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Article(id=1240929924173853588, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1240929920461886112, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202401404, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1705852800000, receivedDateStr=2024-01-22, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773790349286, onlineDateStr=2026-03-18, pubDate=1717948800000, pubDateStr=2024-06-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773790349286, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-18, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773790349286, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773790349286, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1240929920461886112, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2024', volume='51', issue='11', pageStart='1921', pageEnd='2112', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=0, createTime=1773790348400, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773827281389, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1241084828704109275, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1240929920461886112, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1241084828704109276, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1240929920461886112, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=2049, endPage=2054, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1240929924471649198, articleId=1240929924173853588, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Study on the influencing factors of falls among the elderly in Shanghai, columnId=1228016572451718132, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Health and Social Behavior, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Objective To explore the influencing factors of falls in the elderly and to provide evidence for the prevention of falls. Methods The study was based on a large sample of 179 141 individuals in Shanghai, with a final inclusion of 40 244 participants. Firstly, independent variables including basic demographics, living environment, health status, and lifestyle habits were selected, with falls as the dependent variable, and univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted. Secondly, negative emotions were considered as independent variables, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed. Results The fall incidence rate in the elderly within 90 days was 19.55%. Living alone (fall within 30 days: OR=1.161, 95%CI:1.051-1.282; fall between 31-90 days: OR=1.173, 95%CI: 1.070-1.287), unclean living environment (OR=1.775, 95%CI:1.331-2.367; OR=1.117, 95%CI: 1.037-1.203), having ≥3 chronic diseases (OR=2.024, 95%CI: 1.763-2.322; OR=2.089,95%CI: 1.835-2.379), using urine or stool pads (OR=1.581, 95%CI: 1.351-1.850; OR=1.445, 95%CI: 1.239-1.685), and low frequency of outdoor activities (occasional outdoor activitie: OR=1.458, 95%CI: 1.171-1.816; OR=1.359, 95%CI: 1.114-1.658;rarely going out: OR=2.084, 95%CI: 1.673-2.596; OR=2.053, 95%CI: 1.682-2.506) were identified as risk factors for falls within 30 days and 31 to 90 days. Advanced age (70-79 years: OR=1.179, 95%CI: 1.063-1.308; 80 years and above: OR=1.159, 95%CI: 1.040-1.292), abnormal vision (OR=1.235, 95%CI: 1.079-1.414), and needing assistance with household chores (partially completed by others: OR=1.572, 95%CI: 1.139-2.169; fully completed by others: OR=1.649, 95%CI: 1.269-2.143)were risk factors for falls within 30 days. There was no collinearity between the independent variables. Compared with those who did not feel negative emotions, the elderly who frequently felt fatigued had a lower risk of falling (fall within 30 days: OR=0.886, 95%CI: 0.811-0.968; fall between 31-90 days: OR=0.900, 95%CI: 0.828-0.977), while the elderly who frequently felt angry had a higher risk of falling (fall within 30 days: OR=1.491, 95%CI: 1.248-1.782; fall between 31-90 days: OR=1.270,95%CI: 1.067-1.513). Conclusion Elderly individuals living with others, maintaining a clean and tidy indoor environment, having a flat and clutter-free floor, and maintaining a good emotional state have a reduced risk of falling. For elderly individuals with relatively good activities of daily living (ADL) and cognitive function, it is advisable to encourage appropriate outdoor activities and engage in moderate-intensity and frequency physical activities to prevent falls.

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目的 探索老年人群跌倒的影响因素，为预防跌倒提供证据。方法 研究基于上海市179 141人大样本数据，最终纳入40 244人。首先选取基本情况、居住环境、健康状况和生活习惯为自变量，跌倒情况为因变量，分别开展单因素和多因素logistic回归分析；其次选取负性情绪为自变量，跌倒情况为因变量，开展多因素logistic回归分析。结果 老年人90 d内跌倒发生率为19.55%。独居（30 d内跌倒OR=1.161，95%CI: 1.051～1.282；31～90 d跌倒OR=1.173，95%CI:1.070～1.287）、居住环境不干净不整洁（30 d内跌倒OR=1.775，95%CI: 1.331～2.367；31～90 d跌倒OR=1.117，95%CI:1.037～1.203）、患慢性病数量≥3种（30 d内跌倒OR=2.024，95%CI: 1.763～2.322；31～90 d跌倒OR=2.089，95%CI: 1.835～2.379）、使用尿便垫（30 d内跌倒OR=1.581，95%CI: 1.351～1.850；31～90 d跌倒OR=1.445，95%CI: 1.239～1.685）以及外出活动频次低（有时外出30 d内跌倒OR=1.458，95%CI: 1.171～1.816；31～90 d跌倒OR=1.359，95%CI: 1.114～1.658；几乎不外出30 d内跌倒OR=2.084，95%CI: 1.673～2.596；几乎不外出31～90 d跌倒OR=2.053，95%CI: 1.682～2.506）是30 d内、31～90 d跌倒的危险因素。年龄越大（70～79岁OR=1.179，95%CI: 1.063～1.308；80岁及以上OR= 1.159，95%CI: 1.040～1.292）、视力不正常（OR=1.235，95%CI: 1.079～1.414）、家务活需要他人帮助完成（部分由他人完成OR=1.572，95%CI: 1.139～2.169；完全由他人完成OR=1.649，95%CI: 1.269～2.143）是30 d内跌倒的危险因素。自变量之间无共线性。与未感到负性情绪者相比，经常感到疲乏的老人（30 d内跌倒OR=0.886，95%CI: 0.811～0.968；31～90 d跌倒OR=0.900，95%CI: 0.828～0.977）跌倒风险更低，经常感到生气的老人（30 d内跌倒OR=1.491，95%CI: 1.248～1.782；31～90 d跌倒OR=1.270，95%CI: 1.067～1.513）跌倒风险更高。结论 老人与他人共同居住，保持室内环境干净整洁、地面平整无杂物，以及保持良好的情绪状态，能够降低跌倒风险。对于ADL和认知功能相对较好的老年人，应当鼓励其适当外出，开展强度及频度适中的身体活动，有利于预防跌倒。

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丁汉升，E-mail:
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王常颖（1987—），硕士，副研究员，研究方向：老年健康、卫生管理、卫生经济研究

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王常颖（1987—），硕士，副研究员，研究方向：老年健康、卫生管理、卫生经济研究

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王常颖（1987—），硕士，副研究员，研究方向：老年健康、卫生管理、卫生经济研究

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Results from the ToFa study- a case-crossover study among elderly People in Stockholm, Sweden, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1240929929517396341, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240929924173853588, awardId=72074152, language=CN, fundingSource=国家自然科学基金(72074152), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1240929926115815467, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240929924173853588, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1240929926128398381, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240929924173853588, companyId=1240929926115815467, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Shanghai Health and Health Development Research Center (Shanghai Institute of Medical Science and Technology Information),Shanghai 200031, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1240929926136786990, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240929924173853588, companyId=1240929926115815467, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=上海市卫生和健康发展研究中心（上海市医学科学技术情报研究所），上海 200031)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1240929928519151894, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240929924173853588, language=EN, label=Figure 1, caption=The flowchart of research population selection, figureFileSmall=Pka2s6OaGpD6qjU/u2DtCg==, figureFileBig=LbJP3zXYMDTITtYwONgGOg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1240929928590455074, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240929924173853588, language=CN, label=图1, caption=研究人群筛选流程图, figureFileSmall=Pka2s6OaGpD6qjU/u2DtCg==, figureFileBig=LbJP3zXYMDTITtYwONgGOg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1240929928812753208, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240929924173853588, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Demographic characteristics ［（），n（%）］

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量90 d内无跌倒
(n=32 376)		31～90 d有跌倒
(n=3 877)		30 d内有跌倒
(n=3 991)		χ2/F值P值
年龄（岁）80.62±8.8281.27±8.3280.26±8.5712.774<0.001
性别7.1730.008
男12 890 (39.8)1 447 (37.3)1 571 (39.4)
女19 486 (60.2)2 430 (62.7)2 420 (60.6)
文化程度24.903<0.001
文盲10 036 (31.0)1 065 (27.5)1 070 (26.8)
小学6 377 (19.7)868 (22.4)792 (19.8)
初高中11 734 (36.2)1 378 (35.5)1 500 (37.6)
大学及以上2 488 (7.7)311 (8.0)350 (8.8)
共同居住情况12.3600.007
独居3 347 (10.3)455 (11.7)437 (10.9)
非独居27 416 (84.7)3 191 (82.3)3 305 (82.8)
有居住地电梯11 129 (34.4)1 316 (33.9)1 247 (31.2)5.866<0.001
有室内台阶2 431 (7.5)393 (10.1)381 (9.5)3.527<0.001
有居室内扶手3 070 (9.5)357 (9.2)338 (8.5)0.4600.112
有厕所扶手6 398 (19.8)780 (20.1)756 (18.9)0.7160.378
有浴室扶手7 185 (22.2)896 (23.1)858 (21.5)0.8890.220
居住环境是否干净整洁46.502<0.001
不干净不整洁420 (1.3)72 (1.9)102 (2.6)
尚可18 270 (56.4)2 243 (57.9)2 313 (58.0)
干净整洁13 686 (42.3)1 562 (40.3)1 576 (39.5)
慢性病数量（种）103.447<0.001
06 257 (19.3)540 (13.9)553 (13.9)
111 106 (34.3)1 278 (33.0)1 302 (32.6)
28 188 (25.3)1 050 (27.1)1 016 (25.5)
≥36 825 (21.1)1 009 (26.0)1 120 (28.1)
视力正常26 434 (81.6)3 106 (80.1)3 105 (77.8)14.067<0.001
听力正常24 097 (74.4)2 876 (74.2)2 889 (72.4)3.4420.020
关节受限数量（个）65.005<0.001
022 385 (69.1)2 417 (62.9)2 496 (62.5)
16 264 (19.3)898 (23.2)867 (21.7)
22 377 (7.3)360 (9.3)379 (9.5)
≥31 350 (4.2)182 (4.7)249 (6.3)
自评睡眠质量38.631<0.001
差20 246 (62.5)2 576 (66.4)2 680 (67.2)
一般11 537 (35.6)1 220 (31.5)1 214 (30.4)
好593 (1.8)81 (2.1)97 (2.4)
使用尿便垫6 719 (20.8)872 (22.5)1 044 (26.2)53.892<0.001
家务活承担52.6100.011
自己完成472 (1.5)45 (1.5)33 (0.8)
部分由他人完成475 (1.5)58 (1.5)45 (1.1)
完全由他人完成29 595 (91.4)3 514 (90.6)3 631 (91.0)
外出情况297.967<0.001
每天外出858 (2.7)67 (1.7)47 (1.2)
有时外出10 438 (32.2)1 041 (26.9)1 110 (27.8)
几乎不外出21 080 (65.1)2 769 (71.4)2 834 (71.0)
), ArticleFig(id=1240929928934388030, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240929924173853588, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

人口统计学情况［（），n（%）］

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量90 d内无跌倒
(n=32 376)		31～90 d有跌倒
(n=3 877)		30 d内有跌倒
(n=3 991)		χ2/F值P值
年龄（岁）80.62±8.8281.27±8.3280.26±8.5712.774<0.001
性别7.1730.008
男12 890 (39.8)1 447 (37.3)1 571 (39.4)
女19 486 (60.2)2 430 (62.7)2 420 (60.6)
文化程度24.903<0.001
文盲10 036 (31.0)1 065 (27.5)1 070 (26.8)
小学6 377 (19.7)868 (22.4)792 (19.8)
初高中11 734 (36.2)1 378 (35.5)1 500 (37.6)
大学及以上2 488 (7.7)311 (8.0)350 (8.8)
共同居住情况12.3600.007
独居3 347 (10.3)455 (11.7)437 (10.9)
非独居27 416 (84.7)3 191 (82.3)3 305 (82.8)
有居住地电梯11 129 (34.4)1 316 (33.9)1 247 (31.2)5.866<0.001
有室内台阶2 431 (7.5)393 (10.1)381 (9.5)3.527<0.001
有居室内扶手3 070 (9.5)357 (9.2)338 (8.5)0.4600.112
有厕所扶手6 398 (19.8)780 (20.1)756 (18.9)0.7160.378
有浴室扶手7 185 (22.2)896 (23.1)858 (21.5)0.8890.220
居住环境是否干净整洁46.502<0.001
不干净不整洁420 (1.3)72 (1.9)102 (2.6)
尚可18 270 (56.4)2 243 (57.9)2 313 (58.0)
干净整洁13 686 (42.3)1 562 (40.3)1 576 (39.5)
慢性病数量（种）103.447<0.001
06 257 (19.3)540 (13.9)553 (13.9)
111 106 (34.3)1 278 (33.0)1 302 (32.6)
28 188 (25.3)1 050 (27.1)1 016 (25.5)
≥36 825 (21.1)1 009 (26.0)1 120 (28.1)
视力正常26 434 (81.6)3 106 (80.1)3 105 (77.8)14.067<0.001
听力正常24 097 (74.4)2 876 (74.2)2 889 (72.4)3.4420.020
关节受限数量（个）65.005<0.001
022 385 (69.1)2 417 (62.9)2 496 (62.5)
16 264 (19.3)898 (23.2)867 (21.7)
22 377 (7.3)360 (9.3)379 (9.5)
≥31 350 (4.2)182 (4.7)249 (6.3)
自评睡眠质量38.631<0.001
差20 246 (62.5)2 576 (66.4)2 680 (67.2)
一般11 537 (35.6)1 220 (31.5)1 214 (30.4)
好593 (1.8)81 (2.1)97 (2.4)
使用尿便垫6 719 (20.8)872 (22.5)1 044 (26.2)53.892<0.001
家务活承担52.6100.011
自己完成472 (1.5)45 (1.5)33 (0.8)
部分由他人完成475 (1.5)58 (1.5)45 (1.1)
完全由他人完成29 595 (91.4)3 514 (90.6)3 631 (91.0)
外出情况297.967<0.001
每天外出858 (2.7)67 (1.7)47 (1.2)
有时外出10 438 (32.2)1 041 (26.9)1 110 (27.8)
几乎不外出21 080 (65.1)2 769 (71.4)2 834 (71.0)
), ArticleFig(id=1240929929047634247, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240929924173853588, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Multivariate logistic regression of falls

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量30 d内有跌倒31～90 d有跌倒
OR值(95%CI)P值OR值(95%CI)P值
性别（参照：女）
男1.011 (0.934～1.093)0.7900.941 (0.873～1.014)0.108
年龄（岁，参照：60～69）
70～790.993 (0.896～1.102)0.8981.179 (1.063～1.308)0.002
≥800.853 (0.763～0.952)0.0051.159 (1.040～1.292)0.007
文化程度（参照：文盲）
小学1.012 (0.890～1.150)0.8601.209 (1.069～1.366)0.002
初高中0.924 (0.819～1.043)0.1991.081 (0.962～1.216)0.190
大学及以上1.001 (0.853～1.176)0.9860.971 (0.829～1.137)0.712
共同居住情况（参照：非独居）
独居1.161 (1.051～1.282)0.0031.173 (1.070～1.287)0.001
居住地（参照：无电梯）
有电梯0.940 (0.863～1.024)0.1561.034 (0.955～1.120)0.405
室内（参照：无台阶）
有台阶1.142 (0.975～1.338)0.1001.085 (0.929～1.267)0.305
居室内（参照：无扶手）
有扶手0.979 (0.803～1.194)0.8360.931 (0.769～1.128)0.465
居住环境（参照：干净整洁）
尚可1.210 (1.119～1.309)<0.0011.502 (1.130～1.996)0.005
不干净不整洁1.775 (1.331～2.367)<0.0011.117 (1.037～1.203)0.003
慢性病（种，参照：0）
11.707 (1.508～1.933)<0.0011.647 (1.464～1.853)<0.001
21.554 (1.363～1.772)<0.0011.626 (1.437～1.839)<0.001
≥32.024 (1.763～2.322)<0.0012.089 (1.835～2.379)<0.001
视力（参照：正常）
不正常1.235 (1.079～1.414)0.0021.075 (0.939～1.230)0.294
听力（参照：正常）
不正常1.025 (0.888～1.183)0.7381.036 (0.906～1.185)0.607
关节受限数量（个，参照：0）
10.635 (0.491～0.821)0.0010.693 (0.538～0.893)0.005
20.720 (0.553～0.936)0.0140.792 (0.612～1.026)0.078
≥30.918 (0.692～1.219)0.5560.924 (0.699～1.222)0.581
睡眠质量（参照：好）
一般0.659 (0.524～0.828)<0.0010.859 (0.678～1.089)0.209
差0.744 (0.592～0.934)0.0110.951 (0.751～1.204)0.676
尿便垫（参照：不使用）
使用1.581 (1.351～1.850)<0.0011.445 (1.239～1.685)<0.001
家务活（参照：自己完成）
部分由他人完成1.572 (1.139～2.169)0.0061.206 (0.926～1.571)0.165
完全由他人完成1.649 (1.269～2.143)<0.0011.025 (0.832～1.262)0.817
外出情况（参照：每天外出）
有时外出1.458 (1.171～1.816)0.0011.359 (1.114～1.658)0.003
几乎不外出2.084 (1.673～2.596)<0.0012.053 (1.682～2.506)<0.001
), ArticleFig(id=1240929929135714642, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240929924173853588, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

跌倒的多因素logistic回归

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量30 d内有跌倒31～90 d有跌倒
OR值(95%CI)P值OR值(95%CI)P值
性别（参照：女）
男1.011 (0.934～1.093)0.7900.941 (0.873～1.014)0.108
年龄（岁，参照：60～69）
70～790.993 (0.896～1.102)0.8981.179 (1.063～1.308)0.002
≥800.853 (0.763～0.952)0.0051.159 (1.040～1.292)0.007
文化程度（参照：文盲）
小学1.012 (0.890～1.150)0.8601.209 (1.069～1.366)0.002
初高中0.924 (0.819～1.043)0.1991.081 (0.962～1.216)0.190
大学及以上1.001 (0.853～1.176)0.9860.971 (0.829～1.137)0.712
共同居住情况（参照：非独居）
独居1.161 (1.051～1.282)0.0031.173 (1.070～1.287)0.001
居住地（参照：无电梯）
有电梯0.940 (0.863～1.024)0.1561.034 (0.955～1.120)0.405
室内（参照：无台阶）
有台阶1.142 (0.975～1.338)0.1001.085 (0.929～1.267)0.305
居室内（参照：无扶手）
有扶手0.979 (0.803～1.194)0.8360.931 (0.769～1.128)0.465
居住环境（参照：干净整洁）
尚可1.210 (1.119～1.309)<0.0011.502 (1.130～1.996)0.005
不干净不整洁1.775 (1.331～2.367)<0.0011.117 (1.037～1.203)0.003
慢性病（种，参照：0）
11.707 (1.508～1.933)<0.0011.647 (1.464～1.853)<0.001
21.554 (1.363～1.772)<0.0011.626 (1.437～1.839)<0.001
≥32.024 (1.763～2.322)<0.0012.089 (1.835～2.379)<0.001
视力（参照：正常）
不正常1.235 (1.079～1.414)0.0021.075 (0.939～1.230)0.294
听力（参照：正常）
不正常1.025 (0.888～1.183)0.7381.036 (0.906～1.185)0.607
关节受限数量（个，参照：0）
10.635 (0.491～0.821)0.0010.693 (0.538～0.893)0.005
20.720 (0.553～0.936)0.0140.792 (0.612～1.026)0.078
≥30.918 (0.692～1.219)0.5560.924 (0.699～1.222)0.581
睡眠质量（参照：好）
一般0.659 (0.524～0.828)<0.0010.859 (0.678～1.089)0.209
差0.744 (0.592～0.934)0.0110.951 (0.751～1.204)0.676
尿便垫（参照：不使用）
使用1.581 (1.351～1.850)<0.0011.445 (1.239～1.685)<0.001
家务活（参照：自己完成）
部分由他人完成1.572 (1.139～2.169)0.0061.206 (0.926～1.571)0.165
完全由他人完成1.649 (1.269～2.143)<0.0011.025 (0.832～1.262)0.817
外出情况（参照：每天外出）
有时外出1.458 (1.171～1.816)0.0011.359 (1.114～1.658)0.003
几乎不外出2.084 (1.673～2.596)<0.0012.053 (1.682～2.506)<0.001
), ArticleFig(id=1240929929244766558, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240929924173853588, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Multivariate logistic regression of negative emotions and falls

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量30 d内有跌倒31～90 d有跌倒
OR值(95%CI)P值OR值(95%CI)P值
疲乏（参照：无）
经常0.886 (0.811～0.968)0.0070.900 (0.828～0.977)0.012
偶尔0.996 (0.889～1.116)0.9450.957 (0.858～1.068)0.431
生气（参照：无）
经常1.491 (1.248～1.782)<0.0011.270 (1.067～1.513)0.007
偶尔1.175 (1.076～1.283)<0.0010.993 (0.911～1.082)0.873
), ArticleFig(id=1240929929362207075, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240929924173853588, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

负性情绪与跌倒的多因素logistic回归

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
变量30 d内有跌倒31～90 d有跌倒
OR值(95%CI)P值OR值(95%CI)P值
疲乏（参照：无）
经常0.886 (0.811～0.968)0.0070.900 (0.828～0.977)0.012
偶尔0.996 (0.889～1.116)0.9450.957 (0.858～1.068)0.431
生气（参照：无）
经常1.491 (1.248～1.782)<0.0011.270 (1.067～1.513)0.007
偶尔1.175 (1.076～1.283)<0.0010.993 (0.911～1.082)0.873
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上海市老年人群跌倒的影响因素研究
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王常颖 , 张蕴伟 , 丁汉升
现代预防医学 | 健康与社会行为 2024,51(11): 2049-2054
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现代预防医学 | 健康与社会行为 2024, 51(11): 2049-2054
上海市老年人群跌倒的影响因素研究
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王常颖, 张蕴伟, 丁汉升
作者信息
  • 上海市卫生和健康发展研究中心（上海市医学科学技术情报研究所），上海 200031

    • 王常颖（1987—），硕士，副研究员，研究方向：老年健康、卫生管理、卫生经济研究

通讯作者:

丁汉升，E-mail:
Study on the influencing factors of falls among the elderly in Shanghai
Chang-ying WANG, Yun-wei ZHANG, Han-sheng DING
Affiliations
  • Shanghai Health and Health Development Research Center (Shanghai Institute of Medical Science and Technology Information),Shanghai 200031, China
出版时间: 2024-06-10 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202401404
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摘要
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目的 探索老年人群跌倒的影响因素，为预防跌倒提供证据。方法 研究基于上海市179 141人大样本数据，最终纳入40 244人。首先选取基本情况、居住环境、健康状况和生活习惯为自变量，跌倒情况为因变量，分别开展单因素和多因素logistic回归分析；其次选取负性情绪为自变量，跌倒情况为因变量，开展多因素logistic回归分析。结果 老年人90 d内跌倒发生率为19.55%。独居（30 d内跌倒OR=1.161，95%CI: 1.051～1.282；31～90 d跌倒OR=1.173，95%CI:1.070～1.287）、居住环境不干净不整洁（30 d内跌倒OR=1.775，95%CI: 1.331～2.367；31～90 d跌倒OR=1.117，95%CI:1.037～1.203）、患慢性病数量≥3种（30 d内跌倒OR=2.024，95%CI: 1.763～2.322；31～90 d跌倒OR=2.089，95%CI: 1.835～2.379）、使用尿便垫（30 d内跌倒OR=1.581，95%CI: 1.351～1.850；31～90 d跌倒OR=1.445，95%CI: 1.239～1.685）以及外出活动频次低（有时外出30 d内跌倒OR=1.458，95%CI: 1.171～1.816；31～90 d跌倒OR=1.359，95%CI: 1.114～1.658；几乎不外出30 d内跌倒OR=2.084，95%CI: 1.673～2.596；几乎不外出31～90 d跌倒OR=2.053，95%CI: 1.682～2.506）是30 d内、31～90 d跌倒的危险因素。年龄越大（70～79岁OR=1.179，95%CI: 1.063～1.308；80岁及以上OR= 1.159，95%CI: 1.040～1.292）、视力不正常（OR=1.235，95%CI: 1.079～1.414）、家务活需要他人帮助完成（部分由他人完成OR=1.572，95%CI: 1.139～2.169；完全由他人完成OR=1.649，95%CI: 1.269～2.143）是30 d内跌倒的危险因素。自变量之间无共线性。与未感到负性情绪者相比，经常感到疲乏的老人（30 d内跌倒OR=0.886，95%CI: 0.811～0.968；31～90 d跌倒OR=0.900，95%CI: 0.828～0.977）跌倒风险更低，经常感到生气的老人（30 d内跌倒OR=1.491，95%CI: 1.248～1.782；31～90 d跌倒OR=1.270，95%CI: 1.067～1.513）跌倒风险更高。结论 老人与他人共同居住，保持室内环境干净整洁、地面平整无杂物，以及保持良好的情绪状态，能够降低跌倒风险。对于ADL和认知功能相对较好的老年人，应当鼓励其适当外出，开展强度及频度适中的身体活动，有利于预防跌倒。

老年  /  跌倒  /  负性情绪  /  影响因素

Objective To explore the influencing factors of falls in the elderly and to provide evidence for the prevention of falls. Methods The study was based on a large sample of 179 141 individuals in Shanghai, with a final inclusion of 40 244 participants. Firstly, independent variables including basic demographics, living environment, health status, and lifestyle habits were selected, with falls as the dependent variable, and univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted. Secondly, negative emotions were considered as independent variables, and multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed. Results The fall incidence rate in the elderly within 90 days was 19.55%. Living alone (fall within 30 days: OR=1.161, 95%CI:1.051-1.282; fall between 31-90 days: OR=1.173, 95%CI: 1.070-1.287), unclean living environment (OR=1.775, 95%CI:1.331-2.367; OR=1.117, 95%CI: 1.037-1.203), having ≥3 chronic diseases (OR=2.024, 95%CI: 1.763-2.322; OR=2.089,95%CI: 1.835-2.379), using urine or stool pads (OR=1.581, 95%CI: 1.351-1.850; OR=1.445, 95%CI: 1.239-1.685), and low frequency of outdoor activities (occasional outdoor activitie: OR=1.458, 95%CI: 1.171-1.816; OR=1.359, 95%CI: 1.114-1.658;rarely going out: OR=2.084, 95%CI: 1.673-2.596; OR=2.053, 95%CI: 1.682-2.506) were identified as risk factors for falls within 30 days and 31 to 90 days. Advanced age (70-79 years: OR=1.179, 95%CI: 1.063-1.308; 80 years and above: OR=1.159, 95%CI: 1.040-1.292), abnormal vision (OR=1.235, 95%CI: 1.079-1.414), and needing assistance with household chores (partially completed by others: OR=1.572, 95%CI: 1.139-2.169; fully completed by others: OR=1.649, 95%CI: 1.269-2.143)were risk factors for falls within 30 days. There was no collinearity between the independent variables. Compared with those who did not feel negative emotions, the elderly who frequently felt fatigued had a lower risk of falling (fall within 30 days: OR=0.886, 95%CI: 0.811-0.968; fall between 31-90 days: OR=0.900, 95%CI: 0.828-0.977), while the elderly who frequently felt angry had a higher risk of falling (fall within 30 days: OR=1.491, 95%CI: 1.248-1.782; fall between 31-90 days: OR=1.270,95%CI: 1.067-1.513). Conclusion Elderly individuals living with others, maintaining a clean and tidy indoor environment, having a flat and clutter-free floor, and maintaining a good emotional state have a reduced risk of falling. For elderly individuals with relatively good activities of daily living (ADL) and cognitive function, it is advisable to encourage appropriate outdoor activities and engage in moderate-intensity and frequency physical activities to prevent falls.

Old age  /  Fall  /  Negative emotion  /  Influencing factors
王常颖, 张蕴伟, 丁汉升. 上海市老年人群跌倒的影响因素研究. 现代预防医学, 2024 , 51 (11) : 2049 -2054 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202401404
Chang-ying WANG, Yun-wei ZHANG, Han-sheng DING. Study on the influencing factors of falls among the elderly in Shanghai[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2024 , 51 (11) : 2049 -2054 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202401404
正文
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根据世界卫生组织（World Health Organization，WHO）的定义：“跌倒指导致一个人不慎落在地面、地板或其他低于其原先位置平面上的事故。[1]”在全球范围内，跌倒是一个重要的公共卫生问题，也是第二大非故意伤害死亡原因[1-2]。跌倒人群中60岁以上人群的死亡率最高[1]。跌倒不仅从生理和心理上给老年人的生活质量带来严重影响[3]，并且给个人、家庭及社会都造成了较大经济和照护负担[4]。跌倒通常是由多个风险因素共同导致的[5]。随着中国逐渐迈入老龄化社会，老年人群越来越多，随之而来的跌倒风险应当引起足够重视。本研究基于大样本横截面数据，探索老年人群跌倒的影响因素，具有较好的代表性。
1　资料与方法
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1.1　研究对象
本研究为横截面调查，研究人群为上海市常住人口中，于2023年1—5月自愿申请上海市长期护理保险，并接受上海市老年照护统一需求评估的60周岁及以上老人。排除标准：（1）中度、重度失能者。该人群日常身体活动能力（activity of daily living，ADL）受限，部分以长期卧床为主，跌倒形式与有一定ADL的老人不同；（2）中度、重度失智，以及被专业精神科医生诊断为痴呆者。该人群中，中度、重度失智者由于认知能力受限，日常生活活动范围可能受限。被诊断为痴呆者可能服用精神类药物，有研究指出精神卫生类药物可致跌倒[6-7]，由于本研究未调查痴呆患者服药情况，故而排除；（3）患有威胁生命的严重疾病者。该人群以治疗疾病为首要目的。失能程度由巴氏量表（Barthel index）评估得出，失智程度由简易精神状态检查表（mini-mental state examination，MMSE）评估得出。本研究已通过上海市卫生和健康发展研究中心（上海市医学科学技术情报研究所）伦理委员会审查（批准号：2020001）。调查开始前，研究对象完成知情同意。
研究最终纳入40 244人，其中近90 d有跌倒7 868人、占比19.55%。跌倒老人中，31～90 d跌倒者3 877人，最近30 d内跌倒者3 991人。见图1。
1.2　数据收集
评估人员须经全市统一培训合格并取得相关资质。经老人自愿申请及系统指派，评估人员可上门开展评估工作。上门评估人员不少于两人，其中一人为具有养老服务、医疗护理或社会工作经验人员，一人为执业医师。评估人员使用《上海市老年照护统一需求评估调查表》进行现场评估，收集数据并录入评估系统[8]。
1.3　统计分析
本研究使用SPSS 23.0进行数据分析。首先，选取自变量：（1）基本情况：年龄、性别、文化程度、共同居住情况；（2）居住环境：居住地电梯、室内台阶、居室内扶手、厕所内扶手、浴室内扶手情况，居住环境是否干净整洁；（3）健康状况：慢性病患病数量、视力、听力、关节活动受限数量、自评睡眠质量；（4）生活习惯：家务活承担情况、外出频次；因变量分为三类：近90 d无跌倒、31～90 d有跌倒、以及30 d内有跌倒发生，对跌倒的影响因素分别开展单因素和多因素logistic回归分析。其次，选取负性情绪是否感到疲乏、是否更容易生气激动为自变量，因变量为跌倒情况，协变量为单因素和多因素logistic回归分析中显著的变量，对负性情绪与跌倒的关联开展多因素logistic回归分析。连续变量采用单因素ANOVA检验，分类变量采用χ2检验，检验水准α=0.05。
2　结果
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2.1　基本情况
结果显示，该人群90 d内跌倒发生率为19.55%。三组老人在年龄、性别、文化程度、共同居住情况、居住地有无电梯、室内有无台阶、居住环境是否干净整洁、慢性病患病数量、视力、听力、关节活动受限数量、自评睡眠质量、家务活承担情况、外出频次等方面差异显著。三组老人年龄普遍较大，平均年龄达80岁以上，女性老人数约占60%。跌倒组老人身体状况更差，包括慢性病患病数量更多的比例更高、关节活动受限数量更多的比例更高，以及尿便垫使用比例更高。见表1。
2.2　跌倒的影响因素
先用单因素logistic回归模型分析老年人群30 d内跌倒、31～90 d跌倒的影响因素，再将显著的变量做多因素logistic回归。结果显示，与60～69岁老人相比，80岁及以上老人30 d内跌倒风险更低，70岁及以上老人31～90 d跌倒风险更高；与文盲相比，小学文化程度的老人31～90 d跌倒风险更高；与非独居相比，独居老人30 d内、31～90 d内跌倒风险均更高。见表2。
从居住环境来看，与居住环境干净整洁相比，干净整洁程度较差的老人30 d内、31～90 d的跌倒风险更高。其中，居住环境不干净不整洁的老人30 d内跌倒风险是居住环境干净整洁老人的1.775倍。
从健康状况来看，总体而言，随着老人患慢性病数量的升高，跌倒风险升高。患3种及以上慢性病的老人30 d内、31～90 d跌倒的风险分别是未患病老人的2.024倍、2.089倍。视力不正常、使用尿便垫是跌倒的危险因素，有1个受限关节、睡眠质量一般是跌倒的保护因素。
从生活习惯来看，与自己全部完成家务活的老人相比，自己部分完成家务活及全部由他人完成家务活的老人，30 d内跌倒风险更高。与每天外出的老人相比，有时外出与几乎不外出的老人跌倒风险更高。其中，几乎不外出的老人30 d内、31～90 d跌倒的风险分别是每天外出老人的2.084倍、2.053倍。
共线性诊断结果显示，各自变量之间的方差膨胀因子（VIF）均小于2，表明自变量之间无共线性。
2.3　负性情绪与跌倒
选取负性情绪是否感到疲乏、是否更容易生气激动为自变量，因变量为跌倒情况，调整表2中显著的变量，对负性情绪与跌倒的关联开展多因素logistic回归分析。结果发现，与未出现疲乏情绪的老人相比，经常感到疲乏的老人30 d内、31～90 d跌倒的风险更低；与未出现生气情绪的老人相比，经常感到生气的老人跌倒风险更高，其30 d内、31～90 d跌倒的风险分别是未感到生气者的1.491倍、1.270倍，且生气越频繁者的跌倒风险越高。见表3。
3　讨论
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本研究根据研究目的最终纳入40 244人，90 d内跌倒发生率为19.55%。研究将跌倒风险与基本情况、居住环境、健康状况、生活习惯四类因素的关联分别开展了单因素和多因素logistic回归分析，结果发现年龄、文化程度、共同居住情况、居住环境干净整洁程度、患慢性病数量、视力、关节受限数量、自评睡眠质量、尿便垫使用情况、家务活完成情况和外出频次等均是跌倒的影响因素。
第一，本研究发现年龄越大、独居老人跌倒风险高，以往研究也得到了类似结论[9-12]，说明在有人共同居住的情况下，老人有他人的帮助，能够降低发生跌倒事件的风险。建议老人即便ADL和精神状况相对较好，也应当尽量有人共同居住，预防跌倒发生。
第二，居住环境不干净整洁，跌倒风险高。相关研究也指出，环境危险因素如湿滑、地面不平等与跌倒之间被证明有关联[13-14]，较佳的生活环境是预防跌倒发生的保护因素[15]。因而维护老人居住室内环境干净整洁，以及保持地面平整无杂物，能够避免老人因环境刺激引发跌倒，也能够提高老人的安全感。
第三，随着慢性病患病数量的升高，跌倒风险越高。以往研究也证实了患慢性病者跌倒风险更高的结论[12，16]。视力不正常的老人跌倒风险高，与前期文献研究结论一致[17-18]。说明老人保持较好的身体健康状况和视力情况，能够预防跌倒。日常使用尿便垫的老人跌倒风险高，有研究指出，跌倒的风险因素包括尿失禁[19]，说明应当更加警惕失禁老人的跌倒风险。同时，失禁老人活动受限明显，但使用尿便垫可以降低活动受限的风险[20]。因而，对存在大小便失禁的老人而言，使用尿便垫对维持老人日常活动具有积极意义，应当在鼓励其使用尿便垫的前提下注意防范跌倒风险。此外，本研究发现关节受限、自评睡眠质量一般及较差是跌倒的保护因素，与以往研究[21-22]结论不一致。由外出频次可知，本研究中关节受限老人外出频次非常低，可能是跌倒风险低的解释之一。由于本研究是横断面分析，不能阐明因果关系，睡眠质量差可能是跌倒导致，两者之间的关系有待进一步分析。
第四，家务活需要他人帮助完成、以及外出活动频次低的老人跌倒风险较高。研究发现，较低的每周步行活动水平与跌倒显著相关[6]，身体活动较低的人群有显著的高复发性跌倒风险[23]，锻炼可降低老年人的跌倒风险。同时，随着年龄的增长，身体活动减少，大部分老年人没有达到推荐的体育活动水平[24]，保持一定程度的身体活动对老年人尤为重要[25]。另有研究指出，身体活动水平与跌倒风险之间的关联是U型的，即活动或锻炼的预防效果可能会被活跃人群跌倒概率的增加所抵消[25]。因而，老人应当适当地开展身体活动，强度、频度保持适中水平。跌倒老人由于活动能力受限、外出频次减少，可能会对身体健康状况造成进一步退化，应当鼓励其维持一定水平的身体活动，以较为缓和的慢运动为主。中医传统运动如太极[26]、八段锦[27]，对跌倒都有较好的预防作用。
本研究还分析了负性情绪与跌倒的关联。与未感到负性情绪者相比，经常感到疲乏的老人跌倒的风险更低，经常感到生气的老人跌倒风险更高。有研究发现，情绪状态会影响ADL，情感与身体性能显著相关[28]，下降的ADL进一步影响跌倒风险。另一项研究指出，情绪压力发生后的一小时内跌倒和随后髋部或骨盆骨折的风险增加[29]。本研究中，生气情绪与跌倒风险的关联与以往研究结论一致。感到疲乏是跌倒保护因素的可能解释为，疲乏者休息增多、身体活动减少，降低了跌倒风险，两者的关联有待深入探索。
本研究也存在一些不足，一是本研究为横断面分析，仅能说明因素之间的关联，并不能够阐明因果关系；二是由于研究对象是自愿申请上海市长期护理保险的人群，具有不同程度的照护需求，因而相对普通老年人群而言，年龄偏大、身体状况相对差一些。但本研究的优点在于研究人群庞大，代表性较佳。
综上所述，年龄越大、独居、居住环境不干净不整洁、慢性病患病数量多、视力不正常、家务活需要他人帮助完成、使用尿便垫以及外出活动频次低是跌倒的危险因素，共线性诊断结果显示自变量之间无共线性。研究还分析了负性情绪与跌倒的关联。与未感到负性情绪者相比，经常感到疲乏的老人跌倒的风险更低，经常感到生气的老人跌倒风险更高。建议老人与他人共同居住，保持室内环境干净整洁、地面平整无杂物，以及保持良好的情绪状态、减少生气，能够降低跌倒风险。因此，对于ADL和认知功能水平相对较好的老年人，应当鼓励其适当外出，开展强度、频度适中的身体活动，有利于维持身体活动能力、减少负性情绪，预防跌倒。
基金
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  • 国家自然科学基金(72074152)
文献
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参考文献 引证文献
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2024年第51卷第11期
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202401404
  • 接收时间：2024-01-22
  • 首发时间：2026-03-18
  • 出版时间：2024-06-10
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  • 收稿日期：2024-01-22
基金
国家自然科学基金(72074152)
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    上海市卫生和健康发展研究中心（上海市医学科学技术情报研究所），上海 200031

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