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Article(id=1241023856585011657, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241023847537897695, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202405164, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1715356800000, receivedDateStr=2024-05-11, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773812744518, onlineDateStr=2026-03-18, pubDate=1737734400000, pubDateStr=2025-01-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773812744518, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-18, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773812744518, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773812744518, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1241023847537897695, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2025', volume='52', issue='2', pageStart='193', pageEnd='384', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773812742361, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773812823817, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1241024189247845056, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241023847537897695, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1241024189247845057, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1241023847537897695, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=369, endPage=375, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1241023857084133869, articleId=1241023856585011657, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Analysis of influencing factors for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Yunnan Province: A retrospective cohort study, columnId=1228016569138213037, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Clinical Medicine and Prevention, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To explore the incidence, time of occurrence and influencing factors of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) in stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients within one year.

Methods

Retrospectively collected information on COPD case home page visits in Yunnan Province from 2016 to 2022, establishing a longitudinal observation cohort based on patients’ names and ID numbers. The incidence rate, time of occurrence and average number of AECOPD within one year of COPD were calculated, and the relationship between patients’ exposure factors and the number of AECOPD within one year was analyzed by using multivariate linear regression, and the exposure factors affecting AECOPD within one year of COPD patients were analyzed by using Cox regression.

Results

The mean age of 405 428 COPD patients was（70.75±10.95）years, the mean number of comorbidities was 1.14±1.15, the incidence of AECOPD within one year was 17.55%, the mean duration of occurrence was（4.58±3.64）months, and the mean number of AECOPD per patient was 0.27. The regression results showed that gender (HR=1.473, 95%CI: 1.446-1.500), age (HR=1.011, 95%CI: 1.010-1.012), number of comorbidities (HR=1.083, 95%CI: 1.076-1.090), medical insurance type (HR=1.481, 95%CI: 1.394-1.574), and admission season (HR=1.115, 95%CI: 1.090-1.140) were the influencing factors for acute exacerbation in patients with COPD within one year.

Conclusion

The incidence of AECOPD in COPD patients in Yunnan Province within one year is 17.55%. We should start from various risk factors and focus on male, elderly, patients with multiple comorbidities, those admitted in spring and winter seasons, and non-resident medical insurance patients. Take corresponding preventive measures and strengthen the management of AECOPD.

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目的

探究稳定期慢性阻塞性肺疾病（Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease，COPD）患者一年内慢性阻塞性肺疾病急性加重（Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease，AECOPD）的发生率、发生时间和影响因素。

方法

回顾性收集2016年—2022年云南省COPD病案首页人次信息，根据患者姓名和身份证号码建立时间纵向观察队列。计算COPD患者一年内AECOPD发生率、发生时间和平均加重次数，运用多元线性回归分析患者住院特征与一年内AECOPD次数的关系，运用Cox回归分析影响COPD患者一年内发生AECOPD的影响因素。

结果

405 428例COPD患者的平均年龄为（70.75±10.95）岁，平均合并（1.14±1.15）个合并症，一年内AECOPD发生率为17.55%，平均发生时间为（4.58±3.64）月，每位患者平均发生0.27次AECOPD。回归结果表明，性别（HR=1.473，95%CI：1.446~1.500）、年龄（HR=1.011，95%CI：1.010~1.012）、合并症个数（HR=1.083，95%CI：1.076~1.090）、医保类型（HR=1.481，95%CI：1.394~1.574）、入院季节（HR=1.115，95%CI：1.090~1.140）为COPD患者一年内发生急性加重的危险因素。

结论

云南省COPD患者一年内AECOPD发生率为17.55%，应从各项危险因素入手，重点关注为男性、高龄、合并症数量多、春冬季节入院和非居民医保的患者，采取相应的预防措施，加强COPD急性加重的管理。

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张云辉与唐松源为共同通信作者；张云辉，E-mail：；
唐松源，E-mail：
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孟金良与罗国红为共同第一作者；

孟金良（1995—），男，硕士，初级统计师，研究方向：流行病与卫生统计学；

罗国红（1998—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：流行病与卫生统计学

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孟金良（1995—），男，硕士，初级统计师，研究方向：流行病与卫生统计学；

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孟金良（1995—），男，硕士，初级统计师，研究方向：流行病与卫生统计学；

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(In Chinese), articleTitle=Association study of polymorphisms in telomere length and related genes and susceptibility to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Li nationality inHainan, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241023872867299625, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023856585011657, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2018, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[23], rfOrder=28, authorNames=张娅, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=张娅．新疆某二甲医院COPD患者住院费用影响因素研究[D]．乌鲁木齐：新疆医科大学，2018., articleTitle=新疆某二甲医院COPD患者住院费用影响因素研究, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241023872972157230, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023856585011657, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2018, volume=null, issue=null, pageStart=null, pageEnd=null, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[23], rfOrder=29, authorNames=Zhang Y, journalName=null, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Zhang Y. Study on the influencing factors of COPD patients in a hospital in Xinjiang[D]. Urumqi: Xinjiang Medical University, 2018. (In Chinese), articleTitle=Study on the influencing factors of COPD patients in a hospital in Xinjiang, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1241023868522000516, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023856585011657, awardId=2022-DFZD-30, language=CN, fundingSource=云南省慢阻肺群医学模式综合防控战略咨询研究项目(2022-DFZD-30), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1241023861131637480, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023856585011657, xref=1．, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241023861152609003, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023856585011657, companyId=1241023861131637480, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=The First People’s Hospital of Yunnan Province, Kunming, Yunnan 650032, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241023861173580527, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023856585011657, companyId=1241023861131637480, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=1．云南省第一人民医院，云南　昆明　650032)]), AuthorCompany(id=1241023861261660923, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023856585011657, xref=2．, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241023861278438142, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023856585011657, companyId=1241023861261660923, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=2．昆明医科大学公共卫生学院健康研究所)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1241023865598570530, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023856585011657, language=EN, label=Fig.1, caption=Flowchart of queue establishment, figureFileSmall=VBbjkZQMii7mc1GwCcedVw==, figureFileBig=SDIiED04fN2zYKCbS4NiOQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241023865682456618, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023856585011657, language=CN, label=图1, caption=队列建立流程图, figureFileSmall=VBbjkZQMii7mc1GwCcedVw==, figureFileBig=SDIiED04fN2zYKCbS4NiOQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241023865917337662, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023856585011657, language=EN, label=Fig.2, caption=Kaplan-Meier cumulative incidence curve for AECOPD not occurring within 12 months, figureFileSmall=RqPAX1MHUiWGZRXMYTX9Hg==, figureFileBig=oTuTPJcGUVfut3u00vSBcg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241023866068332614, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023856585011657, language=CN, label=图2, caption=12月内未发生AECOPD的Kaplan-Meier累积发生率曲线, figureFileSmall=RqPAX1MHUiWGZRXMYTX9Hg==, figureFileBig=oTuTPJcGUVfut3u00vSBcg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241023867603447885, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023856585011657, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Comparative analysis of different subgroups of the number of AECOPD within one year

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
未发生AECOPD组(n=334 260)发生1次AECOPD组(n=50 986)发生≥2次AECOPD组(n=20 182)总计(n=405 428)χ2/FP
性别
男221 592(80.48)37 750(13.71)15 986(5.81)275 328(67.91)2 462.438<0.001
女112 668(86.60)13 236(10.17)4 196(3.23)130 100(32.09)
年龄（岁）（)70.45±11.0171.88±10.4472.89±10.8570.75±10.95785.676<0.001
<40岁2 169(91.79)131(5.54)63(2.67)2 363(0.58)1 381.335<0.001
40~59岁52 310(85.92)6 293(10.34)2 278(3.74)60 881(15.02)
60~69岁90 945(83.34)13 251(12.14)4 934(4.52)109 130(26.92)
70~79岁115 411(81.91)18 513(13.14)6 975(4.95)140 899(34.75)
≥80岁73 425(79.67)12 798(13.89)5 932(6.44)92 155(22.73)
医保类型
职工医保69 737(77.93)13 626(15.23)6 117(6.84)89 480(22.11)2 311.667<0.001
居民医保218 338(84.26)30 291(11.69)10 485(4.05)259 114(64.02)
贫困救助4 132(78.27)779(14.76)368(6.97)5 279(1.30)
其他41 452(81.51)6 214(12.22)3 187(6.27)50 853(12.57)
民族
汉族273 634(81.94)42 870(12.84)17 447(5.22)333 951(83.54)378.983<0.001
少数民族55 860(84.88)7 437(11.30)2 512(3.82)65 809(16.46)
婚姻
在婚293 792(82.45)45 017(12.63)17 513(4.92)356 322(88.36)33.462<0.001
非在婚38 605(82.23)5 761(12.27)2 584(5.50)46 950(11.64)
入院途径
急诊51 487（82.30）7 862（12.57）3 213（5.13）62 562（15.73）57.471<0.001
门诊246 663（82.51）37 546（12.56）14 747（4.93）298 956（75.19）
其他医疗机构转入29 224（80.96）4 884（13.53）1 990（5.51）36 098（9.08）
医院级别
三级医院94 178(81.48)14 790(12.80)6 613(5.72)115 581(31.33)255.536<0.001
二级医院208 243(82.98)31 303(12.48)11 398(4.54)250 944(68.03)
未评定等级医院1 907(81.05)320(13.60)126(5.35)2 353(0.64)
入院季节
春季81 980（81.60）13 117（13.06）5 368（5.34）100 465（24.78）178.731<0.001
夏季72 152（82.97）10 800（12.42）4 007（4.61）86 959（21.45）
秋季81 563（83.40）11 778（12.05）4 453（4.55）97 794（24.12）
冬季98 565（81.99）15 291（12.72）6 354（5.29）120 210（29.65）
合并症个数（)1.12±1.141.23±1.171.36±1.211.14±1.15607.515<0.001
0个合并症122 818（84.82）16 267（11.23）5 716（3.95）144 801（35.71）1 072.144<0.001
1~3个合并症198 867（81.30）32 443（13.26）13 317（5.44）244 627（60.34）
≥4个合并症12 575（78.59）2 276（14.23）1 149（7.18）16 000（3.95）
高血压
无258 879（82.95）38 327（12.28）14 874（4.77）312 080（76.98）258.009<0.001
有75 381（80.75）12 659（13.56）5 308（5.69）93 348（23.02）
动脉粥样硬化
无310 967（82.52）47 218（12.53）18 643（4.95）376 828（92.95）22.574<0.001
有23 293（81.44）3 768（13.18）1 539（5.38）28 600（7.05）
冠心病
无309 778（82.78）46 485（12.42）17 952（4.80）374 215（92.30）476.322<0.001
有24 482（78.44）4 501（14.42）2 230（7.14）31 213（7.70）
心力衰竭
无307 793（82.94）45 684（12.31）17 611（4.75）371 088（91.53）850.475<0.001
有26 467（77.07）5 302（15.44）2 571（7.49）34 340（8.47）
心房颤动
无325 782（82.57）49 378（12.51）19 408（4.92）394 568（97.32）173.658<0.001
有8 478（78.06）1 608（14.81）774（7.13）10 860（2.68）
支气管扩张
无320 949(82.53)48 679(12.52)19 276(4.95)388 904(95.92)42.594<0.001
有13 311(80.56)2 307(13.96)906(5.48)16 524(4.08)
支气管哮喘
无319 268(82.53)48 444(12.52)19 159(4.95)386 871(95.42)37.136<0.001
有14 992(80.79)2 542(13.70)1 023(5.51)18 557(4.58)
肺栓塞
无332 729(82.47)50 681(12.56)20 033(4.97)403 443(99.51)44.800<0.001
有1 531(77.13)305(15.36)149(7.51)1 985(0.49)
肺动脉高压
无306 064(82.90)45 360(12.29)17 773(4.81)369 197(91.06)602.089<0.001
有28 196(77.82)5 626(15.53)2 409(6.65)36 231(8.94)
肺间质纤维化
无329 957(82.48)50 224(12.55)19 875(4.97)400 056(98.67)20.776<0.001
有4 303(80.11)762(14.18)307(5.71)5 372(1.33)
高尿酸血症
无311 257（82.68）46 806（12.43）18 401（4.89）376 464（92.86）206.026<0.001
有23 003（79.42）4 180（14.43）1 781（6.15）28 964（7.14）
高脂血症
无309 091（82.18）47 899（12.73）19 148（5.09）376 138（92.78）283.519<0.001
有25 169（85.93）3 087（10.54）1 034（3.53）29 290（7.22）
骨质疏松
无328 643（82.53）50 015（12.56）19 547（4.91）398 205（98.22）238.775<0.001
有5 617（77.77）971（13.44）635（8.79）7 223（1.78）
抑郁
无333 720（82.46）50 887（12.57）20 113（4.97）404 720（99.83）36.785<0.001
有540（76.27）99（13.98）69（9.75）708（0.17）
脑梗死
无308 426（82.53）46 905（12.55）18 405（4.92）373 736（92.18）33.427<0.001
有25 834（81.51）4 081（12.88）1 777（5.61）31 692（7.82）
贫血
无321 456（82.39）49 181（12.61）19 505（5.00）390 142（96.23）20.404<0.001
有12 804（83.76）1 805（11.81）677（4.43）15 286（3.77）
), ArticleFig(id=1241023867725082708, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023856585011657, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

一年内不同AECOPD次数分组对比分析[N（%）]

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
未发生AECOPD组(n=334 260)发生1次AECOPD组(n=50 986)发生≥2次AECOPD组(n=20 182)总计(n=405 428)χ2/FP
性别
男221 592(80.48)37 750(13.71)15 986(5.81)275 328(67.91)2 462.438<0.001
女112 668(86.60)13 236(10.17)4 196(3.23)130 100(32.09)
年龄（岁）（)70.45±11.0171.88±10.4472.89±10.8570.75±10.95785.676<0.001
<40岁2 169(91.79)131(5.54)63(2.67)2 363(0.58)1 381.335<0.001
40~59岁52 310(85.92)6 293(10.34)2 278(3.74)60 881(15.02)
60~69岁90 945(83.34)13 251(12.14)4 934(4.52)109 130(26.92)
70~79岁115 411(81.91)18 513(13.14)6 975(4.95)140 899(34.75)
≥80岁73 425(79.67)12 798(13.89)5 932(6.44)92 155(22.73)
医保类型
职工医保69 737(77.93)13 626(15.23)6 117(6.84)89 480(22.11)2 311.667<0.001
居民医保218 338(84.26)30 291(11.69)10 485(4.05)259 114(64.02)
贫困救助4 132(78.27)779(14.76)368(6.97)5 279(1.30)
其他41 452(81.51)6 214(12.22)3 187(6.27)50 853(12.57)
民族
汉族273 634(81.94)42 870(12.84)17 447(5.22)333 951(83.54)378.983<0.001
少数民族55 860(84.88)7 437(11.30)2 512(3.82)65 809(16.46)
婚姻
在婚293 792(82.45)45 017(12.63)17 513(4.92)356 322(88.36)33.462<0.001
非在婚38 605(82.23)5 761(12.27)2 584(5.50)46 950(11.64)
入院途径
急诊51 487（82.30）7 862（12.57）3 213（5.13）62 562（15.73）57.471<0.001
门诊246 663（82.51）37 546（12.56）14 747（4.93）298 956（75.19）
其他医疗机构转入29 224（80.96）4 884（13.53）1 990（5.51）36 098（9.08）
医院级别
三级医院94 178(81.48)14 790(12.80)6 613(5.72)115 581(31.33)255.536<0.001
二级医院208 243(82.98)31 303(12.48)11 398(4.54)250 944(68.03)
未评定等级医院1 907(81.05)320(13.60)126(5.35)2 353(0.64)
入院季节
春季81 980（81.60）13 117（13.06）5 368（5.34）100 465（24.78）178.731<0.001
夏季72 152（82.97）10 800（12.42）4 007（4.61）86 959（21.45）
秋季81 563（83.40）11 778（12.05）4 453（4.55）97 794（24.12）
冬季98 565（81.99）15 291（12.72）6 354（5.29）120 210（29.65）
合并症个数（)1.12±1.141.23±1.171.36±1.211.14±1.15607.515<0.001
0个合并症122 818（84.82）16 267（11.23）5 716（3.95）144 801（35.71）1 072.144<0.001
1~3个合并症198 867（81.30）32 443（13.26）13 317（5.44）244 627（60.34）
≥4个合并症12 575（78.59）2 276（14.23）1 149（7.18）16 000（3.95）
高血压
无258 879（82.95）38 327（12.28）14 874（4.77）312 080（76.98）258.009<0.001
有75 381（80.75）12 659（13.56）5 308（5.69）93 348（23.02）
动脉粥样硬化
无310 967（82.52）47 218（12.53）18 643（4.95）376 828（92.95）22.574<0.001
有23 293（81.44）3 768（13.18）1 539（5.38）28 600（7.05）
冠心病
无309 778（82.78）46 485（12.42）17 952（4.80）374 215（92.30）476.322<0.001
有24 482（78.44）4 501（14.42）2 230（7.14）31 213（7.70）
心力衰竭
无307 793（82.94）45 684（12.31）17 611（4.75）371 088（91.53）850.475<0.001
有26 467（77.07）5 302（15.44）2 571（7.49）34 340（8.47）
心房颤动
无325 782（82.57）49 378（12.51）19 408（4.92）394 568（97.32）173.658<0.001
有8 478（78.06）1 608（14.81）774（7.13）10 860（2.68）
支气管扩张
无320 949(82.53)48 679(12.52)19 276(4.95)388 904(95.92)42.594<0.001
有13 311(80.56)2 307(13.96)906(5.48)16 524(4.08)
支气管哮喘
无319 268(82.53)48 444(12.52)19 159(4.95)386 871(95.42)37.136<0.001
有14 992(80.79)2 542(13.70)1 023(5.51)18 557(4.58)
肺栓塞
无332 729(82.47)50 681(12.56)20 033(4.97)403 443(99.51)44.800<0.001
有1 531(77.13)305(15.36)149(7.51)1 985(0.49)
肺动脉高压
无306 064(82.90)45 360(12.29)17 773(4.81)369 197(91.06)602.089<0.001
有28 196(77.82)5 626(15.53)2 409(6.65)36 231(8.94)
肺间质纤维化
无329 957(82.48)50 224(12.55)19 875(4.97)400 056(98.67)20.776<0.001
有4 303(80.11)762(14.18)307(5.71)5 372(1.33)
高尿酸血症
无311 257（82.68）46 806（12.43）18 401（4.89）376 464（92.86）206.026<0.001
有23 003（79.42）4 180（14.43）1 781（6.15）28 964（7.14）
高脂血症
无309 091（82.18）47 899（12.73）19 148（5.09）376 138（92.78）283.519<0.001
有25 169（85.93）3 087（10.54）1 034（3.53）29 290（7.22）
骨质疏松
无328 643（82.53）50 015（12.56）19 547（4.91）398 205（98.22）238.775<0.001
有5 617（77.77）971（13.44）635（8.79）7 223（1.78）
抑郁
无333 720（82.46）50 887（12.57）20 113（4.97）404 720（99.83）36.785<0.001
有540（76.27）99（13.98）69（9.75）708（0.17）
脑梗死
无308 426（82.53）46 905（12.55）18 405（4.92）373 736（92.18）33.427<0.001
有25 834（81.51）4 081（12.88）1 777（5.61）31 692（7.82）
贫血
无321 456（82.39）49 181（12.61）19 505（5.00）390 142（96.23）20.404<0.001
有12 804（83.76）1 805（11.81）677（4.43）15 286（3.77）
), ArticleFig(id=1241023867867689054, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023856585011657, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Cox regression risk analysis of acute exacerbations occurring within one year in patients with COPD

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
β值WaldHR值（95% CI）P值
年龄（岁）0.011812.3941.011（1.010~1.0102）<0.001
合并症个数0.080549.1851.083（1.076~1.090）<0.001
男（对照组：女）0.3871692.4881.473（1.446~1.500）<0.001
其他少数民族（对照组：汉族）-0.135139.4260.874（0.854~0.893）<0.001
医保类型（对照组：居民医保）
职工医保0.230542.3241.258（1.234~1.283）<0.001
贫困救助0.393160.6121.481（1.394~1.574）<0.001
其他0.133116.4171.143（1.115~1.171）<0.001
入院季节（对照组：秋季）
夏季0.0306.2251.030（1.006~1.055）0.013
春季0.10991.4111.115（1.090~1.140）<0.001
冬季0.08762.3191.091（1.068~1.115）<0.001
入院途径（对照组：其他医疗机构转入）
门诊-0.05516.8540.947（0.922~0.972）<0.001
急诊-0.05612.2810.946（0.916~0.976）<0.001
医院级别（对照组：二级医院）
三级医院-0.03817.6740.963（0.946~0.980）<0.001
未评定等级医院-0.0100.0360.990（0.895~1.096）0.850
), ArticleFig(id=1241023868064821349, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023856585011657, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

COPD患者一年内发生AECOPD的Cox回归风险分析

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
β值WaldHR值（95% CI）P值
年龄（岁）0.011812.3941.011（1.010~1.0102）<0.001
合并症个数0.080549.1851.083（1.076~1.090）<0.001
男（对照组：女）0.3871692.4881.473（1.446~1.500）<0.001
其他少数民族（对照组：汉族）-0.135139.4260.874（0.854~0.893）<0.001
医保类型（对照组：居民医保）
职工医保0.230542.3241.258（1.234~1.283）<0.001
贫困救助0.393160.6121.481（1.394~1.574）<0.001
其他0.133116.4171.143（1.115~1.171）<0.001
入院季节（对照组：秋季）
夏季0.0306.2251.030（1.006~1.055）0.013
春季0.10991.4111.115（1.090~1.140）<0.001
冬季0.08762.3191.091（1.068~1.115）<0.001
入院途径（对照组：其他医疗机构转入）
门诊-0.05516.8540.947（0.922~0.972）<0.001
急诊-0.05612.2810.946（0.916~0.976）<0.001
医院级别（对照组：二级医院）
三级医院-0.03817.6740.963（0.946~0.980）<0.001
未评定等级医院-0.0100.0360.990（0.895~1.096）0.850
), ArticleFig(id=1241023868186456173, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023856585011657, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Multiple linear regression analysis of the number of acute exacerbations within one year in patients with COPD

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量未标准化系数标准化系数
β		tP95%CI
βSE下限上限
(常量)-0.0280.011-2.6830.007-0.049-0.008
年龄（岁）0.0040.0010.05331.866<0.0010.0030.004
合并症个数0.0280.0010.04225.923<0.0010.0260.030
性别（对照组：女性）0.1070.0030.06641.205<0.0010.1020.112
民族（对照组：汉族）-0.0410.003-0.020-12.776<0.001-0.048-0.035
婚姻（对照组：非在婚）-0.0150.004-0.006-3.948<0.001-0.022-0.007
医保类型（对照组：职工医保）
居民医保-0.0590.003-0.037-18.798<0.001-0.065-0.053
贫困救助0.0650.0110.0106.007<0.0010.0440.086
其他医保0.0370.0040.0168.843<0.0010.0290.046
医院级别（对照组：三级医院）
二级医院-0.0280.003-0.018-11.057<0.001-0.033-0.023
入院途径（对照组：急诊）
门诊0.0190.0030.0115.880<0.0010.0130.025
其他机构转入0.0250.0050.0095.008<0.0010.0150.034
入院季节（对照组：冬季）
秋季-0.0330.003-0.018-11.180<0.001-0.038-0.027
夏季-0.0290.003-0.016-9.641<0.001-0.035-0.023
), ArticleFig(id=1241023868371005560, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1241023856585011657, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

COPD患者一年内AECOPD次数多重线性回归分析

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量未标准化系数标准化系数
β		tP95%CI
βSE下限上限
(常量)-0.0280.011-2.6830.007-0.049-0.008
年龄（岁）0.0040.0010.05331.866<0.0010.0030.004
合并症个数0.0280.0010.04225.923<0.0010.0260.030
性别（对照组：女性）0.1070.0030.06641.205<0.0010.1020.112
民族（对照组：汉族）-0.0410.003-0.020-12.776<0.001-0.048-0.035
婚姻（对照组：非在婚）-0.0150.004-0.006-3.948<0.001-0.022-0.007
医保类型（对照组：职工医保）
居民医保-0.0590.003-0.037-18.798<0.001-0.065-0.053
贫困救助0.0650.0110.0106.007<0.0010.0440.086
其他医保0.0370.0040.0168.843<0.0010.0290.046
医院级别（对照组：三级医院）
二级医院-0.0280.003-0.018-11.057<0.001-0.033-0.023
入院途径（对照组：急诊）
门诊0.0190.0030.0115.880<0.0010.0130.025
其他机构转入0.0250.0050.0095.008<0.0010.0150.034
入院季节（对照组：冬季）
秋季-0.0330.003-0.018-11.180<0.001-0.038-0.027
夏季-0.0290.003-0.016-9.641<0.001-0.035-0.023
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云南省慢阻肺患者急性加重影响因素分析——回顾性队列研究
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孟金良 1 , 罗国红 2 , 文戈弋 1 , 温瑷菡 2 , 张云辉 1 , 唐松源 2
现代预防医学 | 临床与预防 2025,52(2): 369-375
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现代预防医学 | 临床与预防 2025, 52(2): 369-375
云南省慢阻肺患者急性加重影响因素分析——回顾性队列研究
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孟金良1, 罗国红2, 文戈弋1, 温瑷菡2, 张云辉1 , 唐松源2
作者信息
  • 1．云南省第一人民医院，云南　昆明　650032
  • 2．昆明医科大学公共卫生学院健康研究所

    • 孟金良（1995—），男，硕士，初级统计师，研究方向：流行病与卫生统计学；

    罗国红（1998—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：流行病与卫生统计学

通讯作者:

张云辉与唐松源为共同通信作者；张云辉，E-mail：；
唐松源，E-mail：
Analysis of influencing factors for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Yunnan Province: A retrospective cohort study
Jin-liang MENG1, Guo-hong LUO2, Ge-yi WEN1, Ai-han WEN2, Yun-hui ZHANG1 , Song-yuan TANG2
Affiliations
  • The First People’s Hospital of Yunnan Province, Kunming, Yunnan 650032, China
出版时间: 2025-01-25 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202405164
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摘要
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目的

探究稳定期慢性阻塞性肺疾病（Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease，COPD）患者一年内慢性阻塞性肺疾病急性加重（Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease，AECOPD）的发生率、发生时间和影响因素。

方法

回顾性收集2016年—2022年云南省COPD病案首页人次信息，根据患者姓名和身份证号码建立时间纵向观察队列。计算COPD患者一年内AECOPD发生率、发生时间和平均加重次数，运用多元线性回归分析患者住院特征与一年内AECOPD次数的关系，运用Cox回归分析影响COPD患者一年内发生AECOPD的影响因素。

结果

405 428例COPD患者的平均年龄为（70.75±10.95）岁，平均合并（1.14±1.15）个合并症，一年内AECOPD发生率为17.55%，平均发生时间为（4.58±3.64）月，每位患者平均发生0.27次AECOPD。回归结果表明，性别（HR=1.473，95%CI：1.446~1.500）、年龄（HR=1.011，95%CI：1.010~1.012）、合并症个数（HR=1.083，95%CI：1.076~1.090）、医保类型（HR=1.481，95%CI：1.394~1.574）、入院季节（HR=1.115，95%CI：1.090~1.140）为COPD患者一年内发生急性加重的危险因素。

结论

云南省COPD患者一年内AECOPD发生率为17.55%，应从各项危险因素入手，重点关注为男性、高龄、合并症数量多、春冬季节入院和非居民医保的患者，采取相应的预防措施，加强COPD急性加重的管理。

慢性阻塞性肺疾病急性加重（AECOPD）  /  发生率  /  影响因素
Objective

To explore the incidence, time of occurrence and influencing factors of acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) in stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients within one year.

Methods

Retrospectively collected information on COPD case home page visits in Yunnan Province from 2016 to 2022, establishing a longitudinal observation cohort based on patients’ names and ID numbers. The incidence rate, time of occurrence and average number of AECOPD within one year of COPD were calculated, and the relationship between patients’ exposure factors and the number of AECOPD within one year was analyzed by using multivariate linear regression, and the exposure factors affecting AECOPD within one year of COPD patients were analyzed by using Cox regression.

Results

The mean age of 405 428 COPD patients was（70.75±10.95）years, the mean number of comorbidities was 1.14±1.15, the incidence of AECOPD within one year was 17.55%, the mean duration of occurrence was（4.58±3.64）months, and the mean number of AECOPD per patient was 0.27. The regression results showed that gender (HR=1.473, 95%CI: 1.446-1.500), age (HR=1.011, 95%CI: 1.010-1.012), number of comorbidities (HR=1.083, 95%CI: 1.076-1.090), medical insurance type (HR=1.481, 95%CI: 1.394-1.574), and admission season (HR=1.115, 95%CI: 1.090-1.140) were the influencing factors for acute exacerbation in patients with COPD within one year.

Conclusion

The incidence of AECOPD in COPD patients in Yunnan Province within one year is 17.55%. We should start from various risk factors and focus on male, elderly, patients with multiple comorbidities, those admitted in spring and winter seasons, and non-resident medical insurance patients. Take corresponding preventive measures and strengthen the management of AECOPD.

Acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(AECOPD)  /  Incidence rate  /  Influence factor
孟金良, 罗国红, 文戈弋, 温瑷菡, 张云辉, 唐松源. 云南省慢阻肺患者急性加重影响因素分析——回顾性队列研究. 现代预防医学, 2025 , 52 (2) : 369 -375 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202405164
Jin-liang MENG, Guo-hong LUO, Ge-yi WEN, Ai-han WEN, Yun-hui ZHANG, Song-yuan TANG. Analysis of influencing factors for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Yunnan Province: A retrospective cohort study[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2025 , 52 (2) : 369 -375 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202405164
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慢性阻塞性肺疾病（Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease，COPD）简称慢阻肺，是一种异质性肺部疾病，其特征是由于呼吸道异常（支气管炎、支细支气管炎）和/或肺泡（肺气肿）引起的慢性呼吸症状（呼吸困难、咳嗽、产痰和/或加重），导致持续的、通常是进行性的气流阻塞[1]。慢阻肺急性加重（acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, AECOPD）是指COPD患者呼吸困难和或咳嗽、咳痰症状进一步加重[1]，其发生加速了COPD患者的肺功能下降[2-3]，是COPD发展和管理中的重要事件和研究结局。据统计[4-7]，稳定期COPD患者每年发生0.5~3.5次急性加重，每年有22%~40%的COPD患者至少经历一次中度或重度加重，而9%~16%的患者经历不止一次，且随着病程的进展，急性加重可能会出现的更加频繁和严重。GOLD 2023指南将每年急性加重≥2次定义为慢阻肺频繁急性加重，<2次则为慢阻肺非频繁急性加重，研究表明[8-11]，COPD频繁急性加重患者的肺功能严重下降，导致住院次数更多、死亡风险增加，严重影响患者的生活质量，加重其经济负担。
本研究采用回顾性纵向研究的方法，收集2016年—2022年云南省COPD住院患者的病案首页人次信息，根据姓名和身份证号码进行患者身份识别和连接，建立时间纵向观察队列，计算出COPD患者一年内AECOPD发生率、发生时间和平均急性加重次数，探索影响COPD患者发生AECOPD的因素，旨在早期识别发生AECOPD的诱因，避免诱发因素发生，以期减少AECOPD发生及次数，提高患者生活质量，延缓疾病进程。
1　对象与方法
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1.1　研究对象
收集云南省COPD住院患者2016年1月1日至2022年12月31日的住院病案首页人次信息，根据住院患者的姓名和身份证号码，进行身份识别和个案连接，建立时间纵向观察队列，共纳入405 428例患者（队列建立流程见图1）。研究观察起点为：COPD住院患者首次住院的出院日期；观察终点为：观察一年（365天）。研究对象具体纳入和排除标准为：
纳入标准：(1)患者的主要出院诊断为COPD(ICD-10编码为J44开头，但不包括J44.801~J44.807、J44.800×001)；(2)年龄≥20岁住院患者。排除标准：(1)截止到2022年12月31日，观察时间未满一年的患者（365天）；(2)首次住院病案首页中，登记为死亡的患者；(3)主要研究变量缺失、不符逻辑的数据。本研究获云南省第一人民医院伦理委员会批准（KHLL2022-KY141-C-1）。
1.2　研究变量
暴露变量：性别、年龄、婚姻、民族、医保类型、主要诊断、入院途径、离院方式、合并症个数、合并症病种等；
结局变量：AECOPD发生与否、AECOPD发生次数。
评价指标：一年内AECOPD的发生率=发生AECOPD病例数/总人数；每位患者平均AECOPD发生次数=总AECOPD发生次数/总人数。
1.3　数据分析
研究采用SPSS 26进行统计分析。观察未发生AECOPD组、发生1次AECOPD组、发生≥2次AECOPD组间的资料分布，计数资料以[n（%）]表示, 比较行χ2检验；计量资料以（）表示，比较行F检验。使用Kaplan-Meier曲线估计12月内未发生AECOPD累积发生率。使用多元线性回归分析研究因素与AECOPD发生次数的关系。使用Cox回归分析研究因素对AECOPD发生和时间的影响。检验水准α=0.05。
2　结果
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2.1　研究对象
本研究最终纳入405 428例COPD患者（图1）。67.91%的COPD患者为男性，32.09%的COPD患者为女性，平均年龄（70.75±10.95）岁，60岁以上患者占84.40%。COPD患者平均合并（1.14±1.15）个合并症，主要合并高血压、肺动脉高压、心力衰竭等疾病。COPD患者中汉族占83.54%，少数民族占16.46%。68.03%的COPD患者来自二级医院，31.33%的COPD患者来自三级医院。患者的医保类型的主要为居民医保（64.02%），其次为职工医保（22.11%）。在春季、冬季入院的患者占54.43%。详见表1。
2.2　患者的AECOPD发生情况描述
AECOPD发生率为17.55%，每位患者平均发生AECOPD次数为0.27。一年内不同AECOPD次数分组对比结果显示：82.45%的COPD患者（n=334 260）未发生过AECOPD，12.57%的患者（n=50 986）有一次AECOPD发作，4.98%的患者频繁（≥2次）AECOPD发作（n=20 182）。不同组间的性别、年龄、医保类型、民族、婚姻、入院途径、医院级别、入院季节、合并症个数和合并症病种都存在差异，且差异具有统计学意义。其中，随着年龄的增大和合并症个数的增加，未发生AECOPD的人数占比都逐渐减少，呈下降趋势；而发生过AECOPD的患者人数占比都逐渐增多，呈上升趋势。详见表1。
2.3　影响COPD患者发生AECOPD的因素
Kaplan-Meier曲线显示，在一年的观察期内，不到20%的患者发生过AECOPD，且发生AECOPD的平均时间为（4.58±3.64）月（见图2）。以一年内是否发生AECOPD为因变量，个人和住院特征为自变量，进行多因素Cox回归分析，结果显示性别（HR=1.473，95%CI：1.446~1.500）、年龄（HR=1.011，95%CI：1.010~1.012）、合并症个数（HR=1.083，95%CI：1.076~1.090）、医保类型（HR=1.481，95%CI：1.394~1.574）、入院季节（HR=1.115，95%CI：1.090~1.140）为COPD患者一年内发生AECOPD的影响因素。数据结果还显示：少数民族（HR=0.874，95%CI：0.854~0.893），通过急诊（HR=0.946，95%CI：0.916~0.976）和门诊（HR=0.947，95%CI：0.922~0.972）入院，就医医疗机构为三级医院（HR=0.963，95%CI：0.946~0.980）是防止患者发生AECOPD的保护因素。详见图2、表2。
2.4　与AECOPD次数相关的因素
多重线性回归分析模型显示，F=501.978，R2=0.016，P<0.001，年龄、性别、合并症个数、民族、婚姻、医保类型、入院途径、医院级别、入院季节等9个因素是一年内AECOPD次数的影响因素。当Beta值为正值，说明因素对一年内AECOPD次数产生正向作用，Beta值为负值，说明因素对一年内AECOPD次数产生负向作用，其中性别（Beta=0.107）对一年内AECOPD次数贡献较大。详见表3。
3　讨论
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COPD是慢性气道炎症性疾病，当局部炎症介质进入血液循环后，可诱发全身效应，演变为COPD急性加重期。本研究结果显示，AECOPD的发生率为17.55%，低于汪群智等[12]、戈艳蕾等[13]、宋丽英等[14]研究报道的48.37%、53.75%和44.84%，这可能与研究纳入患者的异质性有关[15]，导致不同研究人群存在不一致的研究结果。本研究中COPD患者一年内平均发生0.27次AECOPD，远低于其他研究结果的0.37次[16]或1.3次[17]，造成此结果的原因可能是：在我们的基线情况中大部分COPD患者为稳定期，且观察时间较短，大部分患者病情还仍在发展状态，未转化为加重。
Cox回归分析结果显示年龄为发生AECOPD的影响因素，且随着年龄增大其发生风险也越大，其他研究同样表明[18-19]，较高的AECOPD频率与高龄相关，为发生AECOPD的危险因素，造成该结果的主要原因可能为：COPD患者随着年龄增长，身体各项机能逐渐下降，肺功能下降，发生AECOPD的频次增加，致使年龄成为发生AECOPD的危险因素。本研究显示男性发生AECOPD风险高于女性，原因可能为：相较于女性，男性烟草暴露量[20]、酗酒情况等显著高于女性[21]，此外基因的多态性也使男性更易罹患慢阻肺病[22]，使得男性患者发生AECOPD的风险高于女性，提示我们应该注意男性患者的身体健康，改掉不良生活习惯，减少有害环境的接触或加强个人防护。本研究结果中COPD患者大部分已婚，与张娅等[23]研究结果相似，这可能提示随着人均寿命的延长，非在婚状态的老人有所减少。本研究结果还显示，医保类型为贫困救助的患者发生AECOPD的风险高于其他医保类型的患者，可能原因是贫困救助人群的经济、居住环境和医院可及性等条件较差，或对于AECOPD的治疗和预防知识了解不够，致使该人群的加重风险高于其他人群。另有研究表明[19]，随着合并症个数的增加，将导致患者健康状况越来越差，患者身体机能严重受损，这与我们的研究结果相似，显示合并症个数为AECOPD发生的影响因素。此外，本研究还显示，相较于冬季，春季入院的患者发生AECOPD的风险更高，原因可能是春季潮湿，气温变化大，花粉尘土较多，细菌病毒活跃，导致患者加重风险较大。
本研究局限性包括：（1）本研究为一项回顾性队列研究，无法收集前期暴露因素，难以控制混杂因素，无法确立因果关系，因此本文揭示的影响因素与AECOPD是否存在因果关系需进一步验证；（2）病案首页通常只记录临床和治疗的基本信息，因此本研究缺乏个体特征、生活方式、遗传信息等深入因素的详细描述；（3）此外，COPD是一种长期的疾病，本研究仅观察COPD患者一年内的AECOPD情况，时间跨度较短，因此部分患者的AECOPD情况可能未被完全记录。
综上所述，在2016年—2022年期间，云南省COPD患者的AECOPD发生率为17.55％，每位患者平均发生AECOPD次数为0.27，在进行AECOPD管理过程中应该重点关注为男性、高龄、医保类型为贫困救助、冬季入院，合并症数量多的COPD患者。
基金
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  • 云南省慢阻肺群医学模式综合防控战略咨询研究项目(2022-DFZD-30)
文献
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2025年第52卷第2期
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202405164
  • 接收时间：2024-05-11
  • 首发时间：2026-03-18
  • 出版时间：2025-01-25
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  • 收稿日期：2024-05-11
基金
云南省慢阻肺群医学模式综合防控战略咨询研究项目(2022-DFZD-30)
作者信息
    1．云南省第一人民医院，云南　昆明　650032
    2．昆明医科大学公共卫生学院健康研究所

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