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Article(id=1241329582163415408, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241329570129956900, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202502232, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1739462400000, receivedDateStr=2025-02-14, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773885635176, onlineDateStr=2026-03-19, pubDate=1752076800000, pubDateStr=2025-07-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773885635176, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-19, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773885635176, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773885635176, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1241329570129956900, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2025', volume='52', issue='13', pageStart='2305', pageEnd='2496', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773885632307, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773885763730, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1241330121425080472, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241329570129956900, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1241330121425080473, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241329570129956900, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=2418, endPage=2424, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1241329583539147196, articleId=1241329582163415408, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Association between latent classes of intrinsic capacity and adverse health outcomes in community-dwelling older adults, columnId=1228016572892119056, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Primary Health Services, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To explore the transition patterns of latent classes of intrinsIC capacity (IC) and their associations with adverse health outcomes in community-dwelling older adults.

Methods

A convenience sample of 512 older adults from Lishui, Zhejiang was followed for one year (T1, T2). Latent transition analysis was used to identify IC latent classes and analyze their transition patterns.

Results

Three IC latent classes were identified: low IC (T1: 19.14%), moderate IC (43.75%), and high IC (37.11%). IC classes remained relatively stable over one year, with transitions mainly occurring between adjacent classes: 9.2% of low IC improved to moderate IC;14.3% of moderate IC improved to high IC while 7.1% deteriorated to low IC; and 15.8% of high IC declined to moderate IC. Chi-square tests revealed that persistent low IC (χ2=5.986, P<0.05) or moderate IC (χ2=0.044, P<0.05), and transition from high to moderate IC (χ2=0.015, P<0.05) were associated with recurrent falls (≥2 times). Transition from moderate to low IC increased hospitalization risk (χ2=5.042, P<0.05).

Conclusion

IC latent classes demonstrate relative stability in community-dwelling older adults over one year, with predominant transitions between adjacent classes. These transitions are signifICantly associated with risks of falls and hospitalization.

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目的

探讨社区老年人内在能力潜在类别的转换特征及其与不良健康结局的相关性。

方法

采用便利抽样法，选取浙江丽水社区512名老年人进行为期一年的追踪调查（T1、T2），运用潜在转换分析识别内在能力潜在类别并分析其转换规律。

结果

3个内在能力潜在类别：低内在能力（T1：19.14%）、中内在能力（43.75%）、高内在能力（37.11%）。一年内内在能力类别状态相对稳定，主要表现为相邻类别间转换：低内在能力组中9.2%的老年人改善至中内在能力组；中内在能力组中14.3%的老年人改善至高内在能力组，7.1%的老年人恶化至低内在能力组；高内在能力组中15.8%的老年人恶化至中内在能力组。χ2检验结果显示：持续处于低内在能力组（χ2=5.986，P<0.05）或中内在能力组（χ2=0.044，P<0.05）及由高内在能力组转为中内在能力组（χ2=0.015，P<0.05）的老年人更易发生反复跌倒（≥2次），中内在能力组转为低内在能力组的老年群体出现一次住院的风险增加（χ2=5.042，P<0.05）。

结论

社区老年人内在能力潜在类别在一年内呈现相对稳定性，主要表现为相邻类别间的转换。类别转换与跌倒和住院风险密切相关。

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李彩福，E-mail:
, copyrightStatement=本刊刊出的所有文章不代表中华预防医学会和本刊编委会的观点，除非特别声明。, copyrightOwner=中华预防医学会和四川大学华西公共卫生学院, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=Epn0D+gqxciE1Z3TBiHwPA==, magXml=dWE57zgkKTXII2miZBq79g==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=z0b1eVp32wx3u5baIH2pow==, pdfFileSize=781652, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=xc0MkicCTlma4T4OKrHfwg==, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=LKg3rFNu3/Xoz9VCMUrOMw==, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=

李瑶（1995—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：社区护理

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李瑶（1995—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：社区护理

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李瑶（1995—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：社区护理

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Chinese Journal of Geriatrics, 2023, 42(2): 165-168.(In Chinese), articleTitle=Impact of intrinsic capacity on predicting future falls and readmission in older patients, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241329764997329253, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2020, volume=45, issue=24, pageStart=6020, pageEnd=6027, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[30], rfOrder=37, authorNames=王瀚泽, 高歌, 杨芊芊, journalName=中国中药杂志, refType=null, unstructuredReference=王瀚泽，高歌，杨芊芊，等.基于网络药理学技术探讨熟地黄-山茱萸药对在缺血性脑卒中后遗症期的治疗机制研究[J] .中国中药杂志，2020，45（24）：6020-6027., articleTitle=基于网络药理学技术探讨熟地黄-山茱萸药对在缺血性脑卒中后遗症期的治疗机制研究, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241329765118964074, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2020, volume=45, issue=24, pageStart=6020, pageEnd=6027, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[30], rfOrder=38, authorNames=Wang HZ, Gao G, Yang QQ, journalName=China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Wang HZ, Gao G, Yang QQ, et al. Study on therapeutic mechanism of Rehmanniae Radix Praeparata-Corni Fructus in sequelae of ischemic stroke based on network pharmacology technology[J] . China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica, 2020, 45(24): 6020-6027.(In Chinese), articleTitle=Study on therapeutic mechanism of Rehmanniae Radix Praeparata-Corni Fructus in sequelae of ischemic stroke based on network pharmacology technology, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1241329758550683755, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, awardId=24YJA840006, language=CN, fundingSource=教育部人文科学研究项目规划基金项目(24YJA840006), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1241329758676512882, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, awardId=2023SJZC075, language=CN, fundingSource=丽水市科技计划项目(2023SJZC075), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1241329758798147702, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, awardId=YKY24022, language=CN, fundingSource=丽水学院研究生科研创新项目(YKY24022), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1241329753895006927, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, xref=1., ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241329753903395539, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, companyId=1241329753895006927, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=School of MedICine, Lishui University, Lishui, Zhejiang 323000, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241329753911784146, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, companyId=1241329753895006927, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1.丽水学院医学院，浙江 丽水 323000)]), AuthorCompany(id=1241329754033418969, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, xref=2., ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241329754041807577, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, companyId=1241329754033418969, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2.莲都区水东卫生院)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1241329756747133917, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, language=EN, label=Figure 1, caption=Anomaly chart of intrinsic capacity domains at time point 1, figureFileSmall=mlqAAx0g8kEA2QRR6cHhKQ==, figureFileBig=xc0MkicCTlma4T4OKrHfwg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241329756864574439, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, language=CN, label=图1, caption=T1内在能力结构域异常图表, figureFileSmall=mlqAAx0g8kEA2QRR6cHhKQ==, figureFileBig=xc0MkicCTlma4T4OKrHfwg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241329756969432050, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, language=EN, label=Figure 2, caption=Anomaly chart of intrinsic capacity domains at time point 2, figureFileSmall=UIvJUHM1y8/39Pj2OsGQNg==, figureFileBig=Ev338hW6fCU5/ZxicszWyg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241329757091066875, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, language=CN, label=图2, caption=T2内在能力结构域异常图表, figureFileSmall=UIvJUHM1y8/39Pj2OsGQNg==, figureFileBig=Ev338hW6fCU5/ZxicszWyg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241329757242060801, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, language=EN, label=Figure 3, caption=Incidence and transition probabilities of latent states at T1 and follow-up T2, figureFileSmall=6qsx3mqmr47IwIrPRjhN2Q==, figureFileBig=CZ6qJ99w1lJO5j7XgFpbvA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241329757346918413, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, language=CN, label=图3, caption=T1和随访时T2潜在状态的发生率和转移概率

注：IC为内在能力。

, figureFileSmall=6qsx3mqmr47IwIrPRjhN2Q==, figureFileBig=CZ6qJ99w1lJO5j7XgFpbvA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241329757443387409, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Latent class model fit indices for the intrinsic capacity domains of community-dwelling older adults at two time points

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
AIC BIC ΑBIC Entropy BLRT/P值VLMR-LRT/P值类别概率（%）
T1
13 203.3323 228.7623 209.717
22 867.1742 922.2722 881.0080.7340060.35/39.65
32 806.2632 891.0292 827.5460.75800.003 619.14/43.75/37.11
42 803.4742 917.9092 832.2060.7830.0200.005 92.93/39.26/18.56/39.26
52 807.3912 951.4942 843.5730.7660.3750.669 66.84/10.94/52.15/18.36/11.72
T2
13 398.4853 423.9153 404.870
23 066.3183 121.4163 080.1520.7080046.48/53.52
33 004.0023 088.7693 025.2850.7280020.90/41.60/37.50
42 997.3173 111.7513 026.0490.6860.0130.480 023.24/14.65/46.68/15.43
52 991.9613 136.0643 028.1420.7500.0300.000 814.26/11.33/6.60/46.68/21.09
), ArticleFig(id=1241329757535662106, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

社区老年人内在能力结构域两个时间点的潜在类别模型拟合指标

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
AIC BIC ΑBIC Entropy BLRT/P值VLMR-LRT/P值类别概率（%）
T1
13 203.3323 228.7623 209.717
22 867.1742 922.2722 881.0080.7340060.35/39.65
32 806.2632 891.0292 827.5460.75800.003 619.14/43.75/37.11
42 803.4742 917.9092 832.2060.7830.0200.005 92.93/39.26/18.56/39.26
52 807.3912 951.4942 843.5730.7660.3750.669 66.84/10.94/52.15/18.36/11.72
T2
13 398.4853 423.9153 404.870
23 066.3183 121.4163 080.1520.7080046.48/53.52
33 004.0023 088.7693 025.2850.7280020.90/41.60/37.50
42 997.3173 111.7513 026.0490.6860.0130.480 023.24/14.65/46.68/15.43
52 991.9613 136.0643 028.1420.7500.0300.000 814.26/11.33/6.60/46.68/21.09
), ArticleFig(id=1241329757615353892, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Latent transition analysis - MI

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
MIMLRAICBICABICvEntropy
否1.019 45 081.4015 267.8885 128.2254 0530.954
是1.533 35 082.0565 192.2535 109.7254 0530.945
), ArticleFig(id=1241329757699239981, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

LTA-MI检验

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
MIMLRAICBICABICvEntropy
否1.019 45 081.4015 267.8885 128.2254 0530.954
是1.533 35 082.0565 192.2535 109.7254 0530.945
), ArticleFig(id=1241329757774737462, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Distribution of basic demographic characteristics and health status of the sample population and their correlation with different categories ［n（%）］

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
项目T1T2
1类2类3类χ2值P值1类2类3类χ2值P值
性别
男39(39.8)107(47.8)92(48.4)2.1970.33346（43.8）97（45.1）95（49.5）1.1560.561
女59（60.2）117（52.2）98（51.6）59（56.2）118（54.9）97（50.5）
婚姻状况
未婚1（1）2（0.9）1（0.5）22.650<0.0010（0）3（1.4）1（0.5）20.847<0.001
离婚2（2）2（0.9）2（1.1）2（1.9）1（0.5）3（1.6）
已婚老伴健在65（66.3）188（83.9）169（88.9）75（71.4）175（81.4）172（89.6）
已婚丧偶30（30.6）32（14.3）18（9.5）28（26.7）36（16.7）16（8.3）
居住状况
与家人同住75（76.5）192（85.7）181（95.3）21.904<0.00185（81.0）180（83.7）183（95.3）17.637<0.001
独居23（23.5）32（14.3）9（4.7）20（19.0）35（16.3）9（4.7）
高血压
无48（49）132（58.9）113（59.5）3.3800.18552（49.5）125（58.1）116（60.4）3.4170.181
有50（51）92（41.1）77（40.5）53（50.5）90（41.9）76（39.6）
2型糖尿病
无89（90.8）199（88.8）170（89.5）0.2830.86898（93.3）191（88.8）169（88）2.1800.336
有9（9.2）25（11.2）20（10.5）7（6.7）24（11.2）23（12）
心脏病
无89（90.8）204（91.1）181（95.3）3.1760.20496（91.4）197（91.6）181（94.3）1.2850.526
有9（9.2）20（8.9）9（4.7）9（8.6）18（8.4）11（5.7）
脑血管病
无89（90.8）207（92.4）184（96.8）5.2260.07394（89.5）197（91.6）189（98.4）12.0530.002
有9（9.2）17（7.6）6（3.2）11（10.5）18（8.4）3（1.6）
), ArticleFig(id=1241329757854429245, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

样本人群基本人口特征分布、健康状况与不同类别相关性［n（%）］

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
项目T1T2
1类2类3类χ2值P值1类2类3类χ2值P值
性别
男39(39.8)107(47.8)92(48.4)2.1970.33346（43.8）97（45.1）95（49.5）1.1560.561
女59（60.2）117（52.2）98（51.6）59（56.2）118（54.9）97（50.5）
婚姻状况
未婚1（1）2（0.9）1（0.5）22.650<0.0010（0）3（1.4）1（0.5）20.847<0.001
离婚2（2）2（0.9）2（1.1）2（1.9）1（0.5）3（1.6）
已婚老伴健在65（66.3）188（83.9）169（88.9）75（71.4）175（81.4）172（89.6）
已婚丧偶30（30.6）32（14.3）18（9.5）28（26.7）36（16.7）16（8.3）
居住状况
与家人同住75（76.5）192（85.7）181（95.3）21.904<0.00185（81.0）180（83.7）183（95.3）17.637<0.001
独居23（23.5）32（14.3）9（4.7）20（19.0）35（16.3）9（4.7）
高血压
无48（49）132（58.9）113（59.5）3.3800.18552（49.5）125（58.1）116（60.4）3.4170.181
有50（51）92（41.1）77（40.5）53（50.5）90（41.9）76（39.6）
2型糖尿病
无89（90.8）199（88.8）170（89.5）0.2830.86898（93.3）191（88.8）169（88）2.1800.336
有9（9.2）25（11.2）20（10.5）7（6.7）24（11.2）23（12）
心脏病
无89（90.8）204（91.1）181（95.3）3.1760.20496（91.4）197（91.6）181（94.3）1.2850.526
有9（9.2）20（8.9）9（4.7）9（8.6）18（8.4）11（5.7）
脑血管病
无89（90.8）207（92.4）184（96.8）5.2260.07394（89.5）197（91.6）189（98.4）12.0530.002
有9（9.2）17（7.6）6（3.2）11（10.5）18（8.4）3（1.6）
), ArticleFig(id=1241329757963481159, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, language=EN, label=Table 4, caption=

Odds ratios of transition probabilities in LTA with covariates

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
项目低内在能力中内在能力高内在能力
性别（以“女性”为参照）
男性低内在能力—0.40
中内在能力0.49—0.98
高内在能力0.67—
婚姻状况（以“已婚丧偶”为参照）
已婚（老伴健在）低内在能力—0.75
中内在能力2.88—1.73
高内在能力0.43—
居住状况（以“独居”为参照）
与家人同住低内在能力—0.34
中内在能力2.84—1.83
高内在能力0.35—
高血压（以“无”为参照）
有低内在能力—1.22
中内在能力1.38—0.63
高内在能力0.83—
糖尿病-2型（以“无”为参照）
有低内在能力—3.35
中内在能力0.00—1.44
高内在能力0.56—
心脏病（以“无”为参照）
有低内在能力—1.27
中内在能力0.67—1.03
高内在能力0.66—
脑血管病（以“无”为参照）
有低内在能力—1.27
中内在能力2.67—0.00
高内在能力5.82*—
), ArticleFig(id=1241329758047367246, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, language=CN, label=表4, caption=

协变量下LTA的转换概率比值比

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
项目低内在能力中内在能力高内在能力
性别（以“女性”为参照）
男性低内在能力—0.40
中内在能力0.49—0.98
高内在能力0.67—
婚姻状况（以“已婚丧偶”为参照）
已婚（老伴健在）低内在能力—0.75
中内在能力2.88—1.73
高内在能力0.43—
居住状况（以“独居”为参照）
与家人同住低内在能力—0.34
中内在能力2.84—1.83
高内在能力0.35—
高血压（以“无”为参照）
有低内在能力—1.22
中内在能力1.38—0.63
高内在能力0.83—
糖尿病-2型（以“无”为参照）
有低内在能力—3.35
中内在能力0.00—1.44
高内在能力0.56—
心脏病（以“无”为参照）
有低内在能力—1.27
中内在能力0.67—1.03
高内在能力0.66—
脑血管病（以“无”为参照）
有低内在能力—1.27
中内在能力2.67—0.00
高内在能力5.82*—
), ArticleFig(id=1241329758169002070, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, language=EN, label=Table 5, caption=

Latent Transition Analysis (LTA) with outcome variables

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
转变模式β χ2 值P值OR（95%CI）
跌倒次数（以“无”为参考）
1次截距-2.4190.28969.831<0.001
110.3250.4570.5080.4761.36（0.57～3.39）
12-18.2290.000..0.00（0.00～0.00）
210.4730.8090.3410.5591.60（0.33～7.84）
22-0.1400.4170.1130.7370.87（0.38～1.97）
23-1.0151.0560.9240.3370.36（0.05～2.87）
32-0.1070.7900.0180.8920.86（0.19～4.22）
33—————
≥2次截距-4.9841.00324.667<0.001
112.6391.0795.9860.01414.00（1.69～115.94）
12-16.3320.000..0.00（0.00～0.00）
21-16.1680.000..0.00（0.00～0.00）
222.1371.0604.0630.0448.48（1.06～67.74）
23-16.2667 388.6110.0000.9980.00（0.00～0.00）
322.8631.1755.9400.01517.52（1.75～175.20）
33—————
住院经历（以“无”为参考）
1次截距-2.130.25768.909<0.001
低-低0.2710.4030.4520.5011.311（0.59～2.89）
低-中-16.2253 225.4510.0000.9960.00（0.00～0.00）
中-低1.3410.5975.0420.0253.82（1.19～12.33）
中-中-0.2250.3730.3640.5460.80（0.39～1.66）
中-高-1.3041.0481.5490.2130.27（0.04～2.12）
高-中-0.5090.7760.4310.5110.60（0.13～2.75）
高-高—————
≥2次截距-21.0312 923.9920.0000.994
低-低0.0265075.510.0001.0001.03（0.00～0.00）
低-中-0.1770.000..0.84（0.84～0.84）
中-低-0.2520.000..0.00（0.00～0.00）
中-中17.0672 923.9920.0000.9950.00（0.00～0.00）
中-高-0.1067 573.1780.0001.0000.90（0.00～0.00）
高-中-0.0507 720.2560.0001.0000.00（0.00～0.00）
高-高—————
), ArticleFig(id=1241329758294831196, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241329582163415408, language=CN, label=表5, caption=

加入结局变量的LTA

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
转变模式β χ2 值P值OR（95%CI）
跌倒次数（以“无”为参考）
1次截距-2.4190.28969.831<0.001
110.3250.4570.5080.4761.36（0.57～3.39）
12-18.2290.000..0.00（0.00～0.00）
210.4730.8090.3410.5591.60（0.33～7.84）
22-0.1400.4170.1130.7370.87（0.38～1.97）
23-1.0151.0560.9240.3370.36（0.05～2.87）
32-0.1070.7900.0180.8920.86（0.19～4.22）
33—————
≥2次截距-4.9841.00324.667<0.001
112.6391.0795.9860.01414.00（1.69～115.94）
12-16.3320.000..0.00（0.00～0.00）
21-16.1680.000..0.00（0.00～0.00）
222.1371.0604.0630.0448.48（1.06～67.74）
23-16.2667 388.6110.0000.9980.00（0.00～0.00）
322.8631.1755.9400.01517.52（1.75～175.20）
33—————
住院经历（以“无”为参考）
1次截距-2.130.25768.909<0.001
低-低0.2710.4030.4520.5011.311（0.59～2.89）
低-中-16.2253 225.4510.0000.9960.00（0.00～0.00）
中-低1.3410.5975.0420.0253.82（1.19～12.33）
中-中-0.2250.3730.3640.5460.80（0.39～1.66）
中-高-1.3041.0481.5490.2130.27（0.04～2.12）
高-中-0.5090.7760.4310.5110.60（0.13～2.75）
高-高—————
≥2次截距-21.0312 923.9920.0000.994
低-低0.0265075.510.0001.0001.03（0.00～0.00）
低-中-0.1770.000..0.84（0.84～0.84）
中-低-0.2520.000..0.00（0.00～0.00）
中-中17.0672 923.9920.0000.9950.00（0.00～0.00）
中-高-0.1067 573.1780.0001.0000.90（0.00～0.00）
高-中-0.0507 720.2560.0001.0000.00（0.00～0.00）
高-高—————
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社区老年人内在能力潜在类别与健康不良结局的关系探究
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李瑶 1 , 许丽娟 1 , 李时珂 1 , 赵东丽 2 , 李彩福 1
现代预防医学 | 基层卫生服务 2025,52(13): 2418-2424
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现代预防医学 | 基层卫生服务 2025, 52(13): 2418-2424
社区老年人内在能力潜在类别与健康不良结局的关系探究
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李瑶1, 许丽娟1, 李时珂1, 赵东丽2, 李彩福1
作者信息
  • 1.丽水学院医学院，浙江 丽水 323000
  • 2.莲都区水东卫生院

    • 李瑶（1995—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：社区护理

通讯作者:

李彩福，E-mail:
Association between latent classes of intrinsic capacity and adverse health outcomes in community-dwelling older adults
Yao LI1, Li-juan XU1, Shi-ke LI1, Dong-li ZHAO2, Cai-fu LI1
Affiliations
  • School of MedICine, Lishui University, Lishui, Zhejiang 323000, China
出版时间: 2025-07-10 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202502232
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摘要
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目的

探讨社区老年人内在能力潜在类别的转换特征及其与不良健康结局的相关性。

方法

采用便利抽样法，选取浙江丽水社区512名老年人进行为期一年的追踪调查（T1、T2），运用潜在转换分析识别内在能力潜在类别并分析其转换规律。

结果

3个内在能力潜在类别：低内在能力（T1：19.14%）、中内在能力（43.75%）、高内在能力（37.11%）。一年内内在能力类别状态相对稳定，主要表现为相邻类别间转换：低内在能力组中9.2%的老年人改善至中内在能力组；中内在能力组中14.3%的老年人改善至高内在能力组，7.1%的老年人恶化至低内在能力组；高内在能力组中15.8%的老年人恶化至中内在能力组。χ2检验结果显示：持续处于低内在能力组（χ2=5.986，P<0.05）或中内在能力组（χ2=0.044，P<0.05）及由高内在能力组转为中内在能力组（χ2=0.015，P<0.05）的老年人更易发生反复跌倒（≥2次），中内在能力组转为低内在能力组的老年群体出现一次住院的风险增加（χ2=5.042，P<0.05）。

结论

社区老年人内在能力潜在类别在一年内呈现相对稳定性，主要表现为相邻类别间的转换。类别转换与跌倒和住院风险密切相关。

内在能力  /  潜在转换分析  /  老年人
Objective

To explore the transition patterns of latent classes of intrinsIC capacity (IC) and their associations with adverse health outcomes in community-dwelling older adults.

Methods

A convenience sample of 512 older adults from Lishui, Zhejiang was followed for one year (T1, T2). Latent transition analysis was used to identify IC latent classes and analyze their transition patterns.

Results

Three IC latent classes were identified: low IC (T1: 19.14%), moderate IC (43.75%), and high IC (37.11%). IC classes remained relatively stable over one year, with transitions mainly occurring between adjacent classes: 9.2% of low IC improved to moderate IC;14.3% of moderate IC improved to high IC while 7.1% deteriorated to low IC; and 15.8% of high IC declined to moderate IC. Chi-square tests revealed that persistent low IC (χ2=5.986, P<0.05) or moderate IC (χ2=0.044, P<0.05), and transition from high to moderate IC (χ2=0.015, P<0.05) were associated with recurrent falls (≥2 times). Transition from moderate to low IC increased hospitalization risk (χ2=5.042, P<0.05).

Conclusion

IC latent classes demonstrate relative stability in community-dwelling older adults over one year, with predominant transitions between adjacent classes. These transitions are signifICantly associated with risks of falls and hospitalization.

Intrinsic capacity  /  Latent transition analysis  /  Older adults
李瑶, 许丽娟, 李时珂, 赵东丽, 李彩福. 社区老年人内在能力潜在类别与健康不良结局的关系探究. 现代预防医学, 2025 , 52 (13) : 2418 -2424 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202502232
Yao LI, Li-juan XU, Shi-ke LI, Dong-li ZHAO, Cai-fu LI. Association between latent classes of intrinsic capacity and adverse health outcomes in community-dwelling older adults[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2025 , 52 (13) : 2418 -2424 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202502232
正文
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老年人内在能力（intrinsic capacity）是指老年个体固有的生理储备能力，主要由运动、活力、认知、心理、感觉（视觉和听觉）等五个维度（六个功能）组成[1]。近年来，潜在类别分析（latent vlass analysis，LCA）被用于识别内在能力亚群，如我国的一项研究将50岁及以上人群分为高稳定、正常稳定、感觉障碍、全功能障碍4类[2]；法国队列则发现70岁以上人群存在内在能力所有领域都低，运动能力低，心理领域低，健壮（除活力外，所有领域都高），健壮且活力高等五种潜在状态[3]。LCA可识别老年人内在能力的异质性，但不同内在能力亚组的老年人群随时间变化如何，有待进一步探究。现有研究多基于横断面设计或高龄人群，且部分研究存在内在能力子维度测量的缺失，难以揭示我国社区老年群体内在能力状态的动态转换规律及短期变化特征。潜在转换分析（latent transition analysis, LTA）可从概率的角度通过转变矩阵估计不同类别的群体在相邻时间点潜在状态的变化，弥补传统轨迹模型对个体微小变化的敏感性不足[4]。
内在能力下降与死亡、住院及跌倒等不良结局密切相关，其中跌倒和住院作为早期不良事件与社区老年人日常生活关联更为密切[5]，并预示未来残疾或死亡风险的增加[6]。然而，不同内在能力亚组老年人群的演变方式对早期不良结局的预测效能仍需进一步验证。
综上，为更进一步揭示我国社区老年人内在能力潜在类别的转换方式及稳定性特征，明确内在能力状态转换与跌倒、住院等早期不良结局的关联，本研究尝试开展一年的纵向随访研究，运用LTA方法探究社区老年人的内在能力，为制定基于内在能力分层的个性化健康管理策略奠定证据基础。
1　对象与方法
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1.1　对象
采用便利抽样法，对浙江省丽水市3个社区的老年人进行面对面的问卷调查（T1），并进行为期一年的纵向追踪（T2）。目前，潜在转换分析无具体样本量估算方法。参考赤池信息准则(Akaike information citerion，AIC）、贝叶斯信息准则（Bayesian information citerion，BIC）、调整贝叶斯信息准则（adjusted Bayesian information criterion, ABIC）指标，其样本量在200以上工作效果更好，且参考Nylund等[7]的建议，样本量取500例，考虑20%的失访率，最终确定样本量为556例，间隔一年随访时有44例（7.9%）脱落，最终512例完成了随访。其中，男性238人、女性274人，年龄70（66，75）岁。纳入标准：年龄≥60岁；在社区居住≥6个月；自愿参与并签署知情同意书。排除标准：严重躯体疾病者；严重精神疾病患者。
经过统一培训的四名调查员对老年人进行面对面的问卷调查。本研究经丽水学院医学院伦理审查委员会同意批准（编号：2023yr019），本研究受试者均签署了知情同意书。
1.2　调查工具
1.2.1　一般资料调查表
协变量：人口社会学资料（年龄、性别、婚姻状况、居住状况）、健康状况（患慢性病情况）。结局变量：随访1年内跌倒及住院情况。跌倒定义为“无意倒在地面或较低水平的事件[8]。住院：指任何原因的住院治疗[9]。
1.2.2　内在能力评估工具
均采用WHO推荐的内在能力评估工具。运动功能：采用5次椅子（46 cm）起立试验，不能完成或时间≥14 s，判定为运动功能异常[10]。活力功能：采用Rubenstein等[11]编制的微型营养评估简表（MNA-SF），总分<12分为活力功能异常，该量表的Cronbach α为0.843。认知功能：采用简易智力状态评估量表（Mini-Cog）[10]，包含三个词语（第三版）的回忆和一个时钟绘制任务，总分0～5分，<4分为认知功能异常，该量表组内相关系数为0.857，一致性良好[12]。心理功能：采用患者健康问卷（PHQ-9）[13]，总分0～27分，≥5分定义为心理功能异常，量表在初级保健研究中的Cronbach α为0.89[14]。视觉和听觉采用自我报告式问题，如“您看远处是否存在困难？是否患有眼科疾病或正在进行眼科相关治疗”；分别在距受试者两侧一臂距离的位置，轻声低语受试者熟悉的四个词语（两侧不同），请受试者重复并逐一说出。6大功能测试完成，每个功能正常记0分，异常记1分。总分0～6分，得分越高，内在能力越差。
1.3　统计学方法
采用Nylund提出LTA分析的步骤[7]，（1）LCA，探索2个时间点的潜在类别数量，根据各亚组的条件概率及各结构域异常的发生率描述其类别特征并命名。（2）LTA，定义测量不变性，计算样本人群内在能力潜在亚组间的转换概率，并探索其协变量及结局变量。使用SPSS 27.0及Mplus 8.3进行数据处理。不符合正态分布的定量资料以［M（P25，P75）］表示。定性资料采用例数、百分比（%）表示，组间比较采用χ2检验或Fisher精确概率法。
2　结果
收起
2.1　社区老年人内在能力的潜在转变分析
以社区老年人内在能力的6个维度是否异常作为外显变量，建立2个时间点的LCA模型，每个时间点拟合了5个模型（1～5），不同类别模型的拟合指标见表1。结果显示，两个时间点B内在能力、ΑB内在能力均在3类别时最小，3类多重采样似然比检验(bootstrap likehood ratio test, BLRT)、VLMR似然比检验Vuong-Lo-Medndell-Rubin likehood ratio test, VLMR-LRT)的P均达到显著性水平，考虑到熵（Entropy）>0.7，模型可接受[15]，且响应变量类别概率均>10%，最终确定3个类别的模型为最佳拟合模型。
测量不变性检验结果表明，约束项目反应概率的3类别模型优于非约束模型，见表2。重复测量一致性分析显示，T1和T2时间点的内在能力潜在类别后验概率具有高度一致性（Kappa=0.734，P<0.001），McNemar-Bowker检验无显著差异（χ2=2.025，P=0.363）。两种结果的一致性，进一步说明一年内老年人内在能力潜在类别分布保持相对稳定，且测量工具具有较好的时间稳定性。
两个时间点的不同潜在类别的条件概率基本相同，其响应概率见图1和图2。依据各类别不同结构域异常响应概率的命名如下。低内在能力：伴有视觉、听觉、认知及运动功能等多个关键功能损害；中内在能力：认知功能和视觉功能异常的响应概率处于中等水平，而其他功能域异常率相对较低；高内在能力：功能基本正常。
通过转移概率进一步探究老年人内在能力不同潜在类别的潜在转换过程，发现一年内类别状态相对稳定，主要表现为相邻类别间转换：9.2%低内在能力组转至中内在能力组；14.3%中内在能力组转至高内在能力组，7.1%转至低内在能力组；15.8%高内在能力组转至中内在能力组。见图3。
2.2　老年人内在能力不同潜在类别及不同转换方式的影响因素分析
研究结果显示性别、高血压、2型糖尿病、心脏病、高脂血症等因素于老年人内在能力不同潜在类别无统计学意义（P>0.05），婚姻状况、居住状况在两个时间点均与不同潜在类别显著相关（P<0.05），而脑血管病在T2时不同潜在类别显著相关（P=0.002），且其中脑血管病是高内在能力组转为中内在能力组的危险因素（OR=5.82，95%CI：1.12～30.33，P=0.037），见表3、4。
2.3　老年人内在能力不同潜在类别转换方式与结局变量的分析
持续处于低内在能力组（OR=14.00，95%CI：1.69～115.94）或中内在能力组（OR=8.48，95%CI：1.06～67.74）及由高内在能力组转为中内在能力组（OR=17.52，95%CI：1.75～175.20）的老年群体更易发生最少2次的跌倒（P<0.05）。由中内在能力转为低内在能力组（OR=3.82，95%CI：1.19～12.33）的老年群体更易经历1次住院的情况（P=0.025）。见表5。
3　讨论
收起
3.1　社区老年人内在能力潜在类别的转换分析
基线研究显示，社区老年人内在能力类别占比为低内在能力（19.14%）、中内在能力（43.75%）和高内在能力（37.11%）。随访发现一年内内在能力状态保持相对稳定，类别转换主要发生在相邻类别之间。
低内在能力组维持率较高（90.8%），反映多系统功能衰退的难逆性，但仍有9.2%可逆转为更高能力组，其中运动和听觉能力改善最显著，认知和视觉能力次之。以往研究表明，老年阶段感觉及运动的神经环路仍具有较强可塑性，可通过长期的针对训练促进功能恢复[16-18]。建议针对该群体，优先从运动、听觉等改善显著领域实施干预，并借鉴双重任务干预的研究思路进行干预创新以优化干预效果[19]。
研究发现7.1%的中内在能力老年人存在向低内在能力组恶化风险，主要与运动及听觉功能衰退相关；14.3%的个体表现出认知、视觉及心理功能的改善潜力。证据表明，认知训练联合心理干预可延缓认知和运动功能衰退[20-21]，辅以营养干预可增强执行功能及情绪调节能力[22]，强化社会支持（如家庭护理、社区优化）可进一步促进功能恢复[23]。
高内在能力老年人虽具备较强的生理储备能力，但仍有15.8%向中内在能力转化的风险。尽管高社会参与度和积极生活方式有助于功能维持[24]，但感觉功能衰退可能引发社交孤立及认知负荷增加[25]，间接损害内在能力。因此，高功能个体仍需进行预防性健康管理以降低内在能力受损的风险。
3.2　社区老年人内在能力潜在类别转换的不良结局
研究发现，低-低内在能力或中-中内在能力及由高-中内在能力的老年人群存在显著的反复跌倒风险（≥2次，P<0.05）。持续处于低内在能力组的老年人群可能因肌肉力量和关节灵活度的减弱[26]、环境感知和判断能力降低、平衡功能受损[27]等使得其更易出现跌倒。中内在能力的老年人可能通过心理功能异常（如对自身能力的怀疑、对跌倒的恐惧等）[27]影响注意力及视觉运动的协调性，增加跌倒风险[28]。高内在能力老年人功能下降与脑血管病的发生显著相关（P=0.037），其认知、运动、视觉等多方面的功能易受损，跌倒。因此，对低-低内在能力的老年人群，推荐居家适老化改造及社区认知-运动综合训练；对中-中内在能力的老年人群，除了针对性平衡和肌力锻炼外，还可联合认知行为疗法，缓解心理障碍[27]；对高-中内在能力的老年人群，在脑血管病规范治疗基础上，采用动态调整的多模态康复（平衡/力量/有氧训练）方案[29]。
研究发现中-低内在能力老年群体与一年内住院史显著相关（P<0.05），机制可能涉及：脑血管病事件等打击性因素导致的多系统功能损害（吞咽/视觉/运动功能障碍）[30]，住院期间制动引发的废用综合征等[29]，环境改变诱发的心理适应障碍。建议早期实施脑血管事件康复策略；住院期开展床旁康复预防废用综合征；出院后延续居家康复计划，加强环境适应训练，并采用多学科协作模式（物理治疗、营养支持和心理干预），促进功能恢复。
本研究采用纵向设计与LTA识别社区老年人内在能力的三个异质性亚组，发现一年内内在能力状态相对稳定但存在相邻类别转换。脑血管病是高内在能力组功能恶化的危险因素，持续处于低/中内在能力组及由高-中内在能力组的老年人反复跌倒风险显著升高，中-低内在能力组的群体住院的风险增加，提示社区护理应加强脑血管病的管理，对高风险人群实施预警及靶向干预。研究验证了LTA在护理领域的适用性。但存在样本量及可干预性影响因素有限、随访期短等局限。未来将扩大样本量，增加可干预性影响因素及采用混合生长模型探索更长时间跨度的类别转换机制。
基金
收起
  • 教育部人文科学研究项目规划基金项目(24YJA840006)
  • 丽水市科技计划项目(2023SJZC075)
  • 丽水学院研究生科研创新项目(YKY24022)
文献
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2025年第52卷第13期
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202502232
  • 接收时间：2025-02-14
  • 首发时间：2026-03-19
  • 出版时间：2025-07-10
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  • 收稿日期：2025-02-14
基金
教育部人文科学研究项目规划基金项目(24YJA840006)
丽水市科技计划项目(2023SJZC075)
丽水学院研究生科研创新项目(YKY24022)
作者信息
    1.丽水学院医学院，浙江 丽水 323000
    2.莲都区水东卫生院

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