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Article(id=1240375109190480856, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1240375105386238038, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202311136, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1699286400000, receivedDateStr=2023-11-07, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1773658071085, onlineDateStr=2026-03-16, pubDate=1711296000000, pubDateStr=2024-03-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1773658071085, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-03-16, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1773658071085, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773658071085, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1240375105386238038, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2024', volume='51', issue='6', pageStart='961', pageEnd='1152', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1773658070179, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1773658539618, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1240377074414833974, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1240375105386238038, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1240377074414833975, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1240375105386238038, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=980, endPage=987, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1240375110683653092, articleId=1240375109190480856, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Trends and age-period-cohort analyses of liver cancer incidence and death due to hepatitis B virus infection in China, 1990-2019, columnId=1228016567443718970, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Epidemiology and Statistical Methods Advances, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To analyze the trend of incidence and mortality of liver cancer due to HBV (hepatitis B virus, HBV) infection in China from 1990 to 2019, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of liver cancer.

Methods

Using the Global Burden of Disease database, the incidence and mortality of liver cancer due to HBV infection in China were analysed from 1990 to 2019, and a Joinpoint regression model was applied to analyse the trends in the incidence and mortality of liver cancer due to HBV infection. An age-period-cohort model was constructed to analyze the effects of three factors: age, period, and cohort on changes in morbidity and mortality.

Results

The overall trend of the standardized incidence rate and the standardized mortality rate of liver cancer due to HBV infection for both men and women in China from 1990 to 2019 showed a decreasing trend. The average annual rates of change in the standardized incidence rate for men and women were -2.94% and -4.24%, respectively. And the average annual rates of change in the standardized mortality rate were -3.35% and -4.45%, respectively. The age-period-cohort model showed that the risk of morbidity and mortality for males and females tended to increase and then decrease with age, and the overall trend decreased with period and birth cohort, but there was a slight increase locally.

Conclusion

The incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer caused by HBV infection show a substantial downward trend from 1990 to 2019. In the future, the problem of HBV-induced liver cancer will remain serious, and it is recommended that hepatitis B (Hepatitis B) vaccination be expanded among high-risk groups, and that public education on health behaviors be strengthened and early screening for liver cancer be actively carried out.

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目的

分析1990—2019年中国HBV(hepatitis B virus,乙型肝炎病毒)感染导致的肝癌发病率和死亡率变化趋势，为肝癌的防控提供科学依据。

方法

利用全球疾病负担数据库，分析1990—2019年中国HBV感染导致的肝癌发病和死亡情况，应用Joinpoint回归模型分析HBV感染导致的肝癌发病率和死亡率的变化趋势。构建年龄-时期-队列模型分析年龄、时期、队列三个因素对发病率及死亡率变化的影响。

结果

1990—2019年中国男性和女性HBV感染导致的肝癌标化发病率及标化死亡率整体均呈现下降趋势。男性和女性标化发病率平均年变化率分别为-2.94%和-4.24%，标化死亡率平均年变化率分别为-3.35%和-4.45%。年龄-时期-队列模型显示，男性和女性发病及死亡风险随年龄的增长呈现先升高再下降的趋势、随时期和出生队列的增长整体呈现下降趋势，但局部有略微增长。

结论

1990—2019年HBV感染导致的肝癌发病率和死亡率呈现大幅度下降趋势。未来HBV导致的肝癌问题依然严峻，建议在高危人群中扩大乙肝（乙型肝炎）疫苗的接种，加强健康行为宣传教育及积极开展肝癌的早期筛查。

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苏成豪，E-mail：
, copyrightStatement=本刊刊出的所有文章不代表中华预防医学会和本刊编委会的观点，除非特别声明。, copyrightOwner=中华预防医学会和四川大学华西公共卫生学院, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=ZqnQXVbuMW297O59IkDioA==, magXml=nnd18cH2bMEfCCHAG8dARw==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=L2Zb2is1vsJ+QgVhCwlcnA==, pdfFileSize=982270, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=jjwjgnqpRQHdKpshXaqhlQ==, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=5ZthiVwKWM5WsWpgAspo3A==, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=

任书昊（1998—），男，硕士在读，研究方向：流行病与卫生统计学

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任书昊（1998—），男，硕士在读，研究方向：流行病与卫生统计学

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注：A1~A14分别代表15～19岁至80～84岁；A, B分别表示发病率和死亡率纵向年龄曲线。

, figureFileSmall=pdAGyA0arrAYPFMHtR8/yw==, figureFileBig=qKo+Rl09NtPlc/c/YD61ug==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1240746309771120908, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240375109190480856, language=EN, label=Fig.4, caption=Period effect of liver cancer incidence and mortality due to HBV infection in Chinese men and women, figureFileSmall=liOYTdBvNDUY74oljY8FRw==, figureFileBig=nG/2tdtUIH6u7Ts6YLm6nA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1240746309880172819, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240375109190480856, language=CN, label=图4, caption=中国男女性HBV感染导致的肝癌发病率及死亡率的时期效应

注：B1~B6分别表示1990—1994年至2015—2019年；A, B分别代表发病率和死亡率时期效应。

, figureFileSmall=liOYTdBvNDUY74oljY8FRw==, figureFileBig=nG/2tdtUIH6u7Ts6YLm6nA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1240746310018584858, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240375109190480856, language=EN, label=Fig.5, caption=Cohort effect of liver cancer incidence and mortality due to HBV infection in Chinese men and women, figureFileSmall=6+u8gtuVpDoiABL91Ocr7Q==, figureFileBig=itml8GSYiII87LxFllt04Q==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1240746310148608290, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240375109190480856, language=CN, label=图5, caption=中国男女性HBV感染导致的肝癌发病率及死亡率队列效应

注：C1~C19分别表示1900—1904年至2000—2004年，A, B分别代表发病率和死亡率队列效应。

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Trends in standardised incidence/mortality rates of liver cancer due to HBV infection in China, 1990-2019

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
疾病指标人群变化趋势年份（年）APC(%) (95% CI)t值P值AAPC(%)(95% CI)t值P值
标化发病率总人群变化趋势-3.23(-3.49～-2.97)-23.71<0.001
趋势11990—19951.87( 1.43～2.33)9.09<0.001
趋势21995—1998-2.51(-3.90～-1.11)-3.83<0.001
趋势31998—2001-5.71( -7.31～-4.09)-7.43<0.001
趋势42001—2005-17.65(-18.29～-17.00)-53.77<0.001
趋势52005—2010-1.94(-2.54～-1.33)-6.85<0.001
趋势62010—20190.92( 0.64～1.20)7.06<0.001
男性变化趋势-2.94(-3.13～-2.75)-29.85<0.001
趋势11990—19942.96(2.47～3.45)13.25<0.001
趋势21994—1998-1.49(-2.08～-0.90)-5.45<0.001
趋势31998—2001-5.65(-6.88～-4.40)-9.54<0.001
趋势42001—2005-17.89(-18.30～-17.40)-72.92<0.001
趋势52005—2010-1.51(-1.96～-1.06)-7.17<0.001
趋势62010—20191.30(1.08～1.52)12.99<0.001
女性变化趋势-4.24(-4.52～-3.97)-29.59<0.001
趋势11990—19950.12(-0.34～0.58)0.570.579
趋势21995—1998-3.41(-5.02～-1.77)-4.470.001
趋势31998—2001-6.66(-8.27～-5.01)-8.53<0.001
趋势42001—2005-16.20(-16.91～-15.48)-44.83<0.001
趋势52005—2012-3.17(-3.50～-2.84)-20.29<0.001
趋势62012—2019-0.30(-0.72～0.13)-1.490.158
标化死亡率总人群变化趋势-3.57(-3.83～-3.31)-26.34<0.001
趋势11990—19961.58(1.26～1.90)10.65<0.001
趋势21996—2000-3.67(-4.39～-2.94)-10.78<0.001
趋势32000—2004-17.86(-18.58～-17.13)-48.35<0.001
趋势42004—2007-5.43(-7.11～-3.73)-6.75<0.001
趋势52007—2012-2.30(-2.93～-1.67)-7.81<0.001
趋势62012—20191.03(0.56～1.50)4.72<0.001
男性变化趋势-3.35(-3.64～-3.07)-22.59<0.001
趋势11990—19961.92(1.56～2.28)11.55<0.001
趋势21996—2000-3.44(-4.25～-2.62)-8.96<0.001
趋势32000—2004-18.11(-18.91～-17.29)-43.49<0.001
趋势42004—2007-5.26(-7.04～-3.44)-6.15<0.001
趋势52007—2012-1.88(-7.04～-3.44)-5.79<0.001
趋势62012—20191.34(0.83～1.86)5.64<0.001
女性变化趋势-4.45(-4.62～-4.27)-48.62<0.001
趋势11990—1996-0.13(-0.35～0.09)-1.310.210
趋势21996—2000-4.81(-5.32～-4.30)-20.03<0.001
趋势32000—2004-16.19(-16.68～-15.69)-64.79<0.001
趋势42004—2007-6.13(-7.29～-4.95)-10.97<0.001
趋势52007—2013-3.73(-4.03～-3.43)-26.25<0.001
趋势62013—20190.17(-0.20～0.55)0.990.340
), ArticleFig(id=1240746310375100723, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240375109190480856, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

1990—2019中国HBV感染导致的肝癌标化发病率/死亡率变化趋势

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
疾病指标人群变化趋势年份（年）APC(%) (95% CI)t值P值AAPC(%)(95% CI)t值P值
标化发病率总人群变化趋势-3.23(-3.49～-2.97)-23.71<0.001
趋势11990—19951.87( 1.43～2.33)9.09<0.001
趋势21995—1998-2.51(-3.90～-1.11)-3.83<0.001
趋势31998—2001-5.71( -7.31～-4.09)-7.43<0.001
趋势42001—2005-17.65(-18.29～-17.00)-53.77<0.001
趋势52005—2010-1.94(-2.54～-1.33)-6.85<0.001
趋势62010—20190.92( 0.64～1.20)7.06<0.001
男性变化趋势-2.94(-3.13～-2.75)-29.85<0.001
趋势11990—19942.96(2.47～3.45)13.25<0.001
趋势21994—1998-1.49(-2.08～-0.90)-5.45<0.001
趋势31998—2001-5.65(-6.88～-4.40)-9.54<0.001
趋势42001—2005-17.89(-18.30～-17.40)-72.92<0.001
趋势52005—2010-1.51(-1.96～-1.06)-7.17<0.001
趋势62010—20191.30(1.08～1.52)12.99<0.001
女性变化趋势-4.24(-4.52～-3.97)-29.59<0.001
趋势11990—19950.12(-0.34～0.58)0.570.579
趋势21995—1998-3.41(-5.02～-1.77)-4.470.001
趋势31998—2001-6.66(-8.27～-5.01)-8.53<0.001
趋势42001—2005-16.20(-16.91～-15.48)-44.83<0.001
趋势52005—2012-3.17(-3.50～-2.84)-20.29<0.001
趋势62012—2019-0.30(-0.72～0.13)-1.490.158
标化死亡率总人群变化趋势-3.57(-3.83～-3.31)-26.34<0.001
趋势11990—19961.58(1.26～1.90)10.65<0.001
趋势21996—2000-3.67(-4.39～-2.94)-10.78<0.001
趋势32000—2004-17.86(-18.58～-17.13)-48.35<0.001
趋势42004—2007-5.43(-7.11～-3.73)-6.75<0.001
趋势52007—2012-2.30(-2.93～-1.67)-7.81<0.001
趋势62012—20191.03(0.56～1.50)4.72<0.001
男性变化趋势-3.35(-3.64～-3.07)-22.59<0.001
趋势11990—19961.92(1.56～2.28)11.55<0.001
趋势21996—2000-3.44(-4.25～-2.62)-8.96<0.001
趋势32000—2004-18.11(-18.91～-17.29)-43.49<0.001
趋势42004—2007-5.26(-7.04～-3.44)-6.15<0.001
趋势52007—2012-1.88(-7.04～-3.44)-5.79<0.001
趋势62012—20191.34(0.83～1.86)5.64<0.001
女性变化趋势-4.45(-4.62～-4.27)-48.62<0.001
趋势11990—1996-0.13(-0.35～0.09)-1.310.210
趋势21996—2000-4.81(-5.32～-4.30)-20.03<0.001
趋势32000—2004-16.19(-16.68～-15.69)-64.79<0.001
趋势42004—2007-6.13(-7.29～-4.95)-10.97<0.001
趋势52007—2013-3.73(-4.03～-3.43)-26.25<0.001
趋势62013—20190.17(-0.20～0.55)0.990.340
), ArticleFig(id=1240746310479958325, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240375109190480856, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Age-period-cohort model test for incidence and mortality of liver cancer in men and women due to HBV infection in China, 1990-2019

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
零假设男性发病率女性发病率男性死亡率女性死亡率
χ2Pχ2Pχ2Pχ2P
净偏移(net drift)=0295.15<0.0502 817.89<0.05303.95<0.0501 661.77<0.05
总年龄偏差(all age deviatios)=0258.63<0.050547.78<0.05234.62<0.050311.49<0.05
总时期偏差(all period deviations)=097.85<0.050428.45<0.05109.19<0.050317.96<0.05
总队列偏差(all cohort deviations)=09.200.934113.76<0.0510.550.87993.39<0.05
全时期RR值(all period RR)=1382.10<0.0503 247.28<0.05405.65<0.0501 990.54<0.05
全队列RR值(all cohort RR)=1677.81<0.0505 387.79<0.05867.53<0.0504 152.55<0.05
所有局部偏移(all local drifts)=全局偏移(net drift)8.690.851109.85<0.0510.140.75290.07<0.05
), ArticleFig(id=1240746310584815931, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1240375109190480856, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

1990—2019年中国HBV感染导致的肝癌男、女性发病率及死亡率年龄-时期-队列模型检验

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
零假设男性发病率女性发病率男性死亡率女性死亡率
χ2Pχ2Pχ2Pχ2P
净偏移(net drift)=0295.15<0.0502 817.89<0.05303.95<0.0501 661.77<0.05
总年龄偏差(all age deviatios)=0258.63<0.050547.78<0.05234.62<0.050311.49<0.05
总时期偏差(all period deviations)=097.85<0.050428.45<0.05109.19<0.050317.96<0.05
总队列偏差(all cohort deviations)=09.200.934113.76<0.0510.550.87993.39<0.05
全时期RR值(all period RR)=1382.10<0.0503 247.28<0.05405.65<0.0501 990.54<0.05
全队列RR值(all cohort RR)=1677.81<0.0505 387.79<0.05867.53<0.0504 152.55<0.05
所有局部偏移(all local drifts)=全局偏移(net drift)8.690.851109.85<0.0510.140.75290.07<0.05
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1990—2019年中国HBV感染导致的肝癌发病和死亡趋势及年龄-时期-队列分析
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任书昊 1, 3 , 郭志南 2 , 米宏霏 3 , 张瑞欣 1, 3 , 贺庭娟 3 , 许连升 2 , 苏成豪 3
现代预防医学 | 流行病与统计方法 2024,51(6): 980-987
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现代预防医学 | 流行病与统计方法 2024, 51(6): 980-987
1990—2019年中国HBV感染导致的肝癌发病和死亡趋势及年龄-时期-队列分析
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任书昊1, 3, 郭志南2, 米宏霏3, 张瑞欣1, 3, 贺庭娟3, 许连升2, 苏成豪3
作者信息
  • 1.厦门大学公共卫生学院，福建 厦门 361102
  • 2.厦门市疾病预防控制中心
  • 3.复旦大学附属中山医院厦门医院

    • 任书昊（1998—），男，硕士在读，研究方向：流行病与卫生统计学

通讯作者:

苏成豪，E-mail：
Trends and age-period-cohort analyses of liver cancer incidence and death due to hepatitis B virus infection in China, 1990-2019
Shu-hao REN1, 3, Zhi-nan GUO2, Hong-fei MI3, Rui-xin ZHANG1, 3, Ting-juan HE3, Lian-sheng XU2, Cheng-hao SU3
Affiliations
  • School of Public Health, Xiamen University, Xiamen, Fujian 361102, China
出版时间: 2024-03-25 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202311136
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摘要
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目的

分析1990—2019年中国HBV(hepatitis B virus,乙型肝炎病毒)感染导致的肝癌发病率和死亡率变化趋势，为肝癌的防控提供科学依据。

方法

利用全球疾病负担数据库，分析1990—2019年中国HBV感染导致的肝癌发病和死亡情况，应用Joinpoint回归模型分析HBV感染导致的肝癌发病率和死亡率的变化趋势。构建年龄-时期-队列模型分析年龄、时期、队列三个因素对发病率及死亡率变化的影响。

结果

1990—2019年中国男性和女性HBV感染导致的肝癌标化发病率及标化死亡率整体均呈现下降趋势。男性和女性标化发病率平均年变化率分别为-2.94%和-4.24%，标化死亡率平均年变化率分别为-3.35%和-4.45%。年龄-时期-队列模型显示，男性和女性发病及死亡风险随年龄的增长呈现先升高再下降的趋势、随时期和出生队列的增长整体呈现下降趋势，但局部有略微增长。

结论

1990—2019年HBV感染导致的肝癌发病率和死亡率呈现大幅度下降趋势。未来HBV导致的肝癌问题依然严峻，建议在高危人群中扩大乙肝（乙型肝炎）疫苗的接种，加强健康行为宣传教育及积极开展肝癌的早期筛查。

乙型肝炎病毒  /  肝癌  /  Joinpoint回归模型  /  年龄-时期-队列模型
Objective

To analyze the trend of incidence and mortality of liver cancer due to HBV (hepatitis B virus, HBV) infection in China from 1990 to 2019, and to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of liver cancer.

Methods

Using the Global Burden of Disease database, the incidence and mortality of liver cancer due to HBV infection in China were analysed from 1990 to 2019, and a Joinpoint regression model was applied to analyse the trends in the incidence and mortality of liver cancer due to HBV infection. An age-period-cohort model was constructed to analyze the effects of three factors: age, period, and cohort on changes in morbidity and mortality.

Results

The overall trend of the standardized incidence rate and the standardized mortality rate of liver cancer due to HBV infection for both men and women in China from 1990 to 2019 showed a decreasing trend. The average annual rates of change in the standardized incidence rate for men and women were -2.94% and -4.24%, respectively. And the average annual rates of change in the standardized mortality rate were -3.35% and -4.45%, respectively. The age-period-cohort model showed that the risk of morbidity and mortality for males and females tended to increase and then decrease with age, and the overall trend decreased with period and birth cohort, but there was a slight increase locally.

Conclusion

The incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer caused by HBV infection show a substantial downward trend from 1990 to 2019. In the future, the problem of HBV-induced liver cancer will remain serious, and it is recommended that hepatitis B (Hepatitis B) vaccination be expanded among high-risk groups, and that public education on health behaviors be strengthened and early screening for liver cancer be actively carried out.

Hepatitis B virus  /  Liver cancer  /  Joinpoint regression model  /  Age-period-cohort model
任书昊, 郭志南, 米宏霏, 张瑞欣, 贺庭娟, 许连升, 苏成豪. 1990—2019年中国HBV感染导致的肝癌发病和死亡趋势及年龄-时期-队列分析. 现代预防医学, 2024 , 51 (6) : 980 -987 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202311136
Shu-hao REN, Zhi-nan GUO, Hong-fei MI, Rui-xin ZHANG, Ting-juan HE, Lian-sheng XU, Cheng-hao SU. Trends and age-period-cohort analyses of liver cancer incidence and death due to hepatitis B virus infection in China, 1990-2019[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2024 , 51 (6) : 980 -987 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202311136
正文
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肝癌是我国发病及死亡风险较高的恶性肿瘤之一。根据2020全球肿瘤流行病统计数据估计我国在2020年肝癌发病人数达到41.00万，占全球肝癌新发病例的45.27%。肝癌死亡例数将达到39.12万，占全球肝癌死亡例数的47.12%[1]。HBV(hepatitis B virus,乙型肝炎病毒)感染是导致肝细胞癌的最主要危险因素之一，中国是世界上HBV感染负担最重的国家，2017年中国估计有9 000万人感染HBV[2]。中国也被认为是实现世界卫生组织到2030年消除乙型肝炎病毒（HBV）这一全球健康威胁目标的主要贡献者[3]。本文对1990—2019年中国HBV感染导致的肝癌发病及死亡趋势进行描述，并通过年龄-时期-队列模型分析年龄、时期、队列三个因素对HBV感染导致的肝癌发病及死亡风险的影响，旨在提出建议性的防控措施，以期降低我国未来HBV感染导致的肝癌发病及死亡风险。
1 资料与方法
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1.1 资料来源
本研究中1990—2019年HBV感染导致的肝癌发病和死亡数据均来自于全球疾病负担数据库（global burden of disease，GBD）。该数据库提供了204个国家或地区369种疾病和伤害的全球负担数据[4]。本研究从GBD数据库中提取了1990—2019年中国HBV感染导致的肝癌各年龄段、性别的发病和死亡数据。此外，本研究采用了2010年第六次全国人口普查数据进行年龄标化率的计算。
1.2 统计学方法
1.2.1 Joinpoint回归分析
Joinpoint回归模型是通过对数线性模型进行拟合，将疾病的长期变化趋势科学地分成若干个连续区间，该模型现广泛应用于肿瘤发病及死亡时间变化趋势中[5-6]。本研究通过该模型分析1990—2019年中国HBV感染导致的肝癌发病率及死亡率的长期变化趋势，并计算年变化率（annual percent change, APC）、平均年变化率（average annual percent change, AAPC）及95%可信区间。利用 Joinpoint 5.0.2软件进行 Joinpoint回归分析，采用网络搜索法和 Monte Carlo 置换检验确定最佳连接点个数及位置[7]。P<0.05为差异具有统计学意义。
1.2.2 年龄-时期-队列模型
APC（age-period-cohort,年龄-时期-队列）模型被广泛应用于年龄、时期和队列三者独立因素对肿瘤发病率和死亡率的影响研究中[8]。由于年龄、时期和队列具有完全线性关系，因此存在模型无法识别的问题，本研究采用内生因子估算法解决多重共线性问题[9]。本研究年龄上按照15～19岁、20～24岁、……、80～84岁连续5岁一个年龄段进行划分。时期上按照1990—1994年、……、2015—2019年连续五年一个时期段进行划分。利用R 4.3.1进行建模分析，P<0.05为差异具有统计学意义。
2 结果
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2.1 1990—2019年中国HBV感染导致的肝癌发病率
中国总人群HBV感染导致的肝癌粗发病率从1990年的13.38/10万下降至2019年的9.49/10万，标化发病率从1990年的20.25/10万下降至2019年的8.02/10万。总人群标化发病率AAPC为-3.23%，在2001—2005年下降速度最快, APC为-17.65%。值得注意的是，1990—1995年和2010—2019年发病率呈现上升趋势，APC分别为1.87%和0.92%。男性HBV感染导致的肝癌粗发病率从1990年的21.46/10万下降至2019年的16.14/10万，标化发病率从1990年的32.51/10万下降至2019年的13.82/10万。男性标化发病率AAPC为-2.94%，在2001—2005年下降速度最快, APC为-17.89%。标化发病率在1990—1994年和2010—2019年呈上升趋势, APC分别为2.96%和1.30%。女性HBV感染导致的肝癌粗发病率从1990年的4.79/10万下降至2019年的2.59/10万，标化发病率从1990年的7.24/10万下降至2019年的2.09/10万。女性标化发病率整体下降趋势较男性更为显著，AAPC为-4.24%。其中在2001—2005年下降速度最快，APC为-16.20%。见图1、表1。
2.2 1990—2019年中国HBV感染导致的肝癌死亡率
中国总人群HBV感染导致的肝癌粗死亡率从1990年的12.89/10万下降至2019年的8.23/10万，标化死亡率从1990年的19.71/10万下降至2019年的6.85/10万。总人群标化死亡率AAPC为-3.57%，在2000—2004年下降速度最快, APC为-17.86%。总人群标化死亡率在1990—1996年和2012—2019年呈现上升趋势，APC分别为1.58%和1.03%。男性HBV感染导致的肝癌粗死亡率从1990年的20.59/10万下降至2019年的13.84/10万，标化死亡率从1990年的31.62/10万下降至2019年的11.71/10万。男性标化死亡率AAPC为-3.35%，在2000—2004年下降趋势最快，APC为-18.11%。标化发病率在1990—1996年和2012—2019年呈现上升趋势，APC分别为1.92%和1.34%。女性HBV感染导致的肝癌粗死亡率从1990年的4.71/10万下降至2019年的2.39/10万，标化发病率从1990年的7.19/10万下降至2019年的1.91/10万。女性标化死亡率AAPC为-4.45%，在2000—2004年下降趋势最快，APC为-16.19%。见图2。
2.3 中国HBV感染导致的肝癌年龄-时期-队列模型分析
2.3.1 全局偏移和局部偏移
APC模型检验结果显示，女性的发病率及死亡率净偏移、局部偏移、总年龄偏差、总时期偏差、总队列偏差以及时期和队列效应在本研究中均具有统计学意义(P<0.05)，男性发病率及死亡率总队列偏差和局部偏移无统计学意义。见表2。从净偏移来看，男性HBV感染导致的肝癌发病率及死亡率的净偏移分别为-4.78(-5.31～-4.25）和-5.33(-5.91～-4.74)。女性分别为-6.02(-6.24～-5.81)、-6.47(-6.77～-6.17)。净偏移可以反映发病率及死亡率整体的变化趋势，即男性和女性在整个年龄组发病率及死亡率均呈现下降趋势。从局部偏移来看，女性发病率和死亡率在15～19、20～24、……、80～84各年龄组局部偏移值均小于0，即女性在各年龄组的发病率及死亡率均呈现下降趋势。但男性局部偏移结果无统计学意义。
2.3.2 年龄效应
在校正时期效应和队列效应后，纵向年龄曲线显示，男性和女性发病率及死亡率在年龄分布上均呈现先上升再下降的趋势。男性发病率从15～19岁年龄段的3.32/10万变化到80～84岁年龄段的13.89/10万。50～54岁发病率最高为35.53/10万，随后开始呈现下降趋势。女性发病率从15～19岁年龄段的1.38/10万上升到55～59岁年龄段到达峰值，发病率为5.52/10万，随后呈现下降趋势，降至80～84岁年龄段的2.66/10万。见图3A。
男性死亡率从15～19岁年龄段的2.49/10万上升到50～54岁年龄段的30.76/10万，随后下降到80～84岁年龄段的14.01/10万。女性死亡率从15～19岁年龄段的0.98/10万上升到55～59岁年龄段的4.91/10万，随后下降到80～84岁年龄段的2.82/10万。见图3B。
2.3.3 时期效应
女性发病率、死亡率全时期变化RR(相对危险度，Relative Risk)值均呈现下降趋势。男性发病及死亡率从1990—1994年时期至2010—2014年时期RR值下降，但在2015—2019年时期RR呈现略微增长趋势。
以2000—2004年为参照(RR=1)，男性和女性发病及死亡风险均在1990—1994年时期最高。男性和女性发病在1990—1994年时期RR值分别为1.57(95% CI:1.40～1.77)、1.75(95% CI:1.67～1.83)。见图4A。男性和女性死亡在1990—1994年时期RR值分别为1.68(95% CI:1.49～1.89）、1.86(95% CI:1.77～1.99)。见图4B。
2.3.4 队列效应
在校正年龄效应和时期效应后，男性和女性HBV感染导致的肝癌发病和死亡风险均呈现下降趋势。出生越晚的队列发病及死亡风险越小。以1950—1954年出生队列为参考值(RR=1)。男性发病和死亡风险最高的出生队列均是1910—1914年，对应的RR值分别为6.52和8.13。见图5A。女性发病及死亡的最高的出生队列均是1910—1914年。对应的RR值分别为8.55和10.33。见图5B。
3 讨论
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HBV感染是导致肝癌发病的高风险因素，控制乙肝流行对于肝癌的防控有着至关重要的意义[10]。国内的一项研究表明，在过去的四十年里，我国HBV感染呈现显著的下降趋势[11]。这些成就主要归功于儿童HBV疫苗接种覆盖率不断增高，以及预防母婴传播HBV疫苗的及时接种覆盖率高[3]。
本研究通过年龄-时期-队列模型分析我国HBV感染导致的肝癌发病及死亡趋势。纵向年龄曲线显示，1990—2019年中国男性和女性HBV感染导致的肝癌发病和死亡趋势均随年龄的增长呈现先上升再下降的趋势。男性和女性高发病风险主要集中在40～64岁年龄段,其中男性和女性发病风险分别在50～54岁和55～59岁年龄段达到峰值。我国HBV感染高患病率主要集中在30～60岁人群，且男性患病率高于女性[12]。建议加强对30～60岁人群乙肝疫苗的接种，并重视HBV相关健康行为知识宣讲。此外，建议在HBV感染导致的肝癌发病高风险年龄段加大肝癌的早期筛查。
时期效应结果显示，男性和女性发病风险最高的时期均在1990—1994年。男性和女性1990—1994年的发病风险分别是2015—2019年的2.7倍和3.8倍。这无疑与中国制定的乙肝疫苗免疫规划政策有关，中国从1992年开始将新生儿接种 HBV 疫苗纳入国家免疫规划，但当时疫苗覆盖率不理想。随后，从2002 年开始将新生儿乙肝疫苗进行免费接种，疫苗全部由政府提供。自此，婴儿乙肝疫苗接种的总体覆盖率稳步提高[13]。此外，男性和女性整体死亡风险随时期的增长呈现下降趋势，这主要归功于近些年来肝癌的早期的筛查率及诊疗技术的提高。男性发病及死亡风险在随时期下降的同时，在2015—2019年时期有了略微的增长。虽然疫苗接种和抗病毒疗法的发展显著改善了慢性HBV的长期控制，但慢性HBV患者现在的寿命更长[14]，因此2015—2019年男性发病率和死亡率增加可能是由于男性慢性HBV人口的整体老龄化。
队列效应结果显示，出生越晚的人HBV感染导致的肝癌发病及死亡风险越小。这与国内一些研究结果一致[15-16]。1910—1914年出生的男性和女性发病风险分别是2000—2004年的75倍和167倍。1910—1914年出生的男性和女性死亡风险分别是2000—2004年的127倍和271倍。这主要归功于1990—2019这三十年来中国乙肝疫苗的全面接种，健康教育知识的广泛普及以及医疗卫生条件的提高。
综上所述，1990—2019年中国HBV感染导致的肝癌的粗发病率、粗死亡率、标化发病率和标化死亡率均呈现显著的下降趋势，且女性发病率及死亡率下降速度更快。男性发病率及死亡率远高于女性。男性和女性发病及死亡风险随年龄增长呈现先上升再下降的趋势。男性和女性发病和死亡风险整体在时期和队列效应上呈现下降趋势，但局部有略微的增长。总人群发病率及死亡率在近几年呈现上升趋势，未来HBV感染导致的肝癌问题依然严峻。建议未来在30岁以上人群中扩大乙肝疫苗接种并开展健康教育，宣传良好的健康生活方式和饮食习惯，特别是要注意黄曲霉毒素的影响,不吃霉变食物等。有研究表明黄曲霉毒素暴露与慢性乙型肝炎病毒感染具有协同作用，会增加肝癌的发病率[17]。此外，建议对HBV感染导致的肝癌发病高危年龄组扩大肝癌的早期筛查，遵循早诊早治的原则。一级预防结合二级预防同时开展，争取在未来进一步降低我国HBV感染导致的肝癌发病率及死亡率。
基金
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  • 厦门市医疗卫生重点项目(3502Z20191105)
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2024年第51卷第6期
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202311136
  • 接收时间：2023-11-07
  • 首发时间：2026-03-16
  • 出版时间：2024-03-25
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  • 收稿日期：2023-11-07
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厦门市医疗卫生重点项目(3502Z20191105)
作者信息
    1.厦门大学公共卫生学院，福建 厦门 361102
    2.厦门市疾病预防控制中心
    3.复旦大学附属中山医院厦门医院

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数
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Family		 属数
Number of
genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of
total species (%)		 属
Genus		 种数
Number of
species		 占总种数比例
Percentage of total
species (%)
鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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