Article(id=1241102821123215779, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241102813938380911, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202405142, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1715270400000, receivedDateStr=2024-05-10, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773831571130, onlineDateStr=2026-03-18, pubDate=1724515200000, pubDateStr=2024-08-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773831571130, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-18, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773831571130, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773831571130, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1241102813938380911, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2024', volume='51', issue='16', pageStart='2881', pageEnd='3072', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773831569418, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773831807198, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1241103811318706322, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241102813938380911, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1241103811318706323, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241102813938380911, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=2929, endPage=2934, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1241102821496508865, articleId=1241102821123215779, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Development of a postpartum depression risk prediction model for Yunnan women based on the random forest algorithm, columnId=1228016568949474136, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Child and Adolescent health, Maternal and Child Health, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To construct a postpartum depression risk prediction model for multi-ethnic population in Yunnan Province of China, and identify predictive factors.

Methods

Women who were 42 days and within 1 year after childbirth were screened, and the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS≥9) was used for postpartum depression. 52 influencing factors from economics, social psychology, obstetrics, neonatology, spouse and family dynamics and other characteristics were included in the survey. A random forest algorithm was employed to construct a predictive model for postnatal depression risk in the multi-ethnic population of Yunnan Province. The model was evaluated on test sets with accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (Area Under Curve, AUC) to assess its performance.

Results

A total of 459 women were analyzed, with a postpartum depression detection rate of 11.55%. Among them, the detection rates for Han, Zhuang and other ethnic minorities were 7.56%, 13.94% and 13.92%, respectively. The top 14 variables in terms of importance scores were: anxiety, history of previous negative emotions, marital relationship, family support level, physical and mental exhaustion in caring for newborns, pregnancy risk classification, mother-infant rooming-in, feeding mode, education level, spouse’s education level, frequency of nighttime newborn care, ethnicity, parity and age. The accuracy was 92.74%, specificity was 95.50%, sensitivity was 69.23%, positive predictive value was 64.29%, negative predictive value was 96.36%, and the AUC value was 0.925, using Han, Zhuang, and other ethnic minorities as validation sets respectively. The model also demonstrated good stability.

Conclusion

The random forest algorithm-based postpartum depression risk prediction model for the multi-ethnic population in Yunnan performed well, which can be utilized to predict risk factors for postpartum depression among women in minority ethnic areas, thereby facilitating targeted intervention measures.

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目的

建立针对云南省多民族人群的产后抑郁风险预测模型并识别预测因子。

方法

于云南省某多民族聚居县对处于产后42天~1年的女性采用爱丁堡产后抑郁量表(Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, EPDS)进行产后抑郁筛查。以是否存在产后抑郁症状(EPDS ≥ 9分)为结局指标,基于随机森林算法纳入人口经济学、社会心理学、产科学、新生儿、配偶及家庭、其他特征因素共52个影响因素,在训练集上构建云南多民族人群产后抑郁风险预测模型,在测试集上采用准确率、灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值及受试者工作特征曲线(Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve, ROC曲线)下面积(Area Under Curve, AUC)评价该模型性能。

结果

本研究纳入分析的女性为459名,产后抑郁检出率为11.55%,其中汉族7.56%、壮族13.94%、其他少数民族13.92%。重要性评分位于前14的变量为:焦虑、既往不良情绪史、夫妻感情、家人支持水平、照顾新生儿身心疲惫、妊娠风险分级、母婴同室、喂养模式、文化程度、配偶文化程度、夜间照顾新生儿次数、民族、孕次、年龄。该模型准确率为92.74%,特异度为95.50%,灵敏度为69.23 %,阳性预测值为64.29%,阴性预测值为96.36%,AUC值为0.925。同时,分别以汉族、壮族和其他少数民族人群作为验证集进行内部验证,显示模型稳定性好。

结论

基于随机森林算法建立的云南多民族人群产后抑郁风险预测模型性能良好,可用于预测少数民族地区女性产后抑郁风险因子,从而采取针对性干预措施。

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黄源,E-mail:
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夏修(1999—),女,硕士在读,研究方向:孕产妇心理健康

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Journal of Affective Disorders, 2022, 309: 350-357., articleTitle=Machine learning in the prediction of postpartum depression: A review, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1241102829352440667, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241102821123215779, awardId=72264020, language=CN, fundingSource=国家自然科学基金资助项目(72264020), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1241102829486658408, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241102821123215779, awardId=CMB #19-338, language=CN, fundingSource=中华医学基金会资助项目(CMB #19-338), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1241102829595710321, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241102821123215779, awardId=2024CX08, language=CN, fundingSource=云南省哲学社会科学创新团队(2024CX08), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1241102823845319204, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241102821123215779, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241102823857902117, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241102821123215779, companyId=1241102823845319204, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=School of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, Yunnan 650500, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241102823866290727, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241102821123215779, companyId=1241102823845319204, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=昆明医科大学公共卫生学院,云南 昆明 650500)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1241102828257727240, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241102821123215779, language=EN, label=Fig.1, caption=Results of sliding window sequential forward selection, figureFileSmall=cjSn0XdX9DHd6Vf3xOQ7OQ==, figureFileBig=4rtQoUYiz53PPp/tQBmSpQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241102828358390542, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241102821123215779, language=CN, label=图1, caption=滑动窗口序贯向前选择法分析结果, figureFileSmall=cjSn0XdX9DHd6Vf3xOQ7OQ==, figureFileBig=4rtQoUYiz53PPp/tQBmSpQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241102828672963364, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241102821123215779, language=EN, label=Fig.2, caption=Variable importance ranking of the random forest risk prediction model for postpartum depression, figureFileSmall=tEkhmpB1W9IV2LGCdPUiWw==, figureFileBig=79RK8qBDi+i++k9kEEtc7g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241102828752655147, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241102821123215779, language=CN, label=图2, caption=产后抑郁随机森林风险预测模型的变量重要性排序, figureFileSmall=tEkhmpB1W9IV2LGCdPUiWw==, figureFileBig=79RK8qBDi+i++k9kEEtc7g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241102828849124147, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241102821123215779, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Detection of postpartum depression [n (%)]

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量总数
(n=459)
无产后抑郁
(n=406)
产后抑郁
(n=53)
χ2P
年龄6.5980.037
≤19岁41(8.93)32(78.05)9(21.95)
20~34岁373(81.26)331(88.74)42(11.26)
≥35岁45(9.80)43(95.56)2(4.44)
民族4.2850.117
汉族172(37.47)159(92.44)13(7.56)
壮族208(45.32)179(86.06)29(13.94)
其他少数民族79(17.21)68(86.08)11(13.92)
文化程度0.1690.681
初中及以下246(53.59)219(89.02)27(10.98)
高中及以上213(46.41)187(87.79)26(12.21)
配偶文化程度a2.1650.141
初中及以下231(50.88)199(86.15)32(13.85)
高中及以上223(49.12)202(90.58)21(9.42)
夫妻感情a20.211<0.001
74(16.30)54(72.97)20(27.03)
一般/好380(83.70)347(91.32)33(8.68)
家人支持水平a49.601<0.001
低度92(20.13)62(67.39)30(32.61)
中/高度365(79.87)342(93.70)23(6.30)
焦虑a158.337<0.001
394(86.21)378(95.94)16(4.06)
63(13.79)26(41.27)37(58.73)
既往不良情绪史a75.890<0.001
385(86.13)362(91.18)23(5.97)
62(13.87)35(56.45)27(43.55)
妊娠风险分级0.0550.815
绿色264(59.19)234(88.64)30(11.36)
黄色及其他182(40.81)160(87.91)22(12.09)
照顾新生儿身心疲惫a26.740<0.001
167(36.70)131(78.44)36(21.56)
288(63.30)272(94.44)16(5.56)
母婴同室a3.0500.081
34(7.47)27(79.41)7(20.59)
421(92.53)376(89.31)45(10.69)
喂养模式a0.2410.886
人工喂养81(17.80)73(90.12)8(9.88)
母乳喂养253(55.60)223(88.14)30(11.86)
混合喂养121(26.59)107(88.43)14(11.57)
夜间照顾新生儿次数a4.8530.028
<3次322(70.77)292(90.68)30(9.32)
≥3次133(29.23)111(83.46)22(16.54)
孕次0.8960.639
1次142(30.94)123(86.62)19(13.38)
2次124(27.02)112(90.32)12(9.68)
≥3次193(42.05)171(88.60)22(11.40)
), ArticleFig(id=1241102828983341886, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241102821123215779, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

产后抑郁检出情况[n(%)]

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量总数
(n=459)
无产后抑郁
(n=406)
产后抑郁
(n=53)
χ2P
年龄6.5980.037
≤19岁41(8.93)32(78.05)9(21.95)
20~34岁373(81.26)331(88.74)42(11.26)
≥35岁45(9.80)43(95.56)2(4.44)
民族4.2850.117
汉族172(37.47)159(92.44)13(7.56)
壮族208(45.32)179(86.06)29(13.94)
其他少数民族79(17.21)68(86.08)11(13.92)
文化程度0.1690.681
初中及以下246(53.59)219(89.02)27(10.98)
高中及以上213(46.41)187(87.79)26(12.21)
配偶文化程度a2.1650.141
初中及以下231(50.88)199(86.15)32(13.85)
高中及以上223(49.12)202(90.58)21(9.42)
夫妻感情a20.211<0.001
74(16.30)54(72.97)20(27.03)
一般/好380(83.70)347(91.32)33(8.68)
家人支持水平a49.601<0.001
低度92(20.13)62(67.39)30(32.61)
中/高度365(79.87)342(93.70)23(6.30)
焦虑a158.337<0.001
394(86.21)378(95.94)16(4.06)
63(13.79)26(41.27)37(58.73)
既往不良情绪史a75.890<0.001
385(86.13)362(91.18)23(5.97)
62(13.87)35(56.45)27(43.55)
妊娠风险分级0.0550.815
绿色264(59.19)234(88.64)30(11.36)
黄色及其他182(40.81)160(87.91)22(12.09)
照顾新生儿身心疲惫a26.740<0.001
167(36.70)131(78.44)36(21.56)
288(63.30)272(94.44)16(5.56)
母婴同室a3.0500.081
34(7.47)27(79.41)7(20.59)
421(92.53)376(89.31)45(10.69)
喂养模式a0.2410.886
人工喂养81(17.80)73(90.12)8(9.88)
母乳喂养253(55.60)223(88.14)30(11.86)
混合喂养121(26.59)107(88.43)14(11.57)
夜间照顾新生儿次数a4.8530.028
<3次322(70.77)292(90.68)30(9.32)
≥3次133(29.23)111(83.46)22(16.54)
孕次0.8960.639
1次142(30.94)123(86.62)19(13.38)
2次124(27.02)112(90.32)12(9.68)
≥3次193(42.05)171(88.60)22(11.40)
), ArticleFig(id=1241102829100782408, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241102821123215779, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Performance of random forest risk prediction model

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
评价指标验证集准确率
(%)
特异度
(%)
灵敏度
(%)
阳性预测值
(%)
阴性预测值
(%)
AUC
30%总人群92.7495.5069.2364.2996.360.925
汉族98.7699.3390.9190.9199.330.972
壮族97.8998.1696.3089.6699.380.994
其他少数民族95.9598.4480.0088.8996.920.983
), ArticleFig(id=1241102829218222929, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241102821123215779, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

随机森林风险预测模型性能

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
评价指标验证集准确率
(%)
特异度
(%)
灵敏度
(%)
阳性预测值
(%)
阴性预测值
(%)
AUC
30%总人群92.7495.5069.2364.2996.360.925
汉族98.7699.3390.9190.9199.330.972
壮族97.8998.1696.3089.6699.380.994
其他少数民族95.9598.4480.0088.8996.920.983
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基于随机森林算法的云南女性产后抑郁风险预测模型构建
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夏修 , 黄睿 , 邓春燕 , 邓睿 , 黄源
现代预防医学 | 儿少卫生与妇幼保健 2024,51(16): 2929-2934
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现代预防医学 | 儿少卫生与妇幼保健 2024, 51(16): 2929-2934
基于随机森林算法的云南女性产后抑郁风险预测模型构建
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夏修, 黄睿, 邓春燕, 邓睿, 黄源
作者信息
  • 昆明医科大学公共卫生学院,云南 昆明 650500
  • 夏修(1999—),女,硕士在读,研究方向:孕产妇心理健康

通讯作者:

黄源,E-mail:
Development of a postpartum depression risk prediction model for Yunnan women based on the random forest algorithm
Xiu XIA, Rui HUANG, Chun-yan DENG, Rui DENG, Yuan HUANG
Affiliations
  • School of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, Yunnan 650500, China
出版时间: 2024-08-25 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202405142
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目的

建立针对云南省多民族人群的产后抑郁风险预测模型并识别预测因子。

方法

于云南省某多民族聚居县对处于产后42天~1年的女性采用爱丁堡产后抑郁量表(Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, EPDS)进行产后抑郁筛查。以是否存在产后抑郁症状(EPDS ≥ 9分)为结局指标,基于随机森林算法纳入人口经济学、社会心理学、产科学、新生儿、配偶及家庭、其他特征因素共52个影响因素,在训练集上构建云南多民族人群产后抑郁风险预测模型,在测试集上采用准确率、灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值及受试者工作特征曲线(Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve, ROC曲线)下面积(Area Under Curve, AUC)评价该模型性能。

结果

本研究纳入分析的女性为459名,产后抑郁检出率为11.55%,其中汉族7.56%、壮族13.94%、其他少数民族13.92%。重要性评分位于前14的变量为:焦虑、既往不良情绪史、夫妻感情、家人支持水平、照顾新生儿身心疲惫、妊娠风险分级、母婴同室、喂养模式、文化程度、配偶文化程度、夜间照顾新生儿次数、民族、孕次、年龄。该模型准确率为92.74%,特异度为95.50%,灵敏度为69.23 %,阳性预测值为64.29%,阴性预测值为96.36%,AUC值为0.925。同时,分别以汉族、壮族和其他少数民族人群作为验证集进行内部验证,显示模型稳定性好。

结论

基于随机森林算法建立的云南多民族人群产后抑郁风险预测模型性能良好,可用于预测少数民族地区女性产后抑郁风险因子,从而采取针对性干预措施。

多民族  /  产后抑郁  /  随机森林  /  风险预测模型  /  内部验证
Objective

To construct a postpartum depression risk prediction model for multi-ethnic population in Yunnan Province of China, and identify predictive factors.

Methods

Women who were 42 days and within 1 year after childbirth were screened, and the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS≥9) was used for postpartum depression. 52 influencing factors from economics, social psychology, obstetrics, neonatology, spouse and family dynamics and other characteristics were included in the survey. A random forest algorithm was employed to construct a predictive model for postnatal depression risk in the multi-ethnic population of Yunnan Province. The model was evaluated on test sets with accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (Area Under Curve, AUC) to assess its performance.

Results

A total of 459 women were analyzed, with a postpartum depression detection rate of 11.55%. Among them, the detection rates for Han, Zhuang and other ethnic minorities were 7.56%, 13.94% and 13.92%, respectively. The top 14 variables in terms of importance scores were: anxiety, history of previous negative emotions, marital relationship, family support level, physical and mental exhaustion in caring for newborns, pregnancy risk classification, mother-infant rooming-in, feeding mode, education level, spouse’s education level, frequency of nighttime newborn care, ethnicity, parity and age. The accuracy was 92.74%, specificity was 95.50%, sensitivity was 69.23%, positive predictive value was 64.29%, negative predictive value was 96.36%, and the AUC value was 0.925, using Han, Zhuang, and other ethnic minorities as validation sets respectively. The model also demonstrated good stability.

Conclusion

The random forest algorithm-based postpartum depression risk prediction model for the multi-ethnic population in Yunnan performed well, which can be utilized to predict risk factors for postpartum depression among women in minority ethnic areas, thereby facilitating targeted intervention measures.

Multi-ethnic  /  Postpartum depression  /  Random forest  /  Risk prediction model  /  Internal validation
夏修, 黄睿, 邓春燕, 邓睿, 黄源. 基于随机森林算法的云南女性产后抑郁风险预测模型构建. 现代预防医学, 2024 , 51 (16) : 2929 -2934 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202405142
Xiu XIA, Rui HUANG, Chun-yan DENG, Rui DENG, Yuan HUANG. Development of a postpartum depression risk prediction model for Yunnan women based on the random forest algorithm[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2024 , 51 (16) : 2929 -2934 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202405142
产后抑郁多发生在产妇分娩后4周内,但目前大多数研究人员将其定义为分娩后6个月甚至1年的抑郁症状[1-2]。大多数女性在分娩后有过短暂的情绪低落或产后忧郁,这种症状多能自行缓解,而未缓解的可能发展为产后抑郁症[3-6],这将严重威胁产妇及新生儿心理健康及生命安全,建立产后抑郁风险预测模型对早期识别并筛查重点人群尤为重要。现有研究采用传统参数模型如logistic回归分析产后抑郁预测因素及效应值大小[7-10],主要涉及生物、心理及社会三方面因素,但对产科、社会心理因素的收集仍不够全面,并且多维度的影响因素易存在过拟合、预测精度低等问题。随机森林作为一种成熟的机器学习算法,具有将影响因素降维、不易过拟合且能高效处理缺失值等优点[11-12],被应用于构建汉族或全人群产后抑郁风险预测模型[13-15],对多民族人群产后抑郁风险预测的研究较少。因此,本研究通过收集人口经济学、社会心理学、产科学、新生儿、配偶及家庭、其他特征因素,并基于随机森林算法构建、验证和评价覆盖云南省多民族人群的产抑郁风险预测模型,为早期识别和筛查高危人群提供依据。
于2022年5月在云南省某民族聚居县,根据该县当时符合纳入排除标准的女性名单,通过走访卫生机构(县妇幼保健院、县人民医院及各个基层卫生机构)、社区或入户的形式,对所有处于产后42天~1年的女性进行抑郁筛查和问卷调查。纳入标准:(1)在当地居住满3个月以上;(2)处于产后42天~1年;(3)能独立完成问卷并签署知情同意书。排除标准:当前存在严重精神障碍或智力障碍者。
本次接受调查的对象共480人,均签署知情同意书,结局指标完整的可视为有效问卷,共459份,有效率为95.63%。研究已通过昆明医科大学伦理委员会批准(伦理审批号:KMMU2022MEC013)。
本次采用课题组自制的《产妇心理健康调查问卷》对研究对象进行面对面调查,该问卷内容包含爱丁堡抑郁量表(Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, EPDS)[16](EPDS≥9分作为存在抑郁症状的筛查界值)、广泛焦虑量表(Generalized Anxiety Disorder-7, GAD-7)[17]、多维度领悟社会支持量表(Multidimensional Scale of Perceived Social Support, MSPSS)[18]和世界卫生组织残疾评定量表(the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule, WHO DAS2.0)[19],涉及人口经济学、心理社会学、产科学、新生儿、配偶及家庭、其他特征因素[20]6个维度共52个因素,分别为年龄(岁)、民族、文化程度、职业、配偶民族、配偶文化程度、配偶职业、丈夫家族精神病史、家庭月收入(元)、居住地、和谁同住、婚姻状况、购买医疗保险、生孩子经济担忧、家人支持水平、夫妻感情、焦虑、对抑郁症的态度、曾做过抑郁症检查、既往不良情绪史、既往精神障碍史、近一年内经历负性事件、产妇家族精神病史、存在产后抑郁症状、不孕症史、上一次怀孕经历、孕次(含本次/次)、妊娠风险分级、不良孕产史、上一次分娩经历、产次(次)、本次生孩子数(个)、产后阶段、产程时间(分钟)、分娩时心理准备、分娩时胎儿状态、产后恢复情况、能正常泌乳新生儿、产后泌乳量、对新生儿健康状况满意、喂养模式、照顾新生儿身心疲惫、夜间照顾新生儿次数、新生儿由谁照顾、母婴同室、新生儿窒息、新生儿不良结局种类(种)、每周锻炼次数(次)、每次锻炼时间(分钟)、正餐次数(次)、睡眠正常、不良生活习惯史、活动受限程度。预调查显示,研究对象可以较好的理解问卷内容,完成问卷调查平均用时为15分钟。研究开始前对有医学背景的调查员进行严格培训,问卷调查中审核员及时进行资料清理和检查,所有数据录入均遵循双录入原则,以保证问卷质量。
采用R 4.1.2软件中的caret软件包按照7∶3的比例将数据集划分为训练集和测试集,使用randomForest软件包基于滑动窗口序贯向前选择法(Sliding Windows Sequential Forward Selection, SWSFS)[21]筛选出重要变量建立并评价随机森林模型[22],评价影响因素的重要性采用平均准确度降低(Mean Decrease Accuracy, MDA),其值越大,说明该影响因素越重要[23]。本研究选用准确率、灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值及受试者工作特征曲线(Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve, ROC曲线)下面积(Area Under Curve, AUC)6个指标评价随机森林风险预测模型的性能,即分别以总人群、汉族、壮族和其他少数民族样本集为测试集评估所建立的预测模型在不同民族人群中的稳定性。
使用Stata 15.0软件对数据进行统计分析,对计数资料采用频数(百分比)描述。采用χ2检验分析不同特征人群中产后抑郁检出率的差异,检验水准α=0.05。
本研究纳入分析的产妇为459名,平均年龄为27.04±5.82岁,初中及以下学历占比53.59%,56.43%的产妇居住在农村。产后抑郁检出率为11.55%(EPDS ≥ 9分),其中汉族产后抑郁检出率为7.56%,壮族为13.94%,其他少数民族为13.92%,三者检出率无统计学差异(χ2=4.285,P=0.117)。详见表1
按照7∶3的比例将数据集划分为训练集和测试集,其中测试集有136例数据,训练集有323例。将训练集和测试集的人口经济学、心理社会学、产科学、新生儿、配偶及家庭、其他特征因素共52个变量进行比较,除配偶文化程度(χ2=5.296,P=0.021)外,其余变量在两个数据集之间均无统计学差异,可见两组数据均衡性较好,可用测试集中的数据验证预测模型。
本研究采用SWSFS进行变量筛选,结果显示,种子数为1 111,决策树数量为500,最佳分类变量为8时,误差趋于稳定,此时模型的错误率最低。变量数为14时平均估算袋外误差率最小(0.074),滑动窗口序贯向前选择法分析结果如图1所示。
重要性评分排名前14位的变量MDA值由高到低依次是焦虑(16.05)、既往不良情绪史(13.36)、夫妻感情(3.98)、家人支持水平(3.73)、照顾新生儿身心疲惫(3.40)、妊娠风险分级(2.68)、母婴同室(2.43)、喂养模式(2.17)、文化程度(1.97)、配偶文化程度(1.88)、夜间照顾新生儿次数(1.80)、民族(1.72)、孕次(1.11)、年龄(1.04)。重要性评分如图2所示。
本研究中采用30%总人群(136例)、汉族、壮族和其他少数民族分别作为验证集进行模型性能验证。结果显示,随机森林产后抑郁风险预测模型的准确性较好,且在不同民族人群中的预测稳定性较高,如表2所示。
本研究对象的产后抑郁检出率为11.55%(EPDS≥9分),与国内一项纳入77个研究的Meta分析结果(产后抑郁检出率为10.50~14.50%)相符[24-25],但低于一项采用EPDS(≥9分)筛查广西9个少数民族地级市共413名产妇的产后抑郁检出率(38.50%)[26],可能与该研究对象的筛查时间和民族构成差异有关。本研究中汉族检出率为7.56%,低于壮族的13.94%和其他少数民族的13.92%,但尚不认为差异有统计学意义。一项关于我国中西部不同民族地区产后抑郁检出率的研究中,河南汉族检出率(8.50%)低于四川彝族(24.50%)和西藏藏族(14.30%)[27],与本研究结果趋势相似。整体来说,少数民族或少数民族地区产妇是产后抑郁的高危人群,应关注少数民族及少数民族地区女性产后抑郁的早期识别及筛查。此外,本研究发现配偶民族与产后抑郁发生有统计学关联,其中配偶为壮族的产妇产后抑郁检出率最高(15.63%),配偶为汉族的产后抑郁检出率最低(7.58%)。有研究显示,已婚妇女家务繁重是发生产后抑郁的危险因素[28]。而第四期中国妇女社会地位调查显示,女性仍承担家务劳动的重担,且少数民族地区仍存在“男尊女卑”的传统习俗,女性平均每天家务劳动时间长达2小时[29]。今后应进一步关注妇女尤其是少数民族妇女的身心健康问题,不断提升妇幼卫生服务公平性和均等化,促进妇女健康水平不断提高。
随机森林作为一种非参数化模型,在建模过程中能对众多影响因素进行降维,本研究综合52个变量,利用重要性排序筛选重要变量进行产后抑郁风险预测模型建模。而既往研究先采用单因素分析进行变量筛选,再运用随机森林进行建模。本研究构建的产后抑郁风险预测模型准确率(92.74%)和灵敏度(69.23%)均高于肖美丽等人[23]选取单因素分析有统计学意义的影响因素构建的随机森林模型所得到的结果(80.10%和61.40%),同时,本研究AUC值(0.925)与钟敏慧等人[11]选取产后6周女性作为研究对象所构建的logistic、支持向量机及随机森林模型一致,并高于国外一项纳入11个包含支持向量机、随机森林等机器学习算法的产后抑郁风险预测模型研究的AUC值(高于0.700)[30],模型准确性较高。目前关于多民族女性产后抑郁风险预测模型的研究较少。本研究中纳入产后抑郁风险预测模型的因素主要是社会心理、产科及一般人口学因素,与中西部地区产后抑郁logistic回归模型结果显示的产科、新生儿、一般人口学特征健康知识知晓率[27]存在差异,可能是本研究涉及到的少数民族种类、所调查的影响因素及选用模型差异所致。然而,本研究所构建的产后抑郁风险预测模型在汉族、壮族和其他少数民族人群中的预测准确性均较高,说明模型在不同民族人群中的稳定性较好,对预测少数民族地区女性产后抑郁发生风险,以及对筛查产后抑郁高危人群,采取针对性干预措施具有指导意义。
本研究存在以下研究局限:在研究设计方面,本研究属于回顾性问卷调查,虽已严格培训调查员,且审核员在现场及时审核问卷内容,但仍不可避免回忆偏倚;此外,一次横断面调查无法掌握女性在产后42天至1年内的抑郁症状变化情况,未来需开展随访研究进行观察。在研究结果推广性方面,本研究对象仅涉及15个民族,样本量仍较小,虽然构建的产后抑郁风险预测模型在不同民族人群中得到了初步验证,但在未来的研究中仍需扩大样本,覆盖更多的民族。
  • 国家自然科学基金资助项目(72264020)
  • 中华医学基金会资助项目(CMB #19-338)
  • 云南省哲学社会科学创新团队(2024CX08)
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2024年第51卷第16期
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202405142
  • 接收时间:2024-05-10
  • 首发时间:2026-03-18
  • 出版时间:2024-08-25
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  • 收稿日期:2024-05-10
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国家自然科学基金资助项目(72264020)
中华医学基金会资助项目(CMB #19-338)
云南省哲学社会科学创新团队(2024CX08)
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    昆明医科大学公共卫生学院,云南 昆明 650500

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
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genus
种数
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species
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Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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