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Article(id=1311350567750951915, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1311350363295417204, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202603367, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1774281600000, receivedDateStr=2026-03-24, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1790579939066, onlineDateStr=2026-09-28, pubDate=1787587200000, pubDateStr=2026-08-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1790579939066, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-09-28, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1790579939066, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1790579939066, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1311350363295417204, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2026', volume='53', issue='16', pageStart='2881', pageEnd='3072', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1787587200000', pubDateStr='2026-08-25', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1790579890321, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1790584112451, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1311368072267653663, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1311350363295417204, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1311368072267653664, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1311350363295417204, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=2995, endPage=3002, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1311350567931306988, articleId=1311350567750951915, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=A quantitative study of China’s public health emergency response plans based on text similarity and PMC index, columnId=1228016567846367388, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Health Policy and Management, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To evaluate the textual quality of China’s provincial public health emergency response plans from a central-local comparative perspective, to analyze the differences in plan quality across regions, and to provide empirical evidence for plan revision.

Methods

An evaluation framework integrating feature words, text similarity, and the PMC index was constructed to assess the textual quality of the national and provincial public health emergency response plans.

Results

A total of 28 plans were included. The high-frequency feature words reflected the main structural framework of the plans, with terms such as “Party Committee”, “Command Headquarters”, and “Joint Prevention and Control” appearing frequently. With the national plan as the benchmark, the similarity of provincial plans was classified into high, medium, and low levels. The overall PMC index of the plans was 5.99, with scores ranging from 2.56 to 8.35. The results of text similarity and the PMC index were mutually validated.

Conclusion

China’s concept for compiling health emergency plans has been upgraded. Plan contents differ in their emphasis on completeness versus local characteristics. Text similarity reflects the balance between “normativity” and “autonomy” in provincial plans, which extends the understanding of inter-governmental differences in plan textual quality and offers a new perspective for understanding such differences. Provincial plans should remain consistent with the national framework while incorporating localized interpretations based on local conditions, so as to effectively guide regional health emergency practices.

, authors=Dan FENG1, Zi-yan ZHANG2, Meng-dan DING1, Xiao-xia LIU1, Cun-xi ZHAO1, authorsList=Dan FENG, Zi-yan ZHANG, Meng-dan DING, Xiao-xia LIU, Cun-xi ZHAO, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=Cun-xi ZHAO, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1311350571160921085, articleId=1311350567750951915, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=CN, title=融合文本相似度与PMC指数的我国突发公共卫生事件应急预案文本量化研究, columnId=1228016568014139551, journalTitle=现代预防医学, columnName=卫生政策与管理, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的

评价我国省级突发公共卫生事件应急预案文本质量，立足央地比较视角，分析各地预案文本质量差异，为预案修订提供实证依据。

方法

融合特征词、文本相似度、PMC指数，构建评价指标体系，评价国家及各省突发公共卫生事件应急预案文本质量。

结果

共纳入28份预案，高频特征词反映了预案主体架构，党委、指挥部、联防联控等词出现频次较多；以国家预案为基准，相似度分高、中、低三档；预案整体PMC指数为5.99，得分在2.56~8.35之间；相似度与PMC指数结果相互验证。

结论

我国卫生应急预案编制理念升级；预案内容在完备性与本土特色上各有侧重；相似度表征了省级预案“规范性”与“自主性”平衡程度，延伸了预案文本质量的府际差异，为理解省级预案文本质量差异提供了新视角。省级预案应与国家预案框架保持一致，结合地方实际进行本土化诠释，从而有效指导本区域卫生应急实践。

, authors=冯丹1, 张自严2, 丁梦丹1, 刘潇夏1, 赵存喜1, authorsList=冯丹, 张自严, 丁梦丹, 刘潇夏, 赵存喜, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=赵存喜, authorNote=

冯丹（2002—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：卫生政策与应急管理

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赵存喜，E-mail：
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冯丹（2002—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：卫生政策与应急管理

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Beijing: Party School of the Central Committee of CPC (National Academy of Administration), 2025.(In Chinese), articleTitle=Research on community emergency response capacity of China’s mega cities from an ecological perspective-a case study of large-scale infectious disease scenarios, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1311350580853956694, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311350567750951915, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2021, volume=43, issue=1, pageStart=64, pageEnd=79, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[19], rfOrder=32, authorNames=郭雪松, 赵慧增, journalName=暨南学报（哲学社会科学版）, refType=null, unstructuredReference=郭雪松，赵慧增．突发公共卫生事件应急预案的组织间网络结构研究［J］．暨南学报（哲学社会科学版），2021，43(1)：64-79．, articleTitle=突发公共卫生事件应急预案的组织间网络结构研究, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1311350580988174423, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311350567750951915, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2021, volume=43, issue=1, pageStart=64, pageEnd=79, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[19], rfOrder=33, authorNames=Guo XS, Zhao HZ, journalName=Jinan Journal (Philosophy & Social Science Edition), refType=null, unstructuredReference=Guo XS, Zhao HZ. 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Jinan Journal (Philosophy & Social Science Edition), 2021, 43(1): 64-79.(In Chinese), articleTitle=Interorganizational network structure of public health emergency plan, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1311350576424771637, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311350567750951915, awardId=2024AH040320, language=CN, fundingSource=安徽省高等学校科学研究重大项目(2024AH040320), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1311350571379024894, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311350567750951915, xref=1., ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1311350571383219199, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311350567750951915, companyId=1311350571379024894, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui 231200, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1311350571391607808, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311350567750951915, companyId=1311350571379024894, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1.安徽医科大学公共卫生学院，安徽 合肥 231200)]), AuthorCompany(id=1311350571483881472, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311350567750951915, xref=2., ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1311350571492270081, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311350567750951915, companyId=1311350571483881472, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2.中南大学公共管理学院)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1311350573509730341, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311350567750951915, language=EN, label=Fig.1, caption=Diagram of the research process design, figureFileSmall=ii0r/YY23mXbPj5wnbiAKQ==, figureFileBig=0GWDStPu6wEKLTGUg/uGGQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311350573581033510, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311350567750951915, language=CN, label=图1, caption=研究流程设计图, figureFileSmall=ii0r/YY23mXbPj5wnbiAKQ==, figureFileBig=0GWDStPu6wEKLTGUg/uGGQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311350573769777191, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311350567750951915, language=EN, label=Fig.2, caption=High-frequency characteristic words of emergency response plans, figureFileSmall=CSGlMcW5Jy5d6A9+ADDXUg==, figureFileBig=WgIqw+GzUPfczwSHj10K2Q==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311350575388778536, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311350567750951915, language=CN, label=图2, caption=预案高频特征词

注：底图来源于国家基础地理信息中心，审图号为GS(2019)3333。

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注：为便于比较，预案中未涉及的部分相似度统一赋值为0。

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注：（A）整体（P1~P27）PMC曲面图；（B）各预案PMC曲面图。

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注：为高相似度；■为中相似度；▲为低相似度。

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Indicators of the evaluation system for public health emergency response plans

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
一级变量二级变量
X1总体要求X1:1指导思想；X1:2依法依规；X1:3适用范围；X1:4工作原则；X1:5事件分级
X2组织指挥体系X2:1领导指挥机构；X2:2日常管理机构；X2:3应急处理专业技术机构；X2:4区域协调机构；X2:5专家组
X3监测X3:1监测网络；X3:2监测评估
X4预警X4:1预警发布；X4:2预警分级；X4:3预警解除
X5信息报告X5:1报告主体；X5:2报告时限、程序；X5:3报告内容
X6应急处置X6:1先期处置；X6:2应急响应；X6:3基本应急处置措施；X6:4应急终止
X7善后处理X7:1调查总结；X7:2恢复重建；X7:3保险理赔；X7:4补偿抚恤；X7:5社会救助；X7:6责任奖惩
X8应急保障X8:1技术保障；X8:2队伍保障；X8:3物资保障；X8:4经费保障；X8:5治安保障；X8:6医疗保障；X8:7设施保障；X8:8通讯保障；X8:9信息保障；X8:10社会动员保障；X8:11制度、法律保障；X8:12科研、国际交流
X9预案管理X9:1预案体系；X9:2预案审批与衔接；X9:3预案演练；X9:4预案评估与修订
), ArticleFig(id=1311350576118587442, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311350567750951915, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

突发公共卫生事件应急预案评价指标体系

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
一级变量二级变量
X1总体要求X1:1指导思想；X1:2依法依规；X1:3适用范围；X1:4工作原则；X1:5事件分级
X2组织指挥体系X2:1领导指挥机构；X2:2日常管理机构；X2:3应急处理专业技术机构；X2:4区域协调机构；X2:5专家组
X3监测X3:1监测网络；X3:2监测评估
X4预警X4:1预警发布；X4:2预警分级；X4:3预警解除
X5信息报告X5:1报告主体；X5:2报告时限、程序；X5:3报告内容
X6应急处置X6:1先期处置；X6:2应急响应；X6:3基本应急处置措施；X6:4应急终止
X7善后处理X7:1调查总结；X7:2恢复重建；X7:3保险理赔；X7:4补偿抚恤；X7:5社会救助；X7:6责任奖惩
X8应急保障X8:1技术保障；X8:2队伍保障；X8:3物资保障；X8:4经费保障；X8:5治安保障；X8:6医疗保障；X8:7设施保障；X8:8通讯保障；X8:9信息保障；X8:10社会动员保障；X8:11制度、法律保障；X8:12科研、国际交流
X9预案管理X9:1预案体系；X9:2预案审批与衔接；X9:3预案演练；X9:4预案评估与修订
), ArticleFig(id=1311350576206667827, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311350567750951915, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

PMC index

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
编号评价维度PMC
X1X2X3X4X5X6X7X8X9
P00.800.800.500.670.330.750.500.850.505.70
P11.001.001.001.001.000.750.830.761.008.35
P20.800.801.001.000.670.750.670.770.757.20
P30.600.400.000.670.670.500.330.540.253.96
P40.801.001.000.671.001.000.670.460.507.09
P50.800.801.000.671.000.750.500.770.757.04
P60.601.000.500.000.330.500.330.230.253.75
P70.800.800.501.000.330.750.500.850.506.03
P80.801.001.001.000.670.750.830.920.757.72
P90.800.800.500.331.000.750.830.920.756.69
P100.800.800.500.330.330.750.500.850.505.36
P110.800.800.501.000.330.750.500.850.255.78
P120.800.801.000.331.000.500.500.770.506.20
P131.001.001.000.331.000.751.000.690.507.28
P141.000.801.001.001.001.001.000.920.508.22
P150.800.600.500.330.671.000.670.540.505.61
P160.800.800.500.330.330.750.500.770.255.04
P170.800.800.500.670.330.750.500.850.755.95
P180.800.800.500.671.000.750.500.850.756.61
P190.800.601.001.000.331.000.330.851.006.91
P200.800.801.000.330.670.750.500.460.756.06
P210.800.801.001.001.001.000.670.620.507.38
P220.600.800.500.670.670.501.000.770.506.00
P231.000.200.000.000.670.750.170.310.003.09
P240.800.600.500.670.330.500.170.150.253.97
P250.400.200.000.000.670.500.330.460.002.56
P260.800.800.500.331.000.750.670.690.506.04
P270.600.801.000.331.000.500.670.620.255.77
整体（P1~P27）0.790.760.670.580.700.730.580.670.515.99
), ArticleFig(id=1311350576294748212, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311350567750951915, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

PMC指数表

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
编号评价维度PMC
X1X2X3X4X5X6X7X8X9
P00.800.800.500.670.330.750.500.850.505.70
P11.001.001.001.001.000.750.830.761.008.35
P20.800.801.001.000.670.750.670.770.757.20
P30.600.400.000.670.670.500.330.540.253.96
P40.801.001.000.671.001.000.670.460.507.09
P50.800.801.000.671.000.750.500.770.757.04
P60.601.000.500.000.330.500.330.230.253.75
P70.800.800.501.000.330.750.500.850.506.03
P80.801.001.001.000.670.750.830.920.757.72
P90.800.800.500.331.000.750.830.920.756.69
P100.800.800.500.330.330.750.500.850.505.36
P110.800.800.501.000.330.750.500.850.255.78
P120.800.801.000.331.000.500.500.770.506.20
P131.001.001.000.331.000.751.000.690.507.28
P141.000.801.001.001.001.001.000.920.508.22
P150.800.600.500.330.671.000.670.540.505.61
P160.800.800.500.330.330.750.500.770.255.04
P170.800.800.500.670.330.750.500.850.755.95
P180.800.800.500.671.000.750.500.850.756.61
P190.800.601.001.000.331.000.330.851.006.91
P200.800.801.000.330.670.750.500.460.756.06
P210.800.801.001.001.001.000.670.620.507.38
P220.600.800.500.670.670.501.000.770.506.00
P231.000.200.000.000.670.750.170.310.003.09
P240.800.600.500.670.330.500.170.150.253.97
P250.400.200.000.000.670.500.330.460.002.56
P260.800.800.500.331.000.750.670.690.506.04
P270.600.801.000.331.000.500.670.620.255.77
整体（P1~P27）0.790.760.670.580.700.730.580.670.515.99
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融合文本相似度与PMC指数的我国突发公共卫生事件应急预案文本量化研究
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冯丹 1 , 张自严 2 , 丁梦丹 1 , 刘潇夏 1 , 赵存喜 1
现代预防医学 | 卫生政策与管理 2026,53(16): 2995-3002
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现代预防医学 |卫生政策与管理 2026 , 53 (16) : 2995 -3002
融合文本相似度与PMC指数的我国突发公共卫生事件应急预案文本量化研究
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冯丹1, 张自严2, 丁梦丹1, 刘潇夏1, 赵存喜1
作者信息
  • 1.安徽医科大学公共卫生学院，安徽 合肥 231200
  • 2.中南大学公共管理学院
通讯作者:
赵存喜，E-mail：
作者简介:

冯丹（2002—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：卫生政策与应急管理

A quantitative study of China’s public health emergency response plans based on text similarity and PMC index
Dan FENG1, Zi-yan ZHANG2, Meng-dan DING1, Xiao-xia LIU1, Cun-xi ZHAO1
Affiliations
  • School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, Anhui 231200, China
出版时间: 2026-08-25 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202603367
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摘要
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目的

评价我国省级突发公共卫生事件应急预案文本质量，立足央地比较视角，分析各地预案文本质量差异，为预案修订提供实证依据。

方法

融合特征词、文本相似度、PMC指数，构建评价指标体系，评价国家及各省突发公共卫生事件应急预案文本质量。

结果

共纳入28份预案，高频特征词反映了预案主体架构，党委、指挥部、联防联控等词出现频次较多；以国家预案为基准，相似度分高、中、低三档；预案整体PMC指数为5.99，得分在2.56~8.35之间；相似度与PMC指数结果相互验证。

结论

我国卫生应急预案编制理念升级；预案内容在完备性与本土特色上各有侧重；相似度表征了省级预案“规范性”与“自主性”平衡程度，延伸了预案文本质量的府际差异，为理解省级预案文本质量差异提供了新视角。省级预案应与国家预案框架保持一致，结合地方实际进行本土化诠释，从而有效指导本区域卫生应急实践。

突发公共卫生事件  /  应急预案  /  文本质量  /  文本相似度  /  PMC指数
Objective

To evaluate the textual quality of China’s provincial public health emergency response plans from a central-local comparative perspective, to analyze the differences in plan quality across regions, and to provide empirical evidence for plan revision.

Methods

An evaluation framework integrating feature words, text similarity, and the PMC index was constructed to assess the textual quality of the national and provincial public health emergency response plans.

Results

A total of 28 plans were included. The high-frequency feature words reflected the main structural framework of the plans, with terms such as “Party Committee”, “Command Headquarters”, and “Joint Prevention and Control” appearing frequently. With the national plan as the benchmark, the similarity of provincial plans was classified into high, medium, and low levels. The overall PMC index of the plans was 5.99, with scores ranging from 2.56 to 8.35. The results of text similarity and the PMC index were mutually validated.

Conclusion

China’s concept for compiling health emergency plans has been upgraded. Plan contents differ in their emphasis on completeness versus local characteristics. Text similarity reflects the balance between “normativity” and “autonomy” in provincial plans, which extends the understanding of inter-governmental differences in plan textual quality and offers a new perspective for understanding such differences. Provincial plans should remain consistent with the national framework while incorporating localized interpretations based on local conditions, so as to effectively guide regional health emergency practices.

Public health emergencies  /  Emergency response plans  /  Text quality  /  Text similarity  /  PMC index
冯丹, 张自严, 丁梦丹, 刘潇夏, 赵存喜. 融合文本相似度与PMC指数的我国突发公共卫生事件应急预案文本量化研究. 现代预防医学, 2026 , 53 (16) : 2995 -3002 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202603367
Dan FENG, Zi-yan ZHANG, Meng-dan DING, Xiao-xia LIU, Cun-xi ZHAO. A quantitative study of China’s public health emergency response plans based on text similarity and PMC index[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2026 , 53 (16) : 2995 -3002 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202603367
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1　引言
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突发公共卫生事件应急预案（以下简称预案）是对突发公共卫生事件的提前部署与应急准备，其被定义为“为预防和减少突发公共卫生事件的发生，控制、减轻和消除突发公共卫生事件对人民群众生命健康的危害，规范突发公共卫生事件应急处置工作而预先制定的工作方案”［1］。2003年“非典”期间颁布《突发公共卫生事件应急条例》，首次以法规形式明确“建立和健全卫生应急预案制度”［2］。2025年《中华人民共和国突发公共卫生事件应对法》提出：国家建立健全突发公共卫生事件应急预案体系，……，根据实际需要、情势变化等及时进行预案修订。新时代推动我国卫生应急预案建设与完善，既是基于风险防范的未雨绸缪，也是应对疫情挑战的实操要务，更是完善公共卫生法治体系、实现依法防控的核心要件。
省级预案既是对国家预案的衔接与落实，又是指导地方工作的顶层设计，发挥承上启下的关键作用，其文本质量更应受到关注［3］。省级预案需平衡统一性与创新性。过度强调统一性可能限制地方特色发挥，脱离区域发展实际。过度强调创新性则缺乏对国家预案的响应，影响预案体系建设。在卫生资源禀赋、公共卫生风险等存在显著区域差异的卫生应急领域［4］，科学测度省级预案文本质量并比较其差异，是亟待研究的议题。
关于文本质量评估，研究多采用构建评价指标体系的方法［5-7］，部分方法主观性强、计算复杂、可操作性不足。文本相似度作为一种客观量化工具，已广泛用于政策比较研究［8］。已有研究发现：突发事件总体预案的比较中，省级与国家预案相似度差异，可一定程度反映预案文本质量差异［9。同时，政策建模一致性（Policy Model Consistency，PMC）指数作为政策量化评估的常用方法，通过构建评价指标体系，具有一定客观性。然而，既有研究多采用单一方法，未能充分发挥二者优势。基于此，本研究立足央地比较视角，融合文本相似度与PMC指数，构建预案量化评价指标体系，开展预案文本质量评价，为我国预案的修订与优化提供实证依据。
2　资料与方法
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2.1　资料来源
以“突发公共卫生事件”“应急预案”为关键词，检索：①中央及各省人民政府与部门官网；②“北大法宝”“万方法律法规”“中国法律法规”等数据库；③省级政务平台依申请公开，确保数据的权威性、完整性。纳入：①官方渠道公开发行文件原文；②现行有效文件。排除：①政策解读、编制说明等非正式文本；②明确废止或失效文件。最终采集包括国家与27省预案共28份。
2.2　研究方法与过程
本文将国家与各省预案进行比较，通过特征词、相似度、PMC指数展开预案文本质量评价。研究流程见图1。
2.2.1　特征词分析
特征词通常指能够代表文本核心意义和主题的词汇。研究采用词频-逆文档频率(Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency，TF-IDF）对28份预案进行特征词提取。通过人工采集将预案录入自建语料库，使用jieba分词，基于哈工大停用词与自建停用词表，去除超短词和不完整的句子，将文本数据拆分为可供分析处理的初始格式。使用jieba.analyse模块计算词频，根据TF-IDF值降序排序，选取前100位高频词，生成词云。
2.2.2　相似度分析
文本相似度可用于量化央地预案文本的接近程度［11］。D.Lin从信息论角度阐明文本相似度与共性和差异的关系：相似度越高，共性越大，差异越小［12］。通过TF-IDF实现文本向量化，结合余弦相似度进行计算：
式中，a1m为国家预案文本向量，a2n为各省预案文本向量，similarity为相似度。
基于预案内容划分9大维度：X1总体要求、X2组织指挥体系、X3监测、X4预警、X5信息报告、X6应急处置、X7善后处理、X8应急保障、X9预案管理，综合相似度判定标准［13］，本文相似度分为三档：高相似度（相似度≥0.8），中相似度（0.5<相似度<0.8），低相似度（相似度≤0.5）。
2.2.3　基于PMC指数的文本质量评价
既往研究表明，省级预案文本质量评价主要涵盖两个方面：其一，作为政府法定规范性文件，预案应结构完备，契合国家框架，确保统一完整［9］；其二，预案需回应本区域卫生应急管理需求，进行本土化调整［14］。本文综合考虑省级预案完备性与本土化特征，参考国家预案框架，构建一级评价指标体系，并提炼湖北、北京等地预案特色，形成高频特征词，完善二级指标，建立包括9个一级变量、44个二级变量（否=0，是=1）的评价指标体系（见表1）。
计算预案PMC指数并绘制曲面图：
式中i表示一级变量，j表示二级变量，n表示二级变量个数，Xi表示一级变量取值，Xij表示二级变量取值。参照评分标准，将PMC指数划分为四个区间：8≤PMC≤9、6≤PMC<8、4≤PMC<6、0≤PMC<4［15］。
3　结果
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3.1　预案基本情况
词频结果如图2。各预案中，“监测”“预警”“应急”“终止”“保障”等特征词出现频率较高。P1、P2、P7、P8、P12、P14等预案时效性强，突出“指挥部办公室”“党委”“省委”“领导小组”等应急响应主体，强调“联防联控”“应急联动”“协同保障”“联合部署”等应急协同作用。
3.2　预案相似度
国家（P0）-各省（P1~P27）预案相似度见图3。相似度在0~0.963 8之间，P16、P17、P18各维度得分较高，P25各维度较低；X7善后处理与X9预案管理相似度较低。预案平均相似度如图4。高相似度预案包括P10、P11、P16、P17、P18，相似度≥0.8；中相似度预案包括P1、P2、P4、P5、P7、P8、P9、P12、P13、P14、P15、P19、P20、P21、P22、P26，0.5<相似度<0.8；低相似度预案包括P3、P6、P23、P24、P25、P27，相似度≤0.5。
3.3　基于PMC指数的文本质量评价
预案整体PMC指数得分5.99。第一类预案16项，6≤PMC≤9；第二类预案6项，4≤PMC<6；第三类预案5项，0≤PMC<4。得分最高为P1（8.35），其次是P14（8.22）；X9预案管理最低（0.51），其次是X7善后（0.58）和X4预警（0.58），见表2。整体（P1~P27）PMC曲面相对平缓，P1、P14 PMC曲面平整度高，见图5。
3.4　相似度与PMC指数交叉验证
预案相似度与PMC指数结果交叉验证。高相似度省份，对应4≤PMC<6评分区间；中相似度省份，对应6≤PMC≤9评分区间；低相似度省份，对应0≤PMC<4评分区间（图6）。相似度差异一定程度上反映了预案文本质量差异，可作为预案质量的辅助验证指标。
4　讨论与建议
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4.1　编制理念升级，协同联动导向突出
词频反映出重大公共卫生事件应对经验推动下，预案编制内容的完善，编制理念的升级趋势。“监测”“预警”“响应”“保障”相关词汇高频出现，印证了“预防-处置-保障”的完整链条，体现了突发公共卫生事件全生命周期管理理念。北京、天津、湖北等地现行预案中，“党委”“指挥部”“协调”“联防联控”等词汇增多，反映了新时代卫生应急处置中“党委领导、政府负责、跨区域协同联动”的预案发展趋势［16］，与新旧版国家突发事件总体预案比较研究结果一致［17］。后续预案编制应凸显党委的卫生应急管理全过程、全方位领导作用，强化联合指挥、协同部署的编制理念，确保在跨区域风险事件应急处置的高效协同。
4.2　相似度差异体现规范性与自主性平衡
P16、P17等高相似度组，体现出对国家预案框架的遵循，此类预案注重与中央预案的统一，规范化程度高［18］。P1、P8、P14等中相似度组，在承接国家预案框架的基础上，进行一定优化，显示出较强的本地化特征，更突出自主性。P24、P25等低相似度组，框架基本完整，但内容较为简约，预案规范性与自主性有待提升。相似度差异一定程度反映了各省预案编制中“规范性”与“自主性”的不同选择，体现了中央“统一性”与地方“特殊性”的权衡。
4.3　预案整体质量较高，文本内容各具特色
PMC结果显示，预案整体质量较高，预案的底线效应显著［18］。深入分析不同预案特征可知：
第一类预案得分较高，内容完备、本地特色突出。P1、P14在X1总体要求、X3监测、X4预警、X5信息报告等一级变量得分高于均值。P1（北京）强调“首都意识”，突出其维护政治安全与社会稳定的特殊职责；P14（湖北）细化应急处置流程，清晰规划“省-市-县”三级救治网络，充分体现了预案源于实践，服务实战的鲜明导向。P8（浙江）运用大数据、人工智能赋能应急保障；P7（上海）构建覆盖溯源、诊断、治疗的全链条防治科研体系；P26（宁夏）实施停工停业停课、群防群控等系列措施，同步部署打击哄抬物价、囤积居奇行动，实现刚性管控与民生托底有机统一。针对上述类型预案，建议构建省级卫生应急预案知识库，将数字赋能防控、全链条科研防治体系等纳入其中，各省预案修订时，可结合本地特征按需调用、按需组合，实现预案高效率优化。
第二类预案得分适中，框架完备，但差异化有限。其一级指标与国家预案高度一致，体现了对国家预案的承接与响应，而部分二级变量（如X3:2监测评估、X4:2预警分级、X4:3预警解除、X7:3保险理赔、X7:5社会救助、X8:5治安保障等）得分不高，本土化内容较少。未来可推行“国家框架+地方风险清单”补充机制，结合区域高频风险与本地实际进行完善。如P16、P17可明确预警标准，将风险监测纳入预案，发挥社会救助、保险理赔作用。P15可完善卫生应急队伍、治安维护及信息平台建设等保障措施。
第三类预案得分较低，基础要素完整，但完备性与本土特色均有待提升。这类预案颁布于我国预案体系建设初期，时间较早，因而整体风格简约，规定较为宏观。如P23、P25颁布于2010年前，X1总体要求、X2组织指挥体系、X5信息报告、X6应急处置等要素完整，但X3监测、X4预警、X7善后处理、X8应急保障方面内容有限。未来可对照国家预案框架制定“优化清单”，细化预警、监测、善后处理、应急保障等内容，进一步提升预案的完备性，同时将本土化特色融入预案文本编制中。
4.4　评估指标相互验证，相似度塑造文本质量差异
文本相似度衡量了央地预案内容一致性，反映省级预案“规范性”与“自主性”的平衡。我国实行“统一领导、分级负责”的应急管理体制，省级预案发挥着承接性与指导性双重功能，既须与国家预案框架保持一致，遵循统一的应急治理逻辑，又应结合省情补充调整、适配地方实际需求［4, 10］。各省预案编制过程中，在“规范性”与“自主性”间平衡，塑造了完备性与本土特色各有侧重的预案文本。交叉验证表明，相似度与PMC评价指标相互对应，相似度差异一定程度上反映了文本质量的差异。P24、P25等相似度偏低，预案规范性与自主性不足，其完备性与本土特色均有待提升。P16、P17等相似度高，更注重“规范性”，与国家预案高度一致，形成了内容完备但差异化不足的预案。P1、P8、P14等中相似度预案，实现了国家规范性与地方自主性的平衡，催生了兼具完备性与本土特色的预案。
从相似度视角出发，立足央地文本差异，剖析省级层面预案质量，在以往研究中亦有体现。郭雪松指出，各省省情不同且预案编制相对独立，各地对中央预案的遵循意愿与贯彻能力存在差异，直接造成预案文本质量的差异［19］。高光涵认为差异化属地场景与认知使省级预案在文本结构与内容上呈现显著府际差异，进而导致了文本质量的不同侧重［10］。一份高质量的预案需做到“骨架相似”但“血肉不同”：对上承袭国家预案框架，确保统一规范，对下结合地方实际进行诠释，指导区域实践。
5　研究局限性及展望
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研究存在以下局限性：首先，受限于政府信息公开程度，部分省份最新版预案为密件，不予公开，研究者虽经多渠道检索与信息公开申请，但仍有少数省份预案时效性不强，一定程度上影响研究结论的科学性。其次，研究对象为官方发布的静态文本，缺乏预案实践层面的数据采集和分析，难以完全衡量预案在真实情境中的实施效果。未来可持续关注预案更新情况，结合多案例比较、情景模拟与仿真评估等方法探究预案实践层面的执行效能。
基金
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  • 安徽省高等学校科学研究重大项目(2024AH040320)
文献
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2026年第53卷第16期
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202603367
  • 接收时间：2026-03-24
  • 首发时间：2026-09-28
  • 出版时间：2026-08-25
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  • 收稿日期：2026-03-24
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安徽省高等学校科学研究重大项目(2024AH040320)
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    1.安徽医科大学公共卫生学院，安徽 合肥 231200
    2.中南大学公共管理学院

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赵存喜，E-mail：
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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