Article(id=1241023937296003772, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241023927812682133, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202409469, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1727193600000, receivedDateStr=2024-09-25, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773812763761, onlineDateStr=2026-03-18, pubDate=1739116800000, pubDateStr=2025-02-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773812763761, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-18, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773812763761, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773812763761, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1241023927812682133, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2025', volume='52', issue='3', pageStart='385', pageEnd='576', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773812761500, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773812858867, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1241024336258200259, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241023927812682133, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1241024336258200260, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241023927812682133, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=430, endPage=435, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1241023937656713933, articleId=1241023937296003772, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Analysis of the burden of respiratory syncytial virus lower respiratory tract infections in China from 1992 to 2021, columnId=1240413921954295836, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Epidemiology and Statistical Methods, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective To analyze the current status and trends of the burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) lower respiratory tract infections in China from 1992 to 2021, providing a reference for the prevention and control of RSV infections in the country.
Methods The burden of disease was assessed using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Data on DALYs for RSV lower respiratory tract infections in China from 1992 to 2021 were extracted from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study database. Join point regression analysis was employed to evaluate trends in disease burden, and an age-period-cohort (APC) model was constructed to explore the impacts of age, period, and birth cohort on disease burden.
Results In 2021, the DALYs rate for RSV lower respiratory tract infections in China was 3.08 per 100 000, with the highest DALYs number (35 400 person-years) and rate (45.63 per 100 000) observed in the 0-4 age group, followed by those aged 65 and older (5 300 person-years, 2.68 per 100 000). From 1992 to 2021, the DALYs rate for RSV lower respiratory tract infections in China showed a declining trend (AAPC=-12.96%, P<0.001), with the DALYs rate remaining relatively stable from 2012 to 2016 (AAPC=-1.61%, P=0.198), while other intervals exhibited a downward trend, particularly from 2019 to 2021, which had the most significant decline (AAPC=-57.90%, P<0.001). Among different age groups, the 0-4 age group experienced the largest decrease in DALYs rate (AAPC=-12.02%, P<0.001), whereas the decline was the smallest in those aged 65 and older (AAPC=-5.19%, P<0.001). The APC model indicated that age, period, and birth cohort effects influenced the changes in DALYs rates for RSV lower respiratory tract infections in China, with DALYs rates initially decreasing and then increasing with age, while declining with advancing periods and shifting birth cohorts.
Conclusion The burden of RSV lower respiratory tract infections in China showed a downward trend from 1992 to 2021, predominantly affecting children and the elderly.
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目的 分析1992—2021年中国呼吸道合胞病毒（respiratory syncytial virus，RSV）下呼吸道感染疾病负担现状、变化趋势，为中国RSV感染防控提供参考。
方法 采用伤残调整寿命年（disability-adjusted life year, DALYs）数据资料评价疾病负担，从2021年全球疾病负担研究数据库提取1992—2021年中国RSV下呼吸道感染DALYs的数据资料，采用joinpoint回归分析疾病负担变化趋势，构建年龄 - 时期 - 队列（age-period-cohort, APC）模型探讨年龄、时期和出生队列对疾病负担的影响。
结果 2021年，中国RSV下呼吸道感染DALYs率为3.08/10万，0～4岁年龄组的DALYs率（3.54万人年）、DALYs率（45.63/10万）均最高，其次为65岁及以上年龄组(0.53万人年、2.68/10万)。1992—2021年，中国RSV下呼吸道感染DALYs率呈下降趋势（AAPC=-12.96%，P<0.001），2012—2016年DALYs率基本平稳（AAPC=-1.61%，P=0.198），其他区间段呈下降趋势，其中2019—2021年下降幅度最大（AAPC=-57.90%，P<0.001）；不同年龄组中，0～4岁年龄组DALYs率下降幅度最大（AAPC=-12.02%，P<0.001），65岁及以上年龄组下降幅度最小（AAPC=-5.19%，P<0.001）。APC模型显示，年龄、时期和出生队列效应影响着中国RSV下呼吸道感染DALYs率的变化，DALYs率随着年龄的增长先下降后上升，随着时期的递进、出生队列的推移而下降。
结论 1992—2021年中国RSV下呼吸道感染疾病负担呈下降趋势，疾病负担主要集中儿童及老年人群。
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本刊刊出的所有文章不代表中华预防医学会和本刊编委会的观点，除非特别声明。, copyrightOwner=中华预防医学会和四川大学华西公共卫生学院, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=pQm3sUVv/4TJ3AONiD9ZKQ==, magXml=Mx+f0ZaPekTBXSbNPBX4yg==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=ZTZaq88H6bvwooGRjhIX5Q==, pdfFileSize=663395, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=oSlrcfxUl3HkKuV6Eujxkg==, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=egQaUi9TMUx0urrvNOB7IQ==, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=
林凯（1990—），男，本科，主管医师，研究方向：传染病预防控制
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14(5): 1071., articleTitle=Collateral impact of public health and social measures on respiratory virus activity during the COVID-19 pandemic 2020-2021, refAbstract=null)], funds=null, companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1241023940202656540, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023937296003772, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241023940252988195, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023937296003772, companyId=1241023940202656540, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Infectious Disease Prevention and Control Department, Yantian District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen,Guangdong 518000, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241023940273959716, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023937296003772, companyId=1241023940202656540, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=深圳市盐田区疾病预防控制中心传染病防制科，广东 深圳 518000)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1241023945596530872, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023937296003772, language=EN, label=Figure 1, caption=
Trends in the DALYs rate of RSV lower respiratory tract infection in China using Joinpoint regression from 1992 to 2021, figureFileSmall=WaQIFkiWoMPqO36spumlgw==, figureFileBig=oSlrcfxUl3HkKuV6Eujxkg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241023945718165699, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023937296003772, language=CN, label=图1, caption=
1992—2021年中国RSV下呼吸道感染DALYs率joinpoint拟合趋势, figureFileSmall=WaQIFkiWoMPqO36spumlgw==, figureFileBig=oSlrcfxUl3HkKuV6Eujxkg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241023945999184090, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023937296003772, language=EN, label=Figure 2, caption=
Age-period-cohort model of the DALYs rate of RSV lower respiratory tract infection in China from 1992 to 2021(A) Local offset; (B) Longitudinal age curve; (C) Period RR; (D) Cohort RR, figureFileSmall=qSnPBADDfz9YtYdZ0dm6bA==, figureFileBig=uzUloFkFBzFHO7aIpTQ+MQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241023946276008162, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023937296003772, language=CN, label=图2, caption=
1992—2021年中国RSV下呼吸道感染DALYs率的年龄-时期-队列模型注：图A局部漂移值；图B纵向年龄曲线；图C时期率比；图D队列率比。
, figureFileSmall=qSnPBADDfz9YtYdZ0dm6bA==, figureFileBig=uzUloFkFBzFHO7aIpTQ+MQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241023946406031595, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023937296003772, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=
Current status of the DALYs of RSV lower respiratory tract infection in China in 2021
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
| 年龄组（岁） | DALYs数（万人年） | DALYs率（1/10万） |
|---|
| 总人群 | 4.38 | 3.08 |
| 0～4 | 3.54 | 45.63 |
| 5～14 | 0.05 | 0.28 |
| 15～49 | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| 50～64 | 0.11 | 0.38 |
| ≥65 | 0.53 | 2.68 |
), ArticleFig(id=1241023946540249337, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023937296003772, language=CN, label=表1, caption=
2021年中国RSV下呼吸道感染DALYs的现状
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
| 年龄组（岁） | DALYs数（万人年） | DALYs率（1/10万） |
|---|
| 总人群 | 4.38 | 3.08 |
| 0～4 | 3.54 | 45.63 |
| 5～14 | 0.05 | 0.28 |
| 15～49 | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| 50～64 | 0.11 | 0.38 |
| ≥65 | 0.53 | 2.68 |
), ArticleFig(id=1241023946624135421, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023937296003772, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=
Changes in the DALYs rate of RSV lower respiratory tract infection in China from 1992 to 2021
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
| 年龄组（岁） | 指标 | 区间段（年） | 变化值（95%CI）（%） | t值 | P值 |
|---|
| 总人群 | APC | 1992—1996 | -7.80(-9.22～-6.36) | -11.290 | <0.001 |
| | 1996—2004 | -10.82(-11.40～-10.23) | -37.659 | <0.001 |
| | 2004—2012 | -8.82(-9.42～-8.22) | -30.396 | <0.001 |
| | 2012—2016 | -1.61(-3.99～0.84) | -1.423 | 0.178 |
| | 2016—2019 | -8.03(-12.44～-3.40) | -3.681 | 0.003 |
| | 2019—2021 | -57.90(-59.91～-55.77) | -38.031 | <0.001 |
| AAPC | 1992—2021 | -12.96(-13.57～-12.35) | -38.727 | <0.001 |
| 0～4 | APC | 1992—1997 | -3.58(-4.38～-2.78) | -9.533 | <0.001 |
| | 1997—2001 | -7.11(-8.81～-5.38) | -8.622 | <0.001 |
| | 2001—2011 | -9.53(-9.83～-9.22) | -64.083 | <0.001 |
| | 2011—2016 | -4.82(-5.93～-3.70) | -9.132 | <0.001 |
| | 2016—2019 | -11.70(-14.91～-8.37) | -7.270 | <0.001 |
| | 2019—2021 | -55.40(-57.02～-53.72) | -47.182 | <0.001 |
| AAPC | 1992—2021 | -12.02(-12.49～-11.55) | -46.712 | <0.001 |
| 5～14 | APC | 1992—1996 | -2.58(-3.94～-1.21) | -3.961 | 0.001 |
| | 1996—2006 | -7.15(-7.52～-6.77) | -38.897 | <0.001 |
| | 2006—2010 | 4.80(2.50～7.14) | 4.487 | <0.001 |
| | 2010—2019 | -3.74(-4.20～-3.27) | -16.712 | <0.001 |
| | 2019—2021 | -56.49(-58.37～-54.52) | -39.839 | <0.001 |
| AAPC | 1992—2021 | -8.78(-9.22～-8.35) | -37.806 | <0.001 |
| 15～49 | APC | 1992—1998 | -1.47(-1.96～-0.97) | -6.294 | <0.001 |
| | 1998—2007 | -3.77(-4.09～-3.46) | -25.385 | <0.001 |
| | 2007—2010 | 2.75(-0.29～5.88) | 1.952 | 0.073 |
| | 2010—2013 | -1.68(-4.59～1.31) | -1.220 | 0.244 |
| | 2013—2019 | 2.23(1.55～2.92) | 7.108 | <0.001 |
| | 2019—2021 | -55.61(-56.92～-54.25) | -58.478 | <0.001 |
| AAPC | 1992—2021 | -6.33(-6.77～-5.88) | -26.884 | <0.001 |
| 50～64 | APC | 1992—1997 | -1.50(-1.94～-1.05) | -7.059 | <0.001 |
| | 1997—2003 | -4.44(-4.87～-4.01) | -21.263 | <0.001 |
| | 2003—2006 | -3.39(-5.32～-1.41) | -3.605 | 0.002 |
| | 2006—2019 | -0.04(-0.16～0.08) | -0.768 | 0.453 |
| | 2019—2021 | -56.08(-56.96～-55.18) | -86.113 | <0.001 |
| AAPC | 1992—2021 | -6.99(-7.24～-6.75) | -53.943 | <0.001 |
| ≥65 | APC | 1992—2004 | 0.22(0.08～0.37) | 3.272 | 0.006 |
| | 2004—2007 | -1.75(-4.15～0.71) | -1.543 | 0.147 |
| | 2007—2010 | 3.89(1.36～6.49) | 3.342 | 0.005 |
| | 2010—2013 | -1.31(-3.71～1.16) | -1.150 | 0.271 |
| | 2013—2019 | 0.45(-0.11～1.00) | 1.743 | 0.105 |
| | 2019—2021 | -55.51(-56.6～-54.40) | -70.832 | <0.001 |
| AAPC | 1992—2021 | -5.19(-5.61～-4.76) | -23.403 | <0.001 |
), ArticleFig(id=1241023946775130379, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023937296003772, language=CN, label=表2, caption=
1992—2021年中国RSV下呼吸道感染DALYs率的变化情况
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
| 年龄组（岁） | 指标 | 区间段（年） | 变化值（95%CI）（%） | t值 | P值 |
|---|
| 总人群 | APC | 1992—1996 | -7.80(-9.22～-6.36) | -11.290 | <0.001 |
| | 1996—2004 | -10.82(-11.40～-10.23) | -37.659 | <0.001 |
| | 2004—2012 | -8.82(-9.42～-8.22) | -30.396 | <0.001 |
| | 2012—2016 | -1.61(-3.99～0.84) | -1.423 | 0.178 |
| | 2016—2019 | -8.03(-12.44～-3.40) | -3.681 | 0.003 |
| | 2019—2021 | -57.90(-59.91～-55.77) | -38.031 | <0.001 |
| AAPC | 1992—2021 | -12.96(-13.57～-12.35) | -38.727 | <0.001 |
| 0～4 | APC | 1992—1997 | -3.58(-4.38～-2.78) | -9.533 | <0.001 |
| | 1997—2001 | -7.11(-8.81～-5.38) | -8.622 | <0.001 |
| | 2001—2011 | -9.53(-9.83～-9.22) | -64.083 | <0.001 |
| | 2011—2016 | -4.82(-5.93～-3.70) | -9.132 | <0.001 |
| | 2016—2019 | -11.70(-14.91～-8.37) | -7.270 | <0.001 |
| | 2019—2021 | -55.40(-57.02～-53.72) | -47.182 | <0.001 |
| AAPC | 1992—2021 | -12.02(-12.49～-11.55) | -46.712 | <0.001 |
| 5～14 | APC | 1992—1996 | -2.58(-3.94～-1.21) | -3.961 | 0.001 |
| | 1996—2006 | -7.15(-7.52～-6.77) | -38.897 | <0.001 |
| | 2006—2010 | 4.80(2.50～7.14) | 4.487 | <0.001 |
| | 2010—2019 | -3.74(-4.20～-3.27) | -16.712 | <0.001 |
| | 2019—2021 | -56.49(-58.37～-54.52) | -39.839 | <0.001 |
| AAPC | 1992—2021 | -8.78(-9.22～-8.35) | -37.806 | <0.001 |
| 15～49 | APC | 1992—1998 | -1.47(-1.96～-0.97) | -6.294 | <0.001 |
| | 1998—2007 | -3.77(-4.09～-3.46) | -25.385 | <0.001 |
| | 2007—2010 | 2.75(-0.29～5.88) | 1.952 | 0.073 |
| | 2010—2013 | -1.68(-4.59～1.31) | -1.220 | 0.244 |
| | 2013—2019 | 2.23(1.55～2.92) | 7.108 | <0.001 |
| | 2019—2021 | -55.61(-56.92～-54.25) | -58.478 | <0.001 |
| AAPC | 1992—2021 | -6.33(-6.77～-5.88) | -26.884 | <0.001 |
| 50～64 | APC | 1992—1997 | -1.50(-1.94～-1.05) | -7.059 | <0.001 |
| | 1997—2003 | -4.44(-4.87～-4.01) | -21.263 | <0.001 |
| | 2003—2006 | -3.39(-5.32～-1.41) | -3.605 | 0.002 |
| | 2006—2019 | -0.04(-0.16～0.08) | -0.768 | 0.453 |
| | 2019—2021 | -56.08(-56.96～-55.18) | -86.113 | <0.001 |
| AAPC | 1992—2021 | -6.99(-7.24～-6.75) | -53.943 | <0.001 |
| ≥65 | APC | 1992—2004 | 0.22(0.08～0.37) | 3.272 | 0.006 |
| | 2004—2007 | -1.75(-4.15～0.71) | -1.543 | 0.147 |
| | 2007—2010 | 3.89(1.36～6.49) | 3.342 | 0.005 |
| | 2010—2013 | -1.31(-3.71～1.16) | -1.150 | 0.271 |
| | 2013—2019 | 0.45(-0.11～1.00) | 1.743 | 0.105 |
| | 2019—2021 | -55.51(-56.6～-54.40) | -70.832 | <0.001 |
| AAPC | 1992—2021 | -5.19(-5.61～-4.76) | -23.403 | <0.001 |
), ArticleFig(id=1241023946900959509, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023937296003772, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=
Age-period-cohort model estimable function Wald χ2 test results of the DALYs rate for RSV lower respiratory tract infection in China from 1992 to 2021
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
| 零假设 | Waldχ2值 | P值 |
|---|
| 净漂移值=0 | 384.564 | <0.001 |
| 总年龄偏差=0 | 48476.618 | <0.001 |
| 总时期偏差=0 | 41.384 | <0.001 |
| 总队列偏差=0 | 2927.780 | <0.001 |
| 全时期RR值=1 | 429.030 | <0.001 |
| 全队列RR值=1 | 70972.524 | <0.001 |
| 所有局部漂移值 | 2909.470 | <0.001 |
), ArticleFig(id=1241023947022594334, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023937296003772, language=CN, label=表3, caption=
1992—2021年中国RSV下呼吸道感染DALYs率的年龄- 时期 - 队列模型可估计函数Waldχ2检验结果
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
| 零假设 | Waldχ2值 | P值 |
|---|
| 净漂移值=0 | 384.564 | <0.001 |
| 总年龄偏差=0 | 48476.618 | <0.001 |
| 总时期偏差=0 | 41.384 | <0.001 |
| 总队列偏差=0 | 2927.780 | <0.001 |
| 全时期RR值=1 | 429.030 | <0.001 |
| 全队列RR值=1 | 70972.524 | <0.001 |
| 所有局部漂移值 | 2909.470 | <0.001 |
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