Article(id=1240395011158757809, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1240395006914130733, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202501289, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1736956800000, receivedDateStr=2025-01-16, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773662816085, onlineDateStr=2026-03-16, pubDate=1753372800000, pubDateStr=2025-07-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773662816085, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-16, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773662816085, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773662816085, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1240395006914130733, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2025', volume='52', issue='14', pageStart='2497', pageEnd='2688', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=0, createTime=1773662815073, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773662858015, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1240395187109810535, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1240395006914130733, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1240395187109810536, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1240395006914130733, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=2594, endPage=2600, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1240395011376861637, articleId=1240395011158757809, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Selection of lung cancer screening strategies based on health economic evaluation, columnId=1228016567846367388, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Health Policy and Management, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To evaluate the health economy of the whole-process management strategy of personalized lung cancer screening according to the size of lung nodules compared with the annual screening strategy and the natural development strategy.

Methods

Based on the publicly available dataset from the US NLST, a decision tree-Markov model was constructed. Incremental cost-utility analysis was used to evaluate the economic efficiency of the three strategies, and one-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were conducted to test the stability of the model results.

Results

Compared with the natural development strategy, the incremental cost-utility ratios (ICER) of the whole-process management strategy and the annual screening strategy were 82 798.96 yuan/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and 71 168.05 yuan/QALY, respectively.Compared with the annual screening strategy, the ICER of the whole management strategy was 129 227.28 yuan/QALY. Univariate sensitivity analysis showed that the proportion of lung cancer patients with stage III and IV lung cancer had a significant impact on ICER. Probability sensitivity analysis showed that when the Willingness to pay (WTP) was 89 358 yuan/QALY, the economic probability of the whole management strategy was 0.279. When WTP was 268 074 yuan/QALY, the economic probability of the whole process management strategy was 0.826.

Conclusion

When WTP is 1 time the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the annual screening strategy is the best choice. When WTP is 3 times the GDP per capita, the whole-process management strategy is the best choice.

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目的

评价根据肺结节大小实施个性化肺癌筛查的全程管理策略相比于年度筛查策略、自然发展策略的卫生经济性。

方法

基于美国NLST公开数据集,构建决策树-马尔可夫模型,利用增量成本-效用分析评价三种策略的经济性,利用单因素敏感性分析与概率敏感性分析检验模型结果的稳定性。

结果

全程管理策略、年度筛查策略与自然发展策略相比,增量成本-效用比(Incremental cost-utility ratio,ICER)分别为82 798.96元/质量调整生命年(Quality Adjusted Life years, QALY)、71 168.05元/QALY。全程管理策略与年度筛查策略相比,ICER为129 227.28元/QALY。单因素敏感性分析显示,肺癌患者发展为Ⅲ期、Ⅳ期肺癌的比例对ICER影响显著。概率敏感性分析显示,当支付阈值(Wilingness to pay,WTP)为89 358元/QALY时,全程管理策略经济性概率为0.279。当WTP为268 074元/QALY时,全程管理策略经济性概率为0.826。

结论

当WTP为1倍人均国内生产总值(GrossDomestic Product, GDP)时,年度筛查策略为最优选择;当WTP为3倍人均GDP时,全程管理策略为最优选择。

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陈丹镝,E-mail:
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高天帅(1999—),男,硕士在读,研究方向:卫生政策评估

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Analysis of lung cancer screening results and incidence influencing factors of high-risk cohort population in longquanyi district of Chengdu city, Sichuan province from 2014 to 2018[J]. China Cancer, 2022, 31(12): 975-982. 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Parameter table of Marcov model for lung cancer screening and the range of parameter variation

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参数参数值参数变化范围来源
自然发展组肺癌患者I期肺癌的概率0.190.15~0.23[17]
自然发展组肺癌患者II期肺癌的概率0.160.13~0.20
自然发展组肺癌患者III期肺癌的概率0.350.28~0.42
自然发展组肺癌患者IV期肺癌的概率0.300.24~0.36
<5 mm肺结节肺癌患者I期肺癌概率0.420.39~0.46[14]
<5 mm肺结节肺癌患者II期肺癌概率0.070.04~0.10
<5 mm肺结节肺癌患者III期肺癌概率0.180.15~0.22
<5 mm肺结节肺癌患者IV期肺癌概率0.330.30~0.36
5~<15 mm肺结节肺癌患者I期肺癌概率0.580.50~0.65
5~<15 mm肺结节肺癌患者II期肺癌概率0.050~0.13
5~<15 mm肺结节肺癌患者III期肺癌概率0.180.10~0.25
5~<15 mm肺结节肺癌患者IV期肺癌概率0.200.12~0.27
≥15 mm肺结节肺癌患者I期肺癌概率0.580.50~0.66
≥15 mm肺结节肺癌患者II期肺癌概率0.050~0.15
≥15 mm肺结节肺癌患者III期肺癌概率0.210.13~0.29
≥15 mm肺结节肺癌患者IV期肺癌概率0.150.07~0.23
年度筛查组肺癌患者I期肺癌概率0.540.48~0.61
年度筛查组肺癌患者II期肺癌概率0.060~0.12
年度筛查组肺癌患者III期肺癌概率0.190.12~0.25
年度筛查组肺癌患者IV期肺癌概率0.210.15~0.28
<5 mm肺结节在肺癌高危人群分布概率0.540.43~0.65
5~<15 mm肺结节在肺癌高危人群分布概率0.420.34~0.50
≥15 mm肺结节在肺癌高危人群分布概率0.040.03~0.05
<5 mm肺结节发生肺癌相对危险度0.420.35~0.50
5~<15 mm肺结节发生肺癌相对危险度1.171.03~1.34
≥15 mm肺结节发生肺癌相对危险度5.864.86~7.07
55~59岁人群肺癌发病率(1/10万)99.8879.90~119.86[18]
60~64岁人群肺癌发病率(1/10万)181.81145.45~218.17
65~69岁人群肺癌发病率(1/10万)242.24193.79~290.69
70~74岁人群肺癌发病率(1/10万)296.29237.03~355.55
55~59岁人群全因死亡率(1/10万)444.35355.48~533.22[19]
60~64岁人群全因死亡率(1/10万)719.38575.50~863.26
65~69岁人群全因死亡率(1/10万)1 215.74972.59~1 458.89
70~74岁人群全因死亡率(1/10万)2 007.421 605.94~2 408.90
灵敏度(%)93.7089.00~100.00[20]
特异度(%)76.5070.00~93.00
), ArticleFig(id=1240413544638903034, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240395011158757809, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

肺癌筛查Marcov模型参数表及参数变化范围

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
参数参数值参数变化范围来源
自然发展组肺癌患者I期肺癌的概率0.190.15~0.23[17]
自然发展组肺癌患者II期肺癌的概率0.160.13~0.20
自然发展组肺癌患者III期肺癌的概率0.350.28~0.42
自然发展组肺癌患者IV期肺癌的概率0.300.24~0.36
<5 mm肺结节肺癌患者I期肺癌概率0.420.39~0.46[14]
<5 mm肺结节肺癌患者II期肺癌概率0.070.04~0.10
<5 mm肺结节肺癌患者III期肺癌概率0.180.15~0.22
<5 mm肺结节肺癌患者IV期肺癌概率0.330.30~0.36
5~<15 mm肺结节肺癌患者I期肺癌概率0.580.50~0.65
5~<15 mm肺结节肺癌患者II期肺癌概率0.050~0.13
5~<15 mm肺结节肺癌患者III期肺癌概率0.180.10~0.25
5~<15 mm肺结节肺癌患者IV期肺癌概率0.200.12~0.27
≥15 mm肺结节肺癌患者I期肺癌概率0.580.50~0.66
≥15 mm肺结节肺癌患者II期肺癌概率0.050~0.15
≥15 mm肺结节肺癌患者III期肺癌概率0.210.13~0.29
≥15 mm肺结节肺癌患者IV期肺癌概率0.150.07~0.23
年度筛查组肺癌患者I期肺癌概率0.540.48~0.61
年度筛查组肺癌患者II期肺癌概率0.060~0.12
年度筛查组肺癌患者III期肺癌概率0.190.12~0.25
年度筛查组肺癌患者IV期肺癌概率0.210.15~0.28
<5 mm肺结节在肺癌高危人群分布概率0.540.43~0.65
5~<15 mm肺结节在肺癌高危人群分布概率0.420.34~0.50
≥15 mm肺结节在肺癌高危人群分布概率0.040.03~0.05
<5 mm肺结节发生肺癌相对危险度0.420.35~0.50
5~<15 mm肺结节发生肺癌相对危险度1.171.03~1.34
≥15 mm肺结节发生肺癌相对危险度5.864.86~7.07
55~59岁人群肺癌发病率(1/10万)99.8879.90~119.86[18]
60~64岁人群肺癌发病率(1/10万)181.81145.45~218.17
65~69岁人群肺癌发病率(1/10万)242.24193.79~290.69
70~74岁人群肺癌发病率(1/10万)296.29237.03~355.55
55~59岁人群全因死亡率(1/10万)444.35355.48~533.22[19]
60~64岁人群全因死亡率(1/10万)719.38575.50~863.26
65~69岁人群全因死亡率(1/10万)1 215.74972.59~1 458.89
70~74岁人群全因死亡率(1/10万)2 007.421 605.94~2 408.90
灵敏度(%)93.7089.00~100.00[20]
特异度(%)76.5070.00~93.00
), ArticleFig(id=1240413544752149247, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240395011158757809, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Probability of metastasis between states in the Marcov model of lung cancer screening

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参数概率值来源
肺癌Ⅰ期转移为肺癌Ⅰ期0.094[21]
肺癌Ⅰ期转移为肺癌Ⅱ期0.198
肺癌Ⅰ期转移为肺癌Ⅲ期0.358
肺癌Ⅰ期转移为肺癌Ⅳ期0.246
肺癌Ⅰ期转移为死亡0.105
肺癌Ⅱ期转移为肺癌Ⅱ期0.389
肺癌Ⅱ期转移为肺癌Ⅲ期0.233
肺癌Ⅱ期转移为肺癌Ⅳ期0.168
肺癌Ⅱ期转移为死亡0.210
肺癌Ⅲ期转移为肺癌Ⅲ期0.497
肺癌Ⅲ期转移为肺癌Ⅳ期0.256
肺癌Ⅲ期转移为死亡0.246
肺癌Ⅳ期转移为肺癌Ⅳ期0.554
肺癌Ⅳ期转移为死亡0.446
), ArticleFig(id=1240413544894755590, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240395011158757809, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

肺癌筛查Marcov模型各状态之间的转移概率

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
参数概率值来源
肺癌Ⅰ期转移为肺癌Ⅰ期0.094[21]
肺癌Ⅰ期转移为肺癌Ⅱ期0.198
肺癌Ⅰ期转移为肺癌Ⅲ期0.358
肺癌Ⅰ期转移为肺癌Ⅳ期0.246
肺癌Ⅰ期转移为死亡0.105
肺癌Ⅱ期转移为肺癌Ⅱ期0.389
肺癌Ⅱ期转移为肺癌Ⅲ期0.233
肺癌Ⅱ期转移为肺癌Ⅳ期0.168
肺癌Ⅱ期转移为死亡0.210
肺癌Ⅲ期转移为肺癌Ⅲ期0.497
肺癌Ⅲ期转移为肺癌Ⅳ期0.256
肺癌Ⅲ期转移为死亡0.246
肺癌Ⅳ期转移为肺癌Ⅳ期0.554
肺癌Ⅳ期转移为死亡0.446
), ArticleFig(id=1240413545020584718, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240395011158757809, language=EN, label=Table 3, caption=

Cost parameters and range of changes in lung cancer patients

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
参数参数值参数变化范围(元)来源
I期肺癌总成本40 319.5432 255.63~48 383.45
II期肺癌总成本58 989.4847 191.58~70 787.38
III期肺癌总成本134 271.42107 417.14~161 125.70[21]
IV期肺癌总成本155 007.26124 005.81~186 008.712
筛查成本571.36457.09~685.63
诊断成本1 823.131 458.50~2 187.76[17]
), ArticleFig(id=1240413545133830933, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240395011158757809, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

肺癌患者成本参数及变化范围

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
参数参数值参数变化范围(元)来源
I期肺癌总成本40 319.5432 255.63~48 383.45
II期肺癌总成本58 989.4847 191.58~70 787.38
III期肺癌总成本134 271.42107 417.14~161 125.70[21]
IV期肺癌总成本155 007.26124 005.81~186 008.712
筛查成本571.36457.09~685.63
诊断成本1 823.131 458.50~2 187.76[17]
), ArticleFig(id=1240413545293214490, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240395011158757809, language=EN, label=Table 4, caption=

Efficacy parameters and the range of variation in lung cancer patient

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
参数参数值参数变化范围来源
I期肺癌效用0.900.72~1.08
II期肺癌效用0.800.64~0.96
III期肺癌效用0.600.48~0.72[22]
IV期肺癌效用0.400.32~0.48
健康效用1.000.80~1.20
死亡效用0.000
), ArticleFig(id=1240413545427432228, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240395011158757809, language=CN, label=表4, caption=

肺癌患者效用参数及变化范围

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
参数参数值参数变化范围来源
I期肺癌效用0.900.72~1.08
II期肺癌效用0.800.64~0.96
III期肺癌效用0.600.48~0.72[22]
IV期肺癌效用0.400.32~0.48
健康效用1.000.80~1.20
死亡效用0.000
), ArticleFig(id=1240413545578427181, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240395011158757809, language=EN, label=Table 5, caption=

The results of the cost-utility analysis of the three strategies are compared in pairs

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
组别总成本
(元)
增量成本
(元)
效果
(QALY)
增量效果
(QALY)
增量成本效果比(元 /QALY)
全程管理组vs.自然发展组
自然发展组6 903.3614.02
全程管理组11 520.184 616.8114.080.0682 798.96
年度筛查组vs.自然发展组
自然发展组6 903.3614.02
年度筛查组10 076.693 173.3214.070.0471 168.05
全程管理组vs.年度筛查组
年度筛查组10 076.6914.07
全程管理组11 520.181 443.4914.080.01129 227.28
), ArticleFig(id=1240413545737810744, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240395011158757809, language=CN, label=表5, caption=

三种策略两两对比的成本-效用分析结果

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
组别总成本
(元)
增量成本
(元)
效果
(QALY)
增量效果
(QALY)
增量成本效果比(元 /QALY)
全程管理组vs.自然发展组
自然发展组6 903.3614.02
全程管理组11 520.184 616.8114.080.0682 798.96
年度筛查组vs.自然发展组
自然发展组6 903.3614.02
年度筛查组10 076.693 173.3214.070.0471 168.05
全程管理组vs.年度筛查组
年度筛查组10 076.6914.07
全程管理组11 520.181 443.4914.080.01129 227.28
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基于卫生经济性评价的肺癌筛查策略选择
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高天帅 1, 2 , 申雨珂 3 , 赖锦 1, 2 , 张忻恒 1, 2 , 陈丹镝 1, 2
现代预防医学 | 卫生政策与管理 2025,52(14): 2594-2600
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现代预防医学 | 卫生政策与管理 2025, 52(14): 2594-2600
基于卫生经济性评价的肺癌筛查策略选择
全屏
高天帅1, 2, 申雨珂3, 赖锦1, 2, 张忻恒1, 2, 陈丹镝1, 2
作者信息
  • 1.四川大学华西公共卫生学院/华西第四医院,四川 成都 610041
  • 2.四川大学华西-协和陈志潜卫生健康研究院姑息医学研究中心
  • 3.国家癌症中心/中国医学科学院肿瘤医院分子肿瘤学国家重点实验室
  • 高天帅(1999—),男,硕士在读,研究方向:卫生政策评估

通讯作者:

陈丹镝,E-mail:
Selection of lung cancer screening strategies based on health economic evaluation
Tian-shuai GAO1, 2, Yu-ke SHEN3, Jin LAI1, 2, Xin-heng ZHANG1, 2, Dan-di CHEN1, 2
Affiliations
  • West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China
出版时间: 2025-07-25 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202501289
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目的

评价根据肺结节大小实施个性化肺癌筛查的全程管理策略相比于年度筛查策略、自然发展策略的卫生经济性。

方法

基于美国NLST公开数据集,构建决策树-马尔可夫模型,利用增量成本-效用分析评价三种策略的经济性,利用单因素敏感性分析与概率敏感性分析检验模型结果的稳定性。

结果

全程管理策略、年度筛查策略与自然发展策略相比,增量成本-效用比(Incremental cost-utility ratio,ICER)分别为82 798.96元/质量调整生命年(Quality Adjusted Life years, QALY)、71 168.05元/QALY。全程管理策略与年度筛查策略相比,ICER为129 227.28元/QALY。单因素敏感性分析显示,肺癌患者发展为Ⅲ期、Ⅳ期肺癌的比例对ICER影响显著。概率敏感性分析显示,当支付阈值(Wilingness to pay,WTP)为89 358元/QALY时,全程管理策略经济性概率为0.279。当WTP为268 074元/QALY时,全程管理策略经济性概率为0.826。

结论

当WTP为1倍人均国内生产总值(GrossDomestic Product, GDP)时,年度筛查策略为最优选择;当WTP为3倍人均GDP时,全程管理策略为最优选择。

肺结节  /  肺癌筛查  /  成本-效用分析
Objective

To evaluate the health economy of the whole-process management strategy of personalized lung cancer screening according to the size of lung nodules compared with the annual screening strategy and the natural development strategy.

Methods

Based on the publicly available dataset from the US NLST, a decision tree-Markov model was constructed. Incremental cost-utility analysis was used to evaluate the economic efficiency of the three strategies, and one-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were conducted to test the stability of the model results.

Results

Compared with the natural development strategy, the incremental cost-utility ratios (ICER) of the whole-process management strategy and the annual screening strategy were 82 798.96 yuan/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) and 71 168.05 yuan/QALY, respectively.Compared with the annual screening strategy, the ICER of the whole management strategy was 129 227.28 yuan/QALY. Univariate sensitivity analysis showed that the proportion of lung cancer patients with stage III and IV lung cancer had a significant impact on ICER. Probability sensitivity analysis showed that when the Willingness to pay (WTP) was 89 358 yuan/QALY, the economic probability of the whole management strategy was 0.279. When WTP was 268 074 yuan/QALY, the economic probability of the whole process management strategy was 0.826.

Conclusion

When WTP is 1 time the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the annual screening strategy is the best choice. When WTP is 3 times the GDP per capita, the whole-process management strategy is the best choice.

Pulmonary nodules  /  Lung cancer screening  /  Cost-utility analysis
高天帅, 申雨珂, 赖锦, 张忻恒, 陈丹镝. 基于卫生经济性评价的肺癌筛查策略选择. 现代预防医学, 2025 , 52 (14) : 2594 -2600 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202501289
Tian-shuai GAO, Yu-ke SHEN, Jin LAI, Xin-heng ZHANG, Dan-di CHEN. Selection of lung cancer screening strategies based on health economic evaluation[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2025 , 52 (14) : 2594 -2600 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202501289
2022年全球癌症统计报告数据[1]显示,2022年全球新发癌症1 996.5万,其中肺癌占比12.4%,在所有癌症中占比最高。中国是肺癌高发国家,全球超过三分之一的新发肺癌和近40%的肺癌死亡发生在中国,造成了极大的疾病负担[2]。研究显示肺癌识别阶段越早[3],患者预后生存越佳,肺癌I期五年生存率约可达80%以上,而肺癌IV期五年生存率仅有10%左右,且肺癌进展越晚,带来的疾病负担更重。然而由于肺癌的早期隐匿性,导致临床许多患者被发现时就已在难以逆转的晚期状态,据统计,目前临床肺癌早期患者仅占19%[4]
尽管肺癌演变隐匿复杂,但早期进展过程中的肺结节是一个可被筛查监测的临床前期指标[5]。因此加强肺结节早期识别,对于肺癌防治而言是最佳策略。低剂量螺旋计算机断层扫描(Low Dose helical Computed Tomography, LDCT)是肺癌早筛的重要工具,可有效降低肺癌死亡率[6]。目前中国有部分研究[7-8]对其有效性与经济性进行探究[9],但讨论内容多基于肺癌高危人群最佳筛查频率或筛查起始年龄,很少针对肺结节这一关键指标。更加个性化的肺癌筛查策略将更有益于肺癌检出。此外对于连续筛查阴性的低风险患者一味过度筛查并不能带来健康益处[10],结合人群肺结节状况给予不同筛查频率的管理策略才是未来肺癌防治的主流趋势[11-13],关于这一策略是否符合卫生经济学原则并适合我国肺癌高危人群的管理,暂未有足够研究探索。故本研究旨在评价根据肺结节大小进行肺癌筛查的经济性,为相关政策制定提供依据。
基于美国NLST公开数据集[14],选择年龄在55~74岁为目标人群,构建决策树-马尔可夫模型,根据肺癌自然史划分为6种状态:健康、I期、II期、III期、IV期、死亡。模型构建通过Treeage Pro 2022软件实现,模型结构见图1。成本与效用按每年3%贴现率进行贴现处理,支付阈值采用2023年我国1~3倍人均GDP。
(1)确诊为肺癌的患者接受治疗后,I、II期肺癌患者分别有50%、70%[15]的概率可以治愈,治愈后作为健康人群参与下次循环,III、IV期肺癌患者不可治愈,未治愈患者以原状态参与下次循环;(2)筛查为假阳性的人群作为健康人群继续进行下一轮筛查;(3)本研究暂不考虑人群肺结节大小随时间变化的情况。
本研究将肺癌筛查策略分为三类:肺结节全程管理组、肺结节年度筛查组、自然发展组,各组管理流程如下。
结合国内现行肺癌筛查指南[11-13],本研究拟通过一次基线筛查划分人群肺结节初始分布状态,以5 mm和15 mm为界,将肺结节筛查群体分为<5 mm(低风险)、5~<15 mm(中风险)以及≥15 mm(高风险)肺结节人群,筛查频次基于各指南综合建议分别定为:每12个月1次的年度随访、6个月1次的半年度随访以及3个月1次的季度随访,同时对于连续2年筛查阴性的个体停止筛查2年。全程管理筛查流程如图2所示:
该组别对所有人群进行年度筛查,并且遵照国内相关指南建议,针对肺癌高危的个体若连续2年筛查结果为阴性,则停止筛查两年后再行筛查。年度筛查流程如图3所示:
不对研究人群进行任何肺癌筛查及主动干预,这部分群体肺癌发病情况依靠偶然发现及患者主动就医。
本研究涉及的相关参数主要有:肺癌I期-IV期间不同期次间肺癌转化概率,人群年龄别全因死亡率、人群年龄别肺癌发病率、人群中不同大小肺结节分布状态及后续发展为各期肺癌的几率、LDCT筛查灵敏度等,这些参数将参考国内外文献研究、美国NLST公开数据集、中国肿瘤登记年报(2021年)、中国卫生统计年鉴(2023年)等。具体参数见表1表2
由于马尔可夫模型中的“转移概率”(probability, p)与参考文献或官方数据中的“率”(rate, r)在内涵上并不一致,因此研究中需要使用概率转换将“率”转换至“概率”,从而分别估算不同筛查周期下的半年度、季度相关肺癌发病概率。
事件率与模型转移概率的转换p=1-e-rt
注明:t为研究时间,p为马尔可夫模型中的事件发生概率,r为文献研究中引证研究时间为t的发生率。
不同筛查频次下相应事件概率的换算pn=1-(1-pmn/m
注明:pn为频率为n月/次的筛查周期下相关事件的发生概率,pm为频率为m月/次的筛查周期下相关事件的发生概率。
研究中涉及到的成本和效用,主要参考国内既往肺癌患者经济负担相关研究获得,同时根据居民消费价格指数进行调整,将参考文献中当年成本数据相应调整至2023年水平。主要包括包括筛查成本与后续因肺癌治疗产生的疾病成本。具体参数见表3表4
(1)筛查成本:主要包括机构费用(如LDCT扫描费、造影剂费用、注射剂费用等等)与部分个人费用(个人因参加筛查产生的误工、交通费等)。
(2)疾病成本:主要包括直接医疗费用、直接非医疗费用、间接费用。
1)直接医疗费用:包括覆盖医保支付、个人支付和其他基金来源所产生的门诊费用和住院费用;
2)直接非医疗费用:指患者在就医过程中产生的间接费用,主要为交通费、住宿费、营养费;
3)间接费用:指患者因患病导致的失去劳动能力、无法正常工作等而造成间接经济损失。
本研究采用单因素、概率敏感性分析检验模型结果的稳定性。单因素敏感性分析结果以龙卷风图呈现,选择的不确定参数包括:筛查成本、确诊成本、LDCT筛查灵敏度、贴现率、不同肺结节状态下人群肺癌分期等参数。对于无法获得置信区间的部分参数如成本类参数规定使用基准值±20%作为波动区间上下限。概率敏感性分析结果以成本-效用可接受曲线呈现,同时假定成本类参数呈 Gamma 分布,概率类与健康效用类参数呈 Beta 分布、相对危险度类参数服呈LogNormal分布,二阶蒙特卡洛模拟迭代次数为10 000次。
成本-效用分析结果如(表5)所示。与自然发展组相比,全程管理组ICER为82 798.96元/QALY,年度筛查组ICER为71 168.05元/QALY,均在我国1倍人均GDP(89 358元/QALY)以内,说明肺癌筛查策略相比于不筛查策略非常具有经济性。全程管理组与年度筛查组相比ICER为129 227.28元/QALY,在1~3倍人均GDP(89 358~268 074元/QALY)以内,说明全程管理组相比于年度筛查组具有经济性。
单因素敏感性分析结果显示(图4),在全程管理组、年度筛查组与自然发展组的对比中,贴现率、自然发展组中肺癌患者发展为Ⅲ期、Ⅳ期肺癌的比例对结果影响最为显著,但不影响两种筛查策略的经济性。在全程管理组与年度筛查组的对比中,年度筛查组中肺癌患者发展为Ⅲ期、Ⅳ期肺癌的比例对结果影响最为显著,且有可能使结果变的不具有经济性,说明全程管理组与年度筛查组的对比结果有一定的不确定性。
概率敏感性分析结果显示(图5),当WTP为1倍人均GDP(89 358元/QALY)时,年度筛查组具有经济性的概率为0.69,高于其它两组。当WTP在1~3倍人均GDP(89 358~268 074元/QALY)之间时,年度筛查组、自然发展组具有经济性的概率在逐渐降低,在WTP约为13 000元/QALY时,全程管理组和年度筛查组的经济性概率趋于一致,此后全程管理组具有经济性的概率均高于其它两组。当WTP为3倍人均GDP(268 074元/QALY)时,全程管理组具有经济性的概率为0.826。上述结果与成本-效用分析结果一致,说明模型结果稳健。
本研究综合现行主要的肺癌筛查指南对肺癌筛查策略进行了新的模型构建,通过纳入肺结节在肺癌高危人群中的分布,全面探索根据肺结节大小进行个性化筛查策略的经济效益。成本效用分析显示,两种筛查策略的ICER均在我国1倍人均GDP以内,说明LDCT肺癌筛查是具有经济性的,这与国内其它研究结果一致。例如王莉[15]对安徽城市肺癌筛查的研究结果提示,1年、2年、3年、5年一次的LDCT肺癌筛查均具有经济性。郭思柔[17]、潘浩[21]的研究也同样认为肺癌筛查具有经济性。本研究与上述研究不同之处在于,根据肺结节大小进行不同频率的肺癌筛查,对于部分人群会进行多次筛查,同时为避免频繁筛查造成的伤害,在连续筛查两年健康以后会停止筛查两年,筛查频率相对更高。四川省一项对肺癌高危人群队列的筛查结果提示,筛查次数与发病风险关系密切,与仅进行一次筛查相比,筛查次数越多人群肺癌发病风险有所降低且差异具有统计学意义,这与本次研究结果相契合。
单因素敏感性分析显示,Ⅲ期、Ⅳ期肺癌的比例对结果影响非常显著,可能因为Ⅲ期、Ⅳ期的晚期肺癌不仅治疗成本高,且死亡率高,对效果影响也非常大。若在筛查中发现更多的早期病例并及时干预,肺癌筛查将更加具有经济性。概率敏感性分析显示,两种筛查策略皆有可取之处,全程管理策略虽然可以发现更多的早期病例,但需投入更多成本,需要更高的WTP才具有经济性。因此各地在制定卫生政策时需要依据自身经济状况开展不同筛查策略,对高风险人群可采取全程管理策略,对风险相对较低人群可采取年度筛查策略,从而更好的利用有限的卫生资源。
本研究的局限性如下:(1)本研究基于一定假设,对于肺结节管理策略进行了相应简化,暂未对肺结节变化进展情况进行考虑,与真实世界存在一定差异。(2)本研究肺结节特性资料参考美国NLST公开数据集,利用国外人群肺结节特性资料推断我国本土人群肺结节分布状态可能存在一定偏差,后续若能得到中国居民肺结节相关分布数据再次进行研究讨论,将能进一步提高本研究结论的真实性与适用性。(3)本研究纳入高危人群特征多样,但仅考虑了年龄这一危险因素,其它特征的危险度并未体现在结果当中,若加以考虑,会进一步体现筛查的重要性。
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202501289
  • 接收时间:2025-01-16
  • 首发时间:2026-03-16
  • 出版时间:2025-07-25
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    1.四川大学华西公共卫生学院/华西第四医院,四川 成都 610041
    2.四川大学华西-协和陈志潜卫生健康研究院姑息医学研究中心
    3.国家癌症中心/中国医学科学院肿瘤医院分子肿瘤学国家重点实验室

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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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