Article(id=1240722575152697803, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1240722566957027366, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202505446, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1748188800000, receivedDateStr=2025-05-26, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773740913427, onlineDateStr=2026-03-17, pubDate=1760025600000, pubDateStr=2025-10-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773740913427, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-17, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773740913427, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773740913427, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1240722566957027366, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2025', volume='52', issue='19', pageStart='3457', pageEnd='3648', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=1, specialIssue=0, createTime=1773740911472, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773740981732, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1240722861736906836, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1240722566957027366, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1240722861736906837, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1240722566957027366, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=3559, endPage=3567, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1240722575676985838, articleId=1240722575152697803, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Comparative analysis of multimorbidity progression trajectories between middle-aged and elderly agricultural and non-agricultural workers, columnId=1228016572892119056, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Primary Health Services, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=

Objective To analyze the differences in chronic disease multimorbidity trajectories and influencing factors between middle-aged and elderly agricultural and non-agricultural production operators. Methods Data from five waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) from 2011 to 2020 were used. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) was applied to fit multimorbidity trajectories for both groups, and multivariable logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify factors influencing the trajectory groups. Results A total of 9 937 participants were included, with 5 010 in the agricultural group and 4 927 in the non-agricultural group. In the agricultural group, the multimorbidity trajectories were classified into three patterns: no-multimorbidity (19.22%, 963 cases), new-onset multimorbidity (56.45%,2 828 cases), and progressive multimorbidity (24.33%, 1 219 cases). In the non-agricultural group, four patterns were identified: no-multimorbidity (18.06%, 890 cases), new-onset multimorbidity (41.10%, 2 025 cases), progressive multimorbidity (33.65%, 1 658 cases), and high-growth multimorbidity (7.18%, 354 cases). Increasing age, obesity, sleep duration ≤6 hours, and poor psychological status significantly increased the risk of multimorbidity in both groups (P<0.05). Among agricultural group, overweight (OR=1.37, 95% CI: 1.14-1.65; OR=2.49, 95% CI: 2.01-3.08) and obesity(OR=2.21, 95%CI: 1.59-3.06; OR=5.58, 95% CI: 3.93-7.92) significantly increased the risks of multimorbidity. In the non-agricultural group, higher education levels reduced the risk of new-onset multimorbidity(OR=0.75, 95% CI: 0.60-0.95), and moderate physical activity decreased the risk of high-growth multimorbidity(OR=0.68, 95% CI: 0.52-0.90). Smoking cessation was significantly associated with increased risks of multimorbidity (OR=1.55, 95% CI: 1.04-2.32; OR=2.37, 95% CI: 1.57-3.57; OR=4.02, 95%CI: 2.31-7.00). Conclusion In agricultural populations, the new-onset multimorbidity type is dominant, driven by obesity and insufficient sleep. In non-agricultural populations, the high-growth multimorbidity type is associated with poor psychological status and health deterioration after smoking cessation. It is necessary to strengthen weight and sleep management for agricultural populations and focus on mental health as well as post-cessation monitoring for non-agricultural populations to reduce the risk of multimorbidity.

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目的 分析中老年农业与非农业生产经营人员慢性病共病轨迹差异及影响因素。方法 基于中国健康与养老追踪调查（China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey，CHARLS）2011—2020年五波数据，采用组基轨迹模型拟合两类人群共病发展轨迹，logistic回归分析不同轨迹组的影响因素。结果 纳入研究对象9 937例，农业生产经营人员5 010例，非农业生产经营人员4 927例。农业人员无共病型963例（19.22%）、新增共病型2 828例（56.45%）、共病进展型1 219例（24.33%）；非农业人员无共病型890例（18.06%）、新增共病型2 025例（41.10%）、共病进展型1 658例（33.65%）、高共病增长型354例（7.18%）。年龄增长、肥胖、晚间睡眠≤6 h、心理状态差显著增高两类人群共病风险（P<0.05）。农业生产经营人员超重（OR=1.37，95%CI：1.14～1.65；OR=2.49，95%CI：2.01～3.08）、肥胖（OR=2.21，95%CI：1.59～3.06；OR=5.58，95%CI：3.93～7.92）显著增加共病风险。非农业人员高教育程度降低新增共病风险（OR=0.75，95%CI：0.60～0.95），中等体力活动降低高共病增长风险（OR=0.68，95%CI：0.52～0.90），已戒烟增加共病增长风险（OR= 1.55，95%CI：1.04～2.32；OR=2.37，95%CI：1.57～3.57；OR=4.02，95%CI：2.31～7.00）。结论 农业人群以新增共病型为主，受肥胖和睡眠不足驱动；非农人群高共病增长型与心理状态差及戒烟后健康恶化相关。需针对农业人群加强体重和睡眠管理，非农人群侧重心理健康及戒烟后监测，以降低共病风险。

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刘明月（1999—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：流行病与卫生统计学

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刘明月（1999—），女，硕士在读，研究方向：流行病与卫生统计学

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Comparison of different multimorbidity trajectory groups among agricultural production operators（$\bar{x}±s$）， n（%）， M（P₂₅，P₇₅）］

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=

变量	例数	农业生产经营人员共病发展轨迹分组			统计量	P值
		无共病型(n=963)	新增共病型(n=2 828)	共病进展型(n=1 219)
年龄（岁）	56.92±7.61	55.74±7.77	56.90±7.59	57.90±7.39	21.935a	<0.001
性别
男	2 503	499(19.94)	1 436(57.37)	568(22.69)	7.605	0.022
女	2 507	464(18.51)	1 392(55.52)	651(25.97)
教育程度
小学及以下	3 690	659(17.86)	2 082(56.42)	949(25.72)	25.844	<0.001
初中	984	220(22.36)	563(57.22)	201(20.43)
高中及以上	336	84(25.00)	183(54.46)	69(20.54)
婚姻状况
未婚	37	8(21.62)	18(48.65)	11(29.73)	5.783	0.448
已婚	4 640	904(19.48)	2 613(56.31)	1 123(24.20)
分居或离异	30	3(10.00)	17(56.67)	10(33.33)
丧偶	303	48(15.84)	180(59.41)	75(24.75)
家庭年收入（元）		1 311(0,12 130)	2 400(0,15 267)	2 570(0,13 380)	2.212b	0.110
吸烟
从不吸烟	2 903	554(19.08)	1 615(55.63)	734(25.28)	41.280	<0.001
已戒烟	370	51(13.78)	189(51.08)	130(35.14)
正在吸烟	1 737	358(20.61)	1 024(58.95)	355(20.44)
饮酒
喝酒,每月超过1次	1 436	303(21.10)	828(57.66)	305(21.24)	12.438	0.014
喝酒,每月不超1次	409	74(18.09)	234(57.21)	101(24.69)
从不饮酒	3 165	586(18.52)	1 766(55.80)	813(25.69)
饮食频率
每天4顿	91	17(18.68)	58(63.74)	16(17.58)	2.725	0.605
每天3顿	4 252	817(19.21)	2 398(56.40)	1 037(24.39)
每天2顿及以下	667	129(19.34)	372(55.77)	166(24.89)
剧烈活动
不超10 min	2 533	475(18.75)	1 403(55.39)	655(25.86)	6.515	0.038
超过10 min	2 477	488(19.70)	1 425(57.53)	564(22.77)
中体力活动
不超10 min	1 957	398(20.34)	1 068(54.57)	491(25.09)	4.836	0.089
超过10 min	3 053	565(18.51)	1 760(57.65)	728(23.85)
低体力活动
不超10 min	884	189(21.38)	496(56.11)	199(22.51)	4.085	0.130
超过10 min	4 126	774(18.76)	2 332(56.52)	1 020(24.72)
体质指数
体重过低	381	67(17.59)	220(57.74)	94(24.67)	129.44	<0.001
正常体重	2 877	640(22.25)	1 679(58.36)	558(19.40)
超重	1 279	207(16.18)	685(53.56)	387(30.26)
肥胖	473	49(10.36)	244(51.59)	180(38.05)
晚睡时长（h）
6～8	2 013	448(22.26)	1 145(56.88)	420(20.86)	65.297	<0.001
≤6	2 578	413(16.02)	1 437(55.74)	728(28.24)
>8	419	102(24.34)	246(58.71)	71(16.95)
午睡时长（min）
30～60	1 011	196(19.39)	561(55.49)	254(25.12)	1.107	0.893
≤30	3 306	640(19.36)	1 874(56.68)	792(23.96)
>60	693	127(18.33)	393(56.71)	173(24.96)
社会活动
不参与	3 019	567(18.78)	1 729(57.27)	723(23.95)	2.138	0.343
参与	1 991	396(19.89)	1 099(55.20)	496(24.91)
心理状态
好	285	53(18.60)	178(62.46)	54(18.95)	185.37	<0.001
一般	2 780	658(23.67)	1 597(57.45)	525(18.88)
较差	1 785	242(13.56)	976(54.68)	567(31.76)
差	160	10(6.25)	77(48.13)	73(45.63)

), ArticleFig(id=1240933509741736759, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722575152697803, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

农业生产经营人员不同共病发展轨迹分组比较（$\bar{x}±s$），n（%），M（P₂₅，P₇₅）］

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=

变量	例数	农业生产经营人员共病发展轨迹分组			统计量	P值
		无共病型(n=963)	新增共病型(n=2 828)	共病进展型(n=1 219)
年龄（岁）	56.92±7.61	55.74±7.77	56.90±7.59	57.90±7.39	21.935a	<0.001
性别
男	2 503	499(19.94)	1 436(57.37)	568(22.69)	7.605	0.022
女	2 507	464(18.51)	1 392(55.52)	651(25.97)
教育程度
小学及以下	3 690	659(17.86)	2 082(56.42)	949(25.72)	25.844	<0.001
初中	984	220(22.36)	563(57.22)	201(20.43)
高中及以上	336	84(25.00)	183(54.46)	69(20.54)
婚姻状况
未婚	37	8(21.62)	18(48.65)	11(29.73)	5.783	0.448
已婚	4 640	904(19.48)	2 613(56.31)	1 123(24.20)
分居或离异	30	3(10.00)	17(56.67)	10(33.33)
丧偶	303	48(15.84)	180(59.41)	75(24.75)
家庭年收入（元）		1 311(0,12 130)	2 400(0,15 267)	2 570(0,13 380)	2.212b	0.110
吸烟
从不吸烟	2 903	554(19.08)	1 615(55.63)	734(25.28)	41.280	<0.001
已戒烟	370	51(13.78)	189(51.08)	130(35.14)
正在吸烟	1 737	358(20.61)	1 024(58.95)	355(20.44)
饮酒
喝酒,每月超过1次	1 436	303(21.10)	828(57.66)	305(21.24)	12.438	0.014
喝酒,每月不超1次	409	74(18.09)	234(57.21)	101(24.69)
从不饮酒	3 165	586(18.52)	1 766(55.80)	813(25.69)
饮食频率
每天4顿	91	17(18.68)	58(63.74)	16(17.58)	2.725	0.605
每天3顿	4 252	817(19.21)	2 398(56.40)	1 037(24.39)
每天2顿及以下	667	129(19.34)	372(55.77)	166(24.89)
剧烈活动
不超10 min	2 533	475(18.75)	1 403(55.39)	655(25.86)	6.515	0.038
超过10 min	2 477	488(19.70)	1 425(57.53)	564(22.77)
中体力活动
不超10 min	1 957	398(20.34)	1 068(54.57)	491(25.09)	4.836	0.089
超过10 min	3 053	565(18.51)	1 760(57.65)	728(23.85)
低体力活动
不超10 min	884	189(21.38)	496(56.11)	199(22.51)	4.085	0.130
超过10 min	4 126	774(18.76)	2 332(56.52)	1 020(24.72)
体质指数
体重过低	381	67(17.59)	220(57.74)	94(24.67)	129.44	<0.001
正常体重	2 877	640(22.25)	1 679(58.36)	558(19.40)
超重	1 279	207(16.18)	685(53.56)	387(30.26)
肥胖	473	49(10.36)	244(51.59)	180(38.05)
晚睡时长（h）
6～8	2 013	448(22.26)	1 145(56.88)	420(20.86)	65.297	<0.001
≤6	2 578	413(16.02)	1 437(55.74)	728(28.24)
>8	419	102(24.34)	246(58.71)	71(16.95)
午睡时长（min）
30～60	1 011	196(19.39)	561(55.49)	254(25.12)	1.107	0.893
≤30	3 306	640(19.36)	1 874(56.68)	792(23.96)
>60	693	127(18.33)	393(56.71)	173(24.96)
社会活动
不参与	3 019	567(18.78)	1 729(57.27)	723(23.95)	2.138	0.343
参与	1 991	396(19.89)	1 099(55.20)	496(24.91)
心理状态
好	285	53(18.60)	178(62.46)	54(18.95)	185.37	<0.001
一般	2 780	658(23.67)	1 597(57.45)	525(18.88)
较差	1 785	242(13.56)	976(54.68)	567(31.76)
差	160	10(6.25)	77(48.13)	73(45.63)

), ArticleFig(id=1240933509859177275, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722575152697803, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Comparison of different multimorbidity trajectory groups among non-agricultural production operators［（$\bar{x}±s$）， n（%）， M（P₂₅，P₇₅）］

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=

变量	例数	非农业生产经营人员共病发展轨迹分组				统计量	P值
		无共病型 (n=890)	新增共病型 (n=2 025)	共病进展型 (n=1 658)	高共病增长型 (n=354)
年龄（岁）	58.62±9.23	56.24±9.07	58.25±9.40	59.97±8.95	60.38±8.50	37.698a	<0.001
性别
男	2 133	456(21.38)	909(42.62)	642(30.10)	126(5.91)	47.636	<0.001
女	2 794	434(15.53)	1 116(39.94)	1 016(36.36)	228(8.16)
教育程度
小学及以下	3 028	468(15.46)	1 249(41.25)	1 080(35.67)	231(7.63)	43.434	<0.001
初中	1 127	246(21.83)	475(42.15)	332(29.46)	74(6.57)
高中及以上	772	176(22.80)	301(38.99)	246(31.87)	49(6.35)
婚姻状况
未婚	27	7(25.93)	8(29.63)	9(33.33)	3(11.11)	25.254	0.003
已婚	4 324	789(18.25)	1 812(41.91)	1 422(32.89)	301(6.96)
分居或离异	62	18(29.03)	19(30.65)	22(35.48)	3(4.84)
丧偶	514	76(14.79)	186(36.19)	205(39.88)	47(9.14)
家庭年收入（元）		0(0,14 847)	82(0,19 140)	1 200(0,24 660)	2 985(0,24 450)	1.493b	0.214
吸烟
从不吸烟	3 204	542(16.92)	1 315(41.04)	1 119(34.93)	228(7.12)	55.484	<0.001
已戒烟	360	39(10.83)	134(37.22)	149(41.39)	38(10.56)
正在吸烟	1 363	309(22.67)	576(42.26)	390(28.61)	88(6.46)
饮酒
喝酒,每月超过1次	1 079	248(22.98)	474(43.93)	303(28.08)	54(5.00)	65.804	<0.001
喝酒,每月不超1次	368	80(21.74)	170(46.20)	102(27.72)	16(4.35)
从不饮酒	3 480	562(16.15)	1 381(39.68)	1 253(36.01)	284(8.16)
饮食
每天4顿	60	9(15.00)	20(33.33)	23(38.33)	8(13.33)	6.100	0.412
每天3顿	4 271	779(18.24)	1 765(41.33)	1 423(33.32)	304(7.12)
每天2顿及以下	596	102(17.11)	240(40.27)	212(35.57)	42(7.05)
剧烈活动（min）
不超10	3 892	648(16.65)	1 588(40.80)	1 359(34.92)	297(7.63)	34.878	<0.001
超过10	1 035	242(23.38)	437(42.22)	299(28.89)	57(5.51)
中体力活动（min）
不超10	2 569	435(16.93)	1 028(40.02)	882(34.33)	224(8.72)	23.669	<0.001
超过10	2 358	455(19.30)	997(42.28)	776(32.91)	130(5.51)
低体力活动（min）
不超10	1 022	177(17.32)	424(41.49)	347(33.95)	74(7.24)	0.483	0.923
超过10	3 905	713(18.26)	1 601(41.00)	1 311(33.57)	280(7.17)
体重指数
体重过低	409	74(18.09)	190(46.45)	121(29.58)	24(5.87)	178.43	<0.001
正常体重	2 202	473(21.48)	965(43.82)	670(30.43)	94(4.27)
超重	1 621	274(16.90)	648(39.98)	567(34.98)	132(8.14)
肥胖	695	69(9.93)	222(31.94)	300(43.17)	104(14.96)
晚睡时长（h）
6～8	1 901	391(20.57)	819(43.08)	587(30.88)	104(5.47)	53.004	<0.001
≤6	2 665	426(15.98)	1 045(39.21)	957(35.91)	237(8.89)
>8	361	73(20.22)	161(44.60)	114(31.58)	13(3.60)
午睡时长（min）
30～60	1 014	154(15.19)	425(41.91)	350(34.52)	85(8.38)	10.320	0.112
≤30	3 306	632(19.12)	1 344(40.65)	1 103(33.36)	227(6.87)
>60	607	104(17.13)	256(42.17)	205(33.77)	42(6.92)
社会活动
不参与	2 588	478(18.47)	1 036(40.03)	873(33.73)	201(7.77)	4.592	0.204
参与	2 339	412(17.61)	989(42.28)	785(33.56)	153(6.54)
心理状态
好	450	86(19.11)	209(46.44)	126(28.00)	29(6.44)	244.92	<0.001
一般	2 753	612(22.23)	1 214(44.10)	803(29.17)	124(4.50)
较差	1 600	183(11.44)	562(35.13)	678(42.38)	177(11.06)
差	124	9(7.26)	40(32.26)	51(41.13)	24(19.35)

), ArticleFig(id=1240933509985006400, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722575152697803, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

非农业生产经营人员不同共病发展轨迹分组比较［（$\bar{x}±s$），n（%），M（P₂₅，P₇₅）］

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=

变量	例数	非农业生产经营人员共病发展轨迹分组				统计量	P值
		无共病型 (n=890)	新增共病型 (n=2 025)	共病进展型 (n=1 658)	高共病增长型 (n=354)
年龄（岁）	58.62±9.23	56.24±9.07	58.25±9.40	59.97±8.95	60.38±8.50	37.698a	<0.001
性别
男	2 133	456(21.38)	909(42.62)	642(30.10)	126(5.91)	47.636	<0.001
女	2 794	434(15.53)	1 116(39.94)	1 016(36.36)	228(8.16)
教育程度
小学及以下	3 028	468(15.46)	1 249(41.25)	1 080(35.67)	231(7.63)	43.434	<0.001
初中	1 127	246(21.83)	475(42.15)	332(29.46)	74(6.57)
高中及以上	772	176(22.80)	301(38.99)	246(31.87)	49(6.35)
婚姻状况
未婚	27	7(25.93)	8(29.63)	9(33.33)	3(11.11)	25.254	0.003
已婚	4 324	789(18.25)	1 812(41.91)	1 422(32.89)	301(6.96)
分居或离异	62	18(29.03)	19(30.65)	22(35.48)	3(4.84)
丧偶	514	76(14.79)	186(36.19)	205(39.88)	47(9.14)
家庭年收入（元）		0(0,14 847)	82(0,19 140)	1 200(0,24 660)	2 985(0,24 450)	1.493b	0.214
吸烟
从不吸烟	3 204	542(16.92)	1 315(41.04)	1 119(34.93)	228(7.12)	55.484	<0.001
已戒烟	360	39(10.83)	134(37.22)	149(41.39)	38(10.56)
正在吸烟	1 363	309(22.67)	576(42.26)	390(28.61)	88(6.46)
饮酒
喝酒,每月超过1次	1 079	248(22.98)	474(43.93)	303(28.08)	54(5.00)	65.804	<0.001
喝酒,每月不超1次	368	80(21.74)	170(46.20)	102(27.72)	16(4.35)
从不饮酒	3 480	562(16.15)	1 381(39.68)	1 253(36.01)	284(8.16)
饮食
每天4顿	60	9(15.00)	20(33.33)	23(38.33)	8(13.33)	6.100	0.412
每天3顿	4 271	779(18.24)	1 765(41.33)	1 423(33.32)	304(7.12)
每天2顿及以下	596	102(17.11)	240(40.27)	212(35.57)	42(7.05)
剧烈活动（min）
不超10	3 892	648(16.65)	1 588(40.80)	1 359(34.92)	297(7.63)	34.878	<0.001
超过10	1 035	242(23.38)	437(42.22)	299(28.89)	57(5.51)
中体力活动（min）
不超10	2 569	435(16.93)	1 028(40.02)	882(34.33)	224(8.72)	23.669	<0.001
超过10	2 358	455(19.30)	997(42.28)	776(32.91)	130(5.51)
低体力活动（min）
不超10	1 022	177(17.32)	424(41.49)	347(33.95)	74(7.24)	0.483	0.923
超过10	3 905	713(18.26)	1 601(41.00)	1 311(33.57)	280(7.17)
体重指数
体重过低	409	74(18.09)	190(46.45)	121(29.58)	24(5.87)	178.43	<0.001
正常体重	2 202	473(21.48)	965(43.82)	670(30.43)	94(4.27)
超重	1 621	274(16.90)	648(39.98)	567(34.98)	132(8.14)
肥胖	695	69(9.93)	222(31.94)	300(43.17)	104(14.96)
晚睡时长（h）
6～8	1 901	391(20.57)	819(43.08)	587(30.88)	104(5.47)	53.004	<0.001
≤6	2 665	426(15.98)	1 045(39.21)	957(35.91)	237(8.89)
>8	361	73(20.22)	161(44.60)	114(31.58)	13(3.60)
午睡时长（min）
30～60	1 014	154(15.19)	425(41.91)	350(34.52)	85(8.38)	10.320	0.112
≤30	3 306	632(19.12)	1 344(40.65)	1 103(33.36)	227(6.87)
>60	607	104(17.13)	256(42.17)	205(33.77)	42(6.92)
社会活动
不参与	2 588	478(18.47)	1 036(40.03)	873(33.73)	201(7.77)	4.592	0.204
参与	2 339	412(17.61)	989(42.28)	785(33.56)	153(6.54)
心理状态
好	450	86(19.11)	209(46.44)	126(28.00)	29(6.44)	244.92	<0.001
一般	2 753	612(22.23)	1 214(44.10)	803(29.17)	124(4.50)
较差	1 600	183(11.44)	562(35.13)	678(42.38)	177(11.06)
差	124	9(7.26)	40(32.26)	51(41.13)	24(19.35)

), ArticleFig(id=1240933510094058311, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722575152697803, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Applicability of the optimal trajectory model

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=

轨迹组	轨迹形状	Aveep%	组内例数	Pj	πj	OCC	Ej
农业生产经营人员
无共病型	1阶	93.25	963	19.22	18.88	59.4	0.817
新增共病型	3阶	91.12	2 828	56.45	54.66	8.5
共病进展型	3阶	92.07	1 219	24.33	26.46	32.3
非农业生产经营人员
无共病型	3阶	92.02	890	18.06	16.96	56.4	0.785
新增共病型	3阶	89.66	2 025	41.10	42.03	12.0
共病进展型	3阶	83.31	1 658	33.65	33.07	10.1
高共病增长型	3阶	84.39	354	7.18	7.94	62.7

), ArticleFig(id=1240933510215693131, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722575152697803, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

最佳轨迹模型适用性

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=

轨迹组	轨迹形状	Aveep%	组内例数	Pj	πj	OCC	Ej
农业生产经营人员
无共病型	1阶	93.25	963	19.22	18.88	59.4	0.817
新增共病型	3阶	91.12	2 828	56.45	54.66	8.5
共病进展型	3阶	92.07	1 219	24.33	26.46	32.3
非农业生产经营人员
无共病型	3阶	92.02	890	18.06	16.96	56.4	0.785
新增共病型	3阶	89.66	2 025	41.10	42.03	12.0
共病进展型	3阶	83.31	1 658	33.65	33.07	10.1
高共病增长型	3阶	84.39	354	7.18	7.94	62.7

), ArticleFig(id=1240933510345716565, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722575152697803, language=EN, label=Table 4, caption=

Logistic regression analysis variable assignment

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=

变量	赋值
性别	男=1，女=1
教育程度	小学及以下=1，初中=2，高中及以上=3
婚姻状况	未婚=1，已婚=2，分居或离异=3，丧偶=4
吸烟	从不吸烟=0，已戒烟=1，正在吸烟=2
饮酒	喝酒，每月超过1次=1，喝酒，每月不超1次=2，从不饮酒=3
饮食频率	每天4顿=1，每天3顿=2，每天2顿及以下=3
剧烈活动	不超过10 min=0，超过10 min=1
中体力活动	不超过10 min=0，超过10 min=1
低体力活动	不超过10 min=0，超过10 min=1
体质指数	体重过低=1，正常体重=2，超重=3，肥胖=4
晚睡时长（h）	6～8=1，≤6=2，>8=3
午睡时长（min）	30～60=1，≤30=2，>6 0=3
社会活动	不参与=0，参与=1
心理状态	好=1，一般=2，较差=3，差=4
共病发展轨迹	无共病型=1，新增共病型=2，共病进展型=3，高共病增长型=4

), ArticleFig(id=1240933510429602651, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722575152697803, language=CN, label=表4, caption=

Logistic回归分析变量赋值

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=

变量	赋值
性别	男=1，女=1
教育程度	小学及以下=1，初中=2，高中及以上=3
婚姻状况	未婚=1，已婚=2，分居或离异=3，丧偶=4
吸烟	从不吸烟=0，已戒烟=1，正在吸烟=2
饮酒	喝酒，每月超过1次=1，喝酒，每月不超1次=2，从不饮酒=3
饮食频率	每天4顿=1，每天3顿=2，每天2顿及以下=3
剧烈活动	不超过10 min=0，超过10 min=1
中体力活动	不超过10 min=0，超过10 min=1
低体力活动	不超过10 min=0，超过10 min=1
体质指数	体重过低=1，正常体重=2，超重=3，肥胖=4
晚睡时长（h）	6～8=1，≤6=2，>8=3
午睡时长（min）	30～60=1，≤30=2，>6 0=3
社会活动	不参与=0，参与=1
心理状态	好=1，一般=2，较差=3，差=4
共病发展轨迹	无共病型=1，新增共病型=2，共病进展型=3，高共病增长型=4

), ArticleFig(id=1240933510530265950, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722575152697803, language=EN, label=Table 5, caption=

Logistic regression analysis of different multimorbidity trajectory groups among agricultural and non-agricultural production operators

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=

变量	农业生产经营人员				非农业生产经营人员
	新增共病型vs.无共病型		共病进展型vs.无共病型		新增共病型vs.无共病型		共病进展型vs.无共病型		高共病增长型vs.无共病型
	OR(95%CI)	P值	OR(95%CI)	P值	OR(95%CI)	P值	OR(95%CI)	P值	OR(95%CI)	P值
年龄	1.021(1.010～1.033)	<0.001	1.042(1.029～1.056)	<0.001	1.024(1.014～1.035)	<0.001	1.046(1.035～1.058)	<0.001	1.054(1.037～1.072)	<0.001
性别（ref：男）
女	0.948(0.753～1.193)	0.646	0.860(0.655～1.129)	0.278	1.083(0.855～1.372)	0.506	1.195(0.929～1.537)	0.166	1.473(0.996～2.178)	0.052
教育程度（ref：小学及以下）
初中	0.900(0.741～1.093)	0.286	0.804(0.632～1.023)	0.076	0.841(0.687～1.028)	0.091	0.803(0.645～0.998)	0.048	0.915(0.652～1.284)	0.608
高中及以上	0.783(0.588～1.044)	0.096	0.748(0.521～1.074)	0.116	0.750(0.595～0.945)	0.015	0.901(0.704～1.154)	0.410	1.016(0.684～1.510)	0.936
婚姻状况 （ref：已婚）
未婚	—	—	—	—	0.446(0.158～1.259)	0.127	0.656(0.230～1.875)	0.432	0.991(0.228～4.318)	0.991
分居或离异					0.494(0.256～0.955)	0.036	0.772(0.396～1.503)	0.446	0.520(0.143～1.882)	0.319
丧偶	—	—	—	—	0.730(0.539～0.990)	0.043	0.783(0.575～1.067)	0.122	0.761(0.492～1.179)	0.221
吸烟（ref：从不吸烟）
已戒烟	1.289(0.899～1.849)	0.167	1.931(1.295～2.879)	0.001	1.549(1.037～2.315)	0.033	2.367(1.571～3.566)	<0.001	4.024(2.314～6.998)	<0.001
正在吸烟	1.070(0.858～1.333)	0.550	0.960(0.736～1.252)	0.764	0.892(0.709～1.123)	0.333	0.952(0.742～1.221)	0.699	1.518(1.030～2.236)	0.035
饮酒（ref：从不饮酒）
喝酒,每月超过1次	0.892(0.738～1.079)	0.239	0.765(0.608～0.962)	0.022	0.962(0.774～1.197)	0.731	0.762(0.601～0.966)	0.025	0.590(0.400～0.870)	0.008
喝酒,每月不超1次	1.062(0.796～1.418)	0.682	1.055(0.750～1.483)	0.758	0.961(0.715～1.292)	0.792	0.685(0.493～0.952)	0.024	0.504(0.281～0.904)	0.021
剧烈活动（ref：不超10 min）
超过10 min	1.031(0.887～1.198)	0.691	0.935(0.781～1.119)	0.462	0.803(0.661～0.974)	0.026	0.733(0.593～0.906)	0.004	0.769(0.541～1.094)	0.144
中体力活动（ref：不超10 min）
超过10 min	—	—	—	—	1.029(0.871～1.215)	0.738	1.015(0.850～1.211)	0.873	0.683(0.518～0.900)	0.007
体重指数（ref：正常体重）
体重过低	1.161(0.867～1.555)	0.317	1.408(0.996～1.991)	0.053	1.109(0.823～1.494)	0.498	0.911(0.656～1.265)	0.577	1.120(0.657～1.910)	0.677
超重	1.368(1.138～1.646)	<0.001	2.487(2.008～3.081)	<0.001	1.192(0.993～1.432)	0.060	1.601(1.317～1.946)	<0.001	2.895(2.106～3.980)	<0.001
肥胖	2.205(1.591～3.055)	<0.001	5.577(3.928～7.919)	<0.001	1.626(1.209～2.188)	0.001	3.440(2.553～4.635)	<0.001	9.509(6.388～14.154)	<0.001
晚睡时长（ref：6～8h）
≤6 h	1.234(1.052～1.447)	0.010	1.582(1.307～1.914)	<0.001	1.044(0.877～1.243)	0.627	1.255(1.042～1.512)	0.016	1.651(1.235～2.207)	<0.001
>8 h	0.899(0.694～1.165)	0.423	0.684(0.485～0.964)	0.030	0.958(0.705～1.303)	0.786	0.914(0.654～1.277)	0.597	0.604(0.316～1.153)	0.126
心理状态（ref：好）
一般	0.752(0.542～1.044)	0.089	0.814(0.540～1.229)	0.328	0.754(0.566～1.005)	0.054	0.755(0.550～1.035)	0.081	0.510(0.311～0.836)	0.008
较差	1.236(0.877～1.741)	0.227	2.379(1.561～3.624)	<0.001	1.152(0.842～1.576)	0.376	2.106(1.505～2.946)	<0.001	2.436(1.485～3.995)	<0.001
差	2.284(1.098～4.749)	0.027	6.870(3.156～14.955)	<0.001	1.586(0.732～3.435)	0.242	3.044(1.405～6.591)	0.005	6.396(2.595～15.764)	<0.001

), ArticleFig(id=1240933510626734948, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722575152697803, language=CN, label=表5, caption=

农业经营人员和非农业生产经营人员不同共病发展轨迹的logistic回归

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=

变量	农业生产经营人员				非农业生产经营人员
	新增共病型vs.无共病型		共病进展型vs.无共病型		新增共病型vs.无共病型		共病进展型vs.无共病型		高共病增长型vs.无共病型
	OR(95%CI)	P值	OR(95%CI)	P值	OR(95%CI)	P值	OR(95%CI)	P值	OR(95%CI)	P值
年龄	1.021(1.010～1.033)	<0.001	1.042(1.029～1.056)	<0.001	1.024(1.014～1.035)	<0.001	1.046(1.035～1.058)	<0.001	1.054(1.037～1.072)	<0.001
性别（ref：男）
女	0.948(0.753～1.193)	0.646	0.860(0.655～1.129)	0.278	1.083(0.855～1.372)	0.506	1.195(0.929～1.537)	0.166	1.473(0.996～2.178)	0.052
教育程度（ref：小学及以下）
初中	0.900(0.741～1.093)	0.286	0.804(0.632～1.023)	0.076	0.841(0.687～1.028)	0.091	0.803(0.645～0.998)	0.048	0.915(0.652～1.284)	0.608
高中及以上	0.783(0.588～1.044)	0.096	0.748(0.521～1.074)	0.116	0.750(0.595～0.945)	0.015	0.901(0.704～1.154)	0.410	1.016(0.684～1.510)	0.936
婚姻状况 （ref：已婚）
未婚	—	—	—	—	0.446(0.158～1.259)	0.127	0.656(0.230～1.875)	0.432	0.991(0.228～4.318)	0.991
分居或离异					0.494(0.256～0.955)	0.036	0.772(0.396～1.503)	0.446	0.520(0.143～1.882)	0.319
丧偶	—	—	—	—	0.730(0.539～0.990)	0.043	0.783(0.575～1.067)	0.122	0.761(0.492～1.179)	0.221
吸烟（ref：从不吸烟）
已戒烟	1.289(0.899～1.849)	0.167	1.931(1.295～2.879)	0.001	1.549(1.037～2.315)	0.033	2.367(1.571～3.566)	<0.001	4.024(2.314～6.998)	<0.001
正在吸烟	1.070(0.858～1.333)	0.550	0.960(0.736～1.252)	0.764	0.892(0.709～1.123)	0.333	0.952(0.742～1.221)	0.699	1.518(1.030～2.236)	0.035
饮酒（ref：从不饮酒）
喝酒,每月超过1次	0.892(0.738～1.079)	0.239	0.765(0.608～0.962)	0.022	0.962(0.774～1.197)	0.731	0.762(0.601～0.966)	0.025	0.590(0.400～0.870)	0.008
喝酒,每月不超1次	1.062(0.796～1.418)	0.682	1.055(0.750～1.483)	0.758	0.961(0.715～1.292)	0.792	0.685(0.493～0.952)	0.024	0.504(0.281～0.904)	0.021
剧烈活动（ref：不超10 min）
超过10 min	1.031(0.887～1.198)	0.691	0.935(0.781～1.119)	0.462	0.803(0.661～0.974)	0.026	0.733(0.593～0.906)	0.004	0.769(0.541～1.094)	0.144
中体力活动（ref：不超10 min）
超过10 min	—	—	—	—	1.029(0.871～1.215)	0.738	1.015(0.850～1.211)	0.873	0.683(0.518～0.900)	0.007
体重指数（ref：正常体重）
体重过低	1.161(0.867～1.555)	0.317	1.408(0.996～1.991)	0.053	1.109(0.823～1.494)	0.498	0.911(0.656～1.265)	0.577	1.120(0.657～1.910)	0.677
超重	1.368(1.138～1.646)	<0.001	2.487(2.008～3.081)	<0.001	1.192(0.993～1.432)	0.060	1.601(1.317～1.946)	<0.001	2.895(2.106～3.980)	<0.001
肥胖	2.205(1.591～3.055)	<0.001	5.577(3.928～7.919)	<0.001	1.626(1.209～2.188)	0.001	3.440(2.553～4.635)	<0.001	9.509(6.388～14.154)	<0.001
晚睡时长（ref：6～8h）
≤6 h	1.234(1.052～1.447)	0.010	1.582(1.307～1.914)	<0.001	1.044(0.877～1.243)	0.627	1.255(1.042～1.512)	0.016	1.651(1.235～2.207)	<0.001
>8 h	0.899(0.694～1.165)	0.423	0.684(0.485～0.964)	0.030	0.958(0.705～1.303)	0.786	0.914(0.654～1.277)	0.597	0.604(0.316～1.153)	0.126
心理状态（ref：好）
一般	0.752(0.542～1.044)	0.089	0.814(0.540～1.229)	0.328	0.754(0.566～1.005)	0.054	0.755(0.550～1.035)	0.081	0.510(0.311～0.836)	0.008
较差	1.236(0.877～1.741)	0.227	2.379(1.561～3.624)	<0.001	1.152(0.842～1.576)	0.376	2.106(1.505～2.946)	<0.001	2.436(1.485～3.995)	<0.001
差	2.284(1.098～4.749)	0.027	6.870(3.156～14.955)	<0.001	1.586(0.732～3.435)	0.242	3.044(1.405～6.591)	0.005	6.396(2.595～15.764)	<0.001

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