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Article(id=1241034443373211962, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241034441380917539, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202501314, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1737302400000, receivedDateStr=2025-01-20, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773815268605, onlineDateStr=2026-03-18, pubDate=1749484800000, pubDateStr=2025-06-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773815268605, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-18, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773815268605, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773815268605, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1241034441380917539, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2025', volume='52', issue='11', pageStart='1921', pageEnd='2112', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773815268130, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773815340947, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1241034746873049765, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241034441380917539, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1241034746873049766, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241034441380917539, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=1941, endPage=1946, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1241034443645841733, articleId=1241034443373211962, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Construction and validation of a nomogram model for sarcopenia in Chinese elderly, columnId=1240413921954295836, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Epidemiology and Statistical Methods, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To construct and validate a nomogram model for sarcopenia in Chinese elderly individuals.

Methods

Data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) in 2011 and 2015 were utilized, randomly divided into training and validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. LASSO regression was employed to select potential predictive variables, and Logistic regression was used to determine the final predictive variables, leading to the construction of the nomogram. The model’s predictive performance, calibration, and clinical validity were evaluated through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Hosmer-Leeshawn test, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis.

Results

A total of 1 320 elderly individuals without sarcopenia at baseline were included, and after a 4-year follow-up, 161 individuals (12.2%) developed sarcopenia. LASSO regression identified 10 potential predictive variables, while Logistic regression analysis indicated that age and social isolation were risk factors, with odds ratios (ORs) of 1.086 (95%CI: 1.049-1.125) and 1.696 (95%CI: 1.114-2.582), respectively. Social interaction (SI) was identified as a protective factor (OR=0.986, 95%CI: 0.973-0.999). Compared to a body roundness index (BRI) ≤ 3.00, higher BRI levels were associated with lower risk: ORs (95%CI) for >3.00-3.74, >3.74-4.51, >4.51-5.47, and >5.47 were 0.529 (0.284-0.988), 0.315 (0.164-0.606), 0.128 (0.061-0.270), and 0.174 (0.087-0.347),respectively. Based on these findings, a nomogram was constructed, with AUCs of 0.734 and 0.723 for the training and validation sets, respectively, indicating good model discrimination. The Hosmer-Leeshawn test demonstrated good model fit, and the calibration curve closely matched the ideal curve. Decision curve analysis suggested that the model possesses good clinical efficacy.

Conclusion

The risk of sarcopenia is relatively high among Chinese elderly individuals, and the nomogram model constructed based on age, SI, social isolation, and BRI can effectively predict the risk of its occurrence.

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目的

构建并验证中国老年人肌少症列线图模型。

方法

利用中国健康与养老追踪调查2011和2015年数据，按7：3比例随机分为训练集和验证集。采用LASSO回归筛选潜在预测变量，结合logistic回归确定最终预测变量，进而构建列线图。通过受试者工作特征曲线下面积（area under the curve，AUC）、Hosmer-Lemeshow检验、校准曲线和决策曲线，评估模型的预测性能、校准度及临床有效性。

结果

共纳入1 320例基线无肌少症的老年人，随访4年后161人（12.2%）发生肌少症。LASSO回归筛选出10个潜在预测变量。Logistic回归分析表明：年龄和社会隔离是危险因素，其OR（95%CI）分别为1.086（1.049～1.125）、1.696（1.114～2.582）；肌少症指数（SI）为保护因素（OR=0.986，95%CI：0.973～0.999）；与身体圆度指数（BRI）≤3.00相比，较高的BRI水平与较低的风险相关，BRI>3.00～3.74、>3.74～4.51、>4.51～5.47、>5.47的OR（95%CI）分别为0.529（0.284～0.988）、0.315（0.164～0.606）、0.128（0.061～0.270）、0.174（0.087～0.347）。据此构建列线图，训练集和验证集的AUC分别为0.734和0.723，表明模型区分度良好。Hosmer-Lemeshow检验显示模型拟合良好，校准曲线与理想曲线基本吻合。决策曲线分析提示模型具备良好临床效能。

结论

中国老年人肌少症发病风险较高，基于年龄、SI、社会隔离及BRI构建的列线图模型可有效预测其发生风险。

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程丽，E-mail:
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刘慧（2000—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：慢病管理

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刘慧（2000—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：慢病管理

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刘慧（2000—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：慢病管理

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European Journal of Medical Research, 2024, 29(1): 278., articleTitle=Development and validation of a predictive model for the risk of sarcopenia in the older adults in China, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1241050840371352042, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034443373211962, awardId=2023A1515012522;, language=CN, fundingSource=广东省基础与应用基础研究基金资助项目(2023A1515012522;), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1241050840497181172, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034443373211962, awardId=2025A1515011403, language=CN, fundingSource=广东省基础与应用基础研究基金资助项目(2025A1515011403), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1241050840748839422, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034443373211962, awardId=24qnpy178, language=CN, fundingSource=中山大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(24qnpy178), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1241050828061069335, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034443373211962, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241050828073652247, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034443373211962, companyId=1241050828061069335, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=School of Nursing, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241050828077846552, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034443373211962, companyId=1241050828061069335, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=中山大学护理学院，广东 广州 510080)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1241050836533563771, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034443373211962, language=EN, label=Figure 1, caption=The selection process of participants, figureFileSmall=QkblTqkQDfHsBkD7Tv4dsw==, figureFileBig=JcSzyRQ4PvMxP1yNKbrHdg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241050836709724549, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034443373211962, language=CN, label=图1, caption=研究对象筛选流程图, figureFileSmall=QkblTqkQDfHsBkD7Tv4dsw==, figureFileBig=JcSzyRQ4PvMxP1yNKbrHdg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241050836923634060, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034443373211962, language=EN, label=Figure 2, caption=Nomogram for the risk of sarcopenia in the elderly Chinese population, figureFileSmall=1Pkpbc3kBuZfos77UKv3mw==, figureFileBig=8Gx5L9rtCjXa8p4AEeUJ8w==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241050837217235343, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034443373211962, language=CN, label=图2, caption=中国老年人肌少症列线图模型, figureFileSmall=1Pkpbc3kBuZfos77UKv3mw==, figureFileBig=8Gx5L9rtCjXa8p4AEeUJ8w==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241050837502448022, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034443373211962, language=EN, label=Figure 3, caption=ROC curve of the nomogram prediction model, figureFileSmall=urJfNwsjgV9/G2eQ7241Wg==, figureFileBig=9FV8RhNzTHCEpsX9f0ViZA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241050837703774622, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034443373211962, language=CN, label=图3, caption=列线图预测模型的ROC曲线

注：图A为训练集ROC曲线；图B为测试集ROC曲线。

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Comparison of characteristics between sarcopenia and non-sarcopenia groups ［（），n（%），M（IQR）］

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量总体（n=1 320）肌少症组（n=161）无肌少症组（n=1 159）统计值P值
社会人口学资料
年龄（岁）66.50±5.4568.17±6.0366.27±5.33-3.801a<0.001
居住地4.508b0.034
农村1 011 (76.6)134 (83.2)877 (75.7)
城镇309 (23.4)27 (16.8)282 (24.3)
婚姻状况5.274b0.022
已婚998 (75.6)110 (68.3)888 (76.6)
未婚或分居或离异或丧偶322 (24.4)51 (31.7)271 (23.4)
疾病相关资料及心理行为特征
TG（mmol/L）1.23 (0.92)1.01 (0.78)1.26 (0.92)-4.128c<0.001
HDL-C（mmol/L）1.28±0.371.36±0.421.27±0.37-2.994a0.003
Hb（g/L）145.00 (24.00)142.00 (23.00)145.00 (24.00)-2.153c0.031
SI77.18 (20.40)74.77 (17.25)77.69 (20.89)-2.789c0.005
认知功能14.22±5.2713.38±5.5114.34±5.232.172a0.030
抽烟14.096b<0.001
从不678 (51.4)75 (46.6)603 (52.0)
已戒烟189 (14.3)12 (7.4)177 (15.3)
仍然抽烟453 (34.3)74 (46.0)379 (32.7)
社会隔离13.337b<0.001
无766 (58.0)72 (44.7)694 (59.9)
有554 (42.0)89 (55.3)465 (40.1)
BRI61.988b<0.001
≤3.00132 (10.0)36 (22.4)96 (8.3)
>3.00～3.74243 (18.4)48 (29.8)195 (16.8)
>3.74～4.51288 (21.8)34 (21.1)254 (21.9)
>4.51～5.47335 (25.4)17 (10.6)318 (27.5)
>5.47322 (24.4)26 (16.1)296 (25.5)
), ArticleFig(id=1241050838769127886, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034443373211962, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

肌少症组和无肌少症组资料比较［（），n（%），M（IQR）］

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量总体（n=1 320）肌少症组（n=161）无肌少症组（n=1 159）统计值P值
社会人口学资料
年龄（岁）66.50±5.4568.17±6.0366.27±5.33-3.801a<0.001
居住地4.508b0.034
农村1 011 (76.6)134 (83.2)877 (75.7)
城镇309 (23.4)27 (16.8)282 (24.3)
婚姻状况5.274b0.022
已婚998 (75.6)110 (68.3)888 (76.6)
未婚或分居或离异或丧偶322 (24.4)51 (31.7)271 (23.4)
疾病相关资料及心理行为特征
TG（mmol/L）1.23 (0.92)1.01 (0.78)1.26 (0.92)-4.128c<0.001
HDL-C（mmol/L）1.28±0.371.36±0.421.27±0.37-2.994a0.003
Hb（g/L）145.00 (24.00)142.00 (23.00)145.00 (24.00)-2.153c0.031
SI77.18 (20.40)74.77 (17.25)77.69 (20.89)-2.789c0.005
认知功能14.22±5.2713.38±5.5114.34±5.232.172a0.030
抽烟14.096b<0.001
从不678 (51.4)75 (46.6)603 (52.0)
已戒烟189 (14.3)12 (7.4)177 (15.3)
仍然抽烟453 (34.3)74 (46.0)379 (32.7)
社会隔离13.337b<0.001
无766 (58.0)72 (44.7)694 (59.9)
有554 (42.0)89 (55.3)465 (40.1)
BRI61.988b<0.001
≤3.00132 (10.0)36 (22.4)96 (8.3)
>3.00～3.74243 (18.4)48 (29.8)195 (16.8)
>3.74～4.51288 (21.8)34 (21.1)254 (21.9)
>4.51～5.47335 (25.4)17 (10.6)318 (27.5)
>5.47322 (24.4)26 (16.1)296 (25.5)
), ArticleFig(id=1241050839188558294, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034443373211962, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Binary Logistic regression analysis of sarcopenia in Chinese elderly

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量β Wald χ2值P值OR值（95%CI）
年龄（岁）0.0830.01821.170<0.0011.086 (1.049～1.125)
SI-0.0140.0074.6560.0310.986 (0.973～0.999)
社会隔离（ref：无）
有0.5280.2146.0690.0141.696 (1.114～2.582)
BRI（ref：BRI≤3.00）41.367<0.001
>3.00～3.74-0.6360.3183.9900.0460.529 (0.284～0.988)
>3.74～4.51-1.1540.33312.015<0.0010.315 (0.164～0.606)
>4.51～5.47-2.0550.38029.208<0.0010.128 (0.061～0.270)
>5.47-1.7490.35224.716<0.0010.174 (0.087～0.347)
), ArticleFig(id=1241050839700263387, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034443373211962, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

中国老年人发生肌少症的二元logistic回归

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量β Wald χ2值P值OR值（95%CI）
年龄（岁）0.0830.01821.170<0.0011.086 (1.049～1.125)
SI-0.0140.0074.6560.0310.986 (0.973～0.999)
社会隔离（ref：无）
有0.5280.2146.0690.0141.696 (1.114～2.582)
BRI（ref：BRI≤3.00）41.367<0.001
>3.00～3.74-0.6360.3183.9900.0460.529 (0.284～0.988)
>3.74～4.51-1.1540.33312.015<0.0010.315 (0.164～0.606)
>4.51～5.47-2.0550.38029.208<0.0010.128 (0.061～0.270)
>5.47-1.7490.35224.716<0.0010.174 (0.087～0.347)
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中国老年人肌少症列线图模型的构建及验证
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刘慧 , 桑妮 , 王一楠 , 杨巧玲 , 刘巧 , 韩璐 , 程丽
现代预防医学 | 流行病与统计方法 2025,52(11): 1941-1946
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现代预防医学 | 流行病与统计方法 2025, 52(11): 1941-1946
中国老年人肌少症列线图模型的构建及验证
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刘慧, 桑妮, 王一楠, 杨巧玲, 刘巧, 韩璐, 程丽
作者信息
  • 中山大学护理学院，广东 广州 510080

    • 刘慧（2000—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：慢病管理

通讯作者:

Construction and validation of a nomogram model for sarcopenia in Chinese elderly
Hui LIU, Ni SANG, Yi-nan WANG, Qiao-ling YANG, Qiao LIU, Lu HAN, Li CHENG
Affiliations
  • School of Nursing, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510080, China
出版时间: 2025-06-10 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202501314
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摘要
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目的

构建并验证中国老年人肌少症列线图模型。

方法

利用中国健康与养老追踪调查2011和2015年数据，按7：3比例随机分为训练集和验证集。采用LASSO回归筛选潜在预测变量，结合logistic回归确定最终预测变量，进而构建列线图。通过受试者工作特征曲线下面积（area under the curve，AUC）、Hosmer-Lemeshow检验、校准曲线和决策曲线，评估模型的预测性能、校准度及临床有效性。

结果

共纳入1 320例基线无肌少症的老年人，随访4年后161人（12.2%）发生肌少症。LASSO回归筛选出10个潜在预测变量。Logistic回归分析表明：年龄和社会隔离是危险因素，其OR（95%CI）分别为1.086（1.049～1.125）、1.696（1.114～2.582）；肌少症指数（SI）为保护因素（OR=0.986，95%CI：0.973～0.999）；与身体圆度指数（BRI）≤3.00相比，较高的BRI水平与较低的风险相关，BRI>3.00～3.74、>3.74～4.51、>4.51～5.47、>5.47的OR（95%CI）分别为0.529（0.284～0.988）、0.315（0.164～0.606）、0.128（0.061～0.270）、0.174（0.087～0.347）。据此构建列线图，训练集和验证集的AUC分别为0.734和0.723，表明模型区分度良好。Hosmer-Lemeshow检验显示模型拟合良好，校准曲线与理想曲线基本吻合。决策曲线分析提示模型具备良好临床效能。

结论

中国老年人肌少症发病风险较高，基于年龄、SI、社会隔离及BRI构建的列线图模型可有效预测其发生风险。

老年人  /  肌少症  /  列线图模型  /  社会隔离  /  身体圆度指数
Objective

To construct and validate a nomogram model for sarcopenia in Chinese elderly individuals.

Methods

Data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) in 2011 and 2015 were utilized, randomly divided into training and validation sets in a 7:3 ratio. LASSO regression was employed to select potential predictive variables, and Logistic regression was used to determine the final predictive variables, leading to the construction of the nomogram. The model’s predictive performance, calibration, and clinical validity were evaluated through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Hosmer-Leeshawn test, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis.

Results

A total of 1 320 elderly individuals without sarcopenia at baseline were included, and after a 4-year follow-up, 161 individuals (12.2%) developed sarcopenia. LASSO regression identified 10 potential predictive variables, while Logistic regression analysis indicated that age and social isolation were risk factors, with odds ratios (ORs) of 1.086 (95%CI: 1.049-1.125) and 1.696 (95%CI: 1.114-2.582), respectively. Social interaction (SI) was identified as a protective factor (OR=0.986, 95%CI: 0.973-0.999). Compared to a body roundness index (BRI) ≤ 3.00, higher BRI levels were associated with lower risk: ORs (95%CI) for >3.00-3.74, >3.74-4.51, >4.51-5.47, and >5.47 were 0.529 (0.284-0.988), 0.315 (0.164-0.606), 0.128 (0.061-0.270), and 0.174 (0.087-0.347),respectively. Based on these findings, a nomogram was constructed, with AUCs of 0.734 and 0.723 for the training and validation sets, respectively, indicating good model discrimination. The Hosmer-Leeshawn test demonstrated good model fit, and the calibration curve closely matched the ideal curve. Decision curve analysis suggested that the model possesses good clinical efficacy.

Conclusion

The risk of sarcopenia is relatively high among Chinese elderly individuals, and the nomogram model constructed based on age, SI, social isolation, and BRI can effectively predict the risk of its occurrence.

Elderly  /  Sarcopenia  /  Nomogram model  /  Social isolation  /  Body roundness index
刘慧, 桑妮, 王一楠, 杨巧玲, 刘巧, 韩璐, 程丽. 中国老年人肌少症列线图模型的构建及验证. 现代预防医学, 2025 , 52 (11) : 1941 -1946 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202501314
Hui LIU, Ni SANG, Yi-nan WANG, Qiao-ling YANG, Qiao LIU, Lu HAN, Li CHENG. Construction and validation of a nomogram model for sarcopenia in Chinese elderly[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2025 , 52 (11) : 1941 -1946 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202501314
正文
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肌少症指与增龄相关的肌肉质量合并肌肉力量和（或）躯体功能下降[1]。全球约10%～16%的老年人罹患肌少症[2]。中国形势更严峻，比例达17%～17.4%[3]。其与跌倒、认知障碍、死亡等不良结局相关[1-2]。早期识别风险因素并锁定高危人群实施干预，对改善老年人肌肉健康和生活质量具有重要意义。肌少症风险预测模型相继出现，虽一定程度上提升了高危人群的早期识别能力，但现有模型在构建方法、评估指标和预测内容上存在差异，且多数基于横断面数据构建，难以有效推断预测变量与肌少症之间的因果关系，限制了其临床应用。另外，多数模型仅考虑个体的基本特征和生理指标，忽视了社会心理因素的潜在影响。健康生态学模型（health ecological model，HEM）强调，个体或群体的健康受生理、心理行为、人际关系等多重因素影响[4]。本研究采用纵向设计，基于HEM理论提取老年人肌少症的潜在预测因子，通过LASSO回归和logistic回归分析确定预测变量，构建并验证列线图，结合动态列线图提升模型的实用性与适用性，为医护人员识别高危人群并开展早期干预提供科学依据。
1　对象与方法
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1.1　对象
本研究采用回顾性队列设计，提取中国健康与养老追踪调查（China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study，CHARLS）2011和2015年数据[5]。纳入标准：（1）基线年龄≥60岁；（2）2011年未患肌少症[1]；（3）2015年肌少症数据完整。排除标准：数据不完整，即缺少关键变量者。最终纳入1 320名老年人，根据2015年肌少症状态分为无肌少症组和肌少症组。筛选流程见图1。
1.2　资料收集
1.2.1　肌少症诊断标准
基于2019年亚洲肌少症工作组共识[1]，肌少症诊断标准如下：（1）肌肉质量：通过中国成人四肢骨骼肌质量人体测量方程估算四肢骨骼肌指数（appendicular muscle mass index，ASMI）[6]。男性ASMI<7.0 kg/m2，女性<5.4 kg/m2，视为肌肉质量下降。（2）肌肉力量：男性握力<28 kg，女性<18 kg，视为肌肉力量下降。（3）躯体功能：步速<1 m/s或5次起坐试验>12 s或无法完成测试，视为躯体功能下降。肌肉质量合并肌肉力量和（或）躯体功能下降者，判定为肌少症。
1.2.2　预测变量
基于HEM理论，提取老年人肌少症的潜在预测因子，包括：（1）个体特征：①社会人口学指标；②健康状况指标：身体圆度指数（body roundness index，BRI）等，。按第20、40、60、80分位数划分为5组：≤3.00、>3.00～3.74、>3.74～4.51、>4.51～5.47和>5.47[8]；③生化指标：肌少症指数（sarcopenia index，SI）等[9]；（2）心理和行为特征；（3）家庭与社会人际网络；（4）生活及工作环境；（5）政治、经济政策。
1.3　统计分析方法
数据清洗和统计分析采用stata 18.0、SPSS 27.0及R 4.4.2。正态分布的连续变量以（均数±标准差）描述，非正态分布的以中位数和四分位数间距描述。分类变量以频数和构成比描述。组间比较采用独立样本t检验、Mann-Whitney U检验或χ2检验。使用R 4.4.2中caret包将原始数据集按7：3比例随机分为训练集（n=925）和验证集（n=395）。采用LASSO回归和logistic回归确定预测变量，构建列线图及动态列线图。通过受试者工作特征曲线下面积（area under the curve，AUC）、Hosmer-Lemeshow检验、校准曲线和决策曲线分析（decision curve analysis，DCA）评估模型的预测性能、校准度及临床有效性。检验水准α=0.05。
2　结果
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2.1　研究对象一般资料
本研究纳入1 320名老年人，4年后肌少症发病率为12.2%（161人）。肌少症与无肌少症组在年龄、居住地、婚姻状况、高密度脂蛋白、甘油三酯、血红蛋白、SI、认知功能、吸烟、BRI和社会隔离存在显著差异（P<0.05）。见表1。
2.2　中国老年人肌少症的预测变量筛选
LASSO回归系数分布图显示，随着惩罚系数的增加，变量系数逐渐压缩至0。结合10折交叉验证结果，选择lambda.min=0.014 3作为模型的最优值，筛选出10个预测变量，分别为年龄、性别、受教育程度、BRI、血红蛋白、高密度脂蛋白、SI、C反应蛋白、睡眠质量和社会隔离。
2.3　中国老年人肌少症的影响因素分析
将是否发生肌少症（否=0，是=1）作为因变量，LASSO回归筛选出的预测变量作为自变量，进行logistic回归分析。自变量赋值如下：性别（男=0，女=1）、受教育程度（未受过教育=1，小学=2，中学及以上=3）、BRI（≤3.00=1，>3.00～3.74=2，>3.74～4.51=3，>4.51～5.47=4，>5.47=5）、睡眠质量（良好=1，一般=2，差=3）、社会隔离（无=0，有=1），其他以原值带入。共线性检验结果表明，各预测变量容忍度均>0.1，方差膨胀因子均<2，各变量之间不存在共线性。二元logistic回归结果显示，年龄和社会隔离是肌少症的危险因素；SI为保护因素；与BRI≤3.00相比，较高的BRI水平与较低的风险相关。见表2。
2.4　中国老年人肌少症列线图模型的构建
通过R 4.4.2中的rms包，建立并绘制列线图，见图2。此外，通过DynNom包建立了动态列线图，并发布为网页版（https://liuh377.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp/）。
2.5　中国老年人肌少症列线图模型的验证
2.5.1　区分度检验
训练集AUC为0.734（95%CI：0.685～0.784），灵敏度为66.4%，特异度为73.2%；验证集为0.723（95%CI：0.654～0.791），灵敏度为62.5%，特异度为78.1%。结果表明，该模型区分度良好。见图3。
2.5.2　校准度检验
Hosmer-Lemeshow检验结果显示，训练集χ2=12.144，P=0.145；验证集χ2=4.844，P=0.774，表明模型校准度良好。校准曲线显示实际值与预测值之间平均绝对误差为0.011，表明模型一致性良好。见图4。
2.5.3　临床收益分析
DCA曲线结果显示，模型曲线远离两条极端无效线，表明其临床有效性良好，具有一定的应用价值。见图5。
3　讨论
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3.1　中国老年人肌少症发病率较高
本研究随访4年后，基线无肌少症的老年人肌少症发病率为12.2%，与既往研究一致[10-11]。Meta分析显示，社区老年人肌少症发病率为11%，追踪1～2和3～4年的发病率分别为6%和12%[10]。鉴于其高发病率、隐匿性起病及广泛影响，该疾病已成为人口老龄化社会中的重大公共卫生问题，增加家庭和社会负担[1-2]。医护人员应加强肌少症管理，特别是早期筛查和干预，以降低其发病率。
3.2　中国老年人肌少症的影响因素分析
3.2.1　年龄
本研究发现，年龄是肌少症的危险因素，与既往研究一致[1,11]。肌肉质量和力量在青年期达峰值后逐渐下降，60岁后加速减少[12-13]。随年龄增长，肌纤维逐渐纤维化或被脂肪替代，氧化损伤加剧，II型/I型纤维比例减少，导致肌肉质量和力量下降[12-13]。此外，激素水平变化、神经系统衰退及内分泌障碍等亦增加发病风险[3,14]。医务人员应重点关注高龄老年人的肌肉健康并早期干预。
3.2.2　肌少症指数
本研究发现，SI值越高，老年人肌少症发生风险越低，与既往研究一致。SI由血清肌酐与胱抑素C计算，可用于估计全身肌肉质量，较低的SI常提示肌肉质量较差[15-16]。血清肌酐是常用的肾小球滤过率指标，受肾功能与肌肉质量的双重影响[16-17]。胱抑素C是一种内源性滤过标志物，仅受肾功能影响[15-16]。肾功能稳定个体中，两者的差异反映肌肉质量的变化。因此，SI能客观、简便地预测肌少症风险。此外，研究表明，SI与多种急慢性病的发生、进展及不良预后相关[17-19]。作为常见的肾功能指标，两者已广泛应用于临床和社区筛查，不会增加额外成本，建议医护人员在实践中积极推广SI的应用[17]。
3.2.3　社会隔离
本研究发现，社会隔离老年人的肌少症风险是无社会隔离者的1.7倍，与既往研究一致[20-21]。社会隔离可通过睡眠障碍、神经内分泌紊乱、炎症反应及氧化应激等机制促进肌少症发展[21-23]。同时，社交减少影响心理健康，限制身体活动和社会参与，增加营养不良风险，进一步加剧肌少症发生[24]。肌少症反过来又可导致功能衰退和活动受限，加重社会隔离。老年人面临生理衰退、健康问题增加、社交圈缩小及社会支持缺乏，易遭遇社会隔离。研究表明，其与认知障碍、慢性病、自杀倾向及死亡等相关[20,25-26]。在中国，社会隔离仍是被忽视的公共卫生问题，其对身心健康的影响亟需关注。医务人员除关注老年人身体疾病，应加强社会隔离危害的宣传教育，定期筛查与评估，协助建立良好社交支持网络，以降低肌少症等不良健康结局风险。
3.2.4　BRI
本研究发现，最低和最高BRI组的老年人肌少症风险均显著升高。BRI作为中心性肥胖指标，值越高代表个体越圆，内脏脂肪堆积越明显[7]。有研究表明，BRI与肌肉质量呈正相关[27]。低BRI与营养不良、疲劳、活动耐力下降和肌肉萎缩等相关，增加肌少症风险[11,28]。另有研究指出，BRI与肌少症发病风险呈正相关[29]。高BRI与脂肪组织衰老、功能障碍、异位脂肪沉积及炎症反应有关，促进肌少症发生[30]。此外，高BRI还与胰岛素抵抗、糖尿病等代谢异常相关，这些均是肌少症的危险因素[31]。BRI能准确反映体脂和内脏脂肪比例，在预测肌少症及多种临床结局方面具有优势[8]。因此，作为一种无创、易获取的筛查工具，BRI在老年人肌少症风险评估及不良健康结局预测中具有良好应用前景。本研究亦开发了BRI在线计算器（https://sarcopenia-risk.github.io/BRI-- calculator/）。
3.3　中国老年人肌少症列线图模型具有科学性与实用性
本研究采用LASSO回归筛选潜在预测变量，有效解决多重共线性问题，并通过logistic回归构建列线图。测试集与验证集AUC均>0.7，表明模型区分度良好[31]。Hosmer-Lemeshow检验、校准曲线及DCA曲线进一步验证了模型的校准度和临床有效性。SARC-F、SARC-Calf问卷是现有指南推荐的肌少症筛查工具[1]。但SARC-F的灵敏度较低（3.8%～21.0%），限制了其临床应用[32]。SARC-Calf在SARC-F基础上纳入小腿围，灵敏度提升至50.0%～59.0%[33]，但其准确性受地域、种族差异及水肿等影响。本研究的列线图模型所选指标更加客观、精确，灵敏度为66.4%，优于前者。与Li等[34]基于性别、BMI、血压和疼痛构建的预测模型相比，指标更具特异性，筛查效能更强。因此，该模型可作为经济高效的工具，辅助医护人员识别肌少症高风险人群。
本研究基于年龄、SI、社会隔离、BRI构建中国老年人肌少症列线图模型。经验证，该模型具有良好的预测性能和实用性，可辅助医护人员评估肌少症发病风险并实施干预，从而提高老年人生活质量并优化医疗资源使用。但本研究仅进行内部验证，未来应在大样本、多中心研究中进一步验证模型的预测能力。此外，可考虑应用机器学习方法拟合不同模型，选出最佳模型。
基金
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  • 广东省基础与应用基础研究基金资助项目(2023A1515012522;)
  • 广东省基础与应用基础研究基金资助项目(2025A1515011403)
  • 中山大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(24qnpy178)
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2025年第52卷第11期
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202501314
  • 接收时间：2025-01-20
  • 首发时间：2026-03-18
  • 出版时间：2025-06-10
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  • 收稿日期：2025-01-20
基金
广东省基础与应用基础研究基金资助项目(2023A1515012522;)
广东省基础与应用基础研究基金资助项目(2025A1515011403)
中山大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(24qnpy178)
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    中山大学护理学院，广东 广州 510080

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