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Article(id=1241065979665511126, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241065978004557893, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202410245, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1729094400000, receivedDateStr=2024-10-17, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773822787442, onlineDateStr=2026-03-18, pubDate=1740412800000, pubDateStr=2025-02-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773822787442, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-18, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773822787442, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773822787442, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1241065978004557893, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2025', volume='52', issue='4', pageStart='577', pageEnd='768', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773822787047, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773823194927, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1241067688831808347, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241065978004557893, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1241067688831808348, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241065978004557893, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=667, endPage=672, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1241065980030415577, articleId=1241065979665511126, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Time-varying associations between adverse childhood experiences and social isolation in middle-aged and older adults, columnId=1228016572892119056, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Primary Health Services, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To explore the time-varying association between adverse childhood experiences and social isolation in middle-aged and older adults and provide a scientific evidence for the early identification of people at risk of social isolation and the development of appropriate interventions.

Methods

Data were used from respondents who participated in the life history survey of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and at least one of the surveysconducted between 2011 and 2020. Adverse childhood experienceswere collected through self-reporting and divided into four groups based on the number of adverse childhood experiences, which were categorized into the group that had not experienced adverse childhood experiences, the group that had experienced one type of adverse childhood experience, the group that had experienced two types of adverse childhood experiences, and the group that had experienced three or more types of adverse childhood experiences. A time-varying effect model was used to explore the age-varying association between adverse childhood experiences and social isolation among middle-aged and older adults, using age as the time variable.

Results

A total of 14 397 middle-aged and older adults were included in the study. Compared with those who had not experienced adverse childhood experiences, those who had experienced one adverse childhood experience had a higher risk of social isolation between the ages of 61 and 70(OR=1.22, 95% CI:1.06-1.41); those who had experienced two adverse childhood experiences had a higher risk of social isolation between the ages of 50 and 65(OR=1.33, 95% CI: 1.13-1.57); and those who had experienced three or more adverse childhood experiences had a higher risk of social isolation between the ages of 45 and 58(OR=1.86, 95% CI:1.16-2.99).

Conclusion

There is aage-varyingassociation between adverse childhood experiences and social isolation among middle-aged and elderly people, with the more childhood adversities experienced, the younger the age at which social isolation occurs.

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目的

探索童年逆境与中老年人社会隔离关联的年龄效应，为早期发现社会隔离的高危人群，制定合适的干预措施提供科学依据。

方法

研究对象为参加了CHARLS 2014年中国居民生命历程调查，且至少参加了一次2011、2013、2015、2018和2020年调查的受访者。童年逆境通过自我报告的方式收集，根据经历童年逆境的数量划分为四组：未经历童年逆境组、经历一种童年逆境组、经历两种童年逆境组和经历三种及以上童年逆境组。采用时变效应模型，以年龄作为时间变量，探索童年逆境与中老年人社会隔离关联的年龄效应。

结果

研究共纳入14 397名研究对象，与未经历童年逆境的中老年人相比，经历一种童年逆境的中老年人在61岁至70岁时发生社会隔离的风险增高（OR=1.22，95% CI：1.06~1.41）；经历两种童年逆境的中老年人在50至65岁时发生社会隔离的风险增高（OR=1.33，95% CI：1.13~1.57）；经历三种及以上童年逆境的中老年人在45岁至58岁时发生社会隔离的风险增高（OR=1.86，95% CI：1.16~2.99）。

结论

童年逆境与中老年人社会隔离的关联存在年龄效应，经历的童年期逆境越多，发生社会隔离的年龄越小。

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万洋，E-mail：
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辜自洁（1998—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：卫生统计方法与应用

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辜自洁（1998—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：卫生统计方法与应用

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辜自洁（1998—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：卫生统计方法与应用

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General situation of the research object (n=56 324)

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特征总计(n) /(%)
年龄（岁）56 32459.81±9.18
性别
男27 48948.81
女28 83551.19
受教育程度
文盲16 89930.00
小学及以下15 49427.51
初中15 54827.61
高中及以上8 38314.88
童年时期居住地
农业51 46591.37
城镇4 8598.63
父母受教育程度
文盲29 73252.79
非文盲26 59247.21
家庭经济情况
较差21 17437.59
一般29 68952.71
较好5 4619.70
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研究对象的一般情况（n=56 324）

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
特征总计(n) /(%)
年龄（岁）56 32459.81±9.18
性别
男27 48948.81
女28 83551.19
受教育程度
文盲16 89930.00
小学及以下15 49427.51
初中15 54827.61
高中及以上8 38314.88
童年时期居住地
农业51 46591.37
城镇4 8598.63
父母受教育程度
文盲29 73252.79
非文盲26 59247.21
家庭经济情况
较差21 17437.59
一般29 68952.71
较好5 4619.70
), ArticleFig(id=1241065987798266822, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241065979665511126, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Adverse childhood experiences and social isolation of the study participants

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特征总计(n)百分比(%)
童年逆境（种）
016 52129.33
119 21534.12
212 12921.53
≥38 45915.02
社会孤立
否48 69686.46
是7 62813.54
), ArticleFig(id=1241065987991204823, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241065979665511126, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

研究对象的童年逆境和社会隔离情况

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
特征总计(n)百分比(%)
童年逆境（种）
016 52129.33
119 21534.12
212 12921.53
≥38 45915.02
社会孤立
否48 69686.46
是7 62813.54
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童年逆境与中老年人社会隔离关联的时变效应分析
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辜自洁 , 张晴晴 , 季小艺 , 宋林阳 , 邱培媛 , 万洋
现代预防医学 | 基层卫生服务 2025,52(4): 667-672
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现代预防医学 | 基层卫生服务 2025, 52(4): 667-672
童年逆境与中老年人社会隔离关联的时变效应分析
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辜自洁, 张晴晴, 季小艺, 宋林阳, 邱培媛, 万洋
作者信息
  • 四川大学华西公共卫生学院/华西第四医院，四川 成都 610041

    • 辜自洁（1998—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：卫生统计方法与应用

通讯作者:

万洋，E-mail：
Time-varying associations between adverse childhood experiences and social isolation in middle-aged and older adults
Zi-jie GU, Qing-qing ZHANG, Xiao-yi JI, Lin-yang SONG, Pei-yuan QIU, Yang WAN
Affiliations
  • West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sicuan 610041, China
出版时间: 2025-02-25 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202410245
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摘要
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目的

探索童年逆境与中老年人社会隔离关联的年龄效应，为早期发现社会隔离的高危人群，制定合适的干预措施提供科学依据。

方法

研究对象为参加了CHARLS 2014年中国居民生命历程调查，且至少参加了一次2011、2013、2015、2018和2020年调查的受访者。童年逆境通过自我报告的方式收集，根据经历童年逆境的数量划分为四组：未经历童年逆境组、经历一种童年逆境组、经历两种童年逆境组和经历三种及以上童年逆境组。采用时变效应模型，以年龄作为时间变量，探索童年逆境与中老年人社会隔离关联的年龄效应。

结果

研究共纳入14 397名研究对象，与未经历童年逆境的中老年人相比，经历一种童年逆境的中老年人在61岁至70岁时发生社会隔离的风险增高（OR=1.22，95% CI：1.06~1.41）；经历两种童年逆境的中老年人在50至65岁时发生社会隔离的风险增高（OR=1.33，95% CI：1.13~1.57）；经历三种及以上童年逆境的中老年人在45岁至58岁时发生社会隔离的风险增高（OR=1.86，95% CI：1.16~2.99）。

结论

童年逆境与中老年人社会隔离的关联存在年龄效应，经历的童年期逆境越多，发生社会隔离的年龄越小。

童年逆境  /  社会隔离  /  时变效应模型
Objective

To explore the time-varying association between adverse childhood experiences and social isolation in middle-aged and older adults and provide a scientific evidence for the early identification of people at risk of social isolation and the development of appropriate interventions.

Methods

Data were used from respondents who participated in the life history survey of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and at least one of the surveysconducted between 2011 and 2020. Adverse childhood experienceswere collected through self-reporting and divided into four groups based on the number of adverse childhood experiences, which were categorized into the group that had not experienced adverse childhood experiences, the group that had experienced one type of adverse childhood experience, the group that had experienced two types of adverse childhood experiences, and the group that had experienced three or more types of adverse childhood experiences. A time-varying effect model was used to explore the age-varying association between adverse childhood experiences and social isolation among middle-aged and older adults, using age as the time variable.

Results

A total of 14 397 middle-aged and older adults were included in the study. Compared with those who had not experienced adverse childhood experiences, those who had experienced one adverse childhood experience had a higher risk of social isolation between the ages of 61 and 70(OR=1.22, 95% CI:1.06-1.41); those who had experienced two adverse childhood experiences had a higher risk of social isolation between the ages of 50 and 65(OR=1.33, 95% CI: 1.13-1.57); and those who had experienced three or more adverse childhood experiences had a higher risk of social isolation between the ages of 45 and 58(OR=1.86, 95% CI:1.16-2.99).

Conclusion

There is aage-varyingassociation between adverse childhood experiences and social isolation among middle-aged and elderly people, with the more childhood adversities experienced, the younger the age at which social isolation occurs.

Adverse childhood experiences  /  Social isolation  /  Time-varying effect model
辜自洁, 张晴晴, 季小艺, 宋林阳, 邱培媛, 万洋. 童年逆境与中老年人社会隔离关联的时变效应分析. 现代预防医学, 2025 , 52 (4) : 667 -672 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202410245
Zi-jie GU, Qing-qing ZHANG, Xiao-yi JI, Lin-yang SONG, Pei-yuan QIU, Yang WAN. Time-varying associations between adverse childhood experiences and social isolation in middle-aged and older adults[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2025 , 52 (4) : 667 -672 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202410245
正文
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社会隔离是指客观上缺乏或与他人的社交接触有限[1]。社会隔离与多种不良健康结局有关，如认知障碍[2-3]、心血管疾病[4-5]和抑郁[6]等。一项meta分析显示，我国社区老年人社会隔离的发生率为29.5%[7]，已成为不可忽视的公共卫生问题。探索社会隔离的危险因素有助于预防老年人社会隔离的发生。
既往研究显示，童年逆境对成年人社会隔离存在影响[8]。然而，目前还未有研究探索童年逆境对中老年人社会隔离远期影响。此外，童年逆境对不同年龄的中老年人社会隔离的影响可能不同。因此，研究童年逆境和中老年人社会隔离随年龄变化的动态关系能为早期发现社会隔离的高危人群，制定合适的干预措施提供科学依据。
时变效应模型（Time-Varying Effect Model, TVEM）可用于探索暴露与结局的关联如何随时间变化，为研究暴露与结局之间的动态关联提供了技术手段。时变效应模型可用于纵向密集型数据，也可用于横截面数据和面板数据[9],如Sunderland等运用时变效应模型探讨了不同年龄青少年生活方式因素与严重抑郁障碍的关联[10]。在本研究中，假设童年逆境与中老年人社会隔离的关系随年龄改变，以年龄作为时变效应模型中的时间变量，其余变量作为时不变变量纳入，探索童年逆境与中老年人社会隔离随年龄变化的动态关联，以期为中老年人社会隔离的预防和干预提供科学依据。
1　资料与方法
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1.1　研究对象
本研究数据来源于中国健康与养老追踪调查（China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, CHARLS）。该项目于2011年对全国28个省（自治区、直辖市）的 45 岁及以上中老年人进行了基线调查，并在2013、2015、2018和2020年进行了随访。此外，CHARLS在2014年进行了中国居民生命历程调查。本研究使用了 CHARLS 项目的 2011至2020年的调查数据，以及2014年的生命历程调查数据。
研究对象纳入标准：①研究对象的年龄大于等于45岁且小于等于85岁；②参加了2014年中国居民生命历程调查，且至少参加了一次2011—2020年的调查；③主要变量（包括童年逆境、社会隔离和年龄）无缺失。最终，本研究纳入14 397名研究对象，共56 324条观测记录。
1.2　研究变量及测量方法
1.2.1　童年逆境
CHARLS在2014年的生命历程调查中，通过面对面访谈收集了被调查对象17岁之前曾经历的童年逆境信息。本研究的童年逆境为父母死亡、父母分居或离婚、抚养人患有精神疾病、抚养人被监禁、抚养人酗酒或吸毒、家庭暴力、不安全的居住环境、同龄人欺凌、身体虐待和情感忽视10种[11-12]。每经历一种童年逆境则计分为1，计算其累积得分，并根据累积得分将其分为以下4组：没有经历童年逆境的赋值为0；经历一种童年逆境的赋值为1；经历两种童年逆境的赋值为2；经历三种及以上童年逆境的赋值为3。
1.2.2　社会隔离
社会隔离指数通过4个变量进行评估，包括婚姻情况、居住情况、与子女的联系频率，以及社交活动。若不在婚（包括分居、离婚、守寡或从未结婚），则婚姻情况赋值为1，否则赋值为0；若独自居住，则居住情况赋值为1，否则赋值为0；若与子女的联系频率少于每月一次（包括见面或通过电话、短信或邮件联系），则与子女的联系频率赋值为1，否则赋值为0；若在过去一个月中从未参与任何社交活动（包括与朋友交往、下棋或打牌、参与运动社交或其他俱乐部），则社交活动赋值为1，否则赋值为0[13-14]。将四个变量相加以计算社会隔离指数，社会隔离指数总分为0~4分，得分大于等于2则表示存在社会隔离。在本研究中，社会隔离作为二分类变量纳入模型。本研究将存在社会隔离赋值为1，否则赋值为0。
1.2.3　协变量
本研究中，将社会人口学变量和儿童时期社会经济状况作为控制变量纳入模型[15-23]。社会人口学变量包括性别、受教育程度（文盲、小学及以下、初中和高中及以上）。儿童时期社会经济地位包括儿童时期居住地、父母受教育水平和儿童时期家庭经济状况：儿童时期居住地根据研究对象的第一个户籍确定，分为农村和城镇；父母受教育水平被定义为任意一方最高受教育程度，分为文盲和非文盲；儿童时期家庭经济状况根据研究对象自我报告划分为较差、一般和较好。此外，年龄作为时间变量纳入模型。
1.3　统计分析
根据变量类型进行描述性分析，其中定量变量采用进行描述，定性变量采用频数和构成比进行描述。
本研究主要应用了时变效应模型分析童年逆境与中老年人社会隔离关联的时变效应。时变效应模型是线性模型的拓展模型，可将自变量和因变量之间的关联预测为时间的连续函数。时变效应模型中的“时间”可以是历史时间、生物年龄或与某一事件相关的时间以及某一特定行为或状况发生的年龄[24]。在本研究中，以年龄作为时变效应模型中的时间变量。首先，运用仅具有截距项的时变效应模型估计不同年龄中老年人社会隔离的发生率；其次，运用时变效应模型探索中老年人童年逆境与社会隔离随年龄变化的动态关联。使用P样条（P-spline）构建时变效应模型，个体内重复测量误差通过“三明治”标准误（“Sandwich” standard errors）控制。由于时变效应模型的结果报告多个时点的系数值，故模型结果以图形展示。使用STATA/MP 18.0进行数据清洗，SAS 9.4进行数据分析。
2　结果
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2.1　研究对象的基本特征
2.1.1　研究对象的一般情况
研究对象平均年龄为（59.81±9.18）岁，男性占比48.81%，受教育程度为文盲、小学及以下、初中和高中及以上的分别为30%、27.51%、27.61%和14.88%，童年时期居住地为农村占比91.37%，父母为非文盲占比47.21%，童年时期家庭经济情况为较差、一般和较好分别为37.59%、52.71%和9.70%（表1）。
2.1.2　研究对象的童年逆境和社会隔离情况
本研究中研究对象的童年逆境和社会隔离情况如表2所示，未经历童年逆境、经历一种、两种或三种以上童年逆境的占比分别为29.33%、34.12%、21.53%和15.02%。存在社会隔离情况的中老年人占比为13.54%。
2.2　不同年龄中老年人社会隔离的发生率
运用仅具有截距项的时变效应模型估计不同年龄中老年人的社会隔离发生率，结果如图2所示。随着年龄的增长，中老年人社会隔离发生率逐渐上升。在45岁的中年人中，社会隔离的发生率为4.36%（95% CI：3.72%~5.09%）；在85岁的老年人中，社会隔离的发生率达到51.3%（95% CI：46.90%~56.68%）。
2.3　童年逆境与中老年人社会隔离随年龄变化的动态关联
童年逆境与中老年人社会隔离的动态关联如图3所示。相较于未经历童年逆境的中老年人，经历一种童年逆境中老年人在61岁到70岁时社会隔离的风险增加，关联具有统计学意义。在61岁至66岁时，关联强度逐渐升高，在66岁时，二者之间关联较强（OR=1.22，95% CI：1.06~1.41），在66岁至70岁时，关联强度逐渐减弱。在70岁以后，二者之间的关联无统计学意义，见图3A。相较于未经历童年逆境的中老年人，经历两种童年逆境中老年人在50岁到65岁时社会隔离的风险增高，关联具有统计学意义。在50岁至56岁时，关联强度逐渐升高，在56岁时，二者之间关联较强（OR=1.33，95% CI：1.13~1.57），在56岁至65岁时，关联强度逐渐减弱。在65岁以后，二者之间的关联无统计学意义，见图3B。相较于未经历童年逆境的中老年人，经历三种及以上童年逆境中老年人在45岁到58岁时社会隔离的风险增高，在45岁时，经历三种及以上童年逆境中老年人社会隔离的风险是未经历童年逆境中老年人的1.86倍（OR=1.86，95% CI：1.16~2.99），此时关联最强，随后，二者之间的关联强度逐渐降低，在58岁以上的中老年人中，二者之间的关联无统计学意义，见图3C。
3　讨论
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本研究发现，我国中老年人社会隔离的发生率随年龄增加而升高，与既往研究结果一致[22,25]。Ran等的meta分析显示，在60至69岁的老年人中，社会隔离发生率为19%，在70至79岁的老年人中，社会隔离发生率为28%，而在80岁及以上的老年人中，社会隔离发生率为41%[26]。这可能是由于随着年龄的增长，中老年人生理机能逐渐减退、社会角色及家庭结构等发生变化，更容易出现社会功能减退、社交活动减少等社会网络缩小的现象，从而导致社会隔离。
时变效应模型的结果显示，童年逆境与中老年人社会隔离存在关联。Choi等在韩国的研究发现，相比低童年逆境组，经历更多童年逆境的成年人社会隔离发生率更高[8]。Rovito等在美国的研究也发现，相比未经历儿童时期家庭功能障碍的成年男性，经历儿童时期家庭功能障碍的成年男性发生社会隔离的风险更高[27]。此外，Kwong和Wang等研究发现，经历虐待的儿童更可能拥有不良的同伴关系[28-29]。不良的同伴关系并不孤立于童年，而是青春期和成年期约会和浪漫关系的基础。因此，健康同伴关系网络的缺陷继续影响着个人未来的人际关系[30]。Ebbert和Umberson等发现，童年时期的情感虐待会对成年后甚至中年时期的人际关系产生负面影响[31-32]。经历童年逆境的人维持健康社会关系的能力降低，其影响可能持续至生命晚期，致使经历童年逆境的中老年人发生社会隔离的风险升高。
此外，本研究还发现童年逆境与中老年人社会隔离的关联存在年龄效应，经历的童年期逆境越多，发生社会隔离的风险越早。相比未经历童年逆境的中老年人，经历一种童年逆境的中老年人在61岁至70岁时发生社会隔离的风险增高；经历两种童年逆境的中老年人在50至65岁时发生社会隔离的风险增高；经历三种及以上童年逆境的中老年人在45岁至58岁时发生社会隔离的风险增高。此前还未有研究探索童年逆境与中老年人社会隔离随年龄变化的动态关联。童年逆境与诸多不良心理健康结局有关，如焦虑、抑郁等，并且，经历童年逆境的数量越多，发生精神障碍的风险越高[33]。Thompson等的研究发现，社会隔离是心理健康状况不佳的表现之一[34]。尽管中老年人的社会隔离发生率随年龄增大而上升，由于经历更多童年逆境的中老年人往往心理健康状况更差，更难以适应由年龄的增加而带来的种种改变，因此，经历更多童年逆境的中老年人在更低龄时发生社会隔离的风险升高。
本研究仍存在一定局限性。首先，童年逆境为受访者回顾性自我报告，可能存在回忆偏倚；其次，本研究中时变效应模型的结果无法区分年龄效应、世代效应和时期效应。
综上所述，本研究发现经历童年逆境的中老年人发生社会隔离的风险增高，并且经历的童年逆境数量越多，中老年人发生社会隔离的风险升高的年龄越小。因此，建议社区工作者重点关注经历童年逆境的中老年人，定期组织各种志愿及娱乐活动，增加其社会接触。此外，对于经历童年逆境的儿童，应由相应的社会机构提供支持和保护，并进行及时干预，从而减轻童年逆境的不良影响。
基金
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  • 国家自然科学基金项目(72174133)
文献
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2025年第52卷第4期
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202410245
  • 接收时间：2024-10-17
  • 首发时间：2026-03-18
  • 出版时间：2025-02-25
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  • 收稿日期：2024-10-17
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国家自然科学基金项目(72174133)
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    四川大学华西公共卫生学院/华西第四医院，四川 成都 610041

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
科
Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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