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Article(id=1241067201063604644, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241067197318091153, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202408296, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1723910400000, receivedDateStr=2024-08-18, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773823078646, onlineDateStr=2026-03-18, pubDate=1741536000000, pubDateStr=2025-03-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773823078646, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-18, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773823078646, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773823078646, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1241067197318091153, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2025', volume='52', issue='5', pageStart='769', pageEnd='960', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773823077754, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773823268053, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1241067995544482681, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241067197318091153, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1241067995544482682, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241067197318091153, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=818, endPage=825, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1241067204305801750, articleId=1241067201063604644, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Evaluating the impact of the COVID - 19 pandemic and the prevention and control measures on the epidemic trend of hand, foot, and mouth disease using the SARIMA model, columnId=1240413921954295836, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Epidemiology and Statistical Methods, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To explore the impact of the COVID -19 pandemic and the prevention and control measures on the epidemic trend of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Bao’an District, Shenzhen.

Methods

Based on the incidence data of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Bao’an District, Shenzhen from 2014 to 2019 (pre-pandemic) and from 2020 to 2022 (pandemic and “Class A Infectious Disease Management for Class B Infectious Diseases” period), counterfactual models were established respectively using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to predict the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in 2020 to 2023 and 2023 (continuous epidemic and “Class B Infectious Disease Management” stage), followed by comparison with the actual incidence.

Results

Compared with the predicted results, the actual incidence scale of hand, foot, and mouth disease from 2020 to 2022 decreased by 45.29% to 85.71%, and the characteristics of time distribution changed. The incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease rebounded rapidly in 2023, and the annual incidence scale increased by 125.73% compared with the predicted value based on the “Class A Infectious Disease Management for Class B Infectious Diseases” period, but was lower than the predicted value based on the data before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Conclusion

The COVID-19 pandemic and prevention and control measures significantly affected the epidemic trend of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Bao’an District, Shenzhen, reducing the incidence in the short term, but the lack of immune stimulation in the long term may lead to an increase in the incidence. It is recommended to continuously monitor the epidemic trend of hand, foot, and mouth disease, and especially strengthen vaccination when prevention and control measures are relaxed to protect public health.

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目的

探讨新型冠状病毒感染疫情及防控措施对深圳市宝安区手足口病流行趋势的影响。

方法

基于深圳市宝安区2014—2019年（大流行前）及2020—2022年（大流行及“乙类甲管”期）的手足口病发病率数据，利用季节性差分自回归移动平均模型分别建立反事实模型，预测2020—2023年及2023年（持续流行及“乙类乙管”阶段）的手足口病发病率，并与实际发病率比较。

结果

与预测结果相比，2020—2022年的手足口病实际发病规模下降45.29%～85.71%，且时间分布特点发生变化。手足口病发病率在2023年迅速回升，全年发病规模较基于“乙类甲管期”的预测值提升125.73%，但低于基于新冠大流行前数据预测值。

结论

新冠疫情及防控措施显著影响深圳市宝安区手足口病流行趋势，短期内降低发病率，但长期缺乏免疫刺激可能导致发病率上升。建议持续监测手足口病流行趋势，特别是在防控措施放宽时应加强疫苗接种，以保护公众健康。

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张新东，E-mail:
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陈亿雄和任萌为共同第一作者

陈亿雄（1982—），男，硕士，副主任医师，研究方向：传染病防制；

任萌（1994—），女，博士，医师，研究方向：传染病防制；

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陈亿雄（1982—），男，硕士，副主任医师，研究方向：传染病防制；

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陈亿雄（1982—），男，硕士，副主任医师，研究方向：传染病防制；

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任萌（1994—），女，博士，医师，研究方向：传染病防制；

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Fudan University Journal of Medical Sciences, 2020,47(4): 513-520.(In Chinese), articleTitle=A dynamic model of hand,foot and mouth disease under different vaccine coverage conditions in Shanghai and Zhejiang Province, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1241067224492986679, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067201063604644, awardId=2023JD148, language=CN, fundingSource=广东省深圳市宝安区科技创新局资助项目(2023JD148), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1241067224593649980, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067201063604644, awardId=BAYXH2024070, language=CN, fundingSource=广东省深圳市宝安区医学会资助项目(BAYXH2024070), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1241067208353305356, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067201063604644, xref=1., ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241067208365888271, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067201063604644, companyId=1241067208353305356, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Bao’an District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518101, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241067208386859793, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067201063604644, companyId=1241067208353305356, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1.深圳市宝安区疾病预防控制中心，广东 深圳 518101)]), AuthorCompany(id=1241067208487523103, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067201063604644, xref=2., ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241067208491717407, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067201063604644, companyId=1241067208487523103, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2.中山大学公共卫生学院（深圳)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1241067217366864021, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067201063604644, language=EN, label=Figure 1, caption=Annual incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Bao’an district of Shenzhen from 2014 to 2023, figureFileSmall=Ehcy7gxSB5Ils5b2r/BxwQ==, figureFileBig=W1kLc4XQX9UffBkx28xsMQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241067217505276061, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067201063604644, language=CN, label=图1, caption=2014—2023年深圳市宝安区手足口病年发病率, figureFileSmall=Ehcy7gxSB5Ils5b2r/BxwQ==, figureFileBig=W1kLc4XQX9UffBkx28xsMQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241067217777905844, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067201063604644, language=EN, label=Figure 2, caption=Weekly case distribution of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Bao’an district of Shenzhen from 2014 to 2023, figureFileSmall=fTKZsJSALSv1z+36VoT1ew==, figureFileBig=cPoBkbVT4PRTB0UExSdYdw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241067217916317890, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067201063604644, language=CN, label=图2, caption=2014—2023年深圳市宝安区手足口病周发病数分布, figureFileSmall=fTKZsJSALSv1z+36VoT1ew==, figureFileBig=cPoBkbVT4PRTB0UExSdYdw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241067218012786889, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067201063604644, language=EN, label=Figure 3, caption=Decomposition chart of the trend in hand, foot, and mouth disease incidence from 2014 to 2023 in Bao’an district of Shenzhen, figureFileSmall=sT0ATet4PpAhK1lszytZdA==, figureFileBig=KQJSfXUfTxnK1UXD1jJaDA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241067221422756052, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067201063604644, language=CN, label=图3, caption=2014—2023年深圳市宝安区手足口病发病趋势分解图

注：图A为手足口病发病率的时间序列曲线；图B为季节性趋势；图C为长期趋势；图D为残差。

, figureFileSmall=sT0ATet4PpAhK1lszytZdA==, figureFileBig=KQJSfXUfTxnK1UXD1jJaDA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241067221561168091, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067201063604644, language=EN, label=Figure 4, caption=Time series plot, autocorrelation plot, and partial autocorrelation plot of the original data converted from 2014 to 2019, figureFileSmall=xlYW+QYWSGI3A1O2A3lxFw==, figureFileBig=W+PmQAIjEtScMQdkUx0UwA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241067221695385827, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067201063604644, language=CN, label=图4, caption=2014—2019年原始数据转换后的时间序列图、序列的自相关图及偏自相关图

注：图A为原始数据转换后的时间序列图；图B为自相关图；图C为偏自相关图。

, figureFileSmall=xlYW+QYWSGI3A1O2A3lxFw==, figureFileBig=W+PmQAIjEtScMQdkUx0UwA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241067221825409258, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067201063604644, language=EN, label=Figure 5, caption=Comparison of predicted and actual incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Bao’an district of Shenzhen from 2020 to 2023, figureFileSmall=JA3C44LIgZ2czWk4dehnDg==, figureFileBig=l+mvGJD4ukf8qj3hMWLf/Q==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241067221951238386, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067201063604644, language=CN, label=图5, caption=深圳市宝安区2020—2023年手足口病发病率预测值及实际值比较图

注：图A为基于2014—2019年手足口病发病规律预测2020—2023年手足口病发病趋势；图B为2020年手足口病发病率实际值与预测值比较；图C为2021年手足口病发病率实际值与预测值比较；图D为2022年手足口病发病率实际值与预测值比较；图E为2023年手足口病发病率实际值与预测值比较。

, figureFileSmall=JA3C44LIgZ2czWk4dehnDg==, figureFileBig=l+mvGJD4ukf8qj3hMWLf/Q==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241067222127399165, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067201063604644, language=EN, label=Figure 6, caption=Time series plot, autocorrelation plot, and partial autocorrelation plot of the original data converted from 2020 to 2022, figureFileSmall=ta2q2PcDjEv2RAX87MULPg==, figureFileBig=GEeW97L7Ag1HxQt1pn6+Gg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241067222240645380, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067201063604644, language=CN, label=图6, caption=2020—2022年原始数据转换后的时间序列图、序列的自相关图及偏自相关图

注：图A为原始数据转换后的时间序列图；图B为自相关图；图C为偏自相关图。

, figureFileSmall=ta2q2PcDjEv2RAX87MULPg==, figureFileBig=GEeW97L7Ag1HxQt1pn6+Gg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241067222362280205, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067201063604644, language=EN, label=Figure 7, caption=Comparison of predicted and actual incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Bao’an district of Shenzhen in 2023, figureFileSmall=UDBRVo3fE31nu1ggCvutYw==, figureFileBig=mlVOp/uAXjthir11ME9Ggg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241067222462943506, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067201063604644, language=CN, label=图7, caption=深圳市宝安区2023年手足口病发病率预测值及实际值比较图

注：图A为基于2020—2022年手足口病发病规律预测2023年手足口病发病趋势；图B为2023年手足口病发病率实际值与预测值比较。

, figureFileSmall=UDBRVo3fE31nu1ggCvutYw==, figureFileBig=mlVOp/uAXjthir11ME9Ggg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241067222584578328, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067201063604644, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Alternative SARIMA models and model evaluation metrics

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
备选模型AICBICR2RMSEMAE
SARIMA(1,1,2),(2,1,2)521 376.391 404.870.893.262.16
SARIMA(2,1,2),(2,1,2)521 386.021 418.070.893.312.17
SARIMA(1,1,1),(1,1,0)521 454.311 468.550.863.822.43
), ArticleFig(id=1241067224086139169, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067201063604644, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

备选SARIMA模型及模型评价指标

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
备选模型AICBICR2RMSEMAE
SARIMA(1,1,2),(2,1,2)521 376.391 404.870.893.262.16
SARIMA(2,1,2),(2,1,2)521 386.021 418.070.893.312.17
SARIMA(1,1,1),(1,1,0)521 454.311 468.550.863.822.43
), ArticleFig(id=1241067224190996774, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067201063604644, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Alternative SARIMA models and model evaluation metrics

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
备选模型AICBICR2RMSEMAE
SARIMA(1,1,1),(1,1,0)52310.45321.020.870.960.62
SARIMA(2,1,2),(1,1,1)52316.17334.680.870.960.63
SARIMA(1,1,1),(0,1,1)52312.70323.280.860.970.63
), ArticleFig(id=1241067224329408815, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241067201063604644, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

备选SARIMA模型及模型评价指标

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
备选模型AICBICR2RMSEMAE
SARIMA(1,1,1),(1,1,0)52310.45321.020.870.960.62
SARIMA(2,1,2),(1,1,1)52316.17334.680.870.960.63
SARIMA(1,1,1),(0,1,1)52312.70323.280.860.970.63
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应用SARIMA模型评估新型冠状病毒感染疫情及防控措施对手足口病流行趋势的影响
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陈亿雄 1 , 任萌 1 , 张雪 2 , 张晟 1 , 王梓琪 1 , 杜向军 2 , 张新东 1
现代预防医学 | 流行病与统计方法 2025,52(5): 818-825
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现代预防医学 | 流行病与统计方法 2025, 52(5): 818-825
应用SARIMA模型评估新型冠状病毒感染疫情及防控措施对手足口病流行趋势的影响
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陈亿雄1, 任萌1, 张雪2, 张晟1, 王梓琪1, 杜向军2, 张新东1
作者信息
  • 1.深圳市宝安区疾病预防控制中心，广东 深圳 518101
  • 2.中山大学公共卫生学院（深圳

    • 陈亿雄（1982—），男，硕士，副主任医师，研究方向：传染病防制；

    任萌（1994—），女，博士，医师，研究方向：传染病防制；

通讯作者:

张新东，E-mail:
Evaluating the impact of the COVID - 19 pandemic and the prevention and control measures on the epidemic trend of hand, foot, and mouth disease using the SARIMA model
Yi-xiong CHEN1, Meng REN1, Xue ZHANG2, Sheng ZHANG1, Zi-qi WANG1, Xiang-jun DU2, Xin-dong ZHANG1
Affiliations
  • Bao’an District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen, Guangdong 518101, China
出版时间: 2025-03-10 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202408296
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摘要
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目的

探讨新型冠状病毒感染疫情及防控措施对深圳市宝安区手足口病流行趋势的影响。

方法

基于深圳市宝安区2014—2019年（大流行前）及2020—2022年（大流行及“乙类甲管”期）的手足口病发病率数据，利用季节性差分自回归移动平均模型分别建立反事实模型，预测2020—2023年及2023年（持续流行及“乙类乙管”阶段）的手足口病发病率，并与实际发病率比较。

结果

与预测结果相比，2020—2022年的手足口病实际发病规模下降45.29%～85.71%，且时间分布特点发生变化。手足口病发病率在2023年迅速回升，全年发病规模较基于“乙类甲管期”的预测值提升125.73%，但低于基于新冠大流行前数据预测值。

结论

新冠疫情及防控措施显著影响深圳市宝安区手足口病流行趋势，短期内降低发病率，但长期缺乏免疫刺激可能导致发病率上升。建议持续监测手足口病流行趋势，特别是在防控措施放宽时应加强疫苗接种，以保护公众健康。

新型冠状病毒感染  /  手足口病  /  SARIMA模型  /  流行病学分析
Objective

To explore the impact of the COVID -19 pandemic and the prevention and control measures on the epidemic trend of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Bao’an District, Shenzhen.

Methods

Based on the incidence data of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Bao’an District, Shenzhen from 2014 to 2019 (pre-pandemic) and from 2020 to 2022 (pandemic and “Class A Infectious Disease Management for Class B Infectious Diseases” period), counterfactual models were established respectively using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to predict the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in 2020 to 2023 and 2023 (continuous epidemic and “Class B Infectious Disease Management” stage), followed by comparison with the actual incidence.

Results

Compared with the predicted results, the actual incidence scale of hand, foot, and mouth disease from 2020 to 2022 decreased by 45.29% to 85.71%, and the characteristics of time distribution changed. The incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease rebounded rapidly in 2023, and the annual incidence scale increased by 125.73% compared with the predicted value based on the “Class A Infectious Disease Management for Class B Infectious Diseases” period, but was lower than the predicted value based on the data before the COVID-19 pandemic.

Conclusion

The COVID-19 pandemic and prevention and control measures significantly affected the epidemic trend of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Bao’an District, Shenzhen, reducing the incidence in the short term, but the lack of immune stimulation in the long term may lead to an increase in the incidence. It is recommended to continuously monitor the epidemic trend of hand, foot, and mouth disease, and especially strengthen vaccination when prevention and control measures are relaxed to protect public health.

COVID-19  /  Hand, foot, and mouth disease  /  SARIMA model  /  Epidemiological analysis
陈亿雄, 任萌, 张雪, 张晟, 王梓琪, 杜向军, 张新东. 应用SARIMA模型评估新型冠状病毒感染疫情及防控措施对手足口病流行趋势的影响. 现代预防医学, 2025 , 52 (5) : 818 -825 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202408296
Yi-xiong CHEN, Meng REN, Xue ZHANG, Sheng ZHANG, Zi-qi WANG, Xiang-jun DU, Xin-dong ZHANG. Evaluating the impact of the COVID - 19 pandemic and the prevention and control measures on the epidemic trend of hand, foot, and mouth disease using the SARIMA model[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2025 , 52 (5) : 818 -825 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202408296
正文
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自2019年末新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）感染疫情暴发以来，全球实施了社交距离、封锁等防控措施，这些措施不仅控制了COVID-19的传播，也对手足口病等其他传染病的流行模式产生了影响[1-3]。手足口病主要影响儿童，其流行受到公共卫生措施、社会行为等因素影响[4-5]。2020年数据显示，广东省手足口病发病率因实施新冠防控措施下降了76.2%[1]。随着疫苗接种和防控措施放宽，手足口病传播模式可能改变。然而，自2022年12月防控策略调整为“乙类乙管”以来，这些措施如何影响手足口病流行趋势，研究仍有限。本研究选取深圳市宝安区作为研究对象，该区域人口密度大，是研究手足口病流行趋势的典型代表。研究采用季节性差分自回归移动平均模型（seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model，SARIMA），旨在评估新冠感染疫情及防控措施对手足口病流行趋势的影响，为制定精准防控策略提供依据。
1　材料与方法
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1.1　资料收集
2014—2023年深圳市宝安区常住人口数资料来源于深圳市统计局，2014年1月1日—2023年12月31日深圳市宝安区手足口病个案数据来自于“中国疾病预防控制信息系统”。手足口病为丙类法定传染病，病例的上报遵从《中华人民共和国传染病防治法》及《传染病信息报告管理规范》的有关规定，诊断标准依据中华人民共和国卫生行业标准（WS 588-2018）[6]。
1.2　分析思路
自2020年1月20日起，中国将新冠病毒感染纳入乙类传染病范畴，实施甲类防控措施。2022年12月，随着“新十条”发布及防控措施调整为“乙类乙管”，我国疫情防控进入新阶段。本研究将2014—2023年粗略地分为三个阶段：新冠大流行前期（2014—2019年）、大流行及“乙类甲管”期（2020—2022年）、持续流行及“乙类乙管”阶段（2023年）。研究通过建立反事实模型，基于2014—2019年深圳市宝安区手足口病周发病率数据预测2020—2023年周发病率，并与实际数据对比，评估新冠疫情及防控措施对手足口病流行趋势的影响。进一步利用2020—2022年数据预测2023年周发病率，评估防控措施由“乙类甲管”调整为“乙类乙管”对手足口病发病规律的影响。
1.3　描述性分析
剔除结果缺失/有误的资料，按照病例记录的“发病日期”统计每周发病数。根据每年及上一年的年末常住人口数计算年中常住人口数。计数资料用率/构成比（%）描述，周发病率计算公式为：手足口病周发病率=（宝安区周发病数/同年宝安区年中常住人口数）×100 000；年发病率计算方式类似。使用描述性流行病学方法分析宝安区2014—2023年手足口病发病的人群分布与时间分布特征。使用经典时间序列分解中的加法模型分解手足口病的周发病率时间序列[7-8]，其假定时间序列为残差项、趋势周期项与季节项加和而成。数学表达式为：
1.4　模型构建
SARIMA（p，d，q）（P，D，Q）s，是分析季节性时间序列数据的统计模型，它结合自回归（AR）、差分（I）、移动平均（MA）以及季节性自回归（SAR）和季节性移动平均（SMA）等成分，准确捕捉季节性模式[9]。在模型中，“p”和“P”为自回归和季节性自回归项数，“d”和“D”为非季节性和季节性的差分阶数，“q”和“Q”为移动平均和季节性移动平均项数。
本研究构建SARIMA模型分析手足口病的季节性发病特征。首先，采用单位根检验（augmented dickey-fuller test，ADF）判断时间序列的平稳性。若非平稳则进行差分调整。接着为模型识别，根据上一步确定好d和D，利用自相关函数（ACF）和偏自相关函数（PACF）分析确定非季节自回归参数p和移动平均参数q的取值范围，参数P和Q的取值通常不超过2[10]。此外，既往手足口病相关研究认为手足口病的流行周期为一年或者两年，因此本研究假定P 和Q 可能为0、1、2并遍历所有组合[5,11]。随后为模型诊断，通过参数估计和模型检验选择最优模型。使用标准化贝叶斯信息准则（BIC）、赤池信息量准则（AIC）、决定系数（R2）、平均绝对误差（MAE）、均方根误差（RMSE）等指标比较模型的复杂度和拟合优度，用Ljung-Box检验判断残差序列是否为白噪声序列，以确保数据信息提取充分。最后，选取最佳参数组合用于预测，并计算预测值和实际值的相对误差[12-13]。
1.5　统计分析
使用Excel 2021软件对手足口病病例数据进行汇总和整理，利用Python软件（版本3.1.2）进行统计学描述及绘图，时间序列分解由statsmodels模块下的seasonal_decompose方法构建，SARIMA模型由statsmodels模块下的SARIMAX方法构建。双侧检验水准α=0.1。
2　结果
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2.1　流行特征
2014—2023年，深圳市宝安区手足口病累积报告118 826例，93.56%为5岁及以下儿童（111 181例），5.43%为6～12岁儿童（6 455例），男性病例71 441例（60.12%），多于女性的47 385例（39.88%）。2014—2019年发病率波动于424.20/10万～583.98/10万，2020年新冠疫情后发病率明显下降，2022年最低，为69.55/10万人。见图1。
2014—2019年，深圳市宝安区手足口病发病均呈双峰分布，一般春夏季（约12～32周）为主高峰，秋冬季（约36～45周）为次高峰，但2017年相反，秋冬季的高峰为主高峰。见图2。
2014—2023年深圳市宝安区手足口病发病率时间序列分解显示，2020—2022年发病率下降，2023年有所上升但强度不及疫情前水平。手足口病季节性趋势明显，每年有两个发病高峰，第一个高峰强度较大。见图3。
2.2　基于2014—2019年手足口病发病规律预测2020—2023年手足口病流行趋势
对2014—2019年原始数据进行一年的季节性差分和一阶差分之后（D=1,d=1），序列表现平稳，ADF平稳性检验的P<0.001；并且差分后的序列不是白噪声序列，Ljung-Box检验的P<0.001。见图4。
基于2014—2019年手足口病周发病率数据进行SARIMA建模，并对建模后的残差进行检验。经过筛选，最优模型为SARIMA(1,1,2)(2,1,2)52，模型的评价指标如表1。模型残差序列的Ljung-Box检验的P=0.540，这提示序列为白噪声序列。
用构建的模型对2020—2023年的手足口病周发病率进行预测，并与实际周发病率进行比较，见图5。2020年全年发病率实际值比预测值相对减少了85.71%，春夏季的发病高峰消失，秋冬季发病高峰规模变小；2021年全年发病率实际值比预测值相对减少了65.23%，保持双峰分布，但规模变小；2022年全年发病率实际值比预测值相对减少了86.70%，仅夏秋季一个高峰，且规模较小；2023年全年发病率实际值比预测值相对减少45.29%，仅夏季一个急剧上升的高峰。
2.3　基于2020—2022年手足口病发病规律预测2023年手足口病流行趋势
对2020—2022年手足口病周发病率原始数据进行一年的季节性差分和一阶差分之后（D=1，d=1），序列平稳，ADF平稳性检验的P<0.001；且差分后的序列为非白噪声序列，Ljung-Box检验的P<0.001，见图6。
基于2020—2022年手足口病周发病率数据进行SARIMA建模。经过筛选，最优模型为SARIMA(1,1,1)(1,1,0)52，模型的评价指标如表2。模型残差序列的Ljung-Box检验的P=0.980，这提示序列为白噪声序列。
用构建的模型对2023年的手足口病周发病率进行预测，并与实际周发病率进行比较，见图7。2023年全年发病率实际值比预测值相对增长了125.73%，预测的发病规律为两个低矮的双峰（春夏季及秋冬季各一个），实际则为尖锐的夏季高峰。
3　讨论
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传染病发病率受多种因素影响，包括病原体传播特性、防控措施效果和人群免疫水平等。本研究发现，2020—2022年新冠防控措施显著降低了手足口病发病规模并改变其季节性模式。这一趋势在广东省[1]、浙江省[14]、河南省[15]、郑州市[16]、苏州市[17]及德国[18]的研究中得到证实。广东省的研究显示新冠防控措施使手足口病发病率下降76.2%[1]。郑州市的研究指出，实际值比预测值减少33.15%，发病峰值推迟14周[16]。这些结果强调了新冠防控措施在控制传染病流行中的潜在效益。
2020—2022年新冠疫情期间，深圳市宝安区实施严格的防控措施，如停课、限流、社区管理等，有效降低了人际接触频率[19-20]，从而减少了手足口病的传播，显著降低了其发病规模。这些综合措施还可能改变病毒的传播模式，抑制手足口病的“双峰”季节性特征，导致首个发病高峰推迟或消失。
同时，公众健康意识在新冠防控期间得到显著提升，卫生预防行为得到加强。调查表明，在1级和2级应急响应期间，人们减少外出，避免去拥挤场所，加强洗手[21-22]，口罩使用率提高，介于83.7%～97.0%之间[22-23]。这些行为显示公众对COVID-19的防护意识和行动能力较强，对控制手足口病的传播起到了积极作用。
新冠疫情期间的防控措施导致人群免疫负债累积，可能成为疫情后期手足口病发病规模急剧上升的关键因素。本研究观察到，2023年防控措施调整为“乙类乙管”后，手足口病发病率迅速回升，呈现单一高强度峰值，远超预测。此外，社会活动的恢复促进了流感等呼吸道病原体的反季节性增强，形成与新冠等病原体的交互流行现象[24-25]。
在新冠疫情防控期间，由于减少病原体暴露，人群缺乏自然免疫刺激，削弱了自然免疫成分。同时，防疫措施导致疫苗接种推迟或取消[26]，阻断了人工免疫途径，降低了整体免疫保护水平[27-28]，无法形成有效的群体免疫屏障。随着疫情解封，由于之前的免疫刺激不足，人群对手足口病等疾病的易感性增加，导致发病率显著上升。
在疫情防控与日常免疫刺激之间寻求平衡至关重要。在调整防控政策前，应优先为高危人群接种疫苗，加强特定人群监测并优化医疗资源配置，以应对手足口病的流行变化。提高手足口病疫苗接种率和扩大接种范围是构建群体免疫屏障、降低疾病传播风险的关键[29]。同时，强化托幼机构和家庭等重点区域的症状监测，实现早期识别，以有效遏制疫情传播。此外，持续的病原监测，特别是对手足口病重症和死亡病例的关注，对评估疫苗接种效果、预警疫情变化和指导公共卫生策略至关重要。
本研究运用SARIMA模型预测深圳市宝安区手足口病发病率，量化新冠肺炎疫情及防控措施的影响，为深入理解手足口病的流行趋势提供了重要依据。但研究仍存在一定局限。SARIMA模型依赖历史数据，难以应对病毒变异和人群行为变化，且未考虑气候、地理、社会经济等因素，也未对病原类型进行区分。未来研究需进一步深入探索相关领域。
基金
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  • 广东省深圳市宝安区科技创新局资助项目(2023JD148)
  • 广东省深圳市宝安区医学会资助项目(BAYXH2024070)
文献
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2025年第52卷第5期
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202408296
  • 接收时间：2024-08-18
  • 首发时间：2026-03-18
  • 出版时间：2025-03-10
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  • 收稿日期：2024-08-18
基金
广东省深圳市宝安区科技创新局资助项目(2023JD148)
广东省深圳市宝安区医学会资助项目(BAYXH2024070)
作者信息
    1.深圳市宝安区疾病预防控制中心，广东 深圳 518101
    2.中山大学公共卫生学院（深圳

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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
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红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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