Article(id=1228016570442646386, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1228016566646801206, articleNumber=null, orderNo=null, doi=10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202501130, pmid=null, cstr=null, oa=null, hot=null, price=null, onlineType=0, articleFormat=0, articleType=null, articleTypeStr=null, receivedDate=1736265600000, receivedDateStr=2025-01-08, revisedDate=null, revisedDateStr=null, acceptedDate=null, acceptedDateStr=null, onlineDate=1770711565837, onlineDateStr=2026-02-10, pubDate=1758729600000, pubDateStr=2025-09-25, doiRegisterDate=null, doiRegisterDateStr=null, onlineIssueDate=1770711565837, onlineIssueDateStr=2026-02-10, onlineJustAcceptDate=null, onlineJustAcceptDateStr=null, onlineFirstDate=null, onlineFirstDateStr=null, sourceXml=null, magXml=null, createTime=1770711565837, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1770711565837, updator=13701087609, issue=Issue{id=1228016566646801206, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, year='2025', volume='52', issue='18', pageStart='3265', pageEnd='3456', issueExtLink='null', onlineDate='null', pubDate='null', beforeIssueId=null, nextIssueId=null, price=null, status=1, issueComplete=1, articleOrder=1, issueType=-1, specialIssue=null, createTime=1770711564932, creator=13701087609, updateTime=1770711815039, updator=13701087609, preIssue=null, nextIssue=null, ext={EN=IssueExt(id=1228017615784833769, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1228016566646801206, language=EN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=), CN=IssueExt(id=1228017615784833770, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, issueId=1228016566646801206, language=CN, specialIssueTitle=, coverIllustrator=null, specialIssueEditor=, specialIssueAbout=)}, issueFiles=null}, startPage=3346, endPage=3352, ext={EN=ArticleExt(id=1228016572992782360, articleId=1228016570442646386, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, language=EN, title=Association of body mass index, body roundness index, waist circumference, and waist hip ratio with all-cause mortality: a prospective cohort study, columnId=1228016572892119056, journalTitle=Modern Preventive Medicine, columnName=Primary Health Services, runingTitle=null, highlight=null, articleAbstract=
Objective

To explore the association ofbody mass index (BMI), body roundness index (BRI), waist circumference (WC), and waist hip ratio (WHR) with the risk of all-cause mortality in a community-based cohort.

Methods

This study was based on a prospective cohort study conducted in Pudong New Area. Obesity-related indicators were obtained at the baseline survey, mortality data was collectedduring the follow-up period.The associations between BMI, BRI, WC, WHR and the risk of all-cause mortality were assessed using cox proportional hazard model, restricted cubic spline (RCS) regression model, and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve.

Results

A total of 9 448 participants was included in the analysis. The median follow-up time was 10.77 years, during which 987 deaths occurred,the all-cause mortality was 10.08/1 000 person-years.After multi-variable adjustment,the HR(95% CI) of elevated BRI, WC, and WHR were 1.07(1.01-1.14), 1.12(1.05-1.20), and 1.14(1.07-1.21), respectively.There were U-shaped dose-response relationship betweenBMI, BRI, WC and all-cause mortality; and alinear dose-response relationshipbetween WHR and all-cause mortality. BRI had the highest accuracy in predicting all-cause mortality, with the AUC of 0.62(95% CI=0.60-0.64).

Conclusion

Obesity is a significant risk factor for all-cause mortality, proper control of obesity and fat distribution can help reduce the risk of all-cause mortality.

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目的

在社区自然人群队列中探索体质指数(BMI)、体圆指数(BRI)、腰围(WC)和腰臀比(WHR)等肥胖指标与死亡风险的关联。

方法

本研究基于浦东新区慢性病社区人群队列,基线调查获取研究对象肥胖相关指标,收集随访期间的死亡情况,采用cox回归、限制性立方样条(RCS)回归、ROC曲线等方法分析肥胖指标与死亡风险的关联。

结果

纳入分析的人数为9 448人,随访观察中位时间10.77年,期间发生全因死亡987例,研究人群全因死亡密度10.08/1 000人年。经多因素校正后,BRI每增加1个标准差,死亡风险增加7% (HR=1.07, 95%CI: 1.01~1.14);WC每增加1个标准差,死亡风险增加12%(HR=1.12, 95%CI: 1.05~1.20);WHR每增加1个标准差,死亡风险增加14% (HR=1.14; 95%CI: 1.07~1.21)。BMI、BRI、WC与死亡风险呈U型的非线性剂量-反应关系,WHR与死亡风险呈线性的剂量-反应关系。BRI对死亡风险的预测能力优于其它肥胖指标,AUC为0.62(95% CI = 0.60~0.64)。

结论

肥胖是全因死亡的重要危险因素,合理控制体重和脂肪分布有助于提升人群的期望寿命。

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周弋,E-mail:
, copyrightStatement=本刊刊出的所有文章不代表中华预防医学会和本刊编委会的观点,除非特别声明。, copyrightOwner=中华预防医学会和四川大学华西公共卫生学院, extLink=null, articleAbsUrl=null, sourceXml=6Y/0z9rV+JinMJ1HBwRIOg==, magXml=aYLCs+pxEymlgWYmx1+1tQ==, pdfUrl=null, pdf=bm0s7nW9rKYRkstZ5mZ5iQ==, pdfFileSize=1084839, pdfExtLink=null, richHtmlUrl=null, mobilePdfUrl=null, reviewReport=null, pdfFirstPage=null, abstractGraph=419a77KmNM9hE5vWtpJRzA==, abstractGraphContent=null, abstractVideo=null, citation=null, cebUrl=null, magXmlContent=B3Rbu33z+fKLTUN/jG15Sg==, mapNumber=null, authorCompany=null, fund=null, authors=

柯居中(1989—),女,博士,副主任医师,研究方向:慢性病流行病学

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Cell, 2022, 185(3): 419-446., articleTitle=Adipose-tissue plasticity in health and disease, refAbstract=null), Reference(id=1228016584699085545, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1228016570442646386, doi=null, pmid=null, pmcid=null, year=2024, volume=332, issue=16, pageStart=1317, pageEnd=1318, url=null, language=null, rfNumber=[22], rfOrder=24, authorNames=Schweitzer K, journalName=JAMA, refType=null, unstructuredReference=Schweitzer K. Could the body roundness index one day replace the BMI?[J]. JAMA, 2024, 332(16): 1317-1318., articleTitle=Could the body roundness index one day replace the BMI?, refAbstract=null)], funds=[Fund(id=1228016581633049217, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1228016570442646386, awardId=PWRl2024-10, language=CN, fundingSource=浦东新区卫生系统领先人才培养计划(PWRl2024-10), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1228016581716935300, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1228016570442646386, awardId=2024-PWDL-03, language=CN, fundingSource=浦东新区卫生健康委员会研究者发起的临床研究项目(2024-PWDL-03), fundOrder=null, country=null), Fund(id=1228016581884707467, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1228016570442646386, awardId=DXZB-2024-01, language=CN, fundingSource=浦东新区疾病预防控制中心业务研发平台慢性病流行病学(DXZB-2024-01), fundOrder=null, country=null)], companyList=[AuthorCompany(id=1228016575551307989, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1228016570442646386, xref=null, ext=[AuthorCompanyExt(id=1228016575559696599, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1228016570442646386, companyId=1228016575551307989, language=EN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=Shanghai Pudong New Area Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Shanghai Pudong New Area Health Supervision Institute), Shanghai 200136, China), AuthorCompanyExt(id=1228016575572279512, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1228016570442646386, companyId=1228016575551307989, language=CN, country=null, province=null, city=null, postcode=null, companyName=null, departmentName=null, remark=上海市浦东新区疾病预防控制中心(上海市浦东新区卫生健康监督所)慢性病防治科,上海 200136)])], figs=[ArticleFig(id=1228016580097933881, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1228016570442646386, language=EN, label=Fig.1, caption=Diagram of this study, figureFileSmall=QBFJ6d6Y3M66n8W9ShBQGg==, figureFileBig=419a77KmNM9hE5vWtpJRzA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1228016580227957310, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1228016570442646386, language=CN, label=图1, caption=队列构建流程图, figureFileSmall=QBFJ6d6Y3M66n8W9ShBQGg==, figureFileBig=419a77KmNM9hE5vWtpJRzA==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1228016580525752908, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1228016570442646386, language=EN, label=Fig.2, caption=Multivariable adjusted spline curves for association between BMI, BRI, WC, WHR and all-cause mortality risk (A) BMI; (B) BRI; (C) WC; (D) WHR, figureFileSmall=ypIpoGmVRThTZqD+SccuWA==, figureFileBig=qTMr84/4HjMD1eaknlNklg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1228016580634804820, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1228016570442646386, language=CN, label=图2, caption=BMI、BRI、WC、WHR与死亡风险之间的剂量-反应关系 (A) BMI; (B) BRI; (C) WC; (D) WHR

注:校正年龄、性别、婚姻状况、居住地区、是否受教育≥ 9年、是否有吸烟、饮酒、体育活动习惯、是否患高血压、糖尿病、血脂异常、CRP水平。

, figureFileSmall=ypIpoGmVRThTZqD+SccuWA==, figureFileBig=qTMr84/4HjMD1eaknlNklg==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1228016580735468119, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1228016570442646386, language=EN, label=Fig.3, caption=ROC curve of BMI, BRI, WC, and WHR in predicting all-cause mortality risk, figureFileSmall=KCBdboyMxmxNhQv5pq+8/Q==, figureFileBig=G8nhR7eIxkfp647afJXZew==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1228016580827742813, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1228016570442646386, language=CN, label=图3, caption=BMI、BRI、WC、WHR对死亡风险预测能力的 ROC 曲线, figureFileSmall=KCBdboyMxmxNhQv5pq+8/Q==, figureFileBig=G8nhR7eIxkfp647afJXZew==, tableContent=null), ArticleFig(id=1228016580907434594, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1228016570442646386, language=EN, label=Table 1, caption=

Comparison of baseline characteristics between male and female participants

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
特征分类男性(n=3 575)女性(n=5 873)合计(n=9 448)t/Z/χ2P
年龄(岁)-57.82±12.9557.97±12.9257.91±12.930.2830.594
居住地区(%)农村1 505(42.10)2 250(38.31)3 755(39.74)13.308<0.001
城市2 070(57.90)3 623(61.69)5 693(60.26)
婚姻状况(%)在婚3 134(87.66)5 131(87.37)8 265(87.48)0.1810.671
其它441(12.34)742(12.63)1 183(12.52)
受教育年限(%)≥ 9年2 810(78.60)4 628(78.80)7 438(78.73)0.0530.818
<9年765(21.40)1 245(21.20)2 010(21.27)
吸烟(%)2 947(82.43)4 938(84.08)7 885(83.46)4.3620.037
628(17.57)935(15.92)1 563(16.54)
饮酒(%)3 106(86.88)5 208(88.68)8 314(88.00)6.7860.009
469(13.12)665(11.32)1 134(12.00)
体育活动(%)2 769(77.45)4 359(74.22)7 128(75.44)12.542<0.001
806(22.55)1 514(25.78)2 320(24.56)
高血压(%)2 078(58.13)3 494(59.49)5 572(58.98)1.7160.190
1 497(41.87)2 379(40.51)3 876(41.02)
糖尿病(%)2 881(80.59)4 734(80.61)7 615(80.60)2.6110.271
384(19.41)674(19.39)1 058(19.40)
血脂异常(%)1 835(51.33)3 066(52.21)4 901(51.87)0.6840.408
1 740(48.67)2 807(47.79)4 547(48.13)
BMI(kg/m2)-25.13±3.5224.95±3.6325.02±3.595.5590.018
BRI-3.74±1.153.68±1.163.70±1.167.0980.008
WC(cm)-83.10±9.5282.42±9.5082.68±9.5211.0870.001
WHR-0.87±0.060.86±0.070.87±0.075.4250.020
FPG(mmol/L)-5.47(5.10,6.06)5.48(5.08,6.11)5.47(5.09,6.09)0.0440.965
2hPG(mmol/L)-6.07(5.05,7.51)6.03(5.06,7.38)6.05(5.06,7.44)1.2710.204
HbA1c(%)-5.40(4.90,6.00)5.40(4.90,6.00)5.40(4.90,6.00)0.4180.676
TG(mmol/L)-1.37(0.95,2.00)1.35(0.95,1.98)1.36(0.95,1.99)1.0800.280
TC(mmol/L)-5.49(4.80,6.24)5.48(4.73,6.22)5.48(4.75,6.23)1.0310.303
HDL(mmol/L)-1.33(1.14,1.56)1.33(1.13,1.57)1.33(1.13,1.57)0.1120.910
LDL(mmol/L)-3.08(2.42,3.75)3.06(2.42,3.74)3.07(2.42,3.75)0.6730.501
CRP(mg/L)-0.26(0.08,0.95)0.24(0.07,0.91)0.25(0.07,0.93)1.9770.048
), ArticleFig(id=1228016581020680808, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1228016570442646386, language=CN, label=表1, caption=

研究对象的基线资料

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
特征分类男性(n=3 575)女性(n=5 873)合计(n=9 448)t/Z/χ2P
年龄(岁)-57.82±12.9557.97±12.9257.91±12.930.2830.594
居住地区(%)农村1 505(42.10)2 250(38.31)3 755(39.74)13.308<0.001
城市2 070(57.90)3 623(61.69)5 693(60.26)
婚姻状况(%)在婚3 134(87.66)5 131(87.37)8 265(87.48)0.1810.671
其它441(12.34)742(12.63)1 183(12.52)
受教育年限(%)≥ 9年2 810(78.60)4 628(78.80)7 438(78.73)0.0530.818
<9年765(21.40)1 245(21.20)2 010(21.27)
吸烟(%)2 947(82.43)4 938(84.08)7 885(83.46)4.3620.037
628(17.57)935(15.92)1 563(16.54)
饮酒(%)3 106(86.88)5 208(88.68)8 314(88.00)6.7860.009
469(13.12)665(11.32)1 134(12.00)
体育活动(%)2 769(77.45)4 359(74.22)7 128(75.44)12.542<0.001
806(22.55)1 514(25.78)2 320(24.56)
高血压(%)2 078(58.13)3 494(59.49)5 572(58.98)1.7160.190
1 497(41.87)2 379(40.51)3 876(41.02)
糖尿病(%)2 881(80.59)4 734(80.61)7 615(80.60)2.6110.271
384(19.41)674(19.39)1 058(19.40)
血脂异常(%)1 835(51.33)3 066(52.21)4 901(51.87)0.6840.408
1 740(48.67)2 807(47.79)4 547(48.13)
BMI(kg/m2)-25.13±3.5224.95±3.6325.02±3.595.5590.018
BRI-3.74±1.153.68±1.163.70±1.167.0980.008
WC(cm)-83.10±9.5282.42±9.5082.68±9.5211.0870.001
WHR-0.87±0.060.86±0.070.87±0.075.4250.020
FPG(mmol/L)-5.47(5.10,6.06)5.48(5.08,6.11)5.47(5.09,6.09)0.0440.965
2hPG(mmol/L)-6.07(5.05,7.51)6.03(5.06,7.38)6.05(5.06,7.44)1.2710.204
HbA1c(%)-5.40(4.90,6.00)5.40(4.90,6.00)5.40(4.90,6.00)0.4180.676
TG(mmol/L)-1.37(0.95,2.00)1.35(0.95,1.98)1.36(0.95,1.99)1.0800.280
TC(mmol/L)-5.49(4.80,6.24)5.48(4.73,6.22)5.48(4.75,6.23)1.0310.303
HDL(mmol/L)-1.33(1.14,1.56)1.33(1.13,1.57)1.33(1.13,1.57)0.1120.910
LDL(mmol/L)-3.08(2.42,3.75)3.06(2.42,3.74)3.07(2.42,3.75)0.6730.501
CRP(mg/L)-0.26(0.08,0.95)0.24(0.07,0.91)0.25(0.07,0.93)1.9770.048
), ArticleFig(id=1228016581117149805, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1228016570442646386, language=EN, label=Table 2, caption=

Mortality of study participants during follow-up

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性别根本死因人数人年数死亡人数累积死亡率
(%)
死亡密度
(1/1 000人年)
男性心脑血管疾病3 57537 0021554.344.19
癌症3 57537 0021273.553.43
其它疾病3 57537 0021052.942.84
男性合计3 57537 00238710.8310.46
女性心脑血管疾病5 87360 8882584.394.24
癌症5 87360 8881682.862.76
其它疾病5 87360 8881742.962.86
女性合计5 87360 88860010.229.85
合计心脑血管疾病9 44897 8904134.374.22
癌症9 44897 8902953.123.01
其它疾病9 44897 8902792.952.85
合计9 44897 89098710.4510.08
), ArticleFig(id=1228016581242978931, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1228016570442646386, language=CN, label=表2, caption=

研究对象随访期间的死亡情况

, figureFileSmall=null, figureFileBig=null, tableContent=
性别根本死因人数人年数死亡人数累积死亡率
(%)
死亡密度
(1/1 000人年)
男性心脑血管疾病3 57537 0021554.344.19
癌症3 57537 0021273.553.43
其它疾病3 57537 0021052.942.84
男性合计3 57537 00238710.8310.46
女性心脑血管疾病5 87360 8882584.394.24
癌症5 87360 8881682.862.76
其它疾病5 87360 8881742.962.86
女性合计5 87360 88860010.229.85
合计心脑血管疾病9 44897 8904134.374.22
癌症9 44897 8902953.123.01
其它疾病9 44897 8902792.952.85
合计9 44897 89098710.4510.08
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Association between BMI, BRI, WC, WHR and risk forall-cause mortality

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特征单因素分析多因素分析
Wald χ2HR(95% CI)PWald χ2HR(95% CI)P
BMI4.7651.07(1.01~1.14)0.0290.2411.02(0.95~1.09)0.623
BRI201.0271.46(1.39~1.54)<0.0015.3831.07(1.01~1.14)0.020
WC115.6461.38(1.30~1.46)<0.00112.2521.12(1.05~1.20)<0.001
WHR164.8791.29(1.24~1.34)<0.00115.8531.14(1.07~1.21)<0.001
), ArticleFig(id=1228016581498831484, tenantId=1146029695717560320, journalId=1227665162245664772, articleId=1228016570442646386, language=CN, label=表3, caption=

BMI、BRI、WC、WHR与死亡风险之间的关联

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特征单因素分析多因素分析
Wald χ2HR(95% CI)PWald χ2HR(95% CI)P
BMI4.7651.07(1.01~1.14)0.0290.2411.02(0.95~1.09)0.623
BRI201.0271.46(1.39~1.54)<0.0015.3831.07(1.01~1.14)0.020
WC115.6461.38(1.30~1.46)<0.00112.2521.12(1.05~1.20)<0.001
WHR164.8791.29(1.24~1.34)<0.00115.8531.14(1.07~1.21)<0.001
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社区居民不同肥胖指标与死亡风险关联的队列研究
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柯居中 , 吴抗 , 刘晓琳 , 邱桦 , 王小楠 , 李智韬 , 阮晓楠 , 周弋
现代预防医学 | 基层卫生服务 2025,52(18): 3346-3352
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现代预防医学 | 基层卫生服务 2025, 52(18): 3346-3352
社区居民不同肥胖指标与死亡风险关联的队列研究
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柯居中, 吴抗, 刘晓琳, 邱桦, 王小楠, 李智韬, 阮晓楠, 周弋
作者信息
  • 上海市浦东新区疾病预防控制中心(上海市浦东新区卫生健康监督所)慢性病防治科,上海 200136
  • 柯居中(1989—),女,博士,副主任医师,研究方向:慢性病流行病学

通讯作者:

周弋,E-mail:
Association of body mass index, body roundness index, waist circumference, and waist hip ratio with all-cause mortality: a prospective cohort study
Ju-zhong KE, Kang WU, Xiao-lin LIU, Hua QIU, Xiao-nan WANG, Zhi-tao LI, Xiao-nan RUAN, Yi ZHOU
Affiliations
  • Shanghai Pudong New Area Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Shanghai Pudong New Area Health Supervision Institute), Shanghai 200136, China
出版时间: 2025-09-25 doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202501130
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目的

在社区自然人群队列中探索体质指数(BMI)、体圆指数(BRI)、腰围(WC)和腰臀比(WHR)等肥胖指标与死亡风险的关联。

方法

本研究基于浦东新区慢性病社区人群队列,基线调查获取研究对象肥胖相关指标,收集随访期间的死亡情况,采用cox回归、限制性立方样条(RCS)回归、ROC曲线等方法分析肥胖指标与死亡风险的关联。

结果

纳入分析的人数为9 448人,随访观察中位时间10.77年,期间发生全因死亡987例,研究人群全因死亡密度10.08/1 000人年。经多因素校正后,BRI每增加1个标准差,死亡风险增加7% (HR=1.07, 95%CI: 1.01~1.14);WC每增加1个标准差,死亡风险增加12%(HR=1.12, 95%CI: 1.05~1.20);WHR每增加1个标准差,死亡风险增加14% (HR=1.14; 95%CI: 1.07~1.21)。BMI、BRI、WC与死亡风险呈U型的非线性剂量-反应关系,WHR与死亡风险呈线性的剂量-反应关系。BRI对死亡风险的预测能力优于其它肥胖指标,AUC为0.62(95% CI = 0.60~0.64)。

结论

肥胖是全因死亡的重要危险因素,合理控制体重和脂肪分布有助于提升人群的期望寿命。

体质指数  /  体圆指数  /  腰围  /  腰臀比  /  死亡风险
Objective

To explore the association ofbody mass index (BMI), body roundness index (BRI), waist circumference (WC), and waist hip ratio (WHR) with the risk of all-cause mortality in a community-based cohort.

Methods

This study was based on a prospective cohort study conducted in Pudong New Area. Obesity-related indicators were obtained at the baseline survey, mortality data was collectedduring the follow-up period.The associations between BMI, BRI, WC, WHR and the risk of all-cause mortality were assessed using cox proportional hazard model, restricted cubic spline (RCS) regression model, and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve.

Results

A total of 9 448 participants was included in the analysis. The median follow-up time was 10.77 years, during which 987 deaths occurred,the all-cause mortality was 10.08/1 000 person-years.After multi-variable adjustment,the HR(95% CI) of elevated BRI, WC, and WHR were 1.07(1.01-1.14), 1.12(1.05-1.20), and 1.14(1.07-1.21), respectively.There were U-shaped dose-response relationship betweenBMI, BRI, WC and all-cause mortality; and alinear dose-response relationshipbetween WHR and all-cause mortality. BRI had the highest accuracy in predicting all-cause mortality, with the AUC of 0.62(95% CI=0.60-0.64).

Conclusion

Obesity is a significant risk factor for all-cause mortality, proper control of obesity and fat distribution can help reduce the risk of all-cause mortality.

Body mass index  /  Body roundness index  /  Waist circumference  /  Waist hip ratio  /  All-cause mortality
柯居中, 吴抗, 刘晓琳, 邱桦, 王小楠, 李智韬, 阮晓楠, 周弋. 社区居民不同肥胖指标与死亡风险关联的队列研究. 现代预防医学, 2025 , 52 (18) : 3346 -3352 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202501130
Ju-zhong KE, Kang WU, Xiao-lin LIU, Hua QIU, Xiao-nan WANG, Zhi-tao LI, Xiao-nan RUAN, Yi ZHOU. Association of body mass index, body roundness index, waist circumference, and waist hip ratio with all-cause mortality: a prospective cohort study[J]. Modern Preventive Medicine, 2025 , 52 (18) : 3346 -3352 . DOI: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202501130
肥胖是多种慢性病的重要危险因素,影响居民健康水平和期望寿命。近年来,心脑血管疾病等慢性病导致的期望寿命损失持续升高,探索与死亡风险相关性最好的肥胖指标有重要的公共卫生意义[1]。体质指数(BMI)是最为经典的检测肥胖的指标。但既往有研究发现BMI超重或肥胖的人群心脑血管疾病和癌症的死亡风险低于BMI正常人群,称为“肥胖悖论”[2-3]。原因可能是BMI无法准确反映体内脂肪、肌肉和骨骼的比重以及分布情况。腰围(WC)、腰臀比(WHR)和腹部脂肪累积以及心脑血管疾病风险有很好的相关性,常被用来反映是否患有中心性肥胖,但容易受到身高差异的影响[4]。有学者提出体圆指数(BRI)能够更准确的评估体脂和内脏脂肪组织的比例,从而减少肥胖的错误分类[5]。已有不少研究认为BRI与冠心病、糖尿病等慢性病都有显著的关联[6-7]。然而,目前国内尚比较缺乏在社区自然人群中探索和比较不同肥胖指标与死亡风险之间关联的研究。
因此,本研究基于上海市浦东新区社区自然人群慢性病队列,探讨社区自然人群的BMI、BRI、WC、WHR等肥胖指标与死亡风险间的关联,以及它们对死亡风险的预测作用,为居民合理控制肥胖,从而改善期望寿命和生命质量提供科学依据。
本研究基线调查开展时间为2013年1—7月,采用三阶段分层随机抽样在浦东新区的36个街镇选取研究对象[8]。第一阶段根据经济水平将各街道/镇分为好、中、差3层,每层随机抽取4个,共计12个街道/镇。第二阶段在抽取的街道/镇的352个居委/村委中随机抽取34个居委/村委。第三阶段在抽取的居委/村委中用随机数字表确定第一户调查家庭的门牌号,随后按门牌号从小到大依次以家庭为单位开展调查。纳入标准为年龄15岁及以上、愿意配合现场调查、一年内无迁出或长期外出计划的社区常住居民。本研究通过上海市浦东新区疾病预防控制中心(上海市浦东新区卫生健康监督所)伦理委员会的审核(批件号:PDCDCLL-20250508-011),研究对象在基线调查时全部签署了知情同意书。参与研究的10 657人中,排除问卷相关信息存在缺失的126人,实验室检测信息存在缺失的850人,以及失访的233人,最终纳入分析数据集的人数为9 448人,见图1
基线调查的资料收集方式包括面对面问卷调查、现场身体测量、生物样本采集和实验室检测。面对面问卷调查收集婚姻状况、受教育水平、吸烟、饮酒、体育活动、慢性病患病情况等信息。身体测量收集身高、体重、WC、臀围、血压等信息,对于基线调查血压异常升高者在一个月内完成两次血压高值跟踪测量。生物样本的实验室检测(仪器:日立HITACHI 7170A)包括血糖相关指标:空腹血糖(FPG)、餐后2小时血糖(2hPG),血脂相关指标:空腹总胆固醇(TC)、空腹甘油三酯(TG)、空腹高密度脂蛋白胆固醇(HDL)、空腹低密度脂蛋白胆固醇(LDL),以及C-反应蛋白(CRP)等指标。
包括调查前准备阶段、现场调查阶段、资料整理阶段的质量控制。调查前准备阶段的质量控制:调查表统一印刷,调查物资统一采购,调查员统一培训考核。现场调查阶段的质量控制:每日身体测量前先进行仪器校正,生物样本现场收集后冷藏保存和冷链运输,由上海市临床检验鉴定合格的综合性医院实验室检测,每日检测前先进行化学质控品检测。资料整理阶段的质量控制:对所有的调查问卷进行填写质量核查、双轨录入和逻辑校验,数据清理时对缺失值、逻辑错误和异常值进行标记并返还修改,循环直至定稿最终数据库。
BRI根据TG和FPG计算,BRI=364.2-365.5×{1-[(WC/2p)/(0.5×身高)]2}0.5[5]。高血压定义为自报高血压患者,或在未服用降压药的情况下,非同日3次测量,收缩压≥140 mmHg,和(或)舒张压≥90 mmHg。糖尿病定义为自报糖尿病患者,或FPG≥7.0 mmol/L,或2hPG≥11.1 mmol/L。血脂异常定义为自报血脂异常患者,或TC≥6.22 mmol/L,或LDL≥4.14 mmol/L,或HDL<1.04 mmol/L,或TG≥2.26 mmol/L。吸烟定义为曾经每日至少吸1支烟,持续6个月以上。饮酒定义为曾经每周至少饮酒3次、持续6个月以上。体育活动定义为每周至少有1次中等强度(稍费力,心率稍加快,有一点出汗)或高强度(很费力,心率明显加快,有较多出汗)的体育活动。
基线调查后,随访研究对象至2023年12月31日,终点事件为全因死亡,终点时间为随访的截止日期或研究对象的死亡日期。通过与浦东新区死因登记数据库比对,来确定研究对象的结局信息。
统计分析采用SAS 9.4和SPSS 22.0软件完成。采用MP25,P75)或n(%)对满足正态分布的计量资料、不满足正态分布的计量资料和计数资料分别进行描述。采用t检验、秩和检验、χ2检验分别进行组间比较。用Z分对BMI、BRI、WC、WHR作正态性转换,代替原始变量纳入cox回归模型,分析肥胖与死亡风险的关联,并计算HR(95% CI),Z分=(变量测量值—均数)/标准差。肥胖与死亡风险之间的剂量-反应关系分析采用限制性立方样条(RCS)回归,以连续变量形式将BMI、BRI、WC、WHR代入模型,并计算PP非线性。BMI、BRI、WC、WHR对死亡风险的预测能力采用绘制 ROC 曲线及计算曲线下面积(AUC)进行比较。检验水准α=0.05。
本研究共纳入9 448名社区居民,其中男性3 575人,女性5 873人。研究对象的基线资料见表1。男性和女性的基线居住地区、吸烟、饮酒、体育活动情况、BMI、BRI、WC、WHR、CRP水平存在差异(P<0.05),男性吸烟率、饮酒率、BMI、BRI、WC、WHR、CRP水平高于女性,城市人口比例、体育活动率低于女性。
队列随访观察中位时间10.77年(P25~P75:10.69~10.81年),合计97 890人年。期间共记录到全因死亡987例,研究人群全因累积死亡率10.45%,全因死亡密度10.08/1 000人年,性别间差异无统计学意义(c2=0.881,P>0.05)。研究人群的根本死因顺位为心脑血管疾病(413例,41.84%),其次为癌症(295例,29.89%)和其它疾病(279例,28.27%)。见表2
BMI、BRI、WC、WHR与死亡风险的关联分析结果见表3。单因素分析结果说明,BMI、BRI、WC、WHR与死亡风险有关,校正多个可能的混杂因素后,BRI、WC、WHR与死亡风险的关联仍然存在,BRI、WC、WHR每增加1个标准差,死亡风险增加的HR (95% CI)分别为1.07(1.01~1.14)、1.12(1.05~1.20)和1.14(1.07~1.21),BMI与死亡风险的关联无统计学意义。RCS回归分析结果见图2,校正多个可能的混杂因素后,BMI、BRI、WC与死亡风险呈U型的非线性剂量-反应关系,BMI过低或过高者死亡风险都会增加(P<0.001, P非线性<0.001),BRI过高者死亡风险增加(P=0.008, P非线性=0.035),WC过高者死亡风险增加(P<0.001, P非线性=0.037);WHR与死亡风险的关联总体呈现出线性的剂量-反应关系,WHR过高者死亡风险增加(P<0.001, P非线性=0.294)。
绘制BMI、BRI、WC、WHR对死亡风险预测能力的 ROC 曲线,结果显示,各肥胖指标中,BRI对死亡风险预测能力最高,AUC为0.62(95% CI=0.60~0.64),识别死亡风险的约登指数为0.187,截断值为3.76,WHR对死亡风险预测能力的AUC为0.60(95% CI=0.58~0.62),WC、BMI对死亡风险预测能力的AUC均<0.60,见图3
本研究显示,社区人群的死亡风险随着BRI、WC、WHR的增加而增加。不同肥胖指标与死亡风险之间的剂量-反应关系不同,BMI、BRI、WC与死亡风险呈非线性剂量-反应关系,WHR与死亡风险呈线性剂量-反应关系。BRI对死亡风险预测能力最高,优于其它几种肥胖指标。本研究的发现可为合理控制肥胖,降低社区人群死亡风险提供依据。
本研究发现肥胖人群死亡风险升高,BMI、BRI、WC与死亡风险呈现出U型的剂量-反应关系。既往多项研究报道过类似的非线性关联。一项对于30个队列研究的系统综述报道,BMI与死亡风险之间呈现U型的剂量-反应关系,且随访观察时间可能会影响剂量-反应关系曲线的最低点[9]。在中国人群中开展的动态队列研究显示BRI与全因死亡风险和心脑血管疾病死亡风险的关联呈U型的剂量-反应关系,BRI在3.60处全因死亡风险最低[10]。基于美国健康与营养调查20年随访调查数据的研究显示,BRI与死亡风险之间呈U型剂量-反应关系,BRI可以作为无创筛查工具预测成年人的死亡风险[11]。消瘦人群死亡风险增加可能是由于疾病诊断延迟引起的残余误差[9]。肥胖人群死亡风险增加可能是由于脂肪细胞的增殖和肥大破坏了脂肪组织的完整性,影响代谢稳态,进而造成全身低水平炎症和胰岛素抵抗[12]。此外,脂肪积蓄可引起组织纤维化和细胞因子分泌失调等一系列反应,增加慢性病死亡风险[13]
值得注意的是,本研究中BMI与死亡风险的关联也存在“肥胖悖论”现象,cox回归分析结果BMI升高与死亡风险的关联无统计学意义,RCS回归分析结果BMI与死亡风险之间呈现U型的剂量-反应关系,且BMI在超重范围内的人群死亡风险最低。多项随访研究报道了类似的结果,中老年女性高血压患者中,与BMI正常组对比,消瘦组全因死亡风险增加,而超重肥胖组全因死亡风险降低[14]。中老年人群BMI与癌症发病风险呈U型关联,BMI在26 kg/m2左右时癌症发病风险最低[15]。低BMI水平的慢性阻塞性肺疾病患者生存率低于超重人群[16]。“肥胖悖论”现象可能与BMI对健康影响的剂量-反应关系曲线特点有关,极低或极高的BMI都会带来健康危害。此外,BMI不能很好的体现体脂的含量和分布情况,可能也会影响相关的研究结果。
本研究结果显示,与BMI、WC、WHR相比,BRI水平对于预测死亡风险的诊断准确性最高,与多项开展不同肥胖指标对于慢性疾病预测能力比较的研究结论一致。在美国人群中,BRI作为独立的代谢综合征危险因素,对于代谢综合征发病风险的预测能力优于其它肥胖指标[17]。与BMI和WC相比,BRI与心脏代谢危险因素累积显著相关,且有更好的预测能力[18]。BRI在高血压人群中对于糖尿病风险的预测能力优于BMI、WC、WHR等指标[19]。原因可能是由于不同部位的脂肪积蓄造成的健康危害不同,与皮下脂肪和肝脏脂肪相比,腹部内脏脂肪组织与肥胖相关并发症的相关性更强[20]。内脏脂肪的积聚往往与胰岛素抵抗和心脏代谢疾病风险上升相关,即使在体重正常范围的人群中也是如此[21]。内脏脂肪的含量需要通过计算机断层扫描测定,在实际应用中,需要一个简单易测的反映内脏脂肪的替代指标。BRI综合考虑了身高和WC,对体内脂肪含量和分布,特别是腹部脂肪的描绘更为合理,与不良健康结局的关联更为紧密[22]。相比于BMI等传统指标,BRI能更准确的反映内脏脂肪积蓄情况,评估BRI相关的死亡风险可能有助于精准的临床和公共卫生决策[11]
本研究是在浦东新区社区自然人群中,通过多阶段分层抽样获得研究人群并开展的前瞻性队列研究。浦东新区人口数上海市之最,且地域广阔、人口老龄化明显,具有中国经济快速发展地区代表性,研究结果对于推广到上海市、乃至中国东部地区人群都有较强的公共卫生指导意义。本研究的不足之处包括:队列的中位随访观察时间10.77年,仍不足以充分观察肥胖对死亡风险的长期影响;基线调查时未进行去脂 BMI指数、肌肉含量等身体成分测量,不能提供更多的体成分信息;未考虑饮食习惯、心理社会因素等混杂因素对死亡风险的影响;未考虑随访期间的体成分波动大小和变化趋势对死亡风险的影响。
综上所述,肥胖是全因死亡的重要危险因素,BMI、BRI、WC与死亡风险呈非线性剂量-反应关系,WHR与死亡风险呈线性剂量-反应关系。BRI对死亡风险的预测能力优于BMI等传统肥胖指标。合理控制体重和脂肪分布有助于预防全因死亡,提升人群期望寿命。
  • 浦东新区卫生系统领先人才培养计划(PWRl2024-10)
  • 浦东新区卫生健康委员会研究者发起的临床研究项目(2024-PWDL-03)
  • 浦东新区疾病预防控制中心业务研发平台慢性病流行病学(DXZB-2024-01)
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doi: 10.20043/j.cnki.MPM.202501130
  • 接收时间:2025-01-08
  • 首发时间:2026-02-10
  • 出版时间:2025-09-25
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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-08
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浦东新区卫生系统领先人才培养计划(PWRl2024-10)
浦东新区卫生健康委员会研究者发起的临床研究项目(2024-PWDL-03)
浦东新区疾病预防控制中心业务研发平台慢性病流行病学(DXZB-2024-01)
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    上海市浦东新区疾病预防控制中心(上海市浦东新区卫生健康监督所)慢性病防治科,上海 200136

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2种不同金属材料的力学参数

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鹅膏菌科Amanitaceae 2 11 5.26 鹅膏菌属 Amanita 10 4.78
小菇科 Mycenaceae 2 12 5.74 丝盖伞属 Inocybe 5 2.39
多孔菌科 Polyporaceae 8 14 6.70 蜡蘑属 Laccaria 5 2.39
红菇科 Russulaceae 3 23 11.00 小皮伞属 Marasmius 6 2.87
小菇属 Mycena 11 5.26
光柄菇属 Pluteus 5 2.39
红菇属 Russula 17 8.13
栓菌属 Trametes 5 2.39
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