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Article(id=1311349899480892346, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1311349802038821144, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202602087, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1770480000000, receivedDateStr=2026-02-08, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1790579779739, onlineDateStr=2026-09-28, pubDate=1783612800000, pubDateStr=2026-07-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1790579779739, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-09-28, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1790579779739, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1790579779739, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1311349802038821144, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2026', volume='53', issue='13', pageStart='2305', pageEnd='2496', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='1783612800000', pubDateStr='2026-07-10', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1790579756507, creator='13701087609', updateTime=1790588376143, updator='13701087609', preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, articleTotal=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1311385955492258162, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1311349802038821144, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1311385955496452467, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1311349802038821144, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null, downloadFileDto=null}, startPage=2474, endPage=2478, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1311349901083116475, articleId=1311349899480892346, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Trend analysis of detection rate of foodborne diseases in Shanxi Province from 2015 to 2024, columnId=1228016573156360233, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Disease Control and Prevention, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and temporal variation trends of active surveillance for foodborne diseases in Shanxi Province from 2015 to 2024, and to provide a scientific basis for formulating precise prevention and control strategies.

Methods

Active surveillance data from 2015 to 2024 were extracted from the Shanxi Provincial Foodborne Disease Pathogenic Factor and Etiological Food Traceability Platform. Joinpoint Regression Program 4.9.1.0 software was used to analyze the long-term temporal trend of foodborne disease detection rate. Annual percentage change(APC), average annual percentage change (AAPC), monthly percentage change (MPC), and average monthly percentage change(AMPC) were adopted to analyze the annual and monthly temporal trends of detection rate. Meanwhile, the distribution and trend characteristics of detection rate by gender and age group were analyzed, and stratified analysis was conducted according to pathogen type to describe the temporal trend distribution of pathogens.

Results

A total of 18 621 cases were monitored from 2015 to 2024, with 3 973 positive samples, and the total detection rate was 21.336%. The detection rate of foodborne diseases showed a significant upward trend from 2015 to 2024 (AAPC=9.8%, 95% CI: 3.9%-16.0%, P=0.004). The detection rate showed a significant downward trend with increasing age (AAPC=-10.0%, P<0.001). The detection rates in the 0-10 years and >70-80 years age groups showed a significant upward trend over time (AAPCs were 10.6% and 16.8%, respectively, all P<0.001). The monthly trend showed significant phased characteristics. The Joinpoint model identified two inflection points in May and September: the detection rate increased significantly from January to May (MPC=16.6%, P=0.040), decreased non-significantly from May to September (MPC=-4.4%, P=0.306), and decreased significantly from September to December (MPC=-22.5%, P=0.025). The average monthly trend of the whole stage was not statistically significant (AMPC=-2.9%, P=0.330). Among the pathogens, Salmonella and Norovirus showed a significant upward trend from 2015 to 2024, with AAPCs of 19.1%and 9.0%, respectively. Bacterial pathogens showed a significant upward trend from January to August and a significant downward trend from August to December. The detection rate of Norovirus showed a continuous and significant downward trend in monthly changes (MPC=-7.5%, P=0.013).

Conclusion

The detection rate of foodborne diseases in Shanxi Province showed a significant upward trend from 2015 to 2024, and there were differences in temporal trend characteristics among different genders and age groups. It is suggested to improve the monitoring system and formulate precise prevention and control measures for key populations, key places and different seasons to reduce the risk of foodborne diseases.

, authors=Shang-min WANG, San-tao WANG, Yi SHI, Xue-yuan LI, Yi-chun LI, authorsList=Shang-min WANG, San-tao WANG, Yi SHI, Xue-yuan LI, Yi-chun LI, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=null, correspAuthorsNote=null, copyrightStatement=null, copyrightOwner=null, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, pdfUrl=null, pdf=null, pdfFileSize=null, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=null, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=null, mapNumber=null, fund=null), CN=ArticleExt(id=1311349901888422848, articleId=1311349899480892346, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=CN, title=2015—2024年山西食源性疾病检出率趋势分析, columnId=1228016573844226129, journalTitle=现代预防医学, columnName=疾病预防控制, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
目的

分析 2015—2024 年山西省食源性疾病主动监测的流行病学特征及时间变化趋势，为制定精准防控策略提供科学依据。

方法

提取山西省食源性疾病致病因子与病因性食品溯源平台 2015—2024 年主动监测数据，运用Joinpoint Regression Program 4.9.1.0 软件分析食源性疾病检出率的长期时间趋势，采用年度变化百分比（annual percentage change，APC）、平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）、月度百分比变化（monthly percentage change，MPC）、平均月度百分比变化（average monthly percentage change，AMPC）分析检出率年度与月度时间趋势变化，同时分析性别、年龄别检出率的分布及趋势特征，并按病原体类型进行分层分析，描述病原体的时间趋势分布。

结果

2015—2024年共监测18 621例病例，阳性标本3 973份，总检出率为21.336%；2015—2024年食源性疾病检出率呈显著上升的趋势（AAPC=9.8%，95%CI：3.9%～16.0%，P=0.004）；检出率随年龄增长呈显著下降趋势（AAPC=-10.0%，P<0.001）；0～10岁组、>70～80岁组检出率随时间呈显著上升趋势（AAPC=10.6%、16.8%，均P<0.001）；月度趋势呈显著阶段性特征，Joinpoint模型识别出5月、9月两个拐点，1—5月检出率显著上升（MPC=16.6%，P=0.040），5—9月非显著下降（MPC=-4.4%，P=0.306），9—12月显著下降（MPC=-22.5%，P=0.025），全阶段月度平均趋势无统计学意义（AMPC=-2.9%，P=0.330）。病原体中沙门菌和诺如病毒在2015—2024年呈现显著上升趋势，AAPC分别为19.1%、9.0%；细菌类病原体呈现1—8月显著上升，8—12月显著下降趋势，诺如病毒检出率在月度变化中则呈持续显著下降趋势（MPC=-7.5%，P=0.013）。

结论

2015—2024 年山西省食源性疾病检出率呈显著上升趋势，不同性别、年龄组的时间趋势特征存在差异，建议完善监测体系，针对重点人群、重点场所、不同季节制定精准防控措施，降低食源性疾病发生风险。

, authors=王尚敏, 王三桃, 史一, 李雪原, 李怡淳, authorsList=王尚敏, 王三桃, 史一, 李雪原, 李怡淳, authorCompany=null, correspAuthors=null, authorNote=

王尚敏（1986—），女，硕士，副主任医师，研究方向：食源性疾病监测

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王尚敏（1986—），女，硕士，副主任医师，研究方向：食源性疾病监测

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王尚敏（1986—），女，硕士，副主任医师，研究方向：食源性疾病监测

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(In Chinese), articleTitle=Etiological characteristics of viral diarrhea in Guangzhou, 2017-2021, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1311349906145641451, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311349899480892346, awardId=2022147, language=CN, fundingSource=山西省卫生健康委科研课题(2022147), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1311349902123303873, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311349899480892346, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1311349902131692482, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311349899480892346, companyId=1311349902123303873, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Shanxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030032, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1311349902144275395, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311349899480892346, companyId=1311349902123303873, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=山西省疾病预防控制中心，山西 太原 030032)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1311349905445192675, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311349899480892346, language=EN, label=Figure 1, caption=Temporal trend of active surveillance for foodborne diseases in Shanxi Province, 2015—2024, figureFileSmall=GEMQ4MiVjwALbNUsS6TXtg==, figureFileBig=sfOXUw7v50IJlIgyQd0EXA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311349905512301540, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311349899480892346, language=CN, label=图1, caption=山西省食源性疾病主动监测2015—2024年时间趋势图, figureFileSmall=GEMQ4MiVjwALbNUsS6TXtg==, figureFileBig=sfOXUw7v50IJlIgyQd0EXA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311349905713628133, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311349899480892346, language=EN, label=Figure 2, caption=Temporal trend of detection rates by pathogen in active surveillance for foodborne diseases in Shanxi Province, 2015—2024, figureFileSmall=1/D3P04hSfjzk2s/KT4D5Q==, figureFileBig=TgXbtIr00WXr3fn8a0zXAA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311349905776542694, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311349899480892346, language=CN, label=图2, caption=山西省食源性疾病主动监测各病原体检出率2015—2024年时间趋势图, figureFileSmall=1/D3P04hSfjzk2s/KT4D5Q==, figureFileBig=TgXbtIr00WXr3fn8a0zXAA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1311349905847845863, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311349899480892346, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Temporal trend of monthly detection rates in active surveillance for foodborne diseases in Shanxi Province

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
时间段（月）AMPCMPC
率（%，95%CI）t值P值率（%，95%CI）t值P值
1—5-2.9（-8.6～3.1）-1.0000.33016.6（1.2～34.4）3.0090.040
5—9- 4.4（-14.1～6.4）-1.1740.306
9—12-22.5（-36.7～-5.0）-3.4780.025
), ArticleFig(id=1311349905910760424, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311349899480892346, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

山西省食源性疾病主动监测月度检出率时间趋势表

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
时间段（月）AMPCMPC
率（%，95%CI）t值P值率（%，95%CI）t值P值
1—5-2.9（-8.6～3.1）-1.0000.33016.6（1.2～34.4）3.0090.040
5—9- 4.4（-14.1～6.4）-1.1740.306
9—12-22.5（-36.7～-5.0）-3.4780.025
), ArticleFig(id=1311349905990452201, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311349899480892346, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Temporal trend of monthly pathogen detection rates in active surveillance for foodborne diseases in Shanxi Province

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
病原体时间段（月）AMPCMPC
率（%，95%CI）t值P值率（%，95%CI）t值P值
细菌类1—8-2.3（-9.1～5.0）-0.6000.52621.1（12.0～31.0）5.7590.001
8—12- 32.9（-44.9～-18.4）-4.8100.002
病毒类1—12-7.5（-12.6～-2.0）-3.0000.013-7.5（-12.6～-2.0）-3.0000.013
), ArticleFig(id=1311349906065949674, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1311349899480892346, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

山西省食源性疾病主动监测病原体月度检出率时间趋势表

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
病原体时间段（月）AMPCMPC
率（%，95%CI）t值P值率（%，95%CI）t值P值
细菌类1—8-2.3（-9.1～5.0）-0.6000.52621.1（12.0～31.0）5.7590.001
8—12- 32.9（-44.9～-18.4）-4.8100.002
病毒类1—12-7.5（-12.6～-2.0）-3.0000.013-7.5（-12.6～-2.0）-3.0000.013
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2015—2024年山西食源性疾病检出率趋势分析
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王尚敏 , 王三桃 , 史一 , 李雪原 , 李怡淳
现代预防医学 | 疾病预防控制 2026,53(13): 2474-2478
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现代预防医学 |疾病预防控制 2026 , 53 (13) : 2474 -2478
2015—2024年山西食源性疾病检出率趋势分析
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王尚敏, 王三桃, 史一, 李雪原, 李怡淳
作者信息
  • 山西省疾病预防控制中心，山西 太原 030032
作者简介:

王尚敏（1986—），女，硕士，副主任医师，研究方向：食源性疾病监测

Trend analysis of detection rate of foodborne diseases in Shanxi Province from 2015 to 2024
Shang-min WANG, San-tao WANG, Yi SHI, Xue-yuan LI, Yi-chun LI
Affiliations
  • Shanxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030032, China
出版时间: 2026-07-10 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202602087
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摘要
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目的

分析 2015—2024 年山西省食源性疾病主动监测的流行病学特征及时间变化趋势，为制定精准防控策略提供科学依据。

方法

提取山西省食源性疾病致病因子与病因性食品溯源平台 2015—2024 年主动监测数据，运用Joinpoint Regression Program 4.9.1.0 软件分析食源性疾病检出率的长期时间趋势，采用年度变化百分比（annual percentage change，APC）、平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）、月度百分比变化（monthly percentage change，MPC）、平均月度百分比变化（average monthly percentage change，AMPC）分析检出率年度与月度时间趋势变化，同时分析性别、年龄别检出率的分布及趋势特征，并按病原体类型进行分层分析，描述病原体的时间趋势分布。

结果

2015—2024年共监测18 621例病例，阳性标本3 973份，总检出率为21.336%；2015—2024年食源性疾病检出率呈显著上升的趋势（AAPC=9.8%，95%CI：3.9%～16.0%，P=0.004）；检出率随年龄增长呈显著下降趋势（AAPC=-10.0%，P<0.001）；0～10岁组、>70～80岁组检出率随时间呈显著上升趋势（AAPC=10.6%、16.8%，均P<0.001）；月度趋势呈显著阶段性特征，Joinpoint模型识别出5月、9月两个拐点，1—5月检出率显著上升（MPC=16.6%，P=0.040），5—9月非显著下降（MPC=-4.4%，P=0.306），9—12月显著下降（MPC=-22.5%，P=0.025），全阶段月度平均趋势无统计学意义（AMPC=-2.9%，P=0.330）。病原体中沙门菌和诺如病毒在2015—2024年呈现显著上升趋势，AAPC分别为19.1%、9.0%；细菌类病原体呈现1—8月显著上升，8—12月显著下降趋势，诺如病毒检出率在月度变化中则呈持续显著下降趋势（MPC=-7.5%，P=0.013）。

结论

2015—2024 年山西省食源性疾病检出率呈显著上升趋势，不同性别、年龄组的时间趋势特征存在差异，建议完善监测体系，针对重点人群、重点场所、不同季节制定精准防控措施，降低食源性疾病发生风险。

食源性疾病  /  时间趋势  /  Joinpoint 回归模型
Objective

To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and temporal variation trends of active surveillance for foodborne diseases in Shanxi Province from 2015 to 2024, and to provide a scientific basis for formulating precise prevention and control strategies.

Methods

Active surveillance data from 2015 to 2024 were extracted from the Shanxi Provincial Foodborne Disease Pathogenic Factor and Etiological Food Traceability Platform. Joinpoint Regression Program 4.9.1.0 software was used to analyze the long-term temporal trend of foodborne disease detection rate. Annual percentage change(APC), average annual percentage change (AAPC), monthly percentage change (MPC), and average monthly percentage change(AMPC) were adopted to analyze the annual and monthly temporal trends of detection rate. Meanwhile, the distribution and trend characteristics of detection rate by gender and age group were analyzed, and stratified analysis was conducted according to pathogen type to describe the temporal trend distribution of pathogens.

Results

A total of 18 621 cases were monitored from 2015 to 2024, with 3 973 positive samples, and the total detection rate was 21.336%. The detection rate of foodborne diseases showed a significant upward trend from 2015 to 2024 (AAPC=9.8%, 95% CI: 3.9%-16.0%, P=0.004). The detection rate showed a significant downward trend with increasing age (AAPC=-10.0%, P<0.001). The detection rates in the 0-10 years and >70-80 years age groups showed a significant upward trend over time (AAPCs were 10.6% and 16.8%, respectively, all P<0.001). The monthly trend showed significant phased characteristics. The Joinpoint model identified two inflection points in May and September: the detection rate increased significantly from January to May (MPC=16.6%, P=0.040), decreased non-significantly from May to September (MPC=-4.4%, P=0.306), and decreased significantly from September to December (MPC=-22.5%, P=0.025). The average monthly trend of the whole stage was not statistically significant (AMPC=-2.9%, P=0.330). Among the pathogens, Salmonella and Norovirus showed a significant upward trend from 2015 to 2024, with AAPCs of 19.1%and 9.0%, respectively. Bacterial pathogens showed a significant upward trend from January to August and a significant downward trend from August to December. The detection rate of Norovirus showed a continuous and significant downward trend in monthly changes (MPC=-7.5%, P=0.013).

Conclusion

The detection rate of foodborne diseases in Shanxi Province showed a significant upward trend from 2015 to 2024, and there were differences in temporal trend characteristics among different genders and age groups. It is suggested to improve the monitoring system and formulate precise prevention and control measures for key populations, key places and different seasons to reduce the risk of foodborne diseases.

Foodborne diseases  /  Temporal trend  /  Joinpoint regression model
王尚敏, 王三桃, 史一, 李雪原, 李怡淳. 2015—2024年山西食源性疾病检出率趋势分析. 现代预防医学, 2026 , 53 (13) : 2474 -2478 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202602087
Shang-min WANG, San-tao WANG, Yi SHI, Xue-yuan LI, Yi-chun LI. Trend analysis of detection rate of foodborne diseases in Shanxi Province from 2015 to 2024[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2026 , 53 (13) : 2474 -2478 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202602087
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食源性疾病是当前世界范围内最为突出的公共卫生问题之一[1]，不仅对人群身体健康构成严重威胁，还带来严重的社会经济负担[2]。世界卫生组织公布2015年数据，全球每年有多达6亿人因食用受到污染的食品而生病，造成42万人死亡[3]。山西省自 2012 年起启动食源性疾病主动监测工作，检出率随时间推移呈现动态变化特征。本研究依托2015—2024 年山西省食源性疾病主动监测的连续数据开展时间序列分析，了解其流行病学特征，为制定、调整防控措施提供技术依据。
1　资料与方法
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1.1　资料来源
资料源于山西省食源性疾病致病因子与病因性食品溯源平台中上报的2015—2024年食源性疾病主动监测数据，内容包括人群基本信息，沙门菌、志贺菌、副溶血性弧菌、致泻大肠埃希菌、诺如病毒的检出情况。
1.2　监测方法
哨点医院选择符合定义的病例，采集其人口学信息、症状与体征、临床诊断、可疑饮食暴露史等信息及粪便标本，采用国家《食源性疾病监测工作手册》中规定的方法，开展沙门菌、志贺菌、副溶血性弧菌、致泻大肠埃希菌、诺如病毒检测，各地市疾控对阳性菌（毒）株进行复核。
1.3　统计分析
本研究采用Excel 2013及SPSS 22.0软件完成数据整理与基础统计，Joinpoint Regression Program 4.9.1.0软件进行时间趋势分析。模型设定最大连接点3个，通过4 499次蒙特卡罗置换检验确定最优拐点并验证其显著性，检验水准α=0.05。
年度趋势分析以年份为自变量、年度检出率为因变量，采用年度变化百分比（annual percentage change, APC）反映各趋势段年均变化幅度，平均年度变化率（average annual percentage change, AAPC）反映2015—2024年整体年度趋势。
月度趋势分析先将2015—2024年数据按1—12月计算10年月均检出率，以月份为自变量拟合趋势；采用月度变化百分比（monthly percentage change,MPC）反映各阶段月均变化幅度，平均月度变化率（average monthly percentage change, AMPC）反映全年月度整体趋势。
AAPC、APC、AMPC、MPC及其95%CI判断趋势方向与强度：指标>0为上升趋势，<0为下降趋势；95%CI不包含0则趋势具有统计学显著性。
分层分析按10岁为一组划分10个年龄组（0～10岁、>10～20岁、>20～30岁、>30～40岁、>40～50岁、>50～60岁、>60～70岁、>70～80岁、>80～90岁、>90岁），并按病原体类型分组，采用上述方法分析各亚组检出率时间趋势。
2　结果
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2.1　食源性疾病检出率总体时间趋势
2015—2024年，共采集病例信息并检测标本18 621例，阳性标本3 973份，检出率为21.34%。在Joinpoint回归分析中，通过模型选择检验，结果显示检验P=0.144，因此不拒绝“无趋势拐点”的原假设，选择0个拐点的单一趋势模型。2015—2024年食源性疾病检出率呈显著上升的趋势（AAPC=9.8%，95%CI：3.9%～16.0%，P=0.004）。见图1。
2.2　月度检出率的时间趋势
2015—2024年按月度统计的食源性疾病检出率进行时间趋势分析，全阶段的食源性疾病AMPC为-2.9%（95% CI：-8.6%～3.1%，t=-1.000，P=0.330），表明按月度整体数据来看，虽有下降趋势，但趋势不显著。见表1。
Joinpoint 模型识别出2个关键变化点（5月和9月），将整个时间序列划分为三个阶段： 1—5月检出率呈显著上升趋势，月均变化率为16.6%；5—9月检出率化无统计学意义，MPC为 - 4.4%；9—12月检出率呈显著下降趋势，MPC为-22.5%。
2.3　分性别食源性疾病检出率时间趋势
18 621例病例中，男性10 111例，女性8 510例，男女性别比为1∶0.84。男性的检出率（21.758%）与女性（20.834%）差异无统计学意义（χ2=2.362，P=0.124）。 2015—2024 年，男女性检出率均呈现显著上升趋势，未识别到关键变化点，其AAPC分别为为9.2%（95% CI：3.5%～15.2%，t=3.8，P=0.005）和10.5%（95% CI：4.3%～17.1%，t=4.0，P=0.004）。
2.4　年龄别食源性疾病检出率时间趋势
10个年龄组中，0～10岁组检出率最高，为27.037%，随着年龄的增长，检出率有下降趋势（AAPC=-10.0%，P<0.001），每个年龄组随时间的变化呈现不同趋势。>70～80岁组，检出率呈显著上升趋势，年均变化率为16.8%（95% CI：1.9%～33.8%，t=2.6，P=0.030），为所有年龄组中年均增幅最大的群体。其他年龄段的变化趋势无统计学意义。
2.5　各病原体检出率时间趋势
2015—2024年，沙门菌的检出率呈显著上升趋势，AAPC为19.1%（95%CI：11.8%～26.8%，P<0.001）。副溶血性弧菌的检出率变化趋势不明显，AAPC为-13.8%（95% CI：-28.3%～3.6%，P=0.099）。致泻大肠埃希菌检出率的时间变化趋势无统计学意义，Joinpoint模型识别出1个趋势拐点（2020年），将2015—2024年的时间序列划分为2个阶段：2015—2020 年检出率呈下降趋势（APC=-13.7%，95%CI：-33.9%～12.6%，P=0.214），该趋势无统计学显著性；2020—2024年检出率呈上升趋势（APC=24.8%，95% CI：-1.7%～58.4%，P=0.063），该趋势亦无统计学显著性。全周期AAPC为 1.6%（95% CI：-11.5%～16.8%，P=0.818），整体趋势无统计学意义。诺如病毒的检出率呈显著上升趋势，AAPC 为 9.0%（95% CI：2.1%～16.4%，P=0.016）。见图2。
2.6　病原体月份检出率的时间趋势
2015—2024年按月统计的分析中，细菌类食源性疾病检出率呈现明显的阶段性波动。第1—8个月检出率显著上升（MPC=21.1%），第8—12 个月则显著下降（MPC=-21.9%），但全周期平均变化率无统计学意义（AMPC=-2.3%，P=0.526）；与之不同，诺如病毒检出率在整个月度周期内呈持续显著下降趋势（MPC=-7.5%，95% CI：-12.6%～-2.0%，P=0.013），未表现出明显的阶段性波动。见表2。
3　讨论
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本研究显示山西省食源性疾病总检出率为21.336%，且以9.8%的速率显著上升，该趋势与郴州市[4]监测结果一致，与安徽省[5]的下降趋势不同。总检出率的上升，一方面与检测技术进步以及工作制度的不断完善有关，使病例检出能力显著增强。同时2015—2024 年，我省持续开展食源性疾病监测专项调研工作，有效提升了哨点医院的工作主动性与业务质量；同时逐步将检测任务从属地疾控中心移交至哨点医院，优化了样品送检时效与保存条件，进一步提升了食源性疾病病例的检出率。
病原体检结果显示，沙门菌（AAPC=19.1%，P<0.001）和诺如病毒（AAPC=9.0%，P=0.016）为主要致病病原体且检出率均显著上升，其中沙门菌年均增幅最高，与湖南省[6]、北京[7]等地沙门菌检出率逐年上升的趋势一致。山西省食源性疾病可疑食品中，沙门菌检出率较高的食品种类包括了蛋与蛋制品、水产动物食品与肉与肉制品[8]，应加强对畜禽养殖、食品加工、冷链运输环节卫生监管，以及食品加工过程中交叉感染的问题。诺如病毒的持续上升与北京[9]、陕西[10]多地趋势相同，诺如病毒虽全年龄段易感，但幼儿、老年人及有基础病患者等人群症状更重[11]，此类人群患病后的就医率与采样率均会提高，除此之外，诺如病毒传播速度快，易引发集体单位暴发事件发生，尤其是幼儿园、学校及养老院。连怡遥[12]研究中指出，诺如病毒疫情整体呈上升趋势，年平均增长率为58%。由于饮食习惯不同，山西省副溶血性弧菌检出率与南方不同无显著变化。
人群分层结果显示，男女食源性疾病检出率无统计学差异且均呈显著上升趋势，增幅相近。年龄分布呈现鲜明特征：0～10岁组检出率最高（27.037%）且上升趋势最显著，>70～80岁组年均增幅最大（AAPC=16.8%），二者为检出率显著上升的高风险人群。0～10岁儿童检出率高与消化系统与免疫力尚未发育成熟有关[13]，加之家长和医生对儿童重视程度高，去医院就诊、采集标本的几率更大。>70～80岁组人群免疫力低、基础病多发，更容易发生食源性疾病，且症状较成年人更为严重，该年龄段就医意愿较高，也会引起检出率的升高。
食源性疾病月检出率趋势结果，符合食源性疾病夏秋季高发的特点，呈现1—5月显著上升、5—9月波动、9—12月显著下降的阶段性特征。细菌类则呈现1—8月显著上升、8—12月显著下降的特征，与总体结果相似，细菌类是导致食源性疾病季节性波动的核心原因。细菌类AMPC趋势无统计学意义，其原因在于1—8月的显著上升（MPC=21.1）与8—12月的显著下降（MPC=-32.9）两种趋势相互抵消所致。济南市[14]5—10月为食源性疾病高发期相同，夏秋季高温有利于细菌繁殖，储存不当更容易导致食品变质。张雪佩[15]的研究表明食源性疾病的发病会随着气温的上升呈现上升的趋势，气温的升高增加了致病菌感染的风险，同时增加了食源性疾病发病机会。而诺如病毒检出率呈持续显著下降的月度趋势，无明显阶段性波动，与山东省[16]、江苏省[17]研究结果一致，春季检出率最高，随着气温的升高检出率降低，冬季检出率会提升，但增幅未影响总体的趋势。此趋势与南金[18]、广州[19]等地冬季高发，春季次之的结果不一致。
综上所述，2015—2024年山西省食源性疾病仍需加大关注，病原体检出率呈现显著上升趋势，尤其是沙门菌、诺如病毒等主要病原体，建议将沙门菌作为核心防控对象，加强畜禽养殖源头管控，规范食品加工、冷链运输、餐饮服务等环节的卫生监督；针对诺如病毒，持续强化学校、养老院等重点场所的常态化防控，及时处置聚集性疫情。0～10岁组和>70～80岁人群作为高风险人群，建议联合社区、养老院开展食品储存、加工等环节的科普宣传，降低感染风险。在高发季节强化各部门监管，并及时提示公众做好预防。
基金
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  • 山西省卫生健康委科研课题(2022147)
文献
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2026年第53卷第13期
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202602087
  • 接收时间：2026-02-08
  • 首发时间：2026-09-28
  • 出版时间：2026-07-10
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  • 收稿日期：2026-02-08
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山西省卫生健康委科研课题(2022147)
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    山西省疾病预防控制中心，山西 太原 030032
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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