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Article(id=1240730052267135283, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1240730050669113883, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202411097, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1730736000000, receivedDateStr=2024-11-05, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773742696110, onlineDateStr=2026-03-17, pubDate=1745510400000, pubDateStr=2025-04-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773742696110, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-17, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773742696110, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773742696110, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1240730050669113883, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2025', volume='52', issue='8', pageStart='1345', pageEnd='1536', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773742695728, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773742807836, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1240730520988995837, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1240730050669113883, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1240730520988995838, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1240730050669113883, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=1361, endPage=1365, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1240730052493627701, articleId=1240730052267135283, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Spatial-temporal characteristics of HIV / AIDS patients aged 50 years and above, Guizhou Province, 2018-2023, columnId=1228016567443718970, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Epidemiology and Statistical Methods Advances, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and changing trends of newly reported HIV / AIDS cases aged 50 years and over in Guizhou Province from 2018 to 2023, and to provide scientific basis for ≥50 years old AIDS prevention and control.

Methods

Using the database of the AIDS comprehensive prevention and control data information system, the newly reported cases aged 50 years and over from 2018 to 2023 were screened out, and their demographic characteristics were analyzed. Then use ArcGIS software for spatial autocorrelation analysis.

Results

From 2018 to 2023, the proportion of HIV/AIDS cases aged 50 and above in Guizhou Province increased from 46.91% in 2018 to 56.99% in 2023, and the proportion increased year by year(trend χ2=249.968, P<0.001),and the distribution of local areas was concentrated.The global Moran ’s I was between 0.336 3 and 0.395 0(P<0.001). It showed that there was a global spatial autocorrelation in 2018-2023. SatScan showed six clusters, among which Puding, Xixiu, Zhenning, Liuzhi, Zhijin and Guanling were the most likely to gather (RR=2.990, LLR=1 222.719), which was also highly consistent with the results of spatial autocorrelation analysis.

Conclusion

The newly-discovered HIV / AIDS patients aged 50 and above in Guizhou Province in recent years have spatial clustering, mainly concentrated in the central and western and southern regions of Guizhou Province. It is recommended to strengthen the comprehensive prevention and control of AIDS in areas with high incidence of epidemic, especially to carry out targeted preventive measures in time in areas with a trend of spread.

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目的

了解2018—2023年贵州省50岁及以上新报告HIV/AIDS患者（HIV/AIDS）的时空分布特征及其变化趋势，为艾滋病防控提供科学依据。

方法

使用艾滋病综合防治数据信息系统数据库，筛选出2018—2023年当年新报告的50岁及以上HIV/AIDS，采用ArcGIS软件进行空间自相关分析，利用时空扫描（SatScan）分析时空聚集性。

结果

贵州省2018—2023年50岁及以上HIV/AIDS病人占报告总数的比例由2018年的46.91%升高至2023年的56.99%，构成比逐年上升（趋势χ2=249.968，P<0.001）且局部地区分布集中；2018—2023年的全局Moran I在0.336 3~0.395 0之间（均有P<0.001），说明2018—2023年存在全局空间自相关；使用SatScan时空扫描发现6个聚集区，其中普定县、西秀区、镇宁县、六枝特区、织金县、关岭县聚集的可能性最大（RR=2.990,LLR=1 222.719），这也与空间自相关分析的结果高度吻合。

结论

贵州省近年来新发现的50岁及以上HIV/AIDS患者存在空间聚集性，主要集中在贵州省的中西部及南部地区。建议针对疫情高发地区加强艾滋病综合防治，特别是对出现扩散趋势的地区及时开展有针对性的预防措施。

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陈洋，E-mail:
, copyrightStatement=本刊刊出的所有文章不代表中华预防医学会和本刊编委会的观点，除非特别声明。, copyrightOwner=中华预防医学会和四川大学华西公共卫生学院, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=ohhERmgHancQSBGpRhxoSA==, magXml=EnEoFV4lt7Fypeh/FizjZQ==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=+lb0Bfoy4yoEIP/upSWWCw==, pdfFileSize=1277146, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=+pj9uXpfZGPBbw0KV7uncQ==, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=sAsfgPhe20uHeOhwqF0btA==, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=

王茂思（1996—），女，硕士，主管技师，研究方向：艾滋病防治

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王茂思（1996—），女，硕士，主管技师，研究方向：艾滋病防治

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王茂思（1996—），女，硕士，主管技师，研究方向：艾滋病防治

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articleId=1240730052267135283, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2023, volume=44, issue=11, pageStart=1669, pageEnd=1672, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[1], rfOrder=0, authorNames=汤后林, 金怡晨, 吕繁, journalName=中华流行病学杂志, refType=null, unstructuredReference=汤后林，金怡晨，吕繁.我国老年人群艾滋病防控现状与挑战[J].中华流行病学杂志，2023, 44(11): 1669-1672., articleTitle=我国老年人群艾滋病防控现状与挑战, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241070735238689346, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2023, volume=44, issue=11, pageStart=1669, pageEnd=1672, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[1], rfOrder=1, authorNames=Tang HL, Jin YC, Lv F, journalName=Chinese Journal of Epidemiology, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Tang HL, Jin YC, Lv F. 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(In Chinese), articleTitle=Characteristics of HIV/AIDS patients aged ≥50 years in Anshun, from 2010 to 2019, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241070740317991775, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2016, volume=37, issue=2, pageStart=218, pageEnd=221, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[19], rfOrder=36, authorNames=金霞, 熊燃, 王丽艳, journalName=中华流行病学杂志, refType=null, unstructuredReference=金霞，熊燃，王丽艳，等.2010—2014年我国HIV感染病例的晚发现隋况分析[J].中华流行病学杂志，2016, 37(2): 218-221., articleTitle=2010—2014年我国HIV感染病例的晚发现隋况分析, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241070740481569642, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2016, volume=37, issue=2, pageStart=218, pageEnd=221, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[19], rfOrder=37, authorNames=Jin X, Xiong R, Wang LY, journalName=Chinese Journal of Epidemiology, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Jin X, Xiong R, Wang LY, et al. 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(In Chinese), articleTitle=Analysis on the ‘late diagnosis’ (LD) phenomena among newly identified HIV/AIDS cases in China, 2010-2014, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241070740557067118, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2022, volume=28, issue=6, pageStart=529, pageEnd=532, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[20], rfOrder=38, authorNames=袁智, 韦薇, 范家诚, journalName=应用预防医学, refType=null, unstructuredReference=袁智，韦薇，范家诚，等.2010—2021年贵州省少数民族艾滋病流行特征分析[J].应用预防医学，2022, 28(6): 529-532., articleTitle=2010—2021年贵州省少数民族艾滋病流行特征分析, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241070740661924722, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2022, volume=28, issue=6, pageStart=529, pageEnd=532, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[20], rfOrder=39, authorNames=Yuan Z, Wei W, Fan JC, journalName=Applied Preventive Medicine, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Yuan Z, Wei W, Fan JC, et al. 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(In Chinese), articleTitle=Analysis of the epidemic characteristics of AIDS among ethnic minorities in Guizhou Province from 2010 to 2021, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241070740829696890, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2020, volume=26, issue=1, pageStart=40, pageEnd=42, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[21], rfOrder=40, authorNames=范家诚, 姚永明, 郑敏, journalName=中国艾滋病性病, refType=null, unstructuredReference=范家诚，姚永明，郑敏，等.2011—2016年贵州省少数民族艾滋病疫情流行特征分析[J].中国艾滋病性病，2020, 26(1): 40-42., articleTitle=2011—2016年贵州省少数民族艾滋病疫情流行特征分析, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241070740938748799, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2020, volume=26, issue=1, pageStart=40, pageEnd=42, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[21], rfOrder=41, authorNames=Fan JC, Yao YM, Zheng M, journalName=Chinese Journal of AIDS & STD, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Fan JC, Yao YM, Zheng M, et al. 2011-2016 epidemiological characteristice of AIDS epidemic among ethnic minorities in Guizhou Province[J]. Chinese Journal of AIDS & STD, 2020, 26(1): 40-42. (In Chinese), articleTitle=2011-2016 epidemiological characteristice of AIDS epidemic among ethnic minorities in Guizhou Province, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241070741064577926, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2020, volume=54, issue=11, pageStart=1227, pageEnd=1231, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[22], rfOrder=42, authorNames=单多, 姚永明, 郑敏, journalName=中华预防医学杂志, refType=null, unstructuredReference=单多，姚永明，郑敏，等.黔东南苗族侗族自治州两社区老年男性的性需求及HIV危险性行为的相关因素[J].中华预防医学杂志，2020, 54(11): 1227-1231., articleTitle=黔东南苗族侗族自治州两社区老年男性的性需求及HIV危险性行为的相关因素, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241070741156852617, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2020, volume=54, issue=11, pageStart=1227, pageEnd=1231, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[22], rfOrder=43, authorNames=Shan D, Yao YM, Zheng M, journalName=Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Shan D, Yao YM, Zheng M, et al. A survey on sexual needs and factors of HIV risky sexual behaviors among elderly men at different ages in two communities of Qiandongnan Miao and Dong autonomous prefecture[J]. Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine, 2020, 54(11): 1227-1231. (In Chinese), articleTitle=A survey on sexual needs and factors of HIV risky sexual behaviors among elderly men at different ages in two communities of Qiandongnan Miao and Dong autonomous prefecture, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241070741253321615, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2018, volume=24, issue=3, pageStart=307, pageEnd=308, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[23], rfOrder=44, authorNames=田应娟, journalName=中国艾滋病性病, refType=null, unstructuredReference=田应娟.黔南州2015—2016年新报告50岁及以上男性HIV/AIDS病人的传播途径及危险行为[J].中国艾滋病性病，2018, 24(3): 307-308., articleTitle=黔南州2015—2016年新报告50岁及以上男性HIV/AIDS病人的传播途径及危险行为, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1241070741362373525, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2018, volume=24, issue=3, pageStart=307, pageEnd=308, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[23], rfOrder=45, authorNames=Tian YJ, journalName=Chinese Journal of AIDS & STD, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Tian YJ. The transmission routes and risk behaviors of newly reported male HIV/AIDS patients aged 50 and above in Qiannan Prefecture from 2015 to 2016 were analyzed[J]. Chinese Journal of AIDS & STD,2018, 24(3): 307-308. (In Chinese), articleTitle=The transmission routes and risk behaviors of newly reported male HIV/AIDS patients aged 50 and above in Qiannan Prefecture from 2015 to 2016 were analyzed, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1241070734907339301, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, awardId=gzwkj2024-501, language=CN, fundingSource=贵州省卫生健康委科学技术基金项目(gzwkj2024-501), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1241070728846569637, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241070728854958247, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, companyId=1241070728846569637, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Guizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guiyang, Guizhou 550004, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1241070728871735463, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, companyId=1241070728846569637, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=贵州省疾病预防控制中心，贵州　贵阳　550004)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1241070733288337815, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, language=EN, label=Fig.1, caption=Distribution of newly reported HIV / AIDS cases aged ≥ 50 years old in Guizhou Province from 2018 to 2023 [Maps Review No:Qian S(2023)009], figureFileSmall=HNZXPZnkMWjvQt5pUGC3TQ==, figureFileBig=xCigo8QgNvh6hkv864fdQw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241070733376418208, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, language=CN, label=图1, caption=2018—2023年贵州省≥50岁HIV/AIDS新报告病例分布图[审图号：黔S（2023）009号], figureFileSmall=HNZXPZnkMWjvQt5pUGC3TQ==, figureFileBig=xCigo8QgNvh6hkv864fdQw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241070733514830257, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, language=EN, label=Fig.2, caption=Results of spatial clustering analysis of HIV/AIDS patients aged ≥50 years old in Guizhou Province from 2018 to 2023 [Maps Review No:Qian S(2023)009], figureFileSmall=hr/UR9XzI24BD1OyaQGaGw==, figureFileBig=duSRn0DkmisAaiJxAZdsgQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241070733632270777, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, language=CN, label=图2, caption=2018—2023年贵州省≥50岁HIV/AIDS病人的空间聚集性分析结果[审图号：黔S（2023）009号], figureFileSmall=hr/UR9XzI24BD1OyaQGaGw==, figureFileBig=duSRn0DkmisAaiJxAZdsgQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241070733871346112, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, language=EN, label=Fig.3, caption=Spatial-temporal scan aggregation map of HIV / AIDS patients aged ≥ 50 years old in Guizhou Province from 2018 to 2023 [Maps Review No:Qian S(2023)009], figureFileSmall=T+cyESnetLnGCJxiPvK8MQ==, figureFileBig=yU93gUNC6ri7mnARRsTGIw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241070733997175243, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, language=CN, label=图3, caption=2018—2023年贵州省≥50岁HIV/AIDS病人时空扫描聚集图[审图号：黔S（2023）009号], figureFileSmall=T+cyESnetLnGCJxiPvK8MQ==, figureFileBig=yU93gUNC6ri7mnARRsTGIw==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1241070734118810068, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Report of HIV / AIDS patients aged ≥ 50 years old in Guizhou Province from 2018 to 2023

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份病人报告数≥50岁病人数构成比（%）
20189 5604 48546.91
20199 4344 73650.20
20208 5144 41951.90
20219 3515 14054.97
20228 1544 53355.59
20238 1624 65256.99
合计53 17527 96552.59
χ2值249.968
P值<0.001
), ArticleFig(id=1241070734261416416, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

2018—2023年贵州省≥50岁HIV/AIDS病人报告情况

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份病人报告数≥50岁病人数构成比（%）
20189 5604 48546.91
20199 4344 73650.20
20208 5144 41951.90
20219 3515 14054.97
20228 1544 53355.59
20238 1624 65256.99
合计53 17527 96552.59
χ2值249.968
P值<0.001
), ArticleFig(id=1241070734362079723, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Global spatial autocorrelation analysis of HIV / AIDS infection rate in HIV / AIDS patients ≥ 50 years old in Guizhou Province from 2018 to 2023

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份Moran I值Z值P值
20180.363 85.677 80.001
20190.375 66.165 80.001
20200.336 35.404 20.001
20210.380 36.014 90.001
20220.395 06.289 50.001
20230.338 45.552 00.001
), ArticleFig(id=1241070734492103160, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

2018—2023年贵州省≥50岁HIV/AIDS病人感染率全局空间自相关分析

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
年份Moran I值Z值P值
20180.363 85.677 80.001
20190.375 66.165 80.001
20200.336 35.404 20.001
20210.380 36.014 90.001
20220.395 06.289 50.001
20230.338 45.552 00.001
), ArticleFig(id=1241070734617932292, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Spatio-temporal scanning analysis of HIV / AIDS patients ≥ 50 years old in Guizhou Province from 2018 to 2023

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
聚集区半径（km)聚集时间（年）病例数期望数RR值LLR值P值聚集区域
143.772018—20203 0271 091.9402.9901 222.719<0.001普定、西秀、镇宁、六枝、织金、关岭
262.282018—2020758269.2402.870300.168<0.001独山、三都、荔波
325.972018—2020478194.7902.480147.328<0.001天柱、锦屏
444.472019—20211 5791 046.0001.48097.888<0.001红花岗、汇川、播州、绥阳
502018—2020253120.4302.11055.548<0.001赤水市
6020188220.5703.99052.028<0.001万山区
), ArticleFig(id=1241070734714401293, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240730052267135283, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

2018—2023年贵州省≥50岁HIV/AIDS病人时空扫描分析

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
聚集区半径（km)聚集时间（年）病例数期望数RR值LLR值P值聚集区域
143.772018—20203 0271 091.9402.9901 222.719<0.001普定、西秀、镇宁、六枝、织金、关岭
262.282018—2020758269.2402.870300.168<0.001独山、三都、荔波
325.972018—2020478194.7902.480147.328<0.001天柱、锦屏
444.472019—20211 5791 046.0001.48097.888<0.001红花岗、汇川、播州、绥阳
502018—2020253120.4302.11055.548<0.001赤水市
6020188220.5703.99052.028<0.001万山区
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2018—2023年贵州省50岁及以上HIV/AIDS病人的时空特征分析
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王茂思 , 姚永明 , 黄璐 , 宋晓甜 , 陈洋
现代预防医学 | 流行病与统计方法 2025,52(8): 1361-1365
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现代预防医学 | 流行病与统计方法 2025, 52(8): 1361-1365
2018—2023年贵州省50岁及以上HIV/AIDS病人的时空特征分析
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王茂思, 姚永明, 黄璐, 宋晓甜, 陈洋
作者信息
  • 贵州省疾病预防控制中心，贵州　贵阳　550004

    • 王茂思（1996—），女，硕士，主管技师，研究方向：艾滋病防治

通讯作者:

陈洋，E-mail:
Spatial-temporal characteristics of HIV / AIDS patients aged 50 years and above, Guizhou Province, 2018-2023
Mao-si WANG, Yong-ming YAO, Lu HUANG, Xiao-tian SONG, Yang CHEN
Affiliations
  • Guizhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guiyang, Guizhou 550004, China
出版时间: 2025-04-25 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202411097
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摘要
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目的

了解2018—2023年贵州省50岁及以上新报告HIV/AIDS患者（HIV/AIDS）的时空分布特征及其变化趋势，为艾滋病防控提供科学依据。

方法

使用艾滋病综合防治数据信息系统数据库，筛选出2018—2023年当年新报告的50岁及以上HIV/AIDS，采用ArcGIS软件进行空间自相关分析，利用时空扫描（SatScan）分析时空聚集性。

结果

贵州省2018—2023年50岁及以上HIV/AIDS病人占报告总数的比例由2018年的46.91%升高至2023年的56.99%，构成比逐年上升（趋势χ2=249.968，P<0.001）且局部地区分布集中；2018—2023年的全局Moran I在0.336 3~0.395 0之间（均有P<0.001），说明2018—2023年存在全局空间自相关；使用SatScan时空扫描发现6个聚集区，其中普定县、西秀区、镇宁县、六枝特区、织金县、关岭县聚集的可能性最大（RR=2.990,LLR=1 222.719），这也与空间自相关分析的结果高度吻合。

结论

贵州省近年来新发现的50岁及以上HIV/AIDS患者存在空间聚集性，主要集中在贵州省的中西部及南部地区。建议针对疫情高发地区加强艾滋病综合防治，特别是对出现扩散趋势的地区及时开展有针对性的预防措施。

艾滋病  /  时空分析  /  空间自相关  /  50岁及以上
Objective

To analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and changing trends of newly reported HIV / AIDS cases aged 50 years and over in Guizhou Province from 2018 to 2023, and to provide scientific basis for ≥50 years old AIDS prevention and control.

Methods

Using the database of the AIDS comprehensive prevention and control data information system, the newly reported cases aged 50 years and over from 2018 to 2023 were screened out, and their demographic characteristics were analyzed. Then use ArcGIS software for spatial autocorrelation analysis.

Results

From 2018 to 2023, the proportion of HIV/AIDS cases aged 50 and above in Guizhou Province increased from 46.91% in 2018 to 56.99% in 2023, and the proportion increased year by year(trend χ2=249.968, P<0.001),and the distribution of local areas was concentrated.The global Moran ’s I was between 0.336 3 and 0.395 0(P<0.001). It showed that there was a global spatial autocorrelation in 2018-2023. SatScan showed six clusters, among which Puding, Xixiu, Zhenning, Liuzhi, Zhijin and Guanling were the most likely to gather (RR=2.990, LLR=1 222.719), which was also highly consistent with the results of spatial autocorrelation analysis.

Conclusion

The newly-discovered HIV / AIDS patients aged 50 and above in Guizhou Province in recent years have spatial clustering, mainly concentrated in the central and western and southern regions of Guizhou Province. It is recommended to strengthen the comprehensive prevention and control of AIDS in areas with high incidence of epidemic, especially to carry out targeted preventive measures in time in areas with a trend of spread.

AIDS  /  Time-space analysis  /  Spatial autocorrelation  /  50 years and above
王茂思, 姚永明, 黄璐, 宋晓甜, 陈洋. 2018—2023年贵州省50岁及以上HIV/AIDS病人的时空特征分析. 现代预防医学, 2025 , 52 (8) : 1361 -1365 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202411097
Mao-si WANG, Yong-ming YAO, Lu HUANG, Xiao-tian SONG, Yang CHEN. Spatial-temporal characteristics of HIV / AIDS patients aged 50 years and above, Guizhou Province, 2018-2023[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2025 , 52 (8) : 1361 -1365 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202411097
正文
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近年来，我国艾滋病疫情形势依然严峻[1-2]，特别是50岁及以上老年人群艾滋病传播风险持续存在。由于艾滋病疫情的发生和发展与人口、社会、地理、时间等因素密切相关[3-4]，因此从空间格局和时空演化特征探索50岁及以上老年人群艾滋病疫情，发现其分布和流行规律，对防控艾滋病工作具有重要意义。本研究旨在对贵州省50岁及以上艾滋病病毒（HIV）感染者和艾滋病（AIDS）病人（简称HIV/AIDS病人）疫情进行时空特征分析，探索其在时间和空间上的变化趋势，为防控艾滋病提供科学依据。
1　对象与方法
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1.1　对象
“全国艾滋病综合防治数据信息管理系统”中，根据贵州省2018—2023年新报告的HIV/AIDS患者（截至2023年12月31日），按县（市、区）筛选出50岁及以上的病例作为研究对象。贵州省地图来源于贵州省疾病预防控制中心，且底图未经修改，通过行政区划代码将病例数据与地理信息相关联。本研究经贵州省疾病预防控制中心伦理委员会批准（编号：W2023-22）。
1.2　方法
1.2.1　全局空间自相关分析
采用全局Moran I指数在县（区）水平分析50岁及以上HIV/AIDS病例是否存在空间聚集性以及判断空间数据是高值聚集还是低值聚集[5]。Moran I指数取值范围为[-1,1]。当全局Moran I值>0时，表示该空间事务的属性取值具有正相关，整体上呈聚集性分布；当全局Moran I值<0时，表示该空间事务的属性取值具有负相关，整体上呈离散性分布；当全局Moran I值接近0时，表示该空间事务的属性取值不具有相关性，即空间随机分布。
1.2.2　局部空间自相关分析[5]
局部空间自相关分析（local indicators of spatial association,LISA）用来探究局部空间的相关。LISA分析可以得到4种聚集类型，分别为高-高聚集，低-低聚集、高-低聚集、低-高聚集。高-高聚集，低-低聚集表示HIV/AIDS数与周围地区类似，高-低聚集、低-高聚集表示HIV/AIDS数高/低于周围地区[6]。
1.2.3　时空扫描分析
时空扫描的基本原理是以空间动态窗口扫描统计为基础[7]，假定HIV/AIDS发病人数满足Poisson分布，通过圆柱形扫描窗口（底部对应地理位置，高对应时间）进行动态扫描，扫描窗口的大小和位置在地理空间上不断的变化，然后对每一个扫描窗口，根据实际属性值（如实际病人数）和人口数可计算出预期属性值（理论病例数），根据实际病人数和理论病人数计算对数似然比（log likelihood ratio,LLR）。当P<0.05时，认为该扫描窗口相对危险度（relative risk，RR）差异有统计学意义，即该区域是时空聚集热点[8]。LLR最大的窗口为一类聚集性区域，其他有统计学意义的为二类聚集区。LLR的值大小能够反映聚集的强度，值越大，表明该区域内病例聚集的可能性越大[9]。
1.2.4　统计分析
采用SPSS 23.0软件进行统计学分析，不同年份间的构成比分析使用趋势χ2检验。
2　结果
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2.1　基本情况
2018—2023年贵州省共报告50岁及以上人群HIV/AIDS病人27 965例，其中病例报告数占当年的报告总数比例由2018年的46.91%升高至2023年的56.99%，通过趋势分析发现50岁及以上人群HIV/AIDS病人构成比呈逐年上升（趋势χ2=249.968，P<0.001），详见表1。全省每个县均有HIV/AIDS病人报告，其中西部地区报告病例多于东部地区，累计报告HIV/AIDS病人最多的6个县（区）分别是安顺市西秀区占4.98%（1 392/27 965）、安顺市普定县占4.77%（1 334/27 965）、六盘水市六枝特区占3.64%（1 019/27 965）、毕节市织金县占3.30%（922/27 965）以及遵义市红花岗区占3.26%（911/27 965）、遵义市播州区占3.11%（869/27 965）。见图1。
2.2　全局空间自相关分析
对2018—2023年贵州省报告的50岁及以上HIV/AIDS病人的报告感染率进行全局自相关分析，结果显示各年度的50岁及以上HIV/AIDS病例均呈现全局自相关（Moran I>0且Z值>1. 96），P值均<0.001。见表2。
2.3　局部空间自相关分析
在全局自相关分析的基础上进行局部空间自相关分析，运用ArcGIS软件将聚集性区域可视化。通过聚类和异常值的分析分别找出了各个年度的高-高、高-低、低-高、低-低区域。结果显示，2018—2023年贵州省50岁及以上HIV/AIDS病例报告热点区域主要位于中西部和南部，其中中西部“高-高”聚集区域以六盘水市的六枝特区、毕节市的织金县、安顺市的普定县、镇宁县、关岭县、西秀区为主，而黔西南州的贞丰县和望谟县仅在2018年成为过“高-高”聚集区域，此后消失；安顺市的平坝区自2019年成为“高-高”聚集区后，持续存在直到2023年成为“低-高”聚集区；2018年安顺市的紫云县为“低-高”聚集区域，2019年后消失，2021—2022年再度出现，2023年又消失。南部地区“高-高”聚集区域2018年仅有独山县，2019年由独山县蔓延至都匀市，2020年进一步蔓延至荔波县，但在2021年未探测到聚集情况。2022—2023年独山县、都匀市及荔波县再度成为“高-高”聚集区域。详见图2。
2.4　时空扫描分析
按照时空扫描结果LLR值发现1个一类时空聚集区域，其他LLR值由于P<0.01有统计学差异，都属于二类时空聚集区域。其中一类时空聚集区域，包括安顺市的普定县、西秀区、镇宁县、关岭县，六盘水市的六枝特区和毕节市的织金县；与局部空间自相关分析结果中的“高-高”聚集区，呈现出了高度的一致性。二类聚集区共5个，分别是以独山县为中心，半径62.28 km的3个县区，时间跨度为2018—2020；以天柱县为中心，半径25.97 km的2个县区，时间跨度为2018—2020；以红花岗区为中心，半径44.47 km的4个县，时间跨度为2019—2021；2018—2020年的赤水市；2018年的万山区，详见表3和图3。
3　讨论
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本研究显示，2018—2023年贵州省50岁及以上HIV/AIDS占比逐年增加，2019年已超过50%，提示贵州省AIDS“老龄化”问题突出，这也与我国甚至全球范围内的HIV流行趋势类似[10]。究其原因可能与50岁及以上人群的性需求客观存在相关，该类人群由于对感染HIV/性病的预防风险意识较低，发生性行为时使用安全套的频率较低，因此不但自己感染疾病风险高，也更易传播给配偶[11-12]，从而导致了该年龄段感染HIV的人数较多。一方面随着HIV检测网络的逐步健全，各级医疗卫生机构都具备了HIV筛查能力，结合2019年基本公共卫生服务中的老年人体检项目增加了对服务对象的免费HIV检测，使得更多感染者被发现。另一方面，本地医疗机构全面落实医务人员主动提供艾滋病检测咨询（provider-initiated HIV testing and counseling,PITC）,凡是住院病人一律按照“知情不拒绝”的原则进行HIV检测，而50岁以上作为就医的主要人群，使得其更容易被发现，同时这也与这部分人群的发现来源主要为医疗机构就诊相符合[13]。通过以上一系列举措，更多的感染者得以被发现。
近6年来贵州省50岁及以上的HIV/AIDS病例呈空间聚集性分布，这与江苏省[14]、甘肃省[8]的结论相似。热点区域均属于疫情较为严重的县区，主要集中在中西部的5~6个县区及南部的2~3个县，其中发现的“高-高”聚集区域中，都包括安顺市普定县、镇宁布依族苗族自治县、西秀区、关岭布依族苗族自治县、六盘水市六枝特区、毕节市织金县，这与既往全人群中的研究结果相同[15]，究其原因可能是（1）研究表明2015—2022年我国报告≥50岁商业异性性行为HIV/AIDS患者主要分布在中西南地区，占比达80%以上，其中第一聚集区中心点坐标就在贵州省六盘水市[16]；（2）安顺市以往的研究[17-18]表明其晚发现比例较高，特别是在50岁及以上老年人群中尤为明显，高于国内同类研究的结果[19]，病例的晚发现不仅会增加疾病负担，还会造成潜在的传播风险。这些因素的长期存在，可能导致了贵州省“高-高”聚集区出现并逐渐向周边扩散；（3）以往的普定县、镇宁县、六枝特区等地作为贵州省优先拥有铁路的地区，发达的交通为艾滋病的感染和传播创造了条件。而二类聚集区中的独山县、三都县、荔波县隶属黔南布依族苗族自治州，天柱县、锦屏县隶属黔东南苗族侗族自治州，都属于少数民族聚居地。这与袁智等[20]、范家诚等[21]研究中的贵州省2010—2021年间报告的少数民族HIV/AIDS病例逐年增加，报告病例数最多的民族与其聚居地分布一致的观点相符。既往研究显示，性接触是黔南州中老年艾滋病主要的感染途径，且少数民族地区中老年男性仍存在较高的性需求，高危性行为发生率高[22]，这很可能与当地少数民族地区人们性交往和交友形式更加开放和简约有关[23]。因此针对II类聚集区域要重点做好50岁以上，特别是少数民族老年人安全性教育，防止不安全的性行为发生。本研究局限性一方面是只在县区层面进行了分析，未能从更精细的空间尺度（乡镇、街道等）出发进而得出更真实的研究结论。另一方面由于研究涉及的数据为历年报告数，与各地艾滋病防控策略、医疗卫生机构发现HIV/AIDS患者能力有关，数据质量存在地区差异。
综上，贵州省50岁及以上HIV/AIDS比例呈现增长趋势，老年人群应当成为AIDS的重点防控人群。一方面应加强艾滋病健康宣传教育，特别是针对低文化程度老年男性，创新手段丰富渠道，开发出针对性强、可接受度高的宣传方式，提高艾滋病防治知识知晓率；另一方面是减少性行为导致的AIDS传播，提高安全套使用率，降低新发感染。
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  • 贵州省卫生健康委科学技术基金项目(gzwkj2024-501)
文献
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2025年第52卷第8期
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202411097
  • 接收时间：2024-11-05
  • 首发时间：2026-03-17
  • 出版时间：2025-04-25
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  • 收稿日期：2024-11-05
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贵州省卫生健康委科学技术基金项目(gzwkj2024-501)
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    贵州省疾病预防控制中心，贵州　贵阳　550004

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
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total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
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