}, authors=[Author(id=1322590082385687356, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590080720548653, orderNo=0, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, nameCn=null, orcid=null, stid=null, country=null, authorPic=null, dead=0, email=null, emailSecond=null, emailThird=null, correspondingAuthor=0, authorType=1, ext={EN=AuthorExt(id=1322590082461184830, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590080720548653, authorId=1322590082385687356, language=EN, stringName=Xia XIA, firstName=Xia, middleName=null, lastName=XIA, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=People’s Hospital of Dazu District, Chongqing 402360, China, bio=null, bioImg=null, bioContent=null, aboutCorrespAuthor=null), CN=AuthorExt(id=1322590082545070911, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590080720548653, authorId=1322590082385687356, language=CN, stringName=夏霞, firstName=null, middleName=null, lastName=null, prefix=null, suffix=null, authorComment=null, nameInitials=null, affiliation=null, department=null, xref=null, address=重庆市大足区人民医院，重庆 402360, bio={"content":"
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50(20): 3663-3668.(In Chinese), articleTitle=Trend and age-period-cohort model analysis of esophageal cancer mortality in China,1990-2019, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1322590086290584413, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590080720548653, awardId=zdxk201606, language=CN, fundingSource=重庆市区域医学重点学科建设项目(zdxk201606), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1322590082280829752, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590080720548653, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1322590082293412665, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590080720548653, companyId=1322590082280829752, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=People’s Hospital of Dazu District, Chongqing 402360, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1322590082305995578, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590080720548653, companyId=1322590082280829752, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=重庆市大足区人民医院，重庆 402360)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1322590085413974867, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590080720548653, language=EN, label=Figure 1, caption=
Trends in mortality of CHD in China and between men and women from 1992 to 2021, figureFileSmall=13mu33trb6hOuhYCjlzSCg==, figureFileBig=Pxduq7uyx35U1bd8OnZ5Zw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322590085485278036, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590080720548653, language=CN, label=图1, caption=
1992—2021年中国冠心病死亡率在全国及男女间的变化趋势, figureFileSmall=13mu33trb6hOuhYCjlzSCg==, figureFileBig=Pxduq7uyx35U1bd8OnZ5Zw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322590085665633109, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590080720548653, language=EN, label=Figure 2, caption=
Trends in CHD mortality by age and gender in China from 1992 to 2021, figureFileSmall=N7pVbL9jbGA2a7ljD8Nn5Q==, figureFileBig=m6kIBBMTtTZayv+RNgoS/w==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322590085720159062, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590080720548653, language=CN, label=图2, caption=
1992—2021年中国不同性别年龄冠心病的死亡趋势变化注：A表示女性；B表示男性。
, figureFileSmall=N7pVbL9jbGA2a7ljD8Nn5Q==, figureFileBig=m6kIBBMTtTZayv+RNgoS/w==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322590085778879319, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590080720548653, language=EN, label=Figure 3, caption=
Relative risk of coronary heart disease mortality in China based on APC model effects, figureFileSmall=lFyRmfhEdlyLKCqKqaNR5Q==, figureFileBig=MrAhk5YyziY+ePZwV7XtIQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322590085862765400, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590080720548653, language=CN, label=图3, caption=
基于APC模型效应的中国冠心病致死风险相对危险度注：A1～A16分别表示15～19岁、……、90～94岁；P1～P6分别表示1992—1996年、……、2017—2021年；C1～C21分别表示1902—1906年、……、2002—2006年。
, figureFileSmall=lFyRmfhEdlyLKCqKqaNR5Q==, figureFileBig=MrAhk5YyziY+ePZwV7XtIQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322590085913097049, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590080720548653, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=
Trends in mortality from CHD in China from 1992 to 2021
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
| 年份（年） | 死亡率(1/10万) | APC(%，95%CI)值 | AAPC(%，95%CI)值 | t值 | P值 |
|---|
| 1992年 | 2021年 |
|---|
| 全国 | 93.24 | 110.91 | | 0.584(0.268～0.901) | 3.63 | <0.001 |
| 1992—1999 | | | 0.530(0.141～0.920) * | | | |
| 1999—2004 | | | 5.948(5.185～6.717) * | | | |
| 2004—2007 | | | -1.975(-4.127～0.224) | | | |
| 2007—2011 | | | 1.931(0.675～3.202) * | | | |
| 2011—2021 | | | -1.721(-1.998～-1.444) * | | | |
| 女性 | 81.98 | 86.10 | | 0.097(-0.196～0.392) | 0.65 | 0.516 |
| 1992—1998 | | | -0.605(-1.057～-0.152) * | | | |
| 1998—2004 | | | 5.155(4.619～5.693) * | | | |
| 2004—2007 | | | -2.435(-4.418～-0.410) * | | | |
| 2007—2011 | | | 1.146(-0.066～2.372) | | | |
| 2011—2021 | | | -2.064(-2.321～-1.807) * | | | |
| 男性 | 111.14 | 148.40 | | 0.979(0.582～1.377) | 4.85 | <0.001 |
| 1992—1999 | | | 0.948(0.450～1.447) * | | | |
| 1999—2004 | | | 6.321(5.374～7.277) * | | | |
| 2004—2007 | | | -1.004(-3.539～1.598) | | | |
| 2007—2011 | | | 2.252(0.590～3.941) * | | | |
| 2011—2021 | | | -1.478(-1.882～-1.073) * | | | |
), ArticleFig(id=1322590085992788826, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590080720548653, language=CN, label=表1, caption=
1992—2021年中国冠心病死亡率变化趋势
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
| 年份（年） | 死亡率(1/10万) | APC(%，95%CI)值 | AAPC(%，95%CI)值 | t值 | P值 |
|---|
| 1992年 | 2021年 |
|---|
| 全国 | 93.24 | 110.91 | | 0.584(0.268～0.901) | 3.63 | <0.001 |
| 1992—1999 | | | 0.530(0.141～0.920) * | | | |
| 1999—2004 | | | 5.948(5.185～6.717) * | | | |
| 2004—2007 | | | -1.975(-4.127～0.224) | | | |
| 2007—2011 | | | 1.931(0.675～3.202) * | | | |
| 2011—2021 | | | -1.721(-1.998～-1.444) * | | | |
| 女性 | 81.98 | 86.10 | | 0.097(-0.196～0.392) | 0.65 | 0.516 |
| 1992—1998 | | | -0.605(-1.057～-0.152) * | | | |
| 1998—2004 | | | 5.155(4.619～5.693) * | | | |
| 2004—2007 | | | -2.435(-4.418～-0.410) * | | | |
| 2007—2011 | | | 1.146(-0.066～2.372) | | | |
| 2011—2021 | | | -2.064(-2.321～-1.807) * | | | |
| 男性 | 111.14 | 148.40 | | 0.979(0.582～1.377) | 4.85 | <0.001 |
| 1992—1999 | | | 0.948(0.450～1.447) * | | | |
| 1999—2004 | | | 6.321(5.374～7.277) * | | | |
| 2004—2007 | | | -1.004(-3.539～1.598) | | | |
| 2007—2011 | | | 2.252(0.590～3.941) * | | | |
| 2011—2021 | | | -1.478(-1.882～-1.073) * | | | |
), ArticleFig(id=1322590086072480603, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590080720548653, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=
Analysis of CHD mortality in China based on APC model
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
| 组别 | 女性 | 男性 |
|---|
| 效应系数（95%CI） | P值 | 效应系数（95%CI） | P值 |
|---|
| 年龄（岁） | | | | |
| 15～19 | -2.720（-3.467～-1.973） | <0.001 | -2.897（-3.672～-2.123） | <0.001 |
| 20～24 | -2.222（-2.733～-1.711） | <0.001 | -2.425（-2.967～-1.883） | <0.001 |
| 25～29 | -2.135（-2.590～-1.679） | <0.001 | -2.128（-2.579～-1.677） | <0.001 |
| 30～34 | -1.848（-2.222～-1.474） | <0.001 | -1.643（-1.998～-1.289） | <0.001 |
| 35～39 | -1.493（-1.797～-1.188） | <0.001 | -1.181（-1.470～-0.892） | <0.001 |
| 40～44 | -1.097（-1.346～-0.849） | <0.001 | -0.744（-0.984～-0.503） | <0.001 |
| 45～49 | -0.904（-1.119～-0.690） | <0.001 | -0.591（-0.803～-0.378） | <0.001 |
| 50～54 | -0.509（-0.682～-0.336） | <0.001 | -0.288（-0.465～-0.111） | 0.001 |
| 55～59 | -0.149（-0.288～-0.010） | 0.035 | -0.015（-0.160～0.130） | 0.841 |
| 60～64 | 0.279（0.170～0.388） | <0.001 | 0.259（0.142～0.375） | <0.001 |
| 65～69 | 0.737（0.651～0.823） | <0.001 | 0.610（0.517～0.702） | <0.001 |
| 70～74 | 1.283（1.208～1.358） | <0.001 | 1.050（0.973～1.128） | <0.001 |
| 75～79 | 1.800（1.719～1.881） | <0.001 | 1.487（1.409～1.564） | <0.001 |
| 80～84 | 2.458（2.359～2.556） | <0.001 | 2.067（1.976～2.158） | <0.001 |
| 85～89 | 2.988（2.864～3.112） | <0.001 | 2.916（2.803～3.029） | <0.001 |
| 90～94 | 3.532（3.380～3.685） | <0.001 | 3.524（3.384～3.664） | <0.001 |
| 时期（年） | | | | |
| 1992—1996 | -0.396（-0.481～-0.310） | <0.001 | -0.606（-0.691～-0.521） | <0.001 |
| 1997—2001 | -0.158（-0.211～-0.106） | <0.001 | -0.276（-0.328～-0.224） | <0.001 |
| 2002—2006 | 0.042（0.019～0.066） | <0.001 | 0.017（-0.008～0.042） | 0.186 |
| 2007—2011 | 0.191（0.168～0.214） | <0.001 | 0.234（0.209～0.259） | <0.001 |
| 2012—2016 | 0.137（0.085～0.189） | <0.001 | 0.291（0.239～0.342） | <0.001 |
| 2017—2021 | 0.183（0.099～0.267） | <0.001 | 0.341（0.258～0.423） | <0.001 |
| 出生队列（年） | | | | |
| 1902—1906 | 1.238（1.039～1.437） | <0.001 | 1.470（1.273～1.666） | <0.001 |
| 1907—1911 | 1.235（1.064～1.406） | <0.001 | 1.273（1.104～1.441） | <0.001 |
| 1912—1916 | 1.167（1.020～1.314） | <0.001 | 1.248（1.104～1.392） | <0.001 |
| 1917—1921 | 1.101（0.974～1.228） | <0.001 | 1.102（0.978～1.226） | <0.001 |
| 1922—1926 | 1.037（0.924～1.151） | <0.001 | 0.942（0.832～1.052） | <0.001 |
| 1927—1931 | 0.955（0.847～1.064） | <0.001 | 0.805（0.701～0.909） | <0.001 |
| 1932—1936 | 0.867（0.753～0.982） | <0.001 | 0.716（0.606～0.826） | <0.001 |
| 1937—1941 | 0.769（0.639～0.900） | <0.001 | 0.582（0.456～0.708） | <0.001 |
| 1942—1946 | 0.605（0.452～0.758） | <0.001 | 0.387（0.238～0.535） | <0.001 |
| 1947—1951 | 0.459（0.279～0.639） | <0.001 | 0.239（0.064～0.414） | 0.008 |
| 1952—1956 | 0.254（0.043～0.465） | 0.018 | 0.047（-0.158～0.251） | 0.656 |
| 1957—1961 | 0.034（-0.211～0.279） | 0.784 | -0.128（-0.364～0.108） | 0.287 |
| 1962—1966 | -0.181（-0.463～0.101） | 0.209 | -0.310（-0.578～-0.041） | 0.024 |
| 1967—1971 | -0.423（-0.746～-0.100） | 0.010 | -0.490（-0.794～-0.187） | 0.002 |
| 1972—1976 | -0.682（-1.051～-0.314） | <0.001 | -0.705（-1.049～-0.361） | <0.001 |
| 1977—1981 | -0.880（-1.294～-0.466） | <0.001 | -0.797（-1.176～-0.418） | <0.001 |
| 1982—1986 | -1.090（-1.592～-0.588） | <0.001 | -0.910（-1.356～-0.463） | <0.001 |
| 1987—1991 | -1.308（-1.939～-0.676） | <0.001 | -1.049（-1.604～-0.494） | <0.001 |
| 1992—1996 | -1.526（-2.354～-0.698） | <0.001 | -1.257（-2.009～-0.504） | 0.001 |
| 1997—2001 | -1.675（-2.800～-0.551） | 0.004 | -1.411（-2.469～-0.353） | 0.009 |
| 2002—2006 | -1.957（-4.244～0.329） | 0.093 | -1.752（-3.936～0.431） | 0.116 |
| 模型拟合检验 | | | | |
| 偏差（Deviance） | 0.76 | 1.65 |
| 最小信息量准则（AIC） | 7.12 | 8.28 |
| 贝叶斯信息准则（BIC） | -213.02 | -163.46 |
), ArticleFig(id=1322590086164755292, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590080720548653, language=CN, label=表2, caption=
基于APC模型的中国冠心病死亡率分析
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
| 组别 | 女性 | 男性 |
|---|
| 效应系数（95%CI） | P值 | 效应系数（95%CI） | P值 |
|---|
| 年龄（岁） | | | | |
| 15～19 | -2.720（-3.467～-1.973） | <0.001 | -2.897（-3.672～-2.123） | <0.001 |
| 20～24 | -2.222（-2.733～-1.711） | <0.001 | -2.425（-2.967～-1.883） | <0.001 |
| 25～29 | -2.135（-2.590～-1.679） | <0.001 | -2.128（-2.579～-1.677） | <0.001 |
| 30～34 | -1.848（-2.222～-1.474） | <0.001 | -1.643（-1.998～-1.289） | <0.001 |
| 35～39 | -1.493（-1.797～-1.188） | <0.001 | -1.181（-1.470～-0.892） | <0.001 |
| 40～44 | -1.097（-1.346～-0.849） | <0.001 | -0.744（-0.984～-0.503） | <0.001 |
| 45～49 | -0.904（-1.119～-0.690） | <0.001 | -0.591（-0.803～-0.378） | <0.001 |
| 50～54 | -0.509（-0.682～-0.336） | <0.001 | -0.288（-0.465～-0.111） | 0.001 |
| 55～59 | -0.149（-0.288～-0.010） | 0.035 | -0.015（-0.160～0.130） | 0.841 |
| 60～64 | 0.279（0.170～0.388） | <0.001 | 0.259（0.142～0.375） | <0.001 |
| 65～69 | 0.737（0.651～0.823） | <0.001 | 0.610（0.517～0.702） | <0.001 |
| 70～74 | 1.283（1.208～1.358） | <0.001 | 1.050（0.973～1.128） | <0.001 |
| 75～79 | 1.800（1.719～1.881） | <0.001 | 1.487（1.409～1.564） | <0.001 |
| 80～84 | 2.458（2.359～2.556） | <0.001 | 2.067（1.976～2.158） | <0.001 |
| 85～89 | 2.988（2.864～3.112） | <0.001 | 2.916（2.803～3.029） | <0.001 |
| 90～94 | 3.532（3.380～3.685） | <0.001 | 3.524（3.384～3.664） | <0.001 |
| 时期（年） | | | | |
| 1992—1996 | -0.396（-0.481～-0.310） | <0.001 | -0.606（-0.691～-0.521） | <0.001 |
| 1997—2001 | -0.158（-0.211～-0.106） | <0.001 | -0.276（-0.328～-0.224） | <0.001 |
| 2002—2006 | 0.042（0.019～0.066） | <0.001 | 0.017（-0.008～0.042） | 0.186 |
| 2007—2011 | 0.191（0.168～0.214） | <0.001 | 0.234（0.209～0.259） | <0.001 |
| 2012—2016 | 0.137（0.085～0.189） | <0.001 | 0.291（0.239～0.342） | <0.001 |
| 2017—2021 | 0.183（0.099～0.267） | <0.001 | 0.341（0.258～0.423） | <0.001 |
| 出生队列（年） | | | | |
| 1902—1906 | 1.238（1.039～1.437） | <0.001 | 1.470（1.273～1.666） | <0.001 |
| 1907—1911 | 1.235（1.064～1.406） | <0.001 | 1.273（1.104～1.441） | <0.001 |
| 1912—1916 | 1.167（1.020～1.314） | <0.001 | 1.248（1.104～1.392） | <0.001 |
| 1917—1921 | 1.101（0.974～1.228） | <0.001 | 1.102（0.978～1.226） | <0.001 |
| 1922—1926 | 1.037（0.924～1.151） | <0.001 | 0.942（0.832～1.052） | <0.001 |
| 1927—1931 | 0.955（0.847～1.064） | <0.001 | 0.805（0.701～0.909） | <0.001 |
| 1932—1936 | 0.867（0.753～0.982） | <0.001 | 0.716（0.606～0.826） | <0.001 |
| 1937—1941 | 0.769（0.639～0.900） | <0.001 | 0.582（0.456～0.708） | <0.001 |
| 1942—1946 | 0.605（0.452～0.758） | <0.001 | 0.387（0.238～0.535） | <0.001 |
| 1947—1951 | 0.459（0.279～0.639） | <0.001 | 0.239（0.064～0.414） | 0.008 |
| 1952—1956 | 0.254（0.043～0.465） | 0.018 | 0.047（-0.158～0.251） | 0.656 |
| 1957—1961 | 0.034（-0.211～0.279） | 0.784 | -0.128（-0.364～0.108） | 0.287 |
| 1962—1966 | -0.181（-0.463～0.101） | 0.209 | -0.310（-0.578～-0.041） | 0.024 |
| 1967—1971 | -0.423（-0.746～-0.100） | 0.010 | -0.490（-0.794～-0.187） | 0.002 |
| 1972—1976 | -0.682（-1.051～-0.314） | <0.001 | -0.705（-1.049～-0.361） | <0.001 |
| 1977—1981 | -0.880（-1.294～-0.466） | <0.001 | -0.797（-1.176～-0.418） | <0.001 |
| 1982—1986 | -1.090（-1.592～-0.588） | <0.001 | -0.910（-1.356～-0.463） | <0.001 |
| 1987—1991 | -1.308（-1.939～-0.676） | <0.001 | -1.049（-1.604～-0.494） | <0.001 |
| 1992—1996 | -1.526（-2.354～-0.698） | <0.001 | -1.257（-2.009～-0.504） | 0.001 |
| 1997—2001 | -1.675（-2.800～-0.551） | 0.004 | -1.411（-2.469～-0.353） | 0.009 |
| 2002—2006 | -1.957（-4.244～0.329） | 0.093 | -1.752（-3.936～0.431） | 0.116 |
| 模型拟合检验 | | | | |
| 偏差（Deviance） | 0.76 | 1.65 |
| 最小信息量准则（AIC） | 7.12 | 8.28 |
| 贝叶斯信息准则（BIC） | -213.02 | -163.46 |
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