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Article(id=1322590046541173399, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1322589954702688372, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202407087, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1720368000000, receivedDateStr=2024-07-08, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1793259639630, onlineDateStr=2026-10-29, pubDate=1736438400000, pubDateStr=2025-01-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1793259639630, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-10-29, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1793259639630, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1793259639630, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1322589954702688372, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2025', volume='52', issue='1', pageStart='1', pageEnd='192', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1736438400000', pubDateStr='2025-01-10', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1793259617734, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1793260023378, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1322591656147276425, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1322589954702688372, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1322591656147276426, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1322589954702688372, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=63, endPage=68, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1322590046755082904, articleId=1322590046541173399, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Analysis of the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Qingdao based on a distributed lag nonlinear model, columnId=1228016570660745413, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Environmental and Occupational Health, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To investigate the effects of daily average temperature and relative humidity on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Qingdao, as well as their lagged effects, providing data support for prevention and control strategies in the city.

Methods

Utilizing HFMD case data from 2010 to 2019 provided by the Qingdao Center for Disease Control and Prevention and meteorological data measured by the China National Meteorological Science Data Center, we first employed Pearson correlation analysis to identify key meteorological factors. Subsequently, the Prophet model was used to analyze the periodicity and trends of HFMD incidence in relation to meteorological factors. Finally, a distributed lag nonlinear model was applied to quantify the lagged effects.

Results

The study found that when the daily average temperature in Qingdao ranged from 23°C to 30°C, the relative risk (RR) of HFMD significantly increased, peaking at approximately 2.2 when the temperature reached 30°C. Similarly, when relative humidity was between 70% and 90%, the RR increased notably, peaking at around 2.5 as humidity approached 90%. Additionally, the effects of daily average temperature and relative humidity on HFMD incidence exhibited lagged characteristics, typically with a lag period of about 7 days. When the daily average temperature exceeded 17°C, the risk of HFMD transmission due to lagged effects gradually increased; likewise, when relative humidity surpassed 70%, the lag period was approximately 7 days, resulting in a significant enhancement of transmission risk.

Conclusion

The findings indicate that when the temperature in Qingdao approaches 23°C or humidity nears 70%, there will be a significant impact on HFMD incidence one week later. Therefore, it is recommended that relevant departments in Qingdao implement preventive measures in advance during these meteorological conditions to reduce the risk of HFMD transmission.

, authors=Yan LIU1, Fei-yan ZHANG2, Hai-ping DUAN1, Yi-wan LAI2, Jing JIA1, Xue-ling XIN1, authorsList=Yan LIU, Fei-yan ZHANG, Hai-ping DUAN, Yi-wan LAI, Jing JIA, Xue-ling XIN, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Hai-ping DUAN, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1322590050446070441, articleId=1322590046541173399, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=CN, title=基于分布式滞后非线性模型分析青岛市气象因素与手足口病发病间关联, columnId=1228016571273113811, journalTitle=现代预防医学, columnName=环境与职业卫生, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的

探究青岛市日均温度与相对湿度对手足口病发病的影响及其滞后效应，为青岛市防控策略提供数据支持。

方法

基于青岛市疾控中心提供的青岛市2010—2019年手足口病病例与中国国家气象科学数据中心测量的气象数据，首先利用Pearson相关性分析筛选关键气象因素，其次通过Prophet模型分析手足口病发病和气象因素的周期性与趋势，最后采用分布式滞后非线性模型量化滞后效应。

结果

研究发现，当青岛市日均气温在23～30℃范围内，手足口病发病的相对风险（RR）显著上升，日均气温到达30℃时RR达到峰值约2.2。当相对湿度在70%～90%区间时，RR明显上升，相对湿度接近90%，RR达到峰值约2.5。此外，日均气温与相对湿度对手足口病发病的影响具有滞后性，通常滞后期约为7 d左右。日均温度高于17℃时，滞后效应导致的手足口病传播风险逐渐增大；相对湿度超过70%后，滞后期约为7 d，手足口病的传播风险显著增强。

结论

青岛市气温接近23℃或湿度接近70%时，将在一周后显著影响手足口病的发病。因此，建议青岛市相关部门在这些气象条件出现时，提前采取防控措施，以降低手足口病的传播风险。

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刘艳与张飞燕为共同第一作者

刘艳（1979—），女，硕士，副主任技师，研究方向：传染病监测及预防

张飞燕（1996—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：信息采集与物联网

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段海平，E-mail:
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Disease Surveillance, 2024, 39(9): 1157-1162.(In Chinese), articleTitle=Seasonal characteristics of hand, foot and mouth disease in Xining, Qinghai,2013-2022, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1322590064274690814, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590046541173399, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2023, volume=null, issue=9, pageStart=64, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[18], rfOrder=27, authorNames=赵斌, 孙文钰, 汪绍文, journalName=中国海关, refType=null, unstructuredReference=赵斌，孙文钰，汪绍文. 手足口病传染季需谨慎[J]. 中国海关，2023，（9）：64., articleTitle=手足口病传染季需谨慎, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1322590064362771199, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590046541173399, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2023, volume=null, issue=9, pageStart=64, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[18], rfOrder=28, authorNames=Zhao B, Sun WY, Wang SW, journalName=China Customs, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Zhao B, Sun WY, Wang SW. Caution is needed during the contagious season of hand, foot, and mouth disease[J]. 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注：图A为Prophet模型拟合湿度年趋势；图B为Prophet模型拟合湿度月趋势。

, figureFileSmall=BPSyRYPzSelPKSkYQPCHoQ==, figureFileBig=LVQVq7nsNOT5hJycdhZoNA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322590059308634843, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590046541173399, language=EN, label=Figure 3, caption=The results of the decomposition of the Prophet model for temperature, figureFileSmall=Z2y+K7XOt4VZ5m7Xxhq2hw==, figureFileBig=C+UK6OeF521MLWUvvy28Kg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322590059409298140, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590046541173399, language=CN, label=图3, caption=Prophet模型对温度的分解结果

注：图A为Prophet模型拟合温度年趋势；图B为Prophet模型拟合温度月趋势。

, figureFileSmall=Z2y+K7XOt4VZ5m7Xxhq2hw==, figureFileBig=C+UK6OeF521MLWUvvy28Kg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322590059619013341, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590046541173399, language=EN, label=Figure 4, caption=The results of the Prophet model for the decomposition of cases, figureFileSmall=fSczyeIpRYyVyLFxpPUU6A==, figureFileBig=+notSfrikVZKGDSilmWSPg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322590059694510814, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590046541173399, language=CN, label=图4, caption=Prophet模型对病例分解结果

注：图A为Prophet模型对病例分解年趋势；图B为Prophet模型对病例分解月趋势。

, figureFileSmall=fSczyeIpRYyVyLFxpPUU6A==, figureFileBig=+notSfrikVZKGDSilmWSPg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322590059782591199, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590046541173399, language=EN, label=Figure 5, caption=Relative risk of HFMD at different temperatures and lag periods, figureFileSmall=PtXWyi4WW0XzFFPvNA0Vng==, figureFileBig=OAlVQqU0+VEL4gca8PluIw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322590059841311456, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590046541173399, language=CN, label=图5, caption=不同温度、滞后期下对手足口病的RR

注：图A、C、E、G为固定温度下不同滞后期对手足口病的RR；图B、D、F、H为固定滞后期下不同温度对手足口病的RR。

, figureFileSmall=PtXWyi4WW0XzFFPvNA0Vng==, figureFileBig=OAlVQqU0+VEL4gca8PluIw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322590059912614625, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590046541173399, language=EN, label=Figure 6, caption=The relative risk of HFMD across varying humidity levels and lag periods, figureFileSmall=6yVVONCCVwqjb+IbUSfMYw==, figureFileBig=Sv8bpBk84JWBFoyJrJj0UQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1322590060118135522, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1322590046541173399, language=CN, label=图6, caption=不同湿度、滞后期下对手足口病的RR

注：图A、C、E、G为固定湿度下不同滞后期对手足口病的RR；图B、D、F、H为固定滞后期下不同湿度对手足口病的RR。

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基于分布式滞后非线性模型分析青岛市气象因素与手足口病发病间关联
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刘艳 1 , 张飞燕 2 , 段海平 1 , 赖一万 2 , 贾静 1 , 信雪苓 1
现代预防医学 | 环境与职业卫生 2025,52(1): 63-68
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现代预防医学 |环境与职业卫生 2025 , 52 (1) : 63 -68
基于分布式滞后非线性模型分析青岛市气象因素与手足口病发病间关联
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刘艳（1979—），女，硕士，副主任技师，研究方向：传染病监测及预防

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刘艳1, 张飞燕2, 段海平1 , 赖一万2, 贾静1, 信雪苓1
作者信息
  • 1.山东省青岛市疾病预防控制中心，山东 青岛 266071
  • 2.中国海洋大学信息科学与工程学部，山东 青岛 266100
通讯作者:
段海平，E-mail:
作者简介:

刘艳与张飞燕为共同第一作者

刘艳（1979—），女，硕士，副主任技师，研究方向：传染病监测及预防

张飞燕（1996—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：信息采集与物联网

Analysis of the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Qingdao based on a distributed lag nonlinear model
Yan LIU1, Fei-yan ZHANG2, Hai-ping DUAN1 , Yi-wan LAI2, Jing JIA1, Xue-ling XIN1
Affiliations
  • Qingdao Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Qingdao, Shandong 266071, China
出版时间: 2025-01-10 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202407087
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摘要
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目的

探究青岛市日均温度与相对湿度对手足口病发病的影响及其滞后效应，为青岛市防控策略提供数据支持。

方法

基于青岛市疾控中心提供的青岛市2010—2019年手足口病病例与中国国家气象科学数据中心测量的气象数据，首先利用Pearson相关性分析筛选关键气象因素，其次通过Prophet模型分析手足口病发病和气象因素的周期性与趋势，最后采用分布式滞后非线性模型量化滞后效应。

结果

研究发现，当青岛市日均气温在23～30℃范围内，手足口病发病的相对风险（RR）显著上升，日均气温到达30℃时RR达到峰值约2.2。当相对湿度在70%～90%区间时，RR明显上升，相对湿度接近90%，RR达到峰值约2.5。此外，日均气温与相对湿度对手足口病发病的影响具有滞后性，通常滞后期约为7 d左右。日均温度高于17℃时，滞后效应导致的手足口病传播风险逐渐增大；相对湿度超过70%后，滞后期约为7 d，手足口病的传播风险显著增强。

结论

青岛市气温接近23℃或湿度接近70%时，将在一周后显著影响手足口病的发病。因此，建议青岛市相关部门在这些气象条件出现时，提前采取防控措施，以降低手足口病的传播风险。

手足口病  /  温度  /  湿度  /  滞后期  /  疾病预防
Objective

To investigate the effects of daily average temperature and relative humidity on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in Qingdao, as well as their lagged effects, providing data support for prevention and control strategies in the city.

Methods

Utilizing HFMD case data from 2010 to 2019 provided by the Qingdao Center for Disease Control and Prevention and meteorological data measured by the China National Meteorological Science Data Center, we first employed Pearson correlation analysis to identify key meteorological factors. Subsequently, the Prophet model was used to analyze the periodicity and trends of HFMD incidence in relation to meteorological factors. Finally, a distributed lag nonlinear model was applied to quantify the lagged effects.

Results

The study found that when the daily average temperature in Qingdao ranged from 23°C to 30°C, the relative risk (RR) of HFMD significantly increased, peaking at approximately 2.2 when the temperature reached 30°C. Similarly, when relative humidity was between 70% and 90%, the RR increased notably, peaking at around 2.5 as humidity approached 90%. Additionally, the effects of daily average temperature and relative humidity on HFMD incidence exhibited lagged characteristics, typically with a lag period of about 7 days. When the daily average temperature exceeded 17°C, the risk of HFMD transmission due to lagged effects gradually increased; likewise, when relative humidity surpassed 70%, the lag period was approximately 7 days, resulting in a significant enhancement of transmission risk.

Conclusion

The findings indicate that when the temperature in Qingdao approaches 23°C or humidity nears 70%, there will be a significant impact on HFMD incidence one week later. Therefore, it is recommended that relevant departments in Qingdao implement preventive measures in advance during these meteorological conditions to reduce the risk of HFMD transmission.

Hand, foot, and mouth disease  /  Temperature  /  Humidity  /  Lag period  /  Disease prevention
刘艳, 张飞燕, 段海平, 赖一万, 贾静, 信雪苓. 基于分布式滞后非线性模型分析青岛市气象因素与手足口病发病间关联. 现代预防医学, 2025 , 52 (1) : 63 -68 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202407087
Yan LIU, Fei-yan ZHANG, Hai-ping DUAN, Yi-wan LAI, Jing JIA, Xue-ling XIN. Analysis of the relationship between meteorological factors and the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Qingdao based on a distributed lag nonlinear model[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2025 , 52 (1) : 63 -68 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202407087
正文
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手足口病是一种由特定肠道病毒引发的传染性疾病，主要表现为口腔溃疡和手足疱疹，全球范围内广泛流行。自1981年中国发现首例病例以来，该疾病逐渐受到重视，并于2008年被列为法定丙类传染病[1]。手足口病主要由特定柯萨奇病毒和肠道病毒引起[2]，在夏秋季多发，主要影响婴幼儿群体。由于其感染能力强、传播速度快，该疾病易引发大规模流行。因此，预测和防控手足口病尤为重要。既往研究表明，气象因素与手足口病的传播紧密相关[1-3]，适宜气象条件会促进病毒传播，恶劣条件则可能抑制[4]。然而，当前对青岛市手足口病与气象因素关联的研究多集中于两者之间的相关性，很少有研究阐明气象因素对手足口病发病的滞后影响，因此，本研究以2010— 2019年青岛市手足口病电子病历数据为基础，剖析关键气象因素与手足口病发病之间的周期性长期变化趋势，分析气象因素对手足口病发病的滞后影响。为青岛市手足口病的防控工作提供科学依据和有力支持。
1　资料与方法
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1.1　数据来源
研究对象为山东省青岛市，所用手足口病电子病历数据由青岛市疾控中心提供，时间跨度为2010年1月1日— 2019年12月31日。病例数据包括性别、年龄、发病时间等多项信息，由青岛市医院通过直报系统上报并汇总。数据已进行脱敏处理。本研究的气象数据来源于中国国家气象科学数据中心对青岛站点所检测到的相关数据。所获取的青岛市气象数据集时间范围为2010年1月1日—2019年12月31日，该数据集包括日平均气温（℃）、相对湿度（%）、平均气压（hpa）、平均风速（m/s）、降水量（mm）、平均日照（h）、露点温度(℃)等，本研究对上述气象因素求每日平均结果后进行处理。
1.2　研究方法
1.2.1　气象因素数据来源
本研究提取中国国家气象科学数据中心（National Meteorological Science Data Center）统计的2010— 2019年的青岛市气象数据，从中选取平均温度、相对湿度、平均风速、降水量、平均日照、平均气压、露点温度等七个气象因素进行统计分析并计算气象因素的均值、标准差、最小值和最大值。
1.2.2　气象因素与手足口病病例间的Pearson相关性分析
分析青岛市气象因素与手足口病病例之间的相关性，本研究采用皮尔逊相关系数，用于度量两个变量X和Y之间的线性相关程度。值域为-1～+1。
本研究在SPSS软件下进行气象因素与手足口病病例间的相关性分析，结合气象因素间的共线性[5]选择关键性气象因素进一步分析。具体的相关度[5]取值范围为：相关度[0.0,0.2)表示相关性极小，[0.2,0.4)表示弱相关，[0.4,0.6)表示中等程度相关，[0.6,0.8)表示强相关，[0.8,1.0]表示极强相关。
1.2.3　青岛市气象因素与手足口病病例的趋势性分析
为进一步验证和分析青岛市温度、湿度以及手足口病病例数据间的周期性与趋势性关系，本研究采用Prophet模型[6]。对相对湿度和日均温度、以及青岛市手足口病病例数据进行拟合、分解并进行趋势性分析。该模型用于在时间序列数据分析和预测。其数学表达式如下：
在公式（1）中，Y(t)为最终预测值，g(t)为趋势项，s(t)为周期项，h(t)为假期项，∈t为噪声项。本研究使用Python对Prophet模型建模，进行气象因素趋势性分析，节假日与气象因素无任何关系[7]，因此本研究只关注g(t)和h(t)部分。
1.2.4　分布式滞后非线性模型（distributed lag non-linear model，DLNM）分析青岛市不同温度、滞后期下手足口病的相对风险（RR）
DLNM是以交叉基为核心，暴露—反应与滞后效应分别选取相应的基函数[8]，本研究参考已有研究，从专业角度确定纳入模型的混杂变量，构建模型，评估气象因素对青岛市手足口病传播的滞后影响，公式如下：
在公式（2）中，E(Yt)指t天内手足口病的发病人数，a(tem, log)表示日均温度的滞后期，b(hum, log)表示相对湿度的滞后期，ε为公式的常数，ns( )的参数time为时间序列的变量，用来定义时间。df则为自由度设置为7/year[9]，使用ns( )函数可以对混杂数据进行平滑处理，holiday为节假日时间。本研究利用残差方阵确定模型参数。已有研究表明，往往偏差越小的值，模型的效果会更好[10]。该模型采用RR作为统计指标，对比暴露组与对照组的危险度差异[11]，如果RR的值越大，表明暴露组危险度的影响越大。
本研究运用DLNM方法探究了青岛市手足口病RR与日均温度及相对湿度的关联。以17℃的日均温度和65%的相对湿度为基准，评估了不同温度和湿度水平在0、7和14 d滞后期对手足口病发病的潜在影响。考虑到手足口病存在2～10 d的隐性潜伏期[12]，且气象因素在21 d后影响可忽略，分析时段设定为最长21 d。具体分析了5℃、15℃、25℃、30℃温度和40%、50%、70%、80%湿度，在滞后0、1、2和3周（即0、7、14和21 d）的影响，旨在揭示青岛市手足口病发病与气象因素的即时及滞后关系。
2　结果
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2.1　气象因素与手足口病病例间的Person相关性分析结果
图1显示了气象因素与手足口病病例数量的相关性。其中，病例数量与露点温度、气温和湿度的正相关性较高，分别为0.77、0.72和0.5，与气压负相关性较高，为-0.7。考虑到气象因素间的共线性，即露点温度是气温和湿度的共同影响结果，以及气压与气温之间的负相关性；同时其他因素与病例数相关性不高，因此忽略，本文选择了气温、湿度作为关键气象因素进行分析。
2.2　青岛市气象因素与手足口病病例趋势性分析结果
为了反映日均温度和相对湿度与手足口病病例数据间的规律性和趋势性，本文对上述因素进行分解，Prophet模型提供对年份、月份、星期的分解功能，但由于气象因素不受星期影响，本文只对月份和年份进行分解和分析，图2和3为Prophet模型分别对湿度和气温分解的结果图。
由图2和3可知，在月份变化上青岛市的气象数据显示出明显的季节性变化，青岛市湿度在八月达到高峰，四月则为低谷。气温同样在八月达到高峰。特别值得注意的是，八月份既是雨季，也是温度和湿度的高峰期，此时手足口病的病例也相对较多。这一趋势与青岛市手足口病历史病例数据相吻合，表明温度和湿度是影响疾病传播的重要因素。
图4展示了Prophet模型对病例数据的趋势分解，与图2和3比较，年平均温度和湿度的趋势与年病例数关联性不强。然而，在月份层面，病例数呈现明显的抛物线趋势，与青岛市的温度和湿度高峰（特别是八月）相吻合[13]，尽管这种关系并非完全同步。
2.3　DLNM分析青岛市不同温度、滞后期下手足口病的RR结果
图5分析显示，青岛市手足口病风险受温度和滞后期共同影响。滞后期0 d时，日均温度超17℃即增风险，且随温度升高风险加大。滞后期1周，20℃以上增风险；2周和3周时，高温影响减弱，RR<1。具体地，5℃时5 d后无影响，15℃时10 d后无影响，25℃时影响集中在1周内，30℃时影响持续10 d。
综上，温度对手足口病风险的影响随滞后期不同而异，峰值多出现在5 d内，且随温度升高而增强。极高温度（如30℃）初期增风险，但10 d后显著降低；适中温度（如23℃）影响集中在7 d内；较低温度（如5℃、15℃）长期影响微弱。
观察图6发现，相对湿度40%～50%时，手足口病感染风险第3 d最高；70%时初期无影响，但7 d后影响渐增；90%时影响较高，第7 d达峰值。总之，相对湿度当天无影响，但随时间推移，湿度越高，未来一两周患病风险越大。滞后期0 d无影响，风险峰值5 d内出现；滞后期7～21 d，70%以上湿度有影响，且随湿度增加而威胁增大。
3　讨论
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本研究通过实验分析出，日均温度和相对湿度呈季节性，且对手足口病患病有明显影响，通过Prophet模型分析其与手足口病病例的趋势性，结果均呈现明显的抛物线趋势且有强关联性。与国内相关研究一致[13]，接着用分布式滞后模型分析不同温度、滞后期下对手足口病的RR。结果表明，青岛市平均温度和相对湿度对手足口病发病风险的影响峰值都出现在5 d内，高温（如30℃）初期10 d内增加手足口病风险，但长期影响减弱；适中温度（如23℃）下风险短期（7 d内）显著，随后减弱；低温（5℃～15℃）长期对手足口病风险影响微乎其微，而滞后期7、14和21 d时，70%湿度对手足口病有影响，且会随着湿度增大导致威胁度增大。本研究结果将为青岛市有关部门从气象因素上防御手足口病提供科学依据。
从手足口病的病原学角度来分析和解释以预防手足口病传播。传统上，肠道病毒71（EV71）和柯萨奇病毒A16（CoxA16）被认为是引起手足口病的两大主要病原体，近年来我国手足口病的优势病原体已从传统的EV71和CoxA16转变为CoxA6和CoxA10[14]，该病毒均属于小核糖核酸病毒科的肠道病毒属。有研究显示该手足口病病毒病毒易于重组，具有传染性强、传播途径复杂、流行强度大、传播速度快、短时间内即可造成大爆发的特点[15]。因此适宜的温度和湿度对手足口病中的肠道病毒提供了理想的生存条件，肠道病毒在空气中或依附在物品的肠道病毒存活时间的概率可能性会增加；从易感人群和感染者的角度来分析，适宜的温度和湿度，有利于感染者增加户外活动的可能，从而增加病毒的扩散，易感人群在出行时，也增加他们接触依附有病毒物品和接触空气中肠道病毒的可能。因此做好合理隔离措施可以有效降低手足口病传播风险。有关研究显示，由于受到疫情影响，2017—2022年上海浦东新区手足口病聚集性疫情呈现波动趋势[16]，不同年份事件数差别较大。流行季节为夏季和秋季，优势毒株为CoxA6与青岛市类似。新型冠状病毒感染防控期间的各项措施显著降低了手足口病聚集性疫情的发生。类似的研究还有2013—2022年青海省西宁市手足口病季节性特征分析，疫情期间西宁市的托幼机构、学校等学生在此期间聚集活动减少，降低了传播风险和患病的可能，所以报告病例数远低于往年的报告病例数[17]。
既往的研究表明，手足口病的爆发和传播不仅和气象因素有关系，还和人口密度、经济水平有一定的关系，人口密度大有利于手足口病的传播，良好的经济条件决定了当地的医疗水平，能够更早发现手足口病聚集爆发的征兆，并能及时在婴幼儿较多的场所及时作出预防措施，阻碍和切断手足口病病毒的传播[18]。由于人口密度、经济水平的表现形式难以统计和分析，可将上述的因素归咎于作用到气象因素中。因此，本研究的研究对青岛市的手足口病防控起到重要作用，虽然仅仅靠温度和湿度不能对手足口病流行病学进行完全解释，但可以通过模型计算该地区手足口病病毒流行风险较大时间时平均温度和相对湿度的数值。并依据本文的研究结果，有关部门可以结合气象因素和手足口病病毒传播特点提前做出相应对策。比如在婴幼儿较多的场所下及时进行酒精消毒、通风或戴口罩等政策来抑制手足口病病毒的传播。另外，幼儿园、托儿所应及时督促儿童和让儿童家长保持良好的卫生习惯也可以在源头抑制手足口病病毒的传播。

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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202407087
  • 接收时间：2024-07-08
  • 首发时间：2026-10-29
  • 出版时间：2025-01-10
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  • 收稿日期：2024-07-08
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    1.山东省青岛市疾病预防控制中心，山东 青岛 266071
    2.中国海洋大学信息科学与工程学部，山东 青岛 266100

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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
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