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Article(id=1241034442202992732, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241034441380917539, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202501310, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1737302400000, receivedDateStr=2025-01-20, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773815268326, onlineDateStr=2026-03-18, pubDate=1749484800000, pubDateStr=2025-06-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773815268326, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-18, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773815268326, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773815268326, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1241034441380917539, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2025', volume='52', issue='11', pageStart='1921', pageEnd='2112', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773815268130, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773815340947, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1241034746873049765, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241034441380917539, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1241034746873049766, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241034441380917539, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=1947, endPage=1951, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1241034442521759838, articleId=1241034442202992732, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Analysis of pertussis epidemic characteristics and incidence prediction in Jiangsu Province (2011—2023), columnId=1240413921954295836, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Epidemiology and Statistical Methods, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To describe the epidemic characteristics of pertussis in Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2023 and to explore the feasibility of using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for predicting pertussis incidence in the province.

Methods

Epidemiological characteristics of pertussis cases collected for this study were analyzed. Data from January 2011 to June 2023 were used as the training set to construct the ARIMA model, which was then utilized to predict the incidence trend of pertussis from July 2023 to December 2024, thereby evaluating the model’s predictive performance.

Results

A total of 1 970 pertussis cases were reported in Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2023, with an annual incidence rate of 0.19 per 100 000. The number of reported male cases exceeded that of female cases, yielding a sex ratio of 1.08:1. Most cases occurred in infants under one year of age (52.2%, 1 049/1 970), with 83.5% of these infants being under six months old (876/1 049). Pertussis exhibited a seasonal peak during spring and summer, with the highest incidence observed in April. The ARIMA (1,1,3) (0,1,2)12 model was identified as the optimal predictive model for this study, showing a close alignment between the model-fitted incidence trend from 2011 to 2023 and the actual incidence trend. Additionally, the actual monthly incidence from July to December 2023 fell within the 95% confidence interval of the predicted values.

Conclusion

This model effectively fits the incidence of pertussis in Jiangsu Province and holds practical value for short-term prediction and analysis of pertussis in the region.

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目的

描述江苏省2011—2023年百日咳流行特征，探索自回归移动平均模型（autoregressive moving average model，ARIMA）在预测江苏省百日咳发病情况的可行性。

方法

对本研究收集的百日咳个案信息进行流行病学特征分析，以2011年1月—2023年6月的数据为训练集构建ARIMA模型，利用最优模型预测2023年7月—2024年12月百日咳发病趋势，从而评价模型的预测性能。

结果

2011—2023年江苏省累积报告1 970例百日咳病例，年均发病率为0.19/10万；报告的男性病例数多于女性，性别比为1.08∶1；病例主要为<1岁婴幼儿（52.2%，1 049/1 970），其中83.5%不足6个月（876/1 049）。春夏季高发，高峰为春季的4月。ARIMA（1,1,3)(0,1,2)12为本研究的最佳预测模型，其模型拟合的2011—2023年发病趋势与实际发病趋势基本一致，且2023年7—12月各月实际发病数在预测发病数的95%CI内。

结论

该模型能够较好地拟合江苏省百日咳的发病情况，对于该省百日咳的短期预测和分析，具有一定的实践价值。

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许燕，E-mail:
, copyrightStatement=本刊刊出的所有文章不代表中华预防医学会和本刊编委会的观点，除非特别声明。, copyrightOwner=中华预防医学会和四川大学华西公共卫生学院, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=huj77YjcfZRhqpdQZgIRvg==, magXml=NdY9GMQlgvlGKO2mWTb+rA==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=JpurWqa9JAzUlA0PJw2UZQ==, pdfFileSize=815197, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=s29Xk5476lojX6+WbZ1LpA==, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=NNzyV95C+Gkhjzc7SZwBJw==, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=

许燕（1981—），女，硕士，副主任医师，研究方向：免疫规划针对传染病监测

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许燕（1981—），女，硕士，副主任医师，研究方向：免疫规划针对传染病监测

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许燕（1981—），女，硕士，副主任医师，研究方向：免疫规划针对传染病监测

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Epidemiological characteristics and immunization history of pertussis cases in Hebei Province from 2019 to 2022[J]. Chinese Journal of Microbiology and Immunology, 2024, 44(4):288-294.(In Chinese), articleTitle=Epidemiological characteristics and immunization history of pertussis cases in Hebei Province from 2019 to 2022, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241050846067224752, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034442202992732, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2022, volume=22, issue=1, pageStart=1447, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[17], rfOrder=26, authorNames=Wang M, Pan JH, Li XH, journalName=BMC Public Health, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Wang M, Pan JH, Li XH, et al. ARIMA and ARIMA-ERNN models for prediction of pertussis incidence in mainland China from 2004 to 2021[J]. BMC Public Health, 2022, 22(1): 1447., articleTitle=ARIMA and ARIMA-ERNN models for prediction of pertussis incidence in mainland China from 2004 to 2021, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241050846172082358, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034442202992732, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2025, volume=21, issue=1, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[18], rfOrder=27, authorNames=Liu Y, Chen J, Yao N, journalName=Human Vaccines &Immunotherapeutics, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Liu Y, Chen J, Yao N, et al. Pertussis epidemiological surveillance and immunization history in children under five years in a megacity in China from 2019 to 2023[J]. Human Vaccines &Immunotherapeutics, 2025, 21(1): 2460273., articleTitle=Pertussis epidemiological surveillance and immunization history in children under five years in a megacity in China from 2019 to 2023, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241050846331465917, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034442202992732, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2019, volume=147, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[19], rfOrder=28, authorNames=Leong RNF, Wood JG, Turner RM, journalName=Epidemiology and Infection, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Leong RNF, Wood JG, Turner RM, et al. Estimating seasonal variation in Australian pertussis notifications from 1991 to 2016: evidence of spring to summer peaks[J]. 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MethodsX, 2024, 13: 102867., articleTitle=Spatial impact on inflation of Java Island prediction using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)and Generalized Space-Time ARIMA(GSTARIMA), refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1241050840513967081, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034442202992732, awardId=BE2015714, language=CN, fundingSource=江苏省科技厅社会发展重点项目(BE2015714), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1241050830321807846, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034442202992732, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241050830334390760, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034442202992732, companyId=1241050830321807846, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210009, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241050830351167979, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034442202992732, companyId=1241050830321807846, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=江苏省疾病预防控制中心，江苏 南京 210009)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1241050838072882063, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034442202992732, language=EN, label=Figure 1, caption=Seasonal decomposition map of pertussis in Jiangsu Province from January 2011 to June 2023, figureFileSmall=xfEvfd78VhvgYJlg6fBZGg==, figureFileBig=JVgdLI6LxR074J0x8rvJsA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241050838219682709, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034442202992732, language=CN, label=图1, caption=2011年1月—2023年6月江苏省百日咳月发病数季节性分解图, figureFileSmall=xfEvfd78VhvgYJlg6fBZGg==, figureFileBig=JVgdLI6LxR074J0x8rvJsA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241050838492312484, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034442202992732, language=EN, label=Figure 2, caption=Autocorrelation function plot and partial autocorrelation function plot after difference, figureFileSmall=tmKHSXM2BORY1GmZfpcL2Q==, figureFileBig=piB80vw+alM4U7Qj7rbgDw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241050838609753006, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034442202992732, language=CN, label=图2, caption=差分后的序列自相关图和偏自相关图

注：图A为ACF图；图B为PACF图。

, figureFileSmall=tmKHSXM2BORY1GmZfpcL2Q==, figureFileBig=piB80vw+alM4U7Qj7rbgDw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241050838790108088, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034442202992732, language=EN, label=Figure 3, caption=The predicted figure of ARIMA (1,1,3)(0,1,2)12 model, figureFileSmall=D0AguGoPaX0PFs8VlWarqA==, figureFileBig=tp3ztadXP/z7fgkxlKQW/g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241050839209538494, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034442202992732, language=CN, label=图3, caption=ARIMA(1,1,3)(0,1,2)12模型预测图, figureFileSmall=D0AguGoPaX0PFs8VlWarqA==, figureFileBig=tp3ztadXP/z7fgkxlKQW/g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241050839717049290, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034442202992732, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

The evaluation metrics of alternative model

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
备选模型AICP值
ARIMA（1，1，2）（0，1，0）121 072.420.882
ARIMA（1，1，2）（1，1，0）121 029.350.808
ARIMA（1，1，2）（2，1，0）121 011.560.813
ARIMA（1，1，2）（0，1，1）121 009.590.781
ARIMA（1，1，2）（0，1，2）121 008.800.780
ARIMA（1，1，2）（1，1，1）121 009.180.777
ARIMA（1，1，2）（1，1，2）121 010.780.781
ARIMA（1，1，2）（2，1，1）121 010.060.790
ARIMA（1，1，2）（2，1，2）121 011.690.791
ARIMA（1，1，3）（0，1，0）121 068.600.784
ARIMA（1，1，3）（1，1，0）121 026.020.807
ARIMA（1，1，3）（2，1，0）121 007.570.751
ARIMA（1，1，3）（0，1，1）121 005.790.790
ARIMA（1，1，3）（0，1，2）121 005.330.789
ARIMA（1，1，3）（1，1，1）121 005.760.792
ARIMA（1，1，3）（1，1，2）121 007.250.789
ARIMA（1，1，3）（2，1，1）121 006.300.774
ARIMA（1，1，3）（2，1，2）121 007.820.771
), ArticleFig(id=1241050840207782866, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241034442202992732, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

备选模型的评价指标

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
备选模型AICP值
ARIMA（1，1，2）（0，1，0）121 072.420.882
ARIMA（1，1，2）（1，1，0）121 029.350.808
ARIMA（1，1，2）（2，1，0）121 011.560.813
ARIMA（1，1，2）（0，1，1）121 009.590.781
ARIMA（1，1，2）（0，1，2）121 008.800.780
ARIMA（1，1，2）（1，1，1）121 009.180.777
ARIMA（1，1，2）（1，1，2）121 010.780.781
ARIMA（1，1，2）（2，1，1）121 010.060.790
ARIMA（1，1，2）（2，1，2）121 011.690.791
ARIMA（1，1，3）（0，1，0）121 068.600.784
ARIMA（1，1，3）（1，1，0）121 026.020.807
ARIMA（1，1，3）（2，1，0）121 007.570.751
ARIMA（1，1，3）（0，1，1）121 005.790.790
ARIMA（1，1，3）（0，1，2）121 005.330.789
ARIMA（1，1，3）（1，1，1）121 005.760.792
ARIMA（1，1，3）（1，1，2）121 007.250.789
ARIMA（1，1，3）（2，1，1）121 006.300.774
ARIMA（1，1，3）（2，1，2）121 007.820.771
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江苏省2011—2023年百日咳流行特征分析及发病预测
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许燕 , 陈强 , 秦思 , 吴昀 , 李梅 , 孙翔 , 郭宏雄 , 汪志国
现代预防医学 | 流行病与统计方法 2025,52(11): 1947-1951
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现代预防医学 | 流行病与统计方法 2025, 52(11): 1947-1951
江苏省2011—2023年百日咳流行特征分析及发病预测
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许燕 , 陈强, 秦思, 吴昀, 李梅, 孙翔, 郭宏雄, 汪志国
作者信息
  • 江苏省疾病预防控制中心，江苏 南京 210009

    • 许燕（1981—），女，硕士，副主任医师，研究方向：免疫规划针对传染病监测

通讯作者:

许燕，E-mail:
Analysis of pertussis epidemic characteristics and incidence prediction in Jiangsu Province (2011—2023)
Yan XU , Qiang CHEN, Si QIN, Yun WU, Mei LI, Xiang SUN, Hong-xiong GUO, Zhi-guo WANG
Affiliations
  • Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210009, China
出版时间: 2025-06-10 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202501310
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摘要
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目的

描述江苏省2011—2023年百日咳流行特征，探索自回归移动平均模型（autoregressive moving average model，ARIMA）在预测江苏省百日咳发病情况的可行性。

方法

对本研究收集的百日咳个案信息进行流行病学特征分析，以2011年1月—2023年6月的数据为训练集构建ARIMA模型，利用最优模型预测2023年7月—2024年12月百日咳发病趋势，从而评价模型的预测性能。

结果

2011—2023年江苏省累积报告1 970例百日咳病例，年均发病率为0.19/10万；报告的男性病例数多于女性，性别比为1.08∶1；病例主要为<1岁婴幼儿（52.2%，1 049/1 970），其中83.5%不足6个月（876/1 049）。春夏季高发，高峰为春季的4月。ARIMA（1,1,3)(0,1,2)12为本研究的最佳预测模型，其模型拟合的2011—2023年发病趋势与实际发病趋势基本一致，且2023年7—12月各月实际发病数在预测发病数的95%CI内。

结论

该模型能够较好地拟合江苏省百日咳的发病情况，对于该省百日咳的短期预测和分析，具有一定的实践价值。

流行病学特征  /  百日咳  /  预测  /  自回归移动平均模型
Objective

To describe the epidemic characteristics of pertussis in Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2023 and to explore the feasibility of using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for predicting pertussis incidence in the province.

Methods

Epidemiological characteristics of pertussis cases collected for this study were analyzed. Data from January 2011 to June 2023 were used as the training set to construct the ARIMA model, which was then utilized to predict the incidence trend of pertussis from July 2023 to December 2024, thereby evaluating the model’s predictive performance.

Results

A total of 1 970 pertussis cases were reported in Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2023, with an annual incidence rate of 0.19 per 100 000. The number of reported male cases exceeded that of female cases, yielding a sex ratio of 1.08:1. Most cases occurred in infants under one year of age (52.2%, 1 049/1 970), with 83.5% of these infants being under six months old (876/1 049). Pertussis exhibited a seasonal peak during spring and summer, with the highest incidence observed in April. The ARIMA (1,1,3) (0,1,2)12 model was identified as the optimal predictive model for this study, showing a close alignment between the model-fitted incidence trend from 2011 to 2023 and the actual incidence trend. Additionally, the actual monthly incidence from July to December 2023 fell within the 95% confidence interval of the predicted values.

Conclusion

This model effectively fits the incidence of pertussis in Jiangsu Province and holds practical value for short-term prediction and analysis of pertussis in the region.

Epidemiological characteristics  /  Pertussis  /  Prediction  /  Autoregressive integrated moving average model
许燕, 陈强, 秦思, 吴昀, 李梅, 孙翔, 郭宏雄, 汪志国. 江苏省2011—2023年百日咳流行特征分析及发病预测. 现代预防医学, 2025 , 52 (11) : 1947 -1951 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202501310
Yan XU, Qiang CHEN, Si QIN, Yun WU, Mei LI, Xiang SUN, Hong-xiong GUO, Zhi-guo WANG. Analysis of pertussis epidemic characteristics and incidence prediction in Jiangsu Province (2011—2023)[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2025 , 52 (11) : 1947 -1951 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202501310
正文
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百日咳（Pertussis）是由百日咳鲍特菌引起可经飞沫传播的呼吸道疾病[1]，具有很强的传染性（R0=12- 17）[2]，主要临床特征表现为为阵发性痉咳和鸡鸣样吼声，可在成人和儿童中传播，婴幼儿因缺乏免疫保护，一旦感染易并发肺炎、脑病而死亡[3]。世界卫生组织（WHO）的官方网站显示，2023年全球新发报告约16万例百日咳[4]，给社会和家庭带来严重的疾病负担[5]。若能明确百日咳的流行规律及特征，准确地预测百日咳的发病趋势将有助于研判当前疫情形势，合理地分配资源。自回归综合移动平均(autoregressive integrated moving avdaerage，ARIMA)模型作为经典的时间序列预测模型之一，其基本思想是利用既往数据通过自回归模型、差分法等方式预测事件短期发展趋势[6]，目前已广泛应用于医学领域，特别是在丙肝[7]、腮腺炎[8]、COVID-19[9]等传染病发病趋势研究中发挥了重要作用。本研究拟收集江苏省2011—2023年报告的百日咳监测数据，明确其流行特征及规律，同时构建ARIMA模型探讨其在预测江苏省百日咳发病情况的可行性，为今后开展百日咳防控工作提供理论支持。
1　材料与方法
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1.1　资料来源
依托于中国疾病预防控制信息系统，在“传染病监测”模块按照现住址“江苏省”、疾病名称“百日咳”和发病日期“2011年1月1日—2023年12月31日”这三个纳入标准检索研究所需的百日咳个案信息，排除疑似病例。江苏省2011—2023年人口学资料来源于江苏省统计年鉴。
1.2　ARIMA模型构建的基本步骤
（1）平稳化检验：通过时间序列图和单位根（augmented dickey-fuller, ADF）检验判别2011年1月—2023年6月的百日咳月发病数组成的原始序列是否满足平稳性。若ADF检验P>0.05或序列图表现忽高、忽低、波动明显，则此序列不能定义为平稳序列，须应用对数转换或差分处理，直至序列满足平稳性特征；（2）模型识别及参数确定：参数d对应普通差分的阶数，参数D对应季节性差分的阶数，参数p、q值可通过观察自相关系数（autocorrelations function, ACF）和偏自相关系数（partial autocorrelations function, PACF）图的特征来进行选定，参数P、Q值的确定可通过从低阶到高阶依次选取≤2的整数进行尝试[10]；（3）模型参数估计：基于最大似然法估算模型参数，并对模型的残差系数进行白噪声检验，若统计量P>0.05（通过白噪声检验），则表示该模型可以拟合数据。在此基础上比较备选模型的赤池信息准则（Akaike information criterion, AIC）值的大小，选择有最小AIC值的为最优ARIMA模型；（4）模型预测及评价：采用最优ARIMA模型拟合2011年1月—2023年6月江苏省百日咳报告月发病数，预测2023年7月—2024年12月百日咳每月发病情况，与实际发病情况进行比较从而评估模型的效果。
1.3　统计分析
Excel 2016整理、建立百日咳报告发病数据库，R软件（版本：4.3.0）统计分析数据。采用传统流行病学方法描述百日咳的流行特征（人群、时间和地区分布）；应用“forecast”“tseries” “ggplot2”包完成ARIMA模型的构建、数据的拟合与预测。检验水准α=0.05。
2　结果
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2.1　流行特征分析
2011—2023年江苏省累积报告百日咳1 970例（临床诊断病例995例，确诊病例975例），年平均报告发病率为0.19/10万。（1）人群分布：报告病例中男性占51.90%，1 022例；女性占48.10%，948例(48.10%)；男女性别比为1.08∶1。报告的百日咳平均发病年龄为3.14岁，年龄组别为<1岁、1～4岁、5～9岁、10～14岁和≥15岁的百日咳病例数及占比分别为1 049（53.2%）、283（14.4%）、555（28.2%）、64（3.2%）和19（1.0%）例。<1岁的患儿中有876例不足6个月（876/ 1 049）。（2）时间分布：每月均有百日咳患者发病，受季节性因素的影响，春夏季较多。（3）地区分布：省内每个设区市均有百日咳病例报告，其中报告病例数位居前二的分别为南京市536例，苏州市297例。
2.2　时间序列分析结果
以2011年1月—2023年6月的每月发病数构成原始序列，使用stl（）函数进行季节性分解，结果见图1。纳入研究的百日咳数据具有季节性特征，且流行周期为12个月。2011—2015年百日咳发病数呈波动变化趋势，2016—2019年逐步上升，2020年大幅回落，2021—2022年快速上升至高峰。
2.3　模型的识别与诊断结果
时间序列图出现明显上升、下降的趋势，在结合ADF检验统计量不显著（P=0.066），可以判别百日咳数据构成的序列不具有平稳特征，应用diff( )函数进行差分处理直至序列达到稳定性要求。对差分后稳定的序列进行白噪声测试，结果显示此序列不是白噪声序列(P<0.05)，具有分析价值，可以构建ARIMA模型。从季节分解图可以得知百日咳数据具有季节性特征，且流行周期为12个月，并且在考虑了一次普通差分和一次季节性差分后变得稳定，可判断初始模型为：ARIMA（p，1，q）（P，1，Q）12。
接下来，我们对稳定序列绘制ACF图和PACF图去进行参数p、q的初步估计，从图2可以看出ACF图和PACF图存在拖尾的情况，可识别出p=1，q=2或3。由于P、Q参数为不大于2的整数（0，1，2），通过排列组合，前后共有18个备选模型参与测试。对所有模型的残差序列进行白噪声检验，结果如表1所示，即所有模型的残差统计量均不显著(P>0.05)，均通过白噪声检验，在此基础上逐一对比AIC值的系数，选择AIC值最小的ARIMA(1,1,3)(0,1,2)12为最优模型。
应用“forecast”包对2011年1月—2023年6月百日咳月发病数据进行拟合，预测2023年7—12月百日咳月发病数与实际月发病数进行比较验证，结果如图3显示，2023年7—12月实际月发病数与预测值有差距，但都处在预测值的95%CI内。模型拟合的2011—2023年百日咳发病趋势与实际趋势趋于一致。之后用该模型预测江苏省2024年百日咳发病情况，预测出1—6月呈上升趋势，7—12月呈下降趋势，且流行高峰与实际趋于一致。以上结果均可说明此模型具有较高的拟合性和预测性。
3　讨论
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百日咳是疫苗可预防性的呼吸道疾病，在含有百日咳成分的疫苗没有普及接种前，发病率很高。随着疫苗使用导致百日咳传播模式的改变[11]（疫苗接种前：婴幼儿为主要传染源；疫苗时代：青少年/成人为主要传染源），百日咳发病率在在保持多年低水平后，多国（美国、中国、加拿大等）再次呈上升趋势，甚至出现局部地区的暴发[12]，即“百日咳再现”。
2011—2023年江苏省共报告1 970例百日咳，年均报告发病率为0.19/10万，显著低于湖南、山东等其他地方报告的发病率[13-14]。从发病趋势看，本研究发现江苏省2011—2023年百日咳发病趋势与同期全国总体发病趋势基本一致[15]，即2014—2019年缓慢上升，2020年大幅回落，2021—2022年快速上升。2020年总体报告发病数大幅下降的缘由是这一年我们初遇新冠，全国人民为了抗击疫情，多居家外出活动少，并且养成外出戴口罩的习惯，这些大大减少与各种呼吸道病菌接触的机会[13]。从发病年龄看，<1岁这个年龄段人群由于免疫力低下，易感，临床症状较典型，且部分人群无法完成基础免疫，相较其他人群容易感染百日咳和被确诊，是百日咳的高发人群。这一发现与冯蕾等[14]、王乐雨等[16]学者的研究结果类似。从时间上看，作为一种季节性传染病，本文报告的百日咳病例主要发生在春夏季，高峰发生在春季的4月，这一结论与国内多名学者的研究相似[17-18]，但与澳大利亚[19]、巴西等[20]地区的流行特征不一样。从地区分布上看，江苏省每个设区市均有百日咳病例报告，但南京市、苏州市报告的病例数较多，高于江苏省其他城市。原因可能是南京市为省会城市、苏州市靠近上海，经济发达，人员流动多，流动儿童可能因为流动频繁无法按时完成免疫接种程序，而当地临床医生有着较强的诊疗意识，运用更多的检测手段，从而发现和报告较多的百日咳病例[13]。
ARIMA模型作为时间序列预测方法之一，自1970年被学者Box和Jenkings[21]提出以后，因其可以有效捕获数据的周期性、趋势性和随机性，已熟练应用于各种传染病研究中，为传染病的预测和早期预警做出了重大贡献[6,17]。本研究通过利用2011年1月—2023年6月江苏省各月百日咳发病数，建模拟合了ARIMA（1，1，3）（0，1，2）12模型，通过模型预测拟合的2011—2023年的发病趋势与实际发病趋势一致性较高，虽然2023年7— 12月实际百日咳月发病数与模型估算出的预测发病数之间有误差，但都在预测发病数的95%CI内。在不同的研究中，由于研究的时间范围不同以及不同地区特征存在差异，最终模型参数很难一致，本研究拟合的最佳模型与杨瑛莹等[13]学者利用杭州市2011—2022年登记的百日咳数据和Wang等[17]基于全国2004—2019登记的百日咳数据构建的ARIMA模型并不一致。
现阶段，百日咳病例主要来源于医院的被动监测，且患者罹患百日咳的症状大多不典型[5]，可能造成部分百日咳患者被误诊、漏报。之前国内没有明确统一的监测方案，不同地区的实验室检测水平和诊断标准存在差异，这些也可能造成信息偏倚。此外，百日咳的发病受很多因素的影响，如接种史、气候等，本文在构建预测模型时无法排除这些混杂因素的干扰。这些均是本研究存在的局限，也是未来研究所面临的挑战。
综上，模型ARIMA（0,1,0)(0,1,1)12能够较好地拟合江苏省百日咳的发病规律，可短期预测江苏省百日咳的发病情况，对于百日咳的防制工作具有一定的参考价值。
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2025年第52卷第11期
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202501310
  • 接收时间：2025-01-20
  • 首发时间：2026-03-18
  • 出版时间：2025-06-10
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  • 收稿日期：2025-01-20
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江苏省科技厅社会发展重点项目(BE2015714)
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    江苏省疾病预防控制中心，江苏 南京 210009

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
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Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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