Article(id=1241034445101256838, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241034441380917539, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202501148, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1736438400000, receivedDateStr=2025-01-10, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773815269017, onlineDateStr=2026-03-18, pubDate=1749484800000, pubDateStr=2025-06-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773815269017, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-18, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773815269017, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773815269017, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1241034441380917539, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2025', volume='52', issue='11', pageStart='1921', pageEnd='2112', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773815268130, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773815340947, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1241034746873049765, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241034441380917539, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1241034746873049766, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241034441380917539, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=2003, endPage=2008, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1241034445411635344, articleId=1241034445101256838, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Establishment of a nomogram prediction model for overweight and obesity in middle school students based on Lasso regression, columnId=1228016568949474136, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Child and Adolescent Health, Maternal and Child Health, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective To analyze the factors influencing overweight and obesity among middle school students and to establish a nomogram for predicting the risk of overweight and obesity in this population.
Methods From September to November 2024, a random cluster sampling method was used to select 5 135 middle school students from 20 schools in Tongren city for physical examinations and questionnaire surveys. Lasso regression was employed to identify factors affecting overweight and obesity, and a nomogram prediction model was established and validated.
Results The prevalence of overweight and obesity among middle school students was 25.02%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that being female (OR=0.430, 95%CI: 0.371-0.499),boarding at school (OR=0.582, 95%CI: 0.500-0.678), engaging in moderate to high-intensity physical activity for one hour daily (OR=0.730, 95%CI: 0.630-0.847), having non-obese parents (OR=0.466, 95%CI: 0.404-0.538), and external eating triggers (OR=0.945, 95%CI: 0.935-0.956) were protective factors against overweight and obesity. Conversely, consuming fresh fruits and vegetables at every meal (OR=1.308, 95%CI: 1.103-1.549), restrictive eating (OR=1.100, 95%CI: 1.089-1.111), and emotional eating (OR=1.091, 95%CI: 1.079-1.103) were identified as risk factors. The areas under the curve (AUC) for the training and validation sets were 0.790 (95%CI: 0.775-0.806) and 0.765 (95%CI: 0.731-0.799), respectively, indicating good discrimination of the nomogram prediction model. The Brier score was 0.15, and the Hosmer-Leeshawn test suggested good model fit (χ2=10.984, P=0.203).
Conclusion The nomogram model established in this study effectively predicts the risk of overweight and obesity, providing a reference for screening high-risk students and implementing personalized prevention strategies.
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目的 分析影响初中生超重肥胖的因素,建立列线图预测初中生超重肥胖的风险。
方法 于2024年9 —11月在贵州省铜仁市采用随机整群抽样方法选取20所初中的5 135名初中生进行体格检查和问卷调查,利用lasso回归筛选影响超重肥胖的因素,建立并验证列线图预测模型。
结果 初中生超重肥胖的检出率为25.02%。多因素logistic回归分析显示,女生(OR=0.430,95%CI:0.371~0.499)、住校(OR=0.582,95%CI:0.500~0.678)、每天中高等强度活动1 h(OR=0.730,95%CI:0.630~0.847)、父母都不胖(OR=0.466,95%CI:0.404~0.538)、外因性进食(OR=0.945,95%CI:0.935~0.956)是预防超重肥胖的保护因素。每顿饭都吃新鲜蔬果(OR=1.308,95%CI:1.103~1.549)、限制性进食(OR=1.100,95%CI:1.089~1.111)、情绪性进食(OR=1.091,95%CI:1.079~1.103)是超重肥胖的危险因素。训练集和验证集的受试者曲线下面积(AUC)分别为0.790(95%CI:0.775~0.806)、0.765(95%CI:0.731~0.799),表明该列线图预测模型区分度良好。Brier得分为0.15,Hosmer-Lemeshow检验结果提示模型拟合良好(χ2=10.984,P=0.203)。
结论 本研究建立的列线图模型可以有效预测超重肥胖发生风险,为筛查高危学生和个体化防控提供参考依据。
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本刊刊出的所有文章不代表中华预防医学会和本刊编委会的观点,除非特别声明。, copyrightOwner=中华预防医学会和四川大学华西公共卫生学院, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=HF8RZE7NVbzEdWgPwXFftg==, magXml=D25LFPkhbHzg5YMwhRbg1Q==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=Tyv9zzDDzEa75Sq4CTMzBQ==, pdfFileSize=877808, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=on/Y8oss8LPqfYUrS5LR4w==, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=FuSQD3YosDMSTqIQOYYOPA==, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=
胡君(1999—),女,硕士在读,研究方向:疾病预防与控制
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1.贵州医科大学公共卫生与健康学院,环境污染与疾病监控教育部重点实验室,贵州 贵阳 561113)]), AuthorCompany(id=1241050829793316921, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034445101256838, xref=2., ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241050829801705530, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034445101256838, companyId=1241050829793316921, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=
2.贵州省铜仁市疾病预防控制中心,贵州 铜仁 554300)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1241050835422073173, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034445101256838, language=EN, label=Figure 1, caption=
Lasso regression model screening variables, figureFileSmall=Ol9VDIQe2NLssIKTFbvv+w==, figureFileBig=kyDiuOP2sb6Q2DYSud2Unw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241050835912806748, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034445101256838, language=CN, label=图1, caption=
Lasso回归模型筛选变量注:A为回归系数路线图;B为回归交叉验证曲线。
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超重肥胖风险预测的列线图模型, figureFileSmall=SCw6RLaDoFN3AE28IshWag==, figureFileBig=Bzf3Aj4cVk6mp0lV9iG7rA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241050836357402997, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034445101256838, language=EN, label=Figure 3, caption=
ROC curve of overweight and obesity prediction model, figureFileSmall=OhZb788nWShLqNcQBeEpOg==, figureFileBig=OZX0EUCPLE3vEJA0b7NVzw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241050836692947329, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034445101256838, language=CN, label=图3, caption=
超重肥胖预测模型的ROC曲线注:A为训练集ROC曲线;B为验证集ROC曲线。
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Comparison of basic conditions between overweight and obese students and non-overweight and obese students[n(%),M(P25,P75),(
)]
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| 因素 | 选项 | 非超重肥胖组 | 超重肥胖组 | χ2/t/Z值 | P值 |
|---|
| 性别 | 女 | 2 052(79.66) | 524(20.34) | 60.413 | <0.001 |
| 男 | 1 798(70.26) | 761(29.74) | | |
| 学校所在地 | 郊县 | 3 125(76.41) | 965(23.59) | 21.911 | <0.001 |
| 城区 | 725(69.38) | 320(30.62) | | |
| 住校 | 是 | 1 556(80.54) | 376(19.46) | 51.082 | <0.001 |
| 否 | 2 294(71.62) | 909(28.38) | | |
| 每天吃谷物、杂粮或杂豆 | 是 | 2 805(76.02) | 885(23.98) | 7.568 | 0.006 |
| 否 | 1 045(72.32) | 400(27.68) | | |
| 每顿饭都吃新鲜蔬果 | 是 | 2 847(74.28) | 986(25.72) | 3.944 | 0.047 |
| 否 | 1 003(77.04) | 299(22.96) | | |
| 每天中高等强度活动1 h | 是 | 1 735(77.11) | 515(22.89) | 9.734 | 0.002 |
| 否 | 2 115(73.31) | 770(26.69) | | |
| 定期测量体重 | 是 | 1 447(73.04) | 534(26.96) | 6.415 | 0.011 |
| 否 | 2 403(76.19) | 751(23.81) | | |
| 父母都不胖 | 是 | 2 401(81.11) | 559(18.89) | 140.383 | <0.001 |
| 否 | 1 449(66.62) | 726(33.38) | | |
| 限制性进食评分 | | 18.00(15.00,23.00) | 25.00(19.00,30.00) | -21.711 | <0.001 |
| 情绪性进食评分 | | 15.00(13.00,18.00) | 17.00(15.00,26.00) | -15.724 | <0.001 |
| 外因性进食评分 | | 27.36±0.12 | 26.08±0.19 | 5.470 | <0.001 |
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超重肥胖组与非超重肥胖组学生基本情况比较[n(%),M(P25,P75),(
)]
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| 因素 | 选项 | 非超重肥胖组 | 超重肥胖组 | χ2/t/Z值 | P值 |
|---|
| 性别 | 女 | 2 052(79.66) | 524(20.34) | 60.413 | <0.001 |
| 男 | 1 798(70.26) | 761(29.74) | | |
| 学校所在地 | 郊县 | 3 125(76.41) | 965(23.59) | 21.911 | <0.001 |
| 城区 | 725(69.38) | 320(30.62) | | |
| 住校 | 是 | 1 556(80.54) | 376(19.46) | 51.082 | <0.001 |
| 否 | 2 294(71.62) | 909(28.38) | | |
| 每天吃谷物、杂粮或杂豆 | 是 | 2 805(76.02) | 885(23.98) | 7.568 | 0.006 |
| 否 | 1 045(72.32) | 400(27.68) | | |
| 每顿饭都吃新鲜蔬果 | 是 | 2 847(74.28) | 986(25.72) | 3.944 | 0.047 |
| 否 | 1 003(77.04) | 299(22.96) | | |
| 每天中高等强度活动1 h | 是 | 1 735(77.11) | 515(22.89) | 9.734 | 0.002 |
| 否 | 2 115(73.31) | 770(26.69) | | |
| 定期测量体重 | 是 | 1 447(73.04) | 534(26.96) | 6.415 | 0.011 |
| 否 | 2 403(76.19) | 751(23.81) | | |
| 父母都不胖 | 是 | 2 401(81.11) | 559(18.89) | 140.383 | <0.001 |
| 否 | 1 449(66.62) | 726(33.38) | | |
| 限制性进食评分 | | 18.00(15.00,23.00) | 25.00(19.00,30.00) | -21.711 | <0.001 |
| 情绪性进食评分 | | 15.00(13.00,18.00) | 17.00(15.00,26.00) | -15.724 | <0.001 |
| 外因性进食评分 | | 27.36±0.12 | 26.08±0.19 | 5.470 | <0.001 |
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Multivariate Logistic regression analysis results of lasso regression model screening variables
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| 自变量 | 选项 | β | 标准误 | Waldχ2值 | OR值(95%CI) | P值 |
|---|
| 性别 | 男 | | | | 1 | |
| 女 | -0.843 | 0.076 | 123.395 | 0.430(0.371~0.499) | <0.001 |
| 住校 | 否 | | | | 1 | |
| 是 | -0.541 | 0.078 | 48.558 | 0.582(0.500~0.678) | <0.001 |
| 每顿饭都吃新鲜果蔬 | 否 | | | | 1 | |
| 是 | 0.268 | 0.087 | 9.596 | 1.308(1.103~1.549) | 0.002 |
| 每天中高等强度活动1 h | 否 | | | | 1 | |
| 是 | -0.314 | 0.076 | 17.202 | 0.730(0.630~0.847) | <0.001 |
| 父母都不胖 | 否 | | | | 1 | |
| 是 | -0.763 | 0.073 | 109.374 | 0.466(0.404~0.538) | <0.001 |
| 限制性进食评分 | | 0.095 | 0.005 | 359.666 | 1.100(1.089~1.111) | <0.001 |
| 情绪性进食评分 | | 0.087 | 0.006 | 249.481 | 1.091(1.079~1.103) | <0.001 |
| 外因性进食评分 | | -0.056 | 0.006 | 98.873 | 0.945(0.935~0.956) | <0.001 |
), ArticleFig(id=1241050837716357535, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034445101256838, language=CN, label=表2, caption=
Lasso回归模型筛选变量的多因素logistic回归分析结果
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
| 自变量 | 选项 | β | 标准误 | Waldχ2值 | OR值(95%CI) | P值 |
|---|
| 性别 | 男 | | | | 1 | |
| 女 | -0.843 | 0.076 | 123.395 | 0.430(0.371~0.499) | <0.001 |
| 住校 | 否 | | | | 1 | |
| 是 | -0.541 | 0.078 | 48.558 | 0.582(0.500~0.678) | <0.001 |
| 每顿饭都吃新鲜果蔬 | 否 | | | | 1 | |
| 是 | 0.268 | 0.087 | 9.596 | 1.308(1.103~1.549) | 0.002 |
| 每天中高等强度活动1 h | 否 | | | | 1 | |
| 是 | -0.314 | 0.076 | 17.202 | 0.730(0.630~0.847) | <0.001 |
| 父母都不胖 | 否 | | | | 1 | |
| 是 | -0.763 | 0.073 | 109.374 | 0.466(0.404~0.538) | <0.001 |
| 限制性进食评分 | | 0.095 | 0.005 | 359.666 | 1.100(1.089~1.111) | <0.001 |
| 情绪性进食评分 | | 0.087 | 0.006 | 249.481 | 1.091(1.079~1.103) | <0.001 |
| 外因性进食评分 | | -0.056 | 0.006 | 98.873 | 0.945(0.935~0.956) | <0.001 |
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