Article(id=1240730061238759623, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1240730050669113883, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202412208, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1733932800000, receivedDateStr=2024-12-12, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773742698248, onlineDateStr=2026-03-17, pubDate=1745510400000, pubDateStr=2025-04-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773742698248, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-17, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773742698248, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773742698248, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1240730050669113883, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2025', volume='52', issue='8', pageStart='1345', pageEnd='1536', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773742695728, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773742807836, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1240730520988995837, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1240730050669113883, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1240730520988995838, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1240730050669113883, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=1502, endPage=1508, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1240730061528166622, articleId=1240730061238759623, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Efficacy evaluation and prognostic factors analysis of elderly rectal cancer based on propensity score overlapping weighting method, columnId=1228016569138213037, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Clinical Medicine and Prevention, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To evaluate the efficacy of three treatment modalities, preoperative, postoperative, and combined preoperative and postoperative systemic therapy, in elderly patients with rectal cancer (RC), and to analyze the prognostic factors for elderly RC patients.

Methods

Data from 4612 RC patients aged 60 and above were used, sourced from the SEER database between 2011 and 2015. The Overlap Weighting (OW) method based on XGBoost was employed to balance covariate differences between treatment groups and assess the impact of different treatment regimens on the survival prognosis of RC patients. Survival curves were plotted using the Kaplan-Meier method, and Log-rank tests were conducted. Cox regression analysis was utilized to evaluate independent risk factors affecting the survival of RC patients.

Results

After OW weighting, the three treatment groups achieved balance across all covariates. The survival rates among different treatment groups were statistically significant (P<0.001). The 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival rates were 94.6%, 82.2%, and 71.6% for the preoperative systemic therapy group, 95.0%, 79.0%, and 67.8% for the postoperative systemic therapy group, and 97.3%, 85.5%, and 73.4% for the combined preoperative and postoperative systemic therapy group, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that, compared to the preoperative systemic therapy group, the specific death hazard ratio for the postoperative systemic therapy group was 1.216(95% CI: 1.072-1.381). Patients with liver metastasis had a specific death hazard ratio of 1.719(95% CI: 1.253-2.358) compared to those without liver metastasis.

Conclusion

The sequence of systematic treatment has a significant impact on the survival prognosis of elderly RC patients. After controlling for factors such as age and gender, preoperative systemic treatment had a better survival prognosis among the three treatment methods; Liver metastasis may be an independent factor affecting the prognosis of RC patients.

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目的

本研究旨在评估术前、术后及术前后均系统治疗3种治疗方案对老年人群直肠癌(RC)患者的的疗效,分析老年RC患者预后影响因素。

方法

本研究使用SEER数据库中2011—2015年间60岁及以上的4612例RC患者数据。采用XGBoost的重叠加权(OW)方法均衡治疗组间的协变量差异,并评估不同治疗方案对RC患者生存预后的影响。通过Kaplan-Meier方法绘制生存曲线,并进行log-rank检验,使用Cox回归分析评估影响RC患者生存期的独立危险因素。

结果

经过OW加权后,三组治疗方案在各协变量上均实现均衡。不同治疗组的生存率差异具有统计学意义(P<0.001)。术前系统治疗组的1年、3年和5年生存率分别为94.6%、82.2%和71.6%,术后系统治疗组为95.0%、79.0%和67.8%,术前后均系统治疗组为97.3%、85.5%和73.4%。多因素Cox回归分析结果显示,与术前系统治疗组相比,术后系统治疗组特异性HR=1.216(95% CI: 1.072~1.381)。与不发生肝转移的患者相比,发生肝转移的患者特异性死亡HR=1.719(95%CI: 1.253~2.358)。

结论

系统治疗的顺序对老年RC患者的生存预后具有显著影响。在控制年龄、性别等因素的影响后,3种治疗方式中术前系统治疗的生存预后更佳;肝转移可能是RC患者预后的独立影响因素。

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王素珍、石福艳、孔雨佳为共同通信作者。王素珍,E-mail:
石福艳,E-mail:
孔雨佳,E-mail:
, copyrightStatement=本刊刊出的所有文章不代表中华预防医学会和本刊编委会的观点,除非特别声明。, copyrightOwner=中华预防医学会和四川大学华西公共卫生学院, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=Cyl3/35DGPC4fTIdR/p8WQ==, magXml=zd6ex4B95hg19AnnPcE4aQ==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=P/2NK7i/96Zd0YbqiRdMsA==, pdfFileSize=708851, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=0AJlCEV6/hWeT1jeEdW4fw==, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=WQ1Ea3YxN5BOgIisturPug==, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=

丛显铸(1998—),男,硕士在读,研究方向:卫生统计学

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丛显铸(1998—),男,硕士在读,研究方向:卫生统计学

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Oncologist, 2021, 26(9): e1555-e1566., articleTitle=Total neoadjuvant therapy (TNT) versus standard neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy for locally advanced rectal cancer: a systematic review and Meta-Analysis, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1241070733833589051, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730061238759623, awardId=81872719, language=CN, fundingSource=国家自然科学基金面上项目(81872719), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1241070733921669441, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730061238759623, awardId=81803337, language=CN, fundingSource=国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(81803337), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1241070734034915657, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730061238759623, awardId=ZR2019MH034, language=CN, fundingSource=山东省科技厅自然科学基金项目(ZR2019MH034), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1241070734139773263, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730061238759623, awardId=ZR2023MH313, language=CN, fundingSource=山东省科技厅自然科学基金项目(ZR2023MH313), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1241070726107681771, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730061238759623, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241070726111876075, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730061238759623, companyId=1241070726107681771, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Department of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang 261053, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241070726120264684, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730061238759623, companyId=1241070726107681771, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=山东第二医科大学公共卫生学院卫生统计学教研室,潍坊 261053)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1241070732491411691, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730061238759623, language=EN, label=Fig.1, caption=Comparison of ASMD before and after overlapping weighting, figureFileSmall=yVNfUs8F8KG5WOsFRt4sqQ==, figureFileBig=TFjm/4FaDWDdbfi40UlkxQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241070732592074997, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730061238759623, language=CN, label=图1, caption=重叠加权前后标准化均差比较, figureFileSmall=yVNfUs8F8KG5WOsFRt4sqQ==, figureFileBig=TFjm/4FaDWDdbfi40UlkxQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241070732734681340, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730061238759623, language=EN, label=Fig.2, caption=Comparison of survival rates among three groups of elderly rectal cancer patients before overlapping weighting (A) and after overlapping weighting (B), figureFileSmall=8klFyI+sjsz5PiiTL/ffRg==, figureFileBig=cXsySYxlAIQuBUvUk9cRDA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241070732839538946, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730061238759623, language=CN, label=图2, caption=重叠加权前(A)、重叠加权后(B)3组老年直肠癌患者间生存率比较, figureFileSmall=8klFyI+sjsz5PiiTL/ffRg==, figureFileBig=cXsySYxlAIQuBUvUk9cRDA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241070732977950988, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730061238759623, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Comparison of baseline data of elderly rectal cancer patients with three systematic treatment regimens[n(%)]

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
协变量术前系统治疗组(n=2 204)术后系统治疗组(n=1 318)术前后均系统治疗组(n=1 090)重叠加权前重叠加权后
χ2Pχ2P
性别3.2150.2000.0450.952
1 351(61.3)786(59.6)689(63.2)
853(38.7)532(40.4)401(36.8)
种族3.4720.4820.0650.991
白人1 830(83.0)1 089(82.6)904(82.9)
黑人169(7.7)104(7.9)70(6.4)
其他人种205(9.3)125(9.5)116(10.6)
年龄(岁)70.231<0.0010.2930.869
60~691 284(58.3)720(54.6)741(68.0)
70~79710(32.2)444(33.7)308(28.3)
≥80210(9.5)154(11.7)41(3.8)
婚姻情况14.0830.0290.0351.000
离异226(10.3)137(10.4)125(11.5)
已婚1 378(62.5)838(63.6)723(66.3)
单身306(13.9)156(11.8)108(9.9)
丧偶294(13.3)187(14.2)134(12.3)
T分期121.91<0.0010.1930.975
T1110(5.0)142(10.8)34(3.1)
T2266(12.1)217(16.5)103(9.4)
T31 618(73.4)804(61.0)845(77.5)
T4210(9.5)155(11.8)108(9.9)
N分期130.42<0.0010.7780.536
N01 094(49.6)516(39.2)418(38.3)
N1896(40.7)522(39.6)539(49.4)
N2214(9.7)280(21.2)133(12.2)
M分期51.854<0.0010.3160.727
M02 028(92.0)1 117(84.7)997(91.5)
M1176(8.0)201(15.3)93(8.5)
肝转移34.668<0.0010.2730.760
2 090(94.8)1 183(89.8)1024(93.9)
114(5.2)135(10.2)66(6.1)
), ArticleFig(id=1241070733074419986, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730061238759623, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

3种系统治疗方案的老年直肠癌患者基线资料比较[n (%)]

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
协变量术前系统治疗组(n=2 204)术后系统治疗组(n=1 318)术前后均系统治疗组(n=1 090)重叠加权前重叠加权后
χ2Pχ2P
性别3.2150.2000.0450.952
1 351(61.3)786(59.6)689(63.2)
853(38.7)532(40.4)401(36.8)
种族3.4720.4820.0650.991
白人1 830(83.0)1 089(82.6)904(82.9)
黑人169(7.7)104(7.9)70(6.4)
其他人种205(9.3)125(9.5)116(10.6)
年龄(岁)70.231<0.0010.2930.869
60~691 284(58.3)720(54.6)741(68.0)
70~79710(32.2)444(33.7)308(28.3)
≥80210(9.5)154(11.7)41(3.8)
婚姻情况14.0830.0290.0351.000
离异226(10.3)137(10.4)125(11.5)
已婚1 378(62.5)838(63.6)723(66.3)
单身306(13.9)156(11.8)108(9.9)
丧偶294(13.3)187(14.2)134(12.3)
T分期121.91<0.0010.1930.975
T1110(5.0)142(10.8)34(3.1)
T2266(12.1)217(16.5)103(9.4)
T31 618(73.4)804(61.0)845(77.5)
T4210(9.5)155(11.8)108(9.9)
N分期130.42<0.0010.7780.536
N01 094(49.6)516(39.2)418(38.3)
N1896(40.7)522(39.6)539(49.4)
N2214(9.7)280(21.2)133(12.2)
M分期51.854<0.0010.3160.727
M02 028(92.0)1 117(84.7)997(91.5)
M1176(8.0)201(15.3)93(8.5)
肝转移34.668<0.0010.2730.760
2 090(94.8)1 183(89.8)1024(93.9)
114(5.2)135(10.2)66(6.1)
), ArticleFig(id=1241070733237997847, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730061238759623, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Survival rates (%) and 95% confidence intervals of three groups of elderly rectal cancerpatients before and after overlapping weighting

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
生存指标术前系统治疗组术后系统治疗组术前后均系统治疗组
重叠加权前1年生存率(%)93.9(92.9~94.9)92.4(91.0~93.9)97.6(96.7~98.5)
3年生存率(%)81.4(79.8~83.1)73.9(71.6~76.3)85.8(83.7~87.9)
5年生存率(%)70.8(68.9~72.7)62.8(60.3~65.5)73.9(71.3~76.6)
重叠加权后1年生存率(%)94.6(93.6~95.7)95.0(93.7~96.4)97.3(96.2~98.4)
3年生存率(%)82.2(80.4~84.0)79.0(76.6~81.5)85.5(83.3~87.8)
5年生存率(%)71.6(69.6~73.8)67.8(64.9~70.7)73.4(70.6~76.3)
), ArticleFig(id=1241070733359632669, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730061238759623, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

重叠加权前、重叠加权后3组老年直肠癌患者生存率(%)及95% CI

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
生存指标术前系统治疗组术后系统治疗组术前后均系统治疗组
重叠加权前1年生存率(%)93.9(92.9~94.9)92.4(91.0~93.9)97.6(96.7~98.5)
3年生存率(%)81.4(79.8~83.1)73.9(71.6~76.3)85.8(83.7~87.9)
5年生存率(%)70.8(68.9~72.7)62.8(60.3~65.5)73.9(71.3~76.6)
重叠加权后1年生存率(%)94.6(93.6~95.7)95.0(93.7~96.4)97.3(96.2~98.4)
3年生存率(%)82.2(80.4~84.0)79.0(76.6~81.5)85.5(83.3~87.8)
5年生存率(%)71.6(69.6~73.8)67.8(64.9~70.7)73.4(70.6~76.3)
), ArticleFig(id=1241070733481267494, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730061238759623, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Results of Multivariate Cox Regression Analysis of Overlapping Weighted Elderly Rectal Cancer Patients

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
协变量回归系数系数标准误ZPHR(95% CI)
性别
参照
-0.322 2.122 -5.113>0.0010.725(0.641~0.820)
种族
白人参照
黑人 0.396 3.556 3.807>0.0011.486(1.212~1.822)
其他人种 -0.211 3.725 -1.9690.0470.810(0.657~0.999)
年龄(岁)
60~69参照
70~79 0.300 2.074 4.826>0.0011.349(1.195~1.524)
≥80 0.933 3.619 8.685>0.0012.543(2.060~3.139)
婚姻情况
离异参照
已婚 -0.274 3.028 -2.9500.0030.760(0.634~0.912)
单身 0.091 3.862 0.7930.4281.096(0.874~1.373)
丧偶 0.047 3.901 0.3770.7061.048(0.821~1.337)
T分期
T1参照
T2 -0.004 6.631 -0.0210.9840.996(0.670~1.481)
T3 0.512 5.694 2.8980.0041.669(1.180~2.361)
T4 1.033 6.159 5.335>0.0012.808(1.922~4.104)
N分期
N0参照
N1 0.262 2.126 4.068>0.0011.299(1.145~1.474)
N2 0.689 2.752 8.436>0.0011.993(1.698~2.339)
M分期
M0参照
M1 0.900 4.648 6.352>0.0012.459(1.863~3.246)
肝转移
参照
0.542 5.256 3.3610.0011.719(1.253~2.358)
治疗方案
术前系统治疗参照
术后系统治疗 0.196 2.287 3.0300.0021.216(1.072~1.381)
术前后均系统治疗 -0.030 2.344 -0.4350.6640.971(0.849~1.110)
), ArticleFig(id=1241070733615485231, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730061238759623, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

重叠加权后老年直肠癌患者多因素Cox回归分析结果

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
协变量回归系数系数标准误ZPHR(95% CI)
性别
参照
-0.322 2.122 -5.113>0.0010.725(0.641~0.820)
种族
白人参照
黑人 0.396 3.556 3.807>0.0011.486(1.212~1.822)
其他人种 -0.211 3.725 -1.9690.0470.810(0.657~0.999)
年龄(岁)
60~69参照
70~79 0.300 2.074 4.826>0.0011.349(1.195~1.524)
≥80 0.933 3.619 8.685>0.0012.543(2.060~3.139)
婚姻情况
离异参照
已婚 -0.274 3.028 -2.9500.0030.760(0.634~0.912)
单身 0.091 3.862 0.7930.4281.096(0.874~1.373)
丧偶 0.047 3.901 0.3770.7061.048(0.821~1.337)
T分期
T1参照
T2 -0.004 6.631 -0.0210.9840.996(0.670~1.481)
T3 0.512 5.694 2.8980.0041.669(1.180~2.361)
T4 1.033 6.159 5.335>0.0012.808(1.922~4.104)
N分期
N0参照
N1 0.262 2.126 4.068>0.0011.299(1.145~1.474)
N2 0.689 2.752 8.436>0.0011.993(1.698~2.339)
M分期
M0参照
M1 0.900 4.648 6.352>0.0012.459(1.863~3.246)
肝转移
参照
0.542 5.256 3.3610.0011.719(1.253~2.358)
治疗方案
术前系统治疗参照
术后系统治疗 0.196 2.287 3.0300.0021.216(1.072~1.381)
术前后均系统治疗 -0.030 2.344 -0.4350.6640.971(0.849~1.110)
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基于倾向性评分重叠加权法的老年直肠癌疗效评价及其预后影响因素分析
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丛显铸 , 李爽 , 葛佳瑜 , 王爱民 , 孔雨佳 , 石福艳 , 王素珍
现代预防医学 | 临床与预防 2025,52(8): 1502-1508
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现代预防医学 | 临床与预防 2025, 52(8): 1502-1508
基于倾向性评分重叠加权法的老年直肠癌疗效评价及其预后影响因素分析
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丛显铸, 李爽, 葛佳瑜, 王爱民, 孔雨佳 , 石福艳 , 王素珍
作者信息
  • 山东第二医科大学公共卫生学院卫生统计学教研室,潍坊 261053
  • 丛显铸(1998—),男,硕士在读,研究方向:卫生统计学

通讯作者:

王素珍、石福艳、孔雨佳为共同通信作者。王素珍,E-mail:
石福艳,E-mail:
孔雨佳,E-mail:
Efficacy evaluation and prognostic factors analysis of elderly rectal cancer based on propensity score overlapping weighting method
Xian-zhu CONG, Shuang LI, Jia-yu GE, Ai-min WANG, Yu-jia KONG , Fu-yan SHI , Su-zhen WANG
Affiliations
  • Department of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang 261053, China
出版时间: 2025-04-25 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202412208
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目的

本研究旨在评估术前、术后及术前后均系统治疗3种治疗方案对老年人群直肠癌(RC)患者的的疗效,分析老年RC患者预后影响因素。

方法

本研究使用SEER数据库中2011—2015年间60岁及以上的4612例RC患者数据。采用XGBoost的重叠加权(OW)方法均衡治疗组间的协变量差异,并评估不同治疗方案对RC患者生存预后的影响。通过Kaplan-Meier方法绘制生存曲线,并进行log-rank检验,使用Cox回归分析评估影响RC患者生存期的独立危险因素。

结果

经过OW加权后,三组治疗方案在各协变量上均实现均衡。不同治疗组的生存率差异具有统计学意义(P<0.001)。术前系统治疗组的1年、3年和5年生存率分别为94.6%、82.2%和71.6%,术后系统治疗组为95.0%、79.0%和67.8%,术前后均系统治疗组为97.3%、85.5%和73.4%。多因素Cox回归分析结果显示,与术前系统治疗组相比,术后系统治疗组特异性HR=1.216(95% CI: 1.072~1.381)。与不发生肝转移的患者相比,发生肝转移的患者特异性死亡HR=1.719(95%CI: 1.253~2.358)。

结论

系统治疗的顺序对老年RC患者的生存预后具有显著影响。在控制年龄、性别等因素的影响后,3种治疗方式中术前系统治疗的生存预后更佳;肝转移可能是RC患者预后的独立影响因素。

XGBoost  /  重叠加权  /  直肠癌  /  系统治疗  /  影响因素
Objective

To evaluate the efficacy of three treatment modalities, preoperative, postoperative, and combined preoperative and postoperative systemic therapy, in elderly patients with rectal cancer (RC), and to analyze the prognostic factors for elderly RC patients.

Methods

Data from 4612 RC patients aged 60 and above were used, sourced from the SEER database between 2011 and 2015. The Overlap Weighting (OW) method based on XGBoost was employed to balance covariate differences between treatment groups and assess the impact of different treatment regimens on the survival prognosis of RC patients. Survival curves were plotted using the Kaplan-Meier method, and Log-rank tests were conducted. Cox regression analysis was utilized to evaluate independent risk factors affecting the survival of RC patients.

Results

After OW weighting, the three treatment groups achieved balance across all covariates. The survival rates among different treatment groups were statistically significant (P<0.001). The 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year survival rates were 94.6%, 82.2%, and 71.6% for the preoperative systemic therapy group, 95.0%, 79.0%, and 67.8% for the postoperative systemic therapy group, and 97.3%, 85.5%, and 73.4% for the combined preoperative and postoperative systemic therapy group, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that, compared to the preoperative systemic therapy group, the specific death hazard ratio for the postoperative systemic therapy group was 1.216(95% CI: 1.072-1.381). Patients with liver metastasis had a specific death hazard ratio of 1.719(95% CI: 1.253-2.358) compared to those without liver metastasis.

Conclusion

The sequence of systematic treatment has a significant impact on the survival prognosis of elderly RC patients. After controlling for factors such as age and gender, preoperative systemic treatment had a better survival prognosis among the three treatment methods; Liver metastasis may be an independent factor affecting the prognosis of RC patients.

XGBoost  /  Overlap weighting  /  Rectal cancer  /  Systemic treatment  /  Influence factor
丛显铸, 李爽, 葛佳瑜, 王爱民, 孔雨佳, 石福艳, 王素珍. 基于倾向性评分重叠加权法的老年直肠癌疗效评价及其预后影响因素分析. 现代预防医学, 2025 , 52 (8) : 1502 -1508 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202412208
Xian-zhu CONG, Shuang LI, Jia-yu GE, Ai-min WANG, Yu-jia KONG, Fu-yan SHI, Su-zhen WANG. Efficacy evaluation and prognostic factors analysis of elderly rectal cancer based on propensity score overlapping weighting method[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2025 , 52 (8) : 1502 -1508 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202412208
直肠癌(rectal cancer, RC)是结直肠癌(colorectal cancer, CRC)的重要亚型,约占CRC发病率的40%[1]。根据国际癌症研究机构2020年的数据,CRC发病率和死亡率在全球各类癌症中分别排名第三和第二[2]。在我国,老年人群中RC的发病率持续上升,显著增加了治疗的复杂性和挑战[3-5]。在RC患者的预后影响因素中,年龄、性别、肿瘤分期、手术方式、化疗方案、放疗和合并症等都被认为是重要因素[6-7]。在RC的治疗中,手术占据着举足轻重的核心地位[8-9],对于老年RC患者而言,鉴于他们术后恢复速度较慢且常伴有多种合并症等复杂状况,因此,在手术前后的治疗过程中,治疗手段的选择及其施行的先后顺序显得尤为重要[10]。因此,如何为老年RC患者制定科学合理的系统治疗成为临床研究的热点。本研究采用SEER数据库,基于XGBoost的重叠加权(overlap weighting, OW)方法,均衡多治疗组间协变量差异,减少极端权重影响[11-13],为临床评估RC患者病情和制定治疗方案提供参考。
从美国SEER肿瘤患者数据库中,选择2011—2015年间诊断RC的60岁及以上的患者,共计4 612例,其中术前系统治疗组2 204例,术后系统治疗组1 318例,术前后均系统治疗组1 090例。本研究收集的指标包括诊断时间、患者年龄、种族、婚姻状况、肿瘤大小、放疗情况、化疗情况、手术与系统治疗顺序、肝转移情况以及AJCC第七版TNM分期情况。
纳入标准:①原发部位为直肠;②初次确诊年份为2011—2015年;③患者年龄≥60岁;④进行过手术且接受系统治疗;⑤临床病理信息完整。排除标准:①手术治疗信息不明确;②未进行放疗;③未进行化疗;④无有效或完整的随访数据;⑤TNM分期不明确,病理资料不完整。
为解决老年RC患者三种系统治疗方案组间协变量不均衡的问题,本文采用广义倾向性得分的OW方法均衡协变量,实现事后随机化。重叠加权方法能够重点关注加权倾向性得分分布高度重叠的子人群,从而更精确地估计不同系统治疗方案的平均处理效应(Average Treatment Effect in the Overlap, ATO),获得更加稳健的因果推断结果[13-15]。XGBoost是一种由Chen和Guestrin在2016年提出高效的梯度提升决策树算法[16]。XGBoost能够捕捉数据中的非线性关系,处理特征间复杂的交互作用,并提升模型的泛化能力,使其在倾向性得分估计中更具优势[17-18]。在本研究中,将XGBoost用于估计老年RC患者接受不同系统治疗方案的倾向性得分。将系统治疗作为目标变量j,而与老年RC患者治疗与生存预后有关的协变量(性别、种族、年龄、婚姻情况、T分期、N分期、M分期、肝转移)作为预测变量进行训练。通过多分类决策树模型,XGBoost计算每个老年RC患者在不同治疗组中的倾向性得分,生成一个I×J的概率矩阵fij,即各组倾向性得分。基于这些倾向性得分,使用OW法对个体进行加权。
公式如下:
其中,fij样本xi在处理组j上的倾向性得分。M为树的数量,为第m棵决策树对处理组Tm(Xi)的权重,gij为第m棵决策树对样本i的预测值。gijhij分别是损失函数的一阶和二阶导数,Ω(fij)是正则化项。wij是样本i在处理组j下的权重。
协变量均衡性采用绝对标准化平均差值(absolute standardized mean difference, ASMD)进行评价[19]。在评价三种系统治疗方案的协变量均衡性时,评价标准是组间绝对标准化平均差值的最大值,即ASMDmax。当组间的ASMDmax小于0.1时,即表明在不同的系统治疗方案间达到了协变量的均衡分布。
针对三种系统治疗方案的生存结局处理效应估计,包括相对效应和绝对效应两部分。相对效应估计通过Kaplan-Meier方法绘制生存曲线,并使用log-rank检验比较各组之间的生存曲线差异,从而评估三种系统治疗方案的在老年RC患者中相对疗效。此外,为了进一步估计治疗效应的绝对影响,采用双稳健半参数Cox回归模型[20],该模型同时考虑了治疗方案、基线协变量(如年龄、肿瘤分期等)以及加权后的数据。该方法能够有效地控制潜在的混杂因素,从而准确估计不同系统治疗方案对RC患者生存预后的独立影响,计算出风险比(HR)及其95%置信区间(CI)。
在本研究中,采用软件R 4.4.1整理、清洗数据和统计分析。计数资料以频数(%)表示。计数资料比较不同治疗组间的差异采用χ2检验。采用“XGBoost”包,通过“xgboost()”函数构建模型,分别估计不同类别的PS;采用“PSweight”包中的“SumStat()”函数进行OW,以确保各组间协变量的平衡;采用“survival”包和“survminer”包进行生存分析,包括 Kaplan-Meier 生存曲线绘制、Log-rank 检验以及多因素 Cox 回归分析;采用“ggplot2”包绘制了加权标准化均差(ASMD)图和生存曲线图。所有统计检验均为双侧检验,显著性水平设定为α=0.05,确保了研究结果的科学性与可靠性。
本研究纳入4 612例老年RC患者,表1展示了三种治疗方式之间患者的年龄、种族、婚姻状态等8项基线协变量的分布差异及其统计学检验结果。在OW处理前,性别、种族在3组患者之间的分布差异无统计学意义(P>0.05),其他变量间的分布差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。经OW处理后,3组患者所有协变量上的分布差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05),表明基线协变量实现均衡。
图1所示进一步加权前后协变量的ASMDmax变化,在OW处理前,年龄、婚姻等6个协变量的组间ASMDmax值范围在0.1至0.5之间,表明这6个协变量在3组患者之间的分布存在较大的差异。在OW处理后,所有协变量的组间ASMDmax值均小于0.1,表明3组患者之间协变量的差异减小,分布实现均衡。
log-rank检验结果表明,加权前后的不同组患者的生存率差异均有统计学意义(P<0.001),见图2。加权前,术前系统治疗组、术后系统治疗组和术前后均系统治疗组的1年生存率分别为93.9%、92.4%和97.6%;3年生存率分别为81.4%、73.9%和85.8%;5年生存率分别为70.8%、62.8%和73.9%。加权后,术前系统治疗组的1年、3年和5年生存率分别为94.6%、82.2%和71.6%;术后系统治疗组的生存率分别为95.0%、79.0%和67.8%;术前后均系统治疗组分别为,97.3%、85.5%、73.4%,生存率变化相对较小,见表2
在校正性别、种族、年龄、婚姻状况、T分期等变量后,对老年RC患者死亡风险对比分析结果显示与不发生肝转移的患者相比,发生肝转移的患者特异性死亡风险比为1.719(95% CI: 1.253~2.358)。与术前系统治疗组相比,术后系统治疗组特异性死亡风险比为1.216(95% CI: 1.072~1.381);术前后均系统治疗组特异性死亡风险比为0.971(95% CI: 0.849~1.110),表3
多项研究表明[21-23],RC的系统治疗对患者预后至关重要,合理的系统治疗不仅能够显著延长生存时间,还能改善手术相关的治疗效果。术前系统治疗可以控制疾病进展、缩小肿瘤体积,增加肿瘤的可切除性,为手术创造更有利的条件[24]。术后系统治疗主要针对残留的微小病灶,降低复发风险[25]。老年患者由于其特殊的病理生理特征,在治疗方案的选择和效果上面临更多挑战。Badesha 等[26]的研究显示,不同年龄和肿瘤分期患者的治疗反应和预后存在差异,尤其在年龄和肿瘤进展程度分布不均衡的情况下。这种不均衡可能导致老年的患者预后优于年轻群体,从而在疗效评估中引入潜在偏差,影响研究结果的准确性和可比性,在以往的研究结果中存在相互矛盾[27]。为了解决这一问题,采用XGBoost计算倾向性得分,并进行OW,使各组之间实现协变量的平衡,将观察性研究转化为类随机化试验,提高了因果推断的精确性。
本研究在所有患者均接受系统治疗的背景下,OW加权后的log-rank检验结果显示,术前系统治疗组的5年生存率为71.6%,高于术后系统治疗组的5年生存率67.8%,与Khullar等[28]研究结果一致。
Cox回归分析中纳入了处理因素和协变量,并将OW权重纳入模型中,确保了结果的双稳健性,使 ATO 估计值与真实效应估计值保持一致。Cox回归分析结果显示,在社会人口学方面,得到了和既往研究相同的结论[12,29]。女性特异性死亡风险要低于男性,已婚患者的特异性死亡风险低于离异患者。黑人患者的特异性死亡风险比要高于白人患者。60岁以上人群,各年龄组,年龄越高特异性死亡风险也出现明显的增加。
与T1期患者相比,T3期和T4期患者的特异性死亡风险显著增加,风险比分别为1.669和2.808。这些结果与先前研究一致,表明肿瘤分期在预后评估中的关键作用[30]。尤其是T4期患者,因其肿瘤侵袭性更强,导致更高的死亡风险,这一发现强调了早期诊断和干预的重要性。 在淋巴结分期的细致划分中,相较于N0期患者,N1期与N2期患者的特异性死亡风险显著增加,具体表现为N1期患者的死亡风险比值为1.299,而N2期患者则进一步攀升至1.993。这一发现与既往的深入研究不谋而合,明确指出了淋巴结转移是直肠癌预后评估中的一项不利因素,其存在显著预示了患者生存率的下降[31]。此外,肝转移显著增加了患者的死亡风险,印证了肝脏作为肿瘤常见转移部位的不良预后影响[32]。相比术前系统治疗组,术后系统治疗组患者的特异性死亡风险显著增加,这可能与术前新辅助治疗手段的迅速发展和创新相关[33]。虽然术前后均系统治疗组的生存率也较高,但与术前治疗组相比无统计学意义,提示系统治疗在治疗顺序和时机上的重要性。
本研究存在一定的局限性:(1)受SEER数据库资料限制,本研究纳入的8个重要的协变量,但有一些重要的指标缺失,未被纳入研究。(2)SEER数据库中对于患者系统治疗的治疗方案选择和排序未做详细说明。首先,今后应在变量选择方面展开进一步研究,纳入更多相关的协变量对疾病因果进行推断。其次,应当进一步研究系统治疗的具体方案组合,探究放疗、化疗、免疫靶向治疗等多学科相结合的辅助治疗方案,为临床工作者的新辅助治疗手段的开发提供新的研究视野和更加准确的理论基础,制定更个性化的治疗方案,提高老年直肠癌患者的总体生存率。
综上所述,(1)相比较于术后系统治疗组,术前系统治疗组患者接受治疗后生存概率较高。(2)在校正年龄、种族、癌症分期等因素的影响后,3种系统治疗方式中术前系统治疗的生存预后更佳。 (3)肝转移可能是RC患者预后的独立影响因素。
  • 国家自然科学基金面上项目(81872719)
  • 国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(81803337)
  • 山东省科技厅自然科学基金项目(ZR2019MH034)
  • 山东省科技厅自然科学基金项目(ZR2023MH313)
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202412208
  • 接收时间:2024-12-12
  • 首发时间:2026-03-17
  • 出版时间:2025-04-25
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  • 收稿日期:2024-12-12
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国家自然科学基金面上项目(81872719)
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(81803337)
山东省科技厅自然科学基金项目(ZR2019MH034)
山东省科技厅自然科学基金项目(ZR2023MH313)
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    山东第二医科大学公共卫生学院卫生统计学教研室,潍坊 261053

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王素珍、石福艳、孔雨佳为共同通信作者。王素珍,E-mail:
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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

Family
属数
Number of
genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)

Genus
种数
Number of
species
占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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