Article(id=1240722571180691617, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1240722566957027366, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202504461, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1745596800000, receivedDateStr=2025-04-26, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773740912480, onlineDateStr=2026-03-17, pubDate=1760025600000, pubDateStr=2025-10-10, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773740912480, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-17, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773740912480, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773740912480, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1240722566957027366, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2025', volume='52', issue='19', pageStart='3457', pageEnd='3648', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=1, specialIssue=0, createTime=1773740911472, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773740981732, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1240722861736906836, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1240722566957027366, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1240722861736906837, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1240722566957027366, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=3471, endPage=3477, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1240722571457515705, articleId=1240722571180691617, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Construction and validation of a death risk prediction model for Klebsiella pneumoniae infection patients, columnId=1240413921954295836, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Epidemiology and Statistical Methods, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective To establish a prediction model to assess the risk of death in patients with Klebsiella pneumoniae (Kp) infection, and to provide a reference for the development of targeted prevention and control strategies for nosocomial infections. Methods Patients with Klebsiella pneumoniae(Kp) infection at the Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou Medical University from January 2020 to December 2022 were used as the training dataset. LASSO-logistic regression was applied to identify independent risk factors for death in Kp-infected patients, and a mortality risk nomogram was constructed. Patients with Kp infection from January 2023 to December 2023 were used as the validation dataset. Model discrimination, accuracy, and clinical utility were comprehensively evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), the calibration curve, and the decision analysis curve. Results A total of 1 972 Kp-infected patients were included in the training dataset, of which 234 Kp-infected patients died with a mortality rate of 11.87%. A total of 1 148 Kp-infected patients were included in the validation dataset, of which 126 Kp-infected patients died with a mortality rate of 10.98%. The results of LASSO-logistic regression modeling showed that patients aged >70 years, carbapenem resistance, mechanical ventilation, indwelling urinary catheter, diabetes mellitus, hematologic infections, white blood cell count >10×109/L and hemoglobin <115 g/L were all associated factors for death in patients with Kp infection (OR=24.6, 95% CI: 16.56-39.38; OR=2.44, 95% CI: 1.70-3.52; OR=4.97, 95% CI: 3.08-8.21; OR=2.99, 95% CI: 1.75-5.19; OR=18.24, 95% CI: 9.27-38.12; OR=2.75, 95% CI: 1.69-4.49; OR=4.18, 95% CI: 2.88-6.09; OR=2.65, 95% CI: 1.79-3.93). The areas under the ROC curve of the training dataset and validation dataset were 0.900 (95% CI: 0.876-0.924) and 0.843 (95% CI: 0.812-0.874), respectively. The calibration curve was close to the baseline curve, and the decision analysis curve was close to the upper right corner. Conclusion By analyzing the factors related to the death of Kp-infected patients, we constructed a nomogram prediction model of the risk of death of Kp-infected patients, which has good accuracy, discrimination, and clinical utility, and according to which targeted nosocomial infection prevention and control measures can be implemented.
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目的 建立预测模型评估肺炎克雷伯菌(Klebsiella pneumoniae,Kp)感染患者死亡风险,为制定院内感染针对性防控策略提供参考。方法 选取2020年1月-2022年12月贵州医科大学附属医院的Kp感染患者为训练数据集,采用LASSO-logistic回归分析探索引起Kp感染患者死亡的独立危险因素,绘制Kp感染患者死亡风险列线图。选取2023年1月-2023年12月该院Kp感染患者为验证数据集,通过受试者工作特征曲线(receiver operating characteristic curve,ROC)及曲线下面积、校准曲线和决策分析曲线对模型的区分度、准确度和临床实用性进行综合评估。结果 训练数据集共纳入1 972例Kp感染患者,其中234例Kp感染患者死亡,死亡率为11.87%;验证数据集共纳入1 148例Kp感染患者,其中126例Kp感染患者死亡,死亡率为10.98%。LASSO-logistic回归模型结果显示患者年龄>70岁、碳青霉烯类药物耐药、机械通气、留置尿管、糖尿病、血液系统感染、白细胞计数>10×109/L和血红蛋白<115 g/L均是Kp感染患者死亡的相关因素(OR=24.6、2.44、4.97、2.99、18.24、2.75、4.18、2.65, 95%CI:16.56~39.38、1.70~3.52、3.08~8.21、1.75~5.19、9.27~38.12、1.69~4.49、2.88~6.09、1.79~3.93),训练数据集和验证数据集ROC曲线下面积分别为0.900(95%CI: 0.876~0.924)和0.843(95%CI:0.812~0.874),校准曲线靠近基准曲线,决策分析曲线靠近右上角。结论 通过分析Kp感染患者死亡的相关因素,构建Kp感染患者死亡风险列线图预测模型,该模型的准确度、区分度和临床实用性良好,可据此模型实施有针对性的院内感染防控措施。
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本刊刊出的所有文章不代表中华预防医学会和本刊编委会的观点,除非特别声明。, copyrightOwner=中华预防医学会和四川大学华西公共卫生学院, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=bkajcLnU1i7mA8xxq0Mrgg==, magXml=qj6e6cGJB/hPmeGfx4PvOg==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=/wzn9u2dV+T2LInoPNu11A==, pdfFileSize=994106, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=O0JyhBGfRDv7kHcqxG22mg==, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=j1rTSyCaVljoQ/qBxNSnDQ==, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=
陈敏(1991—),女,硕士,主管技师,研究方向:医院感染管理
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21: 924556-924563., articleTitle=Tigecycline-Induced severe hypoglycemia in a Non-Diabetic individual: a case report and brief review of Tigecycline-Induced severe hypoglycemia, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1240933502552691459, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722571180691617, awardId=黔教技[2024]104号, language=CN, fundingSource=贵州省教育厅高等学校自然科学研究项目(黔教技[2024]104号), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1240933502632383244, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722571180691617, awardId=黔科合基础[2024]青年282, language=CN, fundingSource=贵州省科技厅基础研究计划(自然科学)青年引导项目(黔科合基础[2024]青年282), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1240933502716269333, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722571180691617, awardId=2024116K, language=CN, fundingSource=贵州医科大学附属医院IIT项目(2024116K), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1240933502816932636, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722571180691617, awardId=研究者GE2023YGK-259, language=CN, fundingSource=贵州医科大学附属医院GCP项目(研究者GE2023YGK-259), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1240933498568102414, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722571180691617, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1240933498576491023, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722571180691617, companyId=1240933498568102414, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Department of Hospital Infection Management, Affiliated Hospital of Guizhou Medical University, Guiyang, Guizhou 550004,China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1240933498584879633, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722571180691617, companyId=1240933498568102414, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=贵州医科大学附属医院医院感染管理科,贵州 贵阳 550004)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1240933501013381791, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722571180691617, language=EN, label=Figure 1, caption=
The cross-validation curve and coefficient path plot of LASSO regression analysis, figureFileSmall=pagEMh+O5uoF+PJKlGz7Yg==, figureFileBig=TJxTh7WN34WuBcwmywusRQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1240933501135016615, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722571180691617, language=CN, label=图1, caption=
LASSO回归分析交叉验证曲线LASSO系数路径图注:图A为交叉验证曲线;图B为LASSO系数路径图。
, figureFileSmall=pagEMh+O5uoF+PJKlGz7Yg==, figureFileBig=TJxTh7WN34WuBcwmywusRQ==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1240933501311177399, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722571180691617, language=EN, label=Figure 2, caption=
Nomogram for predicting mortality risk in patients with Kp infection, figureFileSmall=IUXZFFvFgainI5BF5lJ1dg==, figureFileBig=rNXNm96L7npheCab7+j1IA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1240933501508309693, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722571180691617, language=CN, label=图2, caption=
Kp感染患者死亡风险列线图注:HGB为血红蛋白。
, figureFileSmall=IUXZFFvFgainI5BF5lJ1dg==, figureFileBig=rNXNm96L7npheCab7+j1IA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1240933501629944519, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722571180691617, language=EN, label=Figure 3, caption=
ROC curve for mortality risk prediction in patients with Kp infection, figureFileSmall=rhhzLV41AG0bBhqqGZrDWQ==, figureFileBig=7dNGvS9m4pFdrOsB/ffcKA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1240933501718024910, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722571180691617, language=CN, label=图3, caption=
Kp感染患者死亡风险ROC曲线, figureFileSmall=rhhzLV41AG0bBhqqGZrDWQ==, figureFileBig=7dNGvS9m4pFdrOsB/ffcKA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1240933501818688214, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722571180691617, language=EN, label=Figure 4, caption=
Calibration curves for mortality risk prediction in Kp-infected patients, figureFileSmall=qACNwLYhtO2dCignP0jOqg==, figureFileBig=0YzjNps5EVYE0bgeVXgsOA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1240933501919351517, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722571180691617, language=CN, label=图4, caption=
Kp感染患者死亡风险校准曲线注:图A训练数据集;图B验证数据集。
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Decision curve analysis for mortality risk prediction in Kp-infected patients, figureFileSmall=1DOoNnovthI4exBkVJPRrg==, figureFileBig=m2plVIKNaGdRK2f1a56eDg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1240933502129066728, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722571180691617, language=CN, label=图5, caption=
Kp感染患者死亡风险DCA曲线注:图A训练数据集;图B验证数据集。
, figureFileSmall=1DOoNnovthI4exBkVJPRrg==, figureFileBig=m2plVIKNaGdRK2f1a56eDg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1240933502233924335, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722571180691617, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=
Baseline characteristics of the training and validation sets [n(%)]
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
| 项目 | | 数据集人数 | t/χ2值 | P值 |
|---|
| 训练集(n=1 972) | 验证集(n=1 148) |
|---|
| 性别 | 男 | 1 304 (66.1) | 786 (68.5) | 1.798 | 0.180 |
| 女 | 668 (33.9) | 362 (31.5) | | |
| 年龄>70岁 | 是 | 850 (43.1) | 562 (49.0) | 10.027 | 0.002 |
| 否 | 1 122 (56.9) | 586 (51.0) | | |
| CRKP | 是 | 486 (24.6) | 263 (22.9) | 1.198 | 0.274 |
| 否 | 1 486 (75.4) | 885 (77.1) | | |
| 手术 | 是 | 834 (42.3) | 467 (40.7) | 0.776 | 0.378 |
| 否 | 1 138 (57.7) | 681 (59.3) | | |
| 机械通气 | 是 | 612 (31.0) | 300 (26.1) | 8.429 | 0.004 |
| 否 | 1 360 (69.0) | 848 (73.9) | | |
| 留置尿管 | 是 | 888 (45.0) | 409 (35.6) | 26.414 | <0.001 |
| 否 | 1 084 (55.0) | 739 (64.4) | | |
| 留置血管导管 | 是 | 800 (40.6) | 408 (35.5) | 7.731 | 0.005 |
| 否 | 1 172 (59.4) | 740 (64.5) | | |
| 高血压 | 是 | 1 160 (58.8) | 693 (60.4) | 0.716 | 0.398 |
| 否 | 812 (41.2) | 455 (39.6) | | |
| 糖尿病 | 是 | 728 (36.9) | 474 (41.3) | 5.857 | 0.016 |
| 否 | 1 244 (63.1) | 674 (58.7) | | |
| 感染部位 | 呼吸系统 | 1 188 (60.2) | 717 (62.5) | 8.285 | 0.141 |
| 血液系统 | 164 (8.3) | 83 (7.2) | | |
| 泌尿系统 | 242 (12.3) | 132 (11.5) | | |
| 胸腹腔 | 180 (9.1) | 83 (7.2) | | |
| 皮肤软组织 | 168 (8.5) | 119 (10.4) | | |
| 其他 | 30 (1.5) | 14 (1.2) | | |
| WBC(×109/L) | <4 | 135 (6.8) | 66 (5.7) | 2.622 | 0.270 |
| >10 | 484 (24.5) | 305 (26.6) | | |
| 4~10 | 1 353 (68.6) | 777 (67.7) | | |
| 白蛋白(g/L) | <40 | 867 (44.0) | 290 (25.3) | 117.867 | <0.001 |
| 40~55 | 1 101 (55.8) | 844 (73.5) | | |
| >55 | 4 (0.2) | 14 (1.2) | | |
| 血红蛋白(g/L) | <115 | 472 (23.9) | 208 (18.1) | 14.940 | <0.001 |
| 115~150 | 1 176 (59.6) | 561 (48.9) | | |
| >150 | 324(16.4) | 379(33.0) | | |
), ArticleFig(id=1240933502359753465, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240722571180691617, language=CN, label=表1, caption=
训练数据集和验证数据集的基线特征[n(%)]
, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
| 项目 | | 数据集人数 | t/χ2值 | P值 |
|---|
| 训练集(n=1 972) | 验证集(n=1 148) |
|---|
| 性别 | 男 | 1 304 (66.1) | 786 (68.5) | 1.798 | 0.180 |
| 女 | 668 (33.9) | 362 (31.5) | | |
| 年龄>70岁 | 是 | 850 (43.1) | 562 (49.0) | 10.027 | 0.002 |
| 否 | 1 122 (56.9) | 586 (51.0) | | |
| CRKP | 是 | 486 (24.6) | 263 (22.9) | 1.198 | 0.274 |
| 否 | 1 486 (75.4) | 885 (77.1) | | |
| 手术 | 是 | 834 (42.3) | 467 (40.7) | 0.776 | 0.378 |
| 否 | 1 138 (57.7) | 681 (59.3) | | |
| 机械通气 | 是 | 612 (31.0) | 300 (26.1) | 8.429 | 0.004 |
| 否 | 1 360 (69.0) | 848 (73.9) | | |
| 留置尿管 | 是 | 888 (45.0) | 409 (35.6) | 26.414 | <0.001 |
| 否 | 1 084 (55.0) | 739 (64.4) | | |
| 留置血管导管 | 是 | 800 (40.6) | 408 (35.5) | 7.731 | 0.005 |
| 否 | 1 172 (59.4) | 740 (64.5) | | |
| 高血压 | 是 | 1 160 (58.8) | 693 (60.4) | 0.716 | 0.398 |
| 否 | 812 (41.2) | 455 (39.6) | | |
| 糖尿病 | 是 | 728 (36.9) | 474 (41.3) | 5.857 | 0.016 |
| 否 | 1 244 (63.1) | 674 (58.7) | | |
| 感染部位 | 呼吸系统 | 1 188 (60.2) | 717 (62.5) | 8.285 | 0.141 |
| 血液系统 | 164 (8.3) | 83 (7.2) | | |
| 泌尿系统 | 242 (12.3) | 132 (11.5) | | |
| 胸腹腔 | 180 (9.1) | 83 (7.2) | | |
| 皮肤软组织 | 168 (8.5) | 119 (10.4) | | |
| 其他 | 30 (1.5) | 14 (1.2) | | |
| WBC(×109/L) | <4 | 135 (6.8) | 66 (5.7) | 2.622 | 0.270 |
| >10 | 484 (24.5) | 305 (26.6) | | |
| 4~10 | 1 353 (68.6) | 777 (67.7) | | |
| 白蛋白(g/L) | <40 | 867 (44.0) | 290 (25.3) | 117.867 | <0.001 |
| 40~55 | 1 101 (55.8) | 844 (73.5) | | |
| >55 | 4 (0.2) | 14 (1.2) | | |
| 血红蛋白(g/L) | <115 | 472 (23.9) | 208 (18.1) | 14.940 | <0.001 |
| 115~150 | 1 176 (59.6) | 561 (48.9) | | |
| >150 | 324(16.4) | 379(33.0) | | |
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