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Article(id=1241025213853389634, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241025201983508979, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202412238, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1734019200000, receivedDateStr=2024-12-13, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773813068116, onlineDateStr=2026-03-18, pubDate=1744214400000, pubDateStr=2025-04-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773813068116, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-18, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773813068116, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773813068116, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1241025201983508979, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2025', volume='52', issue='7', pageStart='1153', pageEnd='1344', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773813065285, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773815493878, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1241035388320543403, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241025201983508979, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1241035388320543404, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241025201983508979, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=1188, endPage=1192, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1241025214545449814, articleId=1241025213853389634, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Analysis of the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend prediction of hepatitis B in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region from 2005 to 2023, columnId=1240413921954295836, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Epidemiology and Statistical Methods, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2005 to 2023 and to predict the incidence trend from 2024 to 2026, thereby providing scientific basis for the prevention and control of Hepatitis B.

Methods

Data on HBV incidence were extracted from the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System for descriptive analysis, and the gray prediction model was employed to forecast the incidence trends.Visualization of the data was performed using Origin 2022 software.

Results

From 2005 to 2023, a total of 724 286 cases of HBV were reported in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, with an average annual incidence rate of 172.97 per 100 000 population. Cases were reported across various prefectures and cities, with the highest cumulative incidence observed in Kashgari Prefecture (171 395 cases), Urumqi city (132 256 cases), and Aksu Prefecture (90 145 cases). Among the reported cases, males (401 266 cases) outnumbered females (323 020 cases), with the primary affected demographic being individuals aged 20-39 years. The GM (1,1) model predicted a declining incidence trend for Hepatitis B in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2024 to 2026, with projected rates of 104.809, 97.406, and 90.065 per 100 000 population, respectively.

Conclusion

The overall incidence level of Hepatitis B in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is relatively high; however, a downward trend in incidence is anticipated from 2024 to 2026.It is recommended to enhance the promotion of Hepatitis B vaccination, strengthen prevention and control efforts in key populations and areas, and improve public awareness of Hepatitis B to achieve the goal of eliminating its prevalence.

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目的

分析新疆维吾尔自治区2005—2023年乙型病毒性肝炎（简称乙肝）的流行病学特征，预测2024—2026年乙肝发病趋势，为乙肝防治工作提供科学依据。

方法

从中国疾病预防控制信息系统提取乙肝发病数据进行三间分布描述，并利用灰色预测模型对发病趋势进行预测，使用Origin 2022软件进行图片的可视化展示。

结果

新疆维吾尔自治区2005—2023年累积报告乙肝病例724 286例，年平均发病率为172.97/10万。各地州、市均有病例报告，累积发病数居前三位的是：喀什地区（171 395例）、乌鲁木齐市（132 256例）、阿克苏地区（90 145例）。报告病例中，男性为401 266例，多于女性的323 020例。主要以20～39岁人群发病为主。GM（1，1）模型预测发现，2024—2026年新疆维吾尔自治区乙肝发病率呈下降趋势，分别为104.809/10万、97.406/10万、90.065/10万。

结论

新疆维吾尔自治区乙肝总体发病水平较高，2024—2026年发病趋势将成下降趋势，建议加大乙肝疫苗的宣传工作，加强重点人群和重点地区的乙肝防控工作，提高群众对乙肝的认知，早日实现消除乙肝流行的目标。

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谢娜，E-mail:
, copyrightStatement=本刊刊出的所有文章不代表中华预防医学会和本刊编委会的观点，除非特别声明。, copyrightOwner=中华预防医学会和四川大学华西公共卫生学院, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=dcK8de/wcBL/v3AKfi8nSg==, magXml=ojaSRR9lBYhsBE9lU7UHhg==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=KHGMyHZpXk8yZee/hAJCYQ==, pdfFileSize=719248, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=tL0ssmo9qLYQMJdXZ5EoRw==, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=AeFY/tQyQ0UjlJs7gbLLsw==, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=

乌其尔加甫·才媲丽玛（1998—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：乙肝研究工作

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乌其尔加甫·才媲丽玛（1998—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：乙肝研究工作

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乌其尔加甫·才媲丽玛（1998—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：乙肝研究工作

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Chinese Journal of Health Statistics， 2024，41(3): 382-386.(In Chinese), articleTitle=Comparative analysis of prediction models of global COVID-19 pandemic, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241025228625728062, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241025213853389634, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2024, volume=46, issue=2, pageStart=90, pageEnd=93, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[17], rfOrder=31, authorNames=殷荣荣, 赵江, journalName=皮肤病与性病, refType=null, unstructuredReference=殷荣荣， 赵江.预测模型在麻风病防治中的应用[J].皮肤病与性病，2024，46（2）：90-93., articleTitle=预测模型在麻风病防治中的应用, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241025228684448322, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241025213853389634, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2024, volume=46, issue=2, pageStart=90, pageEnd=93, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[17], rfOrder=32, authorNames=Yin RR, Zhao J, journalName=Journal of Dermatology and Venereology, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Yin RR， Zhao J. 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Jiangsu Journal of Preventive Medicine， 2024，35(1): 119-120.(In Chinese), articleTitle=Application of gray model GM(1，1)in the prediction of typhoid paratyphoid incidence in Suzhou, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1241025224062325136, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241025213853389634, awardId=TSYC202301B097, language=CN, fundingSource=“天山英才”医药卫生高层次人才培养计划(TSYC202301B097), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1241025224162988440, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241025213853389634, awardId=2022TSYCTD0013, language=CN, fundingSource=新疆自然人群队列建设及主动健康创新团队(2022TSYCTD0013), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1241025224267846046, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241025213853389634, awardId=2024D01C70, language=CN, fundingSource=基于中断时间序列分析新疆百日咳免疫策略转换及疫苗保护效果评价(2024D01C70), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1241025216256725989, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241025213853389634, xref=1., ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241025216265114599, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241025213853389634, companyId=1241025216256725989, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=School of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830054, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241025216277697514, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241025213853389634, companyId=1241025216256725989, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1.新疆医科大学公共卫生学院，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830054)]), AuthorCompany(id=1241025216390943735, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241025213853389634, xref=2., ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241025216399332343, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241025213853389634, companyId=1241025216390943735, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2.新疆维吾尔自治区疾病预防控制中心，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1241025221478633793, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241025213853389634, language=EN, label=Figure 1, caption=Reported incidence and incidence rate of hepatitis B in Xinjiang, 2005—2023, figureFileSmall=OGE8BMIj/db/714kRliJ8g==, figureFileBig=tL0ssmo9qLYQMJdXZ5EoRw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241025221554131273, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241025213853389634, language=CN, label=图1, caption=2005—2023年新疆乙肝报告发病数和发病率, figureFileSmall=OGE8BMIj/db/714kRliJ8g==, figureFileBig=tL0ssmo9qLYQMJdXZ5EoRw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241025221755457876, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241025213853389634, language=EN, label=Figure 2, caption=Monthly distribution of hepatitis B incidence in Xinjiang, 2005—2023, figureFileSmall=wX5/5oZUPtpwUanDZAnXbg==, figureFileBig=3Vh1ZFDjXK9b6QsEEF4ZuA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241025221969367385, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241025213853389634, language=CN, label=图2, caption=2005—2023年新疆乙肝发病月份分布, figureFileSmall=wX5/5oZUPtpwUanDZAnXbg==, figureFileBig=3Vh1ZFDjXK9b6QsEEF4ZuA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241025223319933276, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241025213853389634, language=EN, label=Figure 3, caption=Age distribution of hepatitis B incidence (A) and age distribution of people aged 20 to 59 years (B) in Xinjiang, 2005―2023, figureFileSmall=TyVUDjGNqG+ujOqnQqI0MQ==, figureFileBig=m+f9G9QOskrAOtN3YhuGXQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241025223403819359, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241025213853389634, language=CN, label=图3, caption=2005―2023年新疆乙肝发病年龄分布及20～59岁人群年龄分布

注：图A发病年龄分布；图B20～59岁人群年龄分布。

, figureFileSmall=TyVUDjGNqG+ujOqnQqI0MQ==, figureFileBig=m+f9G9QOskrAOtN3YhuGXQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241025223466733926, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241025213853389634, language=EN, label=Figure 4, caption=Fitting curve of projected and actual hepatitis B incidence rates in Xinjiang, 2005—2026, figureFileSmall=qlFSetfh4MQMKKBpK9AEbA==, figureFileBig=zekq2LAdbpSoWXITVzp4vw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241025223533842797, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241025213853389634, language=CN, label=图4, caption=新疆2005—2026年乙肝发病率预测值与实际值拟合曲线, figureFileSmall=qlFSetfh4MQMKKBpK9AEbA==, figureFileBig=zekq2LAdbpSoWXITVzp4vw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241025223642894707, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241025213853389634, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Prevalence of Hepatitis B in Xinjiang by districts, 2005—2023

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份
（年）		地区
乌鲁木齐
市		克拉玛依
市		塔城地区阿勒泰地
区		昌吉回族
自治州		博尔塔拉
蒙古
自治州		伊犁哈萨
克自治州		巴音郭楞
蒙古自治
州		阿克苏
地区		克孜勒苏
柯尔克孜
自治州		喀什
地区		和田
地区		吐鲁番市哈密市
200596.14102.33106.0883.34189.8178.23126.99104.81100.11123.25102.1241.4567.44108.17
2006361.23168.70214.46130.63268.31119.56136.84544.89147.19184.77120.7855.24111.82210.79
2007479.19164.15271.40188.43431.17113.86193.36690.83199.14205.80155.5488.35128.90159.69
2008506.77157.74234.62215.75517.73116.63134.43595.31213.32359.94166.3074.70135.48121.08
2009430.91143.53224.41180.74369.64105.36137.89392.21189.84365.19193.9056.9199.28122.76
2010404.23124.78162.35147.92399.07119.11135.98227.79148.99320.53185.8853.1694.3288.91
2011326.8499.74124.59176.20437.50131.62177.43262.19174.33296.99259.0170.54100.6680.89
2012293.7990.91131.30182.03170.43126.36179.85268.48182.40305.23348.8392.69100.6673.24
2013287.6279.55138.56185.7391.80134.52187.88228.28175.62142.49289.66110.8897.1791.95
2014239.5381.39128.33185.2980.82123.94173.57195.55158.70130.49250.6691.2584.49100.36
2015193.6470.07121.29164.9974.21146.67161.44258.89227.68131.26257.2268.6169.7396.54
2016159.7550.06103.16148.4773.28148.03132.37422.78297.98142.47260.9062.6666.77118.34
2017152.2951.4687.28163.2270.95171.62140.72403.40316.97161.62270.4177.1962.2292.81
2018134.5645.6285.34166.3561.12152.71101.76399.79269.99177.98240.1965.7582.7651.62
2019120.4934.9676.22136.3147.69131.0383.40311.37178.47135.79255.5176.0480.9544.41
202082.3230.6552.3897.9036.18116.3649.93210.93137.8174.16172.3138.0338.3647.58
202180.3131.2075.9784.0647.16103.0359.75245.67174.14122.14208.5249.3546.2572.92
202257.0321.5562.9553.0537.04103.7756.92171.50149.27123.89170.9037.6943.1149.86
202390.3936.49114.29120.0366.13162.1993.24261.71169.88159.16218.2539.5968.00138.44
), ArticleFig(id=1241025223730975097, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241025213853389634, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

2005—2023年新疆乙肝各地州发病率

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份
（年）		地区
乌鲁木齐
市		克拉玛依
市		塔城地区阿勒泰地
区		昌吉回族
自治州		博尔塔拉
蒙古
自治州		伊犁哈萨
克自治州		巴音郭楞
蒙古自治
州		阿克苏
地区		克孜勒苏
柯尔克孜
自治州		喀什
地区		和田
地区		吐鲁番市哈密市
200596.14102.33106.0883.34189.8178.23126.99104.81100.11123.25102.1241.4567.44108.17
2006361.23168.70214.46130.63268.31119.56136.84544.89147.19184.77120.7855.24111.82210.79
2007479.19164.15271.40188.43431.17113.86193.36690.83199.14205.80155.5488.35128.90159.69
2008506.77157.74234.62215.75517.73116.63134.43595.31213.32359.94166.3074.70135.48121.08
2009430.91143.53224.41180.74369.64105.36137.89392.21189.84365.19193.9056.9199.28122.76
2010404.23124.78162.35147.92399.07119.11135.98227.79148.99320.53185.8853.1694.3288.91
2011326.8499.74124.59176.20437.50131.62177.43262.19174.33296.99259.0170.54100.6680.89
2012293.7990.91131.30182.03170.43126.36179.85268.48182.40305.23348.8392.69100.6673.24
2013287.6279.55138.56185.7391.80134.52187.88228.28175.62142.49289.66110.8897.1791.95
2014239.5381.39128.33185.2980.82123.94173.57195.55158.70130.49250.6691.2584.49100.36
2015193.6470.07121.29164.9974.21146.67161.44258.89227.68131.26257.2268.6169.7396.54
2016159.7550.06103.16148.4773.28148.03132.37422.78297.98142.47260.9062.6666.77118.34
2017152.2951.4687.28163.2270.95171.62140.72403.40316.97161.62270.4177.1962.2292.81
2018134.5645.6285.34166.3561.12152.71101.76399.79269.99177.98240.1965.7582.7651.62
2019120.4934.9676.22136.3147.69131.0383.40311.37178.47135.79255.5176.0480.9544.41
202082.3230.6552.3897.9036.18116.3649.93210.93137.8174.16172.3138.0338.3647.58
202180.3131.2075.9784.0647.16103.0359.75245.67174.14122.14208.5249.3546.2572.92
202257.0321.5562.9553.0537.04103.7756.92171.50149.27123.89170.9037.6943.1149.86
202390.3936.49114.29120.0366.13162.1993.24261.71169.88159.16218.2539.5968.00138.44
), ArticleFig(id=1241025223848415616, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241025213853389634, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Forecast value and error of reported hepatitis B incidence rate in Xinjiang, 2005—2023

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份（年）原始值预测值残差相对误差(%)
2005105.10105.100.000.00
2006194.32249.37-55.0428.33
2007257.56240.7416.826.53
2008257.86232.2025.669.95
2009223.88223.720.160.07
2010199.49215.31-15.837.93
2011219.93206.9812.965.89
2012218.00198.7219.288.85
2013197.05190.526.533.32
2014173.18182.39-9.215.32
2015173.43174.34-0.900.52
2016181.59166.3515.248.39
2017184.57158.4326.1414.16
2018163.10150.5712.537.68
2019143.58142.780.800.56
202097.82135.06-37.2438.07
2021116.48127.40-10.929.38
202293.54119.81-26.2628.08
2023131.43112.2819.1614.57
), ArticleFig(id=1241025223932301700, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241025213853389634, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

2005―2023年新疆报告乙肝发病率预测值及误差

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份（年）原始值预测值残差相对误差(%)
2005105.10105.100.000.00
2006194.32249.37-55.0428.33
2007257.56240.7416.826.53
2008257.86232.2025.669.95
2009223.88223.720.160.07
2010199.49215.31-15.837.93
2011219.93206.9812.965.89
2012218.00198.7219.288.85
2013197.05190.526.533.32
2014173.18182.39-9.215.32
2015173.43174.34-0.900.52
2016181.59166.3515.248.39
2017184.57158.4326.1414.16
2018163.10150.5712.537.68
2019143.58142.780.800.56
202097.82135.06-37.2438.07
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202293.54119.81-26.2628.08
2023131.43112.2819.1614.57
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2005-2023年新疆维吾尔自治区乙型肝炎流行特征分析及发病趋势预测
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乌其尔加甫·才媲丽玛 1 , 符文慧 2 , 李娟 2 , 田甜 1 , 叶斯泰·木黑牙提 1 , 哈力木别克·那扎尔别克 1 , 兰兆国 1 , 谢娜 2
现代预防医学 | 流行病与统计方法 2025,52(7): 1188-1192
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现代预防医学 | 流行病与统计方法 2025, 52(7): 1188-1192
2005-2023年新疆维吾尔自治区乙型肝炎流行特征分析及发病趋势预测
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乌其尔加甫·才媲丽玛1, 符文慧2, 李娟2, 田甜1, 叶斯泰·木黑牙提1, 哈力木别克·那扎尔别克1, 兰兆国1, 谢娜2
作者信息
  • 1.新疆医科大学公共卫生学院，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830054
  • 2.新疆维吾尔自治区疾病预防控制中心，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011

    • 乌其尔加甫·才媲丽玛（1998—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：乙肝研究工作

通讯作者:

谢娜，E-mail:
Analysis of the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend prediction of hepatitis B in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region from 2005 to 2023
WUQIERJIAPU Caibilima1, Wen-hui FU2, Juan LI2, Tian TIAN1, YESITAI Muheiyati1, HALIMU Beike Nazarbek1, Zhao-guo LAN1, Na XIE2
Affiliations
  • School of Public Health, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830054, China
出版时间: 2025-04-10 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202412238
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摘要
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目的

分析新疆维吾尔自治区2005—2023年乙型病毒性肝炎（简称乙肝）的流行病学特征，预测2024—2026年乙肝发病趋势，为乙肝防治工作提供科学依据。

方法

从中国疾病预防控制信息系统提取乙肝发病数据进行三间分布描述，并利用灰色预测模型对发病趋势进行预测，使用Origin 2022软件进行图片的可视化展示。

结果

新疆维吾尔自治区2005—2023年累积报告乙肝病例724 286例，年平均发病率为172.97/10万。各地州、市均有病例报告，累积发病数居前三位的是：喀什地区（171 395例）、乌鲁木齐市（132 256例）、阿克苏地区（90 145例）。报告病例中，男性为401 266例，多于女性的323 020例。主要以20～39岁人群发病为主。GM（1，1）模型预测发现，2024—2026年新疆维吾尔自治区乙肝发病率呈下降趋势，分别为104.809/10万、97.406/10万、90.065/10万。

结论

新疆维吾尔自治区乙肝总体发病水平较高，2024—2026年发病趋势将成下降趋势，建议加大乙肝疫苗的宣传工作，加强重点人群和重点地区的乙肝防控工作，提高群众对乙肝的认知，早日实现消除乙肝流行的目标。

乙型病毒性肝炎  /  流行病学特征  /  预测
Objective

To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2005 to 2023 and to predict the incidence trend from 2024 to 2026, thereby providing scientific basis for the prevention and control of Hepatitis B.

Methods

Data on HBV incidence were extracted from the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System for descriptive analysis, and the gray prediction model was employed to forecast the incidence trends.Visualization of the data was performed using Origin 2022 software.

Results

From 2005 to 2023, a total of 724 286 cases of HBV were reported in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, with an average annual incidence rate of 172.97 per 100 000 population. Cases were reported across various prefectures and cities, with the highest cumulative incidence observed in Kashgari Prefecture (171 395 cases), Urumqi city (132 256 cases), and Aksu Prefecture (90 145 cases). Among the reported cases, males (401 266 cases) outnumbered females (323 020 cases), with the primary affected demographic being individuals aged 20-39 years. The GM (1,1) model predicted a declining incidence trend for Hepatitis B in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2024 to 2026, with projected rates of 104.809, 97.406, and 90.065 per 100 000 population, respectively.

Conclusion

The overall incidence level of Hepatitis B in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is relatively high; however, a downward trend in incidence is anticipated from 2024 to 2026.It is recommended to enhance the promotion of Hepatitis B vaccination, strengthen prevention and control efforts in key populations and areas, and improve public awareness of Hepatitis B to achieve the goal of eliminating its prevalence.

Hepatitis B virus  /  Epidemiological characteristics  /  Prediction
乌其尔加甫·才媲丽玛, 符文慧, 李娟, 田甜, 叶斯泰·木黑牙提, 哈力木别克·那扎尔别克, 兰兆国, 谢娜. 2005-2023年新疆维吾尔自治区乙型肝炎流行特征分析及发病趋势预测. 现代预防医学, 2025 , 52 (7) : 1188 -1192 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202412238
WUQIERJIAPU Caibilima, Wen-hui FU, Juan LI, Tian TIAN, YESITAI Muheiyati, HALIMU Beike Nazarbek, Zhao-guo LAN, Na XIE. Analysis of the epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend prediction of hepatitis B in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region from 2005 to 2023[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2025 , 52 (7) : 1188 -1192 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202412238
正文
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乙型病毒性肝炎（简称乙肝），是由乙型肝炎病毒（hepatitis B virus，HBV）引起的以肝脏病变为主要临床表现的传染病，可造成全身多脏器损害，引起急性或慢性乙肝、肝硬化、肝癌等[1]，是严重危害人类健康的公共卫生问题之一[2]。目前全球约有2.57亿名乙肝携带者[3]，我国是乙肝疾病负担较重的国家，1992年1月—2022年9月我国共报告乙肝患者27 633 674例，年均发病率为67.99/10万，其中新疆维吾尔自治区（简称新疆）乙肝报告发病率在2004—2017年之间一直居于全国前列[4]。本研究对新疆2005—2023年乙肝流行病学特征进行分析，并运用灰色预测模型对乙肝发病率水平进行预测，旨在为今后制定有效的乙肝防控策略提供科学依据。
1　资料与方法
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1.1　资料来源
新疆2005—2023年乙肝发病数据来源于“中国疾病预防控制信息系统”。各年度的人口统计学资料，取自《新疆维吾尔自治区统计年鉴》。
1.2　研究方法
描述乙肝发病数据的三间分布特征。使用Excel 2016对2005—2023年新疆乙肝发病率数据构建GM（1，1）模型，预测2024—2026年的新疆乙肝发病率。
1.3　灰色系统GM（1，1）模型的建立
对时间序列数据进行层级比的验证后生成一次累加数列，构建GM（1，1）微分方程模型。采用后验差比值（C）及小概率误差（P）两项指标来评估预测模型的精度。通常，当相对误差保持在20%或以下时，即可视为拟合状况良好。当拟合检验的结果达到预期标准时，这意味着模型具备预测能力，适合用于外推预测。反之，如果拟合检验的结果未能满足标准，那么该模型将不能直接用于外推预测，而须先进行残差修正，待其满足要求后，再进行外推预测。
2　结果
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2.1　乙肝流行概况
新疆2005—2023年累积报告乙肝病例724 286例，死亡167例，年平均发病率为172.97/10万，2022年的发病率最低，为93.54/10万，2008年的最高，为257.85/10万。见图1。
2.2　流行病学特征
2.2.1　地区分布
2005—2023年新疆各地州市均有病例报告，累积发病数居前五位的是:喀什地区、乌鲁木齐市、阿克苏地区、巴音郭楞蒙古自治州（例）和伊犁哈萨克自治州，分别为17 1395、 132 256、 90 145、81 291和66 161例，共计占报告病例总数的72.58%。各地州发病率情况，见表1。
2.2.2　时间分布
2005—2023年新疆乙肝发病总体呈下降趋势。每月均有乙肝报告病例。3月累积报告发病数最多，为70 330例，占报告总病例数的9.71%；报告最少的是10月，50 695例，占报告总病例数的7.00%，见图2。
2.2.3　人群分布
2.2.3.1　性别分布
2005—2023年乙肝报告病例中，男性（401 266例）和女性（323 020例）发病数之比为1.24∶1。2005—2023年间男性和女性的乙肝发病人数比值由1.50下降至1.20。
2.2.3.2　年龄分布
2005—2023年各年龄组均有乙肝报告病例。以20～59岁成年人群高发，占总发病人数的77.17%，见图3A。成年人群中主要以20～39岁的青年发病为主，占总发病人数的44.03%。其余40～49岁、50～59岁年龄组分别占总发病人数的19.42%、13.73%，见图3B。
2.2.3.3　职业分布
2005—2023年乙肝发病最多的职业是农民，占37.01%，其次家务及待业人员占12.66%，离退人员占8.71%，干部人员占8.42%，工人占7.97%。
2.3　乙肝发病率的灰色模型预测
2.3.1　GM（1，1）模型的建立
基于原始时间序列，我们构建了GM（1，1）模型方程。得出乙肝发病率预测模型参数：α=0.008、μ=1 035.138，据此建立新疆乙肝发病率的GM（1，1）灰色预测模型为
2.3.2　模型精度检验
新疆乙肝发病率的GM（1，1）模型具有较低的后验差比值C= 0.188<0.35，这表明其拟合精度高，且平均相对误差为10.40%，适合用于未来年份的数据外推预测。见表2。
2.3.3　外推预测
应用GM（1，1）模型对2024—2026年新疆乙肝发病率进行外推预测，结果显示，2024—2026年新疆乙肝发病率预测值分别为104.809/10万、97.406/10万、90.065/10万，见图4。
3　讨论
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本研究发现， 2005—2023年新疆乙肝平均报告发病率高于全国2004—2017年的平均发病率（77.47/10万）以及2011—2021年的平均发病率（71.78/10万）[4-5]。2005—2008年期新疆乙肝发病率呈逐年上升的趋势，这可能与2004年我国开始使用网络直报的传染病监测报告系统后，漏报的情况有所减少有关[6]。2012年开始新疆乙肝报告发病率明显呈下降趋势，这一现象可能与免疫方案的调整有关联。自2012年起，针对乙肝阳性母亲所生的新生儿开始实施免费接种免疫球蛋白的接种政策[7]。其次，2013年开始，新疆正式启动乙肝病例的试点监测项目，对乙肝的监测工作进行了加强。
2005—2023年，新疆各个地区乙肝报告发病率存在明显差异，2005—2015年乙肝发病主要以北疆地区为主， 2016—2023年主要以南疆地区发病为主。结合《新疆维吾尔自治区统计年鉴》等资料分析，这可能与地区城市化水平、人口数量、教育水平、健康生活习惯、医疗设施以及政策依从性的变化等因素有关[8]，提示需要进一步加强乙肝高发地区的预防和控制工作。
2005—2023年新疆乙肝男性发病高于女性，与以往研究一致[9-10]，这可能是因为男性更多的不良生活习惯、社会活跃度、吸毒、不规范的性行为、剃须或纹身等因素，增加了感染的风险[11]，有研究表明，由于女性体内的雌激素对女性HBV感染的免疫力有影响，因此女性对HBV的感染免疫力可能比男性更强[12]。乙肝的高发职业主要集中在农民、家务及待业人员，这与该部分人群经济状况不佳、教育水平较低、防护意识薄弱有关[13]。农民、家务待业人员，特别是男性是新疆防治乙肝的核心人群，应向这些关键群体普及乙肝的感染风险及其防治措施，认识到接种乙肝疫苗的重要性，了解乙肝的传播方式及正确的预防策略，提高自我保护意识，从而有效减少新疆地区乙肝的发病。新疆乙肝发病在各年龄组中均有分布，但主要集中在20～49岁（63.45%）人群，全国乙肝流行病学分析表明我国乙肝病例超过60%集中于20～49岁，与本研究结果一致[14]。青年组（20～29岁）发病占比最高，而2017年新疆抗体水平调查显示新疆26～29岁人群乙肝表面抗体（HBsAb）阳性率较低[15]，提示新疆乙肝发病存在年轻化的现象，需加强对该部分人群乙肝的防治工作，加强接种乙肝疫苗的宣传力度，提高对乙肝的认知程度，以有效降低新疆乙肝发病率。
GM（1，1）模型在预测传染病的发展趋势方面得到了广泛应用，并在新型冠状病毒感染[16]、麻风病[17]、伤寒[18]等的流行趋势预测中显示了良好的结果。本次构建的预测乙肝发病趋势的GM（1，1）模型，其预测结果与实际数据基本一致，平均相对误差达到了10.40%，说明拟合效果良好。预计未来三年新疆乙肝的发病率将呈现逐渐下降的趋势，但发病率水平仍然较高。
本研究存在一定的局限性，GM（1，1）模型主要侧重于反映数据的规律性，而忽略了其他潜在的影响因素，因此无法全面展现多种因素共同作用的综合效应[18]。接下来的研究应该基于影响乙肝发病的因素来进行，模型拟合与预测将可能更加精确地体现实际情况。
新疆仍是我国乙肝发病率较高的地区。为了有效控制新疆的乙肝高发现状，需要加强对成人乙肝疫苗的推广力度，开展健康教育活动，增强公众对乙肝的认知程度，实现消除乙肝流行的目标。
基金
收起
  • “天山英才”医药卫生高层次人才培养计划(TSYC202301B097)
  • 新疆自然人群队列建设及主动健康创新团队(2022TSYCTD0013)
  • 基于中断时间序列分析新疆百日咳免疫策略转换及疫苗保护效果评价(2024D01C70)
文献
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2025年第52卷第7期
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202412238
  • 接收时间：2024-12-13
  • 首发时间：2026-03-18
  • 出版时间：2025-04-10
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  • 收稿日期：2024-12-13
基金
“天山英才”医药卫生高层次人才培养计划(TSYC202301B097)
新疆自然人群队列建设及主动健康创新团队(2022TSYCTD0013)
基于中断时间序列分析新疆百日咳免疫策略转换及疫苗保护效果评价(2024D01C70)
作者信息
    1.新疆医科大学公共卫生学院，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830054
    2.新疆维吾尔自治区疾病预防控制中心，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830011

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
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Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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