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Article(id=1241067203399840654, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241067197318091153, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202409142, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1725897600000, receivedDateStr=2024-09-10, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773823079203, onlineDateStr=2026-03-18, pubDate=1741536000000, pubDateStr=2025-03-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773823079203, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-18, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773823079203, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773823079203, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1241067197318091153, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2025', volume='52', issue='5', pageStart='769', pageEnd='960', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773823077754, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773823268053, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1241067995544482681, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241067197318091153, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1241067995544482682, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241067197318091153, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=836, endPage=842, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1241067203794105240, articleId=1241067203399840654, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Time series analysis of the impact of temperature on stroke mortality in Wuhan city, columnId=1228016570660745413, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Environmental and Occupational Health, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To analyze the impact of temperature on stroke mortality among residents in Wuhan city.

Methods

Stroke mortality data, meteorological data, and environmental monitoring data from 2014 to 2019 in Wuhan were collected. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to assess the impact of temperature on stroke mortality. Stratified analyses were conducted based on gender and age to identify vulnerable populations.

Results

The temperature-stroke mortality relationship in Wuhan exhibited an inverted “J” shape. High temperatures (P97.5=32 °C) had the strongest immediate effect on stroke mortality on the same day, with the cumulative effect peaking on the 14th day (relative risk [RR]=1.410, 95%CI: 1.219-1.630 compared to the minimum mortality temperature [MMT]). Low temperatures (P2.5=1 °C) showed a delayed effect, beginning on the second day after exposure and reaching the maximum cumulative effect on the 21st day (RR=1.553, 95%CI:1.161-2.079). Stratified analysis revealed that the cumulative effect of low temperatures on stroke mortality was the highest on the 21st day for males (RR=1.786, 95%CI: 1.195-2.670), on the 7th day for individuals aged <65 years (RR=1.607, 95%CI:1.151-2.243), and on the 14th day for those aged ≥65 years (RR=1.627, 95%CI: 1.251-2.116). For high temperatures, the cumulative effect peaked on the 14th day for males (RR=1.347, 95%CI: 1.104-1.645), individuals aged <65 years (RR=1.559,95%CI: 1.117-2.176), and those aged ≥65 years (RR=1.401, 95%CI: 1.204-1.631), while for females, it peaked on the 21st day (RR=1.507, 95%CI: 1.188-1.912).

Conclusion

Both low and high temperatures can increase the risk of stroke mortality. High temperatures exhibit a more acute effect, while low temperatures show significant delayed and cumulative effects. Females andindividuals aged <65 years are at higher risk of stroke mortality under high temperatures, whereas males and those aged ≥65 years are more vulnerable under low temperatures. Protective measures should be strengthened for these high-risk populations.

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目的

分析气温因素对武汉市居民脑卒中死亡的影响。

方法

收集2014—2019年武汉市居民脑卒中死亡数据、同期气象和环保监测数据，利用分布滞后非线性模型分析气温对脑卒中死亡的影响，并根据性别、年龄特征开展分层分析，识别敏感人群。

结果

武汉市气温对脑卒中死亡效应曲线呈反“J”形。高温（P97.5=32 ℃）对脑卒中死亡的影响在当日最强，在第14 d的累积效应达到最大[相比于最小死亡气温（MMT），高温时，脑卒中死亡的相对危险度（RR）=1.410（95%CI：1.219～1.630）。低温（P2.5=1 ℃）对脑卒中死亡的影响存在滞后效应，在暴露后的第2 d开始出现效应,在第21 d的累积效应达到最大（RR=1.553，95%CI：1.161～2.079）。分层分析结果显示，低温对男性脑卒中死亡影响的累积效应在暴露后的第21 d达到最大（RR=1.786，95%CI：1.195～2.670），对<65岁人群的累积效应在暴露后的第7 d达到最大（RR= 1.607，95%CI：1.151～2.243），对≥65岁人群的累积效应在暴露后的第14 d达到最大（RR=1.627，95%CI：1.251～2.116）；高温对男性（RR=1.347，95%CI：1.104～1.645）、<65岁（RR=1.559，95%CI：1.117～2.176）与≥65岁（RR= 1.401，95%CI：1.204～1.631）人群脑卒中死亡影响的累积效应在暴露后的第14 d达到最大，对女性的累积效应在暴露后的第21 d达到最大（RR=1.507，95%CI：1.188～1.912）。

结论

低温与高温均能导致脑卒中死亡风险升高，高温影响有较明显的急性效应，低温影响则存在明显的滞后与累积效应。女性、<65岁人群在高温环境下发生脑卒中死亡的风险更高；男性、≥65岁人群在低温环境下发生脑卒中死亡的风险更高，应加强高危人群的防护。

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代娟，E-mail:
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游丽（1998—），女，本科，医师，研究方向：疾病预防与控制

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Correlation of meteorological elements with the occurrence of stroke events in the population of Dali[D]. Dali: Dali University, 2021.(In Chinese), articleTitle=Correlation of meteorological elements with the occurrence of stroke events in the population of Dali, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1241067217408815649, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067203399840654, awardId=WX23Z95, language=CN, fundingSource=武汉市卫健委、武汉市科技局健康发展项目(WX23Z95), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1241067208172957801, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067203399840654, xref=1., ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241067208181346410, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067203399840654, companyId=1241067208172957801, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Department of Infectious Disease Control, Jianghan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, Hubei 430021,China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241067208189735019, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067203399840654, companyId=1241067208172957801, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1.武汉市江汉区疾病预防控制中心传染病防制科，湖北 武汉 430021)]), AuthorCompany(id=1241067208286204025, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067203399840654, xref=2., ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241067208298786937, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067203399840654, companyId=1241067208286204025, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2.武汉现场流行病学培训项目，湖北 武汉 430024)]), AuthorCompany(id=1241067208416227461, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067203399840654, xref=3., ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241067208428810374, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067203399840654, companyId=1241067208416227461, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=3.武汉市疾病预防控制中心慢性病防制所，湖北 武汉 430024)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1241067211910082918, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067203399840654, language=EN, label=Figure 1, caption=The 3D graph of the effect of daily mean temperature on stroke mortality in Wuhan, 2014—2019, figureFileSmall=hI8jMkaDB15woHanHI6E+Q==, figureFileBig=dm7e4veXoUCrZ/8yEb1dVQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241067215533961597, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067203399840654, language=CN, label=图1, caption=2014—2019年武汉市日均气温对居民脑卒中死亡影响的3D图

注：A表示脑卒中死亡；B表示出血性脑卒中死亡；C表示缺血性脑卒中死亡。

, figureFileSmall=hI8jMkaDB15woHanHI6E+Q==, figureFileBig=dm7e4veXoUCrZ/8yEb1dVQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241067215852728730, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067203399840654, language=EN, label=Figure 2, caption=The lagged effect of low and high temperature on stroke mortality in Wuhan residents, figureFileSmall=Ntn5tZgq5g4VHyu4RWLWqA==, figureFileBig=zacMa0uGj+GLhuWl4R7ENw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241067216003723687, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067203399840654, language=CN, label=图2, caption=低温与高温对武汉市居民脑卒中死亡影响的滞后效应

注：图A表示低温情况下脑卒中死亡；图B表示高温情况下脑卒中死亡；图C表示低温情况下出血性脑卒中死亡；图D表示高温情况下出血性脑卒中死亡；图E表示低温情况下缺血性脑卒中死亡；图F表示高温情况下缺血性脑卒中死亡；脑卒中、出血性脑卒中与缺血性脑卒中最小死亡气温（MMT）分别为23 ℃、22 ℃与23.5 ℃。

, figureFileSmall=Ntn5tZgq5g4VHyu4RWLWqA==, figureFileBig=zacMa0uGj+GLhuWl4R7ENw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241067216121164210, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067203399840654, language=EN, label=Figure 3, caption=Cumulative exposure response curve of daily mean temperature on stroke mortality, figureFileSmall=iPpAS0BMfoYohqIlIqZLbQ==, figureFileBig=o7vOfX90OSzNQI42vxu9Lg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241067216267964861, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067203399840654, language=CN, label=图3, caption=日均气温对脑卒中死亡影响的累积暴露反应曲线

注：A表示脑卒中死亡；B表示出血性脑卒中死亡；C表示缺血性脑卒中死亡。

, figureFileSmall=iPpAS0BMfoYohqIlIqZLbQ==, figureFileBig=o7vOfX90OSzNQI42vxu9Lg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241067216410571207, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067203399840654, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Descriptive analysis of daily stroke deaths, meteorological factors, and air pollutants in Wuhan, 2014—2019

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量均值标准差最小值P25P50P75最大值
每日脑卒中死亡人数22.636.566.0018.0022.0027.0049.00
男性12.154.281.009.0012.0015.0029.00
女性10.483.851.008.0010.0013.0025.00
<65岁4.622.270.003.004.006.0014.00
≥65岁18.015.754.0014.0017.0022.0040.00
出血性脑卒中11.864.141.009.0011.0014.0031.00
缺血性脑卒中8.003.320.006.008.0010.0022.00
气象因素
平均温度（℃）17.199.16-3.809.1018.2024.9033.90
平均相对湿度（%）79.4210.2741.0073.0080.0087.00100.00
平均大气压（hPa）1 013.149.42993.501 005.001 013.101 020.501 043.00
平均风速（m/s）1.620.940.000.901.402.106.90
大气污染物
PM2.5(μg/m3)58.9840.110.0031.0048.6075.30301.00
PM10(μg/m3)90.9150.670.0053.0082.00118.00532.00
SO2(μg/m3)12.9710.350.006.0010.0016.00102.00
NO2(μg/m3)48.5820.570.0033.0045.0061.00126.00
CO(mg/m3)1.040.330.360.801.001.202.60
O3(μg/m3)89.0849.140.0050.0082.00123.00262.00
), ArticleFig(id=1241067216532206029, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067203399840654, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

2014—2019年武汉市每日脑卒中死亡人数、气象因素与大气污染物的描述性统计分析

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量均值标准差最小值P25P50P75最大值
每日脑卒中死亡人数22.636.566.0018.0022.0027.0049.00
男性12.154.281.009.0012.0015.0029.00
女性10.483.851.008.0010.0013.0025.00
<65岁4.622.270.003.004.006.0014.00
≥65岁18.015.754.0014.0017.0022.0040.00
出血性脑卒中11.864.141.009.0011.0014.0031.00
缺血性脑卒中8.003.320.006.008.0010.0022.00
气象因素
平均温度（℃）17.199.16-3.809.1018.2024.9033.90
平均相对湿度（%）79.4210.2741.0073.0080.0087.00100.00
平均大气压（hPa）1 013.149.42993.501 005.001 013.101 020.501 043.00
平均风速（m/s）1.620.940.000.901.402.106.90
大气污染物
PM2.5(μg/m3)58.9840.110.0031.0048.6075.30301.00
PM10(μg/m3)90.9150.670.0053.0082.00118.00532.00
SO2(μg/m3)12.9710.350.006.0010.0016.00102.00
NO2(μg/m3)48.5820.570.0033.0045.0061.00126.00
CO(mg/m3)1.040.330.360.801.001.202.60
O3(μg/m3)89.0849.140.0050.0082.00123.00262.00
), ArticleFig(id=1241067216653840857, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067203399840654, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Correlation analysis of daily mortality of stroke with meteorological factors and air pollutants in Wuhan, 2014—2019

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量平均温度
（℃）		平均相对湿度
（%）		平均气压
（hPa）		平均风速
（m/s）		PM2.5
(μg/m3)		PM10
(μg/m3)		SO2
(μg/m3)		NO2
(μg/m3)		CO
(mg/m3)		O3
(μg/m3)
平均温度
（℃）		1.000—————————
平均相对湿
度（%）		-0.117a1.000————————
平均气压
（hPa）		-0.912b-0.0371.000———————
平均风速
（m/s）		0.043b-0.077b-0.072b1.000——————
PM2.5(μg/m3)-0.522b-0.072b0.484b-0.280b1.000—————
PM10(μg/m3)-0.258b-0.348b0.289b-0.350b0.841b1.000————
SO2(μg/m3)-0.364b-0.358b0.405b-0.309b0.677b0.734b1.000———
NO2(μg/m3)-0.377b-0.143b0.373b-0.600b0.696b0.764b0.707b1.000——
CO(mg/m3)-0.375b0.162b0.299b-0.300b0.689b0.537b0.464b0.610b1.000—
O3(μg/m3)0.662b-0.447b-0.539b-0.111b-0.221b0.063b-0.062b-0.072b-0.257b1.000
脑卒中日
死亡人数		-0.516b
-0.0160.475b0.0000.361b0.225b0.234b0.231b0.260b-0.360b
), ArticleFig(id=1241067216754504166, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067203399840654, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

2014—2019年武汉市脑卒中日死亡人数与气象因素及大气污染物的相关性分析结果

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量平均温度
（℃）		平均相对湿度
（%）		平均气压
（hPa）		平均风速
（m/s）		PM2.5
(μg/m3)		PM10
(μg/m3)		SO2
(μg/m3)		NO2
(μg/m3)		CO
(mg/m3)		O3
(μg/m3)
平均温度
（℃）		1.000—————————
平均相对湿
度（%）		-0.117a1.000————————
平均气压
（hPa）		-0.912b-0.0371.000———————
平均风速
（m/s）		0.043b-0.077b-0.072b1.000——————
PM2.5(μg/m3)-0.522b-0.072b0.484b-0.280b1.000—————
PM10(μg/m3)-0.258b-0.348b0.289b-0.350b0.841b1.000————
SO2(μg/m3)-0.364b-0.358b0.405b-0.309b0.677b0.734b1.000———
NO2(μg/m3)-0.377b-0.143b0.373b-0.600b0.696b0.764b0.707b1.000——
CO(mg/m3)-0.375b0.162b0.299b-0.300b0.689b0.537b0.464b0.610b1.000—
O3(μg/m3)0.662b-0.447b-0.539b-0.111b-0.221b0.063b-0.062b-0.072b-0.257b1.000
脑卒中日
死亡人数		-0.516b
-0.0160.475b0.0000.361b0.225b0.234b0.231b0.260b-0.360b
), ArticleFig(id=1241067216871944691, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067203399840654, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Cumulative effect of low and high temperature on stroke mortality in Wuhan residents [RR (95%CI)]

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
气温滞后期（d）脑卒中死亡出血性脑卒中死亡缺血性脑卒中死亡
低温Lag00.989（0.942～1.038）1.024（0.960～1.093）0.951（0.877～1.031）
Lag0～10.996（0.917～1.083）1.053（0.942～1.177）0.932（0.812～1.070）
Lag0～31.066（0.945～1.202）1.126（0.959～1.321）0.974（0.797～1.190）
Lag0～71.339（1.141～1.571）a1.301（1.053～1.607）a1.257（0.961～1.645）
Lag0～141.544（1.234～1.931）a1.374（1.023～1.844）a1.598（1.094～2.334）a
Lag0～211.553（1.161～2.079）a1.423（0.969～2.089）1.559（0.952～2.552）
高温Lag01.149（1.103～1.197）a1.120（1.057～1.187）a1.166（1.091～1.246）a
Lag0～11.265（1.181～1.354）a1.209（1.097～1.332）a1.302（1.166～1.453）a
Lag0～31.365（1.246～1.495）a1.274（1.118～1.452）a1.444（1.248～1.672）a
Lag0～71.282（1.153～1.427）a1.180（1.010～1.379）a1.427（1.204～1.691）a
Lag0～141.410（1.219～1.630）a1.271（1.026～1.575）a1.670（1.328～2.099）a
Lag0～211.378（1.157～1.640）a1.266（0.975～1.645）1.659（1.262～2.180）a
), ArticleFig(id=1241067217010356733, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067203399840654, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

低温与高温对武汉市居民脑卒中死亡影响的累积效应[RR（95%CI）]

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
气温滞后期（d）脑卒中死亡出血性脑卒中死亡缺血性脑卒中死亡
低温Lag00.989（0.942～1.038）1.024（0.960～1.093）0.951（0.877～1.031）
Lag0～10.996（0.917～1.083）1.053（0.942～1.177）0.932（0.812～1.070）
Lag0～31.066（0.945～1.202）1.126（0.959～1.321）0.974（0.797～1.190）
Lag0～71.339（1.141～1.571）a1.301（1.053～1.607）a1.257（0.961～1.645）
Lag0～141.544（1.234～1.931）a1.374（1.023～1.844）a1.598（1.094～2.334）a
Lag0～211.553（1.161～2.079）a1.423（0.969～2.089）1.559（0.952～2.552）
高温Lag01.149（1.103～1.197）a1.120（1.057～1.187）a1.166（1.091～1.246）a
Lag0～11.265（1.181～1.354）a1.209（1.097～1.332）a1.302（1.166～1.453）a
Lag0～31.365（1.246～1.495）a1.274（1.118～1.452）a1.444（1.248～1.672）a
Lag0～71.282（1.153～1.427）a1.180（1.010～1.379）a1.427（1.204～1.691）a
Lag0～141.410（1.219～1.630）a1.271（1.026～1.575）a1.670（1.328～2.099）a
Lag0～211.378（1.157～1.640）a1.266（0.975～1.645）1.659（1.262～2.180）a
), ArticleFig(id=1241067217106825737, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067203399840654, language=EN, label=Table 4, caption=

Effects of low and high temperature on stroke mortality in different gender and age groups in Wuhan [RR (95%CI)]

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
气温滞后期（d）性别年龄
男女<65岁≥65岁
低温Lag01.040（0.973～1.111）0.932（0.869～1.000）1.070（0.966～1.184）0.967（0.914～1.023）
Lag0～11.089（0.972～1.221）0.899（0.797～1.014）1.150（0.966～1.369）0.959（0.871～1.056）
Lag0～31.217（1.032～1.436）a0.916（0.770～1.090）1.338（1.040～1.722）a1.010（0.879～1.161）
Lag0～71.537（1.233～1.916）a1.156（0.917～1.457）1.607（1.151～2.243）a1.311（1.088～1.579）a
Lag0～141.764（1.296～2.402）a1.343（0.971～1.859）1.362（0.856～2.168）1.627（1.251～2.116）a
Lag0～211.786（1.195～2.670）a1.327（0.869～2.025）1.758（0.961～3.216）1.509（1.072～2.126）a
高温Lag01.112（1.051～1.177）a1.191（1.124～1.262）a1.136（1.038～1.242）a1.151（1.100～1.204）a
Lag0～11.197（1.090～1.315）a1.344（1.221～1.479）a1.248（1.074～1.450）a1.269（1.177～1.367）a
Lag0～31.270（1.120～1.440）a1.483（1.306～1.684）a1.380（1.126～1.690）a1.370（1.241～1.512）a
Lag0～71.218（1.052～1.411）a1.372（1.184～1.590）a1.411（1.107～1.798）a1.282（1.145～1.435）a
Lag0～141.347（1.104～1.645）a1.498（1.226～1.830）a1.559（1.117～2.176）a1.401（1.204～1.631）a
Lag0～211.269（0.999～1.612）1.507（1.188～1.912）a1.446（0.961～2.175）1.364（1.141～1.630）a
), ArticleFig(id=1241067217241043473, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067203399840654, language=CN, label=表4, caption=

低温与高温对武汉市不同性别与年龄居民脑卒中死亡影响[RR（95%CI）]

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
气温滞后期（d）性别年龄
男女<65岁≥65岁
低温Lag01.040（0.973～1.111）0.932（0.869～1.000）1.070（0.966～1.184）0.967（0.914～1.023）
Lag0～11.089（0.972～1.221）0.899（0.797～1.014）1.150（0.966～1.369）0.959（0.871～1.056）
Lag0～31.217（1.032～1.436）a0.916（0.770～1.090）1.338（1.040～1.722）a1.010（0.879～1.161）
Lag0～71.537（1.233～1.916）a1.156（0.917～1.457）1.607（1.151～2.243）a1.311（1.088～1.579）a
Lag0～141.764（1.296～2.402）a1.343（0.971～1.859）1.362（0.856～2.168）1.627（1.251～2.116）a
Lag0～211.786（1.195～2.670）a1.327（0.869～2.025）1.758（0.961～3.216）1.509（1.072～2.126）a
高温Lag01.112（1.051～1.177）a1.191（1.124～1.262）a1.136（1.038～1.242）a1.151（1.100～1.204）a
Lag0～11.197（1.090～1.315）a1.344（1.221～1.479）a1.248（1.074～1.450）a1.269（1.177～1.367）a
Lag0～31.270（1.120～1.440）a1.483（1.306～1.684）a1.380（1.126～1.690）a1.370（1.241～1.512）a
Lag0～71.218（1.052～1.411）a1.372（1.184～1.590）a1.411（1.107～1.798）a1.282（1.145～1.435）a
Lag0～141.347（1.104～1.645）a1.498（1.226～1.830）a1.559（1.117～2.176）a1.401（1.204～1.631）a
Lag0～211.269（0.999～1.612）1.507（1.188～1.912）a1.446（0.961～2.175）1.364（1.141～1.630）a
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气温对武汉市脑卒中死亡影响的时间序列分析
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游丽 1, 2 , 代娟 3
现代预防医学 | 环境与职业卫生 2025,52(5): 836-842
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现代预防医学 | 环境与职业卫生 2025, 52(5): 836-842
气温对武汉市脑卒中死亡影响的时间序列分析
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游丽1, 2, 代娟3
作者信息
  • 1.武汉市江汉区疾病预防控制中心传染病防制科，湖北 武汉 430021
  • 2.武汉现场流行病学培训项目，湖北 武汉 430024
  • 3.武汉市疾病预防控制中心慢性病防制所，湖北 武汉 430024

    • 游丽（1998—），女，本科，医师，研究方向：疾病预防与控制

通讯作者:

代娟，E-mail:
Time series analysis of the impact of temperature on stroke mortality in Wuhan city
Li YOU1, 2, Juan DAI3
Affiliations
  • Department of Infectious Disease Control, Jianghan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, Hubei 430021,China
出版时间: 2025-03-10 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202409142
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摘要
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目的

分析气温因素对武汉市居民脑卒中死亡的影响。

方法

收集2014—2019年武汉市居民脑卒中死亡数据、同期气象和环保监测数据，利用分布滞后非线性模型分析气温对脑卒中死亡的影响，并根据性别、年龄特征开展分层分析，识别敏感人群。

结果

武汉市气温对脑卒中死亡效应曲线呈反“J”形。高温（P97.5=32 ℃）对脑卒中死亡的影响在当日最强，在第14 d的累积效应达到最大[相比于最小死亡气温（MMT），高温时，脑卒中死亡的相对危险度（RR）=1.410（95%CI：1.219～1.630）。低温（P2.5=1 ℃）对脑卒中死亡的影响存在滞后效应，在暴露后的第2 d开始出现效应,在第21 d的累积效应达到最大（RR=1.553，95%CI：1.161～2.079）。分层分析结果显示，低温对男性脑卒中死亡影响的累积效应在暴露后的第21 d达到最大（RR=1.786，95%CI：1.195～2.670），对<65岁人群的累积效应在暴露后的第7 d达到最大（RR= 1.607，95%CI：1.151～2.243），对≥65岁人群的累积效应在暴露后的第14 d达到最大（RR=1.627，95%CI：1.251～2.116）；高温对男性（RR=1.347，95%CI：1.104～1.645）、<65岁（RR=1.559，95%CI：1.117～2.176）与≥65岁（RR= 1.401，95%CI：1.204～1.631）人群脑卒中死亡影响的累积效应在暴露后的第14 d达到最大，对女性的累积效应在暴露后的第21 d达到最大（RR=1.507，95%CI：1.188～1.912）。

结论

低温与高温均能导致脑卒中死亡风险升高，高温影响有较明显的急性效应，低温影响则存在明显的滞后与累积效应。女性、<65岁人群在高温环境下发生脑卒中死亡的风险更高；男性、≥65岁人群在低温环境下发生脑卒中死亡的风险更高，应加强高危人群的防护。

脑卒中  /  气温  /  死亡  /  分布滞后非线性模型
Objective

To analyze the impact of temperature on stroke mortality among residents in Wuhan city.

Methods

Stroke mortality data, meteorological data, and environmental monitoring data from 2014 to 2019 in Wuhan were collected. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) was used to assess the impact of temperature on stroke mortality. Stratified analyses were conducted based on gender and age to identify vulnerable populations.

Results

The temperature-stroke mortality relationship in Wuhan exhibited an inverted “J” shape. High temperatures (P97.5=32 °C) had the strongest immediate effect on stroke mortality on the same day, with the cumulative effect peaking on the 14th day (relative risk [RR]=1.410, 95%CI: 1.219-1.630 compared to the minimum mortality temperature [MMT]). Low temperatures (P2.5=1 °C) showed a delayed effect, beginning on the second day after exposure and reaching the maximum cumulative effect on the 21st day (RR=1.553, 95%CI:1.161-2.079). Stratified analysis revealed that the cumulative effect of low temperatures on stroke mortality was the highest on the 21st day for males (RR=1.786, 95%CI: 1.195-2.670), on the 7th day for individuals aged <65 years (RR=1.607, 95%CI:1.151-2.243), and on the 14th day for those aged ≥65 years (RR=1.627, 95%CI: 1.251-2.116). For high temperatures, the cumulative effect peaked on the 14th day for males (RR=1.347, 95%CI: 1.104-1.645), individuals aged <65 years (RR=1.559,95%CI: 1.117-2.176), and those aged ≥65 years (RR=1.401, 95%CI: 1.204-1.631), while for females, it peaked on the 21st day (RR=1.507, 95%CI: 1.188-1.912).

Conclusion

Both low and high temperatures can increase the risk of stroke mortality. High temperatures exhibit a more acute effect, while low temperatures show significant delayed and cumulative effects. Females andindividuals aged <65 years are at higher risk of stroke mortality under high temperatures, whereas males and those aged ≥65 years are more vulnerable under low temperatures. Protective measures should be strengthened for these high-risk populations.

Stroke  /  Temperature  /  Mortality  /  Distributed lag nonlinear model
游丽, 代娟. 气温对武汉市脑卒中死亡影响的时间序列分析. 现代预防医学, 2025 , 52 (5) : 836 -842 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202409142
Li YOU, Juan DAI. Time series analysis of the impact of temperature on stroke mortality in Wuhan city[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2025 , 52 (5) : 836 -842 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202409142
正文
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脑卒中（stroke）是一种包括缺血性脑卒中和出血性脑卒中在内的急性脑血管疾病，是导致我国成人致死、致残的首位病因，对我国居民的身心健康危害极大，其有着高发病率、高复发率、高致残率、高死亡率等的特点[1-3]。一项综述研究结果显示，2013—2017年中国脑卒中死亡率总体呈下降趋势，流行特征主要为发病年轻化，男性发病率、患病率及死亡率均高于女性[4]。有研究发现，气温的变化会对脑卒中死亡的发生产生一定的影响，大部分研究表明气温-死亡关系曲线通常呈“U”、“V”、或“J”形，气象因素对健康产生的影响具有持续性和滞后性的特点[5-7]。武汉地区脑卒中对居民健康造成严重危害，既往相关研究多集中在武汉市某个区[8]。为全面了解气象因素对武汉市脑卒中死亡的影响，本研究利用2014—2019年武汉市居民脑卒中死亡数据，结合同期气象和环保监测数据，构建气温与脑卒中死亡数据的分布滞后非线性模型，分析气温因素对脑卒中死亡的影响，并根据年龄、性别分层，识别敏感人群，为武汉市有关部门开展脑卒中针对性防护措施提供科学依据。
1　资料与方法
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1.1　资料收集
脑卒中死亡数据来自武汉市死因监测管理系统，统计时间段为2014—2019年，采用国际疾病分类第10版（The International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th Revision，ICD-10）进行编码。I60-I64代表脑卒中，其中I60-I62代表出血性脑卒中，I63代表缺血性脑卒中。气象数据主要包括均温、最高温、最低温、气压、相对湿度、风速等，来源于武汉市气象局；环保数据主要包括每日PM2.5、PM10、SO2、NO、CO、O3等，来源于武汉市环保局。在气象和环保数据中出现的缺失值，利用缺失值填补法，即缺失数据日期前后两天数值的中位数进行填补[9]，填补比例分别为0.13%、0.53%。
1.2　分析方法
采用最小值、最大值、四分位数、均数、标准差等指标描述武汉市居民脑卒中死亡数据、武汉市气象与环保数据的基本情况。使用Spearman秩相关分析方法，对脑卒中死亡数据、气象及环保数据的相关性进行分析。构建分布滞后非线性模型，利用模型结果分析日均气温对武汉市居民脑卒中死亡的影响[10]。
根据Spearman相关性检验的结果和既往相关研究，结合实际意义综合考虑，建立日均气温与滞后天数的交叉基函数[11]。为避免多重共线性对结果的影响，将与气温相关系数小于0.5的其他因素作为混杂因素纳入模型[12]。同时控制时间效应、星期几效应等混杂因素。采用准泊松分布作为连接函数拟合气象因素与脑卒中日死亡数据的模型[13]。最终可得模型为：
公式中，μt为观察日t的居民脑卒中死亡人数，α为截距，Tempt.l为日均气温与滞后时间的交叉基，ns为自然立方样条函数，time为观察日t的时间变量，Z为观察日t可能对脑卒中死亡产生影响的平均相对湿度等气象因素，pollu为观察日t可能对脑卒中死亡产生影响的SO2等大气污染物浓度，Dow为星期几变量。
参考既往研究[6,14]，本研究将气温最大滞后天数设定为21 d。依据准赤池信息准则（Quasi-Akaike information criterion，QAIC）最小原则，将交叉基中气温与滞后的自由度均设定为5。同时将气象因素及大气污染物等的自由度均设定为3，将时间变量的自由度设定为7/年。
本研究定义日均气温的P2.5（1 ℃）与P97.5（32 ℃）分别代表低温与高温，以累积死亡效应最小的暴露气温，即最小死亡气温（minimum mortality temperature，MMT）为参照水平，分析低温与高温对脑卒中死亡风险的相对危险度。同时，计算滞后0 d、滞后0～3 d、0～7 d、0～14 d、0～21 d的累积效应值。根据性别、年龄（分为<65岁与≥65岁）对居民脑卒中死亡进行分层，比较不同人群的相对危险度差异，识别敏感人群[6]。
1.3　统计学分析
本研究为检验所建立模型的稳健性，通过改变最大滞后天数（14、21、28）、时间自由度（6、7、8）来进行敏感性分析。采用SPSS 25.0软件进行描述性统计分析，利用R 4.2.3中的“dlnm”、“splines”等程序包进行函数计算，构建分布滞后非线性模型，双侧检验水准α=0.05。
2　结果
收起
2.1　基本情况
2014—2019年武汉市居民脑卒中死亡总数有49 590例，其中，男性有26 618例，占53.68%，女性有22 972例，占46.32%；<65岁年龄组有10 123例，占20.41%，≥65岁年龄组的有39 467例，占79.59%。脑卒中死亡人群中出血性脑卒中有25 980例，缺血性脑卒中有17 537例，分别占脑卒中死亡总数的52.39%和35.36%。6年里武汉市日均气温17.19 ℃，日均气温范围为-3.80～33.90 ℃，P50为18.20 ℃。见表1。
2.2　脑卒中死亡与气象因素及大气污染物的关联
Spearman秩相关分析结果显示，武汉市居民脑卒中死亡与气温（rs=-0.516）、O3（rs=-0.360）呈负相关，与气压（rs=0.475）、PM2.5（rs=0.361）、PM10（rs=0.225）、SO2（rs=0.234）、NO2（rs=0.231）、CO（rs=0.260）均呈正相关。见表2。
2.3　气温影响的滞后特征分析
三维关联图显示，高温与低温均导致脑卒中、出血性脑卒中与缺血性脑卒中死亡风险升高，其中高温的影响是急性的，在当日效应最强，其对脑卒中、缺血性脑卒中死亡的影响持续至暴露后的第3 d，对出血性脑卒中的影响持续至暴露后的第2 d。低温的影响存在明显的滞后效应，其对脑卒中死亡的影响在暴露后的第2 d开始出现，持续至暴露后的第10 d；其对出血性脑卒中死亡的影响在暴露后的第3 d开始出现，持续至暴露后的第8 d；其对缺血性脑卒中死亡的影响在暴露后的第4 d开始出现，持续至暴露后的第9 d。见图1、2。
2.4　气温影响的累积效应分析
低温对脑卒中死亡影响的累积效应在暴露后的第21 d达到最大，其对出血性脑卒中和缺血性脑卒中死亡影响的累积效应均在暴露后的第14 d达到最大；高温对脑卒中死亡与缺血性脑卒中死亡影响的累积效应在暴露后的第14 d达到最大，其对出血性脑卒中死亡影响的累积效应在暴露后的第3 d达到最大，见表3。由图3可知，武汉市气温对脑卒中死亡效应曲线呈反“J”形，脑卒中、出血性脑卒中与缺血性脑卒中最小死亡气温（MMT）分别为23 ℃、22 ℃、23.5 ℃，低温对脑卒中与出血性脑卒中死亡影响的累积效应比高温强，高温对缺血性脑卒中死亡影响的累积效应比低温强。
2.5　气温对不同性别和年龄组居民脑卒中死亡的影响
低温对男性脑卒中死亡影响的累积效应在暴露后的第21 d达到最大，在女性中，低温效应无统计学意义；在<65岁人群中，低温影响的累积效应在暴露后的第7 d达到最大，而在≥65岁人群中，累积效应在暴露后的第14 d达到最大。高温对男性、<65岁与≥65岁人群脑卒中死亡影响的累积效应均在暴露后的第14 d达到最大，对女性脑卒中死亡影响的累积效应在暴露后的第21 d达到最大。高温对女性脑卒中死亡影响的累积效应高于男性，对<65岁人群，高温对脑卒中死亡的影响大于≥65岁人群；低温对≥65岁人群脑卒中死亡的影响大于<65岁人群。男性、<65岁与≥65岁人群对低温的敏感性均高于高温，差异有统计学意义。见表4。
2.6　敏感性分析
为判断模型稳健性，调整已建立模型中最大滞后天数和时间自由度后，分别计算低温效应和高温效应，研究结果无明显变化，可认为结果具有稳健性。
3　讨论
收起
本研究发现日均气温与武汉市居民脑卒中死亡数据累积暴露反应图呈反“J”形，与既往相关研究一致[8]。本研究进一步分析低温（P2.5=1 ℃）与高温（P97.5= 32 ℃）的影响，结果表明，高温与低温均对武汉市居民脑卒中死亡的发生有一定的推动作用，其中，高温影响是急性的，低温影响则存在一定的滞后效应，与既往相关研究结果相符[5]。高温对脑卒中死亡的影响在当日最强，而低温的影响在暴露后的第2 d开始出现，持续至暴露后的第10 d，存在明显的滞后效应。与其他城市的相关研究在滞后时间上存在一定的差异[6,15-16]。气温对脑卒中死亡的影响有地区差异性，可能与不同地区气象条件、空气污染物水平、经济发展情况等因素相关[15]。研究发现低温对脑卒中与出血性脑卒中的影响高于高温，而高温对缺血性脑卒中的影响高于低温。与南昌市一项关于气温对脑卒中患者入院风险影响研究结果一致[17]。低温能增加脑卒中死亡的风险，可能是由于低温会导致血管收缩相关分子，包括肾上腺素等分泌增多，血管舒张因子分泌减少，同时激活L型钙通道与氧化应激，从而使血压升高，影响脑卒中的发展[18]。而高温引起人体脱水，增加血液粘稠度，导致血浆容量减少，引发血压下降，从而导致脑卒中不良意外的发生[18-19]。
本研究进一步开展性别与年龄分层分析，结果显示，高温与低温均对男性脑卒中死亡有影响，且对低温的敏感性高于高温；而高温对女性脑卒中死亡有影响，且高温对女性脑卒中死亡的影响高于男性。合肥市一项关于气温对居民非意外死亡的研究也得出相同的结果[16]。男性群体风险较高可能是因为男性人群基数大，且男性比女性更易有不良的生活习惯，如吸烟等[17]，由于社会角色及性格等特质不同，女性可能对高温天气更加敏感，而男性则更容易暴露于低温环境中[16,20]。
本研究还发现，高温与低温对全年龄段人群均有影响，其中，高温对<65岁人群脑卒中死亡的影响大于≥65岁人群，低温对≥65岁人群脑卒中死亡的影响大于<65岁人群。既往相关研究多得出≥65岁人群风险大于<65岁人群风险的结论[14,21]。老年人身体机能随着年龄的增长不断减退，调节系统反应较慢，对温度变化可能更加敏感[22-24]。而脑卒中发病逐渐年轻化[4]，中青年人群由于社会分工及角色特性的不同，与老年人相比更加容易暴露于高温环境中[25]。
综上所述，日均气温与武汉市居民脑卒中死亡之间呈非线性关系，累积暴露反应图呈反“J”形。低温与高温均能导致脑卒中死亡风险升高，高温的影响较急促，且有一定的累积效应，低温的影响有明显的滞后与累积效应。女性、<65岁人群在高温环境下发生脑卒中死亡的风险更高；男性、≥65岁人群在低温环境下发生脑卒中死亡的风险更高。在特殊天气条件下，要做好相关的风险提示，提醒相关人员关注天气的变化并做好防护。
基金
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  • 武汉市卫健委、武汉市科技局健康发展项目(WX23Z95)
文献
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2025年第52卷第5期
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202409142
  • 接收时间：2024-09-10
  • 首发时间：2026-03-18
  • 出版时间：2025-03-10
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  • 收稿日期：2024-09-10
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武汉市卫健委、武汉市科技局健康发展项目(WX23Z95)
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    1.武汉市江汉区疾病预防控制中心传染病防制科，湖北 武汉 430021
    2.武汉现场流行病学培训项目，湖北 武汉 430024
    3.武汉市疾病预防控制中心慢性病防制所，湖北 武汉 430024

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
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Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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