Article(id=1241102821123215779, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241102813938380911, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202405142, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1715270400000, receivedDateStr=2024-05-10, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773831571130, onlineDateStr=2026-03-18, pubDate=1724515200000, pubDateStr=2024-08-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773831571130, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-18, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773831571130, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773831571130, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1241102813938380911, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2024', volume='51', issue='16', pageStart='2881', pageEnd='3072', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773831569418, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773831807198, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1241103811318706322, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241102813938380911, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1241103811318706323, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241102813938380911, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=2929, endPage=2934, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1241102821496508865, articleId=1241102821123215779, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Development of a postpartum depression risk prediction model for Yunnan women based on the random forest algorithm, columnId=1228016568949474136, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Child and Adolescent health, Maternal and Child Health, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective To construct a postpartum depression risk prediction model for multi-ethnic population in Yunnan Province of China, and identify predictive factors.
Methods Women who were 42 days and within 1 year after childbirth were screened, and the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS≥9) was used for postpartum depression. 52 influencing factors from economics, social psychology, obstetrics, neonatology, spouse and family dynamics and other characteristics were included in the survey. A random forest algorithm was employed to construct a predictive model for postnatal depression risk in the multi-ethnic population of Yunnan Province. The model was evaluated on test sets with accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (Area Under Curve, AUC) to assess its performance.
Results A total of 459 women were analyzed, with a postpartum depression detection rate of 11.55%. Among them, the detection rates for Han, Zhuang and other ethnic minorities were 7.56%, 13.94% and 13.92%, respectively. The top 14 variables in terms of importance scores were: anxiety, history of previous negative emotions, marital relationship, family support level, physical and mental exhaustion in caring for newborns, pregnancy risk classification, mother-infant rooming-in, feeding mode, education level, spouse’s education level, frequency of nighttime newborn care, ethnicity, parity and age. The accuracy was 92.74%, specificity was 95.50%, sensitivity was 69.23%, positive predictive value was 64.29%, negative predictive value was 96.36%, and the AUC value was 0.925, using Han, Zhuang, and other ethnic minorities as validation sets respectively. The model also demonstrated good stability.
Conclusion The random forest algorithm-based postpartum depression risk prediction model for the multi-ethnic population in Yunnan performed well, which can be utilized to predict risk factors for postpartum depression among women in minority ethnic areas, thereby facilitating targeted intervention measures.
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目的 建立针对云南省多民族人群的产后抑郁风险预测模型并识别预测因子。
方法 于云南省某多民族聚居县对处于产后42天~1年的女性采用爱丁堡产后抑郁量表(Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, EPDS)进行产后抑郁筛查。以是否存在产后抑郁症状(EPDS ≥ 9分)为结局指标,基于随机森林算法纳入人口经济学、社会心理学、产科学、新生儿、配偶及家庭、其他特征因素共52个影响因素,在训练集上构建云南多民族人群产后抑郁风险预测模型,在测试集上采用准确率、灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值及受试者工作特征曲线(Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve, ROC曲线)下面积(Area Under Curve, AUC)评价该模型性能。
结果 本研究纳入分析的女性为459名,产后抑郁检出率为11.55%,其中汉族7.56%、壮族13.94%、其他少数民族13.92%。重要性评分位于前14的变量为:焦虑、既往不良情绪史、夫妻感情、家人支持水平、照顾新生儿身心疲惫、妊娠风险分级、母婴同室、喂养模式、文化程度、配偶文化程度、夜间照顾新生儿次数、民族、孕次、年龄。该模型准确率为92.74%,特异度为95.50%,灵敏度为69.23 %,阳性预测值为64.29%,阴性预测值为96.36%,AUC值为0.925。同时,分别以汉族、壮族和其他少数民族人群作为验证集进行内部验证,显示模型稳定性好。
结论 基于随机森林算法建立的云南多民族人群产后抑郁风险预测模型性能良好,可用于预测少数民族地区女性产后抑郁风险因子,从而采取针对性干预措施。
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本刊刊出的所有文章不代表中华预防医学会和本刊编委会的观点,除非特别声明。, copyrightOwner=中华预防医学会和四川大学华西公共卫生学院, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=E42LB23Kj2SP2zAt7wMv+w==, magXml=kLezraQyVS6u+fnCLjGISw==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=P678+deR9+BaTeY5hyZVAw==, pdfFileSize=807432, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=4rtQoUYiz53PPp/tQBmSpQ==, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=FZsSki67L7unv5n8KfkS3A==, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=
夏修(1999—),女,硕士在读,研究方向:孕产妇心理健康
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Results of sliding window sequential forward selection, figureFileSmall=cjSn0XdX9DHd6Vf3xOQ7OQ==, figureFileBig=4rtQoUYiz53PPp/tQBmSpQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241102828358390542, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241102821123215779, language=CN, label=图1, caption=
滑动窗口序贯向前选择法分析结果, figureFileSmall=cjSn0XdX9DHd6Vf3xOQ7OQ==, figureFileBig=4rtQoUYiz53PPp/tQBmSpQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241102828672963364, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241102821123215779, language=EN, label=Fig.2, caption=
Variable importance ranking of the random forest risk prediction model for postpartum depression, figureFileSmall=tEkhmpB1W9IV2LGCdPUiWw==, figureFileBig=79RK8qBDi+i++k9kEEtc7g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241102828752655147, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241102821123215779, language=CN, label=图2, caption=
产后抑郁随机森林风险预测模型的变量重要性排序, figureFileSmall=tEkhmpB1W9IV2LGCdPUiWw==, figureFileBig=79RK8qBDi+i++k9kEEtc7g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241102828849124147, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241102821123215779, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=
Detection of postpartum depression [n (%)]
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
| 变量 | 总数 (n=459) | 无产后抑郁 (n=406) | 产后抑郁 (n=53) | χ2 | P值 |
|---|
| 年龄 | | | | 6.598 | 0.037 |
| ≤19岁 | 41(8.93) | 32(78.05) | 9(21.95) | | |
| 20~34岁 | 373(81.26) | 331(88.74) | 42(11.26) | | |
| ≥35岁 | 45(9.80) | 43(95.56) | 2(4.44) | | |
| 民族 | | | | 4.285 | 0.117 |
| 汉族 | 172(37.47) | 159(92.44) | 13(7.56) | | |
| 壮族 | 208(45.32) | 179(86.06) | 29(13.94) | | |
| 其他少数民族 | 79(17.21) | 68(86.08) | 11(13.92) | | |
| 文化程度 | | | | 0.169 | 0.681 |
| 初中及以下 | 246(53.59) | 219(89.02) | 27(10.98) | | |
| 高中及以上 | 213(46.41) | 187(87.79) | 26(12.21) | | |
| 配偶文化程度a | | | | 2.165 | 0.141 |
| 初中及以下 | 231(50.88) | 199(86.15) | 32(13.85) | | |
| 高中及以上 | 223(49.12) | 202(90.58) | 21(9.42) | | |
| 夫妻感情a | | | | 20.211 | <0.001 |
| 差 | 74(16.30) | 54(72.97) | 20(27.03) | | |
| 一般/好 | 380(83.70) | 347(91.32) | 33(8.68) | | |
| 家人支持水平a | | | | 49.601 | <0.001 |
| 低度 | 92(20.13) | 62(67.39) | 30(32.61) | | |
| 中/高度 | 365(79.87) | 342(93.70) | 23(6.30) | | |
| 焦虑a | | | | 158.337 | <0.001 |
| 无 | 394(86.21) | 378(95.94) | 16(4.06) | | |
| 有 | 63(13.79) | 26(41.27) | 37(58.73) | | |
| 既往不良情绪史a | | | | 75.890 | <0.001 |
| 否 | 385(86.13) | 362(91.18) | 23(5.97) | | |
| 是 | 62(13.87) | 35(56.45) | 27(43.55) | | |
| 妊娠风险分级 | | | | 0.055 | 0.815 |
| 绿色 | 264(59.19) | 234(88.64) | 30(11.36) | | |
| 黄色及其他 | 182(40.81) | 160(87.91) | 22(12.09) | | |
| 照顾新生儿身心疲惫a | | | | 26.740 | <0.001 |
| 是 | 167(36.70) | 131(78.44) | 36(21.56) | | |
| 否 | 288(63.30) | 272(94.44) | 16(5.56) | | |
| 母婴同室a | | | | 3.050 | 0.081 |
| 否 | 34(7.47) | 27(79.41) | 7(20.59) | | |
| 是 | 421(92.53) | 376(89.31) | 45(10.69) | | |
| 喂养模式a | | | | 0.241 | 0.886 |
| 人工喂养 | 81(17.80) | 73(90.12) | 8(9.88) | | |
| 母乳喂养 | 253(55.60) | 223(88.14) | 30(11.86) | | |
| 混合喂养 | 121(26.59) | 107(88.43) | 14(11.57) | | |
| 夜间照顾新生儿次数a | | | | 4.853 | 0.028 |
| <3次 | 322(70.77) | 292(90.68) | 30(9.32) | | |
| ≥3次 | 133(29.23) | 111(83.46) | 22(16.54) | | |
| 孕次 | | | | 0.896 | 0.639 |
| 1次 | 142(30.94) | 123(86.62) | 19(13.38) | | |
| 2次 | 124(27.02) | 112(90.32) | 12(9.68) | | |
| ≥3次 | 193(42.05) | 171(88.60) | 22(11.40) | | |
), ArticleFig(id=1241102828983341886, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241102821123215779, language=CN, label=表1, caption=
产后抑郁检出情况[n(%)]
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
| 变量 | 总数 (n=459) | 无产后抑郁 (n=406) | 产后抑郁 (n=53) | χ2 | P值 |
|---|
| 年龄 | | | | 6.598 | 0.037 |
| ≤19岁 | 41(8.93) | 32(78.05) | 9(21.95) | | |
| 20~34岁 | 373(81.26) | 331(88.74) | 42(11.26) | | |
| ≥35岁 | 45(9.80) | 43(95.56) | 2(4.44) | | |
| 民族 | | | | 4.285 | 0.117 |
| 汉族 | 172(37.47) | 159(92.44) | 13(7.56) | | |
| 壮族 | 208(45.32) | 179(86.06) | 29(13.94) | | |
| 其他少数民族 | 79(17.21) | 68(86.08) | 11(13.92) | | |
| 文化程度 | | | | 0.169 | 0.681 |
| 初中及以下 | 246(53.59) | 219(89.02) | 27(10.98) | | |
| 高中及以上 | 213(46.41) | 187(87.79) | 26(12.21) | | |
| 配偶文化程度a | | | | 2.165 | 0.141 |
| 初中及以下 | 231(50.88) | 199(86.15) | 32(13.85) | | |
| 高中及以上 | 223(49.12) | 202(90.58) | 21(9.42) | | |
| 夫妻感情a | | | | 20.211 | <0.001 |
| 差 | 74(16.30) | 54(72.97) | 20(27.03) | | |
| 一般/好 | 380(83.70) | 347(91.32) | 33(8.68) | | |
| 家人支持水平a | | | | 49.601 | <0.001 |
| 低度 | 92(20.13) | 62(67.39) | 30(32.61) | | |
| 中/高度 | 365(79.87) | 342(93.70) | 23(6.30) | | |
| 焦虑a | | | | 158.337 | <0.001 |
| 无 | 394(86.21) | 378(95.94) | 16(4.06) | | |
| 有 | 63(13.79) | 26(41.27) | 37(58.73) | | |
| 既往不良情绪史a | | | | 75.890 | <0.001 |
| 否 | 385(86.13) | 362(91.18) | 23(5.97) | | |
| 是 | 62(13.87) | 35(56.45) | 27(43.55) | | |
| 妊娠风险分级 | | | | 0.055 | 0.815 |
| 绿色 | 264(59.19) | 234(88.64) | 30(11.36) | | |
| 黄色及其他 | 182(40.81) | 160(87.91) | 22(12.09) | | |
| 照顾新生儿身心疲惫a | | | | 26.740 | <0.001 |
| 是 | 167(36.70) | 131(78.44) | 36(21.56) | | |
| 否 | 288(63.30) | 272(94.44) | 16(5.56) | | |
| 母婴同室a | | | | 3.050 | 0.081 |
| 否 | 34(7.47) | 27(79.41) | 7(20.59) | | |
| 是 | 421(92.53) | 376(89.31) | 45(10.69) | | |
| 喂养模式a | | | | 0.241 | 0.886 |
| 人工喂养 | 81(17.80) | 73(90.12) | 8(9.88) | | |
| 母乳喂养 | 253(55.60) | 223(88.14) | 30(11.86) | | |
| 混合喂养 | 121(26.59) | 107(88.43) | 14(11.57) | | |
| 夜间照顾新生儿次数a | | | | 4.853 | 0.028 |
| <3次 | 322(70.77) | 292(90.68) | 30(9.32) | | |
| ≥3次 | 133(29.23) | 111(83.46) | 22(16.54) | | |
| 孕次 | | | | 0.896 | 0.639 |
| 1次 | 142(30.94) | 123(86.62) | 19(13.38) | | |
| 2次 | 124(27.02) | 112(90.32) | 12(9.68) | | |
| ≥3次 | 193(42.05) | 171(88.60) | 22(11.40) | | |
), ArticleFig(id=1241102829100782408, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241102821123215779, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=
Performance of random forest risk prediction model
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
| 评价指标验证集 | 准确率 (%) | 特异度 (%) | 灵敏度 (%) | 阳性预测值 (%) | 阴性预测值 (%) | AUC |
|---|
| 30%总人群 | 92.74 | 95.50 | 69.23 | 64.29 | 96.36 | 0.925 |
| 汉族 | 98.76 | 99.33 | 90.91 | 90.91 | 99.33 | 0.972 |
| 壮族 | 97.89 | 98.16 | 96.30 | 89.66 | 99.38 | 0.994 |
| 其他少数民族 | 95.95 | 98.44 | 80.00 | 88.89 | 96.92 | 0.983 |
), ArticleFig(id=1241102829218222929, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241102821123215779, language=CN, label=表2, caption=
随机森林风险预测模型性能
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
| 评价指标验证集 | 准确率 (%) | 特异度 (%) | 灵敏度 (%) | 阳性预测值 (%) | 阴性预测值 (%) | AUC |
|---|
| 30%总人群 | 92.74 | 95.50 | 69.23 | 64.29 | 96.36 | 0.925 |
| 汉族 | 98.76 | 99.33 | 90.91 | 90.91 | 99.33 | 0.972 |
| 壮族 | 97.89 | 98.16 | 96.30 | 89.66 | 99.38 | 0.994 |
| 其他少数民族 | 95.95 | 98.44 | 80.00 | 88.89 | 96.92 | 0.983 |
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