Article(id=1241023931637879297, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241023927812682133, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202410147, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1728489600000, receivedDateStr=2024-10-10, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773812762411, onlineDateStr=2026-03-18, pubDate=1739116800000, pubDateStr=2025-02-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773812762411, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-18, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773812762411, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773812762411, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1241023927812682133, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2025', volume='52', issue='3', pageStart='385', pageEnd='576', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773812761500, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773812858867, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1241024336258200259, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241023927812682133, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1241024336258200260, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241023927812682133, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=385, endPage=391, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1241023931973423625, articleId=1241023931637879297, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Prospective cohort study on the glycemic profile, genetic susceptibility, and risk of chronic kidney disease, columnId=1240413921954295836, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Epidemiology and Statistical Methods, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To investigate the longitudinal association between glycemic profile and the incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD), as well as the impact of genetic susceptibility on this association.

Methods

Utilizing baseline survey and genetic data from the UK Biobank, Cox proportional hazards models were employed to assess the correlation between baseline hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels and glycemic status with the onset of CKD, along with the role of genetic susceptibility in this relationship.

Results

A total of 81 059 participants were included in this study, with 15.2% classified as prediabetic and 6.9%as diabetic. During a median follow-up period of 13.5 years, 3 637 new cases of CKD were observed. Multivariable-adjusted models indicated that both type 2 diabetes (T2D) and prediabetes significantly increased the risk of developing CKD compared to participants with normal blood glucose levels, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of 2.04 (95%CI:1.85-2.25) and 1.09 (95%CI: 1.00-1.18), respectively. A clear risk gradient was observed when HbA1c was below the diabetes threshold; participants with HbA1c ≥6.6% had approximately double the risk of CKD compared to those with HbA1c <5.0%. A significant multiplicative interaction between glycemic status and genetic risk was found (P interaction <0.001). In all genetic risk groups, hyperglycemia significantly increased the risk of CKD. Among participants with high genetic risk, those with both T2D and high genetic risk exhibited the highest CKD risk (HR=6.67, 95%CI: 5.75-7.74) compared to those with low genetic risk and normal blood glucose.

Conclusion

Glycemic status is associated with the risk of CKD across all genetic risk groups.

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目的

探究血糖谱与新发慢性肾病(chronic kidney disease,CKD)的纵向关联,以及遗传易感性对这种关联的影响。

方法

基于英国生物银行(UK Biobank)的基线调查及基因检测数据,使用Cox比例风险模型评估基线糖化血红蛋白(hemoglobin A1c,HbA1c)和血糖状态与新发CKD的相关性,以及遗传易感性在这种关联中的作用。

结果

本研究共纳入81 059名研究对象,其中糖尿病前期和糖尿病患者各占15.2%和6.9%。中位随访时间13.5年期间,共观察到3 637例新发CKD。多变量调整模型显示,与血糖正常的参与者相比,2型糖尿病(T2D)和糖尿病前期均增加CKD的发病风险,风险比(hazard ratios,HR)及95%CI分别为2.04(95%CI:1.85~2.25)和1.09(95%CI:1.00~1.18)。在HbA1c低于糖尿病阈值时,可观察到明显的风险梯度;与HbA1c<5.0%相比,HbA1c ≥6.6%的参与者CKD风险增大约2倍。血糖状态与遗传风险之间存在显著的乘法交互作用(P interaction<0.001)。在不同遗传风险组中,高血糖均显著增加CKD风险。与低遗传风险且血糖正常的参与者相比,同时患有T2D和高遗传风险参与者的CKD风险最高(HR=6.67, 95%CI:5.75~7.74)。

结论

在所有遗传风险组的人群中,血糖状态均与CKD风险相关。

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吴功华,E-mail:
, copyrightStatement=本刊刊出的所有文章不代表中华预防医学会和本刊编委会的观点,除非特别声明。, copyrightOwner=中华预防医学会和四川大学华西公共卫生学院, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=d6i7JCqkPbTiZf7F3FX3YA==, magXml=y3qpOYxFU52Q8CwCSKoMhA==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=HIhgl7C4L4aZ/xUkHaTkEA==, pdfFileSize=994583, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=eoOrzOKna2znZWagRagUFA==, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=twTCI1egOlM1LVaRP1xlzA==, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=

张婷(1998—),女,硕士在读,研究方向:卫生统计方法与应用

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张婷(1998—),女,硕士在读,研究方向:卫生统计方法与应用

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American Journal of Kidney Diseases, 2023, 82(3): 267-278., articleTitle=Long-term Visit-to-Visit Variability in Hemoglobin A(1c)and Kidney-Related Outcomes in Persons With Diabetes, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241023945802043683, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023931637879297, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2020, volume=12, issue=1, pageStart=44, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[28], rfOrder=28, authorNames=Lewis CM, Vassos E, journalName=Genome Medicine, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Lewis CM, Vassos E. Polygenic risk scores: from research tools to clinical instruments[J]. Genome Medicine, 2020, 12(1): 44., articleTitle=Polygenic risk scores: from research tools to clinical instruments, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241023945919484205, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023931637879297, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2022, volume=16, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[29], rfOrder=29, authorNames=Thompson DJ, Wells D, Selzam S, journalName=medRxiv, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Thompson DJ, Wells D, Selzam S, et al. UK biobank release and systematic evaluation of optimised polygenic risk scores for 53 diseases and quantitative traits[J]. medRxiv, 2022, 16: 22276246., articleTitle=UK biobank release and systematic evaluation of optimised polygenic risk scores for 53 diseases and quantitative traits, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1241023941079258106, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023931637879297, awardId=82273740, language=CN, fundingSource=国家自然科学基金(82273740), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1241023941188308995, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023931637879297, awardId=82073667, language=CN, fundingSource=国家自然科学基金(82073667), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1241023941427384339, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023931637879297, awardId=null, language=CN, fundingSource=2022年引导专项四川省配套-主动健康精准预防医学, fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1241023933563064906, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023931637879297, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241023933571453515, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023931637879297, companyId=1241023933563064906, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health / West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241023933579842124, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023931637879297, companyId=1241023933563064906, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=四川大学华西公共卫生学院/华西第四医院流行病与卫生统计学系,四川 成都 610041)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1241023939724497769, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023931637879297, language=EN, label=Figure 1, caption=Cumulative incidence of CKD in different exposure groups, figureFileSmall=+0Edxx1TcdjK7ZON+Bf7bw==, figureFileBig=eoOrzOKna2znZWagRagUFA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241023939841938289, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023931637879297, language=CN, label=图1, caption=不同暴露组中CKD的累积发病率

注:图A为根据血糖状态分组的CKD累积发病率;图B为根据遗传风险分组的CKD累积发病率。

, figureFileSmall=+0Edxx1TcdjK7ZON+Bf7bw==, figureFileBig=eoOrzOKna2znZWagRagUFA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241023940093596554, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023931637879297, language=EN, label=Figure 2, caption=Restricted cubic spline analysis of HbA1c, polygenic genetic risk and the risk of new-onset CKD, figureFileSmall=0z6hDcSGfqAagY19z+/pRg==, figureFileBig=E5qeCC+F83mdCg9O30/6KA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241023940202648471, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023931637879297, language=CN, label=图2, caption=糖化血红蛋白、多基因遗传风险与新发CKD的限制性立方样条分析

注:图A为糖化血红蛋白与新发CKD之间的限制性立方样条曲线;图B为多基因风险评分与新发CKD之间的限制性立方样条曲线;HR用红色实线表示;95%CI用灰色虚线表示;参考线为绿色虚线。

, figureFileSmall=0z6hDcSGfqAagY19z+/pRg==, figureFileBig=E5qeCC+F83mdCg9O30/6KA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241023940324283304, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023931637879297, language=EN, label=Figure 3, caption=Stratified and joint analysis of genetic risk, glycemic status and the risk of new-onset CKD, figureFileSmall=VxjawU9VA8T3hHGZLEeOkg==, figureFileBig=fKhg6O8mRRnlLQAfWdTj1g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241023940424946612, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023931637879297, language=CN, label=图3, caption=遗传风险、血糖状态与新发CKD风险的分层分析及联合分析, figureFileSmall=VxjawU9VA8T3hHGZLEeOkg==, figureFileBig=fKhg6O8mRRnlLQAfWdTj1g==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241023940538192837, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023931637879297, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Baseline characteristics of study participants[ (),n(%)]

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
基线特征全人群
(n=81 059)
血糖正常
(n=63 141)
糖尿病前期
(n=12 285)
T2D
(n=5 633)
χ2P
年龄(岁)55.39±8.2854.62±8.2857.98±7.6658.28±7.672 428.700<0.001
种族3 733.600<0.001
白人66 710(82.30)54 656(86.56)8 573(69.78)3 481(61.80)
非白人14 349(17.70)8 485(13.44)3 712(30.22)2 152(38.20)
性别605.260<0.001
女性45 012(55.53)35 954(56.94)6 808(55.42)2 250(39.94)
男性36 047(44.47)27 187(43.06)5 477(44.58)3 383(60.06)
剥夺指数-0.69±3.33-0.86±3.26-0.27±3.460.27±3.52753.410<0.001
受教育程度449.620<0.001
大学及以上31 115(38.39)25 447(40.30)3 961(32.24)1 707(30.30)
其他49 944(61.61)37 694(59.70)8 324(67.76)3 926(69.70)
吸烟状况254.930<0.001
从不吸烟44 235(54.57)34 859(55.21)6 451(52.51)2 925(51.93)
曾经吸烟27 599(34.05)21 582(34.18)3 943(32.10)2 074(36.82)
当前吸烟9 225(11.38)6 700(10.61)1 891(15.39)6 34(11.26)
体力活动239.430<0.001
定期体力活动51 727(63.81)40 890(64.76)7 616(61.99)3 221(57.18)
中等体力活动19 226(23.72)14 852(23.52)2 970(24.18)1 404(24.92)
较差体力活动10 106(12.47)7 399(11.72)1 699(13.83)1 008(17.89)
饮酒频率1636.700<0.001
很少或从不饮酒19 864(24.51)13 348(21.14)4 118(33.52)2 398(42.57)
每周≤2次饮酒29 175(35.99)23 009(36.44)4 361(35.50)1 805(32.04)
每周≥3次饮酒32 020(39.50)26 784(42.42)3 806(30.98)1 430(25.39)
BMI(kg/m227.36±4.7826.74±4.3928.94±5.1930.77±5.744 588.000<0.001
总胆固醇(mmol/L)5.65±1.145.72±1.085.73±1.214.71±1.173 906.800<0.001
收缩压(mmHg)136.39±18.59135.31±18.50139.96±18.58140.75±17.911 081.700<0.001
肾小球滤过率[ml/(min·1.73m2)]92.88±13.9393.19±13.4990.99±14.6493.56±16.65303.620<0.001
是否使用抗高血压药6 342.800<0.001
64 859(80.01)53 673(85.00)8 751(71.23)2 435(43.23)
16 200(19.99)9 468(15.00)3 534(28.77)3 198(56.77)
是否使用降血脂药11335.000<0.001
67 573(83.36)56 312(89.18)9 248(75.28)2 013(35.74)
13 486(16.64)6 829(10.82)3 037(24.72)3 620(64.26)
是否使用胰岛素12 830.000<0.001
80 112(98.83)63 141(100.00)12 285(100.00)4 686(83.19)
947(1.17)0(0.00)0(0.00)947(16.81)
遗传风险11.6810.020
低遗传风险27 020(33.33)21 080(33.39)3 986(32.45)1 954(34.69)
中遗传风险27 019(33.33)21 028(33.30)4 110(33.46)1 881(33.39)
高遗传风险27 020(33.33)21 033(33.31)4 189(34.10)1 798(31.92)
), ArticleFig(id=1241023940651439058, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023931637879297, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

研究者的基线特征[(),n(%)]

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
基线特征全人群
(n=81 059)
血糖正常
(n=63 141)
糖尿病前期
(n=12 285)
T2D
(n=5 633)
χ2P
年龄(岁)55.39±8.2854.62±8.2857.98±7.6658.28±7.672 428.700<0.001
种族3 733.600<0.001
白人66 710(82.30)54 656(86.56)8 573(69.78)3 481(61.80)
非白人14 349(17.70)8 485(13.44)3 712(30.22)2 152(38.20)
性别605.260<0.001
女性45 012(55.53)35 954(56.94)6 808(55.42)2 250(39.94)
男性36 047(44.47)27 187(43.06)5 477(44.58)3 383(60.06)
剥夺指数-0.69±3.33-0.86±3.26-0.27±3.460.27±3.52753.410<0.001
受教育程度449.620<0.001
大学及以上31 115(38.39)25 447(40.30)3 961(32.24)1 707(30.30)
其他49 944(61.61)37 694(59.70)8 324(67.76)3 926(69.70)
吸烟状况254.930<0.001
从不吸烟44 235(54.57)34 859(55.21)6 451(52.51)2 925(51.93)
曾经吸烟27 599(34.05)21 582(34.18)3 943(32.10)2 074(36.82)
当前吸烟9 225(11.38)6 700(10.61)1 891(15.39)6 34(11.26)
体力活动239.430<0.001
定期体力活动51 727(63.81)40 890(64.76)7 616(61.99)3 221(57.18)
中等体力活动19 226(23.72)14 852(23.52)2 970(24.18)1 404(24.92)
较差体力活动10 106(12.47)7 399(11.72)1 699(13.83)1 008(17.89)
饮酒频率1636.700<0.001
很少或从不饮酒19 864(24.51)13 348(21.14)4 118(33.52)2 398(42.57)
每周≤2次饮酒29 175(35.99)23 009(36.44)4 361(35.50)1 805(32.04)
每周≥3次饮酒32 020(39.50)26 784(42.42)3 806(30.98)1 430(25.39)
BMI(kg/m227.36±4.7826.74±4.3928.94±5.1930.77±5.744 588.000<0.001
总胆固醇(mmol/L)5.65±1.145.72±1.085.73±1.214.71±1.173 906.800<0.001
收缩压(mmHg)136.39±18.59135.31±18.50139.96±18.58140.75±17.911 081.700<0.001
肾小球滤过率[ml/(min·1.73m2)]92.88±13.9393.19±13.4990.99±14.6493.56±16.65303.620<0.001
是否使用抗高血压药6 342.800<0.001
64 859(80.01)53 673(85.00)8 751(71.23)2 435(43.23)
16 200(19.99)9 468(15.00)3 534(28.77)3 198(56.77)
是否使用降血脂药11335.000<0.001
67 573(83.36)56 312(89.18)9 248(75.28)2 013(35.74)
13 486(16.64)6 829(10.82)3 037(24.72)3 620(64.26)
是否使用胰岛素12 830.000<0.001
80 112(98.83)63 141(100.00)12 285(100.00)4 686(83.19)
947(1.17)0(0.00)0(0.00)947(16.81)
遗传风险11.6810.020
低遗传风险27 020(33.33)21 080(33.39)3 986(32.45)1 954(34.69)
中遗传风险27 019(33.33)21 028(33.30)4 110(33.46)1 881(33.39)
高遗传风险27 020(33.33)21 033(33.31)4 189(34.10)1 798(31.92)
), ArticleFig(id=1241023940768879582, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023931637879297, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Cox proportional hazards regression analysis of glycemic exposures, polygenic genetic risk and the risk of new-onset CKD

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
血糖特征发病人数/参与者每1 000人年发病率模型1HR(95%CI)模型2HR(95%CI)
基线血糖状态
正常血糖2 058/61 0832.461.00(参照类)1.00(参照类)
糖尿病前期770/12 2854.881.42(1.30~1.54)1.09(1.00~1.18)
T2D809/5 63311.823.19(2.93~3.48)2.04(1.85~2.25)
HbA1c每增加一个%单位
所有对象3 637/81 0593.431.38(1.34~1.42)1.33(1.28~1.38)
无T2D的对象3 074/77 3433.021.75(1.59~1.94)1.18(1.07~1.31)
HbA1c分组(%)
<5.0255/10 7791.771.00(参照类)1.00(参照类)
5.0~5.4899/31 3452.160.93(0.81~1.07)0.93(0.81~1.08)
5.4~5.81189/25 9463.501.17(1.02~1.35)1.00(0.87~1.15)
5.8~6.2546/7 6105.631.61(1.38~1.87)1.12(0.96~1.30)
6.2~6.6227/2 0289.022.31(1.92~2.77)1.32(1.09~1.59)
≥6.6521/3 35112.913.66(3.14~4.28)1.98(1.67~2.34)
多基因遗传风险
低风险862/27 0202.421.00(参照类)1.00(参照类)
中风险1 125/27 0193.181.32(1.21~1.44)1.00(0.92~1.09)
高风险1 650/27 0204.691.99(1.83~2.16)1.12(1.03~1.22)
), ArticleFig(id=1241023940877931497, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023931637879297, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

血糖、多基因遗传风险与新发CKD的Cox比例风险回归分析

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
血糖特征发病人数/参与者每1 000人年发病率模型1HR(95%CI)模型2HR(95%CI)
基线血糖状态
正常血糖2 058/61 0832.461.00(参照类)1.00(参照类)
糖尿病前期770/12 2854.881.42(1.30~1.54)1.09(1.00~1.18)
T2D809/5 63311.823.19(2.93~3.48)2.04(1.85~2.25)
HbA1c每增加一个%单位
所有对象3 637/81 0593.431.38(1.34~1.42)1.33(1.28~1.38)
无T2D的对象3 074/77 3433.021.75(1.59~1.94)1.18(1.07~1.31)
HbA1c分组(%)
<5.0255/10 7791.771.00(参照类)1.00(参照类)
5.0~5.4899/31 3452.160.93(0.81~1.07)0.93(0.81~1.08)
5.4~5.81189/25 9463.501.17(1.02~1.35)1.00(0.87~1.15)
5.8~6.2546/7 6105.631.61(1.38~1.87)1.12(0.96~1.30)
6.2~6.6227/2 0289.022.31(1.92~2.77)1.32(1.09~1.59)
≥6.6521/3 35112.913.66(3.14~4.28)1.98(1.67~2.34)
多基因遗传风险
低风险862/27 0202.421.00(参照类)1.00(参照类)
中风险1 125/27 0193.181.32(1.21~1.44)1.00(0.92~1.09)
高风险1 650/27 0204.691.99(1.83~2.16)1.12(1.03~1.22)
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血糖谱、遗传易感性与慢性肾病风险的前瞻性队列研究
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张婷 , 陈红宇 , 程盼 , 赵星 , 郭冰 , 吴功华
现代预防医学 | 流行病与统计方法 2025,52(3): 385-391
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现代预防医学 | 流行病与统计方法 2025, 52(3): 385-391
血糖谱、遗传易感性与慢性肾病风险的前瞻性队列研究
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张婷, 陈红宇, 程盼, 赵星, 郭冰, 吴功华
作者信息
  • 四川大学华西公共卫生学院/华西第四医院流行病与卫生统计学系,四川 成都 610041
  • 张婷(1998—),女,硕士在读,研究方向:卫生统计方法与应用

通讯作者:

吴功华,E-mail:
Prospective cohort study on the glycemic profile, genetic susceptibility, and risk of chronic kidney disease
Ting ZHANG, Hong-yu CHEN, Pan CHENG, Xing ZHAO, Bing GUO, Gong-hua WU
Affiliations
  • Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health / West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China
出版时间: 2025-02-10 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202410147
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目的

探究血糖谱与新发慢性肾病(chronic kidney disease,CKD)的纵向关联,以及遗传易感性对这种关联的影响。

方法

基于英国生物银行(UK Biobank)的基线调查及基因检测数据,使用Cox比例风险模型评估基线糖化血红蛋白(hemoglobin A1c,HbA1c)和血糖状态与新发CKD的相关性,以及遗传易感性在这种关联中的作用。

结果

本研究共纳入81 059名研究对象,其中糖尿病前期和糖尿病患者各占15.2%和6.9%。中位随访时间13.5年期间,共观察到3 637例新发CKD。多变量调整模型显示,与血糖正常的参与者相比,2型糖尿病(T2D)和糖尿病前期均增加CKD的发病风险,风险比(hazard ratios,HR)及95%CI分别为2.04(95%CI:1.85~2.25)和1.09(95%CI:1.00~1.18)。在HbA1c低于糖尿病阈值时,可观察到明显的风险梯度;与HbA1c<5.0%相比,HbA1c ≥6.6%的参与者CKD风险增大约2倍。血糖状态与遗传风险之间存在显著的乘法交互作用(P interaction<0.001)。在不同遗传风险组中,高血糖均显著增加CKD风险。与低遗传风险且血糖正常的参与者相比,同时患有T2D和高遗传风险参与者的CKD风险最高(HR=6.67, 95%CI:5.75~7.74)。

结论

在所有遗传风险组的人群中,血糖状态均与CKD风险相关。

血糖  /  糖尿病前期  /  遗传易感性  /  慢性肾脏疾病
Objective

To investigate the longitudinal association between glycemic profile and the incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD), as well as the impact of genetic susceptibility on this association.

Methods

Utilizing baseline survey and genetic data from the UK Biobank, Cox proportional hazards models were employed to assess the correlation between baseline hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels and glycemic status with the onset of CKD, along with the role of genetic susceptibility in this relationship.

Results

A total of 81 059 participants were included in this study, with 15.2% classified as prediabetic and 6.9%as diabetic. During a median follow-up period of 13.5 years, 3 637 new cases of CKD were observed. Multivariable-adjusted models indicated that both type 2 diabetes (T2D) and prediabetes significantly increased the risk of developing CKD compared to participants with normal blood glucose levels, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of 2.04 (95%CI:1.85-2.25) and 1.09 (95%CI: 1.00-1.18), respectively. A clear risk gradient was observed when HbA1c was below the diabetes threshold; participants with HbA1c ≥6.6% had approximately double the risk of CKD compared to those with HbA1c <5.0%. A significant multiplicative interaction between glycemic status and genetic risk was found (P interaction <0.001). In all genetic risk groups, hyperglycemia significantly increased the risk of CKD. Among participants with high genetic risk, those with both T2D and high genetic risk exhibited the highest CKD risk (HR=6.67, 95%CI: 5.75-7.74) compared to those with low genetic risk and normal blood glucose.

Conclusion

Glycemic status is associated with the risk of CKD across all genetic risk groups.

Glycemia  /  Prediabetes  /  Genetic susceptibility  /  Chronic kidney disease
张婷, 陈红宇, 程盼, 赵星, 郭冰, 吴功华. 血糖谱、遗传易感性与慢性肾病风险的前瞻性队列研究. 现代预防医学, 2025 , 52 (3) : 385 -391 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202410147
Ting ZHANG, Hong-yu CHEN, Pan CHENG, Xing ZHAO, Bing GUO, Gong-hua WU. Prospective cohort study on the glycemic profile, genetic susceptibility, and risk of chronic kidney disease[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2025 , 52 (3) : 385 -391 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202410147
慢性肾脏病(chronic kidney disease,CKD)以肾实质持续受损为主要特点,呈现肾功能逐渐下降,发展为终末期肾病,并且与心血管疾病存在密切联系[1-2]。全球疾病负担研究显示,CKD影响全球15%~20%成年人[3],已经成为世界范围内重大的公共卫生问题,给家庭和医疗系统带来了巨大负担[4-6]
2型糖尿病(type 2 diabetes, T2D)与CKD的风险密切相关[7-8],即便未发展为T2D,糖尿病前期患者也可能罹患CKD[9]。鉴于这一紧密联系,医学界对于如何有效管理T2D以预防或减少CKD的发生给予高度关注。除了血糖因素外,遗传易感性在CKD的发生中也起着重要作用[10-12]。全基因组关联研究发现了众多与CKD紧密相关的遗传位点[13-14],为评估个体罹患CKD的风险提供了有效信息。然而,当前研究对于整个血糖谱,尤其是糖化血红蛋白(hemoglobin A1c, HbA1c)浓度低于T2D诊断阈值范围内的人群,其血糖状态对CKD风险的影响,尚缺乏充分的探讨。同时,遗传易感性与血糖状态在CKD发病中的交互作用机制仍不清楚。因此,本研究基于英国生物样本库(UK Biobank),探讨基线HbA1c、糖尿病前期状态以及T2D与新发CKD之间的相关性,进一步评估CKD相关遗传易感性是否会改变血糖状态与CKD风险之间的关联,以期为制定更加精准、个性化的预防和治疗策略提供科学依据。
UK Biobank是一个前瞻性、观察性的自然人群队列,于2006—2010年招募了50多万名40~69岁参与者[15]。该队列收集了参与者丰富的表型和健康相关信息,包括人口统计学特征、生活行为方式、身体测量数据、血液和尿液中的生物标志物,以及全基因组数据。这为深入研究复杂性状的环境~基因交互提供了机会。UK Biobank获得了由西北多中心研究伦理委员会(MREC)的正式批准,所有参与者均签署了知情同意书。本研究基于UK Biobank数据资源开展(申请号为117185),选取了具有CKD相关多基因遗传评分数据的104 594名参与者作为初始研究群体。为了确保研究的准确性和可靠性,我们严格排除了基线调查时已被诊断为CKD的参与者(443人),以及缺失HbA1c测量值或相关协变量数据的参与者(23 092人),最终纳入81 059名研究对象。
根据美国糖尿病协会[16]及相关文献[17]推荐,本研究将研究对象的血糖状分类为:T2D(定义为自我报告的糖尿病、HbA1c≥6.5%或正在使用胰岛素治疗)、糖尿病前期(定义为没有自我报告糖尿病,但5.7%≤HbA1c<6.5%)和血糖正常状态(定义为既没有自我报告糖尿病,又符合HbA1c<5.7%)。
多基因风险评分是量化个体遗传风险的有效工具,综合考虑了与特定疾病(如CKD)相关的多个等位基因的效应,已被成功应用于评估个体罹患某些疾病的风险[18]。本研究所采用的肾小球滤过率(基于肌酐计算)相关的多基因风险评分是从UK Biobank数据库的“Enhances PRS(category 302)”资源中提取的。该评分基于253个与肾小球滤过率相关的单核苷酸多态性计算得到。由于肾小球滤过率与CKD风险成反比,因此将计算出的多基因风险分数乘以-1,以使其能够直接反映CKD的遗传易感性,即分数越高表示个体罹患CKD的遗传风险越高。本研究将参与者的CKD遗传风险按照三分位数进行分类:低、中、高三个遗传风险组。这样分类有助于更清晰地观察不同遗传风险水平下,血糖状态与CKD风险之间的关联差异。
基于UKB数据库相关联的入院诊断数据和死亡登记,根据《国际疾病分类第十次修订版》(ICD-10)和英国人口普查和调查办公室《外科手术和程序分类第四版》(OPCS~4)代码以及英国生物库算法定义的接受肾脏替代治疗来识别新发CKD。本研究的观察终点定义为研究对象首次出现CKD的日期、死亡日期、失访日期或有可用健康数据的最后日期,先到者为准。
参考既往文献[8,17,19],本研究将年龄、性别、种族、汤森剥夺指数(Townsend deprivation index,TDI)、受教育程度、吸烟状况、体力活动、饮酒频率、体质指数(body mass index,BMI)、总胆固醇、收缩压、肾小球滤过率和使用抗高血压药、降血脂药、胰岛素的情况作为协变量。TDI是基于失业、无车、无房和家庭拥挤程度计算得出,用于反映个体的社会经济地位。饮酒频率被分为三分类:很少或从不饮酒、每周≤2次饮酒、每周≥3次饮酒。体力活动水平则是根据国际体力活动问卷评估,并参照以世界卫生组织指南进行划分:理想的体力活动水平定义为每周150 min的中等强度活动,或每周至少进行75 min的剧烈活动,或两者同等组合[20]。肾小球滤过率则是通过慢性肾脏病流行病学协作方程(CKD-EPI)进行计算[21],该方程能够精确反映肾脏的滤过功能。
采用()描述连续型变量,采用频数和百分比描述分类变量。组间差异比较分析中,对连续性变量采用方差分析或Kruskal-Wallis检验,对分类变量采用χ2检验。采用每1 000人年的事件数来描述CKD的发生率。
采用Kaplan-Meier曲线评估不同分组下研究对象CKD的累积发病率,并通过Log-rank对数秩检验比较不同组的累积发病率是否存在差别。采用Cox比例风险模型探讨血糖状态、HbA1c水平以及多基因风险评分与CKD风险之间的关联,并报告风险比(hazard ratio,HR)和95%CI。构建模型时,充分考虑可能的混杂因素。对于血糖状态与CKD风险的分析,模型1调整了年龄、性别、种族、TDI、受教育程度;模型2进一步调整了吸烟状况、体力活动、饮酒频率、BMI、总胆固醇、收缩压、肾小球滤过率和使用抗高血压药、降血脂药情况。对于HbA1c与CKD风险的关联,采用相同的分析策略,但额外调整了胰岛素使用情况。对于多基因风险评分与CKD风险之间的关联,同样遵循上述模型策略,并在模型2中额外调整了族群结构的前十个主成分,以消除族群差异对结果的可能影响。为了确保Cox模型的适用性,使用Schoenfeld残差图对比例风险假设进行检查,结果显示未发现违反该假设的情况。
为了探讨HbA1c、多基因风险评分与CKD风险的非线性关系,将HbA1c和多基因风险评分分别作为连续性变量,采用限制性立方样条的Cox比例风险回归模型。在变量的第5、50和95百分位数处设置3个节点,以中位数作为参考值,分别分析HbA1c和多基因风险水平与CKD的非线性剂量-反应关系。采用似然比检验比较线性模型与非线性模型,以探查HbA1c和多基因风险水平与CKD风险之间是否存在显著的非线性关系。
为了探究CKD相关的遗传易感性是否对血糖状态与CKD风险的关联产生影响,本研究将血糖正常且低遗传风险的参与者设置为参考组,以此为基础来比较其他组合的风险情况。采用似然比检验血糖状态(血糖正常、糖尿病前期、T2D)与遗传易感性(高、中、低遗传风险)之间是否存在显著的相乘交互项作用。
所有统计分析均使用R软件进行,检验水准α=0.05。
在81 059名未患CKD的基线研究对象中,全体研究对象的年龄为(55.39±8.28)岁,女性占55.53%,HbA1c中位数为5.39%(四分位距:5.15%~5.65%)。其中,63 141名(77.9%)血糖水平正常,12 285名(15.2%)处于糖尿病前期,5 633名(6.9%)患有T2D。与血糖正常者相比,患有T2D和处于糖尿病前期的人群年龄偏大,非白人种族的比例更高,社会经济地位相对较低;此外,这两组人群中吸烟史的比例较高,体力活动水平则相对较差,见表1。在生理指标方面,T2D和糖尿病前期患者的BMI、胆固醇水平以及收缩压显著高于血糖正常者,且使用抗高血压药物和降血脂药的比例也相对较高。
血糖状态或遗传风险分组的CKD累积发病率见图1,各组存在显著差异(Log-rank对数秩检验,P<0.001)。T2D组的CKD累积发病率显著高于糖尿病前期和正常血糖组。随着时间推移,三组之间的累积发病率差异逐渐增大,T2D组的CKD累积发病率约为糖尿病前期组的2倍,见图1A。在不同遗传风险组中,也观察到类似趋势,见图1B
在1 061 522人年的随访期内,共有3 637例新发CKD。在13.5年的中位随访期内,2 058例(2.46/1 000人年)血糖正常个体,770例(4.88/1 000人年)糖尿病前期个体和809例(11.82/1 000人年)T2D患者发生CKD,见表2
按照基线血糖状态分组时,与正常血糖的参与者相比,校正年龄、性别、种族、汤森剥夺指数、受教育程度后,糖尿病前期增加CKD的风险(HR=1.42,95%CI:1.30~1.54)。在完全协变量调整后,糖尿病前期仍与CKD独立相关(HR=1.09,95%CI:1.00~1.18)。将HbA1c作为连续性变量时,在全人群和无T2D的人群中HbA1c每增加一个单位CKD发病风险分别增加33%和18%(HR=1.33,95%CI:1.28~1.38;HR= 1.18,95%CI:1.07~1.31,模型2)。将HbA1c作为分类变量时,与HbA1c<5.0%相比,HbA1c ≥6.6%的参与者CKD风险增大约2倍。见表2
与低遗传风险组相比,校正年龄、性别、种族、TDI、受教育程度后,中遗传风险组和高遗传风险组发生CKD的HR(95%CI)分别为1.32(1.21,1.44)和1.99(1.83,2.16)。在完全协变量调整后,高遗传风险仍与CKD独立相关。见表2
多变量调整的限制性立方样条分析表明,HbA1c与CKD发病风险间存在着显著的非线性剂量反应关系(P nonlinear=0.002),且当HbA1c水平达到5.5%时,CKD的发病风险随着HbA1c水平增加而迅速增加;暂未发现多基因风险评分CKD之间存在显著的非线性关系(P nonlinear=0.072)。见图2
多基因风险评分与血糖状态之间存在显著的相乘交互作用(P interaction<0.001)。与正常血糖相比,T2D在低、中、高遗传风险组的CKD风险分别增加4.15(95%CI:3.51~4.91)、2.95(95%CI:2.52~3.46)和2.98倍(95%CI:2.61~3.42)。与低遗传风险和血糖正常的参与者相比,那些患有T2D的高遗传风险参与者的CKD风险最高(HR=6.67,95%CI:5.75~7.74)。见图3
本研究发现高血糖状态和遗传易感性均与CKD发病风险增加有关。具体而言,HbA1c及多基因遗传评分均与CKD风险存在显著的剂量-反应关系;当HbA1c≥5.5%时,CKD发病风险随之增加;研究还发现了遗传风险与血糖状态之间存在显著的乘法交互作用。区别于既往研究,本研究将HbA1c视为一个连续指标,深入探讨整个血糖谱与CKD发病风险的关联,旨在为提前CKD防控关口提供科学依据。
本研究主要揭示,T2D是慢性肾脏病的一个重要危险因素,甚至在个体进展为T2D之前,糖尿病前期状态就已与CKD风险升高紧密相关。这一发现与之前的多项研究结果一致[8,17,22-23]。本研究更进一步地,将HbA1c视为一个连续指标,并发现即便在HbA1c处于正常值至糖尿病前期的范围内,CKD的风险也呈现出显著的梯度变化。尤为值得注意的是,当HbA1c水平超过5.5%后,CKD风险值迅速增加。潜在的机制可能是,高血糖状态增强氧化应激反应,进而触发肾纤维化进程、引发炎症反应,同时影响内皮细胞与足细胞的代谢状态及肾血流动力学平衡。这些变化增加了肾脏细胞对能量和氧气的需求,加速了脂质过氧化,导致DNA损伤、蛋白质结构修饰以及线粒体功能受损,最终损害了肾脏的结构与功能完整性[24-26]。上述结果提供了在糖尿病前期人群中监测肾小球滤过率的科学依据[27]
多基因遗传风险评分作为一种评估个体患病遗传风险的有效工具,已广泛应用于衡量特定疾病的遗传易感性,并已验证是疾病预测的良好指标[28-29]。本研究将多基因风险评分纳入分析后,得到了与既往研究[10-11]一致的结果,即遗传易感性与CKD风险存在关联,且发现遗传风险与血糖水平对CKD风险的影响存在乘法交互效应。相比于血糖正常及低遗传风险者,同时存在T2D和高遗传风险的个体,其CKD风险增加了约6.67倍,这提示在高风险个体中控制血糖显得尤为紧迫和重要。值得注意的是,低遗传风险的个体更易受血糖影响,其CKD风险敏感性更高。这强调了即使在遗传风险较低的人群中,控制血糖对于预防CKD也至关重要。此外,本研究还发现,血糖因素可能与遗传易感性对CKD风险产生联合效应,这一发现提示,无论个体的遗传风险如何,都有必要在早期阶段就采取严格的血糖管理措施,培养良好的血糖监测习惯,并制定个性化的预防策略,以降低CKD的疾病负担。
本研究存在一定局限性。首先,本研究是一项观察性研究,尽管已控制了广泛的混杂因素,但不能排除其他未测量或未知因素的残留混杂。其次,由于缺乏血糖状态随时间变化的数据,我们无法探讨血糖动态变化对CKD发病之间的关联。最后,UK Biobank是一个相对健康的人群,其中大部分是高加索人群,因此本研究发现推广到其他更广泛的人群应该谨慎。未来需要在中国人群中开展更大规模研究,以识别CKD风险增加的血糖阈值。
综上所述,较高的血糖水平(特别是HbA1c≥5.5%)可能增加CKD发病风险,凸显了长期监测血糖状况和肾脏功能对CKD早期预防的重要性。本研究还发现低遗传风险个体对血糖变化更为敏感,为精准化防控提供了科学依据。本研究结果有望为减轻CKD的临床和经济负担提供依据。
  • 国家自然科学基金(82273740)
  • 国家自然科学基金(82073667)
  • 2022年引导专项四川省配套-主动健康精准预防医学
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202410147
  • 接收时间:2024-10-10
  • 首发时间:2026-03-18
  • 出版时间:2025-02-10
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  • 收稿日期:2024-10-10
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国家自然科学基金(82273740)
国家自然科学基金(82073667)
2022年引导专项四川省配套-主动健康精准预防医学
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    四川大学华西公共卫生学院/华西第四医院流行病与卫生统计学系,四川 成都 610041

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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
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栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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